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The financial markets have responded positively to the government’s anticipated U-turn on parts of its massive mini-budget programme of unfunded tax cuts and energy price cap spending.

Despite initial positive moves in the market on Friday the response to Liz Truss’s U-turn speech on Friday afternoon has been negative.

UK government borrowing, necessary for planned large amounts of state spending, has become more expensive since Truss’s announcement.

UK 30 year bond yield

Paying for goods in US dollars, as importers do, has also become more expensive as the pound slid in value. Drops in the value of the pound signal a lack of confidence from investors in the UK market.

Pound vs dollar

Markets had already priced in the government’s policy U-turn as the interest rate payments on long-dated government bonds, effectively state IOUs, sunk on Friday morning while the pound rose against the dollar and the euro.

As a result of the government’s rise in corporation tax, instead of the reduction it announced in the mini-budget, government bonds, known as gilts, fell. The measure is expected to add £18bn to state coffers.

These are the bonds that have had to be bought up as part of the Bank of England’s unprecedented intervention in the market to prevent a collapse in pensions as the market doubted the credibility of the UK’s economic plans.

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The interest rate on long-dated gilts, which is the effective cost of government borrowing, fell steeply on Friday.

The interest rates had risen sharply following the mini-budget announcement, causing a massive sell-off, before the Bank announced its 13-day intervention on 28 September. That intervention is to end on Friday afternoon.

The 30-year gilts fell from near a high of 5% on Thursday following Sky News’s announcement of the U-turn, to 4.3% on Friday.

Similarly 20-year gilts fell from near a high of 5% to 4.42%.

The fall in the interest rate of the benchmark 10-year government gilt was also large, from 4.3% on Thursday to slightly above 4% on Friday.

The pound also saw a rise against the dollar, up from $1.11 on Thursday to $1.13 on Friday morning, before settling at around $1.12 on Friday afternoon, despite a dip in the wake of the sacking of Kwasi Kwarteng.

Markets are now also betting the Bank of England’s base interest rate, which determines the cost of borrowing in the UK, is going to be lower than had been expected earlier this week. A rate of 5.25% is now forecast, the lowest rate forecast since the money budget and a large drop from the 5.75% that was priced by UK money markets on Thursday.

That reduction is likely to reduce mortgage rates which had steadily risen since the mini-budget announcement as lenders pulled mortgage products from the market amid uncertainty over how much the Bank of England would raise rates.

On Friday morning there were 3,112 mortgage products on the market, still lower than before the mini-budget was announced, but an increase from the ten year low of 2,258 mortgages available on 1 October.

Mortgage rates had risen significantly since the mini-budget date on 23 September. On Friday the average interest rate on a two-year fixed term mortgage was 6.47%, and 6.29% on a five-year fixed term mortgage was. It’s nearly a 2% increase from the 4.74% and 4.75% average rates for two and five-year fixed term mortgages that existed prior to the mini-budget.

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Gary Neville hits out at national insurance rise – and makes prediction for Manchester United’s season

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Gary Neville hits out at national insurance rise - and makes prediction for Manchester United's season

Gary Neville has criticised the government’s national insurance (NI) rise this year, saying it could deter companies from employing people and “probably could have been held back”.

The former Manchester United and England footballer-turned business owner, who vocally supported Labour at the last election, employs hundreds of people.

But he expressed his frustration at the recent hike on employers’ NI, which has significantly increased the taxes businesses have to pay for their employees.

Speaking to Sky News’ Business Live, Neville said: “I honestly don’t believe that, to be fair, companies and small businesses should be deterred from employing people. So, I think the national insurance rise was one that I feel probably could have been held back, particularly in terms of the way in which the economy was.”

While the Sky Sports pundit thought the minimum wage increase introduced at the same time was necessary to ensure that people are paid a fair wage and looked after, he made it clear the double whammy for businesses at the start of April would be a challenge for many companies big and small.

“I mean look it’s been a tough economy now for a good few years and I did think that once there was a change of government, and once there was some stability, that we would get something settling,” he said. “But it’s not settling locally in our country, but it is not settling actually, to be fair, in many places in the world either.

“I don’t think we can ever criticise the government for increasing the minimum wage. I honestly believe that people, to be fair, should be paid more so I don’t think that’s something that you can be critical of. I do think that the national insurance rise, though, was a challenge.”

Read more:
The industries hit hardest by national insurance hike
Survival guide: How to offset national insurance contributions hike

Neville’s business interests are diverse, spanning property development, hospitality, media, and sports.

He co-founded GG Hospitality, which owns Hotel Football and the Stock Exchange Hotel, and is involved in Relentless Developments, focusing on building projects in the North West. He is also a co-founder of Buzz 16, a production company, and a partner in The Consello Group, a financial services company.

The tax increase is expected to raise £25bn for the Treasury, with employers having to pay NI at 15% on salaries above £5,000, and up to 13.8% on salaries above £9,100.

The rise has already led the Bank of England to warn that it is contributing to a job market slowdown.

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NI and tariffs pile pressure on firms

Governor Andrew Bailey warned last month that “the labour market has been very tight in the past few years, but we are now seeing signs that conditions are easing, employment growth is subdued, and several indicators of labour demand and hiring intentions have softened”.

The government has defended the tax increase, announced by Rachel Reeves in last year’s budget and implemented in April, arguing that the money was needed to pay for public services like the NHS to help bring down waiting lists.

‘Can’t get any worse’ for Man Utd

Neville conceded that turning beleaguered football club Manchester United around could prove more difficult than trying to bring about substantial economic growth.

The side finished 15th last season – its worst performance in the history of the Premier League.

“Yeah, that could be a bigger challenge than the economy… I think the two signings are good signings yet, there’s a couple more needed,” Neville said of his former club’s fortunes.

“I think they need a goalkeeper. And I think if they fill those two positions with decent signings, then United can have a lot, I mean, they have to have a better season than last year. It can’t get any worse, really.”

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English cricket goes into bat with bulk of £520m Hundred windfall

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English cricket goes into bat with bulk of £520m Hundred windfall

English cricket’s governing body will on Wednesday hail a landmark moment for the sport when it announces that three-quarters of the deals to bring in new investors to The Hundred have been completed.

Sky News understands that the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) plans to issue a statement confirming that it has received proceeds from the sale of stakes in Birmingham Phoenix, London Spirit, Manchester Originals, Northern Superchargers, Southern Brave and Welsh Fire.

The two other franchise deals – involving the Oval Invincibles and Nottinghamshire’s Trent Rockets – will be completed on October 1, the ECB is expected to say.

One insider said a statement was likely to be issued on Wednesday, although they cautioned that the timing could slip.

When all eight deals are concluded, they will generate a collective windfall of £520m for the sport’s strained coffers.

Last week, Sky News revealed that unresolved talks between India’s richest family and Surrey County Cricket Club – which hosts the Oval Invincibles Hundred team – were threatening to delay the delivery of a vast windfall for the sport.

One of the outstanding issues relates to the name under which the Oval Invincibles will play in future years, with the Ambani family keen to use a derivative of the Mumbai Indians brand that it also owns.

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This week’s announcement will come after months of talks after the ECB and the eight Hundred-playing counties agreed exclusivity periods with their preferred investors.

The backers include some of the world’s most prominent financiers, billionaires and technology executives.

Following protracted talks, the ECB has agreed to revised terms with the investors, with host venues now retaining control of their teams’ intellectual property rights.

The investors will also hold an effective veto over future expansion of the Hundred, while the ECB will be barred from launching any other short-form professional version of the sport while the Hundred remains operational.

Meanwhile, the governing body will retain full ownership of the competition itself as well as controlling the regulation of it and the window within which it can be played each year.

The ECB has been waiting for investors in the eight franchises to sign participation agreements since an auction in February, which valued the participating teams at just over £975m.

Some of the deals involve the investors owning 49% of their respective franchise, while India’s Sun TV Network has taken full ownership of Yorkshire’s Northern Superchargers.

The proceeds of its stake sales will be distributed to all of English cricket’s professional counties as well as £50m being delivered to the grassroots game.

The windfalls are being seen as a lifeline for many cash-strapped counties which have been struggling under significant debt piles for many years.

The most valuable Hundred sale saw a group of technology tycoons, including executives from Google and Microsoft, paying about £145m for a 49% stake in Lord’s-based London Spirit.

This year’s tournament kicks off next week with fixtures including a clash between the two London-based franchises.

The ECB declined to comment.

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Italian restaurant chain Gusto on brink of administration

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Italian restaurant chain Gusto on brink of administration

The intense financial pressure facing Britain’s casual dining sector will be underlined this week when Gusto, the Italian restaurant chain, falls into administration.

Sky News has learnt that Interpath Advisory is preparing a pre-pack insolvency of Gusto, which trades from 13 sites.

Sources said that a vehicle set up by Cherry Equity Partners, the owner of Latin American restaurant concept Cabana, was the likely buyer.

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It is expected to take over most of Gusto’s sites although some job losses are likely.

A deal could be announced in the coming days, according to insiders.

The collapse of Gusto, which is backed by private equity investor Palatine, follows a string of increasingly heated warnings from hospitality executives about the impact of tax rises on the sector.

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Kate Nicholls, who chairs UK Hospitality, said this month that the industry faced a jobs bloodbath amid growing financial pressure on operators.

This week, Sky News reported that the restaurant industry veteran David Page, a former boss of PizzaExpress, was raising £10m to take advantage of cut-price acquisition opportunities in casual dining.

Mr Page is planning to become executive chairman of London-listed Tasty, which owns Wildwood and dim t, and rename it Bow Street Group.

A placing of shares in the company is likely to be completed this week.

Interpath declined to comment on the Gusto process.

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