Russia is running out of weapons for its war in Ukraine and the costs to the Kremlin are “staggering” in terms of soldiers killed and equipment lost, a UK spy chief will say.
Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of GCHQ, will use a rare, public speech on Tuesday to say the Ukrainian armed forces are “turning the tide” on the physical battlefield as well as in cyberspace.
The top intelligence officer will also talk about China – the main focus of his comments.
He will say Beijing is seeking to exploit technologies in space and online in ways that could pose a “huge threat to us all”.
Sir Jeremy will flag concerns about the potential for the Chinese government to target the satellites of opponents at a time of conflict, crippling a crucial domain relied upon by militaries to launch weapons and communicate. It is feared the technology could also be used to track people.
He will also say the Chinese Communist Party is “learning the lessons” from Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has seen the UK and its allies hit the Russian economy with sanctions.
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Sir Jeremy will describe how Beijing could use digital currencies to track people’s transactions and also help to protect its economy from the sort of sanctions being applied to Vladimir Putin‘s regime.
Image: A communication satellite orbiting Earth. File pic
Western allies are watching China closely amid concerns President Xi Jinping might be considering an invasion of the island of Taiwan, using the lessons drawn from Russia’s attack on Ukraine to bolster its defences against any western response.
In a speech at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, the director of GCHQ will touch on the war in Ukraine.
He will call decision-making by Russian President Vladimir Putin “flawed” following a failure to seize Kyiv in the first days of the war and a failure to make the gains he had wanted to achieve in the east.
“It’s a high stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement,” Sir Jeremy will say, according to exerts of the speech released on Monday night.
“Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia – in people and equipment are staggering. We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out.
“Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation.
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The main thrust of the speech will be about China and the critical importance of western allies staying in the race for technological advantage.
The head of GCHQ will highlight a paradox that Beijing’s “great strength combined with fear is driving China into actions that could represent a huge threat to us all”.
Talking about the huge importance and impact on daily life of emerging technologies, Sir Jeremy will refer to a “sliding door moment” in history, using the rather unusual analogy of the 1998 romantic comedy starring Gwyneth Paltrow in which a seemingly inconsequential event – catching a train before the door slides shut or missing it – has huge implications.
The spy chief will underline the need of ensuring western allies have technological solutions that do not rely on China given the divergence in values between democratic and authoritarian regimes.
“At GCHQ it is our privilege and duty to see the sliding door moments of history,” he will say.
“This feels like one of those moments. Our future strategic technology advantage rests on what we as a community do next. I’m confident that together we can tilt that in our collective favour.”
Highlighting the dangers of not acting, he will accuse the Chinese government of using its financial and scientific clout to manipulate key technologies such as satellite systems and digital currencies to expand its sphere of influence and tighten its grip on power at home.
He will talk specifically about the BeiDou satellite system which the authorities have forces Chinese citizens and businesses to adopt as well as exporting it around the world.
Sir Jeremy will say: “Many believe that China is building a powerful anti-satellite capability, with a doctrine of denying other nations access to space in the event of a conflict. And there are fears the technology could be used to track individuals.”
He will also talk about central bank digital currencies that allow China to monitor the transactions of users.
In addition, the GCHQ boss will say how a centralised digital currency could “enable China to partially evade the sort of international sanctions currently being applied to Putin’s regime in Russia”.
The IDF has admitted to mistakenly identifying a convoy of aid workers as a threat – following the emergence of a video which proved their ambulances were clearly marked when Israeli troops opened fire on them.
The bodies of 15 aid workers – including eight medics working for the Palestine Red Crescent Society (PRCS) – were found in a “mass grave” after the incident, according to the head of the UN Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs Jonathan Whittall.
The Israeli military originally claimed an investigation found the vehicles did not have any headlights or emergency signals and were therefore targeted as they looked “suspicious”.
But video footage obtained by the PRCS, and verified by Sky News, showed the ambulances and a fire vehicle clearly marked with flashing red lights.
In a briefing from the IDF, they said the ambulances arrived in the Tel Sultan neighbourhood in Rafah shortly after a Hamas police vehicle drove through.
Image: Palestinians mourning the medics after their bodies were recovered. Pic: Reuters
An IDF surveillance aircraft was watching the movement of the ambulances and notified troops on the ground. The IDF said it will not be releasing that footage.
When the ambulances arrived, the soldiers opened fire, thinking the medics were a threat, according to the IDF.
The soldiers were surprised by the convoy stopping on the road and several people getting out quickly and running, the IDF claimed, adding the soldiers were unaware the suspects were in fact unarmed medics.
An Israeli military official would not say how far away troops were when they fired on the vehicles.
The IDF acknowledged that its statement claiming that the ambulances had their lights off was incorrect, and was based on the testimony from the soldiers in the incident.
The newly emerged video footage showed that the ambulances were clearly identifiable and had their lights on, the IDF said.
The IDF added that there will be a re-investigation to look into this discrepancy.
Image: The clip is filmed through a vehicle windscreen – with three red light vehicles visible in front
Addressing the fact the aid workers’ bodies were buried in a mass grave, the IDF said in its briefing this is an approved and regular practice to prevent wild dogs and other animals from eating the corpses.
The IDF could not explain why the ambulances were also buried.
The IDF said six of the 15 people killed were linked to Hamas, but revealed no detail to support the claim.
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1:22
Bodies of aid workers found in Gaza
The newly emerged footage of the incident was discovered on a phone belonging to one of the workers who was killed, PRCS president Dr Younis Al Khatib said.
“His phone was found with his body and he recorded the whole event,” he said. “His last words before being shot, ‘Forgive me, mom. I just wanted to help people. I wanted to save lives’.”
Sky News used an aftermath video and satellite imagery to verify the location and timing of the newly emerged footage of the incident.
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2:43
Aid worker attacks increasing
It was filmed on 23 March north of Rafah and shows a convoy of marked ambulances and a fire-fighting vehicle travelling south along a road towards the city centre. All the vehicles visible in the convoy have their flashing lights on.
The footage was filmed early in the morning, with a satellite image seen by Sky News taken at 9.48am local time on the same day showing a group of vehicles bunched together off the road.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has hit out at the US over its “weak” response to lethal Russian attacks on his hometown on Friday.
President Zelenskyy posted a lengthy and emotional statement on X about Russia’s strikes on Kryvyi Rih, which killed 19 people.
Meanwhile Ukrainian drones hit an explosives factory in Russia’s Samara region in an overnight strike, a member of Ukraine’s SBU security service told Reuters.
In his post, President Zelenskyy accused the United States of being “afraid” to name-check Russia in its comment on the attack.
“Unfortunately, the reaction of the American Embassy is unpleasantly surprising: such a strong country, such a strong people – and such a weak reaction,” he wrote on X.
“They are even afraid to say the word “Russian” when talking about the missile that killed children.”
America’s ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink had written on X: “Horrified that tonight a ballistic missile struck near a playground and restaurant in Kryvyi Rih.
“More than 50 people injured and 16 killed, including 6 children. This is why the war must end.”
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5:49
Strike on Zelenskyy’s home city
President Zelenskyy went on in his post to say: “Yes, the war must end. But in order to end it, we must not be afraid to call a spade a spade.
“We must not be afraid to put pressure on the only one who continues this war and ignores all the world’s proposals to end it. We must put pressure on Russia, which chooses to kill children instead of a ceasefire.”
Grandmother ‘burned to death in her home’
Oleksandr Vilkul, head of the city’s defense council, said the missile attack, followed by a drone attack, had killed 19 people, including nine children.
“The Iskander-M missile strike with cluster munitions at the children’s playground in the residential area, to make the shrapnel fly further apart, killed 18 people.
“One grandmother was burnt to death in her house after Shahed’s direct hit.”
Russia’s defence ministry said it had struck a military gathering in a restaurant – an assertion rebutted by the Ukrainian military as misinformation.
“The missile hit right on the street – around ordinary houses, a playground, shops, a restaurant,” President Zelenskyy wrote.
Mr Zelenskyy also detailed the child victims of the attack including “Konstantin, who will be 16 forever” and “Arina, who will also be 7 forever”.
The UK’s chief of the defence staff Sir Tony Radakin said he had met the Ukrainian leader on Friday, along with French armed forces leader General Thierry Burkhard.
“Britain and France are coming together & Europe is stepping up in a way that is real & substantial, with 200 planners from 30 nations working to strengthen Ukraine’s long term security,” Sir Tony wrote.
Global financial markets gave a clear vote of no-confidence in President Trump’s economic policy.
The damage it will do is obvious: costs for companies will rise, hitting their earnings.
The consequences will ripple throughout the global economy, with economists now raising their expectations for a recession, not only in the US, but across the world.