What measures could the West take if there was a nuclear strike and what would it mean for Putin?
Speculation over whether or not Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons has been rife and the consequences could be disastrous for the West and the Russian president
With Russia’s invasion stalling and the Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge have both contributed to increased concern Putin could escalate from conventional weapons to a tactical nuclear strike.
The US President Joe Biden said last week that the world was the closest it had been to “Armageddon” at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis, after more sabre rattling from the Kremlin.
NATO says that such a move would probably lead to a “physical response” from Ukraine, her allies and even NATO itself.
It said any use of nuclear weapons would have “unprecedented consequences” and that Moscow was using its nuclear threats mainly to deter NATO and other countries from intervening directly in Ukraine.
What measures could the West take if Putin goes nuclear?
Former Ukrainian defence minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, has said that NATO has several options should Putin make a “terrible” decision.
Writing in Foreign Affairs he said: “It might not even need a land operation, the Western coalition could credibly tell the Kremlin that it would hit Russian capabilities with direct missile strikes and airstrikes, destroying its military facilities and disabling its Black Sea fleet.
“It could threaten to cut all its communications with electronic warfare and arrange a cyber-blackout against the entire Russian military.”
He added that “breaking the nuclear taboo” could also provoke repercussions from China and India, which would be another blow to the Kremlin.
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General David Petraeus says if Vladimir Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in the battlefield, that will put Russia in a worse position.
Is the West doing anything to deter a nuclear attack?
Professor Michael Clarke, former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, said the Kremlin had already been warned about the consequences of escalation.
He said: “When the tactical nuclear weapon threats were raised a few weeks ago, the US and three or four NATO members personally contacted their counterparts in Russia and in the Russian general staff to say ‘don’t even think about it’.
“They won’t tell us what they said and nor should they because there has got to be some uncertainty about this in order to maintain a deterrent but what they seem to have said is first of all ‘we will not be passive’.
“Second, we won’t go nuclear, but we will go conventional, and we have the conventional power to hit all of your nuclear infrastructure and facilities. If we even think that you’re going nuclear, if we see the preparations start – we might attack you’.
“That seems to have been the message.”
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Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told Sky News that NATO will carry out annual nuclear exercises to show readiness.
Should the West be doing more now?
Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has said Russia’s latest missile attacks in Ukraine were “a sad reminder that the most horrific pages of this ugly war are still ahead of us”.
The “Kremlin’s response is becoming ever more erratic disproportionate and destructive,” he said.
Discussing Russia’s reaction to the blast on Kerch Bridge – a key route from Russia to Crimea – Mr Gabuev said this showed Russia “still has a vast toolkit for escalation”.
He said: “Given the high stakes and emotions, the window for diplomacy is likely to open at the most dramatic moment: for example, when Putin starts to unpack his nuclear toolkit, which will be visible to NATO and involve a lot of signalling by Moscow.
“Only then might the Ukrainian and western publics be convinced there is an urgent need to negotiate.”
He added that negotiations would have to involve President Biden “since the Kremlin considers him the only real head of the opposing coalition” and the sooner they started, the better.
What do the Ukrainian people think?
A nuclear attack wouldn’t change anything about the Ukrainian people’s resolve to fight, a Ukrainian MP has claimed.
The Ukrainian MP Yelyzaveta Yasko told Kay Burley: “Putin doesn’t have any logic any more. It’s not possible to justify Putin any more.
“We understand that he’s in his final battle of his life where he wants to prove to all the world that he can do whatever he wants, including taking land, killing thousands of people, destroying infrastructure, and we understand that nuclear threat and a strike is very possible, but it’s not going to change a lot on the scene of Ukraine.
“Of course, it’s a disaster. It’s catastrophic for me. It’s a big tragedy to see thousands of people being killed, wounded, destroyed lives.
“But it’s not going to change the rule of Ukrainian people to restore justice and to restore our territorial sovereignty.”
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Why the West should stop sounding so worried about a nuclear attack
Ian Bond, from the Centre for European Reform, says the West needs to stop being – and sounding – afraid of a nuclear attack.
He told the Doomsday Watch podcast: “Nothing is as provocative to Putin as weakness, so the more the West says ‘We are afraid that Russia might use nuclear weapons’, the more likely that Putin is to continue making the threat of using nuclear weapons – and perhaps even use one or two to demonstrate he really means it.”
Bond says the message to Russia, which could be delivered privately, should be: “Please understand that if you go nuclear, we will regard the gloves as being off.”
While accepting that no one could “absolutely rule out” Russia using nuclear weapons, he added: “We should stop frightening ourselves with the Bogeyman that if the Ukrainians drive the Russians out, the Russians are going to go nuclear, I just don’t buy that.”
An Israeli hostage said “I miss my freedom” in a video released by the terror group Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
Alexander Troufanov was among the dozens of people taken prisoner by militants during the 7 October attacks last year.
And while many hostages have since been released or liberated – or found dead – Mr Troufanov’s family are still hoping for his safe return.
“I miss my family, I miss my friends, I miss my life, I miss my freedom,” he says in the video, released by the militant group on Wednesday. His family have authorised its use by media organisations.
“I miss so many things. I want to return home safe and sound.”
His mother, Lena, said she was relieved to see her son alive but was “very worried to hear what he is saying”.
“I urge that every effort be made to secure his immediate release and that of all other hostages. They have no time left,” she said.
Mr Troufanov was taken from Nir-Oz. Pic: Bring Them Home Now
In a message to her son, Lena implored him to keep being strong and hold on.
“Do not lose hope, we will not stop fighting for your release until you are here with us, at home.”
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Read more:
Palestinians in northern Gaza on brink of starvation
A timeline of events since 7 October
The video, which Sky News has not yet been able to independently verify, was released by Palestinian Islamic Jihad.
The organisation is proscribed as a terror group by the UK and other countries and has been fighting alongside Hamas in Gaza.
At least 1,200 people were killed and about 250 people taken captive during the 7 October attacks last year, according to Israel.
More than 43,000 people have been killed in Gaza in the fighting that has raged for more than a year now, according to the Hamas-run health ministry.
World
Thousands evacuated in Spain as residents cover cars in plastic wrap – just two weeks after floods killed 220
Thousands of people have been evacuated from their homes in the Costa del Sol as storms are set to bring fresh misery to parts of southern Spain.
More than 220 people were killed in the country’s worst floods in modern history just two weeks ago, with homes and buildings destroyed and streets turned to rivers of mud.
Now, people are covering their cars in plastic wrap and anchoring them to lamp posts as part of efforts to prepare for more flooding.
Authorities have issued a red alert for heavy rain in the Costa del Sol, with areas around Malaga and Granada also subject to warnings that up to 180 millimetres (7 inches) could fall in 12 hours.
Winds of up to 74 mph (119 kmph) and high seas were also predicted for Tarragona, Barcelona and Murcia.
National weather office AEMET also placed parts of Catalonia in northeast Spain on a red alert, with areas along the coast in Tarragona at high risk of “very strong to torrential rain”.
A man walks through a flooded street after the Campanillas river overflowed, due to heavy rains in Malaga, Spain. Pic: Reuters
Pic: Reuters
Videos on social media showed deep water filling some of Malaga’s main streets this afternoon as residents were told to stay at home.
Police closed roads, bus lines across the city were suspended along with some high-speed trains, and parts of Malaga airport were underwater.
Staff at the Hospital Clinico were filmed wading through water after the laboratory area flooded.
Empty train tracks near a beach, as Spain braces for fresh flooding, near Tarragona. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, people living close to the Campanillas River were told to leave their homes as the water began to rise.
Earlier, 3,000 homes were evacuated as a precaution on the banks of the Guadalhorce River.
In the tourist resort of Marbella, a waterspout was seen moving for several minutes through the sea just off the coast.
The opening tie of the Billie Jean King Cup Finals tennis event between Spain and Poland was also postponed because of the storms.
Previously flood-hit areas around Valencia were issued a less severe weather warning prompting some schools to close until Friday.
Thousands of workers are still removing mud and debris that has accumulated on the roads and clogged sewage pipes and drains in towns around Valencia after the recent deadly floods.
There were fears the mud-filled sewers would struggle to cope even if the new downpours weren’t as torrential.
A man walks past stacked up cars after floods in Catarroja. Pic: AP
Flooding in Spain two weeks ago left cars damaged and covered in mud. Pic: Reuters
Army personnel clean a drainage system blocked by mud in Paiporta, Valencia. Pic: Reuters
As the new weather front moved in, authorities confirmed the bodies of two young brothers who went missing when floods hit their home in October had been found.
Ruben and Izan Matias, aged 3 and 5, were discovered in separate locations near Catarroja, almost six miles downstream from their house in Torrent, according to the Civil Guard.
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How Ukrainian units are downing Russian drones
It comes after thousands of people marched in Valencia over the weekend to demand the resignation of the region’s president following the response to the devastating flooding.
Protesters filled the centre of the eastern Spanish city and chanted “killers!” as they called for Carlos Mazon to go, while others dumped muddy boots outside a regional government building.
One banner read: “Our hands are stained with mud, yours with blood.”
Headlights illuminate a group of soldiers smoking and drinking steaming cups of coffee on the side of a road in northeastern Ukraine.
A fine sleet on another freezing night falls on the silhouetted barrel of a Soviet-era anti-aircraft gun mounted on an ancient, battered lorry.
These are the men of a mobile air defence unit, preparing for another night of tracking and attempting to shoot out of the skies the Russian drones heading for cities and power plants across Ukraine.
We joined the units over 48 hours in the southern sector of the city of Sumy, near the border with Russia.
Captain Serhii, of the 117th Brigade, is a commander in charge of 160 of these men in eight mobile units protecting this area of northeastern Ukraine.
Commander Serhii looking for drones on his scanner
We met up with him in an empty car park next to a high-rise apartment block in Sumy.
Sitting in his 4×4 he squinted in concentration as his scanner showed a handful of drones on a flight path heading towards us from Russia.
Air raid sirens blared in the background.
He signalled for us to follow, and he sped off into the night weaving through checkpoints along empty, darkened country roads.
He had said the drone was near, but we were confused when he suddenly pulled off the road and jumped out of his cab.
Within moments the skies were lit up by mobile anti-aircraft batteries firing into the sky.
Tracers from the bullets flew over our heads and above us we could hear the monotonous sound of the drone as it passed overhead.
Searchlights reflected off a dank, dense fog that had enveloped the countryside criss-crossed in the sky as the units tried to spot the drone.
They didn’t spot or hit the drone, and slowly the sound of its motors grew dimmer and dimmer until there was silence.
“You can see the current weather conditions, it’s foggy, so we’re basically working off sound alone, as thermal imaging and other devices can’t pick them up,” Captain Serhii told me.
“A spotlight is completely pointless, the speed of these drones isn’t particularly high, so technically, we could hit them, but the weather makes it impossible,” he added.
Every night across Ukraine the tarpaulin covers are pulled off these Soviet-era anti-aircraft guns and prepared for action.
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On battered trucks they rumble into the night to take up defensive positions.
These old guns are the country’s main defence against an increasing number of drone attacks from Russia.
The units here say they mostly encounter two types of drones which are usually deployed at the same time: Gerberas and Shaheds.
Gerberas do not carry an explosive payload but instead are designed to confuse Ukraine’s air defence, while the Iranian-supplied Shahed drones carry explosives with pre-programmed targets.
One of the soldiers, Volodymyr, tracks the drones on a handheld tablet. All the men wait, watch the screen, and listen.
“They generally fly between 200-300m up to 3km,” Volodymyr tells me.
“If they’re flying lower than 300m above sea level, the radar won’t pick them up.”
The men start to gather around their anti-air battery unit as a drone flies closer towards our location.
Stuart Ramsay and Volodymyr
The gunner then jumps onto the truck and searches for the target on a radar attached to his weapon.
He will fire when it’s within a 10km range of his position.
The night-time silence in the middle of the field is suddenly shattered by the deafening sound of firing as the gunner goes for the drone.
Then in the fields all around us other units join the attack – it’s so dark we had no idea they were even there.
It’s absolutely relentless.
Captain Serhii tells me their critical job would be made easier with more sophisticated weapons like the American-made Patriot system.
“We need a stronger, more automated air defence system that operates independently of human involvement,” he said.
“Winter is approaching, and our guys who are on duty 24/7 will face incredibly tough conditions, they aren’t made of steel, so having an automated system would be ideal.”
Anti-aircraft unit firing at drones from their truck
He believes any political negotiations with Russia will just end badly for Ukraine.
“A frozen conflict is typically just a temporary pause, and you can’t trust [Russian President Vladimir] Putin, because any agreement made will likely work in Russia’s favour,” he told me.
“They’ll stockpile resources, more Shaheds, rockets, soldiers, even North Koreans, and then they’ll return, and they’ll come back stronger than they did in 2022.”
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We join another mobile unit, this time by the side of an empty road as they track another Iranian Shahed drone.
It’s flying in our direction and they’re waiting to see if it will come into range.
It does, and they too attack – firing powerful rounds at their target.
The red, orange, and yellow flashes of colour as the weapon fires light up an otherwise pitch-black sky.
In the 48-hour period we spent with the anti-aircraft units in this part of the Sumy region, Russia deployed a record number of drones into Ukraine.
Ukraine, for its part, deployed a record number of drones against Russia too, but the number is dwarfed by the Russian assault.
Night after freezing night these Ukrainian defenders, hundreds of them around this city, will man these guns.
The last line of defence – not good, but better than nothing.
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