Jacob Rees-Mogg says he has ‘confidence’ in Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey but disputes pension funds ‘at risk’
Jacob Rees-Mogg has declared his confidence in the governor of the Bank of England, but disputed that pension funds are at “systemic” risk.
Speaking to Sky News, the business secretary said “of course” he has confidence in Andrew Bailey, describing him as “respected”.
He questioned, however, whether there was a “systemic problem” with pensions after the Bank of England expanded its market intervention to help pension funds for the second time in two days on Tuesday by buying up index-linked gilts.
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The Bank had warned of a “material risk to UK financial stability” with “fire sales” of assets if it did not act.
The business secretary said that on the whole, pension funds “aren’t at risk”, but added: “Some pension funds have taken some high risk investments.”
He told Sky News that the “rightly independent” Bank intervened to protect these “risky investments”.
The Bank confirmed yesterday that its emergency support operation to protect pension funds would end this week.
Mr Rees-Mogg repeatedly refused to be drawn on whether the Bank was right to signal an end to its market intervention.
“I’m not going to criticise the Bank of England or the governor,” he said. “It is not for me to speculate on what the Bank of England is doing.”
He also insisted to Kay Burley that parts of the economy were in a “good state” as he admitted that after the economic turmoil of recent weeks his own mortgage payments have gone up.
“Mortgage rates have gone up for everyone who has a mortgage, and I have a mortgage,” he said.
“Any floating rate mortgages have gone up.”
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‘Be careful about forecasts’
Earlier this morning, new Office for National Statistics figures indicated that the economy shrank by 0.3% between July and August, a fall from downwardly revised growth of 0.1% the previous month.
Mr Rees-Mogg urged caution in interpreting them.
“The previous quarter’s figure showed a contraction [and] was then revised to show economic growth. So, be very careful about how you interpret figures immediately after they’re released,” he told Sky News.
“It’s a small amount of a very large economy, but these figures are notorious for being revised afterwards.”
The business secretary also refused to indicate his own view on whether benefits should rise in line with inflation, an issue that has split the Conservative Party.
“We haven’t yet had the inflation figure on which benefits will be set. So, that is something that will be decided once the figure is available,” he said.
“Most predictions, most economic forecasts, turn out to be inaccurate rather than spot on. So, one has got to be careful about forecasts.”
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‘Routine decision-making’
Mr Rees-Mogg said the decision on benefits would be made once inflation figures come out.
“There is a process for making this decision,” he said.
“The statutory instrument has to be laid in November to put through the increase. That will be done in the normal way. This is completely routine governmental decision-making.”
In the Commons on Tuesday Julian Smith, a former cabinet minister, warned Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor, that the government must not balance tax cuts “on the back of the poorest people in our country”.
The government has already been forced to abandon plans to scrap the top 45p rate of tax in the face of a threatened revolt.
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Liz Truss, the prime minister, will face MPs in the Commons on Wednesday for the first time since Mr Kwarteng’s £43bn tax-cutting mini-budget caused economic turmoil.
On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that Mr Kwarteng’s package of unfunded tax cuts was making it harder for the Bank to get soaring inflation rates under control.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned the chancellor he will have to find £60bn in public spending cuts if he persists with his tax plans.
A trio of property giants has lodged a protest against a radical financial restructuring that will see Cineworld imposing steep rent cuts on its landlords.
Sky News has learnt that British Land, Landsec and Legal & General Investment Management all voted against the cinema operator’s restructuring plan this week.
Cineworld has confirmed plans to close six of its UK multiplexes, but documents circulated to creditors show almost 50 others are in categories requiring landlords to agree to revised rent deals in order to ensure their long-term viability.
Although they carry significant influence in the commercial property sector, the trio’s protest will have no impact on the outcome of the company’s proposals, since its owners are now also among its largest creditors, meaning they can effectively force the deal through.
According to documents sent to creditors during the summer, 33 sites – categorised as Class B – “require a reduction of rent to ERV [Estimated Rental Value] Rent in order to place the sites on a viable long-term footing”.
A further 38 of Cineworld’s cinemas would be unaffected, while another 16 Class C1 and C2 leases require reductions to either turnover rent or zero rent in order to render them financially viable.
The documents added that the company did not have sufficient funding to meet a quarterly rent bill on June 24 of £15.9m.
“The UK group did not have sufficient liquidity to make the June 2024 Rent Payment and required further funding from the US Group to meet this liquidity need.
“Absent this funding, the UK Group would have been insolvent on a cashflow basis.”
Cineworld is being advised by AlixPartners.
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Other cinema operators are now poised to step in to take over some of Cineworld’s sites.
The company trades from more than 100 locations in Britain, including at the Picturehouse chain, and employs thousands of people.
Cineworld grew under the leadership of the Greidinger family into a global giant of the industry, acquiring chains including Regal in the US in 2018 and the British company of the same name four years earlier.
Its multibillion-dollar debt mountain led it into crisis, though, and forced the company into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2022.
It delisted from the London Stock Exchange last August, having seen its share price collapse amid fears for its survival.
Cineworld also operates in central and Eastern Europe, Israel and the US.
A long-running measure of consumer confidence has slumped to levels last seen at the start of the year following warnings of “tough choices” ahead in the looming budget.
GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index fell seven points in September to minus 20, with significant drops in predictions for personal finances and the general economy over the coming year.
The report’s authors suggested it was “not encouraging news” for the new government, which has made growing the economy its top priority.
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But within weeks of taking the post of chancellor, Rachel Reeves – followed by prime minister Sir Keir Starmer – moved to warn of a legacy £22bn “black hole” in the public finances and said it would result in a painful budget on 30 October.
Among measures already taken include cuts to winter fuel payments, leaving up to 10 million pensioners up to £300 worse off, and inflation-busting public sector pay settlements.
Tax rises and spending cuts are widely expected in next month’s statement to MPs though The Times reported on Friday that a decision by the Bank of England to slow a programme of loss-making bond sales would leave Ms Reeves £10bn better off than she had anticipated.
It added that she was still expected to push forward with her budget plans anyway as a signal of her commitment to fiscal discipline.
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The latest snapshot on the public finances, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday showed net borrowing of £13.7bn during August.
Its chief economist, Grant Fitzner, said: “Borrowing was up by over £3bn last month on 2023’s figure, and was the third highest August borrowing on record.
“Central government tax receipts grew strongly, but this was outweighed by higher expenditure, largely driven by benefits uprating and higher spending on public services due to increased running costs and pay.”
Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of the UK economy.
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Data released separately on Friday showed a 1% rise in retail sales volumes during August in the wake of weakness, mostly blamed on poor weather, over the previous couple of months.
The ONS said that the increase was driven by supermarket sales, as demand for BBQ food and drinks rose due to the arrival of some sunshine over the key holiday month.
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It also credited discounting by clothing retailers.
The data chimes with the latest updates from big retailers, including Next and B&Q’s owner, which have spoken of weak demand for so-called big ticket items such as home furnishings and kitchens respectively.
GfK’s closely-watched survey showed expectations for the general economy over the next 12 months fell by 12 points to -27, while the forecast for personal finances was down nine points to -3.
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Commenting on its key measures, including the headline figure, consumer insights director at GfK Neil Bellamy said: “These three measures are key forward-looking indicators so despite stable inflation and the prospect of further cuts in the base interest rate, this is not encouraging news for the UK’s new government.”
He added: “Strong consumer confidence matters because it underpins economic growth and is a significant driver of shoppers’ willingness to spend.
“Following the withdrawal of the winter fuel payments, and clear warnings of further difficult decisions to come on tax, spending and welfare, consumers are nervously awaiting the budget decisions on October 30.”
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