Liz Truss came into office promising to boost the country’s growth rate through a forensic combination of tax cuts, reforms to the country’s supply side (for which read: things like planning reform) and spending restraint. This was, if you squint a little bit, not dissimilar to the kinds of policies espoused by Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.
It always looked risky – especially at such a fragile point for the global economy. We are coming to the end of a 12-year period of cheap money, something which is causing a near-nervous breakdown in financial markets. Central banks are in the process of raising interest rates and trying to feed the glut of bonds they bought during the financial crisis back in the market.
As if that weren’t enough, Europe is facing one of its bleakest economic winters in modern memory, with a war raging in Ukraine and energy prices touching historic highs. It is hard to think of many less auspicious periods to attempt an untested new economic manifesto.
Yet Ms Truss and her former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng pushed on all the same. And unlike Thatcher, whose first few budgets were grisly austerity packages which no one much enjoyed, Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng aimed to turn Thatcherism on its head. Instead of fixing the public finances first and then cutting taxes second, they opted to spend the fruits of economic growth before that growth had even been achieved.
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The mini-budget of 23 September was a small document with extraordinarily large consequences. Ironically, the more expensive the measures were, the less controversial they turned out to be. The scheme to cap household energy unit costs will potentially cost hundreds of billions of pounds, yet (and we know this because it was pre-announced long before the mini-budget) investors barely batted an eyelid. They carried on lending to this country at more or less the same or equivalent rates.
The same was not the case for the rest of the mini-budget’s policies. Shortly after they were announced – everything from the abolition of the 45p rate (actually quite cheap in fiscal terms) to the cancellation of Rishi Sunak’s corporation tax rise – markets began to lurch in what was, for Ms Truss, and most UK households, the wrong direction. The pound sank, the yields on government debt, which determine the interest rates across most of the economy, began to climb.
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That was bad enough. When Mr Kwarteng announced gleefully a couple of days later on television that he had more tax cuts up his sleeve, the trot out of the country became a stampede. The pound fell, briefly, to the lowest level against the dollar in the history of, well, the dollar.
Even more worryingly, those interest rates on government bonds rose at an unprecedented rate, causing all sorts of malfunctions throughout the money markets.
The most obvious – and the one that perhaps will have the longest legacy – is the rise in mortgage rates. But the unexpected consequences were even more worrying, among them a crisis in funds used by pension schemes. That sparked a “run dynamic” which compelled the Bank of England to step in with an emergency support scheme.
Even at this point, we were into unprecedented territory. Never before had the Bank been forced to intervene quite like this. Never before had it had to do so as a result of a government’s Budget.
The intervention, however, had some success, bringing down the relevant interest rates and bringing markets back from the edge. But there was a sting in the tail: a deadline. Today, 14 October.
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3:22
Analysis: PM’s new tax U-turn
In hindsight perhaps it’s obvious that this, then, would always have been the day when the government might face another existential crisis. Investors were always going to be nervous ahead of the Bank’s withdrawal from this neck of the bond market. And that is precisely what happened: after the governor reiterated, on a panel in Washington, that he was indeed serious, all eyes then turned to the chancellor. Could he say something to reassure markets?
In the event, the answer was: no. But something else changed matters: growing rumours of a U-turn. That brings us to this morning. The chancellor, pulled back from Washington early, was dismissed. The U-turn began. The corporation tax freeze is to be abandoned. The coming medium-term fiscal plan will involve austerity and a big dose of fiscal pain. The upshot is that Trussonomics, which was hinged clearly on tax cuts like these, is dead in the water.
However, the bigger question concerns what happens next. Those markets, which Ms Truss said explicitly were the reason for her U-turn, are still pretty frantic. No one knows how they’ll fare on Monday, but, whether right or wrong, another grisly day will almost certainly be seen as a sign of the government’s failure. And, having sealed the fate of her chancellor, the markets could well seal the fate of the prime minister.
But that’s a few days away – a long time in both politics and markets.
Image: Liz Truss appoints Jeremy Hunt as chancellor. Pic: Andrew Parsons / No 10 Downing Street
In the meantime, here is something to dwell on: an alternative version of history. In a parallel universe, Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng did things slightly less hastily. They decided their emergency Budget would simply deal with the energy price shock coming this winter. They promised an OBR statement and hatched plans for a growth-generating budget in a few months’ time.
In that parallel universe, interest rates probably wouldn’t have risen so high. The rises would, anyway, have been blamed on the Bank of England, not the government. The government would have enjoyed some kudos for having prevented energy-related penury this winter and made merry in their honeymoon. Things could have been oh-so different.
Now, all of this is of course imponderable. But it does rather underline an important point: none of this was inevitable. This wasn’t a crisis like 1992 – where the UK faced monetary pressures suffered by nearly every other nation in Europe. It was simply a succession of very unfortunate decisions at precisely the wrong moment.
At a time of market turmoil and war in Europe, Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng chose to take a gamble. It did not pay off.
:: The new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, will talk to Sky News tomorrow morning. Tune in from 7am on Saturday.
There was also a surprise increase in the unemployment rate, up to 4.8% from 4.7% a month earlier, primarily driven by younger people, as a record number of people over 65 are in work, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.
Economists polled by Reuters anticipated no change in the jobless rate, but instead the figure is now the highest since the three months to May 2021, when the country was in lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The ONS, however, has advised caution when interpreting changes in the monthly unemployment rate and job vacancy numbers due to concerns over the reliability of the figures.
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The labour market has struggled in recent months as the cost of employing staff became more expensive due to higher employers’ national insurance contributions and an increased minimum wage.
Wage rises slowing
Further signs of a slowing labour market were seen in the fall of annual private sector wage growth to the lowest rate in nearly four years – 4.4%.
Public sector pay growth increased more quickly, at 6%, as some public sector pay rises were awarded earlier than they were last year.
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2:25
Inflation up: the bad and ‘good’ news
Average weekly earnings rose more than expected by economists at 5% and also more than previously thought after a revision to last month’s figures (4.8%).
Also published by the ONS was data on industrial action, which showed August had the fewest working days lost to strike action in a single month for nearly six years.
What does it mean for interest rates?
While a tough job market is difficult for people looking for work, the slowing wage rises can mean interest rates are brought down.
The rate-setters at the Bank of England had been concerned about the effect higher wages could have on inflation, which it is mandated to bring to 2% though latest figures showed it was at 3.8%.
Following today’s figures, traders expect a cut in the interest rate to 4.75% in December.
No change is anticipated at the next interest rate setter meeting in November.
For most of human history, no one paid all that much attention to the 17 rare earth elements.
An obscure suite of elements that sit in their own corner of the periodic table, they were mostly renowned among chemists and geologists for being tricky and fiddly – incredibly hard to refine, but with chemical facets that made them, well… interesting.
Not so much for a single thing they did by themselves, but for what they did in conjunction with other elements.
Added to alloys, rare earths can make them stronger, more ductile, more heat-resistant, and so on. Think of them as a sort of metallic condiment: a seasoning you add to other substances to make them stronger, harder, better.
Image: A worker prepares to pour the rare earth metal Lanthanum into a mould in a workshop in Inner Mongolia. File pic: Reuters
The best example is probably neodymium. On its own, there’s nothing especially spectacular about this rare earth element. But add it to iron and boron, and you end up with the strongest magnets in the world. Neodymium iron boron magnets are everywhere.
If you have a pair of headphones or earbuds, the speakers inside them (“drivers” is the technical term) are driven by these rare earth magnets.
If you have a pair of Apple AirPods, those magnets aren’t just in the speakers; they’re what’s responsible for the satisfying “click” when the case snaps shut.
Image: One of the many everyday products that rely on rare earth minerals. Pic: Reuters
Rare earth magnets are in your car: in the little motors that raise and lower the windows, inside the functioning of the airbag and the seat adjustment mechanism.
And not just the little things. Most electric vehicles use rare-earth magnets in their motors, enabling them to accelerate more efficiently than the old all-copper ones.
Image: Pic: iStock
More sensitively, from the perspective of Western governments, in the military, there are tonnes of rare earths to be found in submarines, in fighter jets, in tanks and frigates. Much of this is in the form of magnets, but some is in the form of specialised alloys.
So, for instance, there is no making a modern jet engine without yttrium and zirconium, which, together, help those metallic fan blades withstand the extraordinary temperatures inside the engine. Without rare earths, the blades would simply melt.
Image: Miners are seen at the Bayan Obo mine containing rare earth minerals, in Inner Mongolia, China. File pic: Reuters
Yet the amount of this stuff we mine from the ground each year is surprisingly small.
According to Rob West of Thunder Said Energy, the total size of the rare earth market is roughly the same as the North American avocado market. But, says West, those numbers underplay its profound importance.
“Buyers would likely pay over 10-100x more for small but essential quantities of rare earths, if supplies were ever disrupted,” he says.
“You cannot make long-distance fibre cables without erbium. You cannot make a gas turbine or jet engine without yttrium.”
China’s dominance
In short, these things matter. And that brings us to the politics.
Right now, about 70% of the world’s rare earth elements are mined in China.
Roughly 90% of the finished products (in other words, those magnets) are made in China. China is dominant in this field in an extraordinary way.
This is not, it’s worth saying, for geological reasons.
Contrary to what the name suggests, rare earth elements aren’t all that rare. Pull a chunk of soil out of the ground and there will be trace amounts of most of them in there.
True: finding concentrated ores is a bit harder, but even here, it’s not as if they are all in China.
There are plenty of rich rare earth ores in Brazil, India, Australia, and even the US (indeed, the Mountain Pass mine in California is where rare earth mining really began in earnest).
Low cost of Chinese rare earths
The main explanation for Chinese dominance is that China has simply become very good at extracting lots of rare earths at relatively low cost.
According to figures from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, the prevailing cost of Chinese rare earths is at least three times lower than the cost of similar minerals refined in Europe (to the extent that such things are available).
At this point, perhaps you’re wondering how China has managed to do it – to dominate global production at such low prices.
Part of the explanation, says West, probably comes down to “transfer pricing” – in other words, China being China, refiners and producers are probably able to buy raw materials at below market prices.
Another part of the explanation is that refining rare earth ores is phenomenally energy and carbon-intensive.
Most European and American firms have pulled out of the sector because it is hideously dirty.
Image: A man works at the site of a rare earth metals mine at Nancheng county, Jiangxi province, China. File pic: Reuters
Such qualms are less of an issue in China, especially since most of their mines, including the biggest of all, Bayan Obo in Inner Mongolia, are hundreds if not thousands of miles from the nearest city.
Energy costs are less of a constraint in a country whose grid is still built mostly on a foundation of cheap thermal coal.
Add it all up, and you end up with the situation we have today: where the vast majority of the world’s rare earths, that go into all our devices, come from dirty mines in China, produced at such a low cost that device manufacturers are happy to put them anywhere.
Anyway, that brings us to the politics.
Global trade war flaring up again
In recent months and years, China has periodically introduced controls on rare earth exports.
In short, the global trade war seems to be flaring up all over again.
Image: Pic: iStock
Where this ends up is anyone’s guess. Tim Worstall, a former scandium expert who has been in and out of the rare earths sector for decades, suspects China might have overplayed its hand.
“The end result here is that there can be two outcomes,” he says.
“A: The entire world’s usage of rare earths is mapped out in detail, end uses, end users, quantities, and times for the Chinese state and depends upon their bureaucracy to administer.
“B: The plentiful rare earths of elsewhere are dug up, and the supply chain is rebuilt outside China.
“My insistence is that B is going to be the outcome, and it’ll be done, intervention or no.”
Tens of thousands of Vodafone users are reporting problems with their internet
The outages began on Monday afternoon, according to the monitoring website DownDetector, which reported more than 130,000 issues with Vodafone connections.
A spokeswoman for the company said: “We are aware of a major issue on our network currently affecting broadband, 4G and 5G services.
“We appreciate our customers’ patience while we work to resolve this as soon as possible.”
The company has more than 18 million UK customers, with nearly 700,000 of those using Vodafone’s home broadband connection.
Vodafone users vented their frustration on social media.
“It’s like Vodafone has just been wiped off the earth. Not a single thing works,” said one X user.
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Image: Vodafone users were shown an error message when trying to access the internet provider’s app
The Vodafone app also appeared to be down for users, with the company’s website briefly going down too.
The ‘network status checker’ on the website was also down, and when Sky News tried to test the customer helpline, it did not ring.
“There’s Vodafone down and then there’s Vodafone wiped off the face of the f***ing planet,” posted another X user.
Jake Moore, global cybersecurity advisor at ESET, said the outage shows how reliant we are on modern infrastructure like mobile networks.
“Outages will always naturally raise early suspicions of a potential cyber incident, though current evidence points more towards an internal network failure than a confirmed attack,” said Mr Moore.
“The sudden outage, combined with the inability to access customer service lines, mirrors classic symptoms of a distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attack, where attackers overwhelm the network so the site or systems collapse.
“However, malicious or not, this once again highlights our heavy reliance on digital infrastructure, especially in an age where we increasingly depend on mobile networks for everything,” he said.
“Ultimately, resilience is essential, whether the cause is a direct cyberattack, a supply chain issue or a critical internal error.”