Liz Truss has said publicly what Downing Street has said privately for some time: that there will “absolutely” be no public spending cuts.
The prime minister wants to be seen sticking to the promise she made during the Tory leadership campaign. It drew gasps in the chamber and sounds like a big deal: but it’s complicated and some caution is required.
This is a more wide-ranging commitment than the line from the Treasury for the last couple of weeks that the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, would stick to the three-year spending plans set out under Boris Johnson’s government in 2021.
However there is much public spending outside of Whitehall departmental totals presumed to be in the firing line, as this government works out how to credibly fill the black hole created by the mini-budget with its tax cuts and energy price plan. And post-2025 spending settlements are clearly under fire.
This does represent another, tougher self-imposed limit to her options. But how significant is it?
It’s very important to remember that much of the debate is not necessarily about cuts in absolute terms, but about growing more slowly.
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That’s the nub of the very public debate the cabinet has been having about whether to uprate – or increase – benefits by wages or inflation.
In either scenario, the budget grows, just more slowly by the former than the latter.
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The challenge is that inflation – at recent record highs – will eat into these increasing budgets, in a way that will feel like public spending cuts. Often spending review settlements are presented once inflation is taken into account.
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1:16
Truss ‘absolutely’ won’t reduce spending
This government can keep the absolute figure of spending level for years, but each pound available will go less far.
It’s also unclear how you make the tens of billions needed to cover the additional borrowing that Ms Truss’s mini-budget created.
But there’s much we don’t know about what Mr Kwarteng will need to do on 31 October: we don’t know the actual size of the black hole (could it be materially less than the £60bn+ forecast by the IFS?), could the renewable energy “windfall tax”-style deal raise tens of billions, could other Treasury “tricks” – like raising the state pension age and increasing future migration programmes – also flatter the public finances?
There’s an awful lot we don’t know.
It’s also important to remember that if you’ve just spent £200bn more on public spending in the first month of the Truss government it’s actually quite easy to say public spending won’t dip below the starting baseline – presumably the day she came to government – in future.
So the PM may well be telling people that the government isn’t shrinking spending but it might not feel like that to voters.
The United Nations has condemned airdrops on Gaza, warning they risk killing the starving Palestinians they are intended to help.
Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel parachuted aid packages into the territory for the first time in months at the weekend amid claims a third of the population has not eaten for days.
But Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general for the UN Relief and Work Agency for Palestinian Refugees (UNRWA), has said they “will not reverse the deepening starvation” and often do more harm than good.
“They are expensive, inefficient & can even kill starving civilians,” he wrote in a statement on X.
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There are several ways humanitarian agencies and international allies can deliver aid to regions in need – by land, by sea, or by air.
While parachuting in supply packages from planes may look impressive, airdrops are “fraught with problems”, Sky correspondent in Jordan Sally Lockwood says, and often used as a “desperate last resort”.
“Foreign nations know airdrops are a deeply flawed way of delivering aid,” she says.
“Palestinian sources tell us the aid that’s been dropped so far is not reaching the most vulnerable. They are an attempt to get something to a few – often viewed as a desperate last resort. Gaza is at that point.”
Image: A plane drops aid over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP
Image: Air drops land over Gaza City on Sunday. Pic: AP
Military analyst Sean Bell says that delivering aid by air is ideally done when planes can land on a runway – but Gaza’s only landing strip in Rafah was shut down in 2021.
The alternative is “very dangerous”, he warns. “Aircraft flying relatively low and slow over a warzone isn’t very clever. When these parcels hit the ground, there’s a significant danger of them hitting people.”
Image: People in Gaza scramble for aid on Saturday. Pic: @ibrahim.st7 via Storyful
Crucially, they can only deliver a fraction of what lorries can.
“The really big issue is aircraft can only deliver one truckload of aid. Gaza needs 500 truckloads a day, so it’s 0.2% of the daily need,” Bell adds.
They also risk falling into the wrong hands and ending up on the black market.
“Some of it has been looted by gangs and is on the black market already,” Lockwood says.
Image: Air drops land in northern Gaza on Sunday. Pic: AP
Why are they happening now?
Israel cut off all supplies to Gaza at the beginning of March, reopening some aid centres in May, but with restrictions they said were designed to stop goods being stolen by Hamas militants.
Israeli authorities control the only three border crossings to the strip: Kerem Shalom in the south, Crossing 147 in the centre, and Erez to the north.
Since the current conflict with Hamas began in October 2023, humanitarian agencies and world leaders have repeatedly accused Israel of not allowing enough deliveries through.
Mr Lazzarini says the UN has “the equivalent of 6,000 trucks” in neighbouring Jordan and Egypt “waiting for the green light to get into Gaza”.
Israel says it has commissioned a “one-week scale-up of aid”, having conducted its own airdrops on Saturday.
In a statement over the weekend, the Israeli Defence Forces said it will work with the UN and other aid organisations to ensure aid is delivered but no more details were given.
Meanwhile on Sunday, it began daily 10-hour pauses in fighting in three areas of Gaza to address the deteriorating humanitarian situation.
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1:19
Baby Zainab starved to death in Gaza
According to the Hamas-run health ministry, 133 Palestinians had died of malnutrition by then, including 87 children.
Doctors Without Borders warned on Friday that 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are malnourished.
Israel says there is no famine in Gaza.
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Sky’s Sally Lockwood on the runway in Jordan ahead of Gaza aid airdrop
What are in the airdrops and who is behind them?
Air packages are largely being delivered by C-130 planes. Jordan is reported to be using 10 and the UAE eight.
They can carry eight pallets of goods each, weighing around eight tonnes in total, according to Lockwood, who is on the runway at Jordan’s King Abdullah II airbase.
There are no medical supplies in the packages, she says, only dried food, rice, flour, and baby formula.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has said the UK will help with airdrops – but no British aircraft have been seen in Jordan so far.
He will discuss the matter with US President Donald Trump during talks in Scotland on Monday.
The RAF delivered 110 tonnes of aid across 10 drops last year as part of a Jordanian-led international coalition – but it is not clear what level of support will be offered this time.
Israel has agreed to support a “one-week scale-up of aid” in Gaza – but the United Nations has warned more action is needed to “stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis”.
UN aid chief Tom Fletcher made the remarks as Israel began limited pauses in fighting across three areas of Gaza for 10 hours a day to address the worsening humanitarian situation.
Image: A Palestinian man in Beit Lahia carries aid that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters
On Saturday, reports referencing US government data said there was no evidence Hamashad stolen aid from UN agencies.
Images of emaciated Palestinian children have led to widespread criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza, including by allies who are calling for an end to the war.
Mr Fletcher said one in three people in Gaza “hasn’t eaten for days” and “children are wasting away”.
He added: “We welcome Israel’s decision to support a one-week scale-up of aid, including lifting customs barriers on food, medicine and fuel from Egypt and the reported designation of secure routes for UN humanitarian convoys.
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“Some movement restrictions appear to have been eased today, with initial reports indicating that over 100 truckloads were collected.
“This is progress, but vast amounts of aid are needed to stave off famine and a catastrophic health crisis. Across the UN agencies and humanitarian community, we are mobilised to save as many lives as we can.”
Image: An aircraft drops humanitarian aid over Gaza on Sunday. Pic: Reuters
The Israel Defence Forces said yesterday that it is halting military operations in Muwasi, Deir al Balah and Gaza City daily from 10am to 8pm local time (8am to 6pm UK time) until further notice.
Combat operations have continued outside of this 10-hour window. Health officials in Gaza said Israeli strikes killed at least 41 Palestinians overnight into Sunday morning, including 26 seeking aid.
In a statement, the IDF said it would also establish secure routes to help the UN and aid agencies deliver food and other supplies.
Image: A map showing the three areas of Gaza where military action has been paused
Israel’s announcement of what it calls a “tactical pause” in fighting comes after it resumed airdrops of aid into Gaza.
While the IDF reiterated claims there is “no starvation” in the territory, it said the airdrops would include “seven pallets of aid containing flour, sugar and canned food to be provided by international organisations”.
Palestinian sources confirmed that aid had begun dropping in northern parts of the territory.
Image: Palestinians in Beit Lahia carry aid supplies that entered Gaza through Israel. Pic: Reuters
Sabreen Hasson, a Palestinian mother who travelled to an aid point near the Zikim crossing to collect supplies, said: “I came to get flour for my children because they have not tasted flour for more than a week, and thank God, God provided me with a kilo of rice with difficulty.”
But Samira Yahda, who was in Zawaida in central Gaza, said: “We saw the planes, but we didn’t see what they dropped… they said trucks would pass, but we didn’t see the trucks.”
Another Palestinian told the AP news agency that some people feared going out and having a box of aid fall on their children.
Downing Street said Sir Keir will raise “what more can be done to secure the ceasefire [in the Middle East] urgently”, during the meeting at the US president’s Turnberry golf course in Ayrshire.
Reports also suggest the prime minister is planning to interrupt the summer recess and recall his cabinet to discuss the crisis on Tuesday.
Talks in Qatar over a ceasefire ended on Thursday after the US and Israel withdrew their negotiating teams.
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Bob Geldof: ‘Israeli authorities are lying’
Mr Trump blamed Hamas for the collapse of negotiations as he left the US for Scotland, saying the militant group “didn’t want to make a deal… they want to die”.
Meanwhile the exiled head of Hamas in Gaza, Khalil al Hayya, has warned ceasefire negotiations with Israel were “meaningless under continued blockade and starvation”.
In a recorded speech, he added: “The immediate and dignified delivery of food and medicine to our people is the only serious and genuine indication of whether continuing the negotiations is worthwhile.”
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0:51
Israel intercepts Gaza aid boat
During a meeting with the European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen yesterday, Mr Trump emphasised the importance of securing the release of hostages held by Palestinian militants in Gaza.
He said: “They don’t want to give them back, and so Israel is going to have to make a decision.
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1:17
Starmer says UK will help drop aid to Gaza
“I know what I’d do, but I don’t think it’s appropriate that I say it. But Israel is going to have to make a decision,” he said.
Mr Trump also repeated claims, without evidence, that Hamas was stealing food coming into Gaza and selling it.
Israel has begun a pause in fighting in three areas of Gaza to address the worsening humanitarian situation.
The IDF said it would halt fighting in three areas, Muwasi, Deir al-Balah and Gaza City, from 10am to 8pm local time until further notice, beginning today.
In a statement, the IDF said it would also establish secure routes to help the UN and aid agencies deliver food and other supplies.
Image: Palestinians carry aid supplies. Pic: Reuters
Israel’s announcement of what it calls a “tactical pause” in fighting comes after it resumed airdrops of aid into Gaza.
While the IDF reiterated claims there is “no starvation” in Gaza, it said the airdrops would include “seven pallets of aid containing flour, sugar and canned food to be provided by international organisations”.
Reports suggest aid has already been dropped into Gaza, with some injured after fighting broke out.
He told Sky News: “This month, up to now, 1,000 children or 1,000 people have died of starvation. I’m really not interested in what either of these sides are saying.”
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On Saturday, reports referencing US government data said there was no evidence Hamashad stolen aid from UN agencies.
The IDF’s international spokesperson, Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani, described such reports as “fake news” and said Hamas thefts have been “well documented”.
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3:49
Malnourished girl: ‘The war changed me’
Airdrops ‘expensive and inefficient’
It comes as the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said as of Saturday, 127 people have died from malnutrition-related causes, including 85 children.
They include a five-month-old girl who weighed less than when she was born, with a doctor at Nasser Hospital describing it as a case of “severe, severe starvation”.
Health workers have also been weakened by hunger, with some putting themselves on IV drips so they can keep treating badly malnourished patients.
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2:10
Aid waiting to be distributed in Gaza
On Friday, Israel said it would allow foreign countries to airdrop aid into Gaza – but the UN Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) has warned this will not reverse “deepening starvation”.
UNRWA head Philippe Lazzarini described the method as “expensive” and “inefficient”, adding: “It is a distraction and screensmoke. A manmade hunger can only be addressed by political will.
“Lift the siege, open the gates and guarantee safe movements and dignified access to people in need.”
UNRWA has the equivalent of 6,000 trucks in Jordan and Egypt waiting for permission to enter Gaza, he added.
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1:17
PM says UK will help drop aid to Gaza
MSF, also known as Doctors Without Borders, warned on Friday that 25% of young children and pregnant women in Gaza are now malnourished, and said the lack of food and water on the ground was “unconscionable”.
The UN also estimates Israeli forces have killed more than 1,000 people seeking food, the majority near the militarised distribution sites of the US-backed aid distribution scheme run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
In a statement on Friday, the IDF had said it “categorically rejects the claims of intentional harm to civilians”, and reports of incidents at aid distribution sites were “under examination”.
The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) has also previously disputed these deaths were connected with its organisation’s operations, with director Johnnie Moore telling Sky News: “We just want to feed Gazans. That’s the only thing that we want to do.”