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More than five million households could see their annual mortgage payments rise by an average of £5,100 between now and the end of 2024, a leading think tank has warned.

In total, mortgage payments are set to rise annually by £26bn over the next two years, according to the Resolution Foundation.

Affected households in London will see the biggest increase, with average payments projected to rise by £8,000 over this period – more than twice the level of the £3,400 increase experienced by households in Wales.

The impact in London will be concentrated, however, as less than a fifth (19%) of households there have a mortgage.

“Households across Britain are currently living through an inflation-driven cost-of-living crisis as pay packets shrink and energy bills rise,” said Lindsay Judge, research director at the Resolution Foundation.

“With almost half of all mortgagor households on course to see their family budgets fall by at least 5% from higher payments, the living standards pain from rising interest rates will be widespread.”

While some homeowners on variable rate deals will see their costs increase immediately, the impact on the majority of mortgaged homeowners, who are on fixed-rate mortgages, will build over the coming years as they move off lower rates on to new deals, the think tank added.

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Mortgages have been one of the many areas thrown into chaos following the government’s mini-budget at the end of September.

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Mortgage burden to hit 80s levels

Average two-year fixed mortgage rate now at highest level since 2008

The number of deals on the market nosedived after former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced his fiscal policy in the House of Commons.

Lenders have gradually been bringing back new deals, but have increased their rates in doing so, with the average two and five-year fixed mortgage rates at their highest levels since 2008, standing at 6.47% and 6.29% respectively.

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On Friday, 3,112 mortgage products were on the market, compared with 3,961 on the day of the mini-budget, according to Moneyfacts.co.uk.

The Resolution Foundation explained that by early 2025, half of all mortgaged households will have seen higher mortgage costs absorb at least 5% of their net income, according to its current projections.

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Mortgages: Your questions answered

Higher interest rates will create ‘winners’ and ‘losers’

Higher income households will face the biggest increases in mortgage costs in cash terms on average, it added, but warned that lower income families will face the biggest rise as a share of their income.

Some households may be able to avoid higher costs by using savings to reduce their mortgage balance, or by downsizing to a less expensive home.

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The think tank also noted that a period of higher interest rates will create “winners” and “losers”, with some people able to benefit from the increased rates, such as retired savers or those who are saving up to buy their first home.

“Regardless of how the future unfolds, it is fair to assume that higher interest rates will cause not only (often serious) problems for a very large number of households, but have significant political ramifications as well,” the foundation stated.

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‘Immediate action’ taken after blueprints of prisons in England and Wales leaked on dark web

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'Immediate action' taken after blueprints of prisons in England and Wales leaked on dark web

“Immediate action” is being taken after blueprints of jail layouts were shared online.

The maps detailing the layouts of prisons in England and Wales were leaked on the dark web over the past fortnight, according to The Times.

The detailed information is said to include the locations of cameras and sensors, prompting fears they could be used to smuggle drugs or weapons into prisons or help inmates plan escapes.

Security officials are now working to identify the source of the leak and who might benefit from the details.

The Ministry of Justice did not disclose which prisons were involved in the breach.

A government spokesperson said in a statement: “We are not going to comment on the specific detail of security matters of this kind, but we are aware of a breach of data to the prison estate and, like with all potential breaches, have taken immediate action to ensure prisons remain secure.”

The leak comes amid a chronic prison overcrowding crisis, which has led to early release schemes and the re-categorising of the security risks of some offenders to ease capacity pressures.

Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood is launching a sentencing review in a bid to ease the crisis.

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Starmer says UK will ‘set out a path’ to raise defence spending to 2.5% in spring

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Starmer says UK will 'set out a path' to raise defence spending to 2.5% in spring

The UK will “set out a path” to lift defence spending to 2.5% of national income in the spring, the prime minister has said, finally offering a timeframe for an announcement on the long-awaited hike after mounting criticism.

Sir Keir Starmer gave the date during a phone call with Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, in the wake of threats by Moscow to target UK and US military facilities following a decision by London and Washington to let Ukraine fire their missiles inside Russia.

There was no clarity though on when the 2.5% level will be achieved. The UK says it currently spends around 2.3% of GDP on defence.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte and  Keir Starmer, during a trilateral meeting in 10 Downing Street.
Pic: PA
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Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Sir Keir Starmer and NATO boss Mark Rutte in October. Pic: PA

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A spokeswoman for Downing Street said that the two men “began by discussing the situation in Ukraine and reiterated the importance of putting the country in the strongest possible position going into the winter”.

They also talked about the deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers to fight alongside Russia.

“The prime minister underscored the need for all NATO countries to step up in support of our collective defence and updated on the government’s progress on the strategic defence review,” the spokeswoman said.

“His government would set out the path to 2.5% in the spring.”

The defence review will also be published in the spring.

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While a date for an announcement on 2.5% will be welcomed by the Ministry of Defence, analysts have long warned that such an increase is still well below the amount that is needed to rebuild the armed forces after decades of decline to meet growing global threats from Russia, an increasingly assertive China, North Korea and Iran.

They say the UK needs to be aiming to hit at least 3% – probably higher.

With Donald Trump returning to the White House, there will be significantly more pressure on the UK and other European NATO allies to accelerate increases in defence spending.

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Man shot dead and another critically injured in Birmingham shooting – as murder suspect arrested

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Man shot dead and another critically injured in Birmingham shooting - as murder suspect arrested

A man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after one man died and another was critically injured in a shooting in Birmingham.

Police were called to Rotton Park Road in Edgbaston, just before 11pm on Friday, to reports that two people had been shot.

One man, in his 20s, was found in a car but was pronounced dead at the scene.

Another man, in his 30s, was found injured at a bus stop, and was taken to hospital where he remains in a critical condition, West Midlands Police added.

Firearms officers arrested a man in his 30s on suspicion of murder just before 12.30am. He remains in custody.

Officers remain on the scene, with road closures in place. The force said reassurance patrols will also be taking place.

Detective Inspector Nick Barnes said: “This is a tragic incident, and we have worked through the night to understand exactly what happened.

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“We’ve already made good progress and arrested a suspect, but I still need to hear from anyone who was in the area that we’ve not already spoken to.

“This happened near the busy junction with City Road and it may be that you’ve got dashcam footage or mobile phone footage from the area just before 11pm.

“We really need to hear from you so that we can build as clear a picture as possible of what happened.”

Officers are urging anyone with information to get in contact, with anonymous tips also taken via Crimestoppers.

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