What measures could the West take if there was a nuclear strike and what would it mean for Putin?
Speculation over whether or not Vladimir Putin will use nuclear weapons has been rife and the consequences could be disastrous for the West and the Russian president
With Russia’s invasion stalling and the Ukrainian attack on the Kerch Bridge have both contributed to increased concern Putin could escalate from conventional weapons to a tactical nuclear strike.
The US President Joe Biden said last week that the world was the closest it had been to “Armageddon” at any point since the Cuban Missile Crisis, after more sabre rattling from the Kremlin.
NATO says that such a move would probably lead to a “physical response” from Ukraine, her allies and even NATO itself.
It said any use of nuclear weapons would have “unprecedented consequences” and that Moscow was using its nuclear threats mainly to deter NATO and other countries from intervening directly in Ukraine.
What measures could the West take if Putin goes nuclear?
Former Ukrainian defence minister, Andriy Zagorodnyuk, has said that NATO has several options should Putin make a “terrible” decision.
Writing in Foreign Affairs he said: “It might not even need a land operation, the Western coalition could credibly tell the Kremlin that it would hit Russian capabilities with direct missile strikes and airstrikes, destroying its military facilities and disabling its Black Sea fleet.
“It could threaten to cut all its communications with electronic warfare and arrange a cyber-blackout against the entire Russian military.”
He added that “breaking the nuclear taboo” could also provoke repercussions from China and India, which would be another blow to the Kremlin.
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General David Petraeus says if Vladimir Putin uses tactical nuclear weapons in the battlefield, that will put Russia in a worse position.
Is the West doing anything to deter a nuclear attack?
Professor Michael Clarke, former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute, said the Kremlin had already been warned about the consequences of escalation.
He said: “When the tactical nuclear weapon threats were raised a few weeks ago, the US and three or four NATO members personally contacted their counterparts in Russia and in the Russian general staff to say ‘don’t even think about it’.
“They won’t tell us what they said and nor should they because there has got to be some uncertainty about this in order to maintain a deterrent but what they seem to have said is first of all ‘we will not be passive’.
“Second, we won’t go nuclear, but we will go conventional, and we have the conventional power to hit all of your nuclear infrastructure and facilities. If we even think that you’re going nuclear, if we see the preparations start – we might attack you’.
“That seems to have been the message.”
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Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told Sky News that NATO will carry out annual nuclear exercises to show readiness.
Should the West be doing more now?
Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, has said Russia’s latest missile attacks in Ukraine were “a sad reminder that the most horrific pages of this ugly war are still ahead of us”.
The “Kremlin’s response is becoming ever more erratic disproportionate and destructive,” he said.
Discussing Russia’s reaction to the blast on Kerch Bridge – a key route from Russia to Crimea – Mr Gabuev said this showed Russia “still has a vast toolkit for escalation”.
He said: “Given the high stakes and emotions, the window for diplomacy is likely to open at the most dramatic moment: for example, when Putin starts to unpack his nuclear toolkit, which will be visible to NATO and involve a lot of signalling by Moscow.
“Only then might the Ukrainian and western publics be convinced there is an urgent need to negotiate.”
He added that negotiations would have to involve President Biden “since the Kremlin considers him the only real head of the opposing coalition” and the sooner they started, the better.
What do the Ukrainian people think?
A nuclear attack wouldn’t change anything about the Ukrainian people’s resolve to fight, a Ukrainian MP has claimed.
The Ukrainian MP Yelyzaveta Yasko told Kay Burley: “Putin doesn’t have any logic any more. It’s not possible to justify Putin any more.
“We understand that he’s in his final battle of his life where he wants to prove to all the world that he can do whatever he wants, including taking land, killing thousands of people, destroying infrastructure, and we understand that nuclear threat and a strike is very possible, but it’s not going to change a lot on the scene of Ukraine.
“Of course, it’s a disaster. It’s catastrophic for me. It’s a big tragedy to see thousands of people being killed, wounded, destroyed lives.
“But it’s not going to change the rule of Ukrainian people to restore justice and to restore our territorial sovereignty.”
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Why the West should stop sounding so worried about a nuclear attack
Ian Bond, from the Centre for European Reform, says the West needs to stop being – and sounding – afraid of a nuclear attack.
He told the Doomsday Watch podcast: “Nothing is as provocative to Putin as weakness, so the more the West says ‘We are afraid that Russia might use nuclear weapons’, the more likely that Putin is to continue making the threat of using nuclear weapons – and perhaps even use one or two to demonstrate he really means it.”
Bond says the message to Russia, which could be delivered privately, should be: “Please understand that if you go nuclear, we will regard the gloves as being off.”
While accepting that no one could “absolutely rule out” Russia using nuclear weapons, he added: “We should stop frightening ourselves with the Bogeyman that if the Ukrainians drive the Russians out, the Russians are going to go nuclear, I just don’t buy that.”
World
Jair Bolsonaro: Brazilian Supreme Court judges vote to convict ex-president of attempting a coup
The majority of a panel of Brazilian Supreme Court judges have voted to convict the country’s former president Jair Bolsonaro of attempting a coup after his 2022 election defeat.
The far-right politician, who ruled Brazil between 2019 and 2022, was found guilty on five counts by three members of a five-justice panel.
Just one of the five judges has acquitted Bolsonaro and when the final one has voted, the panel will decide on the former president’s sentence – which could amount to decades in prison.
The five counts were trying to stage a coup, being part of an armed criminal organisation, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, being implicated in violence, and posing a serious threat to the state’s assets and listed heritage.
Pic: AP
The 70-year-old, who has denied any wrongdoing, is currently under house arrest at his home in Brasilia.
His lawyers have said they will appeal the verdict.
The ruling will deepen political divisions in Brazil and is also likely to prompt a backlash from the United States government.
Bolsonaro ally Donald Trump has already called the case a “witch hunt”, slapped Brazil with tariff hikes and revoked US visas for most members of Brazil’s high court.
Bolsonaro is the first former Brazilian president to be convicted of attempting a coup.
He has not attended the court proceedings, and on Thursday he was seen at his garage at his property, but did not talk to the media.
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Justice Carmen Lucia. Pic: AP
Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who is overseeing the case, said on Tuesday that Bolsonaro was the leader of a coup plot and of a criminal organisation, and voted in favour of convicting him. Justices Flavio Dino, Carmen Lucia and Cristiano Zanin sided with Justice Moraes in the trial.
On Wednesday, another justice, Luiz Fux, disagreed and voted to acquit the ex-president of all charges.
Justice Lucia said she was convinced by the evidence the attorney general’s office put forward against Bolsonaro.
She said: “He is the instigator, the leader of an organisation that orchestrated every possible move to maintain or seize power.”
The far-right politician had been previously banned from running for office until 2030 in a different case.
He is expected to choose an heir who is likely to challenge President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva next year.
World
Qatari PM says Israel ‘killed any hope’ of releasing hostages as criticism over Doha attack intensifies
Qatar’s prime minister said Israel has “killed any hope” of seeing more hostages returned from Gaza after carrying out an attack targeting Hamas leadership in his country.
Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani intensified his criticism of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over Tuesday’s unprecedented strike on Qatar, which killed at least six people.
“I was meeting one of the hostage’s families the morning of the attack,” Sheikh Mohammed told CNN in an interview aired late Wednesday.
“They are counting on this [ceasefire] mediation, they have no other hope for that.”
Sheikh Mohammed added that he thought Netanyahu had “just killed any hope for those hostages”.
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Ceasefire talks left in ‘tatters’
A total of 48 Israeli hostages captured during Hamas’ 7 October attacks on southern Israel have not been returned home.
With its attack in Qatar, Israel had sought to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas.
Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.
The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been mediating negotiations to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.
US President Donald Trump reportedly held a heated phone call with Mr Netanyahu after the attack, telling him his decision to target Hamas leadership in Qatar was not wise, according to The Wall Street Journal.
There has been no immediate acknowledgement of the remarks from Mr Netanyahu, however, he’s continued to defend the strikes and threatened further action against Qatar.
“I say to Qatar and all nations who harbour terrorists, you either expel them or you bring them to justice,” Mr Netanyahu said. “Because if you don’t, we will.”
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A senior figure in the Qatari government, Dr Majed Al-Ansari, was the one to announce to the world on X that America’s call to alert them to the attack came 10 minutes after the first explosion sounded in Doha.
Dr Al-Ansari, who serves as Qatar’s foreign ministry spokesperson, recounted the moment of the attack to Sky News’ correspondent Sally Lockwood.
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“I was coming home to my family and the moment I stepped out of the car I started hearing the loud noises that can only be compared to bombs,” he said.
“Being a diplomat and working for the foreign ministry throughout the mediation that we have conducted, I immediately knew that that meant that something terrible has happened.
“I can’t tell you enough how as a father living here in Qatar, that moment was a moment of reckoning for me and for all my countrymen and people who reside here in Qatar, where our lives were at risk because of the narcissistic and personal ambitions of a political operator who wants to throw the whole region into chaos.”
Donald Trump had a heated phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after his military targeted Hamas inside Qatar, according to a report.
The American president told Mr Netanyahu on Tuesday that the decision to strike inside the US ally’s territory was not wise, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing senior administration officials.
The Israeli prime minister responded by saying he had a brief window to launch the airstrike and took the opportunity, according to the newspaper.
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Anger over Israeli strikes on Qatar
A second call between the two leaders later that day was cordial, with Mr Trump asking Mr Netanyahu if the attack had been successful, the publication added.
Israel attempted to kill the political leaders of the Islamist group Hamas with the attack in the Qatari capital Doha on Tuesday.
Hamas has said its top leaders survived the airstrike, but five members were killed, including the son of its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator Khalil al Hayya.
The Israeli military operation in Doha has been widely condemned internationally and was particularly sensitive as Qatar has been hosting and mediating in negotiations which are trying to bring about a ceasefire in the war in Gaza.
On Wednesday, Mr Netanyahu warned Qatar to either expel Hamas officials or “bring them to justice. Because if you don’t, we will”.
Qatar has hit back at him, saying his comments about the Gulf nation hosting a Hamas office were “reckless”.
Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House earlier this year. Pic: Reuters
Meanwhile, the Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, has said that if Israel failed to kill Hamas leaders on Tuesday, it would succeed next time.
“We have put terrorists on notice, wherever they may be… we’re going to pursue them, and we’re going to destroy those who will destroy us,” he said.
The airstrike took place shortly after Hamas claimed responsibility for Monday’s shooting at a bus stop on the outskirts of Jerusalem that killed six people.
Read more:
Analysis: Israel has crossed a huge diplomatic red line
In another development, Sir Keir Starmer has had talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog in Downing Street, with Mr Herzog saying they argued during a “tough meeting”.
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PM meets Israeli president
PM condemns Israeli action
The prime minister has condemned the Israeli attack in Qatar, and raised the matter with the president, saying it was “completely unacceptable”.
“He said the strikes were a flagrant violation of a key partner’s sovereignty and do nothing to secure the peace we all desperately want to see,” a Downing Street spokesperson said.
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Israel has been angered by Britain’s plans to join several other Western countries, including France and Canada, in recognising a Palestinian state later this month – unless Israel meets conditions including a ceasefire in Gaza.
“Things were said that were tough and strong, and clearly we can argue, because when allies meet, they can argue. We are both democracies,” Mr Herzog said at an event at Chatham House.
He also proposed offering a “fact-finding mission” to Israel, “sitting with us and studying the situation in Gaza on the humanitarian level”.
“Because we have full answers, and we are fully transparent,” he said.
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