The key storylines for Alabama-Tennessee, Penn State-Michigan and the rest of Week 7’s biggest games
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ESPN staff
Coming into the college football season, a lot of focus was put on the Week 6 slate. Jimbo Fisher against Nick Saban after an offseason of chatter and the new age of the Red River rivalry ahead of an SEC move highlighted what was supposed to be the week that made contenders and pretenders.
We were just off a week, it turns out.
Week 7 brings all the fireworks we were ready for last week as Alabama heads to Tennessee in a top-six SEC showdown that could very well be the conference championship game, while Kentucky and Mississippi State try to keep up with the current front-runners in another top-25 matchup. The Big Ten has a top-10 battle of its own this week with Penn State traveling to Michigan in what could be a College Football Playoff-defining game.
No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 6 Tennessee Volunteers (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS)
Set aside the unknown of Bryce Young‘s health and how it will impact Alabama’s offense on Saturday afternoon. We saw against Texas A&M last weekend that Young’s backup, Jalen Milroe, might not be ready to go into Tennessee and come away with a victory.
Instead, look to the battle of Tennessee’s offense vs. Alabama’s defense as the key factor in this clash of unbeaten teams.
The Vols’ offense is first among FBS teams in score rate, yards per game and points per game.
“They’re probably one of the most explosive offenses, if not the most explosive offense, in the country,” Saban said.
But the Crimson Tide’s defense is no slouch. It ranks in the top 10 in opposing score rate, yards per game and points per game.
Something has to give. And that something will likely be determined by Alabama’s ability to put pressure on Tennessee star quarterback Hendon Hooker, who has four talented receivers at his disposal with Jalin Hyatt, Bru McCoy, Cedric Tillman and Ramel Keyton — all of whom have more than 200 yards receiving this season.
In the past, Alabama has struggled against teams that go up-tempo, and Tennessee is the fifth-quickest team in the country in terms of time of possession per play (21.3 seconds). The Vols have allowed the second-lowest pressure rate in the country (16.1%), which looks at any time the quarterback is sacked, under duress or hit.
In other words: Getting a hand on Hooker won’t be easy.
But Alabama has generated the sixth-highest pressure rate in the country (37.0%) for a reason. Just look at the Texas A&M game, in which the Tide debuted their so-called “Cheetah package” that featured speedy edge rushers Will Anderson Jr., Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell on the field at the same time. Saban said simply, “It was effective.” No kidding. The defense racked up 28 total pressures against the Aggies. Anderson had a season-high 12 on his own.
“Between their personnel being good enough to win a lot of one-on-one matchups and then all their pressures and all their games up front, you gotta do a really good job,” Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said of his offensive line. “You have to win the one-on-one matchups and then you gotta do a great job working together as all five guys.” — Alex Scarborough
No. 10 Penn State Nittany Lions at No. 5 Michigan Wolverines (Saturday, noon ET, Fox)
The last time Michigan and Penn State met at Michigan Stadium, they played in a virtually empty building because of COVID-19 restrictions. Penn State was 0-5 for the first time in team history. Michigan wasn’t much better at 2-3.
The teams are much better, and the stakes are much higher Saturday. Both teams are undefeated and in the top 10. Saturday’s winner will be labeled the primary challenger to Big Ten favorite Ohio State, and a bona fide College Football Playoff candidate. Michigan is defending its league title, but Penn State hasn’t been in this position since an 8-0 start in 2019.
“We know that these types of games every year are critical,” Penn State coach James Franklin said.
Penn State’s fortunes could hinge on an emerging run game and a pressure-heavy defense under first-year coordinator Manny Diaz. A Lions offense that hasn’t averaged more than 200 rush yards per game since 2018 has averaged 216.3 rush yards over the past four games with 14 touchdowns. Freshmen Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton are combining to average 153.2 rush yards per game.
They face a Michigan defense that, despite the NFL draft losses of star pass-rushers Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo, ranks seventh nationally in rush yards allowed per game (81.7) and sixth in yards per rush (2.62). Penn State’s run game could take some pressure off senior quarterback Sean Clifford, whose numbers to date mirror those of past seasons.
“It’s about execution, but it’s also about keeping people on their toes,” Franklin said. “If you can run in predictable passing situations and be efficient and effective, that’s what you want to do, and vice versa.”
Michigan also wants to broaden its offense as sophomore quarterback J.J. McCarthy makes his sixth career start and first against a ranked opponent. McCarthy’s athletic ability and overall skill set give Michigan a chance to open up the offense in ways it truly hasn’t under coach Jim Harbaugh. But McCarthy has operated a mostly conservative scheme, showing accuracy on high-percentage routes while struggling on deeper ones.
McCarthy’s decision-making and execution will be tested by Diaz’s defense, which has pressured quarterbacks 85 times on dropbacks, more than all but five FBS teams.
“When you look at what we have as a group and who we’re coached by, and you look at what we’re doing on the field, it’s just not matching up with our potential and where we should be, and where we’re going to be,” McCarthy said. “We should not be getting stopped offensively.” — Adam Rittenberg
No. 4 Clemson Tigers at Florida State Seminoles (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN app)
The Clemson-Florida State matchup used to be the can’t-miss game in the ACC, but it has turned into a relative afterthought over the past five years.
Perhaps the Seminoles can change that Saturday.
Though it has lost its past two games, Florida State (4-2) is in position to challenge the No. 4 Tigers (6-0) based on the improvements the team has made across the board. Much of that starts on offense, where Florida State has one of the best rushing attacks in the country.
Florida State has 32 explosive run plays this year on offense, 12th most in FBS and tops in the ACC. Clemson, on the other hand, has allowed just four explosive run plays — best in the nation. What’s more, Clemson is expected to have its top five defensive linemen — Bryan Bresee, Tyler Davis, Xavier Thomas, K.J. Henry and Myles Murphy — available to play for the first time this season on Saturday.
On the other side, the status of Florida State leading rusher Treshaun Ward remains unclear after he sustained an injury last week against NC State and was seen with a sling on his arm on the sideline. Florida State coach Mike Norvell said the injury wouldn’t require surgery but has not given a timetable for his return. If Ward cannot play, Trey Benson and Lawrance Toafili will carry the load.
That matchup is one of the most intriguing to watch in this game — especially if Florida State has any shot at breaking a six-game losing streak to the Tigers. The results have been ugly over that stretch, though the Seminoles had their opportunities in a 30-20 loss last year, a game in which they led 20-17 midway through the fourth quarter.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said during his news conference this week he “wanted to vomit” watching the game tape from last year, then noted how much better the Tigers are this year — most especially with an improved DJ Uiagalelei and better offensive line.
“Grading our tape this year versus last year is night and day in every area,” Swinney said.
Clemson is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Atlantic Division, while Florida State is just hoping to avoid a third straight loss after starting the season 4-0. Of course, this is also the third straight AP-ranked opponent the Seminoles will face, the only team in the ACC scheduled to play Wake Forest, NC State and Clemson in a row.
“I love this team. I love the mindset of what they bring,” Norvell said. “Nobody wants to have a disappointing outcome in any game or in any play, but how you choose to respond to things is really what’s indicative of the character that you have and the identity of what you are going to put out. These guys continue to work, they continue to believe. We’ve got to have a great week of prep to capitalize on what’s coming here Saturday night.” — Andrea Adelson
No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 22 Kentucky Wildcats (Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network/ESPN app)
The two “Wills” were always going to dominate the buildup to this football game — Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers and Kentucky quarterback Will Levis.
But there’s a bit of a twist.
Levis has generated much of the buzz this season from pro scouts and is widely regarded as one of the top quarterback prospects in the 2023 NFL draft. He’s also not healthy and is battling a turf toe injury that kept him out of the South Carolina game a week ago, a 24-14 home loss that saw the Wildcats average just 4.7 yards per play and go 3-of-12 on third down with redshirt freshman Kaiya Sheron making his first career start at quarterback.
The Wildcats (4-2) are hopeful that Levis can return for this game, although it could still be a game-time decision. Whoever is at quarterback, the Wildcats have to find a way to protect him better if they’re going to avoid their third straight loss. They’ve allowed 25 sacks in six games, which ranks them 129th nationally out of 131 teams in sacks allowed. Zach Arnett’s 3-3-5 defense at Mississippi State has feasted on forcing turnovers (12 in six games) and has allowed just 16 touchdowns in six games. Two of those TDs came in the fourth quarter of blowouts.
The Bulldogs (5-1) have been a more balanced team all the way around this season, be it running the ball more consistently on offense or playing the kind of defense that’s going to keep them in every game.
But the centerpiece remains Rogers, who is the only quarterback in the country with more than 2,000 passing yards (2,110) and more than 20 passing touchdowns (22). If he ever was truly underrated, he’s not now. The 6-2, 210-pound junior, who still has two years of eligibility remaining, has established himself as one of the most productive quarterbacks in college football. He passed Georgia‘s Aaron Murray last week as the SEC’s all-time completions leader. Rogers did it in only 28 games. Murray set the mark over a span of 52 games.
“He’s a guy that elevates even the other sides of the ball,” Mississippi State coach Mike Leach said of his quarterback.
Rogers has been masterful at spreading the ball around this season. Six different Mississippi State receivers have caught at least 20 passes. No other SEC school has more than three (Georgia).
Kentucky has had trouble scoring against SEC foes. The Wildcats have yet to score more than 19 points on offense in their first three conference games, which becomes even more of a problem depending on Levis’ health.
On the flip side, few teams in college football have been better at scoring in the red zone than Mississippi State, which leads the nation with 19 touchdowns in 21 trips inside the opponent’s 20-yard line.
The last thing the Wildcats want is to get into a scoring match with the Bulldogs, who are 12-0 under Leach when they score at least 30 points. — Chris Low
No. 15 NC State Wolfpack at No. 18 Syracuse Orange (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network/ESPN app)
When NC State hosted Syracuse a year ago, the defensive game plan for QB Garrett Shrader was simple enough: Make him throw the ball.
Shrader had proved an exceptional runner in 2021, and indeed, he carried 17 times for 70 yards and a score in last year’s 41-17 loss to the Wolfpack. But throwing the ball was misery. Shrader completed just 8 of 20 throws for a measly 63 yards, plus an interception for good measure. The passing game was Syracuse’s kryptonite. For the year, Shrader completed just 52.6% of his throws.
Enter Robert Anae. The new offensive coordinator for the Orange has refined the passing game and worked wonders.
“Everyone thinks Syracuse can just run the ball, and that’s it,” receiver Oronde Gadsden II said. “We wanted to develop a passing game so that when they’re running Cover 1, Cover Zero, we’ve got some dudes out there that can beat man and get open and score touchdowns.”
Syracuse can certainly run the ball. Shrader’s mobility is a weapon, but so, too, is tailback Sean Tucker, who was an All-American last season. But now there’s a genuine alternative when teams stack the box, and Shrader has proved he can find receivers downfield.
So far this season, he’s completing 71% of his throws with 10 passing TDs and just one pick. He trails only North Carolina‘s Drake Maye in passer rating among ACC QBs.
“Last year, I thought he struggled throwing the football,” NC State coach Dave Doeren said. “Now he has a 70% completion rate and is playing really well.”
Shrader is one of just four QBs in the country with 1,200 passing yards, 200 rushing yards, 10 passing touchdowns and five rushing. Add in a completion percentage of more than 70%, and the only other QBs to match those marks through five games in the playoff era are Brock Purdy, Justin Fields and Jalen Hurts.
Doeren said the priority remains containing Shrader in the pocket — something NC State struggled to do against another mobile QB, Florida State’s Jordan Travis, just last week. Travis ran for 108 yards in the 19-17 NC State win, a week after Clemson’s DJ Uiagalelei ran for 70 against the Wolfpack. NC State has allowed just 745 rushing yards (not counting sacks) this season, which ranks among the best marks in the ACC. But 358 of those yards (48%) have come from QBs. And the fact that the Wolfpack must now respect Syracuse’s passing game opens up even more avenues to run.
“It’s 11-man football in the run game, and sometimes the run is just created in a pass where a guy jumps back and takes off,” Doeren said. “We have to do a great job with their quarterback and not allowing him to get out.” — David Hale
No. 7 USC Trojans at No. 20 Utah Utes (Saturday, 8 p.m. ET, Fox)
When asked earlier this week what it would take to duplicate USC’s undefeated first half over the next six games, coach Lincoln Riley said with a smile: “Just six?” alluding to wanting to play for not just the conference title but perhaps a playoff game, too. “That’ll get quoted, oh boy. Everybody calm down.”
The unprecedented run to an undefeated season, though, gets tougher for the Trojans this week. Few places have given USC as much trouble as traveling to Salt Lake City in the past decade. Before the Trojans beat the Utes in a fan-less Rice-Eccles Stadium during the COVID-shortened season in 2020, USC hadn’t won there since 2012.
This weekend’s matchup lost some of its luster after UCLA beat Utah at the Rose Bowl, but the importance of this game — for both teams — has not been diminished.
Though Utah has not met preseason expectations, Kyle Whittingham’s team is stronger at home, and the expectation is that the Utes will bounce back from Saturday’s loss, especially after an uncharacteristic two-turnover day from quarterback Cameron Rising.
Earlier this week, Riley waxed poetic about Rising, whom he recruited out of high school. And by all accounts, Rising might be the best quarterback USC’s turnover-happy defense has faced so far.
For the Utes, dropping a third game (second in conference) would mean that the road back to the Pac-12 championship would require not just winning out, but hoping one of the L.A. teams and Oregon falter. For the Trojans, a win would not only keep their undefeated record intact heading into an easier stretch (and a bye week), but it would also create a simple path toward the title game: Beat UCLA.
“This is when it gets the most fun,” Riley said. “You put yourself in a great position, now it’s time to go accelerate and be our best.” — Paolo Uggetti
MONTREAL — Alex Ovechkin padded his NHL goals record and moved up a couple other big lists in the Washington Capitals‘ 8-4 romp over the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday night.
Ovechkin had his 33rd career hat trick to tie Brett Hull for fourth in NHL history and added an assist as he moved past Joe Sakic into 10th on the points list.
Ovechkin has 10 goals in 21 games this season to push his NHL-record to 907. The 40-year-old Russian has 1,643 points, two more than Sakic.
“I just try to do my job and try to enjoy the moment and enjoy the time,” Ovechkin said.
Ovechkin opened the scoring on a power play a minute into the first period, firing a wrist shot past goalie Sam Montembeault off a faceoff. Ovechkin assisted on Ethen Frank‘s goal two minutes into the second that gave the Capitals the lead for good at 2-1.
The Washington star scored twice late in the third period, the first on a rush with 4:57 to go and the second into an empty net from his own zone with 2:04 remaining. He has scored in four straight games and has seven goals in his last six games.
“After everything he’s done we’re still amazed at what he can do, and I’m sure he’s not close to slowing down,” Frank said of Ovechkin.
Ovechkin is the second player in NHL history with six goals in a four-game span at age 40 or older, according to ESPN Research.
Coming off a 7-4 home victory over Edmonton on Wednesday night, Washington has won three in a row to improve to 11-8-2. It was the Capitals’ lone road game in an eight-game span.
Montreal has lost five straight and seven of eight.
Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.
It’s time for Texas to pack up.
The Longhorns plummeted to No. 17 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s third of six rankings, indicating that even if they run the table and punctuate their résumé with a win against No. 3 Texas A&M, they might still be locked out.
Notre Dame, though, should buy some furniture and move in. At No. 9 — ahead of No. 10 Alabama — the selection committee continued to reward the two-loss Irish for how they’re playing — not who they’re beating. No. 10 Alabama has four wins against CFP top-25 opponents, including the committee’s No. 4 team Georgia, No. 14 Vanderbilt, No. 20 Tennessee and No. 22 Mizzou, which snuck back into the ranking this week. Notre Dame’s only win against a CFP-ranked team is against No. 15 USC.
While the changes at the top were minimal, No. 24 Tulane is now the flavor of the week in the Group of 5 race after Navy knocked South Florida out of the same spot.
With only three Saturdays remaining before Selection Day, there are still games that can change the picture entirely, which leaves hope for some teams hovering on the bubble (here’s lookin’ at you, Miami).
The Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on this week’s committee ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Alabama. The loss to Oklahoma didn’t knock the Tide out of the committee’s top 12, but it put No. 10 Alabama in must-win mode and will keep them ranked behind the Sooners. The Tide have only one SEC loss and still have the best chance of any team to reach the conference championship game (71.6%), according to ESPN Analytics.
First team out: Vanderbilt. No. 14 Vandy jumped ahead of the three-loss Longhorns despite the head-to-head loss to Texas, but remains a long shot for the field as an at-large bid. The Commodores would need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee — plus hope there is some chaos above them. Maybe — maybe — if Bama loses to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, Miami loses to Pitt, and BYU loses to Cincinnati — it can open the door, but clearly multiple things need to work in their favor.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. This could change quickly if Oregon loses at home to USC on Saturday, as there are questions in the room about the Ducks’ No. 31 schedule strength. The Nov. 8 win at Iowa was impressive, but the Hawkeyes are now a four-loss team and dropped out of the top 25. The Ducks also have a double-digit home loss to Indiana, which is why their chances of reaching the Big Ten title game are only 12%.
First team out: USC. Like Oregon, USC just boosted its résumé with a gritty, close win against a talented Iowa team that fell out of the ranking with its fourth loss. The Trojans’ two losses were by a total of 12 points to Illinois and Notre Dame — and were both on the road. USC has a critical win against No. 18 Michigan, which boosts its status and gives the Trojans a tiebreaker in the Big Ten standings. If USC can win at Oregon (and avoid an embarrassing home loss to UCLA), the Trojans can unseat the Ducks as the Big Ten’s last team in. They would likely finish behind Notre Dame, though, because of the head-to-head result.
Still in the mix: Michigan. The difference between No. 18 Michigan and No. 17 Texas is that the Wolverines are still mathematically eligible to reach the Big Ten title game with a 3.6% chance, according to ESPN Analytics. The Wolverines avoided elimination Saturday with a narrow 24-22 win at Northwestern. They still have a chance to beat the committee’s No. 1 team in rival Ohio State, and nobody in the country would have a better win if that happens. If Michigan can run the table, it would have one of the best two-loss résumés in the country but would be ranked behind USC unless the Trojans lose again. If USC loses to Oregon, and Oregon loses to Washington — and Michigan runs the table — the Wolverines will have a strong case to be the Big Ten’s third team in. The Week 2 loss to Oklahoma looks better now that the Sooners are a top-10 team.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. At No. 5, the Red Raiders are within arm’s reach of a first-round bye and have the best chance of winning the Big 12 (69.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech has a bye this week but can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game if both Cincinnati and Arizona State lose. The Oct. 18 loss to Arizona State won’t keep Texas Tech out of the CFP if it finishes as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up, given how highly the committee has regarded Texas Tech to this point. The chances of that became even better after Arizona State appeared in the ranking at No. 25, easing some of the pain of that loss. The Red Raiders end the regular season at 4-7 West Virginia.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars put it all together during Saturday’s dominant win against TCU, but they would be excluded from the playoff today in order to make room for one of the five highest ranked conference champions. BYU still has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (80.2%) behind Texas Tech (97.5%). They can clinch a spot with a win Saturday against Cincinnati and losses by both Arizona State and Houston. If BYU wins the league, it’s a CFP lock. If BYU loses, though, it would depend on how close the game is. The selection committee is unlikely to reward BYU with an at-large bid if it plays as poorly as it did against Texas Tech during the regular season.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Cincinnati, Utah. According to ESPN Analytics, Utah still has an 11.9% chance to reach the Big 12 championship, followed by ASU (8.4%) and Cincinnati (1.9%).
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. The No. 13 Canes are listed here because they are the selection committee’s highest-ranked ACC team and are still mathematically eligible to reach the conference championship game. Until the participants of that game are clear, the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team will continue to appear here. With six teams still in contention, the most fair representative is the committee’s. Still, Miami’s best chance at reaching the CFP right now is through an at-large bid because the Canes only have a 7.1% chance to reach the ACC title game. To get that at-large bid, Miami still needs to beat both Virginia Tech and Pitt and hope for losses above it to move into the top 10. The ACC champion will earn the No. 11 seed and the Group of 5 champion will have the No. 12 seed, so Miami needs to jump to No. 10 by Selection Day. It’s not inconceivable if Alabama loses to Auburn, BYU loses to Cincinnati and Utah loses to either K-State or at Kansas. It will take more than one of those things — if not all three. The question will be if the committee ever revisits Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame in the season opener. The Canes would likely have to creep closer to the Irish in their ranking for them to be comparable enough to use that tiebreaker. Georgia Tech can clinch a spot in the game with a win against Pitt on Saturday, and Virginia can clinch with losses by Duke, Pitt and SMU.
First team out: Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets beat a 1-10 Boston College team by two points in spite of themselves and are a win away from a guaranteed appearance in the ACC championship game. They’ve also got a chance to earn a top-5 win in the regular-season finale against Georgia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t beat Georgia, it would need to win the ACC to reach the playoff because a three-loss ACC runner-up is out.
Still in the mix: Duke, Pitt, SMU, Virginia. Virginia has the best chance to reach the ACC title game (77.7%); SMU is third (38%), followed by Duke (11%), Miami and Pitt (7%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. At No. 9 and ahead of two-loss Alabama, Notre Dame is winning the eye test, because it is ranked behind Alabama in both Strength of Record and Strength of Schedule. Alabama has the No. 4 schedule in the country, while the Irish are No. 29. Notre Dame’s best wins are against USC, Navy and Pitt, with only No. 15 USC ranked this week. As long as the Irish end the season with wins against Syracuse and Stanford, their place in the playoff should be secure.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. The Green Wave have decent wins against Northwestern, Duke and Memphis, and the best combination of eye test and résumé of the current contenders. Tulane’s No. 71 schedule strength is better than James Madison (No. 119), North Texas (No. 127) and Navy (No. 74). Tulane and North Texas are the most likely teams to play for the American Conference championship, but North Texas has the best chance to win the league (61.4%), according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: James Madison, Navy, North Texas. Of these teams, JMU has the best strength of record (No. 24) and game control (No. 40) ranks, but the worst strength of schedule (No. 119). Navy has the best win — against South Florida — and the best loss (to Notre Dame), but lost to North Texas.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s third ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Oregon winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
With two weeks left in the regular season, what was once a vague picture of the College Football Playoff is finally coming into view.
Ohio State and Indiana look like sure things from the Big Ten. Georgia, Texas A&M and Ole Miss have all but punched their playoff tickets. Notre Dame and Texas Tech feel good about their odds, but all of that depends on something critical happening these last two weeks that can be boiled down to two simple words: avoid chaos.
Ah, but chaos is certainly possible.
Is Miami a contender? Can the Canes slip into the ACC title game mix?
Is Texas Tech guaranteed a bid? What happens if BYU keeps its stellar season going?
The ACC is ground zero for chaos and everyone from 9-1 Georgia Tech to 5-5 Duke still has a shot at winning the conference.
In the Big Ten, Oregon and USC will face off in what might be a de facto play-in game for the playoff.
And remember last week when Oklahoma earned a statement win against Alabama that appeared to shore up a playoff spot for the Sooners? Well, that dance card is only good as long as Oklahoma beats Missouri this week.
It’s late November, with just enough season behind us to feel as if we’ve got a real understanding of what’s ahead and just enough left on the docket to upend the whole picture and inject a fresh dose of head-spinning into the mix. — David Hale
Jump to:
Breakout players | BYU-Cincinnati
What’s at stake? | Quotes of the week
Top five breakout players this season
Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss: One of the great plot twists of this college football season has been a little-known transfer from Division II Ferris State stepping in and leading the Rebels to a 10-1 record. Lane Kiffin’s new dual-threat playmaker won a D-II national title last season and has shown no fear in moving up to SEC ball, ranking seventh nationally with 3,101 total yards, 20 total touchdowns and only four turnovers since taking over for injured starter Austin Simmons. The No. 6 Rebels struck gold with Chambliss as well as 1,110-yard rusher Kewan Lacy, a Missouri transfer, in their efforts to reload on offense and get into the CFP.
Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State: Reese entered this season with only five career starts over two seasons with the Buckeyes, eager to finally become a full-time starter for the defending national champions. The 6-foot-4, 243-pound junior is quickly playing his way into projected top-10 draft pick status as one of the most versatile defensive playmakers under first-year coordinator Matt Patricia. Reese has produced a team-high 58 tackles with 18 pressures, 10 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks as a fast, powerful off-ball linebacker who’s just as gifted at rushing off the edge for the No. 1 scoring defense in FBS.
David Bailey, OLB, Texas Tech: Bailey didn’t earn All-ACC honors last season at Stanford but was highly coveted in the transfer portal by the Red Raiders as an impact pass rusher with big-time potential. Bailey has been worth every penny, leading the country with 12.5 sacks and 61 pressures through 11 games, while playing alongside Romello Height and Lee Hunter on one of the top defensive lines in the sport. Bailey is performing like a first-round talent for a No. 5-ranked Texas Tech squad determined to win the program’s first Big 12 championship.
Cashius Howell, DE, Texas A&M: The former Bowling Green transfer had a good debut season with the Aggies in 2024, but Howell has totally raised his game in his second year in the SEC. The 6-2, 248-pound senior has been a consistently elite pass rusher for the undefeated Aggies with 11.5 sacks and 37 pressures, and could end up being a first-round pick next spring.
Ahmad Hardy, RB, Missouri: Hardy exceled during his freshman season at UL Monroe and continues to be one of the great transfer portal gets for the Tigers. He’s leading the country with 1,346 rushing yards and 15 TDs, and has forced 72 missed tackles, according to ESPN Research. Hardy just had another career-best day Saturday with a 300-yard effort against Mississippi State after already rushing for 250 yards against Louisiana, plus he has five 100-yard performances this season. — Max Olson
How could BYU-Cincinnati affect the Big 12 title race?
Texas Tech and BYU, the Big 12’s remaining one-loss teams, appear to be on course to meet again in the championship game. For them, it’s simple: win and you’re in. But as BYU learned last season when it was in the same spot through 10 games, simple doesn’t mean easy.
If the Cougars win at Cincinnati on Saturday, it would eliminate the Bearcats. Then BYU would be, at minimum, a win against UCF away from the title game. But the Cougars could also clinch a spot this weekend with two scenarios: 1) A win plus losses by Arizona State (at Colorado) and Houston (vs. TCU); or 2) A win and an Arizona State loss, plus a Utah win (Kansas State).
If BYU loses to Cincinnati, then all bets are off. Utah, Houston, Arizona State and Cincinnati are all mathematically alive. Which means that all over them can still cling to CFP hopes, as far-fetched as they might be. This is one of the obvious benefits of the playoff format. It keeps more teams relevant later in the season and ensures meaningful games across the board into the final weeks. — Kyle Bonagura
What’s at stake in each matchup?
USC-Oregon: To put it bluntly: a spot in the CFP. That’s what’s at stake in Eugene this week as the college football world sets its eyes on the one marquee matchup this week.
USC has only one Big Ten loss and should it beat the Ducks, it would qualify for not only its best win of the season but one of the best wins in the sport this year. The Trojans have the offense to keep up with the Ducks; the question is, what USC defense will show up Saturday? That will be the key to pulling off the upset and putting Lincoln Riley’s team in the driver’s seat for a CFP spot.
One-loss Oregon might have some more breathing room if it loses to USC, but it’s not a guarantee the Ducks will get in with two losses. At that point, the Ducks’ best win would be at Iowa (currently unranked) and would have to rank behind at least USC (and Michigan if it beats Ohio State) making their entry back into the field a tight one, should it happen.
Plus, not to mention the fact that Oregon finishes with a tricky game at Washington — a team that has been up-and-down this season but has plenty of talent and motivation to play spoiler against its rival. — Paolo Uggetti
Pitt-Georgia Tech: A week ago, Pitt coach Pat Narduzzi colorfully made the point that his team could give up 100 points to Notre Dame, but it wouldn’t change the fact that these next two games, starting with Georgia Tech, will define the Panthers’ postseason fate. Well, Pitt didn’t surrender 100, but Notre Dame did win easily, putting an even bigger spotlight on the Panthers’ need to win out if they want any hope of capitalizing on a wide-open ACC.
For Georgia Tech, the stakes are even clearer. This is the Yellow Jackets’ final ACC game of the season. Win, and they’re guaranteed a spot in Charlotte for the ACC championship. Lose and all bets are off. Tech’s defense has been a train wreck the past two games, and getting right against Pitt is essential to keep a magical season going a little longer. — Hale
SMU-Louisville: While much of the attention in the ACC has focused on Miami, Virginia and Georgia Tech, SMU still has a shot to make it to the ACC championship game for the second straight season. That is the biggest thing on the line Saturday. With only one conference loss, SMU sits in a four-way tie atop the ACC headed into the weekend. The easiest path to Charlotte is this one: SMU has to win out, and Pitt has to beat Georgia Tech on Saturday. There is another clinching scenario: SMU wins out, and Virginia Tech upsets Virginia next week.
Though the Mustangs do not control their destiny, the fact they are in the mix to play for a conference championship again speaks to the job coach Rhett Lashlee has done since SMU made the move to the ACC in 2024. SMU is not a one-trick pony (see what we did there), but is building a program meant to contend year after year.
“It is a little bit different than last year because we were in control of everything,” Lashlee said. “This year, it’s almost like a playoff scenario already. Nobody’s talking about us, and I’m totally cool with that.” — Andrea Adelson
Quotes of the week
“Brent Key, a great football coach who’s done an outstanding job,” Pitt’s Pat Narduzzi said of Georgia Tech’s fourth-year head coach. “They might as well just announce him as ACC Coach of the Year. He’s done an incredible job. Just give it to him early.”
“I think for us, these are all the same people that thought we were going to suck,” USC coach Lincoln Riley said on the 8-2 Trojans’ Week 13 appearance on College GameDay. “This is all the same people, you know, we were going to do this and USC was this and that. And so for us to pay attention to them now would be a little bit counterproductive. We haven’t forgotten that.”
Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin on if he expects to be coaching in the Nov. 29 Egg Bowl: “Do you know something that I don’t know? Do I expect to coach next week? Why would I not expect to coach next week? I mean, I expected to coach against Florida, too. So I don’t even understand the question about how I would not expect to coach next week. Why would I [not] be at work?”
“I’ve had no discussions, not with my agent, not with the university, not with any other school, not with any NFL team, about ever going anywhere else,” said Texas’ Steve Sarkisian, who knocked down rumors around a potential departure this week. “I came here to win championships.”
Colorado’s Deion Sanders appealed for more time with the Buffaloes this week: “You’ve got the right man [for the job]. I promise you, you do. And I’m going to prove that to you. Just give me an opportunity and a little more time, and I’m going to prove that to you.”
“Does it look, feel, smell and operate like a big-time program?” James Franklin said of his plans for Virginia Tech in his introductory news conference with the Hokies. “All those things need to be in place. … I think the previous coaches here were in some challenging situations. That’s the truth of it. There’s some things that we’re going to have to look at, and it’s not just James Franklin. It’s the marketing office, the ticketing office. Everybody’s got to take some time and look in the mirror and say, ‘Are we operating like a big-time program?'”
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