Putting nuclear weapons to use risks escalation, impossible to control and potentially catastrophic | Diana Magnay
The US president is hardly unique in saying the risk of a nuclear “Armageddon” is higher now than it has been since the Cuban missile crisis – or as it is known in Russia, the Caribbean crisis.
Anyone who has thought for more than five seconds about Vladimir Putin’s nuclear threats given the geopolitical state of play would conclude the same and indeed, it is a staple comment across Russian state TV.
And though the Russian president’s assertion that “this is not a bluff” is the kind of statement you make when you’re bluffing, Russia’s nuclear arsenal should be taken seriously. That is why it’s there.
Clearly, US officials are, which is why they have reportedly been making firm comments behind closed doors to their Russian counterparts that a nuclear strike is the worst of all possible ideas and that retaliation would be decisive.
At their core, the power of nuclear weapons lies in their ability to persuade the opposing party to do or not to do something, that is the very nature of deterrence.
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Russia ‘keeping nuclear debate going’
Actually putting them to use in any capacity, tactical or strategic, has undeterminable benefits and escalation risks which are in all likelihood impossible to control and potentially catastrophic for all concerned.
At a very basic level, the wind might blow in Russia’s direction, Vladimir Putin would lose his friends in China and India, and a Western conventional retaliatory strike might knock out Russian infrastructure President Putin needs to keep his country going and his people on side.
The question is whether Vladimir Putin, who celebrates his 70th birthday this Friday, is thinking rationally about any of that.
Russia’s nuclear doctrine allows for a first-strike nuclear attack only if the very existence of the state is deemed at risk. It is a high bar. Ukraine has already struck targets in illegally annexed Crimea and in the Russian border town of Belgorod.
The Kremlin seems to have preferred not to make too big a deal out of it. Although this latest round of annexations means that Russia can claim these four territories of Eastern Ukraine as its own and therefore that any Ukrainian attack is a strike on the Russian state, it is a stretch to claim that as existential and a road that Russia has so far chosen not to travel.
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What is a tactical nuclear weapon?
Nor does Russia appear to have moved to take any of its nuclear warheads out of central storage and unite the payload with the means of delivery.
So far, its nuclear threats are just that – threats. There is still a long way to go in the way of signalling and warnings before we reach actual Armageddon.
And although Russia may be losing ground on the battlefield, it does still have other options beyond continuing to hammer it out in Donbas and Kherson.
Why hasn’t it taken out targets in Kyiv, for example, since the early days of the war? What about other forms of hybrid warfare (continuing to) target energy infrastructure in Ukraine and beyond? Vladimir Putin is a master of those dark arts. A nuclear strike, one would hope, would be his weapon of last resort.
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Russian RS-24 Yars ballistic missiles roll in Red Square during the Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia, June 2020. Pic: AP
The talk now in Russia is moving increasingly towards the Kremlin’s willingness to talk. The proposition seems to be – let’s discuss ending this now with Russia claiming a huge chunk of Eastern Ukraine as its own and there is the threat of tactical nuclear weapons if you don’t or if NATO troops get involved.
Ukraine’s president is understandably not convinced. Volodymyr Zelenskky wants his country back, whole. He is not the one thinking about potential off-ramps for Vladimir Putin, he’s thinking about winning.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskky
Ukraine’s southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia
Which is why it is so important that the US president is.
As Joe Biden put it in comments overheard by reporters, he’s trying to figure out where Mr Putin finds a way out where he “does not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia”.
Read more: What nuclear weapons does Russia have?
The trouble is it is incredibly hard to determine what that is and by raising the rhetorical stakes, Vladimir Putin appears to be backing himself increasingly into a corner. The prospects are deeply worrying.
In an interview with Sky News, Russian lawmaker and TV host Evgeny Popov insisted Russia would never make the first strike.
“Using a nuclear weapon in the 21st century is an insane decision. We are not insane and we hope you are not either.”
Let’s hope Vladimir Putin feels the same.
Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada have come into effect, as has an additional 10% on Chinese products, bringing the total import tax to 20%.
The US president confirmed the tariffs in a speech at the White House – and his announcement sent US and European stocks down sharply.
The tariffs will be felt heavily by US companies which have factories in Canada and Mexico, such as carmakers.
Mr Trump said: “They’re going to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs.”
There’s “no room left” for a deal that would see the tariffs shelved if fentanyl flowing into the US is curbed by its neighbours, he added.
Mexico and Canada face tariffs of 25%, with 10% for Canadian energy, the Trump administration confirmed.
And tariffs on Chinese imports have doubled, raising them from 10% to 20%.
Canada announced it would retaliate immediately, imposing 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn). It added the tariffs would be extended in 21 days to cover more US goods entering the country if the US did not lift its sanctions against Canada.
China also vowed to retaliate and reiterated its stance that the Trump administration was trying to “shift the blame” and
“bully” Beijing over fentanyl flows.
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What is America’s trade position?
Mr Trump’s speech stoked fears of a trade war in North America, prompting a financial market sell-off.
Stock market indexes the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.48% and 2.64% respectively on Monday.
The share prices for automobile companies including General Motors, which has significant truck production in Mexico, Automaker and Ford also fell.
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Consumers in the US could see price hikes within days, an expert has said.
Gustavo Flores-Macias, a public policy professor at Cornell University, New York, said “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.
This is due to supply chains that “crisscross the three countries in the manufacturing process” and ” because of the expected increase in the price of vehicles, which can dampen demand,” he added.
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The Trump administration is gearing up to bring in other tariffs in the coming weeks.
On 2 April, reciprocal tariffs will take effect on all countries that impose duties on US products.
He is also considering 25% tariffs on goods from the EU “very soon” after claiming the bloc was created to “screw the United States”.
A truck has collided with a bus in southern Bolivia, killing at least 31Â people, according to police – just two days after a deadly crash claimed at least 37 lives.
Officers said the bus rolled some 500m (1,640ft) down a ravine after the collision on Monday, which took place on the highway between Oruro, in the Bolivian Altiplano, and the highland mining city of Potosi.
The driver of the truck has been arrested, while the cause of the accident is under investigation.
Police spokesperson Limbert Choque said men and women were among the dead, and 22 people suffered injuries.
Rescue teams operating at the site of the crash. Pic: Bolivia’s attorney general/Reuters
Bolivia’s President, Luis Arce, expressed condolences for the victims on social media: “This unfortunate event must be investigated to establish responsibilities,” he said in a post on Facebook.
“We send our most sincere condolences to the bereaved families, wishing them the necessary strength to face these difficult times.”
The crash happened between Oruro and Potosi
On Saturday morning, a crash between two buses killed more than three dozen people in the same region.
It happened between Colchani and the city of Uyuni, a major tourist attraction and the world’s largest salt flat.
People stand near the wreckage of one of the two buses involved in a crash on Saturday. Pic: Reuters/Potosi Departmental Command
Coincidentally, one of the buses was heading to Oruro, where one of the most important carnival celebrations in Latin America is currently taking place.
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More than 30 people were also killed after a bus crash on 17 February.
In that crash, police said the driver appeared to have lost control of the vehicle, causing it to drop more than 800m (2,600ft) off a precipice in the southwestern area of Yocalla.
Bolivia’s mountainous, undermaintained and poorly supervised roads are some of the deadliest in the world, claiming an average 1,400 fatalities every year.
The Pope has had two episodes of “acute respiratory failure”, the Vatican has said.
The 88-year-old has been in hospital since 14 February with a severe respiratory infection that triggered other complications.
The Vatican said the respiratory failures were caused by “significant accumulation” of mucus in his lungs and a “bronchospasm”, akin to an asthma attack.
Doctors were then required to perform two bronchoscopies – a test which sees medics use a long, thin, telescope with a light to look into the lungs – to evaluate the Pope’s air passages, the statement said.
“In the afternoon, non-invasive mechanical ventilation was resumed,” the Vatican continued. “The Holy Father has always remained vigilant, oriented and collaborative. The prognosis remains reserved.”
Vatican sources said the situation had been calm this morning, before becoming worse this afternoon.
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Behind the scenes at the Vatican
The respiratory issues the Pope suffered today are due to an ongoing infection rather than a new one but he is not out of danger, they added.
Asked if the Pope is in good spirits, they gave no answer. When asked if the Vatican’s apartment is getting ready to welcome Francis back, the source said it was too premature to discuss this.
His clinical picture remains complex, they said.
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Earlier on Monday, Pope Francis issued a written message after Vatican officials begged him to let his voice be heard following more than two weeks out of public view.
He thanked his doctors for their care and well-wishers for their prayers, before praying for peace in Ukraine and elsewhere.
“From here, war appears even more absurd,” he wrote.
People at a nightly rosary prayer for the Pope in St. Peter’s Square yesterday evening. Pic: AP
This has become the longest public absence of his 12-year papacy.
Cardinal Konrad Krajewski presided over the evening rosary prayer in St Peter’s Square on Sunday night.
“Let us pray together with the entire church for the health of the Holy Father Francis,” he said.
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