Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng to return to London from Washington early as major mini-budget U-turn expected
Kwasi Kwarteng will return to the UK from Washington earlier than planned, as another major mini-budget U-turn is expected.
The chancellor was due to attend a final day of meetings at the International Monetary Fund’s annual gathering in Washington today.
Instead, after a hasty briefing with journalists late on Thursday, he announced he would fly home overnight.
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A source close to him dismissed suggestions that this represented a sign of panic and insisted that the chancellor’s focus was the medium-term fiscal plan.
Mr Kwarteng had been due to return to the UK from the annual IMF meeting later on Friday, but hasty changes were made.
Pressed on why there was a need for a last-minute schedule change, a Treasury source insisted that it was for talks on “the medium-term fiscal plan”.
The source said that the IMF trip had “put everything in a global context… a global set of challenges…”
On his return, the chancellor is likely to find a significant section of his mini-budget re-drawn following days of open revolt among Tory MPs and an expectation that another major U-turn is on the cards.
It comes amid speculation in Westminster about the fate of Mr Kwarteng, only a few weeks into the job, if his financial plans are scrapped in the coming days.
However, Mr Kwarteng has insisted that his position is safe, telling broadcasters: “I am not going anywhere.”
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Pressure builds on Kwarteng
PM’s key pledge could be next casualty
Meanwhile, mounting pressure has been placed on Prime Minister Liz Truss to reassure the UK’s financial markets and rescue her administration, with her key pledge to scrap the planned increase in corporation tax from 19% to 25% widely seen as a likely casualty.
Former home secretary Priti Patel became the latest senior Tory to suggest the government could be forced into another U-turn, telling Sky News “market forces” could make a reversal on corporation tax cuts unavoidable.
Downing Street has not denied the policy could be reversed, despite it being one of Ms Truss’s landmark promises.
Former chancellor Rishi Sunak gave no comment when asked about the Truss government tax cuts
Several reports have also suggested that senior Conservatives are plotting the possibility of replacing Ms Truss with a joint ticket of Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt.
The Times newspaper said party grandees are among those considering replacing her with a “unity candidate”.
Sky News understands Downing Street held talks on abandoning more elements of the £43bn tax-cutting mini-budget on Thursday, with proposed changes to corporation tax and dividend tax among the policies being considered.
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‘There are difficult choices’ to be made
Speculation surrounding the proposed changes have been fuelled by the chancellor following an interview he did with The Daily Telegraph.
Asked about the expectation that the government could ditch its corporation tax promise, Mr Kwarteng simply replied: “Let’s see”.
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‘Don’t prolong the pain’
He also insisted there would be “no real cuts to public spending”, but added that “there are difficult choices” to be made.
“You have to make sure that you know the public is getting value for money. And I make no apologies for that, there has to be some sort of fiscal discipline,” he said.
Since his mini-budget announcement at the end of September, the UK’s financial markets have been reeling, with the Bank of England forced to intervene to restore some sense of stability.
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‘Get on and do it – we all know it’s coming’
Not only did his policies spook markets, but they also caused anger among the Conservative Party, with some senior Tories calling for changes to be made.
Newly elected Foreign Affairs Committee Chair Alicia Kearns told LBC’s Tonight With Andrew Marr that she wanted the PM to succeed, but added her voice to calls for a change of course on the mini-budget.
She said: “The markets are not woke, the markets are not left. The fact they are not lefty, anti-government, the fact they have been spooked, is something that should be taken incredibly seriously.”
Former chancellor Ken Clarke told Sky News he has “never known a government to make such a catastrophic start”.
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Former veterans minister Johnny Mercer also tweeted that the situation “needs a course correction” from Number 10.
“Get on and do it – we all know it’s coming,” he wrote.
The government’s plans revolve around securing an increase in economic growth – with a target of an annual rise of around 2.5% in gross domestic product.
The crucial date will be 31 October, when the forecasts presented by the Office for Budget Responsibility alongside the chancellor’s statement will give an assessment on whether such a plan is realistic.
A trio of property giants has lodged a protest against a radical financial restructuring that will see Cineworld imposing steep rent cuts on its landlords.
Sky News has learnt that British Land, Landsec and Legal & General Investment Management all voted against the cinema operator’s restructuring plan this week.
Cineworld has confirmed plans to close six of its UK multiplexes, but documents circulated to creditors show almost 50 others are in categories requiring landlords to agree to revised rent deals in order to ensure their long-term viability.
Although they carry significant influence in the commercial property sector, the trio’s protest will have no impact on the outcome of the company’s proposals, since its owners are now also among its largest creditors, meaning they can effectively force the deal through.
According to documents sent to creditors during the summer, 33 sites – categorised as Class B – “require a reduction of rent to ERV [Estimated Rental Value] Rent in order to place the sites on a viable long-term footing”.
A further 38 of Cineworld’s cinemas would be unaffected, while another 16 Class C1 and C2 leases require reductions to either turnover rent or zero rent in order to render them financially viable.
The documents added that the company did not have sufficient funding to meet a quarterly rent bill on June 24 of £15.9m.
“The UK group did not have sufficient liquidity to make the June 2024 Rent Payment and required further funding from the US Group to meet this liquidity need.
“Absent this funding, the UK Group would have been insolvent on a cashflow basis.”
Cineworld is being advised by AlixPartners.
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Other cinema operators are now poised to step in to take over some of Cineworld’s sites.
The company trades from more than 100 locations in Britain, including at the Picturehouse chain, and employs thousands of people.
Cineworld grew under the leadership of the Greidinger family into a global giant of the industry, acquiring chains including Regal in the US in 2018 and the British company of the same name four years earlier.
Its multibillion-dollar debt mountain led it into crisis, though, and forced the company into Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2022.
It delisted from the London Stock Exchange last August, having seen its share price collapse amid fears for its survival.
Cineworld also operates in central and Eastern Europe, Israel and the US.
A long-running measure of consumer confidence has slumped to levels last seen at the start of the year following warnings of “tough choices” ahead in the looming budget.
GfK’s Consumer Confidence Index fell seven points in September to minus 20, with significant drops in predictions for personal finances and the general economy over the coming year.
The report’s authors suggested it was “not encouraging news” for the new government, which has made growing the economy its top priority.
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But within weeks of taking the post of chancellor, Rachel Reeves – followed by prime minister Sir Keir Starmer – moved to warn of a legacy £22bn “black hole” in the public finances and said it would result in a painful budget on 30 October.
Among measures already taken include cuts to winter fuel payments, leaving up to 10 million pensioners up to £300 worse off, and inflation-busting public sector pay settlements.
Tax rises and spending cuts are widely expected in next month’s statement to MPs though The Times reported on Friday that a decision by the Bank of England to slow a programme of loss-making bond sales would leave Ms Reeves £10bn better off than she had anticipated.
It added that she was still expected to push forward with her budget plans anyway as a signal of her commitment to fiscal discipline.
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Chancellor: ‘One budget not enough’
The latest snapshot on the public finances, released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Friday showed net borrowing of £13.7bn during August.
Its chief economist, Grant Fitzner, said: “Borrowing was up by over £3bn last month on 2023’s figure, and was the third highest August borrowing on record.
“Central government tax receipts grew strongly, but this was outweighed by higher expenditure, largely driven by benefits uprating and higher spending on public services due to increased running costs and pay.”
Consumer spending accounts for around 60% of the UK economy.
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Data released separately on Friday showed a 1% rise in retail sales volumes during August in the wake of weakness, mostly blamed on poor weather, over the previous couple of months.
The ONS said that the increase was driven by supermarket sales, as demand for BBQ food and drinks rose due to the arrival of some sunshine over the key holiday month.
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UK economy flatlines again
It also credited discounting by clothing retailers.
The data chimes with the latest updates from big retailers, including Next and B&Q’s owner, which have spoken of weak demand for so-called big ticket items such as home furnishings and kitchens respectively.
GfK’s closely-watched survey showed expectations for the general economy over the next 12 months fell by 12 points to -27, while the forecast for personal finances was down nine points to -3.
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Commenting on its key measures, including the headline figure, consumer insights director at GfK Neil Bellamy said: “These three measures are key forward-looking indicators so despite stable inflation and the prospect of further cuts in the base interest rate, this is not encouraging news for the UK’s new government.”
He added: “Strong consumer confidence matters because it underpins economic growth and is a significant driver of shoppers’ willingness to spend.
“Following the withdrawal of the winter fuel payments, and clear warnings of further difficult decisions to come on tax, spending and welfare, consumers are nervously awaiting the budget decisions on October 30.”
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