Chancellor faces finding £60bn of spending cuts to fund mini-budget, IFS warns
The government’s mini-budget has left it facing such a large black hole in the public finances that the most credible way of filling it is severe spending cuts similar to the kinds imposed during the austerity years a decade ago, according to an authoritative new report.
The “Green Budget”, from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), together with investment bank Citi, warns that the chancellor would have to cut spending or raise taxes by £62bn if he is to stabilise or reduce the national debt, as he has repeatedly promised in recent weeks.
That shortfall is a direct consequence of measures announced since the Truss government took office, including its reversal of various tax increases such as corporation tax and National Insurance, and its Energy Price Guarantee.
There is a chance that hole is filled by economic growth, but the IFS said such an outcome would depend on luck more than judgement.
It said the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government’s in-house forecaster, was unlikely to assume at the end of the month that the measures in Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget would boost the country’s long-term growth prospects.
The IFS said that even raising working age benefits in line with earnings rather than inflation – one of the big and controversial money-saving measures it is considering – would only save a fraction of the money necessary – about £13bn a year.
It added that Mr Kwarteng would instead have to carry out more dramatic cuts, potentially reducing government investment and slashing public spending on departments already squeezed to the bone during the austerity years.
The IFS Green Budget found that the amount the government is set to pay on debt interest is set to rise in the next couple of years to the highest level, as a percentage of national income, since at least the late 1940s.
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How might the government balance the books?
This increase in debt interest is one element of a “premium” the government is having to pay at the moment because of fears among investors that it has surrendered some of its credibility.
This “credibility premium” means the cost of borrowing is currently higher in the UK than might have been expected, given the increase in borrowing accounted for by the mini-budget.
Moreover, Citi said that the higher interest rates faced by consumers in their mortgages would also dampen economic growth in the coming years.
The IFS said the “credibility premium” for the public finances was around £10bn; Citi said the premium for economic growth was 0.1 or 0.2 percentage points.
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Labour: ‘Reverse mini-budget’
IFS director, Paul Johnson, said that with so much geopolitical instability there were large uncertainties about the outlook in the coming year, but that Mr Kwarteng was left facing large fiscal challenges.
“The specifics of the UK government’s fiscal strategy are under more scrutiny by financial markets than at any point in the recent past. The chancellor should not rely on over-optimistic growth forecasts or promises of unspecified spending cuts. To do so would risk his plans lacking the credibility which recent events have shown to be so important.
“All that said, we would have sympathy with the chancellor if he decided that the uncertainties of the present moment are too great to be promising specific future action around public spending.
But the same would apply to his recent package of tax cuts. He should not apply that argument asymmetrically.”
Benjamin Nabarro, chief UK economist at Citigroup, added: “With monetary and fiscal policy now working in opposite directions, we think the broader risks around UK monetary-financial stability are growing.
“In the years ahead, ‘supply shocks’ such as those seen in recent months seem likely to grow more frequent. That may require profound changes in the manner macroeconomic policy is conducted if we are to avoid another decade of stagnation.
“The UK can ill afford further policy mistakes,” he concluded.
Comedy writer Bill Dare, – who worked on shows including Spitting Image and Dead Ringers – has died after an accident overseas, his agent said.
Described as a “super producer” by his peers, Dare, 64, worked on eight series of hugely popular satire puppet show Spitting Image.
Airing on ITV during the 1980s and 1990s, the show delighted in lampooning public figures including politicians, celebrities and royalty, winning BAFTAs and Emmys. It was rebooted in 2020.
Dare also created Dead Ringers, a comedy impressions show broadcast on BBC Radio 4.
He also produced The Now Show, a satirical take on the news which ran on Radio 4 from 1998 to 2024.
Dare worked on a wide range of comedy shows during his career, including the radio production of The Mary Whitehouse Experience in the late 1980s and early 1990s. He had also written several novels.
In a statement released on Monday, his agent JFL Agency confirmed he died at the weekend.
A spokesperson said: “We are shocked and greatly saddened to have to announce the death of our brilliant client Bill Dare, who died at the weekend following an accident overseas.
“Our thoughts are with his wife Lucy, daughter Rebecca, and with all of Bill’s family and friends who will be devastated by his loss.
“Bill was a truly legendary producer and writer, and his comedy instincts were second to none.”
Oasis depicted on Spitting Image in 1996. Pic: ITV/Shutterstock
Colleagues were quick to pay tribute and reflect on his talent.
Impressionist Jon Culshaw wrote on X: “It’s impossible to express the unreal sense of loss at the passing of the incredible Bill Dare. The wisest comedy alchemist and the dearest, dearest friend. Much love to Lucy and all Bill’s family and friends. We shall all miss him more than we can say.”
David Baddiel posted on the social media platform: “Just heard that the original producer of The Mary Whitehouse Experience on radio, Bill Dare, has died. Bill was an amazing creative force. I owe him much. RIP.”
Former EastEnders actress Tracy-Ann Oberman said she was “devastated” and that her “entire comedy career was down to Bill”.
She wrote: “When I was on the BBC Radio 4 rep company early on in career – I ran into Bill in the corridors – He asked if I was good at accents. I said yes.
“He cast me in a sketch show. I had to do about 15 different accents. We recorded in front of a live audience at Broadcasting House – afterwards Bill said ‘Why have I never met you – you’re going to have a big career’.
“He was incredibly loyal and supportive and really opened a path for me into the R4 comedy world and then TV having come out of the RSC and theatre it was all new. I will always be grateful. Fly high Bill.”
Comedian and writer Mark Steel wrote: “This is so grim. Bill was a compassionate hearty soul with the ability to be beautifully grumpy, a marvellously thoughtful comic mind.
“He’d argue but always listen and you’d always laugh, he made a million shows and wanted them all to matter and would have made a million more.”
Have I Got News for You writer Pete Sinclair said: “I am utterly devastated by Bill’s death. I still can’t believe it. He was a comedy genius. A hugely talented writer as well as a brilliant producer. A close friend and co-writer. I cannot begin to say how much I’ll miss him.”
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Julia McKenzie, comedy commissioner for Radio 4, said: “I am so terribly sorry to hear this tragic news and my thoughts are with Bill’s wife, family and friends.
“Bill has been a huge part of Radio 4 comedy for decades, as a writer and producer, and listeners will have heard his legendary name at the end of many of their favourite shows.
“Bill was a comedy obsessive, and very instinctive about making the funniest choices when it came to writing, directing and editing.
“He cared so much about his work that in the production booth during Dead Ringers you’d see him crouched over the script, utterly focused on the show.
“He was funny and very dry in person, amusingly cynical when he needed to be and always pushed to keep the comedy he made, and particularly satire, spiky.
“I’ve known and worked with him for 18 years and like many I can’t believe he has gone, he will leave a big hole in the comedy world and in our hearts.”
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