US President Joe Biden has been overheard saying that Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine carries the greatest risk of nuclear weapons being used since the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.
Speaking at a Democratic Party fundraiser in New York on Thursday, Mr Biden said: “For the first time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use of nuclear weapons if, in fact, things continue down the path they are going.
“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis.”
Mr Putin himself has also threatened the use of Russia’s vast nuclear arsenal.
Last month he said: “I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction… and when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, to protect Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal.”
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What is a tactical nuclear weapon?
Why is Biden talking about nuclear Armageddon?
In the face of unexpected, successful counter-offensives by the Ukrainians in recent weeks, some Western intelligence officials and defence analysts believe the Kremlin could resort to drastic measures to save face.
According to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, it could launch a first-strike nuclear attack if the country’s existence was deemed to be at risk.
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Given Mr Putin’s claims about why he started the war, any involvement of NATO troops in the Ukraine conflict could put this plan into action.
And after Moscow staged ‘referenda’ on annexing four areas of Eastern Ukraine, its leader could also use a Ukrainian attack on any of those territories to justify a nuclear strike.
If that did happen, NATO would have to respond, but currently officials have suggested they would only use conventional weapons in retaliation.
Several analysts believe that although Mr Putin says he is “not bluffing” any nuclear activity by Russia would be just as damaging for him – as it would for the West – and is therefore unlikely.
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Professor Michael Clarke: Russia ‘keeping nuke debate going’
What was the Cuban missile crisis?
The Cuban missile crisis is considered the closest the world has ever come to nuclear annihilation.
The 13-day showdown in 1962 came during the Cold War and after the US discovered the Soviet Union had secretly deployed nuclear weapons to Cuba.
Responding to the presence of American ballistic missiles in Italy and Turkey, as well as the failed Bay of Pigs Invasion of Cuba in 1961, Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev agreed to place missiles on the island – just a few hundred miles from the US coastline.
In response, then-US president John F Kennedy ordered a naval quarantine of the island to prevent further missiles from being delivered.
After several days of tension, Mr Kennedy and Mr Khrushchev reached an agreement for the Soviet Union to dismantle their weapons in Cuba in exchange for Mr Kennedy promising the US would not invade the island.
The US also secretly agreed to dismantle all of its medium-range ballistic missiles in Turkey.
It saw the warring geopolitical powers establish the Moscow-Washington hotline to facilitate quick and direct communication between them in the event of tensions escalating again.
Although the two leaders came to an agreement not to deploy the weapons, bitter tensions between the US and Soviet Union until the end of the Cold War in 1991 left the rest of the world fearing a nuclear attack for decades after.
‘Protect and survive’ adverts warned Britons of nuclear attacks
Those who lived through the 1970s and 1980s in Britain will remember the government’s ‘Protect and Survive’ campaign.
Designed to prepare people for a nuclear attack and supposedly give them the best chance of surviving, it came in the form of pamphlets, TV and radio adverts.
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Nuclear threat readiness video from 1975
One example recorded for use on BBC Radio 4 said: “This is the Wartime Broadcasting Service. This country has been attacked with nuclear weapons.
“Communications have been severely disrupted, and the number of casualties and the extent of the damage are not yet known.
“We shall bring you further information as soon as possible. Meanwhile, stay tuned to this wavelength, stay calm and stay in your own house.”
Drills were also carried out in schools, workplaces and public buildings.
Air sirens used in the Second World War were repurposed and would be used to deliver attack warnings and ‘fallout warnings’ in the event of a nuclear incident.
The word ‘fallout’ refers to harmful radioactive material released by nuclear explosions.
Adverts advised people to move to the safest area of the house – known as the ‘fallout’ room – the furthest away from exterior wars and preferably on the ground floor or in the basement.
Families were instructed to close their windows and doors, draw their curtains, and even build an ‘inner refuge’ within the fallout room.
Fashioned by propping a door or wooden plank against the wall, people were advised to cover it with sand-filled bags or suitcases.
Families also had instructions to ration food, water and other essentials in the event of a nuclear strike, as they would be advised to stay in their fallout room for at least two days afterwards.
Their fatalistic tone had a lasting psychological and cultural impact on the population, in a similar way to the 1980s ‘Don’t Die of Ignorance’ HIV/AIDS awareness campaign.
A body has been recovered from a South African mine after police cut off basic supplies in an effort to force around 4,000 illegal miners to resurface.
The body has emerged from the closed gold mine in the northwest town of Stilfontein a day after South Africa’s government said it would not help the illegal miners.
Around 20 people have surfaced from the mineshaft this week as police wait nearby to arrest all those appearing from underground.
It comes a day after a cabinet minister said the government was trying to “smoke them [the miners] out”.
The move is part of the police’s “Close the Hole” operation, whereby officers cut off supplies of food, water and other basic necessities to get those who have entered illegally to come out.
Local reports suggest the supply routes were cut off at the mine around two months ago, with relatives of the miners seen in the area as the stand-off continues.
A decomposed body was brought up on Thursday, with pathologists on the scene, police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe said.
It comes after South African cabinet minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni told reporters on Wednesday that the government would not send any help to the illegal miners, known in the country as zama zamas, because they are involved in a criminal act.
“We are not sending help to criminals. We are going to smoke them out. They will come out. Criminals are not to be helped; criminals are to be prosecuted. We didn’t send them there,” Ms Ntshavheni said.
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Senior police and defence officials are expected to visit the area on Friday to “reinforce the government’s commitment to bringing this operation to a safe and lawful conclusion”, according to a media advisory from the police.
In the last few weeks, over 1,000 miners have surfaced at various mines in South Africa’s North West province, where police have cut off supplies.
Many of the miners were reported to be weak, hungry and sickly after going for weeks without basic supplies.
Illegal mining remains common in South Africa’s old gold-mining areas, with miners going into closed shafts to dig for any possible remaining deposits.
The illegal miners are often from neighbouring countries, and police say the illegal operations involve larger syndicates that employ the miners.
Their presence in closed mines has also created problems with nearby communities, which complain that the illegal miners commit crimes ranging from robberies to rape.
Illegal mining groups are known to be heavily armed and disputes between rival groups sometimes result in fatal confrontations.
In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.
We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.
The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.
They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.
Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.
Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.
He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.
His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.
‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’
Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.
We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.
“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.
He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.
Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.
Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.
“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.
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It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.
Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.
A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.
He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.
“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”
Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.
Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.
Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.
“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”
Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.
He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.
“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.
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These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.
Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.
Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.
“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.
But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.
“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”
Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.
The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.
Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.