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The US president is hardly unique in saying the risk of a nuclear “Armageddon” is higher now than it has been since the Cuban missile crisis – or as it is known in Russia, the Caribbean crisis.

Anyone who has thought for more than five seconds about Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats given the geopolitical state of play would conclude the same and indeed, it is a staple comment across Russian state TV.

And though the Russian president’s assertion that “this is not a bluff” is the kind of statement you make when you’re bluffing, Russia’s nuclear arsenal should be taken seriously. That is why it’s there.

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Clearly, US officials are, which is why they have reportedly been making firm comments behind closed doors to their Russian counterparts that a nuclear strike is the worst of all possible ideas and that retaliation would be decisive.

At their core, the power of nuclear weapons lies in their ability to persuade the opposing party to do or not to do something, that is the very nature of deterrence.

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Russia ‘keeping nuclear debate going’

Actually putting them to use in any capacity, tactical or strategic, has undeterminable benefits and escalation risks which are in all likelihood impossible to control and potentially catastrophic for all concerned.

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At a very basic level, the wind might blow in Russia’s direction, Vladimir Putin would lose his friends in China and India, and a Western conventional retaliatory strike might knock out Russian infrastructure President Putin needs to keep his country going and his people on side.

The question is whether Vladimir Putin, who celebrates his 70th birthday this Friday, is thinking rationally about any of that.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows for a first-strike nuclear attack only if the very existence of the state is deemed at risk. It is a high bar. Ukraine has already struck targets in illegally annexed Crimea and in the Russian border town of Belgorod.

The Kremlin seems to have preferred not to make too big a deal out of it. Although this latest round of annexations means that Russia can claim these four territories of Eastern Ukraine as its own and therefore that any Ukrainian attack is a strike on the Russian state, it is a stretch to claim that as existential and a road that Russia has so far chosen not to travel.

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What is a tactical nuclear weapon?

Nor does Russia appear to have moved to take any of its nuclear warheads out of central storage and unite the payload with the means of delivery.

So far, its nuclear threats are just that – threats. There is still a long way to go in the way of signalling and warnings before we reach actual Armageddon.

And although Russia may be losing ground on the battlefield, it does still have other options beyond continuing to hammer it out in Donbas and Kherson.

Why hasn’t it taken out targets in Kyiv, for example, since the early days of the war? What about other forms of hybrid warfare (continuing to) target energy infrastructure in Ukraine and beyond? Vladimir Putin is a master of those dark arts. A nuclear strike, one would hope, would be his weapon of last resort.

Read more:
Biden warns world is facing biggest threat of nuclear ‘Armageddon’ since Cuban missile crisis

Russian RS-24 Yars ballistic missiles roll in Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia, June 2020. Pic: AP
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Russian RS-24 Yars ballistic missiles roll in Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia, June 2020. Pic: AP

The talk now in Russia is moving increasingly towards the Kremlin’s willingness to talk. The proposition seems to be – let’s discuss ending this now with Russia claiming a huge chunk of Eastern Ukraine as its own and there is the threat of tactical nuclear weapons if you don’t or if NATO troops get involved.

Ukraine’s president is understandably not convinced. Volodymyr Zelenskky wants his country back, whole. He is not the one thinking about potential off-ramps for Vladimir Putin, he’s thinking about winning.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy poses for a picture after an interview with Reuters, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Kyiv, Ukraine September 16, 2022. REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
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Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskky
At least two people have been killed after Russian forces shelled Ukraine's southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia, the region's governor Oleksandr Starukh has said.
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Ukraine’s southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia

Which is why it is so important that the US president is.

As Joe Biden put it in comments overheard by reporters, he’s trying to figure out where Mr Putin finds a way out where he “does not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia”.

Read more: What nuclear weapons does Russia have?

The trouble is it is incredibly hard to determine what that is and by raising the rhetorical stakes, Vladimir Putin appears to be backing himself increasingly into a corner. The prospects are deeply worrying.

In an interview with Sky News, Russian lawmaker and TV host Evgeny Popov insisted Russia would never make the first strike.

“Using a nuclear weapon in the 21st century is an insane decision. We are not insane and we hope you are not either.”

Let’s hope Vladimir Putin feels the same.

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IS flag linked to deadly New Orleans attack is stark reminder dangerous extremist Islamist ideology never went away

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IS flag linked to deadly New Orleans attack is stark reminder dangerous extremist Islamist ideology never went away

An Islamic State flag attached to the pickup truck used to kill and injure dozens of people in New Orleans is a grim reminder of the persistent threat posed by Islamist extremism.

Investigators are rushing to understand why Shamsud-Din Jabbar, 42, the US citizen and army veteran who is suspected of carrying out the atrocity in the early hours of New Year’s Day, appears to have been inspired by the terrorist group, also known as ISIS.

A key question will be establishing whether he was self-radicalised by the terrorist group’s extreme ideology – or whether there was any kind of direction or enabling from actual IS members or other radicalised individuals.

The FBI initially said they did not believe the man, who was killed in a shootout with police after ploughing his rental truck into his victims in one of the United States’ worst acts of terrorism, had acted alone.

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But President Joe Biden later said that the “situation is very fluid”, and with the investigation continuing, “no one should jump to conclusions”.

He also revealed that the suspect had posted videos on social media mere hours before the attack indicating that he “was inspired by ISIS”.

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President Joe Biden said Jabbar was ‘inspired by ISIS’

Whatever caused Jabbar to commit such carnage, his murderous rampage and the use of the IS flag underline the danger still posed by extremist Islamist ideology five years after the physical dismantling of Islamic State’s self-proclaimed caliphate in Iraq and Syria.

Shamsud-Din Jabbar. Pic: FBI
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Shamsud-Din Jabbar. Pic: FBI

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President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly described how his administration “defeated ISIS” during his first term as president.

It is true that the US-led coalition against Islamic State helped Iraqi and Syrian Kurdish forces recapture swathes of territory that had fallen under IS control.

The US military also carried out a raid in October 2019 that killed Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the then head of Islamic State.

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

But his extremist ideology that drove tens of thousands of fighters to pledge their allegiance to Islamic State – carrying out horrific acts of murder, torture and kidnap of anyone who did not follow their warped interpretation of Sunni Islam – has never gone away.

Many of the group’s fighters have been captured and are held in camps and detention centres in northern Syria, but their fate is looking increasingly uncertain following the collapse of the regime of Bashar al-Assad at the hands of another Sunni Islamist militant group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which was once aligned with Islamic State.

Ahmed al-Sharaa, the HTS leader turned de facto ruler of Syria, has sought to distance his group from their past links with Islamist extremism.

But HTS is still considered a terrorist entity by the UK, the US and other western powers.

Experts fear that events in Syria may inspire sympathisers and supporters of Islamic State across the world to carry out new attacks.

It is far too soon to link specific events like the toppling of the Assad regime to the bloodshed on the streets of New Orleans.

But security officials, including the head of MI5, have long been warning about a resurgent threat from Islamic State and al-Qaeda.

In a speech in October, Ken McCallum spelt out the terrorist trend that concerns him most: “The worsening threat from al-Qaeda and in particular from Islamic State”.

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Agnes Keleti: Holocaust survivor and oldest living Olympic medallist dies at the age of 103

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Agnes Keleti: Holocaust survivor and oldest living Olympic medallist dies at the age of 103

A Holocaust survivor and the oldest living Olympic medal winner has died at the age of 103.

Agnes Keleti died on Thursday morning in Budapest after she was hospitalised with pneumonia on Christmas Day, the Hungarian state news agency reported.

Regarded as one of the most successful Jewish Olympic athletes, Ms Keleti won 10 medals in gymnastics, including five golds, for Hungary at the 1952 Helsinki Games and the 1956 Melbourne Games.

When celebrating her 100th birthday, she said: “These 100 years felt to me like 60. I live well. And I love life. It’s great that I’m still healthy.”

Agnes Keleti, former Olympic gold medal winning gymnast, reacts to fireworks going off on her birthday cake in Budapest, Hungary Monday Jan. 4, 2021. The oldest living Olympic champion turns 100 and says the fondest memory of her remarkable life is simply that she has lived through it all. Keleti had her illustrious career interrupted by World War II and the subsequent cancellation of the 1940 and 1944 Olympics. (AP Photo/Laszlo Balogh)
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Ms Keleti celebrating her 100th birthday. Pic: AP

Born Agnes Klein in 1921 in Budapest, her career was interrupted by the Second World War and the cancellation of the 1940 and 1944 Olympics.

Ms Keleti was forced off her gymnastics team in 1941 due to her Jewish ancestry.

She later went into hiding in the Hungarian countryside, where she survived the Holocaust by assuming a false identity and working as a maid.

Her mother and sister survived the war with the help of famed Swedish diplomat Raoul Wallenberg, but her father and other relatives died at Auschwitz concentration camp.

More than half a million Hungarian Jews were murdered in Nazi death camps and by Hungarian Nazi collaborators during the war.

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Two children among 12 killed in shootout after bar fight

Agnes Keleti, former Olympic gold medal winning gymnast, gestures next to her next to her five gold medals in Budapest, Hungary Monday Jan. 4, 2021. The oldest living Olympic champion turns 100 and says the fondest memory of her remarkable life is simply that she has lived through it all. Keleti had her illustrious career interrupted by World War II and the subsequent cancellation of the 1940 and 1944 Olympics. (AP Photo/Laszlo Balogh)
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Ms Keleti with her five gold medals. Pic: AP

After the war, Ms Keleti was unable to compete in the 1948 London Olympics due to an ankle injury.

She eventually made her Olympic debut at the 1952 Helsinki Games at the age of 31, winning a gold medal in the floor exercise as well as a silver and two bronzes.

In 1956, she became the most successful athlete at the Melbourne Olympics, winning four gold and two silver medals.

Agnes Keleti, former Olympic gold medal winning gymnast, demonstrates her flexibility as she poses for a photo with her son Rafael at her apartment in Budapest, Hungary Wednesday Jan. 8, 2020. Although she turned 99 on Thursday, even a 9-year-old would have a hard time keeping up with Agnes Keleti's irrepressible energy and enthusiasm. Keleti is the oldest living Olympic champion and a Holocaust survivor. She won 10 medals in gymnastics — including five golds — at the 1952 Helsinki Games and at
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Ms Keleti at the age of 99 with her son, Rafael. Pic: AP

While she was becoming the oldest gold medallist in gymnastics history at age 35 in Melbourne, the Soviet Union invaded Hungary following an unsuccessful anti-Soviet uprising.

Ms Keleti remained in Australia and sought political asylum.

She then immigrated to Israel the following year and went on to train and coach the Israeli Olympic gymnastics team until the 1990s.

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Montenegro shooting: Two children among 12 killed in Cetinje after bar fight

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Montenegro shooting: Two children among 12 killed in Cetinje after bar fight

Two children are among 12 people killed after a gunman opened fire in western Montenegro following a bar brawl, officials have said.

Montenegro’s interior minister Danilo Saranovic said at least four people were wounded in the attack in the town of Cetinje.

The suspect was identified as 45-year-old Aleksandar Martinovic.

Mr Saranovic said Martinovic killed the owner of the bar, the bar owner’s children and his own family members, before going on the run.

Police dispatched a special unit to search for the attacker in the town. All the roads in and out of the city were blocked as officers swarmed the streets.

The interior minister later said that the gunman had died after taking his own life near his home in Cetinje, which is about 18 miles northwest of the capital Podgorica.

Police investigators at the scene of the shooting. Pic: AP
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Police investigators at the scene of the mass shooting. Pic: AP

Mr Saranovic told state broadcaster RTCG that Martinovic died while he was being transported to hospital.

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Police told the broadcaster that he had suffered a head wound.

Vanja Popovic, the cousin of one of those who died and of another injured person, said: “[The] son of my aunt is among the dead… we are all shocked.”

‘Gripped by sadness’

President Jakov Milatovic said in a post on X that he was “shocked and stunned” by the mass shooting.

He wrote: “Instead of holiday joy… we have been gripped by sadness over the loss of innocent lives.”

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Milojko Spajic went to the hospital where the wounded were being treated and announced three days of mourning.

“This is a terrible tragedy that has affected us all,” said Mr Spajic. “All police teams are out.”

Police and security personnel stand on a street in front of a fire engine near the scene where a gunman opened fire. Pic: Reuters
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Police and security personnel at the scene where several people were shot. Pic: Reuters

Police commissioner Lazar Scepanovic said Martinovic was at the bar throughout the day with other guests when the brawl erupted.

He said the suspect then went home, brought back a weapon and opened fire at around 5.30pm. The police chief said he killed four people at the bar and then continued shooting at three more locations.

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The suspect is believed to have been handed a suspended sentence in 2005 for violent behaviour and had appealed his latest conviction for illegal weapons possession.

RTCG reported that he was known for erratic and violent behaviour.

Montenegro, which has a population of 620,000 people, is known for gun culture and many people traditionally have weapons.

Wednesday’s gun attack is the second shooting rampage over the past three years in Cetinje, Montenegro’s former royal capital.

An attacker also killed 10 people, including two children, in August 2022 before he was shot and killed by a passerby.

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