‘Abrasive’ Truss turns off floating voters who backed Tories at last general election, YouGov focus group says
On Thursday, the day after the end of the conference season, YouGov hosted a focus group with seven Blue Wall voters from around the South East exclusively for Sky News.
Some natural Conservatives, some former Tony Blair supporters, all with one thing in common: each voted Tory in the 2019 general election. Now their votes are up for grabs.
Here’s what our floating voter focus group found:
None said they were certain to vote Tory at the next election
Of the seven strong group, all of whom voted for Boris Johnson, none were prepared to say they would definitely vote Tory next time. Just one participant of the focus group confirmed they were more likely than not to back Liz Truss’s party next time around – suggesting plenty of doubts are harboured by the rest.
Several in the group were not wildly enthusiastic about the alternative – a Labour government – but felt it was now the default for the country given a profound concern at the existing team in power.
Stephanie, a solicitor, declared: “Do I think she (Truss) can do it? No. I don’t think she has the skills, the experience or the team behind her, and they’re all fighting against themselves.”
The group didn’t appear to think a month ago they would dislike Liz Truss – with Phyllis, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, saying she started out believing the new PM would be better than Boris Johnson. But the decisions Truss has made in her first four weeks in power have left a profound impact on these voters.
Voters worry the Truss plans are dangerous
The focus group demonstrated just how closely voters had been paying attention to the succession of announcements by the new government, and have taken fright at the change of direction by Truss.
“In order for her plans to take place, it requires an enormous amount of borrowing and that’s putting up interest rates,” said Jane, a hospital inspector. “So, we’re potentially bankrupting the country. What Liz Truss is proposing is very reckless. I don’t think this is the time we should be experimental.”
Phyllis, a cashier, said that Truss was “going in too hard” with her plans without being in touch. Others worried what it would mean in practice.
David, who is retired, said that “you can’t just say growth, growth, growth. What’s the plan behind that?” Only one member of the group, Patrick, was positive and suggested he admired her bravery.
Voters do not warm to Truss’s personality
Just one of the seven members of our focus group at the end of the session voted to say they trust Liz Truss. Even that one backer, Patrick, volunteered that he felt she had less energy, was more like a “schoolteacher” and the “delivery wasn’t there” but liked the core Conservative messages she espouses.
The group did not see her as a unifying figure. Paul, a former local government officer, said she was “very abrasive” in her conference speech. He highlighted her childhood going on CND marches, saying she’s “taking it out” now on the Greenpeace protesters who interrupted the speech.
Jane, a mother of twins, suggested her attack on the “anti-growth coalition” was actually divisive. “I find her a very uncomfortable (watch),” while Jasmine who worked in the financial services industry suggested Truss is at her most passionate when she is attacking others.
These southern swing voters are edging cautiously towards Labour
Three of the seven said they were likely to vote Labour at the next election. Two further members of the group had not made up their mind. For a party which has in recent times struggled to get disaffected Tory voters to consider Labour, this is a good result.
Keir Starmer was described as the “lesser of two evils” by one member of the focus group, most of whom felt the Labour leader currently has the political edge.
David, who worked as an auditor, said that it is now “inevitable” there will be a Labour government – a sense of inevitability is often politically advantageous for a political party. There was not unalloyed enthusiasm, however.
Keir Starmer remains damaged by the Corbyn years and fears of a lurch to the left
These southern Blue Wall voters were still worried by what they saw as the stain of the Corbyn years. Jane said she voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 because of Jeremy Corbyn and antisemitism.
Patrick, who works in the rail industry, highlighted how many of the shadow cabinet served under Jeremy Corbyn.
David said that while Keir Starmer knows he needs to have centrist policies to be electable, “I’m very worried that because of the makeup of the Labour Parliamentary Party, he’ll be under huge pressure to move to the left in government”.
There were concerns for many in the group that a Labour government could mean more strikes: just one, Paul, who worked in local government, said that inflation could mean in some cases they were justified.
Many in Westminster may see Starmer as having cut ties with much of the Corbyn era – the public are not so clear about the difference.
Voters aren’t yet convinced Keir Starmer is strong enough
The Labour leader was seen as honest, decent and a good salesman by most members of the group. But there remains a lingering concern over whether he is tough enough to take on his party if they demand he lurch to the left in power.
Some in the group queried his lack of policy specifics. David said the party is “just very polarised: you’ve got the extreme left and then you’ve got the middle and then Keir Starmer who will say anything.”
Jane said that his difficulty “is a divided party and he struggles to convey his personal convictions.”
Stephanie also felt Starmer is more centrist than a leftwinger “but Labour is funded by the unions so he may have to support them”. Voters were “between a rock and a hard place,” she added.
Voters remain incandescent with Boris Johnson. There’s no hope of a comeback
Thatcher fan Stephanie said she was embarrassed and ashamed by the Conservative party.
David said that having voted Conservative, the more he saw of Boris Johnson the more he was impressed by his intellectual ability … but as time wore on “I just lost complete trust in him; he has no moral compass”.
There was still disgust at partygate, with Jane remaining incandescent at what happened in the Johnson era.
Voters want a general election more than another Tory leadership contest
Patrick, the most ardent Conservative supporter of the group, said that if the Conservatives do not rally round Liz Truss, “they’re committing political suicide”.
Jane, however, said that we were already past the point of no return: “I don’t think she’ll survive. I think she’ll gradually give up on things because she’ll watch her popularity ebb away, then she’ll not be able to manage her MPs and we will have a general election sooner rather than later.
Three of the group said that Tories should get rid of Liz Truss. Four of the seven wanted an early election.
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Core one nation Conservative values still looked popular
The danger for Labour and Starmer is that there is a lingering fear of the left, and a residual affection for core Tory values. Patrick said the Tories should go back to standing for law and order, high growth, low taxes, and supporting aspirations.
Self-styled centrist Jane said that as well as strong public services, she believed in a healthy economy to provide the tax revenues to support them.
Jasmine, who could now support Labour, said the “Tories have still got the interests of the country at heart in essence”.
The focus group participants are profoundly worried about the future
Every member of the group said they were “negative” about Britain’s future.
Stephanie said she had no faith in those in charge to solve the nation’s problems. Jane said she was feeling “quite highly anxious” for her children, adding that there was an “arrogant disconnect” between leaders and voters but what was different this time was the “borderline desperation” epitomised by the use of food banks.
Phyllis felt it was less bad in the 1980s than today because in the Thatcher era there was greater social mobility then.
David said that the difference between the 1970s and now is house prices. Jane concluded by saying she thought “we’re on the edge of some social unrest”, adding she “doesn’t want to see strikes and wants everyone to negotiate but some people are going to be so desperate.”
It is hard to remain in power if that sentiment is widely felt.
We rarely think about how essential and reliable electricity grids are until they fail.
Now, millions of people across Spain, Portugal and parts of France are likely thinking of little else.
While local power cuts are fairly common, what’s happened across the Iberian peninsula is something far more extreme.
Much of Spain and Portugal’s electricity transmission system collapsed in seconds including in major cities Lisbon, Madrid, Barcelona and Seville.
Blackouts latest: ‘Rare atmospheric phenomenon’ behind outages
It’s likely the outage will surpass Europe’s largest blackout to date when 56 million people in Italy and Switzerland lost power for up to 12 hours in 2023.
The cause of the outage is unclear. Portugal’s grid operator has blamed a “rare atmospheric phenomenon” that caused “anomalous oscillations” in high voltage power lines in Spain.
Spain’s grid operator has yet to respond to that or provide an update on the cause. But it’s unlikely whatever caused the outage was a single, localised event.
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Mayhem in Spain after major power outage
A major power line going down can cause a large outage – as it did in 2021, when an interconnector between France and Spain failed leaving a million people without power for a few hours.
But it’s unlikely to cause a system-wide failure of the kind we’re seeing now.
However, when things do start to fail on a power grid, they can cascade uncontrollably.
Keeping a grid running is a constant and highly complex balancing act.
People outside a terminal at Lisbon Airport during the blackout. Pic: Reuters
Spain’s mains AC electricity supply grid, like ours in the UK, runs at 50Hz. That frequency is based on the speed at which generating hardware such as gas and nuclear turbines spin.
If there are sudden fluctuations in power supply or demand – a power station failing or a high voltage power line going down, for example – the frequency of AC power in the transmission lines changes and circuit breakers trip to protect either the transmission network, or power plant hardware from burning out.
To prevent such failures, grid engineers constantly measure and forecast supply and demand to keep the grid balanced.
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To protect the system in emergencies, they occasionally have to “shed load” by cutting power to parts of the grid – the reason we’ve all experienced the occasional short-lived power cut.
But if balance is lost, a grid can fail in a domino effect with sections of the grid tripping, then power plants shutting down to protect themselves from the drop in demand, one after another.
The challenge now, and it’s a nightmare for Spain and Portugal’s power engineers, is to gradually restore the grid section by section while maintaining the balance of supply and demand.
Act too fast, and the grid can trip again. Take too long and some power plants or substations might struggle to restart – especially if they rely on battery power to do so.
While some regions of Spain have already had power restored, and Portugal says its power will be back to normal within hours, it could take much longer for the system to be fully restored.
A Palestinian diplomat has told the United Nations’ top court that Israel is “starving, killing and displacing” civilians and targeting aid workers in Gaza.
Israel denies deliberately targeting civilians and aid staff and did not attend the hearing at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Monday.
At The Hague, Palestinian ambassador to the Netherlands, Ammar Hijazi, accused Israel of breaching international law in the occupied territories.
He said: “Israel is starving, killing and displacing Palestinians while also targeting and blocking humanitarian organisations trying to save their lives.”
Ammar Hijazi, right. Pic: AP
A protester outside the International Court of Justice on Monday. Pic: AP
The hearings are focused on a request last year from the UN General Assembly, which asked the court to weigh in on Israel’s legal responsibilities after the country blocked the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine refugees from operating on its territory.
In a resolution sponsored by Norway, the General Assembly requested an advisory opinion, a non-binding but legally important decision from the court, on Israel’s obligations in the occupied territories to “ensure and facilitate the unhindered provision of urgently needed supplies essential to the survival of the Palestinian civilian population”.
Pic: AP
While Israel was not in court, foreign minister Gideon Saar told a news conference in Jerusalem: “I accuse UNRWA, I accuse the UN, I accuse the secretary-general and I accuse all those that weaponised international law and its institutions in order to deprive the most attacked country in the world, Israel, of its most basic right to defend itself.”
Forty states and four international organisations are scheduled to participate in the ICJ hearings, with it likely taking months for the court to rule.
Pic: AP
The hearings come amid the near collapse of the humanitarian aid system in Gaza.
Israel has blocked the entry of food, fuel, medicine and other humanitarian supplies since 2 March.
The World Food Programme said last week its food stocks in the Gaza Strip had run out.
Palestinians wait to receive food cooked by a charity kitchen, in Beit Lahiya. Pic: Reuters
Israel also renewed its bombardment on 18 March, breaking a ceasefire, and seized large parts of the territory, claiming it aims to push Hamas to release more hostages.
Overnight into Monday, at least 27 Palestinians were killed in Israeli strikes, according to local health officials.
An air strike hit a home in Beit Lahia, killing 10 people, including a Palestinian prisoner, Abdel-Fattah Abu Mahadi, who had been released as part of the ceasefire.
His wife, two of their children and a grandchild were also killed, according to Indonesia Hospital which received the bodies.
An Israeli air strike hit a home in Beit Lahia, killing 10 people. Pic: AP
Pic: AP
Another strike hit a home in Gaza City, killing seven people, according to the Gaza Health Ministry’s emergency service.
And late on Sunday, a strike hit a home in the southern city of Khan Younis, killing at least 10 people, including five siblings as young as four-years-old, according to the health ministry.
Two other children were killed along with their parents, according to Nasser Hospital which received the bodies.
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military.
Israel claims it makes every effort to avoid harming civilians and blames Hamas for their deaths because the militants operate in densely populated areas.
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World Food Programme stocks in Gaza have run out
Read more:
Israeli troops shot at Gaza aid workers from ‘point-blank range’
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Israel’s ban on UNRWA came into effect in January.
The organisation has faced increased criticism from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies, who claim the group is deeply infiltrated by Hamas, which UNRWA refutes.
Amir Weissbrod, a foreign ministry official, presented Israel’s case against UNRWA on Monday.
He accused it of failing to act before the war against evidence that Hamas had used its facilities, including by digging tunnels underneath them.
The official said UNRWA employed 1,400 Palestinians with militant ties.
Israel claims some of those employees also took part in Hamas’ attacks on 7 October 2023, with at least three of those employees still allegedly working for the UN.
The presentation included videos, documents and pictures of the alleged employees.
The 7 October 2023 attack in southern Israel killed around 1,200 people and prompted the ongoing Israeli offensive in Gaza – which the territory’s health ministry says has killed more than 52,000 people.
UNRWA said it fired nine staffers after an internal UN investigation concluded that they could have been involved, although the evidence was not authenticated and corroborated.
The ban does not apply directly to Gaza, but UNRWA is prohibited from operating inside Israel which affects the agency’s ability to function.
Israeli officials claim they are looking for alternative ways to deliver aid to Gaza that would cut out the UN.
The conclave to elect Pope Francis’s successor will begin on 7 May, the Vatican has announced.
Some 135 cardinal electors – those under the age of 80 – will take part and vote for the new pontiff.
The rituals of the event, held in the Sistine Chapel, are elaborate and date back centuries. So how does the process work?
When Pope Francis died, the Catholic Church entered a period known as “sede vacante”, meaning “empty seat”.
His ring and seal – used to dispatch papal documents – were broken to prevent anyone else from using them.
Cardinal Kevin Farrell – the Camerlengo, or chamberlain, who announced Francis’s death – became the interim chief of the Catholic Church.
Pic: Reuters
The conclave
Cardinals travel to Rome from all over the world and stay until a new pope is chosen.
Of the 252 current ones, there are 135 cardinal electors: 53 from Europe; 23 from Asia; 20 from North America; 18 from Africa; 17 from South America; and four from Oceania.
Italy has the most cardinals who can vote, with 17, while the US has 10 and Brazil has seven. The UK has three.
A papal crest dedicated to Pope Pius XII. Pic: Reuters
Once the conclave begins, the cardinals will not emerge from the Vatican until a new pope has been chosen. The word “conclave” comes from Latin, meaning “with key” – a reference to the isolation in which the cardinals are kept.
While holding voting sessions in the Sistine Chapel, they sleep in the Casa Santa Marta – a guesthouse inside the Vatican’s grounds.
The longest conclave lasted almost three years, between 1268 and 1271. Several have lasted only one day. The one which elected Pope John Paul in 1978 lasted less than three days. Cardinals chose Pope Francis in around two days.
While the conclave is ongoing, cardinals are unable to communicate with the outside world. No telephones, internet use or newspapers are allowed.
Except for the first day, when only one ballot is held, the cardinals hold two daily votes until one candidate has a majority of two-thirds plus one. They are sworn to secrecy about the voting.
White smoke?
So how do we know if a decision has been reached? Yes, this is the black smoke, white smoke part.
If the cardinals have not reached a majority, the cards and the tally sheets are placed in a stove and burned with an additive to produce black smoke, showing the outside world that a pope has not yet been chosen.
No pope yet… black smoke rising from the Sistine Chapel. Pic: Reuters
Watching for the tell-tale smoke arising from the top of the Sistine Chapel is a tradition, with Catholics crowding into St Peter’s Square for the spectacle.
If no result has been reached after three days, the sessions are suspended for a day to allow for prayer and discussion. More ballots are held until a two-thirds majority is reached.
When enough cardinals have agreed on a candidate, he is asked if he accepts the papacy and by which name he wishes to be known.
The ballots are burned as before, but with an additive to produce white smoke.
A Papal white skull cap. Pic: Reuters
New pope proclaimed
The new pope then dons his new papal vestments – tailors keep large, medium and small sizes ready – and sits on a throne in the Sistine Chapel to receive the other cardinals who file up to pay homage and swear obedience to the church’s new leader.
The senior cardinal deacon then steps out on to the central balcony of St Peter’s Basilica overlooking the square and announces in Latin: “Annuntio vobis gaudium magnum. Habemus Papam” (I announce to you a great joy. We have a pope) and reveals the cardinal’s name and the name he has chosen.
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The new pope then appears on the balcony to deliver his first public pontifical greeting and bless the crowds in St Peter’s Square.
A few days later, he celebrates a mass that marks the beginning of his papal ministry.
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