‘Abrasive’ Truss turns off floating voters who backed Tories at last general election, YouGov focus group says
On Thursday, the day after the end of the conference season, YouGov hosted a focus group with seven Blue Wall voters from around the South East exclusively for Sky News.
Some natural Conservatives, some former Tony Blair supporters, all with one thing in common: each voted Tory in the 2019 general election. Now their votes are up for grabs.
Here’s what our floating voter focus group found:
None said they were certain to vote Tory at the next election
Of the seven strong group, all of whom voted for Boris Johnson, none were prepared to say they would definitely vote Tory next time. Just one participant of the focus group confirmed they were more likely than not to back Liz Truss’s party next time around – suggesting plenty of doubts are harboured by the rest.
Several in the group were not wildly enthusiastic about the alternative – a Labour government – but felt it was now the default for the country given a profound concern at the existing team in power.
Stephanie, a solicitor, declared: “Do I think she (Truss) can do it? No. I don’t think she has the skills, the experience or the team behind her, and they’re all fighting against themselves.”
The group didn’t appear to think a month ago they would dislike Liz Truss – with Phyllis, an admirer of Margaret Thatcher, saying she started out believing the new PM would be better than Boris Johnson. But the decisions Truss has made in her first four weeks in power have left a profound impact on these voters.
Voters worry the Truss plans are dangerous
The focus group demonstrated just how closely voters had been paying attention to the succession of announcements by the new government, and have taken fright at the change of direction by Truss.
“In order for her plans to take place, it requires an enormous amount of borrowing and that’s putting up interest rates,” said Jane, a hospital inspector. “So, we’re potentially bankrupting the country. What Liz Truss is proposing is very reckless. I don’t think this is the time we should be experimental.”
Phyllis, a cashier, said that Truss was “going in too hard” with her plans without being in touch. Others worried what it would mean in practice.
David, who is retired, said that “you can’t just say growth, growth, growth. What’s the plan behind that?” Only one member of the group, Patrick, was positive and suggested he admired her bravery.
Voters do not warm to Truss’s personality
Just one of the seven members of our focus group at the end of the session voted to say they trust Liz Truss. Even that one backer, Patrick, volunteered that he felt she had less energy, was more like a “schoolteacher” and the “delivery wasn’t there” but liked the core Conservative messages she espouses.
The group did not see her as a unifying figure. Paul, a former local government officer, said she was “very abrasive” in her conference speech. He highlighted her childhood going on CND marches, saying she’s “taking it out” now on the Greenpeace protesters who interrupted the speech.
Jane, a mother of twins, suggested her attack on the “anti-growth coalition” was actually divisive. “I find her a very uncomfortable (watch),” while Jasmine who worked in the financial services industry suggested Truss is at her most passionate when she is attacking others.
These southern swing voters are edging cautiously towards Labour
Three of the seven said they were likely to vote Labour at the next election. Two further members of the group had not made up their mind. For a party which has in recent times struggled to get disaffected Tory voters to consider Labour, this is a good result.
Keir Starmer was described as the “lesser of two evils” by one member of the focus group, most of whom felt the Labour leader currently has the political edge.
David, who worked as an auditor, said that it is now “inevitable” there will be a Labour government – a sense of inevitability is often politically advantageous for a political party. There was not unalloyed enthusiasm, however.
Keir Starmer remains damaged by the Corbyn years and fears of a lurch to the left
These southern Blue Wall voters were still worried by what they saw as the stain of the Corbyn years. Jane said she voted for Boris Johnson in 2019 because of Jeremy Corbyn and antisemitism.
Patrick, who works in the rail industry, highlighted how many of the shadow cabinet served under Jeremy Corbyn.
David said that while Keir Starmer knows he needs to have centrist policies to be electable, “I’m very worried that because of the makeup of the Labour Parliamentary Party, he’ll be under huge pressure to move to the left in government”.
There were concerns for many in the group that a Labour government could mean more strikes: just one, Paul, who worked in local government, said that inflation could mean in some cases they were justified.
Many in Westminster may see Starmer as having cut ties with much of the Corbyn era – the public are not so clear about the difference.
Voters aren’t yet convinced Keir Starmer is strong enough
The Labour leader was seen as honest, decent and a good salesman by most members of the group. But there remains a lingering concern over whether he is tough enough to take on his party if they demand he lurch to the left in power.
Some in the group queried his lack of policy specifics. David said the party is “just very polarised: you’ve got the extreme left and then you’ve got the middle and then Keir Starmer who will say anything.”
Jane said that his difficulty “is a divided party and he struggles to convey his personal convictions.”
Stephanie also felt Starmer is more centrist than a leftwinger “but Labour is funded by the unions so he may have to support them”. Voters were “between a rock and a hard place,” she added.
Voters remain incandescent with Boris Johnson. There’s no hope of a comeback
Thatcher fan Stephanie said she was embarrassed and ashamed by the Conservative party.
David said that having voted Conservative, the more he saw of Boris Johnson the more he was impressed by his intellectual ability … but as time wore on “I just lost complete trust in him; he has no moral compass”.
There was still disgust at partygate, with Jane remaining incandescent at what happened in the Johnson era.
Voters want a general election more than another Tory leadership contest
Patrick, the most ardent Conservative supporter of the group, said that if the Conservatives do not rally round Liz Truss, “they’re committing political suicide”.
Jane, however, said that we were already past the point of no return: “I don’t think she’ll survive. I think she’ll gradually give up on things because she’ll watch her popularity ebb away, then she’ll not be able to manage her MPs and we will have a general election sooner rather than later.
Three of the group said that Tories should get rid of Liz Truss. Four of the seven wanted an early election.
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Core one nation Conservative values still looked popular
The danger for Labour and Starmer is that there is a lingering fear of the left, and a residual affection for core Tory values. Patrick said the Tories should go back to standing for law and order, high growth, low taxes, and supporting aspirations.
Self-styled centrist Jane said that as well as strong public services, she believed in a healthy economy to provide the tax revenues to support them.
Jasmine, who could now support Labour, said the “Tories have still got the interests of the country at heart in essence”.
The focus group participants are profoundly worried about the future
Every member of the group said they were “negative” about Britain’s future.
Stephanie said she had no faith in those in charge to solve the nation’s problems. Jane said she was feeling “quite highly anxious” for her children, adding that there was an “arrogant disconnect” between leaders and voters but what was different this time was the “borderline desperation” epitomised by the use of food banks.
Phyllis felt it was less bad in the 1980s than today because in the Thatcher era there was greater social mobility then.
David said that the difference between the 1970s and now is house prices. Jane concluded by saying she thought “we’re on the edge of some social unrest”, adding she “doesn’t want to see strikes and wants everyone to negotiate but some people are going to be so desperate.”
It is hard to remain in power if that sentiment is widely felt.
The warning was meant for British parliamentarians, of course, but MI5 and the government are also trying to send a signal to China.
We know what you are doing, and in ministers’ words today we “won’t stand for it”.
But in the wake of the collapsed China spying case last month, the security services also want to reestablish a badly dented sense of deterrence.
Politics latest: China responds to MI5’s spy warning to MPs
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Security minister accuses China of interference
That case against two British men accused of spying for Beijing fell apart because officials would not use the words “enemy” or “national security threat” to describe China.
The failure projected a sense of weakness in the face of Chinese espionage efforts, something the government is keen to dispel.
(L-R) Christopher Cash and Christopher Berry had the charges against them withdrawn in September. Pics: Reuters
Those efforts remain persistent and dangerous, security officials insist.
China has always aggressively sought the official and commercial secrets of Western nations.
It regards that mission as a patriotic duty, an essential part of a national project to catch up with and then overtake the West.
In the words of Britain’s security minister, Dan Jarvis, on Tuesday, China seeks “to interfere in our sovereign affairs in favour of its own interests”.
Read more:
Parliamentarians warned of spying attempts from China agents
Indeed, much of China’s technological and economic progress was, until recently, built on intellectual property stolen from rival nations.
Its private sector has been notorious for ripping off and reverse engineering Western know-how, pilfered from joint venture partners or through commercial espionage.
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Intelligence agencies say the Chinese have also hoovered up vast amounts of personal data from all of us through social media platforms like TikTok and other methods, collecting in bulk for now, for sifting and harvesting later.
Officially, the Chinese government denies all these allegations. It has to be said that Western spies are also hard at work snooping on China.
But critics say Western nations have been naive and too trusting of the Chinese threat.
While the British government remains unsure whether to identify China as an enemy or simply a commercial rival, an ambivalence remains, which Beijing will continue doing its best to exploit.
Mass killings and millions forced to flee for their lives have made Sudan the “epicentre of suffering in the world”, according to the UN’s humanitarian affairs chief.
About 12 million people are believed to have been displaced and at least 40,000 killed in the civil war – but aid groups say the true death toll could be far greater.
Tom Fletcher, the UN’s under-secretary-general for humanitarian affairs, told Sky’s The World With Yalda Hakim the situation was “horrifying”.
“It’s utterly grim right now – it’s the epicentre of suffering in the world,” he said of Sudan.
The war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) – who were once allies – started in Khartoum in April 2023 but has spread across the country.
A child receives treatment at a camp in Tawila after fleeing Al Fashir . Pic: AP
The fighting has inflicted almost unimaginable misery on a nation that was already suffering a humanitarian crisis.
Famine has been declared in some areas and Mr Fletcher said there was a “sense of rampant brutality and impunity” in the east African nation.
“I spoke to so many people who told me stories of mass executions, mass rape, sexual violence being weaponised as part of the conflict,” he said.
The fall of a key city
Last month, the RSF captured Al Fashir – the capital of North Darfur state – after a siege of more than 18 months.
Hundreds have been killed and tens of thousands forced to flee, according to the UN and aid groups.
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Explained: Key Sudan city falls
The World Health Organisation said more than 450 people alone were reportedly killed at a maternity hospital in the city.
RSF fighters also went house to house to murder civilians and carried out sexual assault and rape, according to aid workers and displaced people.
The journey to escape Al Fashir goes through areas with no access to food, water or medical help – and Mr Fletcher said people had described to him the “horrors” of trying to make it out.
“One woman [was] carrying her dead neighbour’s malnourished child – and then she herself was attacked on the road as she fled towards Tawila,” he told Sky News.
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Investigating thousands missing in Sudan’s war
Such is the violence in Al Fashir, blood from mass killings appears to stain the sand in satellite images from Yale’s Humanitarian Research Lab, Mr Fletcher added.
“We’ve got to make sure there are teams going in to investigate these atrocities. Al Fashir is a crime scene right now,” he said.
“But we’ve also got to make sure we’ve got protection for civilians from the future atrocities.”
Children at the forefront of suffering
Mr Fletcher told Yalda Hakim that children had “borne the brunt” and made up one in five of those killed in Al Fashir.
He said a child he met “recoiled from me” and “flinched” when he gestured towards a Manchester City logo on his shirt when they were kicking a ball around.
“This is a six-year-old, so what has he seen and experienced to be that terrified of other people?” he asked.
He’s urging the international community to boost funding to help civilians, and a “much more vigorous, energised diplomacy” to try to end the fighting.
“This can’t be so complex, so difficult, that the world can’t fix it,” he told Sky News.
“And we’ve seen some momentum. We’ve seen the quad – Egypt, America, Saudi, the UAE just recently – getting more engaged.
“I’m in daily contact with them all, including the White House envoy, Dr Massad Boulos, but we need to sustain that diplomatic engagement and show the creativity and patience that’s needed.”
Read more:
Genocide unfolding in Darfur, warns Sudanese government
‘Tens of thousands killed in two days’ in Sudan city
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In full: Monday’s The World
Hopes of an imminent end to the violence currently look unlikely.
Sudan’s military leader, General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, said on Friday that his forces would not stop until the RSF is wiped out.
“This war will not come to an end with a truce, but when rebels are destroyed,” he said – according to a statement from Sudan’s ruling council.
“We call on all Sudanese to join the fight, and for those who can carry weapons to come forward.”
The RSF and the Sudanese army have previously agreed to various ceasefire proposals during their two-and-a-half-year-old war, but none have succeeded.
The United Nations Security Council has passed a US resolution which endorses Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza.
Russia, which had circulated a rival resolution, abstained along with China on the 13-0 vote.
The resolution endorses the US president’s 20-point ceasefire plan, which calls for a yet-to-be-established Board of Peace as a transitional authority that Mr Trump would head.
Read more: What does Trump’s Gaza peace plan look like?
US ambassador Mike Waltz said the resolution was “historic and constructive”, but it was “just the beginning”.
“Today’s resolution represents another significant step towards a stable Gaza that will be able to prosper and an environment that will allow Israel to live in security,” he added.
Pic: Reuters
The proposal gives no timeline or guarantee for an independent Palestinian state, only saying “the conditions may finally be in place” after advances in the reconstruction of Gaza and reforms of the Palestinian Authority – now governing parts of the West Bank.
It also says that the US “will establish a dialogue between Israel and the Palestinians to agree on a political horizon for peaceful and prosperous co-existence”.
The language on statehood was strengthened after Arab nations and Palestinians pressured the US over nearly two weeks of negotiations, but it has also angered Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
He has vowed to oppose any attempt to establish a Palestinian state, and on Sunday pledged to demilitarise Gaza “the easy way or the hard way”.
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From October: How will peace plan unfold?
Hamas: International force is ‘in favour of’ Israel
In a statement rejecting the resolutions’ passing, a Hamas spokesperson said that it “falls far short of the political and humanitarian demands and rights of our Palestinian people”.
“The effects and repercussions of this war continue to this day, despite the declared end of the war according to President Trump’s plan,” they added.
“The resolution imposes an international trusteeship mechanism on the Gaza Strip, which our people, their forces, and factions reject.”
The spokesperson then said that “assigning the international force with tasks and roles inside the Gaza Strip, including disarming the resistance, strips it of its neutrality, and turns it into a party to the conflict in favour of the occupation”.
Read more:
Trump asks Israeli president to ‘fully pardon’ Netanyahu
Inside Jordan warehouse holding Gaza aid ‘refused entry by Israel’
The Palestinian Authority, however, issued a statement welcoming the resolution and said it is ready to take part in its implementation.
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