Russia running out of weapons as it faces ‘staggering’ numbers of casualties, spy chief says
Russia is running out of weapons for its war in Ukraine and the costs to the Kremlin are “staggering” in terms of soldiers killed and equipment lost, a UK spy chief will say.
Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of GCHQ, will use a rare, public speech on Tuesday to say the Ukrainian armed forces are “turning the tide” on the physical battlefield as well as in cyberspace.
The top intelligence officer will also talk about China – the main focus of his comments.
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He will say Beijing is seeking to exploit technologies in space and online in ways that could pose a “huge threat to us all”.
Sir Jeremy will flag concerns about the potential for the Chinese government to target the satellites of opponents at a time of conflict, crippling a crucial domain relied upon by militaries to launch weapons and communicate. It is feared the technology could also be used to track people.
He will also say the Chinese Communist Party is “learning the lessons” from Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has seen the UK and its allies hit the Russian economy with sanctions.
Sir Jeremy will describe how Beijing could use digital currencies to track people’s transactions and also help to protect its economy from the sort of sanctions being applied to Vladimir Putin‘s regime.
A communication satellite orbiting Earth. File pic
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Western allies are watching China closely amid concerns President Xi Jinping might be considering an invasion of the island of Taiwan, using the lessons drawn from Russia’s attack on Ukraine to bolster its defences against any western response.
In a speech at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, the director of GCHQ will touch on the war in Ukraine.
He will call decision-making by Russian President Vladimir Putin “flawed” following a failure to seize Kyiv in the first days of the war and a failure to make the gains he had wanted to achieve in the east.
“It’s a high stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement,” Sir Jeremy will say, according to exerts of the speech released on Monday night.
“Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia – in people and equipment are staggering. We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out.
“Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation.
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War with China ‘not an option’
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The main thrust of the speech will be about China and the critical importance of western allies staying in the race for technological advantage.
The head of GCHQ will highlight a paradox that Beijing’s “great strength combined with fear is driving China into actions that could represent a huge threat to us all”.
Talking about the huge importance and impact on daily life of emerging technologies, Sir Jeremy will refer to a “sliding door moment” in history, using the rather unusual analogy of the 1998 romantic comedy starring Gwyneth Paltrow in which a seemingly inconsequential event – catching a train before the door slides shut or missing it – has huge implications.
The spy chief will underline the need of ensuring western allies have technological solutions that do not rely on China given the divergence in values between democratic and authoritarian regimes.
“At GCHQ it is our privilege and duty to see the sliding door moments of history,” he will say.
“This feels like one of those moments. Our future strategic technology advantage rests on what we as a community do next. I’m confident that together we can tilt that in our collective favour.”
Highlighting the dangers of not acting, he will accuse the Chinese government of using its financial and scientific clout to manipulate key technologies such as satellite systems and digital currencies to expand its sphere of influence and tighten its grip on power at home.
He will talk specifically about the BeiDou satellite system which the authorities have forces Chinese citizens and businesses to adopt as well as exporting it around the world.
Sir Jeremy will say: “Many believe that China is building a powerful anti-satellite capability, with a doctrine of denying other nations access to space in the event of a conflict. And there are fears the technology could be used to track individuals.”
He will also talk about central bank digital currencies that allow China to monitor the transactions of users.
In addition, the GCHQ boss will say how a centralised digital currency could “enable China to partially evade the sort of international sanctions currently being applied to Putin’s regime in Russia”.
Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada have come into effect, as has an additional 10% on Chinese products, bringing the total import tax to 20%.
The US president confirmed the tariffs in a speech at the White House – and his announcement sent US and European stocks down sharply.
The tariffs will be felt heavily by US companies which have factories in Canada and Mexico, such as carmakers.
Mr Trump said: “They’re going to have a tariff. So what they have to do is build their car plants, frankly, and other things in the United States, in which case they have no tariffs.”
There’s “no room left” for a deal that would see the tariffs shelved if fentanyl flowing into the US is curbed by its neighbours, he added.
Mexico and Canada face tariffs of 25%, with 10% for Canadian energy, the Trump administration confirmed.
And tariffs on Chinese imports have doubled, raising them from 10% to 20%.
Canada announced it would retaliate immediately, imposing 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn). It added the tariffs would be extended in 21 days to cover more US goods entering the country if the US did not lift its sanctions against Canada.
China also vowed to retaliate and reiterated its stance that the Trump administration was trying to “shift the blame” and
“bully” Beijing over fentanyl flows.
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Mr Trump’s speech stoked fears of a trade war in North America, prompting a financial market sell-off.
Stock market indexes the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite fell by 1.48% and 2.64% respectively on Monday.
The share prices for automobile companies including General Motors, which has significant truck production in Mexico, Automaker and Ford also fell.
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Consumers in the US could see price hikes within days, an expert has said.
Gustavo Flores-Macias, a public policy professor at Cornell University, New York, said “the automobile sector, in particular, is likely to see considerable negative consequences”.
This is due to supply chains that “crisscross the three countries in the manufacturing process” and ” because of the expected increase in the price of vehicles, which can dampen demand,” he added.
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The Trump administration is gearing up to bring in other tariffs in the coming weeks.
On 2 April, reciprocal tariffs will take effect on all countries that impose duties on US products.
He is also considering 25% tariffs on goods from the EU “very soon” after claiming the bloc was created to “screw the United States”.
A truck has collided with a bus in southern Bolivia, killing at least 31Â people, according to police – just two days after a deadly crash claimed at least 37 lives.
Officers said the bus rolled some 500m (1,640ft) down a ravine after the collision on Monday, which took place on the highway between Oruro, in the Bolivian Altiplano, and the highland mining city of Potosi.
The driver of the truck has been arrested, while the cause of the accident is under investigation.
Police spokesperson Limbert Choque said men and women were among the dead, and 22 people suffered injuries.
Rescue teams operating at the site of the crash. Pic: Bolivia’s attorney general/Reuters
Bolivia’s President, Luis Arce, expressed condolences for the victims on social media: “This unfortunate event must be investigated to establish responsibilities,” he said in a post on Facebook.
“We send our most sincere condolences to the bereaved families, wishing them the necessary strength to face these difficult times.”
The crash happened between Oruro and Potosi
On Saturday morning, a crash between two buses killed more than three dozen people in the same region.
It happened between Colchani and the city of Uyuni, a major tourist attraction and the world’s largest salt flat.
People stand near the wreckage of one of the two buses involved in a crash on Saturday. Pic: Reuters/Potosi Departmental Command
Coincidentally, one of the buses was heading to Oruro, where one of the most important carnival celebrations in Latin America is currently taking place.
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More than 30 people were also killed after a bus crash on 17 February.
In that crash, police said the driver appeared to have lost control of the vehicle, causing it to drop more than 800m (2,600ft) off a precipice in the southwestern area of Yocalla.
Bolivia’s mountainous, undermaintained and poorly supervised roads are some of the deadliest in the world, claiming an average 1,400 fatalities every year.
The Pope has had two episodes of “acute respiratory failure”, the Vatican has said.
The 88-year-old has been in hospital since 14 February with a severe respiratory infection that triggered other complications.
The Vatican said the respiratory failures were caused by “significant accumulation” of mucus in his lungs and a “bronchospasm”, akin to an asthma attack.
Doctors were then required to perform two bronchoscopies – a test which sees medics use a long, thin, telescope with a light to look into the lungs – to evaluate the Pope’s air passages, the statement said.
“In the afternoon, non-invasive mechanical ventilation was resumed,” the Vatican continued. “The Holy Father has always remained vigilant, oriented and collaborative. The prognosis remains reserved.”
Vatican sources said the situation had been calm this morning, before becoming worse this afternoon.
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Behind the scenes at the Vatican
The respiratory issues the Pope suffered today are due to an ongoing infection rather than a new one but he is not out of danger, they added.
Asked if the Pope is in good spirits, they gave no answer. When asked if the Vatican’s apartment is getting ready to welcome Francis back, the source said it was too premature to discuss this.
His clinical picture remains complex, they said.
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Earlier on Monday, Pope Francis issued a written message after Vatican officials begged him to let his voice be heard following more than two weeks out of public view.
He thanked his doctors for their care and well-wishers for their prayers, before praying for peace in Ukraine and elsewhere.
“From here, war appears even more absurd,” he wrote.
People at a nightly rosary prayer for the Pope in St. Peter’s Square yesterday evening. Pic: AP
This has become the longest public absence of his 12-year papacy.
Cardinal Konrad Krajewski presided over the evening rosary prayer in St Peter’s Square on Sunday night.
“Let us pray together with the entire church for the health of the Holy Father Francis,” he said.
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