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Salvadoran President, Nayib Bukele speaks during an event in May 2021. El Salvador become the first country to adopt bitcoin as legal tender in June.

Camilo Freedman | SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images

It has been more than a year since El Salvador made history by becoming the first country to make bitcoin legal tender, and so far, 37-year-old resident Edgardo Acevedo has found the nationwide crypto experiment to be relatively anticlimactic.

“I don’t think anything has changed, except that the country is more recognized than before, but the economic life of Salvadorans remains the same or worse than a few years ago,” said Acevedo, a development engineer working in the capital city of San Salvador.

Acevedo, who is also known by the pseudonym Ishi Kawa, tells CNBC that while bitcoin has become a topic of conversation, adoption remains low, and he has personally found that there are very few businesses that accept the world’s biggest cryptocurrency — and even fewer Salvadorans who wish to pay in the digital token.

“What has improved is the issue of violence and crime, but economically, I can say that nothing has changed,” he said.

It has been a rocky time, with the project not living up to the grand promises made by the country’s popular and outspoken president Nayib Bukele.

The use of bitcoin in El Salvador appears to be low, as the currency has lost about 60% of its value since the experiment started and the country still faces plummeting economic growth and a high deficit. El Salvador’s debt-to-GDP ratio — a key metric used to compare what a country owes with what it generates — is set to hit nearly 87% this year, stoking fears that the nation isn’t equipped to settle its loan obligations.

Data from Bloomberg Economics shows that El Salvador tops its ranking of emerging market countries that are vulnerable to a debt default. Even as it retires some of its outstanding debts, the country’s domestic and multilateral loan obligations pose a real threat, in part because the world’s biggest lenders aren’t too keen to give cash to a country betting its future on one of the most volatile assets on the planet.

Pair these economic woes with a renewed war on gang violence and the country is barreling toward uncertainty.

“The government claims the developments as a success, but most local commentators and international watchers are underwhelmed,” Rachel Ziemba, founder of Ziemba Insights, told CNBC.

El Salvador's new bitcoin wallet could totally disrupt the remittance process

Bitcoin uptake appears low

When El Salvador’s Bitcoin Law came into effect Sept. 7, 2021, Jaime Garcia was hopeful that it would fix a few big problems with the way that Salvadorans send, receive and spend money.

As part of the law, prices are now sometimes listed in bitcoin, tax contributions can be paid with the digital currency, and exchanges in bitcoin will not be subject to capital gains tax. But crucially, Bukele promoted the law as a way to expand financial inclusion — which is no small thing for a country where approximately 70% of the population does not have access to traditional financial services, according to the Bitcoin Law.

To help facilitate national adoption, El Salvador launched a virtual wallet called “chivo” (Salvadoran slang for “cool”) that offers no-fee transactions, allows for quick cross-border payments, and requires only a mobile phone plus an internet connection. It aimed to bring users onboard quickly, both to scale bitcoin adoption and to offer a convenient onramp for those who had never been a part of the banking system.

Bukele tweeted in January that about 60% of the population, or 4 million people, used the chivo app, and more Salvadorans have chivo wallets than traditional bank accounts, according to a Sept. 20 research note from Deutsche Bank. Still, only 64.6% of the country has access to a mobile phone with internet, that note says.

But a report published in April by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research showed that only 20% of those who downloaded the wallet continued to use it after spending the $30 bonus. The research was based upon a “nationally representative survey” involving 1,800 households.

Garcia, who lives in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan, fled El Salvador when he was 11 after rebels bombed his house, but he keeps in close touch with family and friends who stayed behind — and he sometimes sends money back home, too.

“There are pockets where bitcoin is popular, like in El Zonte, but it’s clear that adoption is not massive,” said Garcia.

“Big chains like McDonald’s, Starbucks, and most merchants at a mall will accept bitcoin — but are people using it? Not too much locally,” he said. “It’s mostly tourists using bitcoin.”

A survey by the El Salvador-based El Instituto de Opinion Publica, a public opinion think tank, found that 7 in 10 Salvadorans do not think the Bitcoin Law has benefited their family economy.

Another survey by the institute found that 76 out of 100 small and medium-size enterprises in El Salvador do not accept bitcoin payments.

“Bitcoin’s first year in effect has transcended from a commercial expectation to an irrelevant topic for traders,” said Laura Andrade, director of El Salvador’s Universidad Centroamericana, according to a CNBC translation of her Spanish-language comments.

Andrade said many large corporations are still advertising that they’re taking payments in bitcoin but are making excuses to not accept the cryptocurrency including saying their system does not work or the bitcoin wallet is out of service.

“The foregoing is evidence that this cryptocurrency, in reality, never had penetration in national commerce,” Andrade said.

“There seems to be evidence that most people used it primarily to get the free money from the government but have not used it on an ongoing basis given volatility and fees,” Ziemba said.

Meanwhile, those who did use the government’s crypto wallet reportedly had technical problems with the app. Other Salvadorans fell prey to schemes involving identity theft, in which hackers used their national ID number to open a chivo e-wallet, in order to claim the free $30 worth of bitcoin offered by the government as an incentive to join.

survey published in March by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of El Salvador found that 86% of businesses have never made a sale in bitcoin, and only 20% of businesses take bitcoin, despite the Law’s mandate that all merchants accept the cryptocurrency.

“They gave people the wallets, they forced businesses to accept them, but essentially, in my opinion, it’s a big nothing burger,” said Frank Muci, a policy fellow at the London School of Economics, who has experience advising governments in Latin America. “Nobody really uses the app to pay in bitcoin. People that do use it, mostly use it for dollars.”

The experiment also involved building a nationwide infrastructure of bitcoin ATMs, but they’re too far away for many people to use.

Another hope for the chivo wallet was that it would help save hundreds of millions of dollars in remittance fees. Remittances, or money sent home by migrants, account for more than 20% of El Salvador’s gross domestic product, and some households receive over 60% of their income from this source alone. Incumbent services can charge 10% or more in fees for those international transfers, which can sometimes take days to arrive and require a physical pickup.

But in 2022, recent data shows that only 1.6% of remittances were sent to El Salvador via digital wallets. According to the Deutsche Bank report from September, part of the reason bitcoin transfers haven’t caught on has to do with the complications of buying and selling bitcoin for dollars. The report notes that “people who send and receive remittances frequently use informal brokers to convert local currency to and from bitcoin” and extremely volatile prices make buying and selling the cryptocurrency a complex task requiring technical know-how.

“This is a new money, a new way of doing things for a population that is very comfortable with dollars. This is a population that is largely unbanked and would rather deal with hard cash that they can see and feel,” Garcia said.

Miles Suter, the crypto product lead at Cash App, told CNBC on a panel at the Messari Mainnet conference in New York that the government’s 90-day rollout of the chivo wallet and nationwide adoption of bitcoin was “rushed” and that there are still a lot of problems.

“You shouldn’t mandate the acceptance of a specific currency,” said Suter, who spent six months in El Salvador in the runup to the passing of the Bitcoin Law. However, Suter added that the media perception is worse than how things are actually going on the ground.

“I saw and experienced lives being changed by having access to a new emerging monetary standard,” he said.

A look at El Salvador's crypto experiment after making bitcoin its national currency

‘Sleepwalking into a debt default’

Well before Bukele wagered that bitcoin would bandage over longstanding economic vulnerabilities, the country was in a lot of trouble.

The World Bank projects that the Salvadoran economy will grow by 2.9% this year and 1.9% in 2023, down from 10.7% in 2021. But that growth itself was a bounce-back from an 8.6% contraction in 2020.

Its debt-to-GDP ratio is almost 90%, and its debt is expensive at around 5% per year versus 1.5% in the U.S. The country also has a massive deficit — with no plans to reduce it, whether through tax hikes or by substantially cutting spending.

In a research note from JPMorgan, analysts warn that El Salvador’s eurobonds have entered “distressed territory” in the last year, and S&P Global data reportedly shows that the cost to insure against a sovereign debt default is hitting multiyear highs.

Both JPMorgan and the International Monetary Fund warn the country is on an unsustainable path, with gross financing needs set to surpass 15% of GDP from 2022 forward — and public debt on track to hit 96% of GDP by 2026 under current policies.

El Salvador faces a heavy mix of multilateral and domestic debts, including imminent debt repayment deadlines in the billions of dollars, such as an $800 million eurobond that matures in January.

“The domestic debt is very large, relatively short duration and needs to be rolled over frequently,” said Muci, who previously worked at the Growth Lab at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

El Salvador has been trying since early 2021 to secure a $1.3 billion loan from the IMF — an effort that appears to have soured over Bukele’s refusal to heed the organization’s advice to ditch bitcoin as legal tender.

Rating agencies, including Fitch, have knocked down El Salvador’s credit score, citing the uncertainty of the country’s financial future given the adoption of bitcoin as legal tender. That means that it’s now even more expensive for Bukele to borrow much-needed cash.

Beyond the fact that global lenders don’t want to throw money at a country that is spending millions in tax dollars on a cryptocurrency whose price is prone to extreme volatility, the IMF’s largest shareholder, the U.S., is targeting Salvadoran officials as part of wider international sanctions against “corrupt actors.”

The president’s efforts to consolidate power have also driven up this risk premium for global lenders.

Bukele’s New Ideas party has control over the country’s Legislative Assembly. In 2021, the new assembly came under fire after it ousted the attorney general and top judges. The move prompted the U.S. Agency for International Development to pull aid from El Salvador’s national police and a public information institute and reroute the funds to civil society groups.

Additionally, El Salvador can’t print cash to shore up its finances. El Salvador ditched its local currency, the colon, in favor of the U.S. dollar. Only the Federal Reserve can print more dollars. Meanwhile, its other national currency, bitcoin, is revered for the fact that it, too, is impossible to mint out of thin air.

“One of the big issues has been the fact that the bitcoin gimmick has distracted from the fiscal and economic challenges of the country and made it more difficult for the country to access IFI lending and preferential terms,” Ziemba said.

Ziemba added that there have been some swaps with major crypto firms that allowed the country to raise cash to pay off the debt due this year, and perhaps early next year, but the long-term debt sustainability remains a challenge.

“They’ve spooked the bejesus out of financial markets and the IMF,” said Muci, who tells CNBC that nobody wants to lend money to Bukele unless it’s at “eye-gouging rates” of 20% to 25%.

“The country is sleepwalking into a debt default,” Muci said.

El Salvador is using volcano power to mine bitcoin

Tourism and presidential popularity solid

On the day the Bitcoin Law took effect, Bukele revealed that the country had begun to add bitcoin to government coffers. Since then, the price of the cryptocurrency has plunged more than 60%, stoked by rising interest rates and failed projects and bankruptcies in the industry.

The government has an unrealized paper loss on bitcoin of around $60 million. None of these losses are locked in until the country exits its bitcoin position.

In aggregate, the entire experiment and all its associated costs have only set the government back around $375 million, according to estimates. That’s not nothing — especially considering the fact that El Salvador has $7.7 billion of bonds outstanding — but to an economy of $29 billion, it is comparatively small.

El Salvador’s millennial, tech-savvy president — who once touted himself as the “world’s coolest dictator” on his Twitter bio — has tethered his political fate to the country’s crypto gamble, so he has a very big incentive to make it work in the long run and to pay off the country’s debt in the interim. Bukele faces reelection for another five-year presidential term in 2024.

At least El Salvador’s big bitcoin gamble has been a win in terms of attracting bitcoin tourists.

The tourism industry is up 30% since the Bitcoin Law took effect, according to official government estimates. The country’s tourism minister also notes that 60% of tourists now come from the U.S.

The bitcoin experiment hasn’t hurt the president’s popularity either. Bukele’s approval ratings are north of 85% — thanks in large part to his tough-on-crime approach to leading. That’s no small thing to a country that was more dangerous per capita than Afghanistan five years ago.

Suter said the project has also introduced many locals to the concept of savings, noting that before the Bitcoin Law, much of the population didn’t have a way to digitally hold their money and transact among one another.

“It was all cash — and the cash that you earned that week, you typically spent it, because there wasn’t much ability to dream of growing it through investment.”

How bitcoin's mining activity could point to a bottom for the cryptocurrency

The president upped the ante in November when he announced plans to build a “Bitcoin City” next door to the Conchagua volcano in southeastern El Salvador. The bitcoin-funded city would offer significant tax relief, and geothermal energy rolling off the adjacent volcano would power bitcoin miners.

But now, Bitcoin City is on hold, as is the $1 billion bitcoin bond sale, which was initially put on ice in March because of unfavorable market conditions.

“Ultimately, El Salvador’s problems are just tangential to currency,” Muci said.

“The plane is gonna crash eventually, if they don’t change things,” he said — “if they don’t raise taxes, cut spending, start being much more disciplined, convincing markets that they’re sustainable.”

“Bitcoin doesn’t solve any of El Salvador’s important economic problems,” he added.

Bitcoin falls below $19,000 as Ethereum upgrade kicks into full gear

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The oil-rich Gulf states are better-positioned to weather the tariff storm — but crashing crude prices could spell trouble

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The oil-rich Gulf states are better-positioned to weather the tariff storm — but crashing crude prices could spell trouble

U.S. President Donald Trump with Mohammed bin Salman, crown prince of Saudi Arabia, at the start of the Group of 20 summit on 28 June 2019.

Bernd von Jutrczenka | picture alliance | Getty Images

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — The wealthy Arab Gulf states are in a better position than many other regions of the world to manage the economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, economists and regional investors say. But a shaky outlook for the price of oil could put some countries’ budgets and spending projects at risk.

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Qatar make up the Gulf Cooperation Council. Together, they comprise around $3.2 trillion in sovereign financial assets, accounting for 33% of the total sovereign assets worldwide, according to GCC Secretary-General Jasem Mohamed Albudaiwi. 

The GCC also holds approximately 32.6% of the world’s proven crude oil reserves, according to the Statistical Center of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.

That makes it both an asset for the Trump administration as well as vulnerable to its policies, as Trump has long pushed for OPEC, the oil producer alliance led by Saudi Arabia, to pump more oil to help lower oil prices and offset inflation in the U.S. 

A lower oil price, however, can significantly impact the budget deficits and spending plans for those countries, whose economies — despite diversification efforts — still rely heavily on hydrocarbon revenues.  

Beneficial relations with Trump  

How to invest as markets sink, according to Blackrock's Ben Powell

“I think we’re all going to be swept into the maelstrom over the next short period of time. That’s inevitable. But the Middle East, with the balance sheet strength that they have, with the energy support that they still have, providing funding on a near ongoing basis … for me, the Middle East — maybe not today, but over time — should be a relative winner within that mix” when it comes to emerging markets, Powell said.

In considering what the firsthand impact of tariffs might be, Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, noted that the U.S. is not a major export market for the Gulf.

“The GCC should be in a relatively favourable position to withstand headwinds, especially the UAE,” she wrote in a report for the bank on Friday. 

While the region faces the blanket 10% universal tariff as well as previously imposed tariffs on all foreign steel and aluminum — products that the UAE and Bahrain both export — “we expect the direct impact to be relatively contained, as the US is not a key destination for Gulf exports, averaging just c.3.7% of the GCC’s total exports in 2024,” she said.

Threat to spending plans

Crude and copper have a lot of room to move lower, says Citi's Max Layton

Saudi Arabia needs oil at more than $90 a barrel to balance its budget, the International Monetary Fund estimates. Goldman Sachs this week lowered its oil price forecast for 2026 to $58 for Brent and $55 for U.S. benchmark WTI crude. That’s a significant move lower from its forecast just last Friday of $62 for Brent and $59 for WTI in 2026.

“A weaker global demand and greater supply adds downside risk to our Brent forecast for 2025, though we wait for more market clarity before making any changes,” ADCB’s Malik told CNBC on Monday. OPEC+ is meant to increase oil production levels again in May, and she predicts the group will pause that plan if crude prices stay where they are or fall further. 

“Our greatest concern would be a sharp and sustained oil price fall, which would require a reassessment of spending plans – government and off budget – including capex, while also potentially affecting banking sector liquidity and wider confidence,” Malik warned.

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World’s first-ever global emissions tax is on the table at crunch shipping talks

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World's first-ever global emissions tax is on the table at crunch shipping talks

Aerial view of containers for export sitting stacked at Qingdao Qianwan Container Terminal on April 5, 2025 in Qingdao, Shandong Province of China. 

Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty Images

The United Nations shipping agency is on the cusp of introducing binding regulations to phase out fossil fuel use in global shipping — with the world’s first-ever global emissions levy on the table.

The International Maritime Organization (IMO) will this week hold talks at its London headquarters to hammer out measures to reduce the climate impact of international shipping, which accounts for around 3% of global carbon emissions.

Some of the measures on the table include a global marine fuel standard and an economic element, such as a long-debated carbon levy or a carbon credit scheme.

If implemented, a robust pricing mechanism in the shipping sector would likely be considered one of the climate deals of the decade.

An ambitious carbon tax is far from a foregone conclusion, however, with observers citing concerns over sweeping U.S. tariffs, a brewing global trade war and reluctance from members firmly opposed to any kind of levy structure.

Sara Edmonson, head of global advocacy at Australian mining giant Fortescue, described the talks as “absolutely historic,” particularly given the potential for a landmark carbon levy.

“I think it would be an absolute game-changer. No other industry on a global level has made a commitment of this size and I would argue most countries haven’t made a commitment of this size,” Edmondson told CNBC via telephone.

She added, however, that “the jury is still very much out” when it comes to a global carbon price.

It’s not really a question of whether they get agreement, it’s just how ambitious it is, how effective it is and how many unhappy people there are.

John Maggs

President of the Clean Shipping Coalition

“There are also a lot of discussions around levy-like structures because obviously the word levy in very polarized countries like the U.S., like Australia and even in China, can be very challenging. But I think there are really good discussions around levy-like structures that would ultimately have an equivalent effect,” Edmondson said.

The IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) is scheduled to conclude talks on Friday.

‘A great opportunity’

Some of the biggest proponents of a global greenhouse gas emissions charge on the shipping industry include Pacific Island states, such as Fiji, the Marshall Islands and Vanuatu, and Caribbean Island states, including Barbados, Jamaica and Grenada.

Those opposed to a carbon levy, such as Brazil, China and Saudi Arabia, have raised concerns over economic competitiveness and increased inequalities.

“For countries like Vanuatu … we see the UNFCCC isn’t moving fast enough — and this is the great opportunity,” Vanuatu Minister Ralph Regenvanu said Monday.

Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Arsenio Dominguez delivers a speech at the IMO Headquarters, in London, on January 14, 2025.

Benjamin Cremel | Afp | Getty Images

The UNFCCC refers to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, a multilateral treaty that has provided the basis for international climate negotiations.

If adopted, it would be “the first industry-wide measure adopted by a multilateral UN organisation with much more teeth than we could get in the UNFCCC process,” Regenvanu said.

Delegates at the IMO agreed in 2023 to target net-zero sector emissions “by or around” 2050 and set a provision to finalize a basket of mid-term carbon reduction measures in 2025.

Calls for a ‘decisive’ economic measure

“We’re going to get something,” John Maggs, president of the Clean Shipping Coalition, a group of NGOs with observer status at the IMO, told CNBC via telephone.

“The timetable is quite clear and they are working really, really hard to stick to it. So, I think it’s not really a question of whether they get agreement, it’s just how ambitious it is, how effective it is and how many unhappy people there are,” Maggs said.

Clean Shipping Coalition’s Maggs warned that a sizable gap still exists between progressive and more conservative forces at the IMO.

“My feeling from the progressive side is that people are optimistic and confident because the case they are making is a sound one and they’ve got the technical expertise to back them up,” Maggs said.

“But, at the end of the day, China and Brazil and others aren’t just going to go, ‘OK you can have your way.’ There is going to be payment exacted in some way or other,” he added.

PORTSMOUTH, UNITED KINGDOM – OCTOBER 28: The container ship Vung Tau Express sails loaded with shipping containers close to the English coast on October 28, 2024 in Portsmouth, England.  

Matt Cardy | Getty Images News | Getty Images

The international shipping sector, which is responsible for the carriage of around 90% of global trade, is regarded as one of the hardest industries to decarbonize given the vast amounts of fossil fuels the ships burn each year.

Angie Farrag-Thibault, vice president of global transport at the Environmental Defense Fund, an environmental group, said a successful outcome at the IMO would be an ambitious global fuel standard and a “decisive” economic measure to ensure shipping pollution is significantly reduced.

“These measures, which should include a fair disbursement mechanism that uses existing climate finance structures, will encourage ship owners to cut fossil fuel use and adopt zero and near-zero fuels and technologies, while supporting climate-vulnerable regions at the speed and scale that is needed,” Farragh-Thibault said.

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The US wind industry’s 5-year outlook is now a total roller-coaster

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The US wind industry's 5-year outlook is now a total roller-coaster

The US wind industry installed just 5.2 gigawatts (GW) in 2024 – the lowest level in a decade, according to Wood Mackenzie’s new US Wind Energy Monitor report. Installations are expected to rebound in 2025, but the real concern lies in US wind’s sharply downgraded 5-year outlook. As for the reason behind that bleak forecast, we’ll give you one guess as to why, and it starts with a T.

Wood Mac reports that 3.9 GW of onshore wind came online last year, along with 1.3 GW of onshore repowers and 101 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind.

Onshore wind

The US is expected to achieve more than 160 GW of installed onshore capacity by 2025, and onshore growth is projected to bounce back from 2024 and surpass 6.3 GW this year.

“The cliff in 2023 and 2024 created by the Production Tax Credit (PTC) push in 2022 will come to an end,” said Stephen Maldonado, research analyst at Wood Mackenzie. “Despite the uncertainty created by the new administration, the massive number of orders placed in 2023 culminating in projects now under construction support the short-term forecast.”

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The pipeline for onshore has 10.8 GW currently under construction through 2027, with another 3.9 GW announced.

GE Vernova led onshore wind installations in 2024 with 56% of the market and will continue to lead in connections for the next five years. It was followed by Vestas (40%) and Siemens Gamesa (4%).

Offshore wind

Offshore wind is projected to increase in 2025 as well, with 900 MW of installed capacity, up from a disappointing 101 MW in 2024. However, several projects have been shelved in the wake of Trump’s anti-wind executive orders, which downgraded the five-year outlook by 1.8 GW.

Electrek’s Take on US wind’s 5-year outlook

According to Wood Mac, 33 GW of new onshore wind capacity will be installed through 2029, along with 6.6 GW of new offshore capacity and 5.5 GW of repowers. However, due to Trump’s anti-wind policy and economic uncertainty, this five-year outlook is 40% less than a previous total of 75.8 GW. ​Growth will happen, but it’s going to be slower.

The main reason is Trump’s flourish of his Sharpie on executive orders that include “temporary” withdrawal of offshore wind leasing areas and putting a stop to onshore wind on federal lands. Plus, firing all those federal employees will likely make permitting wind farms a slower process. (Trump just wrote more executive orders today allowing coal projects on federal lands; he won’t have federal employees to issue permits for those, either.) He’s worked to throw up obstacles for wind projects in favor of fossil fuels. He won’t stop the wind industry, but he’s managed to get some projects canceled, and he’ll make things more of a slog over the next few years.

Read more: Coal is dead and Trump’s executive order won’t revive it


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