Russia is running out of weapons for its war in Ukraine and the costs to the Kremlin are “staggering” in terms of soldiers killed and equipment lost, a UK spy chief will say.
Sir Jeremy Fleming, the head of GCHQ, will use a rare, public speech on Tuesday to say the Ukrainian armed forces are “turning the tide” on the physical battlefield as well as in cyberspace.
The top intelligence officer will also talk about China – the main focus of his comments.
He will say Beijing is seeking to exploit technologies in space and online in ways that could pose a “huge threat to us all”.
Sir Jeremy will flag concerns about the potential for the Chinese government to target the satellites of opponents at a time of conflict, crippling a crucial domain relied upon by militaries to launch weapons and communicate. It is feared the technology could also be used to track people.
He will also say the Chinese Communist Party is “learning the lessons” from Russia’s war in Ukraine, which has seen the UK and its allies hit the Russian economy with sanctions.
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Sir Jeremy will describe how Beijing could use digital currencies to track people’s transactions and also help to protect its economy from the sort of sanctions being applied to Vladimir Putin‘s regime.
Western allies are watching China closely amid concerns President Xi Jinping might be considering an invasion of the island of Taiwan, using the lessons drawn from Russia’s attack on Ukraine to bolster its defences against any western response.
In a speech at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London, the director of GCHQ will touch on the war in Ukraine.
He will call decision-making by Russian President Vladimir Putin “flawed” following a failure to seize Kyiv in the first days of the war and a failure to make the gains he had wanted to achieve in the east.
“It’s a high stakes strategy that is leading to strategic errors in judgement,” Sir Jeremy will say, according to exerts of the speech released on Monday night.
“Their gains are being reversed. The costs to Russia – in people and equipment are staggering. We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out.
“Russia’s forces are exhausted. The use of prisoners to reinforce, and now the mobilisation of tens of thousands of inexperienced conscripts, speaks of a desperate situation.
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The main thrust of the speech will be about China and the critical importance of western allies staying in the race for technological advantage.
The head of GCHQ will highlight a paradox that Beijing’s “great strength combined with fear is driving China into actions that could represent a huge threat to us all”.
Talking about the huge importance and impact on daily life of emerging technologies, Sir Jeremy will refer to a “sliding door moment” in history, using the rather unusual analogy of the 1998 romantic comedy starring Gwyneth Paltrow in which a seemingly inconsequential event – catching a train before the door slides shut or missing it – has huge implications.
The spy chief will underline the need of ensuring western allies have technological solutions that do not rely on China given the divergence in values between democratic and authoritarian regimes.
“At GCHQ it is our privilege and duty to see the sliding door moments of history,” he will say.
“This feels like one of those moments. Our future strategic technology advantage rests on what we as a community do next. I’m confident that together we can tilt that in our collective favour.”
Highlighting the dangers of not acting, he will accuse the Chinese government of using its financial and scientific clout to manipulate key technologies such as satellite systems and digital currencies to expand its sphere of influence and tighten its grip on power at home.
He will talk specifically about the BeiDou satellite system which the authorities have forces Chinese citizens and businesses to adopt as well as exporting it around the world.
Sir Jeremy will say: “Many believe that China is building a powerful anti-satellite capability, with a doctrine of denying other nations access to space in the event of a conflict. And there are fears the technology could be used to track individuals.”
He will also talk about central bank digital currencies that allow China to monitor the transactions of users.
In addition, the GCHQ boss will say how a centralised digital currency could “enable China to partially evade the sort of international sanctions currently being applied to Putin’s regime in Russia”.
A fire has ripped through a Russian missile depot in the Tver region deep inside the country after it was targeted in a Ukrainian drone attack, the defence ministry in Moscow has said.
Footage shows a second Ukrainian drone attack on the southwestern Russian region of Krasnodar also triggered a fire and caused a series of explosions.
Russia’s defence ministry has claimed its forces shot down 101 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory and occupied Crimea during the overnight attacks.
The drone strikes were carried out as Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskky said he is hoping to meet Donald Trump next week when he travels to the US – where he will present US President Joe Biden with a “victory plan” in relation to the war.
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s foreign minister said Russia appears to be planning strikes on Ukrainian nuclear facilities before the winter.
Posts on local Telegram channels said a Ukrainian drone attack struck an arms depot near the town of Toropets, in Russia’s Tver region – which is about 380 kilometres (240 miles) northwest of Moscow and about 500 kilometres (300 miles) from the Ukrainian border on Saturday.
Russian authorities closed a 100-kilometre (62-mile) stretch of a highway and evacuated passengers from a nearby rail station.
The depot appeared to be just miles from a Russian weapons arsenal storing missiles, bombs and ammunition in Tver that was struck by Ukrainian drones early Wednesday, injuring 13 people and also causing a huge fire.
Meanwhile, at least 1,200 people were evacuated from Russia’s southwestern Krasnodar region after an ammunition depot and missile arsenal were struck in the second drone attack overnight, the local governor has said.
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Most of those evacuated were staying with friends and relatives, Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of Krasnodar region, said on the Telegram messaging app.
There were no immediate reports of casualties in either Tver or Krasnodar.
Ukraine warning of attacks on nuclear sites
It comes as Kyiv is urging the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Ukraine’s allies to establish permanent monitoring missions at the country’s nuclear plants as it warns they could be targeted in Russian attacks.
“In particular, it concerns open distribution devices at (nuclear power plants and) transmission substations, critical for the safe operation of nuclear energy,” foreign minister Andriy Sybiha wrote on X.
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian leader has said he plans to meet Republican presidential candidate Mr Trump on either Thursday or Friday next week.
During the trip, Mr Zelenskyy will present Mr Biden with a so-called victory plan as he hopes to bring about an end to the conflict.
The Ukrainian president has said the plan will include long-range striking capabilities and other weapons long sought by Kyiv, and will serve as the basis for any future negotiation with Russia.
He is also expected to push Washington to lift restrictions on long-range missile strikes inside Russia.
Mr Zelenskyy will attend sessions of the UN Security Council and General Assembly and also plans to meet vice president Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate in this year’s US election, in separate meetings on 26 September.
The developments come as three sources have told Reuters that Iran did not include mobile launchers with the close-range ballistic missiles that Washington has accused Tehran of delivering to Russia for use against Ukraine.
The sources – a European diplomat, a European intelligence official and a US official – said it was not clear why Iran did not supply launchers with the Fath-360 missiles, raising questions about when and if the weapons will be operational.
At least 44 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon and Gaza in the last 24 hours.
A strike on the Lebanese capital Beirut killed at least 31 people including three children and seven women, the country’s health minister Firas Abiad said.
Fifteen of the 68 wounded in the attack remain in hospital.
Ali Harake, the head of the rescue team searching through the rubble, told Sky News his team is still looking for between 17 and 18 missing people – though he fears none have survived.
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It is understood two apartment blocks in a densely populated southern neighbourhood collapsed in the strike – the deadliest attack on Beirut in decades.
Top Hezbollah commanders are believed to have been meeting in the basement of one of the buildings.
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Hezbollah has confirmed two of its senior commanders, Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi, died in the strike while an Israeli military spokesperson said that at least 16 Hezbollah militants were killed.
Wahbi oversaw the military operations of the Radwan special forces – a commando unit that seeks to infiltrate and carry out attacks in Israel – until early 2024. Aqil was also a top commander for the Iran-backed group.
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The Palestinian militant group Hamas has described the killing of Aqil as a “crime” and a “folly”, adding Israel will “pay the price”.
Meanwhile, at least 13 people have been killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza City, according to a local report.
The strikes are believed to have hit several schools sheltering displaced people in the southern part of the city.
The strikes come after Hezbollah launched one of its most intense bombardments of northern Israel in nearly a year of fighting, largely targeting Israeli military sites.
Israel’s Iron Dome missile defence system intercepted most of the Katyusha rockets.
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Hezbollah said its latest wave of rocket attacks was a response to past Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon.
It came days after mass explosions of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies killed at least 37 people, including two children. Some 2,900 others were wounded in the assault which has been widely attributed to Israel.
The Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut came as the Lebanese caretaker government was having an emergency meeting to discuss the previous two days of pager and radio explosions.
It caused yet more shock in a nation which considers itself battle-hardened after years of strife, disaster and wars.
But Lebanon has been truly rocked to its core by the string of attacks over the past few days.
“These are war crimes,” one Lebanese minister told us.
He’s been on the US most wanted list for more than forty years after being accused of being involved in the bombing of the US embassy and US marine barracks in 1983 which killed hundreds.
But the Hezbollahstronghold of Dahieh is a heavily populated crowded residential area and packed with shops, markets, and high-rise apartments.
The strike appeared to have flattened an entire block, flipping cars and leaving other vehicles covered in a heavy blanket of thick dust and rubble.
Several people could be seen in video footage filmed by neighbours, trapped under piles of rubble.
The Lebanese health authority keeps on updating the number of people killed in the strike, with the latest figures reaching 14.
There are more than 60 injured, with some of those believed to be in critical condition. Children are said to be among the dead, missing and injured.
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Aftermath of IDF strike on Lebanon
‘Our actions speak for themselves’
The Israeli military immediately claimed success – saying that, along with Aqil, the strike had wiped out about 10 of his elite Radwan Force.
According to an IDF spokesman, who did not provide any evidence, Aqil’s team had been planning an attack into northern Israel similar to the Hamas attack on 7 October.
Both the prime minister and defence minister have vowed to restore security to the north of Israel so the 60,000 residents who have fled the cross-border attacks can return to their homes.
An estimated 120,000 Lebanese have also been forced out of their homes along the border.
The airstrike in the capital is the second in Beirut in two months – both, according to the IDF, targeted at senior Hezbollah commanders.
According to sources being quoted in Lebanese media, the Hezbollah group of senior leaders was meeting in an underground basement of a large housing block when the missile penetrated.
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It is unlikely to be seen as a justifiable precision attack – or a “targeted strike”, as described by the Israeli military – if the Lebanese government ministers’ reactions are anything to go by.
We spoke to several as they arrived for their emergency cabinet meeting in the hour before the attack.
They were already incensed by the back-to-back coordinated booby trap explosions of communication devices across the country. Israel has yet to confirm or deny its involvement in the blasts.
Speaking about the pager and radio explosions across Lebanon earlier this week, the country’s environment minister and head of its disaster management committee Nasser Yassin said: “It’s genocidal, it’s indiscriminate and a violation of international humanitarian law and every other law.
“We have an insane leadership on the southern end of our borders who don’t want to be indicted by the International Court of Justice.”
The information minister Ziad Makary called the explosions of communication devices “a new crime… it’s a war crime and not something that would pass easily trying to kill three thousand or four thousand civilians as we see them”.
And Amin Salam, the economy minister, warned: “Things are escalating by the minute.
“There’s more tension, more provocation. We have been doing our best to get to a peaceful solution but the escalation is unprecedented.
“It’s an act of terror, regardless of who was targeted.”
Most intense border fighting in nearly a year
The airstrike in Beirut came after a marked increase in cross-border exchanges – the most intense in nearly a year.
The Israeli military said Hezbollah had spent the early part of the day firing nearly 200 rockets across the border into Israel.
Many of them were intercepted by the Iron Dome defence system.
This followed the Israeli bombing of more than 50 targets in the south of Lebanon overnight – which the IDF said hit launchers and weapons stores.
The Israeli military is suffering losses too – there were two funerals today for Israeli soldiers killed on their northern border – but it’s Hezbollah which seems to be paying a far heavier price right now.
Hezbollah unilaterally entered this latest war on 8 October, much to the frustration of Lebanon’s caretaker government, and a day after the Hamas attack on southern Israel.
Hezbollah have repeatedly said their actions are in support of Gaza and have continued to insist they will only stop once there’s a ceasefire.
But right now, the fighting group allied to Iran – and designated a terror group by the US and UK – appears to be very much on the backfoot after three attacks in four days.
Meanwhile, Israel is ploughing on despite the cries of indignation and condemnation from the international community.
Additional reporting from Beirut with camera Jake Britton, specialist producer Chris Cunningham and Lebanon producers Jihad Jineid and Sami Zein.