How significant is Liz Truss’s pledge on public spending cuts? | Sam Coates
Liz Truss has said publicly what Downing Street has said privately for some time: that there will “absolutely” be no public spending cuts.
The prime minister wants to be seen sticking to the promise she made during the Tory leadership campaign. It drew gasps in the chamber and sounds like a big deal: but it’s complicated and some caution is required.
This is a more wide-ranging commitment than the line from the Treasury for the last couple of weeks that the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, would stick to the three-year spending plans set out under Boris Johnson’s government in 2021.
However there is much public spending outside of Whitehall departmental totals presumed to be in the firing line, as this government works out how to credibly fill the black hole created by the mini-budget with its tax cuts and energy price plan. And post-2025 spending settlements are clearly under fire.
Politics latest: PM pledges not to cut public spending and says ‘last thing’ country needs is a general election
This does represent another, tougher self-imposed limit to her options. But how significant is it?
It’s very important to remember that much of the debate is not necessarily about cuts in absolute terms, but about growing more slowly.
That’s the nub of the very public debate the cabinet has been having about whether to uprate – or increase – benefits by wages or inflation.
In either scenario, the budget grows, just more slowly by the former than the latter.
The challenge is that inflation – at recent record highs – will eat into these increasing budgets, in a way that will feel like public spending cuts. Often spending review settlements are presented once inflation is taken into account.
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Truss ‘absolutely’ won’t reduce spending
This government can keep the absolute figure of spending level for years, but each pound available will go less far.
It’s also unclear how you make the tens of billions needed to cover the additional borrowing that Ms Truss’s mini-budget created.
But there’s much we don’t know about what Mr Kwarteng will need to do on 31 October: we don’t know the actual size of the black hole (could it be materially less than the £60bn+ forecast by the IFS?), could the renewable energy “windfall tax”-style deal raise tens of billions, could other Treasury “tricks” – like raising the state pension age and increasing future migration programmes – also flatter the public finances?
There’s an awful lot we don’t know.
It’s also important to remember that if you’ve just spent £200bn more on public spending in the first month of the Truss government it’s actually quite easy to say public spending won’t dip below the starting baseline – presumably the day she came to government – in future.
So the PM may well be telling people that the government isn’t shrinking spending but it might not feel like that to voters.
World
Dublin protests: Prams filled with fireworks as teens – and children as young as seven – clash with police
At least 23 people have been arrested during a second night of violent disorder near an asylum hotel in Dublin.
Two police officers were taken to hospital with injuries sustained during clashes with protesters – including one who was struck on the head by a bottle.
A Sky News crew was caught in the confusion as police charged at crowds, who were throwing fireworks, stones and other debris.
Pic: PA
It is the third night of demonstrations at the Citywest Hotel following an alleged sexual assault in the early hours of Monday morning.
A demonstration in the wake of the incident, which allegedly involved a 10-year-old girl, turned violent on Tuesday night. A police officer was injured and six arrests were made.
A 26-year-old man, who cannot be named due to rules that apply to all sexual assault cases in the Republic of Ireland, appeared in court on Tuesday charged over the alleged attack.
Gardai officers block protesters near the Citywest Hotel in Dublin. Pic: PA
Police had earlier pledged a “robust response” if the violence continued.
Between 7pm and 8pm, hundreds of protesters faced off with around 40 uniformed officers.
The uniformed officers were replaced with the Public Order Unit, who were carrying plastic shields and additional body protection.
A police van was set on fire on Tuesday night.
Protesters detained after stand-off
Hundreds of protesters had been facing off against the public order unit of the Irish police force along Citywest Drive.
While large parts of the crowd dispersed throughout the night, an additional public order unit was deployed to tackle those remaining at the protest shortly after 10pm.
A number of protesters have been detained after fireworks and rocks were thrown at police. Pic: PA
Several of those caught between the two units were tackled and detained as they tried to flee.
Justice minister Jim O’Callaghan said “many have been arrested” and “more will follow” – and went on to praise officers who had responded professionally to “thuggish violence” in the area.
Mr O’Callaghan vowed that those arrested would be “charged, named and dealt with relentlessly” by the criminal justice system.
World
Donald Trump imposes sanctions against Russia’s two biggest oil companies as frustration grows with Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine war
Donald Trump has imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies – and spoke of his frustration with Vladimir Putin.
In a major policy shift, new restrictions have been unveiled against Rosneft and Lukoil – as well as dozens of subsidiaries – due to “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine”.
“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a statement.
“Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. We encourage our allies to join us in, and adhere to, these sanctions.”
The move marked a significant change for the Trump administration, which has veered between pressuring Moscow and taking a more conciliatory approach aimed at securing peace in Ukraine.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaks to reporters at the White House. Pic: Reuters
Trump frustrated with Putin
The US president has resisted pressure to impose energy sanctions on Russia, hoping that Putin would agree to end the fighting. But with no end in sight, he said he felt it was time.
Mr Trump explained he has a “very good relationship” with his Russian counterpart, but felt he had to cancel their planned meeting as “it didn’t feel right to me”.
In a sign of growing frustration, he told reporters: “It didn’t feel like we were going to get to the place we have to get. So I cancelled it. But we’ll do it in the future.
“I have good conversations. And then, they don’t go anywhere. They just don’t go anywhere.”
He also hinted that the sanctions could be lifted if the Russian president was prepared to cooperate in peace talks.
“We hope that they [the sanctions] won’t be on for long,” he said in the Oval Office. “We hope that the war will be settled.”
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Putin-Trump talks: The view from Moscow
Trump wants Xi to help with Ukraine
Ahead of a meeting next week with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Mr Trump said he would like Beijing to help put pressure on Moscow to halt the fighting.
“I think he [Xi] can have a big influence on Putin. I think he can have a big influence … he’s a respected man. He’s a very strong leader of a very big country. And we will certainly be talking about Russia-Ukraine,” he said.
Xi and Putin have formed a strategic alliance between their countries.
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Why Tomahawks are off the table
Ukraine denied Tomahawk missiles
However, Mr Trump warned he is not prepared to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, which Kyiv has requested.
He explained it would take the Ukrainians up to a year to learn how to use the “highly complex” weapons.
“The only way a Tomahawk is going to be shot … is if we shot it. And we’re not going to do that.
“It takes a year of intense training to learn how to use it, and we know how to use it, and we’re not going to be teaching other people.”
Storm Shadow cruise missiles made in the UK and donated to Ukraine have once again been used to strike targets inside Russia.
The long-range weapons – which cost roughly £2m each – have been used to devastating effect in the Black Sea, sinking or damaging several Russian ships, and now against a chemical plant.
Last year, Ukraine’s allies lifted restrictions on Storm Shadows and other long-range missiles, meaning Kyiv’s military can use them against targets across the border.
Follow latest: Storm Shadow missiles used in ‘massive’ attack on Russia
A Storm Shadow missile system. Pic: Gary Dawson/Shutterstock
What are Storm Shadow missiles?
Storm Shadows are cruise missiles developed by the UK and France in the 1990s.
Launched from aircraft, they have a range more than 155 miles, manufacturer MBDA says, and can travel at speeds exceeding 600mph.
The missiles can be used with high precision for deep strikes while evading detection, the manufacturer says.
They have been used by the RAF and French air force and in the Gulf, Iraq and Libya, and more recently have been used by Ukrainian forces.
What sets them apart from some other projectiles is they use terrain mapping to navigate to their target, rather than relying just on GPS, military analyst Sean Bell says.
A Tornado GR4 with Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Pic: Crown copyright
How have they been used in Ukraine?
Back in May 2023, the UK government announced it would provide Ukraine with Storm Shadow missiles – the first country to do so.
Since then they have been used by Kyiv’s defenders to strike Russian targets inside Ukraine and also inside Russia.
Read more:
Putin-Trump meeting in doubt
‘Putin is afraid,’ says Zelenskyy
While operational details of their use do not always emerge, it has been reported Storm Shadows have been used against targets including military headquarters and ships.
Storm Shadows can likely be operated entirely from within Ukraine, though probably with the assistance of intelligence gathered by Western surveillance planes over international waters.
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