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On Thursday, the day after the end of the conference season, YouGov hosted a focus group with seven Blue Wall voters from around the South East exclusively for Sky News.

Some natural Conservatives, some former Tony Blair supporters, all with one thing in common: each voted Tory in the 2019 general election. Now their votes are up for grabs.

Here’s what our floating voter focus group found:

None said they were certain to vote Tory at the next election

Of the seven strong group, all of whom voted for Boris Johnson, none were prepared to say they would definitely vote Tory next time. Just one participant of the focus group confirmed they were more likely than not to back Liz Truss’s party next time around – suggesting plenty of doubts are harboured by the rest.

Several in the group were not wildly enthusiastic about the alternative – a Labour government – but felt it was now the default for the country given a profound concern at the existing team in power.

Stephanie, a solicitor, declared: “Do I think she (Truss) can do it? No. I don’t think she has the skills, the experience or the team behind her, and they’re all fighting against themselves.”

The group didn’t appear to think a month ago they would dislike Liz Truss – with Phyllis, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, saying she started out believing the new PM would be better than Boris Johnson. But the decisions Truss has made in her first four weeks in power have left a profound impact on these voters.

Voters worry the Truss plans are dangerous

The focus group demonstrated just how closely voters had been paying attention to the succession of announcements by the new government, and have taken fright at the change of direction by Truss.

“In order for her plans to take place, it requires an enormous amount of borrowing and that’s putting up interest rates,” said Jane, a hospital inspector. “So, we’re potentially bankrupting the country. What Liz Truss is proposing is very reckless. I don’t think this is the time we should be experimental.”

Phyllis, a cashier, said that Truss was “going in too hard” with her plans without being in touch. Others worried what it would mean in practice.

David, who is retired, said that “you can’t just say growth, growth, growth. What’s the plan behind that?” Only one member of the group, Patrick, was positive and suggested he admired her bravery.

Voters do not warm to Truss’s personality

Just one of the seven members of our focus group at the end of the session voted to say they trust Liz Truss. Even that one backer, Patrick, volunteered that he felt she had less energy, was more like a “schoolteacher” and the “delivery wasn’t there” but liked the core Conservative messages she espouses.

The group did not see her as a unifying figure. Paul, a former local government officer, said she was “very abrasive” in her conference speech. He highlighted her childhood going on CND marches, saying she’s “taking it out” now on the Greenpeace protesters who interrupted the speech.

Jane, a mother of twins, suggested her attack on the “anti-growth coalition” was actually divisive. “I find her a very uncomfortable (watch),” while Jasmine who worked in the financial services industry suggested Truss is at her most passionate when she is attacking others.

Kier Starmer Interview with Beth Rigby

These southern swing voters are edging cautiously towards Labour

Three of the seven said they were likely to vote Labour at the next election. Two further members of the group had not made up their mind. For a party which has in recent times struggled to get disaffected Tory voters to consider Labour, this is a good result.

Keir Starmer was described as the “lesser of two evils” by one member of the focus group, most of whom felt the Labour leader currently has the political edge.

David, who worked as an auditor, said that it is now “inevitable” there will be a Labour government – a sense of inevitability is often politically advantageous for a political party. There was not unalloyed enthusiasm, however.

Keir Starmer remains damaged by the Corbyn years and fears of a lurch to the left

These southern Blue Wall voters were still worried by what they saw as the stain of the Corbyn years. Jane said she voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 because of Jeremy Corbyn and antisemitism.

Patrick, who works in the rail industry, highlighted how many of the shadow cabinet served under Jeremy Corbyn.

David said that while Keir Starmer knows he needs to have centrist policies to be electable, “I’m very worried that because of the makeup of the Labour Parliamentary Party, he’ll be under huge pressure to move to the left in government”.

There were concerns for many in the group that a Labour government could mean more strikes: just one, Paul, who worked in local government, said that inflation could mean in some cases they were justified.

Many in Westminster may see Starmer as having cut ties with much of the Corbyn era – the public are not so clear about the difference.

Voters aren’t yet convinced Keir Starmer is strong enough

The Labour leader was seen as honest, decent and a good salesman by most members of the group. But there remains a lingering concern over whether he is tough enough to take on his party if they demand he lurch to the left in power.

Some in the group queried his lack of policy specifics. David said the party is “just very polarised: you’ve got the extreme left and then you’ve got the middle and then Keir Starmer who will say anything.”

Jane said that his difficulty “is a divided party and he struggles to convey his personal convictions.”

Stephanie also felt Starmer is more centrist than a leftwinger “but Labour is funded by the unions so he may have to support them”. Voters were “between a rock and a hard place,” she added.

Outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson makes a speech outside 10 Downing Street, London, before leaving for Balmoral for an audience with Queen Elizabeth II to formally resign as Prime Minister. Picture date: Tuesday September 6, 2022.

Voters remain incandescent with Boris Johnson. There’s no hope of a comeback

Thatcher fan Stephanie said she was embarrassed and ashamed by the Conservative party.

David said that having voted Conservative, the more he saw of Boris Johnson the more he was impressed by his intellectual ability … but as time wore on “I just lost complete trust in him; he has no moral compass”.

There was still disgust at partygate, with Jane remaining incandescent at what happened in the Johnson era.

Voters want a general election more than another Tory leadership contest

Patrick, the most ardent Conservative supporter of the group, said that if the Conservatives do not rally round Liz Truss, “they’re committing political suicide”.

Jane, however, said that we were already past the point of no return: “I don’t think she’ll survive. I think she’ll gradually give up on things because she’ll watch her popularity ebb away, then she’ll not be able to manage her MPs and we will have a general election sooner rather than later.

Three of the group said that Tories should get rid of Liz Truss. Four of the seven wanted an early election.

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Core one nation Conservative values still looked popular

The danger for Labour and Starmer is that there is a lingering fear of the left, and a residual affection for core Tory values. Patrick said the Tories should go back to standing for law and order, high growth, low taxes, and supporting aspirations.

Self-styled centrist Jane said that as well as strong public services, she believed in a healthy economy to provide the tax revenues to support them.

Jasmine, who could now support Labour, said the “Tories have still got the interests of the country at heart in essence”.

The focus group participants are profoundly worried about the future

Every member of the group said they were “negative” about Britain’s future.

Stephanie said she had no faith in those in charge to solve the nation’s problems. Jane said she was feeling “quite highly anxious” for her children, adding that there was an “arrogant disconnect” between leaders and voters but what was different this time was the “borderline desperation” epitomised by the use of food banks.

Phyllis felt it was less bad in the 1980s than today because in the Thatcher era there was greater social mobility then.

David said that the difference between the 1970s and now is house prices. Jane concluded by saying she thought “we’re on the edge of some social unrest”, adding she “doesn’t want to see strikes and wants everyone to negotiate but some people are going to be so desperate.”

It is hard to remain in power if that sentiment is widely felt.

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Pirates firing machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades board tanker off Somalia coast

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Pirates firing machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades board tanker off Somalia coast

Pirates firing machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades have boarded a tanker off the coast of Somalia.

Greek shipping company Latsco Marine Management confirmed its vessel, Hellas Aphrodite, had been attacked in the early hours of Thursday.

The tanker, which was carrying fuel, was en route from India to South Africa when a “security incident” took place, the firm said.

“All 24 crew are safe and accounted for and we remain in close contact with them,” it added in a statement.

The crew members took shelter in the ship’s “citadel”, or fortified safe room, and remain there, an official from maritime security company Diaplous said.

The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency issued an alert to warn ships in the area.

It located the vessel 560 nautical miles southeast of Eyl, Somalia, in the Indian Ocean. Eyl became famous in the mid-2000s as the centre of a string of piracy attacks.

More on Somalia

“The Master of a vessel has reported being approached by one small craft on its stern. The small craft fired small arms and RPGs [rocket-propelled grenades] towards the vessel,” UKMTO said in a statement.

EU forces move in on tanker

The European Union’s Operation Atalanta, a counter-piracy mission around the Horn of Africa, said one of its assets was “close to the incident” and “ready to take the appropriate actions”.

That EU force has responded to other recent pirate attacks in the area and had issued a recent alert that a pirate group was operating off Somalia and assaults were “almost certain” to happen.

Private security firm Ambrey has claimed that Somali pirates were operating from an Iranian fishing boat they had seized and had opened fire on the tanker.

Read more from Sky News:
The secrets behind the return of ISIS
Somalia is ‘safer’ than Nuneaton
ISIS militants on death row in Somalia

Pirate gangs resume attacks

Thursday’s attack comes after another vessel, the Cayman Islands-flagged Stolt Sagaland, found itself targeted in a suspected pirate attack that included both its armed security force and the attackers shooting at each other, the EU force said.

The vessel’s operator Stolt-Nielsen confirmed there was an attempted attack, early on 3 November, which was unsuccessful.

Somali pirate gangs have been relatively inactive in recent years. In May 2024, suspected pirates boarded the Liberian-flagged vessel Basilisk. EU naval forces later rescued the 17 crew members.

Meanwhile, the last hijacking took place in December 2023, when the Maltese-flagged Ruen was taken by assailants to the Somali coast before Indian naval forces freed the crew and arrested the attackers.

Hellas Aphrodite was en route from Sikka, India, to Durban, South Africa.

The Malta-flagged tanker is described as an oil/chemical tanker, 183m long and 32m wide, which was built in 2016, according to vesselfinder.com.

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2025 set to be among hottest years on record, UN scientists warn

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2025 set to be among hottest years on record, UN scientists warn

This year will likely be the second or third warmest ever on record globally, as an “unprecedented streak” of high temperatures persists, UN scientists have warned.

It comes as climate talks between world leaders get under way in Brazil.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and Prince William addressed other nations in the Amazonian city of Belem, including Brazil‘s president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and officials from Jamaica, which is still reeling from the devastating Hurricane Melissa.

Global average surface temperatures in January to August 2025 were 1.42C above pre-industrial times, before humans started burning fossil fuels at scale, the UN’s World Meteorological Organisation has said.

The Amazon rainforest around COP30 is threatened by climate change and mining, which also raises cash for the state of Para. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The Amazon rainforest around COP30 is threatened by climate change and mining, which also raises cash for the state of Para. Pic: Reuters

The level is closing in on the target set in the landmark Paris Agreement, struck at COP21 in 2015, which aimed to limit global warming to “well below” 2C and ideally 1.5C.

That means just 10 years later, it is already looking “virtually impossible” to stick to the Paris goal without at least temporarily overshooting it, the WMO said.

Under this heat, the UK experienced its hottest summer on record, two million people in Pakistan were evacuated from deadly floods and parts of the Amazon rainforest are so dry that once rare wildfires now spread easily.

More on Cop30

Hilde Heine, president of the coral atoll country of the Marshall Islands in the Pacific, said the “widespread mortality of coral reefs [is] now seemingly inevitable” and the Amazon is “likely not far behind in suffering a similar fate”.

WMO chief Celeste Saulo stressed it would be “still entirely possible and essential” to bring temperatures down to the 1.5C goal again.

That 1.5C limit is “not just a figure” but a “lifeline for Pacific communities and climate-vulnerable nations” grappling with rising and warming seas, said Shiva Gounden, head of Pacific at Greenpeace Australia Pacific.

“The legal, moral, and political responsibility for climate action has never been stronger, and the ambition leaders take to Belem will define its success.”

Read more from Sky News:
Earth’s lungs are collapsing – is net zero dead?
Few places explain world’s refugee crisis as well as this

A climate change protester. File pic: AP
Image:
A climate change protester. File pic: AP

Who’s staying away?

The leaders are in town over the course of two days, before the COP30 climate summit begins on Monday.

But only about 60 are due to attend, compared with more than double the number in some previous years.

The heads of the world’s three largest drivers of climate change, China, the US and India, are all staying at home.

Although many missing leaders will still send officials to the negotiations, diplomats here in Belem are worried that governments are distracted by cost-of-living woes and boosting defence.

They also fear US President Donald Trump will seek to water down any deals from afar by threatening countries that agree to anything too ambitious.

Leaders ‘denying reality’

Mariana Menezes, a Brazilian mother caught up in the devastating floods in Rio Grande do Sul last year, said: “We see world leaders denying reality and making plans to expand fossil fuels.

“These people, who once enjoyed full lives with unforgettable summers and long walks outdoors in their youth, are condemning future generations to lives of pollution and disasters.”

The WMO’s annual State of the Climate reports found that the past 11 years – from the Paris Agreement year of 2015 to 2025 – have each been in the top 11 warmest on record.

And the past three years have been the three warmest years in the record, stretching back 176 years.

In his speech, Sir Keir admitted that the “consensus is gone” on climate change – that cross-party unity on the science has splintered at home and globally.

He made an economic case for net zero, saying the green transition would create jobs and lower household bills.

But despite attacks on climate policies from the Conservatives and Reform, Britons are still concerned about and believe in climate change, and are still buying in to green technology like electric vehicles and heat pumps, Sky News has found.

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US soldiers given food bank advice and could go without pay amid government shutdown

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US soldiers given food bank advice and could go without pay amid government shutdown

US soldiers in Germany may not receive their November pay and have been given food bank advice as a government shutdown entered a record 37th day.

Around 37,000 US soldiers stationed in the country face uncertainty over November salary payments.

The Pentagon has warned US troops may not receive mid-month wages despite last-minute funding for October.

US treasury secretary Scott Bessent told CBS News: “I think we’ll be able to pay them beginning in November, but by 15 November our troops and service members who are willing to risk their lives aren’t going to be able to get paid.”

The US army also published guidance on its website directing soldiers in Germany to emergency social benefits, loans, and food sharing organisations including Tafel Deutschland – the umbrella organisation of more than 970 food banks in the country – as well as the app Too Good To Go.

Some of the information was later removed from the web page of the garrison in Bavaria, but some of the listings for services for those affected by the shutdown remained on a separate document.

Read more: What impact is the shutdown having?

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Cuts to flights

The US federal government shutdown became the longest in history on Wednesday – with Sean Duffy, the transportation secretary, announcing he was ordering a 10% cut in flights at 40 major US airports from Friday.

Tens of thousands of flights have been delayed because of widespread air traffic control shortages, with the shutdown forcing 13,000 air traffic controllers and 50,000 Transportation Security Administration agents to work without pay.

Airlines have said at least 3.2 million travellers have already been impacted by air traffic control shortages.

Travellers waiting in long airport security lines in Houston on 3 November. Pic: AP
Image:
Travellers waiting in long airport security lines in Houston on 3 November. Pic: AP

“Our job is to make sure we make the hard decisions to continue to keep the airspace safe,” said Mr Duffy.

“When we see pressures building in these 40 markets, we just can’t ignore it,” said Bryan Bedford, head of the Federal Aviation Administration.

“We can take action today to prevent things from deteriorating so the system is extremely safe today, will be extremely safe tomorrow.”

The government did not name the 40 sites affected, but the cuts are expected to hit the busiest airports, including those serving New York City, Washington DC, Chicago, Atlanta, Los Angeles and Dallas.

This would reduce as many as 1,800 flights and more than 268,000 airline seats, according to aviation analytics firm Cirium.

Read more from Sky News:
JD Vance’s reaction to a big 24 hours in US politics is telling
Tesla shareholders may be about to do something never seen

Shutdown longest in history

The shutdown, which started on 1 October, has been triggered by politicians failing to pass new funding bills as a stand-off between the Democrats and Republicans over healthcare spending continues.

It has now eclipsed the 35-day federal closure in late 2018 and early 2019 during Donald Trump’s first term – disrupting the lives of millions of Americans as all non-essential parts of government are frozen.

Republicans hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. But 60 votes are needed to pass any funding bill.

The Trump administration has sought to ramp up the pressure on Democrats to end the shutdown and has increasingly raised the spectre of dramatic aviation disruptions to force them to vote to reopen the government.

However, Democrats contend Republicans are to blame for refusing to negotiate over key health care subsidies.

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