The financial markets have responded positively to the government’s anticipated U-turn on parts of its massive mini-budget programme of unfunded tax cuts and energy price cap spending.
Despite initial positive moves in the market on Friday the response to Liz Truss’s U-turn speech on Friday afternoon has been negative.
UK government borrowing, necessary for planned large amounts of state spending, has become more expensive since Truss’s announcement.
Paying for goods in US dollars, as importers do, has also become more expensive as the pound slid in value. Drops in the value of the pound signal a lack of confidence from investors in the UK market.
Markets had already priced in the government’s policy U-turn as the interest rate payments on long-dated government bonds, effectively state IOUs, sunk on Friday morning while the pound rose against the dollar and the euro.
As a result of the government’s rise in corporation tax, instead of the reduction it announced in the mini-budget, government bonds, known as gilts, fell. The measure is expected to add £18bn to state coffers.
These are the bonds that have had to be bought up as part of the Bank of England’s unprecedented intervention in the market to prevent a collapse in pensions as the market doubted the credibility of the UK’s economic plans.
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The interest rate on long-dated gilts, which is the effective cost of government borrowing, fell steeply on Friday.
The interest rates had risen sharply following the mini-budget announcement, causing a massive sell-off, before the Bank announced its 13-day intervention on 28 September. That intervention is to end on Friday afternoon.
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The 30-year gilts fell from near a high of 5% on Thursday following Sky News’s announcement of the U-turn, to 4.3% on Friday.
Similarly 20-year gilts fell from near a high of 5% to 4.42%.
The fall in the interest rate of the benchmark 10-year government gilt was also large, from 4.3% on Thursday to slightly above 4% on Friday.
The pound also saw a rise against the dollar, up from $1.11 on Thursday to $1.13 on Friday morning, before settling at around $1.12 on Friday afternoon, despite a dip in the wake of the sacking of Kwasi Kwarteng.
Markets are now also betting the Bank of England’s base interest rate, which determines the cost of borrowing in the UK, is going to be lower than had been expected earlier this week. A rate of 5.25% is now forecast, the lowest rate forecast since the money budget and a large drop from the 5.75% that was priced by UK money markets on Thursday.
That reduction is likely to reduce mortgage rates which had steadily risen since the mini-budget announcement as lenders pulled mortgage products from the market amid uncertainty over how much the Bank of England would raise rates.
On Friday morning there were 3,112 mortgage products on the market, still lower than before the mini-budget was announced, but an increase from the ten year low of 2,258 mortgages available on 1 October.
Mortgage rates had risen significantly since the mini-budget date on 23 September. On Friday the average interest rate on a two-year fixed term mortgage was 6.47%, and 6.29% on a five-year fixed term mortgage was. It’s nearly a 2% increase from the 4.74% and 4.75% average rates for two and five-year fixed term mortgages that existed prior to the mini-budget.
Amanda Staveley, the former Newcastle United Football Club joint-owner, will on Monday be forced to clarify her interest in bidding for Premier League club Tottenham Hotspur following veteran chairman Daniel Levy’s unexpected departure last week.
Sky News has learnt that PCP International Finance, a vehicle controlled by Ms Staveley, is expected to issue a statement following discussions with the UK takeover watchdog saying that she does not intend to make a formal offer for Spurs.
People close to the situation said on Sunday that Ms Staveley had been in discussions with prospective backers of a bid for the club in recent weeks.
Spurs’ ownership is complicated by the fact that it is subject to the UK Takeover Code – governed by the Takeover Panel.
Under the provisions in the Code, PCP could yet return with a formal takeover bid for Spurs if invited to do so by the board of Enic, or if a rival bidder announces its intention to make a firms offer for last season’s Europa League winners.
City sources pointed to these caveats as being particularly relevant to Ms Staveley’s potential ongoing interest in Spurs.
Enic owns a stake of nearly 87% in the club, with the remaining shares owned by a group of minority investors.
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Image: Daniel Levy. Pic: PA
Mr Levy reportedly owns a stake of almost 30% in Enic, while Joe Lewis, Enic’s majority-owner, transferred control of his stake in Spurs to his family trust in 2022.
A source close to the Lewis family said on Sunday evening: “The club is not for sale.”
His exit last week after nearly 25 years as Tottenham chairman was apparently driven by a desire to inject fresh momentum into the leadership of the club.
In a statement last week, it said: “Tottenham Hotspur has been transformed over the last quarter of a century.
“It has played in European competitions in the last 18 of 20 seasons, becoming one of the world’s most recognised football clubs, consistently investing in its academy, players and facilities, including a new, world-class stadium and state of the art training centre.”
Rothschild, the investment bank, had previously been engaged by Mr Levy to raise hundreds of millions of capital to invest in Spurs.
Those discussions are understood to have involved a range of parties in the past year.
Any takeover bid for Spurs, regardless of the identity of the bidder, would be likely to value at well in excess of £3.5bn for it to be deemed acceptable.
A spokesman for Ms Staveley declined to comment on Sunday evening.
Britain’s biggest high street lender is closing in on a deal to buy Curve, a provider of digital wallet technology that its new owner hopes will give it an edge in the race to build smarter online payments systems.
Sky News has learnt that Lloyds Banking Group could announce the acquisition of Curve for about £120m as soon as this week.
City sources said this weekend that the terms of a transaction had been agreed, although a formal announcement could yet slip to later in the month.
The financial services giant, which owns the Halifax brand and operates the biggest bank branch network in the UK, believes Curve’s digital wallet platform will be a valuable asset amid growing regulatory pressure on Apple to open its payment services to rivals.
Curve was founded by Shachar Bialick, a former Israeli special forces soldier, in 2016, and was hailed as one of Britain’s most promising fintechs.
Three years later, Mr Bialick told an interviewer: “In 10 years’ time we are going to be IPOed [listed on the public equity markets]… and hopefully worth around $50bn to $60bn.”
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The sale price may therefore be a disappointment to long-standing Curve shareholders, given that it raised £133m in its Series C funding round, which concluded in 2023.
That round included backing from Britannia, IDC Ventures, Cercano Management – the venture arm of Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen’s estate – and Outward VC.
Curve was also reported to have raised more than £40m last year, while reducing employee numbers and suspending its US expansion.
In total, the company has raised more than £200m in equity since it was founded.
Curve is being advised by KBW, part of the investment bank Stifel, on the discussions with Lloyds.
The company is chaired by the City grandee Lord Fink, who is also a shareholder in the company.
Curve has been positioned as a rival to Apple Pay in recent years, having initially launched as an app enabling consumers to combine their debit and credit cards in a single wallet.
Image: Curve Pay is a digital wallet, which combines a person’s credit and debit cards into a single wallet
Lloyds is said to have identified Curve as a strategically attractive bid target as it pushes deeper into payments infrastructure under chief executive Charlie Nunn.
In March, the Financial Conduct Authority and Payment Systems Regulator began working with the Competition and Markets Authority to examine the implications of the growth of digital wallets owned by Apple and Google.
Lloyds owns stakes in a number of fintechs, including the banking-as-a-service platform Thought Machine, but has set expanding its tech capabilities as a key strategic objective.
The group employs more than 70,000 people and operates more than 700 branches across Britain.
Curve is chaired by Lord Fink, the former Man Group chief executive who has become a prolific investor in British technology start-ups.
When he was appointed to the role in January, he said: “Working alongside Curve as an investor, I have had a ringside seat to the company’s unassailable and well-earned rise.
“Beginning as a card which combines all your cards into one, to the all-encompassing digital wallet it has evolved into, Curve offers a transformative financial management experience to its users.
“I am proud to have been part of the journey so far, and welcome the chance to support the company through its next, very significant period of growth.”
IDC Ventures, one of the investors in Curve’s Series C funding round, said at the time of its last major fundraising: “Thanks to their unique technology… they have the capability to intercept the transaction and supercharge the customer experience, with its Double Dip Rewards, [and] eliminating nasty hidden fees.
“And they do it seamlessly, without any need for the customer to change the cards they pay with.”
News of the talks between Lloyds and Curve comes days before Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, is expected to outline plans to bolster Britain’s fintech sector by endorsing a concierge service to match start-ups with investors.
Lloyds declined to comment, while Curve has been contacted for comment.
Union leaders are demanding no eleventh-hour retreat by the government on workers’ rights now their champion Angela Rayner is no longer in the cabinet.
As delegates gather in Brighton for the TUC’s annual conference, the movement’s leadership is claiming four million people – one in eight of the UK workforce – are in “pervasive” insecure work.
And union bosses are urging the government to stand firm and reject attempts by Tories and Liberal Democrats to weaken the former deputy prime minister’s Employment Rights Bill in its final stages in parliament.
The TUC’s general secretary, Paul Nowak, has claimed Ms Rayner, who resigned on Friday over unpaid stamp duty on a seaside flat, was a victim of misogyny and was being hounded out by right-wing politicians and right-wing media.
Image: Paul Nowak believes Angela Rayner was a victim of misogyny
As well as Ms Rayner leaving the government, the other minister driving the bill through parliament, Jonathan Reynolds, was demoted in Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet reshuffle from the senior post of business secretary to chief whip.
Until last week, Ms Rayner had been expected to deliver the keynote Labour Party speech at the TUC on Tuesday, but it emerged midweek that the education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, would be the speaker.
However, in Friday’s reshuffle she lost responsibility for adult skills – a key issue for the unions – to the new work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden, who will now head a new, beefed-up super-ministry promoting growth.
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And ironically, the TUC conference in Brighton is taking place less than two miles from the luxury seaside flat in Hove, on which Ms Rayner’s avoidance of £40,000 in stamp duty led to her resignation as deputy PM, housing secretary and Labour deputy leader.
Just before parliament’s summer recess, the House of Lords backed by 304 votes to 160 a Tory-led amendment to Ms Rayner’s bill to reduce the qualifying period for unfair dismissal claims from two years to six months, rather than from day one, as proposed by Ms Rayner.
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The rise and fall of Angela Rayner
Third reading of the bill in the Lords was last Wednesday, the day of Ms Rayner’s Sky News confession, and the bill is now set for parliamentary ping-pong, assuming the government overturns the Lords’ amendments in the Commons.
But in a pre-conference interview with Sky News, TUC chief and Rayner supporter Mr Nowak demanded no diluting of her bill, which also includes banning zero hours contracts which exploit workers and fire and rehire.
“We are now at a crucial stage in the delivery of the Employment Rights Bill, just weeks away from Royal Assent,” said Mr Nowak. “And our clear message to the government will be to deliver the bill and deliver it in full.
“Ignore the amendments from the unelected peers, Tory and Lib Dem peers in the House of Lords, that are aimed at gutting the legislation, weakening workers’ rights.
“Stand with the British public, deliver decent employment rights. That’s important in workplaces up and down the country, but it’s important because these are proposals that are popular with the British public as well.”
Image: Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson will be making a speech at the TUC’s conference
The TUC says its analysis shows low-paid jobs in occupations such as the care, leisure and service sectors account for 77% of the increase in insecure jobs since 2011.
Black and ethnic minority ethnic workers account for 70% of the explosion in insecure work, according to the TUC, and southwest England and Yorkshire and Humber are insecure work hotspots.
Mr Nowak told Sky News: “We’ve got well over a million people now on zero-hours contracts. We’ve got millions of people who don’t have sick pay from day one and 70% of the kids who live in poverty have parents who go out to work.
“The government is absolutely right to be focused on making work pay. And the Employment Rights Bill is about putting more money in the pockets of working people, giving people more security at work.
“That’s good for workers, but it’s also good for good employers as well, so they’re not undercut by the cowboys.”
“Angela Rayner is playing a really important role in government and I wouldn’t want to see her hounded out of an important role by right-wing politicians and the right-wing media, who frankly can’t handle the fact that a working-class woman is our deputy prime minister.”