How significant is Liz Truss’s pledge on public spending cuts? | Sam Coates
Liz Truss has said publicly what Downing Street has said privately for some time: that there will “absolutely” be no public spending cuts.
The prime minister wants to be seen sticking to the promise she made during the Tory leadership campaign. It drew gasps in the chamber and sounds like a big deal: but it’s complicated and some caution is required.
This is a more wide-ranging commitment than the line from the Treasury for the last couple of weeks that the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, would stick to the three-year spending plans set out under Boris Johnson’s government in 2021.
However there is much public spending outside of Whitehall departmental totals presumed to be in the firing line, as this government works out how to credibly fill the black hole created by the mini-budget with its tax cuts and energy price plan. And post-2025 spending settlements are clearly under fire.
Politics latest: PM pledges not to cut public spending and says ‘last thing’ country needs is a general election
This does represent another, tougher self-imposed limit to her options. But how significant is it?
It’s very important to remember that much of the debate is not necessarily about cuts in absolute terms, but about growing more slowly.
That’s the nub of the very public debate the cabinet has been having about whether to uprate – or increase – benefits by wages or inflation.
In either scenario, the budget grows, just more slowly by the former than the latter.
The challenge is that inflation – at recent record highs – will eat into these increasing budgets, in a way that will feel like public spending cuts. Often spending review settlements are presented once inflation is taken into account.
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Truss ‘absolutely’ won’t reduce spending
This government can keep the absolute figure of spending level for years, but each pound available will go less far.
It’s also unclear how you make the tens of billions needed to cover the additional borrowing that Ms Truss’s mini-budget created.
But there’s much we don’t know about what Mr Kwarteng will need to do on 31 October: we don’t know the actual size of the black hole (could it be materially less than the £60bn+ forecast by the IFS?), could the renewable energy “windfall tax”-style deal raise tens of billions, could other Treasury “tricks” – like raising the state pension age and increasing future migration programmes – also flatter the public finances?
There’s an awful lot we don’t know.
It’s also important to remember that if you’ve just spent £200bn more on public spending in the first month of the Truss government it’s actually quite easy to say public spending won’t dip below the starting baseline – presumably the day she came to government – in future.
So the PM may well be telling people that the government isn’t shrinking spending but it might not feel like that to voters.
An Israeli hostage said “I miss my freedom” in a video released by the terror group Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Alexander Troufanov was among the dozens of people taken prisoner by militants during the 7 October attacks last year.
And while many hostages have since been released or liberated – or found dead – Mr Troufanov’s family are still hoping for his safe return.
“I miss my family, I miss my friends, I miss my life, I miss my freedom,” he says in the video, released by the militant group on Wednesday. His family have authorised its use by media organisations.
“I miss so many things. I want to return home safe and sound.”
His mother, Lena, said she was relieved to see her son alive but was “very worried to hear what he is saying”.
“I urge that every effort be made to secure his immediate release and that of all other hostages. They have no time left,” she said.
Mr Troufanov was taken from Nir-Oz. Pic: Bring Them Home Now
In a message to her son, Lena implored him to keep being strong and hold on.
“Do not lose hope, we will not stop fighting for your release until you are here with us, at home.”
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Read more:
Palestinians in northern Gaza on brink of starvation
A timeline of events since 7 October
The video, which Sky News has not yet been able to independently verify, was released by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The organisation is proscribed as a terror group by the UK and other countries and has been fighting alongside Hamas in Gaza.
At least 1,200 people were killed and about 250 people taken captive during the 7 October attacks last year, according to Israel.
More than 43,000 people have been killed in Gaza in the fighting that has raged for more than a year now, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
World
Thousands evacuated in Spain as residents cover cars in plastic wrap – just two weeks after floods killed 220
Thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes in the Costa del Sol as storms are set to bring fresh misery to parts of southern Spain.
More than 220 people were killed in the country’s worst floods in modern history just two weeks ago, with homes and buildings destroyed and streets turned to rivers of mud.
Now, people are covering their cars in plastic wrap and anchoring them to lamp posts as part of efforts to prepare for more flooding.
Authorities have issued a red alert for heavy rain in the Costa del Sol, with areas around Malaga and Granada also subject to warnings that up to 180 millimetres (7 inches) could fall in 12 hours.
Winds of up to 74 mph (119 kmph) and high seas were also predicted for Tarragona, Barcelona and Murcia.
National weather office AEMET also placed parts of Catalonia in northeast Spain on a red alert, with areas along the coast in Tarragona at high risk of “very strong to torrential rain”.
A man walks through a flooded street after the Campanillas river overflowed, due to heavy rains in Malaga, Spain. Pic: Reuters
Pic: Reuters
Videos on social media showed deep water filling some of Malaga’s main streets this afternoon as residents were told to stay at home.
Police closed roads, bus lines across the city were suspended along with some high-speed trains, and parts of Malaga airport were underwater.
Staff at the Hospital Clinico were filmed wading through water after the laboratory area flooded.
Empty train tracks near a beach, as Spain braces for fresh flooding, near Tarragona. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, people living close to the Campanillas River were told to leave their homes as the water began to rise.
Earlier, 3,000 homes were evacuated as a precaution on the banks of the Guadalhorce River.
In the tourist resort of Marbella, a waterspout was seen moving for several minutes through the sea just off the coast.
The opening tie of the Billie Jean King Cup Finals tennis event between Spain and Poland was also postponed because of the storms.
Previously flood-hit areas around Valencia were issued a less severe weather warning prompting some schools to close until Friday.
Thousands of workers are still removing mud and debris that has accumulated on the roads and clogged sewage pipes and drains in towns around Valencia after the recent deadly floods.
There were fears the mud-filled sewers would struggle to cope even if the new downpours weren’t as torrential.
A man walks past stacked up cars after floods in Catarroja. Pic: AP
Flooding in Spain two weeks ago left cars damaged and covered in mud. Pic: Reuters
Army personnel clean a drainage system blocked by mud in Paiporta, Valencia. Pic: Reuters
As the new weather front moved in, authorities confirmed the bodies of two young brothers who went missing when floods hit their home in October had been found.
Ruben and Izan Matias, aged 3 and 5, were discovered in separate locations near Catarroja, almost six miles downstream from their house in Torrent, according to the Civil Guard.
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How Ukrainian units are downing Russian drones
It comes after thousands of people marched in Valencia over the weekend to demand the resignation of the region’s president following the response to the devastating flooding.
Protesters filled the centre of the eastern Spanish city and chanted “killers!” as they called for Carlos Mazon to go, while others dumped muddy boots outside a regional government building.
One banner read: “Our hands are stained with mud, yours with blood.”
Headlights illuminate a group of soldiers smoking and drinking steaming cups of coffee on the side of a road in northeastern Ukraine.
A fine sleet on another freezing night falls on the silhouetted barrel of a Soviet-era anti-aircraft gun mounted on an ancient, battered lorry.
These are the men of a mobile air defence unit, preparing for another night of tracking and attempting to shoot out of the skies the Russian drones heading for cities and power plants across Ukraine.
We joined the units over 48 hours in the southern sector of the city of Sumy, near the border with Russia.
Captain Serhii, of the 117th Brigade, is a commander in charge of 160 of these men in eight mobile units protecting this area of northeastern Ukraine.
Commander Serhii looking for drones on his scanner
We met up with him in an empty car park next to a high-rise apartment block in Sumy.
Sitting in his 4×4 he squinted in concentration as his scanner showed a handful of drones on a flight path heading towards us from Russia.
Air raid sirens blared in the background.
He signalled for us to follow, and he sped off into the night weaving through checkpoints along empty, darkened country roads.
He had said the drone was near, but we were confused when he suddenly pulled off the road and jumped out of his cab.
Within moments the skies were lit up by mobile anti-aircraft batteries firing into the sky.
Tracers from the bullets flew over our heads and above us we could hear the monotonous sound of the drone as it passed overhead.
Searchlights reflected off a dank, dense fog that had enveloped the countryside criss-crossed in the sky as the units tried to spot the drone.
They didn’t spot or hit the drone, and slowly the sound of its motors grew dimmer and dimmer until there was silence.
“You can see the current weather conditions, it’s foggy, so we’re basically working off sound alone, as thermal imaging and other devices can’t pick them up,” Captain Serhii told me.
“A spotlight is completely pointless, the speed of these drones isn’t particularly high, so technically, we could hit them, but the weather makes it impossible,” he added.
Every night across Ukraine the tarpaulin covers are pulled off these Soviet-era anti-aircraft guns and prepared for action.
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On battered trucks they rumble into the night to take up defensive positions.
These old guns are the country’s main defence against an increasing number of drone attacks from Russia.
The units here say they mostly encounter two types of drones which are usually deployed at the same time: Gerberas and Shaheds.
Gerberas do not carry an explosive payload but instead are designed to confuse Ukraine’s air defence, while the Iranian-supplied Shahed drones carry explosives with pre-programmed targets.
One of the soldiers, Volodymyr, tracks the drones on a handheld tablet. All the men wait, watch the screen, and listen.
“They generally fly between 200-300m up to 3km,” Volodymyr tells me.
“If they’re flying lower than 300m above sea level, the radar won’t pick them up.”
The men start to gather around their anti-air battery unit as a drone flies closer towards our location.
Stuart Ramsay and Volodymyr
The gunner then jumps onto the truck and searches for the target on a radar attached to his weapon.
He will fire when it’s within a 10km range of his position.
The night-time silence in the middle of the field is suddenly shattered by the deafening sound of firing as the gunner goes for the drone.
Then in the fields all around us other units join the attack – it’s so dark we had no idea they were even there.
It’s absolutely relentless.
Captain Serhii tells me their critical job would be made easier with more sophisticated weapons like the American-made Patriot system.
“We need a stronger, more automated air defence system that operates independently of human involvement,” he said.
“Winter is approaching, and our guys who are on duty 24/7 will face incredibly tough conditions, they aren’t made of steel, so having an automated system would be ideal.”
Anti-aircraft unit firing at drones from their truck
He believes any political negotiations with Russia will just end badly for Ukraine.
“A frozen conflict is typically just a temporary pause, and you can’t trust [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, because any agreement made will likely work in Russia’s favour,” he told me.
“They’ll stockpile resources, more Shaheds, rockets, soldiers, even North Koreans, and then they’ll return, and they’ll come back stronger than they did in 2022.”
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We join another mobile unit, this time by the side of an empty road as they track another Iranian Shahed drone.
It’s flying in our direction and they’re waiting to see if it will come into range.
It does, and they too attack – firing powerful rounds at their target.
The red, orange, and yellow flashes of colour as the weapon fires light up an otherwise pitch-black sky.
In the 48-hour period we spent with the anti-aircraft units in this part of the Sumy region, Russia deployed a record number of drones into Ukraine.
Ukraine, for its part, deployed a record number of drones against Russia too, but the number is dwarfed by the Russian assault.
Night after freezing night these Ukrainian defenders, hundreds of them around this city, will man these guns.
The last line of defence – not good, but better than nothing.
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