Russia running out of weapons as it faces ‘staggering’ numbers of casualties, spy chief says
Russia is running out of weapons for its war in Ukraine and the costs to the Kremlin are “staggering” in terms of soldiers killed and equipment lost, a UK spy chief will say.
Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of GCHQ, will use a rare, public speech on Tuesday to say the Ukrainian armed forces are “turning the tide” on the physical battlefield as well as in cyberspace.
The top intelligence officer will also talk about China – the main focus of his comments.
‘Terrorists must be neutralised’ – Ukraine war latest updates
He will say Beijing is seeking to exploit technologies in space and online in ways that could pose a “huge threat to us all”.
Sir Jeremy will flag concerns about the potential for the Chinese government to target the satellites of opponents at a time of conflict, crippling a crucial domain relied upon by militaries to launch weapons and communicate. It is feared the technology could also be used to track people.
He will also say the Chinese Communist Party is “learning the lessons” from Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has seen the UK and its allies hit the Russian economy with sanctions.
Sir Jeremy will describe how Beijing could use digital currencies to track people’s transactions and also help to protect its economy from the sort of sanctions being applied to Vladimir Putin‘s regime.
A communication satellite orbiting Earth. File pic
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Western allies are watching China closely amid concerns President Xi Jinping might be considering an invasion of the island of Taiwan, using the lessons drawn from Russia’s attack on Ukraine to bolster its defences against any western response.
In a speech at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, the director of GCHQ will touch on the war in Ukraine.
He will call decision-making by Russian President Vladimir Putin “flawed” following a failure to seize Kyiv in the first days of the war and a failure to make the gains he had wanted to achieve in the east.
“It’s a high stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement,” Sir Jeremy will say, according to exerts of the speech released on Monday night.
“Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia – in people and equipment are staggering. We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out.
“Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation.
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War with China ‘not an option’
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The main thrust of the speech will be about China and the critical importance of western allies staying in the race for technological advantage.
The head of GCHQ will highlight a paradox that Beijing’s “great strength combined with fear is driving China into actions that could represent a huge threat to us all”.
Talking about the huge importance and impact on daily life of emerging technologies, Sir Jeremy will refer to a “sliding door moment” in history, using the rather unusual analogy of the 1998 romantic comedy starring Gwyneth Paltrow in which a seemingly inconsequential event – catching a train before the door slides shut or missing it – has huge implications.
The spy chief will underline the need of ensuring western allies have technological solutions that do not rely on China given the divergence in values between democratic and authoritarian regimes.
“At GCHQ it is our privilege and duty to see the sliding door moments of history,” he will say.
“This feels like one of those moments. Our future strategic technology advantage rests on what we as a community do next. I’m confident that together we can tilt that in our collective favour.”
Highlighting the dangers of not acting, he will accuse the Chinese government of using its financial and scientific clout to manipulate key technologies such as satellite systems and digital currencies to expand its sphere of influence and tighten its grip on power at home.
He will talk specifically about the BeiDou satellite system which the authorities have forces Chinese citizens and businesses to adopt as well as exporting it around the world.
Sir Jeremy will say: “Many believe that China is building a powerful anti-satellite capability, with a doctrine of denying other nations access to space in the event of a conflict. And there are fears the technology could be used to track individuals.”
He will also talk about central bank digital currencies that allow China to monitor the transactions of users.
In addition, the GCHQ boss will say how a centralised digital currency could “enable China to partially evade the sort of international sanctions currently being applied to Putin’s regime in Russia”.
When Canada goes to the polls today, it might be the second election Donald Trump wins in six months.
The US president has transformed Canada’s political landscape, and the “Trump effect” looks like it will be the difference between winners and losers.
Tariffs, and his threat to annexe the country as the 51st state, have provoked a surge in Canadian nationalism, and it’s made a favourite of the candidate styled anti-Trump.
Step forward, Mark Carney: Former governor of the Bank of England, now Canadian prime minister.
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‘Canada will win’
His ruling Liberal party had been written off as an electoral contender. Canadians had turned their back on the party after a decade in power under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.
The opposition Conservative Party, under the effective leadership of Pierre Poilievre, grew to a 25-point lead in the polls on the promise of change on the economy, crime and a chronic housing crisis.
However, his conservative politics are more aligned with the neighbour in the White House and, in Canada right now, it’s not a good look.
Read more: Everything you need to know about the election
Pierre Poilievre led the Conservatives to a 25-point lead before Trudeau stepped down. Pic: Reuters
In a stunning reversal of fortune, the Conservative Party’s lead vanished within weeks, as Canadians turned to Carney as the choice to take on Trump.
If he wins, the swing from Conservative to Liberal will be the biggest swing in the polls in recent democratic history.
Carney, 60, is the former governor of the Bank of Canada, as well as England. He replaced Mr Trudeau as Liberal Party leader and Canadian prime minister after his predecessor stepped down last month.
Polls indicate that Canadians see Carney as a stronger choice to negotiate with Donald Trump. He is a veteran of economic turmoil, having dealt with the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit.
Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney after an English-language leaders’ debate in Montreal. Pic: Reuters
At a weekend news conference, Sky News asked the Canadian prime minister what lessons he’d learned from Brexit that could be applied to his dealings with Donald Trump.
He replied: “The lessons of Brexit are beginning to be applied. When you break off, or substantially rupture, trading relationships with your major trading partners, including the most important trading partner of the United States, you end up with slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, volatility, weaker currency, a weaker economy.
“We’re in the early stages of that in the United States, and that’s one of the important things here. With respect to influencing the president, with respect to the dynamics of a negotiation, America’s going to get weaker as time goes on, we’re going to get stronger.”
Canada’s vote is as close as it gets to a single-issue election.
Carney’s position as favourite is reinforced consistently by the opinion polls, although the gap narrowed as election day approached.
It could yet be tight.
World
Trump ‘very disappointed’ in Russian strikes on Ukraine and calls for Putin to ‘sit down and sign a deal’
Donald Trump has said he’s “very disappointed” with Russia as he continues to push for a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.
On Saturday, the US president met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican for their first face-to-face meeting since their explosive White House summit.
The Ukrainian president said the meeting ahead of Pope Francis’s funeral could end up being “historic.” Hours later, Mr Trump questioned Vladimir Putin’s appetite for peace in a Truth Social post.
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From Saturday: Trump meets Zelenskyy at funeral
Speaking before boarding Air Force One on Sunday, Mr Trump again said the meeting went well, and that the Ukrainian leader was “calmer”.
“I think he understands the picture, I think he wants to make a deal,” he said, before turning to Mr Putin and Russia.
“I want him to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal,” the US president said, adding he was “very disappointed that they did the bombing of those places (including Kyiv, where nine people were killed in a Russian airstrike on Friday) after discussions”.
However, Mr Trump said he thinks Mr Zelenskyy is ready to give up Crimea, which the Ukrainian leader has repeatedly said he would refuse to do.
He added that “we’ll see what happens in the next few days” and said “don’t talk to me about Crimea, talk to Obama and Biden about Crimea”.
Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, while Barack Obama was president.
Meanwhile, US secretary of state Marco Rubio told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that a peace deal to end the war was “closer in general than they’ve been any time in the last three years, but it’s still not there”.
“If this was an easy war to end, it would have been ended by someone else a long time ago,” he added on the Meet the Press show.
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It comes after North Korea confirmed it had deployed troops to fight for Russia, months after Ukraine and Western officials said its forces were in Europe.
State media outlet KCNA reported North Korean soldiers made an “important contribution” to expelling Ukrainian forces from Russian territory, likely to be the Kursk region.
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KCNA said leader Kim Jong Un made the decision to deploy troops to Russia and notified Moscow, and quoted him as saying: “They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honour of the motherland.”
It also quoted the country’s ruling Workers’ Party as saying the end of the battle to liberate Kursk showed the “highest strategic level of the firm militant friendship” between North Korea and Russia.
Last June, Mr Kim and Mr Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty after a state visit – his first to the country in 24 years.
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From June 2024: Putin drives Kim around in luxury limo during state visit
The North Korean leader promised at the time “full support and solidarity to the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine”.
World
40 killed in blast at Iran’s biggest port as Tehran denies explosion ‘linked to fuel for missiles’
At least 40 people have been killed and several hundred more injured after an explosion and fire at Iran’s largest port, according to state media.
The blast, at the Shahid Rajaei container hub near the southern city of Bandar Abbas, happened on Saturday as Iran held a third round of talks with the US in Oman about Tehran’s nuclear programme.
Shipping containers burned, goods inside were badly damaged and the explosion was so powerful that windows several miles away were shattered, reports said.
Iranian Red Crescent rescuers work at the site of the blast. Pic: Reuters
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The blast at the Shahid Rajaei port happened as Iran and the US met for the third round of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program.
Helicopters and aircraft dumped water from the air on the blaze and by Sunday afternoon it was 90% extinguished, the head of Iran’s Red Crescent Society told state media.
Officials said port activities had resumed in unaffected parts of Shahid Rajaei.
Out of the 752 people who had received treatment for their injuries, 190 were still being treated in medical centres on Sunday, according to Iran’s crisis management organisation.
Chemicals at the port were suspected to have worsened the blast, but the exact cause of the explosion was not clear.
Iran’s defence ministry denied international media reports that the explosion may be connected to the mishandling of solid fuel used for missiles.
The reports were “aligned with enemy psyops [psychological operations]”, according to a ministry spokesperson, who told state TV the blast-hit area did not contain any military cargo.
Firefighters work to extinguish the blaze. Pic: AP
Pic: AP
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According to the Associated Press, British security company Ambrey said that the port in March received sodium perchlorate, which is used to propel ballistic missiles and the mishandling of which could have led to the explosion.
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The Financial Times previously reported two Iranian vessels had shipped from China enough of the ingredient to propel up to 260 mid-range missiles.
It was reportedly to help Tehran replenish stocks after its missile attacks on Israel in 2024.
Iran’s military has sought to deny the delivery of sodium perchlorate from China.
Iran’s state-run Irna news agency reported on Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin deployed several emergency aircraft to Bandar Abbas to provide help.
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