Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee show why college football still runs through the SEC
There are a few inarguable truths in life that all of us should abide by. Never get involved in a land war in Asia. Never text your ex after 2 a.m. And never throw darts without an appropriate amount of glass in your house.
OK, that last one’s a little fuzzy, but we assume Jimbo Fisher knew what he was talking about.
But more than any of those things, the one bit of advice Fisher failed to adhere to was this: You come at the king, you best not miss.
In the five months since Fisher’s incendiary news conference in which he called Saban a false god, suggested Alabama cheated with impunity, said he wasn’t worried about a confrontation with his former boss, and, yes, mangled the advice about stones and glass houses, there was almost a palpable sense that, regardless of what happened in the season’s first five weeks, this would be a grudge match for the ages.
Oh, it was.
Both teams went to battle without their starting quarterbacks. Of course, one of those QBs was the Heisman Trophy winner, but like Texas A&M‘s NIL deals, it’s best not to dwell on details.
For the Aggies, Haynes King actually played well, despite being tormented by a ferocious Alabama defensive front. Will Anderson Jr. danced past the A&M O-line like a guy who had too many Mountain Dews trying to find the bathroom at a crowded cocktail party, racking up eight QB hurries on the night. Still, King threw for 253 yards and two touchdowns and was poised to deliver the game winner until — well, it’s hard to describe what happened on the final play of the game. “Despicable” was a word Fisher used back in May, and it seems fitting now.
0:22
No. 1 Alabama survives a last-second scare from Texas A&M to win a thriller in Tuscaloosa 24-20.
For the Tide, Jahmyr Gibbs led a rushing attack that racked up 288 yards on the night. In Young’s place, Jalen Milroe completed just 12 passes, but three went for touchdowns. Alabama turned the ball over four times and missed two field goals, but A&M could only do so much with the advantages. Fisher, of course, is no god. (Though you should probably go look into his “deal.”)
In the end, there was nothing pretty about Alabama’s 24-20 win. But a cleanly played game would’ve been a disappointment. This one played out exactly as it was supposed to, a mirror image of the battle of words between the two coaches — a frenetic, ugly, ill-advised slugfest in which both teams did as much damage to themselves as they did to their opponent.
It was that kind of week in the SEC.
Georgia thumped Auburn, a much-needed sense of dominion against a team the Bulldogs were supposed to beat handily. Still, Georgia has now gone three straight games — and 117 consecutive throws — without a touchdown pass. Will the next challenge be as accommodating as Auburn? And seriously, is Auburn just keeping Bryan Harsin around for fun now? The man deserves a more compassionate end.
Ole Miss fell behind early against Vanderbilt, then turned on the afterburners and roared to a 52-28 win. The Rebels are 6-0 with three winnable games in front of them before a date with Alabama.
Tennessee, too, remains undefeated, annihilating LSU 40-13 for the Volunteers’ first win in Baton Rouge since Brian Kelly’s ancestors first landed on the swampy shores of Louisiana to set up a homestead so many years ago.
It was a Saturday in which the SEC offered a reminder that it is still the chief power broker in the country, with the Tide, Bulldogs, Rebels and Vols now accounting for more than a quarter of the country’s remaining undefeated teams. (And Shane Beamer offered his own reminder with dancing and cheap sunglasses).
Climate check ? pic.twitter.com/z9yv0lY14e
— Gamecock Football (@GamecockFB) October 9, 2022
And yet Ohio State demolished Michigan State and has a strong case for the title of the nation’s best team. At the very least, they’ve probably made Spartans boosters a bit concerned about that $95 million investment they made in Mel Tucker. Ohio State has beaten him twice since that deal was announced, by a combined score of 105-27.
And the Red River… what are we calling it now? Rivalry? Revue? Rigmarole? They’re all good. Regardless, Texas rolled Oklahoma 49-0. The Sooners have now lost three in a row for the first time since 1998. Their last two losses have come by a combined 80 points — or three points more than the 10 losses the team had between 2017 and 2021. Quinn Ewers returned for Texas and turned the state fair into Oklahoma’s Dustbowl 2.0, a cloud of misery that John Steinbeck would’ve found too depressing for publication. Depressing, too, is the thought of what might’ve become of this season for the Longhorns had Ewers not gotten hurt in the first half of their game against Alabama.
Instead, we leave Week 6 largely as we entered it. Teams ranked in the top 10 went 9-0. The status quo remains.
The narcissist in us won’t allow us to believe bigger surprises await. Thank goodness Fisher is here to remind us we’re not gods.
TCU-Kansas lives up to the hype
There’s a theory that suggests computing technology increases exponentially, and if that’s true, then there will come a time when artificial intelligence far surpasses human intelligence. And if that’s true, then logic might follow that some society has already reached that point, and as such, there is a hypothesis that our entire existence now is simply a computer simulation.
Until this week, simulation theory existed largely on the fringes of metaphysics, and most everyone agreed it could never be proved.
But then, on the same Saturday as the Red River game and the long-awaited showdown between Jimbo Fisher and Nick Saban, the center of the college football world was instead in Lawrence, Kansas. That, friends, is an inarguable glitch in the matrix.
Imagine back in May, when Jimbo Fisher sent an army of private detectives to sift through Nick Saban’s trash, that Texas A&M- Alabama would be but an afterthought because Kansas was 5-0.
Imagine, back when Oklahoma fans welcomed home prodigal son Brent Venables with thunderous approval, that the Sooners’ showdown against Texas would be a lopsided embarrassment, with Oklahoma being shut out 49-0.
Imagine, when Texas landed Ewers and A&M signed the No. 1 recruiting class in the country, and Houston was hailed as a potential playoff party crasher, that instead, the unquestioned top team in Texas would be TCU.
Perhaps the truly wild part of this entirely impossible scenario is that Saturday’s TCU-Kansas showdown wasn’t overhyped. If anything, we massively underestimated how much drama the Frogs and Jayhawks could muster.
TCU’s onetime backup QB now looks like a Heisman contender. Max Duggan threw for 308 yards, ran for 55 more and accounted for four touchdowns. Every time Kansas steadied itself and got off the mat in the second half, Duggan delivered another haymaker, leading TCU to touchdowns on four of its last five drives of the game.
Meanwhile, the fairy-tale season at Kansas played out — well, like a fairy tale on Saturday, when the Jayhawks turned to a magic Bean to salvage their fading fortunes. Jalon Daniels left the game near the end of the first half with an injured shoulder, turning over the reins to Jason Bean, who threw four second-half TD passes, leading the Jayhawks back from the brink of the abyss again and again down the stretch.
The second half of Saturday’s game saw Kansas erase leads of 10-3, 17-10, 24-17 and 31-24, and only a failed fourth-down conversion with 37 seconds remaining kept the Jayhawks from a chance to tie it at 38, too.
The game was decided not by inches but by margins undetectable by the world’s most powerful microscopes, as Derius Davis tiptoed the sideline for TCU and Quentin Skinner tapped his knee in the back of the end zone on a late score to keep Kansas alive.
0:55
Quentin Skiner does a great job as he comes down inbounds for the Kansas’ touchdown as they tie it 31-31.
It was a battle rife with cinematic drama that not only warranted the title of Week 6’s best matchup but will undoubtedly be in the conversation as one of the most entertaining games of the 2022 season.
And it happened at Kansas.
And yes, Kansas’ record is no longer unblemished. Reality — if that’s what we’re living in — had to return eventually. And no, TCU isn’t likely to overshadow college football’s behemoths for long. And yes, had Ewers been healthy all season, it might well be the Longhorns who are the talk of the sport now.
But for one magical afternoon, nothing in college football mattered as much or offered more drama than the happenings in Kansas. As the great Jasper Beardsley said, “What a time to be alive.”
That is, if we’re not all actually in a simulation.
Big wins out west
Don’t sleep on the Pac-12. OK, sleep a little on the Pac-12. The games are on late. You’ve got things to do on Sunday, and Home Depot opens early. Still, be sure to at least check the scores and highlights, because for the first time since the Hoover administration, the Pac-12 has some serious playoff juice.
UCLA staked its claim to contender status with an incredibly impressive 43-32 win over Utah. Dorian Thompson-Robinson was 1 yard shy of throwing for 300, and Zach Charbonnet was 2 short of rushing for 200, and the defense came up with one critical play after another.
The Bruins’ first four wins were far from emphatic, but the past two weeks, they’ve largely had their way with Washington and Utah, making a serious statement that Chip Kelly’s past decade was like that season of “Dallas” that turned out to all be a dream. Seriously, Kelly supposedly coached the San Francisco 49ers for a year. There’s no way that really happened.
0:21
UCLA gets on the board first as Dorian Thompson-Robinson extends into the end zone for a touchdown.
Meanwhile, USC avoided a potential trap game against Washington State, and we think it’s time the pundits gave credit where it’s due. Yes, Lincoln Riley has injected new life into the Trojans’ program, and sure Caleb Williams, Mario Williams and Jordan Addison have been excellent. But the real hero of this team? Travis Dye‘s mustache. Not since Tom Selleck has L.A. had such fantastic facial hair.
Two weeks ago, it looked like Washington could be a real playoff contender, too, but Saturday proved an absolute embarrassment in a 45-38 loss to Arizona State. Xazavian Valladay ran for 111 yards, caught four passes, scored twice and accounted for an all-time record in Scrabble points as the Sun Devils suddenly look frisky now that Herm Edwards is out.
And if Week 1 convinced us to give up on Oregon, the Ducks keep trying to remind us that anyone can lose to Georgia by 46. Oh, sure, not Auburn or Missouri or Kent State … but, you know, good teams. The Ducks dominated Arizona and have topped 40 in five straight games. And are we ready to love Bo Nix again? He’s like that boyfriend you’ve decided to dump a dozen different times, but then he shows up with In-N-Out burgers at 2 a.m. and you figure, “Ah, another week can’t hurt.”
This list of genuine playoff contenders isn’t long, but as the season approaches its midpoint, the Pac-12 has three teams that fit the bill. That’s three more than it’s had at this time of year in a long time.
Pokes keep winning
Oklahoma State is the No. 7 team in the country, is 5-0 for the second straight season and has an impressive win over Baylor in its back pocket. But it might still be fair to ask a pretty basic question: Are the Pokes all that good?
Yes, there have been dominant stretches — the fourth quarter vs. Arizona State, the first half against Baylor, Spencer Sanders‘ take-no-prisoners late touchdown drive Saturday — but those always seem to be paired with other stretches in which Oklahoma State can’t get out of its own way.
That was largely the story Saturday against Texas Tech, a team that has also spent much of the season looking like Nic Cage’s IMDB page — beat Texas one week, make “The Wicker Man” the next — and once again, it’s not entirely clear who played well.
Texas Tech started its third different QB of the season, and Behren Morton threw for 379 yards. Oklahoma State relied on the veteran Sanders, who accounted for three total TDs despite completing less than half his passes.
Oklahoma State went up 17-7. Texas Tech went to the half with a 24-20 lead. The Cowboys scored. The Red Raiders scored. The Pokes led by just 3 entering the final quarter, then a game filled with offensive fireworks slowed to a crawl. One drive is “Leaving Las Vegas,” and the next is “Bangkok Dangerous.”
Of all the teams to start 5-0 this season, only Coastal Carolina allowed more points in the process than Oklahoma State. Sanders is completing just 56% of his throws against Power 5 foes. And yet, for a few drives every game, Oklahoma State looks like it’s poised for another “Raising Arizona.” The Cowboys are a paradox wrapped in an enigma topped with a mullet.
Abanikanda runs wild
Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi promised his team would run more this season after saying goodbye to QB Kenny Pickett and offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. Mission accomplished.
Pitt fed tailback Izzy Abanikanda 36 times during Saturday’s 45-29 win over Virginia Tech, and he made every one of them count.
Abanikanda rushed for 320 yards and six touchdowns in the win, becoming the first Power 5 or BCS conference back to go for more than 300 yards and six scores since Ricky Williams did it in 1998. After the game, Mike Ditka immediately texted Saints management and suggested trading as many picks as it takes to get Abanikanda in the 2023 draft.
2:31
Israel Abanikanda can’t be stopped as he rushes for six touchdowns, tying the Panthers’ school record set back in 1910.
For Pitt, Abanikanda’s big day was a salve for an offense that struggled mightily last week against Georgia Tech. For Virginia Tech, the Hokies are off to their worst start (2-4) since 1991.
But the story, of course, was Abanikanda, who now leads the country with 13 scrimmage TDs. His 320 yards were the fourth most in a game in ACC history, according to ESPN Stats & Information research, and he passed Tony Dorsett for the most in a single game in Pitt history.
Now, if some newspaper doesn’t run with the headline “Pitt’s Abanikanda don’t want none unless it’s touchdowns, hon” on Sunday, then journalism is officially dead.
Heisman Five
Bryce Young missed Week 6. Jalon Daniels left early. A half-dozen other big-name QBs also dealt with injuries that cost them some or all of Saturday’s action, meaning it was a great time to get some new names into the Heisman mix.
1. Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud
Stroud threw six TDs to Ohio State receivers and, because he’s a man of the people, one to Michigan State, too. It was Stroud’s fourth game this season throwing four TDs or more. Our working theory is that he’s been catching up on “House of the Dragon” on his sideline iPad, and so he’s in a rush to score on every possession to get back to his stories.
2. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker
Hooker led Tennessee to another dominant win, throwing for 239 yards and two touchdowns without a pick. Since Hooker’s first start for the Vols in Week 3 of last season, he’s 12-5 with 41 passing touchdowns (20 more than his former team, Virginia Tech, has in that span) while throwing just two interceptions (19 fewer than SEC East rival Florida).
3. USC QB Caleb Williams
Williams struggled at times against Washington State’s defense, completing just over half his throws for just 188 yards. But he tossed two TDs, converted several big third downs and kept USC undefeated. But if any Oklahoma fans are reading this, just know that he’s not actually happy and he keeps all your letters in a lavender-scented box next to his bed.
4. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson
In just his 304th start (note: that’s a rough estimate), Thompson-Robinson set the UCLA record for career touchdown passes in Saturday’s impressive win over Utah. In all, he accounted for five TDs on Saturday, averaged 13 yards per throw, and utterly flummoxed one of the Pac-12’s best defenses.
5. Alabama RB Jahmyr Gibbs and Alabama LB Will Anderson Jr.
OK, we’re probably not permanently dropping Young from our Heisman contenders, but for this week at least, let’s recognize how good two of his teammates were. Gibbs carried 21 times for 154 yards, and since Young went down with a shoulder injury last week, Gibbs has 328 rushing yards, is averaging better than 10 yards per carry and has scored twice. Meanwhile, Anderson racked up eight QB hurries and spent enough time in A&M’s backfield that Jimbo Fisher assumed his NIL collective owed Gibbs money.
The most college football thing to happen in Week 6
Jackson State ran its record to 5-0 as Shedeur Sanders threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns in a 26-12 win over Alabama State. That puts Deion Sanders’ team at 3-0 in conference play, but he has a big, fat zero when it comes to true SWAC-ness.
Alabama State coach Eddie Robinson — no relation to the longtime Grambling coach — was less than pleased with Coach Prime’s apparent prima donna attitude before the game.
“He ain’t SWAC. I’m SWAC.”? Alabama State HC Eddie Robinson about Jackson State HC Deion Sanders #bamastate #swac #swarmas1 #theeibelieve pic.twitter.com/sJuZjnSXdB
— The Wild Card (@wildcard2k) October 8, 2022
Robinson said he “prays [Sanders] doesn’t get a Power 5 job” so they can play again next season and, in theory, exact some revenge.
You hear that, Auburn? No hiring Deion. We need more SWAC grudge matches.
The other most college football thing to happen
Give Florida State credit. Even after five of the most miserable seasons in school history, the Seminoles keep finding new ways to inflict pain on their fanbase.
On Saturday, the latest blow came from the punter because it’s not enough to simply throw salt in FSU fans’ wounds. The Noles needed to dump a jug of cheap tequila on top of all that salt.
Alex Mastromanno was either running a fake punt or trying to rugby punt or wanted to see what would happen if every Florida State fan on the planet slammed their heads against a wall at the same time. It’s hard to say which was his true motivation. But the end result is that, rather than take off running and likely picking up a first down, he batted a punt beyond the line of scrimmage, setting up NC State at the FSU 13-yard line.
0:38
Alex Mastromanno fakes a punt for the Seminoles, then at the last minute forgets where he is, accidentally punting past the line of scrimmage.
One drive earlier, Devin Leary was sidelined with a shoulder injury, leaving NC State with virtually no answers on offense, but it didn’t matter. Christopher Dunn booted a 53-yard field goal to pull the Wolfpack to within 1, then managed another field goal on their next drive to pull ahead 19-17.
FSU still had a chance to win late, but because Mike Norvell had minimal confidence in his kicker, he had Jordan Travis throw into the end zone on a second-and-8 play from the NC State 22, and it was picked off.
NC State trailed 17-13 when Leary went down. It attempted just two passes the rest of the way, and still pulled off the 19-17 win.
There’s pain. There’s unimaginable pain. And then there’s what happened to FSU on Saturday.
Next up? Clemson.
Purdue finally fends off a comeback bid
The football gods had not been kind to Purdue to start the season. The Boilermakers led in the final minute of each of their first five games, only to see Penn State emerge with a four-point win on a TD with 57 seconds to play, and Syracuse win by 2 on a TD with just seven seconds remaining.
It made for a somber backdrop as Taulia Tagovailoa hit Corey Dyches from 18 yards out for a potential game-tying touchdown with 35 seconds remaining Saturday at Maryland, but at long last, Purdue’s luck changed.
1:13
Maryland scores a touchdown, then appears to haul in a game-tying 2-point conversion, but the play is called back and the Terps fail on their next attempt.
The Terps appeared to have tied the game on a 2-point try in the back corner of the end zone, but the score was waved off due to a flag for an illegal man downfield (a penalty that has become college football’s equivalent of your buddy who ruins everyone’s fun by refusing to split the check evenly because he only had a salad). Maryland’s second crack at the 2-point try came up short, and Purdue escaped with a 31-29 win.
Purdue looks like the favorite now in the topsy-turvy Big Ten West, where the Boilermakers are tied for first with — surely this can’t be right? — Nebraska, among others, though no one from the division is ranked in the AP top 25. It’s nice to see that, while the Big Ten is stealing teams from the Pac-12, it managed to steal only the vibe of the ACC Coastal.
Victory bells for Leach’s Bulldogs
That unbearable clanging noise still ringing in your ears is simply the Mississippi State bandwagon rolling through SEC country.
Mike Leach’s crew dominated Arkansas 40-17 on Saturday, with Will Rogers setting the SEC record for career completions in the win, topping Aaron Murray’s previous mark of 921 in just his 28th career game.
Arkansas, which played without QB KJ Jefferson, suffered a third straight loss, dooming a once-promising season to a 1-3 mark in SEC play.
For Mississippi State, it was a statement win for a multitude of reasons. The defense was stout, fending off all three of Arkansas’ fourth-down attempts, stuffing drives at its own 8, 29 and 37. The ground game excelled, too. While Leach typically throws the ball between 40 and 600 times per game, the Bulldogs actually racked up 173 yards and three touchdowns on the ground Saturday. It was the most rushing yards by a Leach-coached team since Washington State went for 253 against Cal in 2016.
And, of course, the Bulldogs still threw the ball with ease. Rogers finished with 395 passing yards and three TDs, including one to Caleb Ducking — who now has seven TD catches on the season, offering a rare opportunity for Mississippi State fans to actually intend to type the word “ducking” in text messages.
The party could come to a screeching halt over the next month, however, as Mississippi State goes to Kentucky and Alabama in back-to-back weeks before hosting Auburn and Georgia.
Under-the-radar play of the day
With two interceptions, it was hardly Drake Maye‘s finest day for North Carolina, but he still threw for 309 yards — averaging 11 yards per attempt — and tossed two touchdowns, including this ridiculous completion to Josh Downs that was reminiscent of either Patrick Mahomes or Neo in “The Matrix.”
DRAKE MAYE OFF HIS BACK FOOT ? @UNCFootball #SCtop10 pic.twitter.com/3AEBkQ4mCr
— ACC Network (@accnetwork) October 8, 2022
The Tar Heels are now 5-1 and in clear control of the ACC Coastal. Perhaps as significant for the Heels is their defense held back-to-back ACC opponents to 24 points or fewer for the first time since Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2020 season.
Under-the-radar game of the day
Georgia Tech is now 2-0 since moving on from former coach Geoff Collins. It’s fair to wonder — if he’d just let the team eat something other than Waffle House, perhaps the Yellow Jackets might’ve started playing this well much earlier.
On Saturday, Tech built a 20-6 lead on Duke entering the fourth quarter, but the Blue Devils refused to roll over. A punt return for a TD brought Duke to within one possession, and on the final drive of regulation, the Blue Devils went 80 yards on 14 plays before Riley Leonard hit Nicky Dalmolin for a TD with eight seconds remaining to force overtime.
In the extra frame, however, Georgia Tech kicked an easy field goal, then watched as Duke went backward on its possession, with kicker Charlie Ham missing from 52 yards.
Now, who wants to celebrate with a bacon-egg-and-cheese hash brown bowl?
Big bets and bad beats
UConn went on the road against FIU on Saturday as a 5.5-point favorite. It marked the first time the Huskies were favored in any FBS game against a team not named UMass since 2017 vs. East Carolina, and the first time as a road favorite since 2015 against Tulane. It was due credit for a team that is, at long last, not a total embarrassment. Indeed, Saturday’s 33-12 win over FIU means the Huskies are on a winning streak! They’ve now won two games in a row and have three wins in a season for the first time since 2017. UConn has set an incredibly low bar for itself, and it’s nice to see Jim Mora casually stride over it like Lamar Jackson strutting into the end zone.
The magical start to Kansas’ season came to an end against TCU, but Jayhawks backers are still riding high. Kansas was a 7.5-point underdog at kickoff, and while it lost 38-31, that’s still a cover — the ninth straight for the Jayhawks dating back to last year’s 57-56 win over Texas. Since then, Kansas is 6-3, but all three losses have come by seven or less.
As the great Chris Fallica noted this week, there have been 18 SEC games over the past five seasons in which a team was favored by 30 or more, as Georgia was against Auburn for much of the week leading up to kickoff. The favorite in those games is just 6-12 against the spread, with the Dawgs a woeful 1-4. So, lucky for UGA backers that the line moved down to 27.5 in time for Saturday’s game. Auburn was on course to cover until Georgia engineered a late 11-play, 65-yard drive that included two third-down conversions (one on third-and-15) and was capped by a Branson Robinson TD run. Final score: Georgia 42, Auburn 10, and a garbage-time cover that beleaguered Bulldogs fans deserved.
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Bill Connelly
The 2025 college football season opened in earnest with incredible weather in most locales (Lubbock, Texas, aside), exciting and jam-packed environments … and very few points. No one topped 17 points in either of Saturday’s top-10 matchups, FBS teams averaged only 23.5 points per game against other FBS teams, and throughout the country, rebuilt offensive lines and new quarterbacks seemed at a disadvantage against rebuilt defenses.
What did we learn about how 2025 will play out? Not a ton. The season doesn’t end for almost four more months, after all. As LSU coach Brian Kelly said to ESPN’s Molly McGrath after his Tigers’ win over Clemson, the only statement his team made Saturday night was “that we got to 1-0. I mean, this is a long season. This is a journey, and this wasn’t our destination. We have to play better … but that’s why I love playing games like this, on the road, against a top-five team. It just gets you better for the rest of the season.”
Kelly is right, of course. But that’s absolutely no fun. From Thursday evening through Monday night, there were so many games and a lot to react to. It wouldn’t be fun if we didn’t let ourselves overreact a bit. We might even be right about a thing or two!
I’m not a “hot takes” person by nature, but Week 1 is the perfect time to fire off a few. So from Arch Manning, Bill Belichick and Alabama having really bad times to Tulane and Iowa State looking like playoff teams and Jonah Coleman looking like a Heisman contender, here are some (perhaps foolish) overreactions to everything we just saw.
Arch stinks! Matt Patricia for the Broyles Award!
OK, there might be a little hyperbole there. But it’s like Saturday’s Texas–Ohio State game — a 14-7 win for the defending national champs over the visiting Longhorns — was designed in a lab to maximize the potential takes emanating from it. New Ohio State defensive coordinator Matt Patricia looked like the greatest defensive coach in the history of the sport, and new Texas starting quarterback Arch Manning, after an offseason of limitless hype, laid an egg on national television.
First things first: My apologies to Chip Ferguson. In the intro to my Friday preview column, I referenced the 1988 Florida State-Miami game, in which preseason No. 1 FSU entered the game as just four-point favorites over the defending national champions — the narrowest point-spread for a preseason No. 1 since at least 1978 — and got rocked by the Canes 31-0. Ferguson started for FSU and was benched by the third quarter because of poor play, and I mentioned that Manning would almost assuredly clear the Ferguson bar.
He did. Barely.
Ferguson vs. Miami (1988): 10-for-16 for 121 yards and two interceptions — 101.0 passer rating
Manning vs. Ohio State (2025): 17-for-30 for 170 yards, one TD and one INT — 108.6 passer rating
Manning completed three passes for 65 yards late in the fourth quarter in Texas’ lone TD drive of the game. That allowed him to narrowly clear the bar. But it was about the only one he cleared. Manning was nervous and inaccurate for large portions of Saturday’s affair, and when he had time to look for an open receiver, none came open. With Ohio State’s all-world safety Caleb Downs lurking in the back, leading returning receivers DeAndre Moore Jr. and Ryan Wingo combined to catch four of 12 passes for 41 yards, and the Buckeyes secondary blanketed Manning’s options.
I got a lot of mileage out of the “Matt Patricia hasn’t been successful in a job since 2016” line this offseason — what can I say, I enjoyed saying it — but any time I said it, I also acknowledged that it might turn out that nothing but raw talent matters. Ohio State clearly has a lot of that.
I couldn’t tell if Patricia was doing anything impressive schematically; all I knew for sure was, wherever Manning and Texas looked for a matchup advantage, they failed to find one. It seemed like they thought they’d run the ball behind their interior line, and they created some rushing efficiency overall, but they got stuffed on fourth-and-short twice, including once on fourth-and-goal from the OSU 1. And wherever Manning was looking downfield, he rarely saw what he wanted. He was forced to check down repeatedly: Only five of his 17 completions gained double-digit yardage, and when he tried to force the issue in the third quarter, his pass was picked off by Jermaine Matthews Jr.
There are quite a few differences between coaching at the pro and collegiate levels, but the biggest one might be that, at the right school, you can lean heavily on talent advantages than you can in the pros and put players where they need to be to exploit those advantages. What we saw Saturday certainly suggests Ohio State will have massive advantages over just about any offense it will face over the next three months.
The major question for the Buckeyes, at this point, is what advantages will they find on offense? Because, for as poor as Texas’ offense might have been Saturday, it was the more successful unit of the two.
Total yards: Texas 336, OSU 203
Yards per play: Texas 5.0, OSU 3.8
Success rate: Texas 43.3%, OSU 33.3%
First downs: Texas 16, OSU 11
Ohio State won because its defense stopped Texas inside the OSU 10 and forced the game’s only turnover. The Buckeyes offense finished only two drives inside the Texas 40, running backs CJ Donaldson Jr. and James Peoples averaged just 3.0 yards per carry, and in his first collegiate start, Julian Sayin went just 13-for-20 for 126 yards. Jeremiah Smith, the No. 1 player heading into the season, caught six of 10 balls for just 43 yards, and Carnell Tate‘s 40-yard touchdown catch early in the fourth quarter was very well timed and OSU’s only gain of more than 16 yards all game.
Neither of these teams is a finished product, and with both teams’ overall inexperience, especially on offense, it will take a while for them to become their finished versions. But while I billed this game as a fantastic opportunity to answer a lot of my questions about these two teams, I think I finished the game with more questions than when I started.
I was wrong about Alabama
The most disappointing thing about Alabama’s performance Saturday wasn’t quarterback Ty Simpson, though he wasn’t good enough (4.9 yards per dropback and as many negative plays as 20-yard gains). It wasn’t receiver Ryan Williams dropping multiple passes and catching just five of 11 targets for 30 yards. It wasn’t an experienced offensive line that I thought would hold the biggest advantage in the ballgame, but it did no such thing. It wasn’t even a Bama secondary that gave up a couple of big plays to speedy receivers Squirrel White and Jaylin Lucas. That stuff happens.
The most disappointing thing about the Tide’s performance in Tallahassee was how totally unprepared they looked.
Felt like old times tonight!! 🍢
— Coach Gus Malzahn (@CoachGusMalzahn) August 30, 2025
When FSU’s Mike Norvell hired Gus Malzahn as offensive coordinator and brought former Malzahn recruit Tommy Castellanos aboard to run the offense, it was fair to make a few assumptions about how things would go. Malzahn has built lots of fun rushing attacks around mobile quarterbacks through the years, and Castellanos is similar to Kyler Murray with his legs and running style (and very much not like Murray with his arm). It was easy to craft a vision of a motion-friendly FSU offense occasionally utilizing misdirection and giving Castellanos freedom to run and make things happen.
FSU drove 75, 65 and 52 yards and scored 17 points in its first three drives, then began the second half with a 68-yard TD drive. The progress slowed from there, but the Noles uncorked a 10-play, 75-yard drive to ice the win midway through the fourth quarter. Castellanos rushed for 86 yards, and five FSU ball carriers had at least one 10-yard rush. (Micahi Danzy had gains of 26 and 32 yards among his three carries.) When Castellanos was at Boston College last season, opponents quickly learned that, instead of attempting to sack him when he dropped to pass, it was best to corral him and force him to make plays with his arm. It was as if Bama’s defenders hadn’t watched any film. Time and again, they flew in for the sack, only to see him spin away and make a play with his legs.
Almost everyone on the Bama offense — including a few somewhat known players like Williams, who is expected to make big contributions this year — performed poorly, aside from receiver Germie Bernard and tight end Josh Cuevas (though even they combined to catch only 11 of 21 passes). But when the defense was getting bullied and Bama needed its offensive stars to keep up, they instead disappeared for swaths of time. FSU went 7-for-14 (50%) on third and fourth downs, while Bama went only 8-for-22 (36%), and though the Tide looked like they might come back from down 17 points, they never got the ball with a chance to tie.
My general approach to Bama heading into this season was pretty simple: If Simpson is good, Bama is great. Coach Kalen DeBoer’s pre-Bama track record was almost flawless, and I thought if Simpson was solid and the pass rush improved a little, the Tide would have everything they needed. But neither Simpson nor Bama’s pass rushers (in either sacks or containment) performed well enough, and the units I wasn’t concerned about also failed to come through. It was an all-around dud, starting with the coaching staff, and it’s not like they lacked motivation. This is a long season, and the Tide have time to recover. But it takes your GPA a while to rebound from an F on the first test of the semester.
This section is primarily about Bama, but Castellanos & Co. deserve massive praise. They made the Tide look unprepared. I’m still not sure what to expect from the Seminoles in 2025, and I still have the memory of Castellanos running out of steam after a lovely start to 2024. The crowd at Doak Campbell Stadium was loud enough to almost drown out Joe Tessitore on the TV call, and the team looked like it had all the motivation it lacked last season. And when you’re already 50% to last year’s win total after one game, you’re doing something right.
I was right about Clemson (and Miami is winning the ACC)
As questionable as it may have been to buy lots of Bama stock this offseason, I certainly felt justified in not buying Clemson stock. The Tigers led the nation in returning production in 2025 and were extremely likely to improve, but I struggled with the idea that a team that has averaged an 18.5 SP+ ranking and 3.5 losses per season over the past four years could suddenly become a top-five team, as poll voters suggested.
Clemson is obviously talented and will threaten to win the ACC this year. But a 17-10 home loss to LSU on Saturday night certainly threw doubt on the Tigers’ supposed top-five bona fides.
The Clemson run defense, a liability in 2024 despite loads of blue-chippers on the line, was mostly solid Saturday. Of course, the visiting Tigers were terribly inefficient on the ground last season, and LSU’s Caden Durham and Zavion Thomas still combined for 100 yards in 20 carries. Still, when you hold LSU — a team that hasn’t ranked in the defensive SP+ top 20 since 2019 — to 17 points, you should like your chances, and the experienced Clemson offense simply couldn’t move the ball. Only two of Clemson’s 58 snaps gained more than 20 yards, and half gained one or fewer. And with the game in the balance, Cade Klubnik‘s final 14 dropbacks netted 47 yards and a dreadful 14.3% success rate. Clemson has now lost its past seven games against ranked SEC foes.
Like any other Week 1 disappointment, the Tigers obviously have time to rebound and grow. But the whole point of buying stock in a team with actual experience — as opposed to all the highly ranked teams with major continuity and/or experience issues heading into 2025 — was that it would be pretty fully formed when the season began. The Tigers might not have that much room to grow, and within the ACC they now have to worry about a Miami team that actually has its act together.
Well, maybe. Miami looked really good to start 2024, too, so we know it can backfire to fully buy in on the Hurricanes. But with a 27-24 win over Notre Dame on Sunday night, they scored their first victory over a top-10 team in nine tries and nearly eight years. The Miami offense fell into a second-half funk as the Irish came back from 14 down to tie the game, but Georgia transfer Carson Beck threw for 205 yards and two touchdowns, North Dakota State transfer CharMar Brown moved the chains twice in short yardage on Miami’s final drive, and Carter Davis‘ 47-yard field goal provided the winning points. And against what is supposed to be an excellent Notre Dame offensive line, Miami sacked CJ Carr twice on the Irish’s final possession.
It was an excellent start against what is, on paper, the best team Miami will face in the regular season. LSU transfer CJ Daniels and freshman Malachi Toney combined for 11 catches, 128 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the single best play of Week 1. And at the very least, Miami erased the bitter taste from its poor 2024 finish.
0:59
CJ Daniels makes jaw-dropping 1-handed TD grab for Miami
CJ Daniels goes full extension for a one-handed touchdown grab to put Miami up late in the first half.
Rapid-fire overreactions
The big games were the big games, but we had so much else to overreact to. Here are some quicker takes:
A defensive player is winning the Heisman
Don’t ask me which one, though if Ohio State let Caleb Downs line up on offense a few times, I think we might have our answer. But some defender needs to get on a roll because offenses stunk in Week 1 — OK, some didn’t, but go with me here — and there has never been a better chance for an Ndamukong Suh-like charge from a defender (only, with the proper respect from Heisman voters this time).
Indeed, all the major offensive measures are down compared to where they were this time last year. In Week 1 of last season, in FBS vs. FBS games, teams averaged 2.11 points per drive and 5.52 yards per play; this year it was 1.9 points per drive and 5.4 yards per play. Efficiency numbers actually improved — success rate rose from 40.6% to 41.2%, completion rate rose from 61.0% to 61.3%, sack rates fell from 6.0% to 5.1% and overall turnover rates improved slightly from 2.0% to 1.7%.
So what’s the problem? Big plays vanished: The percentage of completions gaining at least 20 yards fell from 16.3% to 14.7%, and despite the uptick in completion rate (and the downtick in sacks), average yards per dropback fell from 6.4 to 6.0. You know how pro defenses adapted to force Patrick Mahomes to settle for checkdown after checkdown because they were basically forming an umbrella at the back? It appears college defenses are doing the same thing. They’re forcing quarterbacks — who, on average, are less experienced than in recent years — to dink and dunk and score points before making a crippling error or coming up short on third down. It’s working.
Somehow, scoring plummeted in Week 1 even as coaches got much more aggressive on fourth down. Or perhaps because of it. Teams went for it on fourth down in opposition territory 44.0% of the time in Week 1 (again, looking only at FBS vs. FBS games), up from 33.1% in Week 1 last year. And despite this increase, fourth-down conversion rates also went up, from 49.6% to 54.7%.
Coaches increasingly understand when going for it is to their advantage, but might that be further tamping down their willingness to take shots downfield, since it’s now more OK to come up just short of the line to gain and utilize fourth downs? “Nerds ruined college football” is quite the overreaction, especially coming from a nerd, but consider that food for thought as we advance further into the season.
At one point Saturday, the Under was 17-3 for the weekend; it ended up 29-14 (67.4%), a solid improvement over last year’s 26-16 (61.9%) in Week 1. Offenses eventually picked up steam a bit in 2024, and they probably will this season too. But damn, were points hard to come by this weekend.
Iowa State is winning the Big 12
ISU and Kansas State returned from Ireland just a few days ago, and both scheduled Week 1 games against FCS opponents. Perhaps somewhat predictably, K-State had to labor significantly against both jet lag and a solid North Dakota team, but against South Dakota, a top-five FCS team on paper, Matt Campbell’s Cyclones cruised.
Projected to win by 21.4 per SP+, they rolled 55-7. Rocco Becht completed 19 of 20 passes for 278 yards and 3 scores, and after giving up 80 yards in 12 plays on USD’s opening drive, the Cyclones allowed just 129 from there. Kicker Kyle Konrardy crushed a 63-yard field goal at the end of the first half.
ISU couldn’t have been more dialed in, and though plenty of other potential Big 12 teams looked the part — especially TCU (def. North Carolina 48-14), Utah (def. UCLA 43-10), Arizona (40-6 over Hawaii), BYU (69-0 over Portland State) and Texas Tech (67-7 over Arkansas-Pine Bluff) — the Cyclones passed a particularly unique test and blew me away.
The kids are alright
For as much as QBs seemed to struggle in Week 1, some particularly young ones looked the part of future stars. Michigan’s Bryce Underwood, the most touted freshman in the country, was solid in his debut against New Mexico, weathering a couple of mini-funks and finishing 21-for-31 for 251 yards and a touchdown. But a couple of others did even better.
No one made more of an out-of-the-gate impression than Cal’s Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele. In Cal’s surprisingly easy 34-15 win at Oregon State, the blue-chipper completed his first nine passes for 146 yards and 2 scores and finished with 234 yards and 3 TDs, no sacks and 2 rushes for 30 yards. It was one of the more poised and mistake-free debuts from a true freshman.
Maryland’s Malik Washington went about similar numbers differently: He started 3-for-11 for 19 yards, and the Terrapins were tied with Florida Atlantic 7-7 after one quarter. But from there, he went 24-for-32 and threw three touchdown passes in a 39-7 romp.
Thanks to offseason attrition, Cal and Maryland were forced to undergo youth movements of sorts, handing the reins to youngsters and hoping they could get enough help from transfers and random incumbents to get by. Both more than got by in Week 1.
While we’re at it, a couple of redshirt freshmen looked outstanding at the Group of 5 level: North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker went 24-for-32 for 329 yards, 3 touchdowns and 30 non-sack rushing yards in a 51-0 blowout of Lamar, while Texas State’s Brad Jackson, with help from a rampant run game, went 18-for-26 for 214 yards and 4 TDs (plus 57 rushing yards) as the Bobcats rolled 52-27 over Eastern Michigan. Quality quarterbacking was rare in Week 1, but these teams found plenty of it with youngsters.
Tulane to the CFP
A football game lasts a long time. About 45 minutes or so into the USF–Boise State game Thursday evening, things had loosely gone as BSU would have hoped. Sure, the Broncos had lost a costly fumble at the USF 20 on the opening drive, but they were moving the ball efficiently, and USF was not. Boise State had a 46% success rate to USF’s 10%, and the Bulls’ first nine snaps had lost 10 yards.
Then came the final 2 hours, 45 minutes. USF put together a couple of good drives, and BSU stalled. After looking strong early, the Broncos trailed 10-7 at halftime. Then it was 17-7. And 24-7. Boise State kept turning the ball over on downs, and USF kept scoring. And after about 3½ hours, the Bulls had won 34-7 — somehow BSU finished plus-6 in yardage and minus-27 in points — and completely flipped the race for the Group of 5’s guaranteed CFP spot on its head.
Now, Boise State remains a contender. The Broncos are still very talented and will likely be favored in every game besides their Oct. 4 trip to Notre Dame. But the upset opened a door, and above all others, Tulane walked through it.
The Green Wave were 6.5-point favorites against Northwestern on Saturday, but that was a bit of an insult to the home team. SP+ projected Tulane as a 15-point favorite, and even that eventually undersold the Green Wave in a 23-3 win that was more dominant than the final score indicated. They converted most of the game’s big plays and made new Northwestern quarterback Preston Stone‘s life hell, picking off four of his passes and sacking him three times. Green Wave QB Jake Retzlaff threw for 152 yards and rushed for 113, including a 69-yard touchdown sprint in the second quarter. Tulane was basically bigger, stronger, faster and angrier than the Wildcats at every position. The Green Wave could also be favored in all but one remaining game — their Sept. 20 trip to Ole Miss being the exception — and unlike BSU, they haven’t used a mulligan yet.
Rice will bowl
Because I didn’t include a “how sexy is your offense?” component in preseason SP+ projections, Rice was projected only 116th, with an average projected win total of 4.8, heading into Scott Abell’s first season in charge. But that offense did something sexy Saturday.
Turner turns it up!
Rice 14 – Louisiana 3 pic.twitter.com/MVk9EH97Fa
— Rice Football (@RiceFootball) August 31, 2025
It took the Owls no time to spin an opponent into the ground with Abell’s option offense. Rice rushed for 206 yards, and thanks to a surprisingly spry defensive effort, the Owls upset Louisiana 14-12. They’ll probably need another upset or two to get to 6-6, but this is overreaction territory! I say they get to at least 6-6!
North Carolina won’t
If nothing else, Bill Belichick’s first North Carolina team won the scripted portion of its first game. TCU’s defense had no way of really knowing what the Tar Heels, with almost completely new personnel and a coaching staff heavy in pro influences, were going to attempt when their Monday night affair started. And sure enough, UNC carved the Horned Frogs up for 83 yards and a touchdown in just seven plays. TCU quickly went four-and-out, and everything was sunshine and moonbeams in Chapel Hill.
Unfortunately, the game continued. Over the next 30 minutes and change, TCU outgained the Heels 402-39 and outscored them 41-0. UNC briefly perked up when backup quarterback Max Johnson came in and threw a touchdown pass to his brother Jake Johnson — unfortunately not the same guy who starred in New Girl — but the Horned Frogs rolled, 48-14.
When Michael Lombardi, UNC’s general manager and a longtime NFL front-office guy, would talk to the media this offseason, you would hear a lot about running an NFL-style organization at North Carolina, with all sorts of scouting and cap knowledge. That’s great, and maybe that know-how will benefit the program in future seasons as it learns some lessons from 2025. But 2025 doesn’t look like it’s going to go particularly well. The roster Belichick and his NFL staff compiled this season simply doesn’t have enough talent, especially in the trenches, to aim for anything higher than 6-6 in year one. This isn’t the NFL, and you can’t draft talent — there’s still a recruiting element to the college game that goes with all the cap math. We’ll see what happens in future seasons, but in 2025 it looks like the college game, with all its quirks and oddities, is going to get the best of the best coach in NFL history.
But on the bright side, just think of how many Super Bowls TCU’s Sonny Dykes might win if he gets the chance!
Who won the Heisman this week?
I am, once again, awarding the Heisman every week of the season and doling out weekly points, F1-style (in this case, 10 points for first place, 9 for second, and so on). For the first time last season, I had a different winner than the actual winner — Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty took the crown with a slight advantage over the actual winner Travis Hunter and Miami’s Cam Ward. How will this Heisman race play out, and how different will the result be from the real Heisman voting?
With almost no preseason Heisman favorites really looking the part in Week 1, this race hasn’t begun. But we still had some standout performances.
Here is this week’s Heisman top 10:
1. Jonah Coleman, Washington (24 carries for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 22 receiving yards against Colorado State)
𝘉𝘦𝘢𝘴𝘵 𝘔𝘰𝘥𝘦 😤
Jonah Coleman was ruled down before the end zone, but it takes nothing away from his effort on this @UW_Football run.
📺: BTN pic.twitter.com/UIMei214Iu
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) August 31, 2025
2. Rocco Becht, Iowa State (19-for-20 passing for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns against South Dakota)
3. Parker Navarro, Ohio (21-for-31 passing for 239 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 93 rushing yards and a touchdown against Rutgers)
4. Taylen Green, Arkansas (24-for-31 passing for 322 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 53 rushing yards against Alabama A&M)
5. Mekhi Mason, Louisiana Tech (9 tackles, 4.5 TFLs, 2 sacks, 1 pass breakup against Southeastern Louisiana)
6. Marcel Reed, Texas A&M (22-for-34 passing for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 39 rushing yards against UTSA)
7. Robert Henry Jr., UTSA (16 carries for 177 yards and 2 touchdowns against Texas A&M)
8. Devon Dampier, Utah (21-for-25 passing for 206 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 87 rushing yards and a touchdown against UCLA)
9. Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State (5 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, 1 sack and 2 forced fumbles against Nevada)
10. KC Concepcion, Texas A&M (three catches for 72 yards and a touchdown, plus an 80-yard punt return TD against UTSA)
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KC Concepcion with a spectacular touchdown vs. UTSA Roadrunners
KC Concepcion (Texas A&M) with a spectacular touchdown vs. UTSA Roadrunners on Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025.
Jonah Coleman’s “beast mode” run late Saturday night was one of the best plays of the weekend, and without his efforts, the Huskies would have been in trouble against Colorado State. And though plenty of QBs posted good stat lines against FCS opponents, only Rocco Becht went 19-for-20. He and his Cyclones were almost perfect against a solid South Dakota squad.
Honorable mention:
• Jackson Arnold, Auburn (11-for-17 passing for 108 yards, plus 151 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against Baylor)
• Bryson Donelson, Fresno State (23 carries for 167 yards and a touchdown, plus 25 receiving yards against Georgia Southern)
• Jordan Dwyer, TCU (nine catches for 136 yards and a touchdown against North Carolina)
• Justice Haynes, Michigan (16 carries for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns against New Mexico)
• Jayden Maiava, USC (15-for-18 passing for 295 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus a rushing touchdown against Missouri State)
• Garrett Nussmeier, LSU (28-for-38 passing for 230 yards and a touchdown against Clemson)
• Beau Pribula, Missouri (23-for-28 passing for 283 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 72 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns against Central Arkansas)
• Braylan Shelby, USC (4 tackles, 3.5 TFLs, 2 sacks against Missouri State)
• Evan Simon, Temple (19-for-25 passing for 248 yards and 6 touchdowns against UMass)
• Steven Soles Jr., Kentucky (3 tackles, 2 sacks and 2 forced fumbles against Toledo)
My 10 favorite games of the weekend
We can admit that Week 1 wasn’t exactly overloaded with great games … or close games of any kind. But here’s where college football’s endless depth kicks in. There’s always a great game and a heart-stopping finish somewhere, even if you have to search a bit.
1. No. 10 Miami 27, No. 6 Notre Dame 24. Loud crowd, late drama and a jaw-dropping one-handed touchdown catch? Yep, this game was awesome.
2 and 3. NAIA: No. 2 Keiser 38, No. 6 Indiana Wesleyan 31 and No. 4 Benedictine 38, No. 3 Morningside 34. The NAIA’s top-10 doubleheader produced a pair of thrillers. First, Keiser traveled from Florida to Marion, Indiana, and led most of the way. But Arjun Lothe scored on a keeper and threw a 21-yard touchdown pass to Isaac Smith to tie the score at 31-31. But then Jaden Miller ripped off a 70-yard touchdown run, his fourth score of the day, and Keiser prevailed. Meanwhile, in Atchison, Kansas, there were some long touchdowns and nine lead changes, the last of which came with 12 seconds left: Jackson Dooley’s 2-yard keeper allowed Benedictine to open the season with a thrilling win over NAIA royalty for the second straight year.
4. Tarleton State 30, Army 27 (2OT). On Friday, I wrote that Tarleton State jumping to second in FCS SP+ last week might have been a bit of a small-sample overreaction. Whoops. The Texans forced three Army turnovers, got a combined 196 rushing yards and two scores from Caleb Lewis and Tre Page III, overcame a 14-point second-half deficit and took down the defending American Conference champs with better late-game place-kicking.
TSU is one of the most ambitious programs in the country; the Texans moved up from Division II recently and are almost openly pining to move up further. They’ve certainly looked like an FBS team in 2025.
5 and 6. No. 9 LSU 17, No. 4 Clemson 10 and No. 3 Ohio State 14, No. 1 Texas 7. Great games with huge plays from all the big-name guys? Not really. Down-to-the-wire battles with electric atmospheres? Absolutely.
7 and 8. FCS: Gardner-Webb 52, Western Carolina 45 and Monmouth 42, Colgate 39. We got two enormous comebacks at the FCS level Saturday evening, both from visiting teams. First, Gardner-Webb spotted Western Carolina a 35-7 lead in the second quarter, then scored 45 of the next 52 points. WCU kicked a late field goal, but the Bulldogs recovered the onside kick and survived. Then, in upstate New York, Colgate took a 31-7 lead midway through the third quarter, but watched Monmouth score 35 points in 14 minutes to take a stunning 42-31 lead. The Raiders responded with a touchdown, but Monmouth moved the chains three times and ran out the clock.
9. Kent State 21, Merrimack 17. Kent State entered the game with a 21-game (and nearly two-year) losing streak, and it looked like that streak could continue for a while when Merrimack took a 17-14 lead with 5:40 left. But Da’Realyst Clark — DA’REALYST CLARK! — returned the ensuing kickoff 100 yards for a score.
1:17
Merrimack Warriors vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: Full Highlights
Merrimack Warriors vs. Kent State Golden Flashes: Full Highlights
10. Prairie View A&M 22, Texas Southern 21. The HBCU universe did its best to provide. Howard upset Florida A&M 10-9 with a Matt Conord field goal at the buzzer, and NC A&T missed a tying field goal at the buzzer in a 24-21 Tennessee State win. In Orangeburg, South Carolina, SC State blew a fourth-quarter lead against Wofford but scored late to win anyway. And after a weather delay at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Prairie View gave up a go-ahead touchdown to Texas Southern with 1:15 left but drove 84 yards and won the game on a 14-yard walk-off touchdown pass from Cameron Peters to Rodny Ojo.
(Also, a quick shoutout to Presbyterian: The Blue Hose knocked off their highest-ranked FCS opponent ever, No. 11 Mercer, with a 16-yard Zach Switzer touchdown run and a late stop. Blue Hose 15, Bears 10.)
Welcome to September! Five months into Major League Baseball’s 2025 season, a number of things seem to be settled — from a few divisions to some award races — but plenty of intrigue remains entering the homestretch.
Which of the current contenders will reach the playoffs? How will the closer division races play out? Which teams will secure first-round byes? And how many games will the Colorado Rockies lose?!
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked 16 ESPN baseball experts some of the game’s biggest questions, covering September and beyond, and to explain their answers. We also asked them to make bold predictions about what will happen over the final stretch.
Let’s get into it.
Which team will finish with the best record in baseball?
Milwaukee Brewers: 14
Detroit Tigers: 1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 1
What makes the Brewers the favorite to secure the majors’ best record? Besides the buffer the Brewers have built as we enter the final month of the regular season, there’s just nothing to suggest a falloff. They are on track to win about 100 games and their run differential supports that pace. The remaining schedule is friendly. And Milwaukee’s production has come from every position and category. It’s just a really complete team. — Bradford Doolittle
How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?
All 12: 15
11: 1
You have the Royals ousting the Mariners from the playoff field. Why do you think that will happen? The Kansas City Royals will make the playoffs. Crazy? Not so. They’ve played great in July and August. Vinnie Pasquantino is mashing home runs, Bobby Witt Jr. is red hot and the players they added at the trade deadline have chipped in to make this a good offense. The Royals also have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way. But which team can they catch?
It might hinge on a three-game series at home against Seattle in mid-September. The Mariners have a recent history of falling just short of the postseason — including last year, when the Royals clinched a wild-card spot with 86 wins and the Mariners won 85 (the Mariners blew an 8-0 lead against Kansas City in June, which loomed large at the end of the season). Seattle has struggled on the road, so the aforementioned series can catapult the Royals back into the postseason. — David Schoenfield
Who will be the No. 1 seed in the AL: Toronto or Detroit?
Detroit Tigers: 14
Toronto Blue Jays: 2
The Tigers were the overwhelming choice. Why did you take them? For me, this was mostly a schedule play. The top seed, based on the standings, is likely to be the Tigers or the Blue Jays, with the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners all within plausible striking distance. Toronto doesn’t have an easy series left. Detroit’s schedule isn’t nearly as rigorous. In a race this close, with teams this close in talent and production, little things like schedule luck often determine the outcome. — Jeff Passan
You were one of two voters to pick the Blue Jays. Why do you think they top Detroit? The Tigers are a wonderful story, but not so much since the All-Star break, as they have played .500 ball, struggled to score runs and their ERA is among the bottom 10 in baseball. The Blue Jays are peaking at the right time, scoring plenty of runs, and Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber make the rotation formidable. Frankly, all three AL East contenders are better than the current Tigers, and it should show in the final standings. — Eric Karabell
Assuming the Brewers get one, who will get the second bye in the NL?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 9
Philadelphia Phillies: 5
San Diego Padres: 2
Despite dealing with star players slumping and a mountain of injuries this season, the Dodgers are still the slight favorites for the No. 2 seed in a stacked NL. Explain why. Because those are the very reasons why the Dodgers firmly believe their best baseball is still ahead of them. Their bullpen will soon be as close to whole as it has been all season. The same can be said about the lineup. The rotation already is, and the four-man group they’ll put together in October will be scary if the starters remain healthy.
That’s a big “if,” considering the pitching ailments that have plagued them the last couple years. But at the end of the day, the Dodgers possess the most depth and talent in the sport. They feel as if they’re on the verge of truly showcasing it. — Alden Gonzalez
The Phillies also received a fair number of votes. What makes them your pick? The Phillies seem to be flying under the radar for a team that has spent most of the season on a 95-win pace. Maybe it’s the Zack Wheeler injury, maybe it’s their struggles against the New York Mets — or maybe it’s just that this is about what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing from Philly over the past few seasons.
But there is plenty to like here over the final month and into October as well. Even without Wheeler, the Phillies have the best Game 1 starter of any NL contender in Cristopher Sanchez. Kyle Schwarber has a real shot at Ryan Howard’s franchise home run record (58). They acquired the best reliever to move at the deadline in Jhoan Duran and filled their biggest hole by trading for outfielder Harrison Bader. Oh, and they currently hold that second spot in the NL — with a 1 1/2 game cushion over the Dodgers. — Dan Mullen
Will the Dodgers or Padres win the NL West?
Los Angeles Dodgers: 13
San Diego Padres: 3
The Dodgers were our voters’ overwhelming favorite to win the division. Why — and how — do you think San Diego can overtake L.A.? More than any other team, I think the Dodgers look at their seasons from 30,000 feet, rather than succumbing to the concerns of the moment. They demonstrate this every year with their handling of pitching injuries — they essentially rest veteran starters through long stretches of the season, rather than push them in May and June, in order to do what they can to ensure that the players will be relatively fresh in October. This is why we’ve seen such a deliberate ramp-up with Shohei Ohtani.
That’s why I think the Padres will wind up winning the division. They bolstered their bullpen with Mason Miller at the trade deadline, and since then, it feels like they’ve been playing a series of Game 7s. And, let’s face it, San Diego is all-in in trying to win right now, with its top-heavy roster and the likes of Dylan Cease and Michael King headed for free agency in the fall. The Dodgers, on the other hand, won’t go to the whip in September in the same way. No matter how their own division plays out, they’ll make the playoffs and have a shot to repeat as World Series winners, while it feels as if San Diego is going to go all-out down the stretch to win the NL West.
Different pressures, different styles, different context. — Buster Olney
Who will win the AL West?
Houston Astros: 8
Seattle Mariners: 8
Make the case for the Astros: Picking Houston to win the West isn’t going out on much of a limb: They’re currently in first place, just got slugger Yordan Alvarez back from injury and simply have more pedigree than Seattle. The Mariners have a slightly easier schedule the rest of the way but their road woes are for real — and will likely prevent them from going on an extended run. Picking against the Astros would be the headline-scratching move. They’re the division champ once again. — Jesse Rogers
Make the case for the Mariners: The Mariners aren’t playing their best baseball, but they are healthy and within striking distance of the Astros for the division entering September. Their starting rotation is elite. The bullpen and offense should be better. Meanwhile, the Astros have recently gotten Yordan Alvarez back from injury, but they’re without Josh Hader and Isaac Paredes, among others. The division could come down to the three-game series between the two rivals in late September. — Jorge Castillo
How many games will the Rockies lose?
119: 1
118: 3
117: 1
116: 3
115: 3
114: 3
113: 1
112: 1
We got quite the breadth of answers to this question, but you were one of three to say 118 losses — our second-highest loss total. Why is that your prediction? The Rockies aren’t far removed from being on a modern record-setting pace for losses, and they’ve been especially awful against the current 12 teams in the playoff field: 9-50 (.153). They play 13 of their final 24 against that group, at a time when they’re increasingly leaning on younger and less experienced players. Their September isn’t going to be pretty. — Tristan Cockcroft
Make one bold prediction about the final stretch
Tim Kurkjian: Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh will finish the season with 60 home runs.
Matt Marrone: With most of the playoff field set — other than last-minute jockeying for seeds — all eyes will be on the Mariners over the final days of the season, as Raleigh sets a new AL home run record.
Kiley McDaniel: Between hitting and pitching, Shohei Ohtani catches Raleigh in total WAR.
Passan: Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz will finish in the top five of AL MVP voting.
Karabell: The Phillies call up top pitching prospect Andrew Painter on Sept. 7 and he goes 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA.
Mullen: Nolan McLean will be the NL’s best pitcher not named Paul Skenes over the final month and take the mound in October — as the Mets’ Game 1 playoff starter.
Paul Hembekides: Boston’s Garrett Crochet will overtake Detroit’s Tarik Skubal and win the AL Cy Young Award.
Schoenfield: The Red Sox will catch the Blue Jays and win the AL East.
Gonzalez: Actually, the Yankees will win the AL East.
Cockcroft: Not only do the Yankees overtake Toronto for the division title, but they also grab a first-round bye, even if they can’t quite catch the Tigers for the No. 1 seed.
Olney: The Yankees have such a soft schedule in the final weeks that they wind up with the second-best record in the AL … but because Toronto holds on to win the division, New York is the No. 4 seed and faces Boston in the wild-card round.
Tim Keown: The Padres, with the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, will go 7-0 against the Colorado Rockies in September to win the NL West and take the second first-round bye spot.
Castillo: The Mets will overtake the Phillies and win the NL East.
Doolittle: If we started the playoffs tomorrow, the bracket would look exactly the same as it will after we’ve played out the season.
Voters: Dan Mullen, Liz Finny, Paul Hembekides, Jeff Passan, Eric Karabell, Alden Gonzalez, David Schoenfield, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Tim Keown, Jorge Castillo, Matt Marrone, Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers, Tristan Cockcroft, Buster Olney
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