Tennessee’s new ending, Michigan’s old-school dominance and the best of Week 7
For all of the twists and turns and surprises and upsets the college football season invariably delivers, it’s easy to still assume the final chapters have been prewritten, and in the end, the same heroes will emerge victorious.
Just think what life has been like for Tennessee fans who, through 15 years of futility against Alabama, have seen their SEC brethren win 11 national titles, including six by these Crimson Tide, while the only bit of hardware they’ve scored for themselves was a lone championship of life.
Think of what it must’ve felt like to see Lane Kiffin’s surreal exit and Derek Dooley’s tenure and Butch Jones’ sideline trash can and Jeremy Pruitt’s bags of cash (and also those three days when Greg Schiano was going to be the coach before Twitter nixed the deal) and know that the man on the other side of the field on Saturday had never lost on the Third Saturday of October.
Think of what it must be like to slip into a pair of orange overalls and chug cheap beer on a flotilla and sing “Rocky Top” for the 200th time, only to stare down a scoreboard that shows another blowout loss at the hands of the mighty Tide.
Who, faced with such horror, could still have hope?
And yet, on the 16th try, the story had a new ending.
To see that sea of orange pour onto the field after Tennessee’s 52-49 win on Saturday, razing the goal post and hoisting it in the air in a moment of mass catharsis was part celebration and part exorcism, a shedding of the demons that have made this program one of the most consistent punchlines in college football for the past 16 years.
On Saturday, the joke was on Alabama.
When Tennessee jumped out to a 28-10 lead, it was an emphatic show of strength, serving notice that Alabama was hardly invincible, and Nick Saban wanted to speak to the manager.
0:57
Nick Saban was livid on the sideline after Alabama muffed a punt in the second quarter.
When Alabama roared back in the second half and took a 35-34 lead following a controversial pass interference call, there would’ve been every reason for Tennessee to assume this would be yet another kick in the face, and yet Jalin Hyatt refused to roll over. Instead, he hauled in second-half scores of 60, 78 and 13 yards in a remarkable show of resilience.
When Alabama’s late field-goal try sailed wide right, what remained among the nearly 102,000 in attendance was not resignation but hope.
Bryce Young returned from injury and was dazzling, throwing 455 yards, but when Hendon Hooker delivered a dagger to Bru McCoy with 2 seconds left on the clock, the game-winning field goal was little more than deus ex machina. The tide had turned, and the Tide wouldn’t survive.
Tennessee’s win, in some ways, offered a spark for so many upstarts. As the Volunteers marched toward that game-winning kick, TCU was completing a frenetic comeback to beat Oklahoma State in overtime. Syracuse moved to 6-0 for the first time since the Reagan administration with an emphatic win over NC State and now has a showdown with undefeated Clemson up next. Ole Miss and UCLA are undefeated, too, and either would represent a stark departure from the college football status quo if they can keep winning through the next seven weeks, too.
None of this is to suggest that the kings have been dethroned. Clemson flexed its defensive muscle against Florida State. Georgia demolished Vanderbilt. Michigan and Ohio State again appear to be the class of the Big Ten. Even Alabama remains the clear favorite in the SEC West, and the best Tennessee might hope for is a rematch in Atlanta in December.
But for one Saturday at least — the third Saturday in October, as it were — it felt like there could be a new conquering hero at the end of this story.
And hey, don’t worry too much, Alabama. That coveted championship of life is still up for grabs.
Michigan’s old-school domination
In the Big Ten, Ohio State is a unicorn. It’s a hard-living, fast-driving, take-no-prisoners action flick. The Buckeyes are strobe lights and glow sticks. The rest of the league is a Tupperware party.
Except maybe Michigan.
The Wolverines thumped No. 10 Penn State 41-17 on Saturday, and that makes it hard to lump them into the rest of the Big Ten pack. They’re something different — even if we’re still not quite sure exactly how different. That Michigan was the better team Saturday is unquestionable. That Penn State managed 17 points was a near miracle. The Nittany Lions held the ball for just 18:04, and roughly 17:50 of that time was spent in third-and-long.
Instead, it was the Michigan ground game that offered true fireworks. Donovan Edwards ran for 173. Blake Corum ran for 166. Both had runs of 60-plus yards. It has been a winning formula for the Wolverines to run their monster backs into a brick wall again and again and know that, ultimately, the wall will give up.
And yet, cast against Ohio State’s seemingly unstoppable offense and suddenly rejuvenated D, it’s fair to ask if Michigan’s formula is ultimately good enough to win at the highest level.
Ohio State is dynamic and flashy. Michigan feels a bit like its coach’s preferred pants — not quite formal, not quite casual, completely functional and so bland it’s oddly interesting.
Last year, that was enough. Ohio State’s flash was impressive when it worked and a train wreck when it didn’t. Good or bad, it was interesting.
Michigan could be dull and predictable, but it rarely disappeared in big moments, and that was enough to punch a playoff ticket. And even after that, it was still clear that improvement was needed, and so Jim Harbaugh went through the motions of a QB battle perfectly designed to achieve the desired result. And now with JJ McCarthy, Michigan is again good and reliable and… mostly using the same formula it did a year ago.
To look down the Big Ten standings at teams like Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin or Purdue is to sift through a freezer full of vanilla ice cream. To look at Ohio State is to see a bottomless tub of 31 flavors with sprinkles and hot fudge. And what is Michigan? Not vanilla, clearly. But perhaps French vanilla?
Saturday’s dominance of Penn State was a statement. In the country’s second-richest (and, therefore, second-best) conference, Michigan stands out from the crowd. It is a team that made the College Football Playoff just a year ago, then seemed almost an afterthought all offseason, returned to the field with a plethora of wins against cupcakes that all added up to… what? Even after Saturday, are we ready to include Michigan on the same tier as the Buckeyes?
Perhaps the problem is us. Perhaps we’re fools, constantly dazzled by the shiniest object, and Ohio State polishes its chrome with the best of them. Perhaps we simply cannot appreciate the physical, run-it-down-your-throat-then-keep-running approach of the Wolverines.
After all, the Big Ten is about to cash a $1-billion-a-year TV check in exchange for long field goal drives (15-, 19-, 15- and 14-play efforts in Illinois’ 26-14 win Saturday) and Brian Ferentz ruining nepotism for a generation of spoiled rich kids. Certainly there’s an audience, and perhaps we simply lack the refined palette.
Maybe the takeaway from Michigan’s dominance of Penn State isn’t to suggest that the Wolverines are fun or ready for a showdown with that team down south to decide who makes the playoff. Perhaps all that needs to be said is that Michigan is 7-0, and we’re all going to have to keep watching.
Midseason Awards
We’re seven weeks into the season — the official halfway point — and that means it’s time to take stock of some of the storylines that have defined the 2022 campaign. So, put on your tuxedo t-shirt, pour yourself a tall Miller High Life (the champagne of beers) and settle in for our very formal presentation of the midseason’s best.
Best second-string QB: TCU’s Max Duggan
Could Duggan go from opening the season on the bench to earning an invite to the Heisman ceremony at season’s end? After losing the starting QB job to Chandler Morris, Duggan has emerged as one of the country’s most prolific players, with 16 passing TDs, four more on the ground and just one interception on the season. Saturday, Duggan helped TCU erase a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit against Oklahoma State to win 43-40 in double overtime.
Best renaming of a stadium: JMA Wireless Dome
After years of frigid performances at the Carrier Dome, Syracuse changed the name of its home stadium, and in doing so, changed its fortunes. The Orange thumped NC State 24-9 at the now-JMA Wireless Dome on Saturday, moving to 6-0 for the first time since 1987. Coincidentally, JMA Wireless is also the only company that will provide service for Jim Boeheim’s brick Motorola mobile he first bought in 1987 and still uses. Time is a flat circle.
Best party guest: Sam Pittman
Pittman lectured us on the need to bring top-shelf beverages to parties earlier this year, but BYU is prohibited by the school’s code of conduct from serving up any of Pittman’s favorites. KJ Jefferson returned to action to throw for 367 yards and five touchdowns in a 52-35 win over the Cougars. On the upside, Pittman left a case of O’Douls in visiting locker room because he’s just that good a party guest.
Worst preseason prediction: Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea
Lea said the Commodores would eventually become the best team in America.
Vandy lost to Georgia on Saturday 55-0, as Stetson Bennett IV threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns. There’s still time for Clark to be proven correct, we suppose, but by the time it happens, there’s a decent chance Stetson Bennet V is ready to take over the Bulldogs’ offense.
Best new trend: Firing your coach
Colorado nixed Karl Dorrell on Oct. 2, took a week off, and returned to pick up win No. 1 on Saturday (the last FBS team to get its first win of the year) with a 20-13 overtime victory over Cal. Five teams have axed their coaches so far this season. Before the firings, those teams were a combined 1-15 vs. FBS foes. Since firing their coaches, they’re a far more respectable 7-5. Then look back at teams that parted ways with coaches before October concluded last year, and nearly every one is in a better place, including USC and TCU among the nation’s best teams. So, the evidence is clear. Write a very big check, fire your coach, win a bunch of games. Someone tell Auburn.
Most disappointing twist: Sun Belt Cinderellas
The season began with Appalachian State in the role of America’s favorite Cinderella, but James Madison stole that crown with a Week 4 shocker in Boone. JMU then ran its record to 5-0 and garnered a top-25 ranking, but the Cinderella run came to an end Saturday. Georgia Southern scored with 1:01 to play to take a 45-38 lead then picked off JMU QB Todd Centeio to secure the win. The loss marked both the first of the season for the Dukes, as well as James Madison’s most embarrassing moment in Georgia since the Treaty of Ghent.
Best feel-good story: DJ Uiagalelei’s re-emergence
Perhaps no player in the country took more heat last year than Uiagalelei, who entered the season as a Heisman contender and an NIL darling, starring in a national ad campaign, and finished it with nine TD passes and 10 interceptions. Despite the struggles, Dabo Swinney stuck by his QB this offseason, and Uiagalelei has rewarded that trust by leading the Tigers to a 7-0 start, while accounting for 21 touchdowns on the season, including four in the Tigers’ 34-28 win over Florida State on Saturday. And the truly good thing about all this is that there’s no chance Swinney will rub it in anyone’s face that he was right and everyone else was wrong.
Best team in Mississippi: Jackson State
Ole Miss is 7-0 after beating Auburn 48-34 on Saturday. Still, giving up 34 points to Auburn is actually the same as a loss, so they’re scratched from winning this honor. Meanwhile, Mike Leach’s Mississippi State was demolished by Chris Rodriguez (196 yards and two TDs) and Kentucky, so the Bulldogs are out, too. That leaves Coach Prime’s squad, which may not be SWAC enough for some people’s standards, but after a 48-8 win over Bethune-Cookman in which Shedeur Sanders threw for five TDs, the Tigers get the prize basket, which includes a six-pack of Barq’s root beer and a complementary interview for the soon-to-be-vacant Auburn head-coaching job.
No D for USC
There was a simple formula for Lincoln Riley during his years at Oklahoma: Take a great QB, mix him with some terrific skill position guys, then take away any semblance of a competent defense, and — voila! — you’ve got yourself a team capable of losing by 20 in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff.
Well, the formula might be slightly more complicated at USC.
Yes, Riley has his superstar QB. Caleb Williams was exceptional. And yes, he’s got a ton of talent on offense, from Travis Dye to Mario Williams to Jordan Addison. And yes, he’s still decided it’s defense optional. And against Utah on Saturday, that turned out to be a big problem.
USC jumped out to a 14-0 lead, didn’t trail until the Utes converted a 2-point try with 48 seconds remaining, and yet, it wasn’t enough.
Utah’s final six drives included five touchdowns and a fumble at the USC 3-yard line. The four drives in the second half included 43 plays, 18 minutes, 32 seconds of possession time, six third-down conversions and two fourth-down conversions and a seemingly endless string of self-inflicted wounds by the Trojans’ defense.
Credit certainly goes to Cameron Rising, who came through again and again, including the touchdown run and two-point try to win the game. He threw for 415 yards, ran for 60 and accounted for five touchdowns in the win, while receiver Dalton Kincaid caught 16 balls for 234 yards.
The bad news for USC is that the loss puts them at the bottom of the Pac-12’s top tier, behind UCLA, Oregon and, now, Utah. The good news is, if USC can just expedite its realignment plans, this defense is still plenty good enough to win the Big Ten West.
Heisman Five
1. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker
Late in 2020, Hooker was benched at Virginia Tech and essentially shown the door. Since then, he’s blossomed into one of the most prolific QBs in the country, throwing for 385 yards and five touchdowns on Saturday, and is now deserving of his spot atop the Heisman rankings. And what’s happened to Virginia Tech, you ask? Well, rumor has it the program folded, all records of its existence have been erased by the government, and Frank Beamer and Bud Foster now travel the country in a van solving mysteries.
2. Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud
Ohio State was off this week. Stroud still spent his Saturday making crank calls to Mel Tucker, just to continue to assert his dominance.
3. Alabama QB Bryce Young
It’s almost impossible to overstate just how good Young is, and how much he means to Alabama. But even in a game in which he threw for 455 yards and led the Tide back from down 18, he wasn’t the most impressive QB on the field.
4. USC QB Caleb Williams
The Trojans lost at Utah, but it’s hard to blame Williams. He threw for 381, ran for 57 more, and had five TD passes on the game. USC’s defense, on the other hand, couldn’t get off the field in the second half. Reminder to Lincoln Riley: You need to spend NIL money to get transfers on *both* sides of the ball.
5. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson
UCLA was off Saturday, so Chip Kelly spent the day critiquing the technique of a guy twirling a sign outside a cash-for-gold business in West Hollywood.
Others receiving votes: Max Duggan, Blake Corum and whoever survives film study with Nick Saban on Sunday
Sooners bounce back
Brent Venables finally got a Big 12 win Saturday. It probably felt a bit like getting your dinner free because you finished a 96-ounce steak. Yeah, it’s a win, but there’s bound to be some vomit soon afterward.
With Dillon Gabriel back in the saddle at QB, the Oklahoma offense was exceptional, racking up 701 yards of offense — the Sooners’ most in a Big 12 game since 2018. That’s the good news.
The bad news for Venables, the defensive mastermind, is Oklahoma surrendered 42 points to Kansas, the fourth straight game the Sooners have allowed 40 or more.
This season has served as something like a “Twilight Zone” episode, where Venables rubbed the lamp of some diabolical genie. After a decade leading Clemson’s staunch defense, he finally landed his dream job, returning to Oklahoma as head coach. The cost? His defense will make Jason Bean look like Joe Burrow.
But hey, a win is a win, and Oklahoma now has one in conference play, and no matter what happened last week, at least Sooners fans can still remind Texas that they actually beat Kansas.
Under-the-radar play of the day
Coastal Carolina entered Week 7 as one of just two remaining undefeated teams outside the Power 5. Unfortunately, no one told the Chanticleers’ defense.
Grayson McCall threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, but it was not nearly enough.
Old Dominion running back Blake Watson carried 18 times for 256 yards and three touchdowns, including scoring runs of 25, 58 and 67 yards.
On the 67-yard run that put ODU up 42-21, Watson hits a crowd of Chanticleers defenders, who each stumble and flail like a guy trying to make his way to the bar at Ocean Annie’s at 2 a.m.
0:40
Blake Watson crosses goal line for 67-yard touchdown
The most college football thing to happen Saturday
A quarterback who looks like he played base for Foreigner in the early 1980s threw a touchdown pass to a receiver who looks like he played rhythm guitar for .38 Special on that same tour, then the receiver, Jordan Whittington, celebrated with a really big cow — as one does.
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Jordan Whittington scores the Texas touchdown and celebrates with Bevo the mascot.
Big bets and bad beats
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Iowa State had its share of chances to knock off No. 22 Texas on Saturday, with QB Hunter Dekkers turning the ball over once in the end zone and, on the Cyclones’ final drive, fumbling deep into Texas territory. In the end, Iowa State lost 24-21, but for bettors who had the Cyclones +15.5, it was of little concern. Matt Campbell’s run of success as a touchdown (or more) underdog in Big 12 play continues to be a near lock. Iowa State has now covered in 15 of its last 16 games when a dog of seven points or more in conference play.
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With their 24-9 win over NC State, Syracuse is 6-0, bowl eligible and, with a preseason win total of five, have officially hit the over at the season’s halfway point. Syracuse joins UConn (2.5), Kansas (2.5), Vanderbilt (2.5) and Duke (3) as teams to have already eclipsed preseason predictions.
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It wasn’t just Knoxville where Tennessee fans were celebrating. One BetMGM bettor laid down a cool $100,000 on the Volunteers to win outright at +240. That return will buy a really nice victory cigar.
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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