Xi wanted China to be at the tech frontier. 5 years on, tensions with the U.S. have dented that goal
Chinese President Xi Jinping proposing a toast at the welcome banquet for leaders attending the Belt and Road Forum at the Great Hall of the People on April 26, 2019 in Beijing, China.
Nicolas Asfouri | Getty Images
Xi Jinping once declared China should “prioritize innovation” and be on the “cutting-edge (of) frontier technologies, modern engineering technologies, and disruptive technologies.”
Since that speech in 2017, Beijing has spoken about technologies it wants to boost its prowess in, ranging from artificial intelligence to 5G technology and semiconductors.
Five years since Xi’s address at the Communist Party of China’s last National Congress, the global reality for the world’s second-largest economy has transformed. It comes amid an ongoing trade war with the U.S., challenges from Covid and a change in political direction at home that have hurt some of Beijing’s goals.
On Sunday, the 20th National Congress — held once every five years — will begin in Beijing. The high-level meeting is expected to pave the way for Xi to carry on as head of the Communist Party for an unprecedented third five-year term.
Xi will take stock of China’s achievements in science and technology, which have yielded mixed results.
“I agree it is a mixed bag,” Charles Mok, visiting scholar at the Global Digital Policy Incubator at Stanford University.
He said China sets “lofty” goals as it targets to be the best, but “they are limited politically and ideologically in terms of the strategies to reach them.”
Private tech enterprises are faltering under stricter regulation and a slowing economy. China is far from self-sufficient in semiconductors, a task made harder by recent U.S. export controls. Censorship on the mainland has tightened as well.
But China has made some notable advancements in areas such as 5G and space travel.
U.S.-China tech war
“It would seem that Xi underestimated the challenges China faced in overcoming its reliance on foreign, mostly U.S. firms…”
Paul Triolo
technology policy lead, Albright Stonebridge
Zero Covid
Another unforeseen event during the last five years is the outbreak of Covid, which originated in China and spread across the world.
While many countries dealt with the initial waves of the virus, they relied on vaccines and masking measures to eventually open up their economies after prolonged lockdowns and border closures.
China, however, has stuck to a policy of zero Covid, which involved locking down entire cities, including the major metropolis of Shanghai.
Semiconductor self-sufficiency
Beijing put a lot of focus on self-sufficiency in various areas of technology, but especially on semiconductors. The drive to boost China’s domestic chip industry was given further impetus as the trade war began.
In its its five-year development plan, the 14th of its kind, Beijing said it would make “science and technology self-reliance and self-improvement a strategic pillar for national development.”
One area it hoped to do so was in semiconductors.
But a number of restrictions by the U.S. has put a dent in those ambitions.
“It would seem that Xi underestimated the challenges China faced in overcoming its reliance on foreign, mostly U.S. firms, in key ‘core’ or ‘hard’ technologies such as semiconductors,” Paul Triolo, the technology policy lead at consulting firm Albright Stonebridge, told CNBC.
“He also did not account for growing U.S. concern over semiconductors as foundational to key technologies.”
Looking ahead, the latest package of U.S. controls will make a huge dent in China’s technology ambitions.
Paul Triolo
technology policy lead, Albright Stonebridge
Things did not look as “bleak” for China’s semiconductors in 2017 as they do now, Triolo said.
“Looking back, Xi should have redoubled efforts to bolster China’s domestic semiconductor manufacturing equipment sector, but even there, a heavy reliance on inputs such as semiconductors has made it difficult for Chinese firms to reproduce all elements of those complex supply chains.”
The Biden administration unveiled a slew of restrictions last week that aim to cut China off from key chips and manufacturing tools to make those semiconductors. Washington is looking to choke off supply of chips for critical technology areas like artificial intelligence and supercomputing.
Analysts previously told CNBC that this will likely hobble China’s domestic technology industry.
That’s because part of the rules also require certain foreign-made chips that use American tools and software in the design and manufacturing process, to obtain a license before being exported to China.
Chinese domestic chipmakers and design companies still rely heavily on American tools.
Chipmakers — like Taiwanese firm TSMC, the most advanced semiconductor manufacturer in the world —are also dependent on U.S. technology. That means any Chinese company relying on TSMC may be cut off from supply of chips.
Meanwhile, China does not have any domestic equivalent of TSMC. China’s leading chip manufacturer, SMIC, is still generations behind TSMC in its technology. And with the latest U.S. restrictions, it could make it difficult for SMIC to catch up.
So China is still a long way from self-sufficiency in semiconductors, even though Beijing is focusing heavily on it.
“Looking ahead, the latest package of U.S. controls will make a huge dent in China’s technology ambitions, because the curbs on advances semiconductors,” Triolo said. The curbs will “ripple across multiple associated sectors, and make it impossible for Chinese firms to compete in some areas, such as high performance computers, and AI related applications such as autonomous vehicles, that rely on hardware advances to make progress.”
China’s tech crackdown
A major hallmark of Xi’s last five years is how he has transformed China into one of the strictest regulatory regimes globally for technology.
Over the last two years, China’s once free-wheeling and fast-growing tech giants have come under heavy scrutiny.
It began in November 2020 when the $34.5 billion initial public offering of Ant Group, which would have been the biggest in the world, was pulled by regulators.
That sparked several months where regulators moved swiftly to introduce a slew of regulation in areas from antitrust to data protection.
In one of the first regulations of its kind globally, Beijing also passed a law which regulated how tech firms can use recommendation algorithms, underscoring the intense tightening that took place.
Looking back to Xi’s 2017 speech, there were hints that regulation was coming.
“We will provide more and better online content and put in place a system for integrated internet management to ensure a clean cyberspace,” Xi said at that time.
But the pace at which regulations were passed and the scope of the rules took investors off guard, and billions were wiped off the share prices of China’s biggest tech companies — including Alibaba and Tencent — in 2021 and 2022. They have yet to recover from those losses.
Analysts pointed out that even though there were mentions about cleaning up the internet, the swift nature of regulation that subsequently swept across China was unlikely to have been anticipated — even by Xi himself.
“While I believe that in 2017, Xi had absolutely become focused on strengthening platform regulation, I very much doubt that the rapid-fire nature of… [the regulation] was pre-planned,” Kendra Schaefer, partner at Trivium China consultancy, told CNBC.
Five years ago, Xi said the government would “do away with regulations and practices that impede the development of a unified market and fair competition, support the growth of private businesses, and stimulate the vitality of various market entities.”
This is another pledge that appears not to have been met. China’s technology giants are also posting their slowest growth in history, partly due to tighter regulations. Part of the story, analysts say, is about Xi exerting more control over powerful technology businesses that were perceived as a threat to the ruling Communist Party of China.
“It is obvious that they are not supporting the growth of private businesses,” Mok said. “In my view, they have not succeeded.”
“Think of it that they are putting the Party agenda and total control as the top priority … No one can be successful unless the Party is successful in sustaining its dominance and total control.”
China’s successes from 5G to space
Despite the challenges, China has found success in the realm of science and technology since 2017. Space exploration has been a key focus.
In 2020, a Chinese moon mission concluded with its spacecraft returning back to Earth with lunar samples, a first for the country. That same year, China completed its own satellite navigation system called Beidou, a rival to the U.S.-government owned Global Positioning System (GPS).
Last year, China landed an un-crewed spacecraft on Mars and is planning its first crewed mission to the Red Planet in 2033.
China was also one of the leading nations globally to roll out next-generation 5G mobile networks, which promise super-fast speeds and the ability to support new industries like autonomous driving.
In electric vehicles, China has also pushed ahead. The country is the largest electric car market in the world and home to CATL, the world’s largest EV battery maker, which is looking to expanding overseas.
What next for Xi’s tech policy?
The regulatory assault on the domestic technology sector, which has slowed in recent months, will not go away entirely.
Even if regulatory actions are “moving into a new phase” in Xi’s third term, companies like Alibaba and Tencent won’t necessarily see the breakneck growth speeds they’ve seen in the past, Mok said.
“Even if they find their feet, it is not the same ground. They won’t see that growth, because if China’s overall GDP and economy growth is like what people are talking about now for the next several years … then why should they even outperform the whole China market?” Mok said.
Without a doubt, technology will continue to be a key focus for Xi over the coming five years, with a focus on self-sufficiency. China will likely continue to strive for success in areas Beijing deems as “frontier” technologies such as artificial intelligence and chips.
But Xi’s job in tech is now that much harder.
“As the U.S. continues to ratchet up controls in other areas of technology, and squeeze technology investments in China via outbound investment reviews, the overall innovation engine in China, heretofore driven by the private sector, will also begin to sputter, and the government will have to increasingly step in with funding,” Triolo said.
“This is not necessarily a recipe for success, except for manufacturing heavy sectors, but not for advanced semiconductors, software, and AI.”
Elon Musk, Chief Executive Officer of SpaceX and Tesla and owner of X looks on during the Milken Conference 2024 Global Conference Sessions at The Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 6, 2024.
David Swanson | Reuters
The Securities and Exchange Commission has asked a federal judge to sanction Elon Musk if he continues to violate the court’s order to appear for a deposition in a probe of his 2022 Twitter acquisition.
The SEC has been investigating whether Musk or anyone else working with him committed securities fraud in 2022 as the Tesla CEO sold shares in his automaker and shored up a stake in Twitter, ahead of his leveraged buyout of the company now known as X.
In May, the court ordered Musk to appear for a deposition by the financial regulators regarding the Twitter deal.
“Musk has now failed to appear before the SEC twice: first in September 2023, in defiance of a lawful administrative subpoena, and last week, in defiance of a clear court order,” SEC attorney Robin Andrews said in the Friday filing.
Andrews asked the judge to consider sanctions should Musk delay further, according to the filing.
“The Court must make clear that Musk’s gamesmanship and delay tactics must cease,” Andrews wrote.
The filing also revealed, in a footnote, that the SEC intends to ask the court to hold Musk in “civil contempt” for canceling a deposition on Sept. 10, giving the agency only a few hours notice that he would not appear. Musk’s cancellation cost the SEC time and money after it sent personnel to Los Angeles to depose him and he didn’t appear for the investigative interview, the agency said.
Musk’s deposition in the probe has been rescheduled for a date in early October at an SEC office, the filing said.
“Without further action by the Court, nothing deters Musk” from “simply failing to show up for that date,” Andrews wrote.
Musk’s attorney, Alex Spiro, a partner at Quinn Emanuel in New York, wrote in a response that “such drastic action would be inappropriate,” adding that the SEC and Musk had agreed rescheduling would be permissible in light of an emergency.
Additionally, Musk and his companies have “cooperated and are cooperating with the SEC in multiple other ongoing investigations,” Spiro wrote.
In a separate, civil lawsuit concerning the same Twitter deal, the Oklahoma Firefighters Pension and Retirement System has sued Musk in a federal court in New York accusing him of deliberately concealing his progressive investments in Twitter and intent to buy out the company.
The pension fund’s attorneys argue that Musk, by failing to clearly disclose his investments in and intentions to buy Twitter, had influenced other shareholders’ decisions and put them at a disadvantage.
Discovery from that case in New York yielded correspondence between an unnamed person at Morgan Stanley, and the executive who manages Musk’s money, Jared Birchall. In the messages, the Morgan Stanley contact wrote in February 2022 that Musk’s Twitter stock-buying strategy was closely held.
“No one knows what is going on and why but you and me,” the person at Morgan Stanley wrote. “Not compliance, not anyone.”
Read the court filing below:
Apple on Friday greeted customers at its stores around the world for the debuts of the iPhone 16, Apple Watch Series 10 and AirPods 4.
The new products were announced at an event earlier this month and have been available for pre-order since Sept. 13. The company lit up the glass cube at its Fifth Avenue Apple Store in New York City, in a nod to the enhanced Siri, which will light up the borders of the new iPhone’s screen when that feature rolls out next month.
Apple’s fresh iPhones mark the company’s latest move into artificial intelligence, with new Apple Intelligence features that will begin to launch in October. The new features will allow customers to rewrite text, remove objects from photos and speak with an improved Siri. The software advancements will only be available on iPhone 16 and last year’s iPhone 15 Pro devices.
A view of Apple’s new iPhone 16 at an Apple Store on the Regent Street in London, United Kingdom on September 20, 2024.
Rasid Necati Aslim | Anadolu | Getty Images
But Apple shares slid on Monday after analyst reports suggested that demand for the latest iPhones was lower than expected. TF Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo said in a note on Monday that first-weekend sales were down about 12% year over year from the iPhone 15 last year. Barclays, JPMorgan and Bank of America also noted shipping times could translate to lighter demand for the more expensive iPhone Pro models compared with last year.
CNBC’s Steve Kovach spoke with CEO Tim Cook outside Apple’s Fifth Avenue store and asked whether sales looked better or worse than last year. “I don’t know yet. It’s only the first hour, so we’ll see,” Cook said.
On Friday, UBS analysts suggested investors shouldn’t overreact to what appears to be lighter sales because that data is also collected by analyzing the wait times for new iPhone models and that those were longer last year due in part to supply chain disruptions.
Apple Store Fifth Avenue in New York
Steve Kovach| CNBC
“Ahead of the iPhone 16 announcement, our analysis suggested that a lack of a killer app and arguably somewhat half-baked introduction of Apple Intelligence would dampen demand,” the UBS analysts wrote. “While we still argue the collection of iPhone/iOS attributes are more evolutionary than revolutionary, we caution that investors not overreact to data that suggests somewhat initial tepid demand.”
The UBS analysts said supply chain disruptions last year “slightly distorted/extended last year’s data,” which led to longer wait times for customers for Pro models. Last year, UBS wrote, customers had a 41-day wait time for some iPhone 15 Pro Max pre-orders compared with a 26-day wait time for the iPhone 16 Pro Max this year.
“Nevertheless, data across all models and regions roughly a week post launch support our view that a super-cycle is not imminent as US and China data on the margin is disappointing relative to last year,” they wrote.
Devices of the new Apple Watch Series 10 model are on display after the presentation at Apple headquarters.
Andrej Sokolow | Picture Alliance | Getty Images
The Apple Watch Series 10 offers a larger screen than that of earlier models. It will support, along with the earlier Series 9, new Sleep Apnea detection, as well as other fresh features. The AirPods 4 offer a refresh with a smaller charging case and an option with noise cancellation.
CNBC reviewed the new iPhone 16 Pro Max and the Apple Watch Series 10 earlier in the week.
— CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Steve Kovach contributed to this report.
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