Zachary Bogue, co-managing partner for Data Collective LLC, speaks during the Future of Innovation: Spotlight on Artificial Intelligence Conference in San Francisco, California, U.S., on Thursday, June 22, 2017. The market for AI technologies is estimated to generate more than $60 billion in productivity improvements for U.S. businesses annually.
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The Silicon Valley venture capital firm DCVCinvests in all kinds of climate tech companies including geothermal power, aerial methane imaging, advanced nuclear fission reactors, fabrics made out of mycelium, wastewater filtration technology — to name a few.
But there is one category of the climate tech landscape that Zack Bogue, a co-founder of DCVC does not invest in: Carbon offsets.
“We really don’t underwrite or like to see companies that are using carbon offsets,” Bogue told CNBC in an interview at the end of September in an interview in the Palo Alto office. “We do not look at companies that need to use carbon offsets to make their business model work.”
A carbon offset is a certificate or voucher that a company or organization buys that represents the reduction of a metric ton, or 2,205 pounds, of carbon dioxide emissions. If a company or organization is unable to eliminate the release of greenhouse gasses in their operations, they may purchase a carbon offset to compensate for their emissions.
“There’s been some studies out there that up to 90% of carbon offsets are completely ineffective — have had no impact — which is a tragedy of our time, because big Fortune 500 companies are paying millions of dollars to these carbon offsets, and continuing to emit in the meantime,” Bogue told CNBC. “And these offsets are actually having zero impact.”
The effectiveness of a carbon offset is a contentious issue, but at least one white paper published in April 2021 from the Finnish nonprofit and startup Compensate found that 90 percent of carbon capture projects were ineffective. Compensate has both a non-profit advocacy arm and a company that sells what it deems to be high quality carbon offsets. For the white paper, Compensate analyzed more than 100 nature-based carbon offsets certified by third-party verifiers in the space.
Of the carbon offsets which Compensate deemed a failure, 52% were guilty of what Compensate called “additionality” — for instance, offset credits sold to protect trees that were never in any danger of being cut down. Another 16% of the projects Compensate analyzed were considered a failure because their permanence was considered in jeopardy. For example, coastal restoration projects for mangroves in Bangladesh were jeopardized when floods devastated the country, Compensate said.
So, too, said Bogue of local California projects.
“There were some forests north of here that were the subject of carbon offsets where someone paid millions of dollars to not cut the forest down and — whether or not that’s legitimate, we can leave that aside — because those forests burned down,” Bogue said. “So they actually released the carbon that the company was paying to not have released and that the company emitted.”
DCVC does not invest in companies that use carbon offsets right now, but that is not an indictment against the idea.
“To be clear, I want I want them to exist,” Bogue told CNBC. “I want there to be a carbon tax, I want carbon credits, carbon offsets.”
But there isn’t enough transparency or accountability in the industry, Bogue said. To properly stand up the industry, there would need to be an agency akin to the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), according to Bogue.
“There’s a very set and rigorous process that you need to do to take a molecule from discovery and up until you’re dosing a human with it: You need to prove that it’s effective, you need to prove it’s non toxic,” Bogue said. “I would say that the imperative to reducing CO2 is as high of a human health imperative as putting small molecules into our body. Full stop.”
Until then, the industry is too uncertain to be a safe place for the money that DCVC invests on behalf of its limited partners, which are the likes of college endowments and hospitals.
“It needs to be rigorous, and apples to apples and, and verifiable and documentable,” Bogue said. “That’s just not where it is today. That’s where we need to get to, but that’s also why don’t think it’s investable.”
In the morning after Tesla’s shareholder meeting, shares of the company dropped significantly on market open, likely signaling a selloff from reasonable investors who objected to a vote to retain and overpay its CEO, Elon Musk, who has been responsible for a drastic drop in sales and earnings.
Tesla held its shareholder meeting yesterday, and shareholders voted on several high-profile proposals, the most-publicized of which would give CEO Elon Musk hundreds of millions of shares worth up to potentially $1 trillion, contingent upon company growth.
The headline $1 trillion has been widely reported and would be the largest payday ever for any employee of any company by multiple orders of magnitude if the company grows enough for all 12 milestone tranches to be met. The milestone tranches depend on company performance, and span over the next 7.5-10 years, with the goal of retaining Musk as CEO for that time period.
But Musk can still manage to get paid tens of billions of dollars – again, the largest payday ever for any CEO – even if the company grows slower than the S&P average. And another proposal printed 208 million shares, which the board can give to Musk at their discretion, independent of any milestone requirements.
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The vote was framed by Tesla as a necessity to retain Musk, and Musk himself threatened to leave the company if the vote did not go his way. He was probably bluffing, but it was enough to get 75% of shares to vote in favor of the incentive plan.
Many TSLA shareholders felt like they had no option other than to vote for the plan, as Musk’s incessant stock pumping with fantasies of robots and self-driving cars has been responsible for a huge run-up in share price, even as sales and earnings have dropped precipitously under his direction.
Due to Musk’s stock-pumping and the drop in earnings he’s caused at the company, Tesla’s price-to-earnings ratio is currently over 300. P/E ratio is an indication of the difference between market expectations and the company’s actual ability to make money, and lower numbers are healthier and less speculative. Most healthy companies have P/E ratios of around 20, possibly a bit more if they are in a high-growth industry.
But Musk had trapped Tesla shareholders: his lies are what led to TSLA stock being so high, and his threats to leave made shareholders fear a selloff in the event he didn’t get his absurd pay package, regardless of the benefits that might lead to in terms of company performance and stronger corporate governance. Nobody knows what actually would have happened to share price in the event that shareholders saw reason before the vote, but the common wisdom suggested a crash.
On other proposals, shareholders voted mostly lockstep with recommendations from Tesla’s captured board filled with Musk’s friends and family (and drug buddies). This included maintaining a supermajority voting requirement such that 67% of shares must agree to any change – an extremely high bar, now that Musk has been given incentives that could see his ownership share raise to over 25%.
The only significant measure on which shareholders broke with the board was a proposal to elect each company director annually – which would theoretically allow shareholders to respond more swiftly to problems in corporate governance (though they have as of yet shown disinterest in doing so).
Vote results lead to selloff in Tesla stock
Now, the market is responding to what happened yesterday, and it’s not nearly as enthusiastic as Elon Musk’s soldiers (yes, that is how one questioner referred to shareholders – they cheered, just before Musk referred to shareholders as “parasitic” in his response) in the room were.
At market open today, the stock immediately dropped nearly 5%, down 20 points from yesterday’s pre-meeting closing of $445.91 (which was already a down day for the company). The stock has moved up and down during the day, but as of this writing is at $424.
The drop was likely led by a selloff of the few investors who held out hope that shareholders might see reason. Given the news yesterday included a drastic pullback in shareholder voting rights, some shareholders might not want to keep their money in a company where they have effectively no say (this recent exodus of reasonable people probably influenced the vote results in the first place, too, as many people interested in healthy corporate governance sold their shares long ago).
The plan’s dilution may also have spooked shareholders. When new shares are printed, that reduces the value of all current shares, as all it does is cut the “pie” of the company’s market capitalization into smaller pieces. This means each share is worth less.
And the plans voted on involve the printing and granting of hundreds of millions of shares to Musk, which will dilute current shareholders. While this dilution hasn’t happened yet, the market can react ahead of time to the expectation of dilution.
Finally, the stock awards mean the company will be stuck with Musk for the foreseeable future. While this was the goal of the vote, to ensure that Musk not follow through on his threat to leave the company, he has also acted recently as the company’s chief saboteur, with most of his influence for more than a year being negative on company performance.
That’s quite a list of fireable offenses, all within the last year or two, and it’s not an exhaustive list either. And Tesla has ten more years of that to look forward to, if this stock award runs its course.
The shareholders selling off their shares today probably held some vain hope that “Elon Musk’s soldiers” might see some amount of reason, and push back against some of the greater excesses reflected in yesterday’s shareholder votes. But alas, that did not happen.
And so, another straw has been added to the camels’ backs, with some of them finally breaking. Thus today’s selloff, as the “to the moon” enthusiasm seen in the room yesterday meets with a small semblance of reality.
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Honda wants in on the growing demand for affordable EVs. With the company’s CEO saying EVs selling for under $30,000 will be the main competition in the US, Honda may offer one of its own.
Honda mulls launching a sub-$30,000 EV in the US
Honda currently sells one fully electric vehicle in the US, the Prologue, which shares the same Ultium platform as the Chevy Equinox EV and all of GM’s electric cars.
The company confirmed that the Acura ZDX will not return for the 2026 model year, as it prepares for a new lineup over the next few years.
During the Japan Mobility Show last week, Honda unveiled the Super-ONE, a prototype of its smallest and most affordable EV set to launch in Japan next year, followed by Europe, the UK, and other global markets. Although the Super-ONE is not expected to arrive in the US, Honda may still offer an EV for under $30,000.
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Honda’s CEO, Toshihiro Mibe, told reporters in Japan last week (via The Drive) that looking ahead, the main competition in the US will be affordable EVs, priced under $30,000.
The Honda Super-ONE (Source: Honda)
“So, for the future, we will consider coming up with EVs under $30,000 as well,” Mibe said. However, don’t expect to see it anytime soon.
Thanks to the Trump administration killing off the $7,500 federal tax credit and ending other policies promoting EV adoption, Honda believes it has some time before it needs to launch it.
2026 Honda Prologue Elite (Source: Honda)
“What’s making it difficult, of course, is with the IRA subsidies now gone, with the Trump administration in place, we have the sense that maybe EV growth has been moved back out, maybe out five years in the further future,” Mibe said.
Due to the changes, Honda is aiming to launch more affordable EVs priced under $30,000 closer to the end of the decade.
“If we think about whether we have to really come up with those affordable EVs right away, we get the feeling not really,” Mibe said, adding it will be around 2030 before we see it.
In the meantime, Honda will focus on hybrids. The company is set to introduce its next-gen mid-size hybrid platform in 2027, promising it will be more efficient, less costly, and free of rare-earth materials.
Although it’s still not under $30,000, Honda is offering over $16,500 off with stackable savings on the 2025 Prologue in most US states.
eVTOL air taxi developer Archer Aviation announced the acquisition of an existing airport facility in Los Angeles. The site, located a few miles from LAX airport, will become home to Archer’s future air taxi hub as well as a test bed for AI flight technologies.
Archer Aviation is a California-based developer of eVTOL and eCTOL, having recently begun piloted flights en route to commercial air taxi rides in the future. The plans for its network of sustainable aircraft have expanded to cities like New York and Chicago, as well as other countries like Japan and the United Arab Emirates.
In California, south of its headquarters, Archer intends to take to the skies above Los Angeles with a proposed air taxi network announced in August 2024. Building upon that network, Archer shared earlier this year that it had become the exclusive air taxi provider of the 2028 Olympic Games in Los Angeles.
Through this partnership, Archer’s flagship Midnight eVTOL is expected to transport Olympic VIPs, fans, and company stakeholders around the 2028 games’ locations, utilizing vertiport hubs at key venues. The eVTOL developer said its sustainable aerial technology will also support emergency services and security.
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Today, Archer announced it has allocated the Los Angeles airport hub from which this pending air taxi network will operate, located in Hawthorne, just a few miles from LAX.
Source: Archer Aviation
Archer finds home ahead of 2028 Los Angeles Games
According to a release from Archer Aviation, the company has signed definitive agreements to acquire control of Hawthorne Airport in exchange for $126 million in cash.
The municipal airport, located on Crenshaw Boulevard, is situated less than three miles east of LAX and near some of the city’s major destinations, including stadiums that will host Olympic events in 2028. According to the company, this existing airport facility will serve as its operational hub for the previously mentioned Los Angeles air taxi network, as well as a test bed for “AI-powered aviation technologies.”
Archer plans to develop and deploy those technologies in Los Angeles alongside its existing aviation partners, like United Airlines. United Airlines’ chief financial officer, Michael Leskinen, spoke about Archer’s progress in AI aviation beyond air taxi networks:
Archer’s trajectory validates our conviction that eVTOLs are part of the next generation of air traffic technology that will fundamentally reshape aviation.Their vision for an AI-enabled operations platform isn’t just about eVTOLs, it’s also about leveraging cutting-edge technology to better enable moving people safely and efficiently in our most congested airspaces. Through United’s investment arm, United Airlines Ventures, we’re investing in companies like Archer that pioneer technologies that will define and support aviation infrastructure for decades to come.
Before Archer announced its purchase of the Hawthorne Airport, the company also published its operating and financial results for Q3 2025, along with a shareholder letter discussing those results.
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