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On Thursday, the day after the end of the conference season, YouGov hosted a focus group with seven Blue Wall voters from around the South East exclusively for Sky News.

Some natural Conservatives, some former Tony Blair supporters, all with one thing in common: each voted Tory in the 2019 general election. Now their votes are up for grabs.

Here’s what our floating voter focus group found:

None said they were certain to vote Tory at the next election

Of the seven strong group, all of whom voted for Boris Johnson, none were prepared to say they would definitely vote Tory next time. Just one participant of the focus group confirmed they were more likely than not to back Liz Truss’s party next time around – suggesting plenty of doubts are harboured by the rest.

Several in the group were not wildly enthusiastic about the alternative – a Labour government – but felt it was now the default for the country given a profound concern at the existing team in power.

Stephanie, a solicitor, declared: “Do I think she (Truss) can do it? No. I don’t think she has the skills, the experience or the team behind her, and they’re all fighting against themselves.”

The group didn’t appear to think a month ago they would dislike Liz Truss – with Phyllis, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, saying she started out believing the new PM would be better than Boris Johnson. But the decisions Truss has made in her first four weeks in power have left a profound impact on these voters.

Voters worry the Truss plans are dangerous

The focus group demonstrated just how closely voters had been paying attention to the succession of announcements by the new government, and have taken fright at the change of direction by Truss.

“In order for her plans to take place, it requires an enormous amount of borrowing and that’s putting up interest rates,” said Jane, a hospital inspector. “So, we’re potentially bankrupting the country. What Liz Truss is proposing is very reckless. I don’t think this is the time we should be experimental.”

Phyllis, a cashier, said that Truss was “going in too hard” with her plans without being in touch. Others worried what it would mean in practice.

David, who is retired, said that “you can’t just say growth, growth, growth. What’s the plan behind that?” Only one member of the group, Patrick, was positive and suggested he admired her bravery.

Voters do not warm to Truss’s personality

Just one of the seven members of our focus group at the end of the session voted to say they trust Liz Truss. Even that one backer, Patrick, volunteered that he felt she had less energy, was more like a “schoolteacher” and the “delivery wasn’t there” but liked the core Conservative messages she espouses.

The group did not see her as a unifying figure. Paul, a former local government officer, said she was “very abrasive” in her conference speech. He highlighted her childhood going on CND marches, saying she’s “taking it out” now on the Greenpeace protesters who interrupted the speech.

Jane, a mother of twins, suggested her attack on the “anti-growth coalition” was actually divisive. “I find her a very uncomfortable (watch),” while Jasmine who worked in the financial services industry suggested Truss is at her most passionate when she is attacking others.

Kier Starmer Interview with Beth Rigby

These southern swing voters are edging cautiously towards Labour

Three of the seven said they were likely to vote Labour at the next election. Two further members of the group had not made up their mind. For a party which has in recent times struggled to get disaffected Tory voters to consider Labour, this is a good result.

Keir Starmer was described as the “lesser of two evils” by one member of the focus group, most of whom felt the Labour leader currently has the political edge.

David, who worked as an auditor, said that it is now “inevitable” there will be a Labour government – a sense of inevitability is often politically advantageous for a political party. There was not unalloyed enthusiasm, however.

Keir Starmer remains damaged by the Corbyn years and fears of a lurch to the left

These southern Blue Wall voters were still worried by what they saw as the stain of the Corbyn years. Jane said she voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 because of Jeremy Corbyn and antisemitism.

Patrick, who works in the rail industry, highlighted how many of the shadow cabinet served under Jeremy Corbyn.

David said that while Keir Starmer knows he needs to have centrist policies to be electable, “I’m very worried that because of the makeup of the Labour Parliamentary Party, he’ll be under huge pressure to move to the left in government”.

There were concerns for many in the group that a Labour government could mean more strikes: just one, Paul, who worked in local government, said that inflation could mean in some cases they were justified.

Many in Westminster may see Starmer as having cut ties with much of the Corbyn era – the public are not so clear about the difference.

Voters aren’t yet convinced Keir Starmer is strong enough

The Labour leader was seen as honest, decent and a good salesman by most members of the group. But there remains a lingering concern over whether he is tough enough to take on his party if they demand he lurch to the left in power.

Some in the group queried his lack of policy specifics. David said the party is “just very polarised: you’ve got the extreme left and then you’ve got the middle and then Keir Starmer who will say anything.”

Jane said that his difficulty “is a divided party and he struggles to convey his personal convictions.”

Stephanie also felt Starmer is more centrist than a leftwinger “but Labour is funded by the unions so he may have to support them”. Voters were “between a rock and a hard place,” she added.

Outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson makes a speech outside 10 Downing Street, London, before leaving for Balmoral for an audience with Queen Elizabeth II to formally resign as Prime Minister. Picture date: Tuesday September 6, 2022.

Voters remain incandescent with Boris Johnson. There’s no hope of a comeback

Thatcher fan Stephanie said she was embarrassed and ashamed by the Conservative party.

David said that having voted Conservative, the more he saw of Boris Johnson the more he was impressed by his intellectual ability … but as time wore on “I just lost complete trust in him; he has no moral compass”.

There was still disgust at partygate, with Jane remaining incandescent at what happened in the Johnson era.

Voters want a general election more than another Tory leadership contest

Patrick, the most ardent Conservative supporter of the group, said that if the Conservatives do not rally round Liz Truss, “they’re committing political suicide”.

Jane, however, said that we were already past the point of no return: “I don’t think she’ll survive. I think she’ll gradually give up on things because she’ll watch her popularity ebb away, then she’ll not be able to manage her MPs and we will have a general election sooner rather than later.

Three of the group said that Tories should get rid of Liz Truss. Four of the seven wanted an early election.

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Core one nation Conservative values still looked popular

The danger for Labour and Starmer is that there is a lingering fear of the left, and a residual affection for core Tory values. Patrick said the Tories should go back to standing for law and order, high growth, low taxes, and supporting aspirations.

Self-styled centrist Jane said that as well as strong public services, she believed in a healthy economy to provide the tax revenues to support them.

Jasmine, who could now support Labour, said the “Tories have still got the interests of the country at heart in essence”.

The focus group participants are profoundly worried about the future

Every member of the group said they were “negative” about Britain’s future.

Stephanie said she had no faith in those in charge to solve the nation’s problems. Jane said she was feeling “quite highly anxious” for her children, adding that there was an “arrogant disconnect” between leaders and voters but what was different this time was the “borderline desperation” epitomised by the use of food banks.

Phyllis felt it was less bad in the 1980s than today because in the Thatcher era there was greater social mobility then.

David said that the difference between the 1970s and now is house prices. Jane concluded by saying she thought “we’re on the edge of some social unrest”, adding she “doesn’t want to see strikes and wants everyone to negotiate but some people are going to be so desperate.”

It is hard to remain in power if that sentiment is widely felt.

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Maduro says Venezuela ready to defend itself as US considers potential land attack

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Maduro says Venezuela ready to defend itself as US considers potential land attack

Nicolas Maduro has said Venezuelans are ready to defend their country as the US considers a land attack.

The president held a rally in Caracas amid heightened tensions with Donald Trump’s administration, which has been targeting what it says are boats carrying drug smugglers.

Mr Trump met his national security team on Monday evening, having warned last week that land strikes would start “very soon”.

An image of an alleged drug boat being targeted by the US military. Pic: Truth Social
Image:
An image of an alleged drug boat being targeted by the US military. Pic: Truth Social

It’s not been confirmed what was discussed at the meeting, but White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters: “There’s many options at the president’s disposal that are on the table – and I’ll let him speak on those.”

US forces have carried out at least 21 strikes on boats it claims were carrying narcotics to its shores over the last few months, and the White House has accused Mr Maduro of being involved in the drugs trade – a claim he denies.

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‘The president has a right to take them out’

‘Psychological terrorism’

Mr Maduro – widely considered a dictator by the West – said on Monday that Venezuelans are ready “to defend [the country] and lead it to the path of peace”.

More on Nicolas Maduro

“We have lived through 22 weeks of aggression that can only be described as psychological terrorism,” he said.

Venezuela has said the boat attacks, which have killed more than 80 people, amount to murder – and that Mr Trump’s true motivation is to oust Mr Maduro and access its oil.

Concerns have been raised over the legality of the US attacks, which the Pentagon has sought to justify by designating the gangs as foreign terror organisations.

Maduro was championed by supporters as he spoke on Monday. Pics: Reuters
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Maduro was championed by supporters as he spoke on Monday. Pics: Reuters

Controversy over US strikes

Tensions remain high over America’s large deployment in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific, which includes its flagship aircraft carrier and thousands of troops.

The US has released videos of boats being blown up but has not provided evidence – such as photos of drugs – to support the smuggling claims.

Controversy also surrounds the first incident, on 2 September, in which 11 people were killed – with a follow-up strike targeting the boat after the first attack left two survivors in the water.

US media reported defence secretary Pete Hegseth gave an order that everyone on board should be killed.

However, there are concerns about the legality of the second strike if the survivors posed no threat.

Mr Hegseth dismissed the reporting as “fake news” and insisted all actions in the region are compliant with US and international law.

“Every trafficker we kill is affiliated with a Designated Terrorist Organization,” he said on X.

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Is US about to go to war with Venezuela?

Mr Trump said on Sunday he would not have wanted a second strike and that Mr Hegseth had denied giving such an order.

Ms Leavitt confirmed on Monday that the boat had been hit by a second strike – but denied Mr Hegseth gave the order for the follow-up.

Instead, she said he had authorised US navy vice admiral Frank Bradley to attack, and the admiral acted “well within his authority and the law, directing the engagement to ensure the boat was destroyed and the threat to the US was eliminated”.

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Hong Kong fire: 13 arrested as death toll hits 151
More than 1,100 confirmed dead in Asia floods

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Trump: Maduro call neither ‘went well or badly’

As the US weighs its next steps, Mr Trump said on Sunday he had spoken to Mr Maduro by phone and that the conversation went neither “well or badly”.

In recent days, he also stated that Venezuela’s airspace should be considered closed – with the South American nation calling it a “colonial threat” and “illegal, and unjustified aggression”.

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More than 1,200 confirmed dead and 800 missing in catastrophic Asia floods

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More than 1,200 confirmed dead and 800 missing in catastrophic Asia floods

Rescue and recovery and efforts are under way in parts of South and Southeast Asia where the number of those killed in devastating floods continues to rise.

Cyclones and extreme weather have killed at least 1,200 people in Sri Lanka, Indonesia and Thailand, according to authorities.

Rescuers are still searching for hundreds of missing people after a cyclone and other storms triggered flooding and landslides in the region.

In a post on X, the King and Queen Camilla said they were “deeply saddened” to hear about devastating storms and added their “heartfelt condolences” to the families of those who have died.

Landslides in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP
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Landslides in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP

A man wades through the flooded street, following heavy rainfall in Wellampitiya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters
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A man wades through the flooded street, following heavy rainfall in Wellampitiya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters

A man uses a makeshift raft at a flooded area, following Cyclone Ditwah in Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters
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A man uses a makeshift raft at a flooded area, following Cyclone Ditwah in Kelaniya, Sri Lanka. Pic: Reuters

Hundreds of thousands in shelters in Sri Lanka

Sri Lankan authorities said about 218,000 people were in temporary shelters after downpours that triggered landslides, primarily in the tea-growing central hill country.

People were seen salvaging belongings from flooded homes along the banks of the Kelani River, near the capital Colombo on Monday.

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Meanwhile, train and flight services have resumed after being disrupted last week, but schools stayed closed, officials said.

Cyclone Ditwah was the “largest and most challenging” natural disaster in Sri Lanka’s history, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake said.

A landslide survivor crosses a section of a damaged road in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP
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A landslide survivor crosses a section of a damaged road in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP

Landslide survivors salvage belongings at the site of a landslide in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP
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Landslide survivors salvage belongings at the site of a landslide in Sarasavigama village near Kandy, Sri Lanka. Pic: AP

A man uses his scarf to protect himself from the rain in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, in Chennai, India. Pic: Reuters
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A man uses his scarf to protect himself from the rain in the aftermath of Cyclone Ditwah, in Chennai, India. Pic: Reuters

The cyclone also brought heavy rain to India’s southern state of Tamil Nadu over the weekend, with authorities saying three people were killed in rain-related incidents.

The storm, which as of 5pm UK time on Monday was about 20km (12 miles) off the coast of the state capital Chennai, has weakened into a “deep depression” and was expected to weaken further in the next few hours, weather officials said.

Amount of rainfall expected in South and Southeast Asia in the next 48 hours
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Amount of rainfall expected in South and Southeast Asia in the next 48 hours

Over a million affected in Indonesia

More than 28,000 homes have been damaged in Indonesia, with 1.4 million people affected by torrential rains following a tropical storm that formed in the Malacca Strait.

The country’s president, Prabowo Subianto, called it a catastrophe and pledged to rebuild infrastructure as he visited the three affected provinces on Monday, where nearly 300,000 people have been displaced by the flooding.

Rescuers search for flood victims in Tanah Datar, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP
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Rescuers search for flood victims in Tanah Datar, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP

A flooded field in Indonesia's West Sumatra province. Pic: Reuters
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A flooded field in Indonesia’s West Sumatra province. Pic: Reuters

Rescuers search for victims at a village affected by flash flooding, in Agam, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP
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Rescuers search for victims at a village affected by flash flooding, in Agam, West Sumatra, Indonesia. Pic: AP

‘Nothing remains’

“The water just rose up into the house and we were afraid, so we fled. Then we came back on Friday, and the house was gone, destroyed,” said Afrianti, 41, who only goes by one name and lives in West Sumatra’s Padang city.

She and her family of nine have made their own tent shelter beside the single wall that remains of their home.

“My home and business are gone, the shop is gone. Nothing remains. I can only live near this one remaining wall,” she said.

Highest one-day rainfall in Thai city for 300 years

In Thailand, flooding in eight southern provinces affected about three million people and led to a major mobilisation of its military to evacuate critical patients from hospitals and reach people stuck in floodwaters for days.

In the worst-affected city of Hat Yai, a southern trading hub, 335mm (13 inches) of rain fell on 21 November, its highest single-day tally in 300 years, followed by days of unrelenting downpours.

More than three million people have been impacted by floods in Thailand
Image:
More than three million people have been impacted by floods in Thailand

People move a car damaged by floods in Songkhla province, southern Thailand. Pic: AP
Image:
People move a car damaged by floods in Songkhla province, southern Thailand. Pic: AP

King offers ‘heartfelt condolences’

King Charles and Queen Camilla responded to the crisis in a statement posted on X and praised the work of emergency responders: “We wish to express our heartfelt condolences to the families of those who have so tragically lost their lives.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the many whose homes have been destroyed and to all who are awaiting news of loved ones missing.

“These disasters remind us of the increasingly urgent need to restore the balance and harmony of Nature.”

Thailand’s Prime Minister Anutin Charnivirakul expects residents to be able to return home within seven days, a government spokesperson said on Monday.

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The first batch of compensation payments was set to be distributed on Monday, starting with 239m baht (£5.6m) for 26,000 people, the spokesperson added.

In Malaysia there have been at least three deaths and authorities are still on alert for a second and third wave of flooding as 11,600 remain in evacuation centres.

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PM issues China warning – and hits out at Brexit

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PM issues China warning - and hits out at Brexit

Sir Keir Starmer has warned China poses “real national security threats to the United Kingdom” – and hit out at Brexit.

During a speech at the Guildhall in London, the prime minister said “wild promises” made to the British people ahead of the referendum have been unfulfilled.

“How it was sold and delivered was simply wrong,” he added. “We are still dealing with the consequences today.”

The Guildhall event is a flagship foreign policy speech for any PM. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The Guildhall event is a flagship foreign policy speech for any PM. Pic: Reuters

Sir Keir argued it would be “utterly reckless” to consider Brexit as a template for future foreign policy – and attacked politicians who have a “corrosive, inward-looking attitude”.

He singled out Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, who have both called for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights – and Zack Polanski, who wants to leave NATO.

Such attitudes “offer grievance rather than hope”, the PM said – accusing them of having “a declinist vision of a lesser Britain, not a Great Britain”.

Although Sir Keir opposed Brexit when in Opposition, he stressed that the vote to leave “was a fair, democratic expression, and I will always respect that”.

He told the Lady Mayor’s Banquet that Labour has made “a decisive move to face outward again and build our power, both hard and soft, which had been so damaged and neglected”.

The Lady Mayor's Banquet took place on Monday night. Pic: Reuters
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The Lady Mayor’s Banquet took place on Monday night. Pic: Reuters

‘Protecting our security is non-negotiable’

Elsewhere in the speech, the prime minister warned the UK needs a policy towards China that recognises the national security threat it poses.

He said: “For years we have blown hot and cold. We had the ‘Golden Age’, which then flipped to an ‘Ice Age’. We reject that binary choice.

“So our response will not be driven by fear, nor softened by illusion. It will be grounded in strength, clarity and sober realism.”

China has been a major issue in Westminster of late following accusations of spying in parliament, and controversy over the new “super embassy” that Beijing wants to build in central London.

Analysis: Not everyone will like what PM had to say


John Craig

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

The China hawks like Iain Duncan Smith, Tom Tugendhat and others on the Conservative benches – and indeed Reform – won’t like this one little bit.

A large part of this speech was devoted to China, and he did talk about the twin-track approach: being tough on national security, but at the same time talking to the Chinese.

He bemoaned the fact that a British prime minister hadn’t talked to the Chinese premier since Theresa May in February 2018.

This was probably the most wide-ranging, perhaps most significant foreign policy speech we’ve heard from Sir Keir Starmer.

It comes against the backdrop of all the political turmoil over the budget, but it was a serious speech. It will please those who want to see the UK taking a much more interventionist approach rather than isolationist.

His supporters will like what they’ve heard here – but not China hawks and Brexiteers.

However, Sir Keir defended plans to visit China in the new year – and said an absence of engagement with the world’s second-biggest economy would be “staggering” and a “dereliction of duty”.

He described it as “a nation of immense scale, ambition, and ingenuity” and a “defining force in technology, trade and global governance”.

‘Huge’ opportunities for businesses

Setting out his own approach, Sir Keir explained: “This is not a question of balancing economic and security considerations. We don’t trade off security in one area, for a bit more economic access somewhere else.

“Protecting our security is non-negotiable – our first duty. But by taking tough steps to keep us secure, we enable ourselves to cooperate in other areas.”

The PM added that he wants to give businesses “the confidence, clarity, and support” to win opportunities in China.

“In areas like financial and professional services, creative industries, pharmaceuticals, luxury goods and more – Great British success stories – the export opportunities are huge, and we will back you to seize them,” he said.

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PM preparing for likely China visit

‘Starmer continues to kowtow to China’

Sky News understands the prime minister is set to approve plans for a controversial Chinese “super embassy” in central London.

A final decision on the planning application for the former Royal Mint site near the Tower of London is due on 10 December after repeated delays.

Concerns were previously raised after Beijing’s planning application featured blacked-out areas.

Since he was elected last year, Sir Keir has been active on the world stage, trumpeting deals with the US, India, and the EU and leading the “coalition of the willing” in support of Ukraine.

But he has also faced criticism from his opponents, who accuse him of spending too much time out of the UK attending international summits rather than focusing on domestic issues.

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‘Many options’ on table for Venezuela

The Tories branded Starmer 'Beijing's useful idiot'. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The Tories branded Starmer ‘Beijing’s useful idiot’. Pic: Reuters

Responding to the prime minister’s speech, shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel said: “From China’s continued flouting of economic rules to transnational repression of Hong Kongers in Britain, Starmer’s ‘reset’ with Beijing is a naive one-way street, which puts Britain at risk while Beijing gets everything it wants.

“Starmer continues to kowtow to China and is captivated by half-baked promises of trade.

“Coming just days after the latest Chinese plot to interfere in our democracy was exposed, his love letter to the Chinese Communist Party is a desperate ploy to generate economic growth following his budget of lies and is completely ill-judged.

“While China poses a clear threat to Britain, China continues to back Iran and Russia, and plots to undermine our institutions. Keir Starmer has become Beijing’s useful idiot in Britain.”

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