How significant is Liz Truss’s pledge on public spending cuts? | Sam Coates

Published

2 years ago

October 12, 2022

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Liz Truss has said publicly what Downing Street has said privately for some time: that there will “absolutely” be no public spending cuts.

The prime minister wants to be seen sticking to the promise she made during the Tory leadership campaign. It drew gasps in the chamber and sounds like a big deal: but it’s complicated and some caution is required.

This is a more wide-ranging commitment than the line from the Treasury for the last couple of weeks that the chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, would stick to the three-year spending plans set out under Boris Johnson’s government in 2021.

However there is much public spending outside of Whitehall departmental totals presumed to be in the firing line, as this government works out how to credibly fill the black hole created by the mini-budget with its tax cuts and energy price plan. And post-2025 spending settlements are clearly under fire.

Politics latest: PM pledges not to cut public spending and says ‘last thing’ country needs is a general election

This does represent another, tougher self-imposed limit to her options. But how significant is it?

It’s very important to remember that much of the debate is not necessarily about cuts in absolute terms, but about growing more slowly.

That’s the nub of the very public debate the cabinet has been having about whether to uprate – or increase – benefits by wages or inflation.

In either scenario, the budget grows, just more slowly by the former than the latter.

The challenge is that inflation – at recent record highs – will eat into these increasing budgets, in a way that will feel like public spending cuts. Often spending review settlements are presented once inflation is taken into account.

This government can keep the absolute figure of spending level for years, but each pound available will go less far.

It’s also unclear how you make the tens of billions needed to cover the additional borrowing that Ms Truss’s mini-budget created.

But there’s much we don’t know about what Mr Kwarteng will need to do on 31 October: we don’t know the actual size of the black hole (could it be materially less than the £60bn+ forecast by the IFS?), could the renewable energy “windfall tax”-style deal raise tens of billions, could other Treasury “tricks” – like raising the state pension age and increasing future migration programmes – also flatter the public finances?

There’s an awful lot we don’t know.

It’s also important to remember that if you’ve just spent £200bn more on public spending in the first month of the Truss government it’s actually quite easy to say public spending won’t dip below the starting baseline – presumably the day she came to government – in future.

So the PM may well be telling people that the government isn’t shrinking spending but it might not feel like that to voters.

World

Ukraine and NATO to hold emergency talks as Russia vows to increase production of ‘unstoppable’ missile

Published

3 hours ago

November 23, 2024

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Ukraine and NATO to hold emergency talks as Russia vows to increase production of 'unstoppable' missile

NATO and Ukraine will hold emergency talks on Tuesday after Vladimir Putin said Russia will ramp up the production of a new, hypersonic ballistic missile.

Ukraine‘s parliament cancelled a session as security was tightened following a Russian strike on Thursday on a military facility in Dnipro, a central city with a population of around one million. No fatalities were reported.

In a nationally-televised speech, Mr Putin said the attack – carried out with an intermediate-range Oreshnik missile – was in retaliation for Ukraine’s use of US and British missiles capable of striking deeper into Russian territory.

Russia war latest: Long-awaited US air defences arrive in Ukraine

“No one in the world has such weapons,” the Russian president said. “Sooner or later other leading countries will also get them. We are aware that they are under development.”

He added: “We have this system now. And this is important.”

Detailing the missile’s alleged capabilities, Mr Putin claimed it is so powerful that using several fitted with conventional warheads in one attack could be as devastating as a strike with nuclear weapons.

General Sergei Karakayev, head of Russia’s strategic missile forces, said the Oreshnik could reach targets across Europe and be fitted with either nuclear or conventional warheads – while Mr Putin alleged Western air defence systems will not be able to stop the missiles.

Mr Putin said of the Oreshnik: “There is no countermeasure to such a missile, no means of intercepting it, in the world today. And I will emphasise once again that we will continue testing this newest system. It is necessary to establish serial production.”

Testing the Oreshnik will happen “in combat, depending on the situation and the character of security threats created for Russia“, the president added, stating there is “a stockpile of such systems ready for use”.

EU leaders condemn Russia’s ‘heinous attacks’

Numerous EU leaders have addressed Russia’s escalation of the conflict with Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk saying the war is “entering a decisive phase [and] taking on very dramatic dimensions”.

Speaking in Kyiv, Czech foreign minister Jan Lipavsky called Moscow’s strike an “escalatory step and an attempt of the Russian dictator to scare the population of Ukraine and to scare the population of Europe”.

At a news conference, Mr Lipavsky gave his full support for delivering the additional air defence systems needed to protect Ukrainian civilians from the “heinous attacks”.

World

Israel hits central Beirut with series of airstrikes – reports

Published

4 hours ago

November 23, 2024

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Israel hits central Beirut with series of airstrikes - reports

Israel has targeted central Beirut with at least four airstrikes, according to security sources cited by Reuters news agency.

Lebanon’s state-run National News Agency said the attack “completely destroyed” an eight-storey residential building in the Basta neighbourhood early on Saturday.

It is not immediately clear how many have been killed or injured and the Israeli military did not warn residents to evacuate before the attack, the fourth targeting the centre this week.

The blasts happened at about 4am (2am UK time) and came after a day of bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburbs, which Israel had warned residents of in advance.

Heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah is ongoing in southern Lebanon, as Israeli forces push deeper into the country since launching a major offensive in September.

US envoy Amos Hochstein was in the region this week to try to end the more than 13 months of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, ignited last October by the Gaza war.

According to the Lebanese health ministry, Israel has killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon and wounded more than 15,000.

It has displaced about 1.2 million people – a quarter of Lebanon’s population – while Israel says about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed in northern Israel.

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World

Woman who accused Conor McGregor of rape wins civil assault case – and is awarded damages

Published

9 hours ago

November 23, 2024

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Woman who accused Conor McGregor of rape wins civil assault case - and is awarded damages

A woman who accused Conor McGregor of raping her has said “justice has been served” after she won her civil case against the Irish mixed martial arts fighter.

Nikita Hand has been awarded €248,603 (£206,000) in damages after a jury at Dublin’s High Court found McGregor assaulted her in a Dublin hotel in 2018.

McGregor, 36, made no comment as he swiftly left court following the decision on Friday evening.

He later said in a statement that he had instructed his legal team to appeal the civil court’s decision, adding he was “disappointed that the jury did not hear all the evidence that the director of public prosecutions reviewed”.

He ended the statement saying: “I am with my family, focused on my future.”

McGregor had previously told the court he had consensual sex with Ms Hand in a penthouse at the Beacon Hotel in December 2018.

‘No matter who the person is, justice will be served’

Speaking outside court after the decision, an emotional Ms Hand said the last two weeks of her civil case against the fighter have been a “nightmare” and has impacted not only her life but her daughter’s, friends and loved ones.

“I would like to start off by saying I’m overwhelmed and touched by the support I have received from everybody,” the mother-of-one said.

“It’s something that I’ll never forget for the rest of my life.

“Now that justice has been served, I can now try and move on and look forward to the future with my family and friends and daughter.”

Ms Hand continued: “I hope my story is a reminder that no matter how afraid you might be: Speak up, you have a voice and keep on fighting for justice.

“You can stand up for yourself if something happens to you – no matter who the person is – and justice will be served.”

Ms Hand told the civil court McGregor pinned her to a bed, choked her three times and “brutally raped and battered” her.

The jury was told she was left with extensive injuries, including purple and blue bruising along her hands and wrists, a bloodied scratch to her breast and tenderness to her neck.

McGregor no longer known for just his sporting abilities

There was not an inch to move in this tiny civil courtroom in centre Dublin.

The jury sat for six hours and 10 minutes, determining the future of one of Ireland’s biggest stars.

You could cut the tension with a knife.

McGregor sat stoney faced taking intermittent, deep heavy breaths as the clerk of the court declared the jury had reached their decision.

The judge sternly told the public gallery he would “jail” anyone who caused a scene when the news came out.

It was a sign of the high stakes in this case.

Within 40 seconds, the judge read out the news that McGregor was dreading, and Nikita Hand was determined to get.

“Did Conor McGregor assault Nikita Hand?”

“Yes” came the reply.

The blood drained from McGregor’s face. His head in his hands.

As the MMA star stepped out of court, he entered a new era. He walked straight to his Bentley, ignoring questions from reporters about whether he feels remorse.

He is no longer just a household name for his sporting abilities.

But lawyers for the fighter contested the lawsuit and accused her of attempted “extortion”.

They pointed to CCTV footage of Ms Hand arriving at and leaving the hotel with McGregor and a second man, James Lawrence, whom she also accused of assault.

Both McGregor and Lawrence denied any wrongdoing. While Ms Hand won her case against McGregor, she lost her claim against Lawrence.

On Monday, McGregor’s legal team told jurors it did not matter if they did not like or even loathed the famous fighter, urging them to look at the evidence and not his character.

McGregor and Ms Hand knew each other and had occasionally been in contact on social media, the civil trial heard.

Before the assault, Ms Hand had contacted the fighter, who picked up her and a friend in his car.

McGregor “came on to her”, but she did not want to have sexual intercourse with him as she was on her period, the court heard.