Tennessee’s new ending, Michigan’s old-school dominance and the best of Week 7
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adminFor all of the twists and turns and surprises and upsets the college football season invariably delivers, it’s easy to still assume the final chapters have been prewritten, and in the end, the same heroes will emerge victorious.
Just think what life has been like for Tennessee fans who, through 15 years of futility against Alabama, have seen their SEC brethren win 11 national titles, including six by these Crimson Tide, while the only bit of hardware they’ve scored for themselves was a lone championship of life.
Think of what it must’ve felt like to see Lane Kiffin’s surreal exit and Derek Dooley’s tenure and Butch Jones’ sideline trash can and Jeremy Pruitt’s bags of cash (and also those three days when Greg Schiano was going to be the coach before Twitter nixed the deal) and know that the man on the other side of the field on Saturday had never lost on the Third Saturday of October.
Think of what it must be like to slip into a pair of orange overalls and chug cheap beer on a flotilla and sing “Rocky Top” for the 200th time, only to stare down a scoreboard that shows another blowout loss at the hands of the mighty Tide.
Who, faced with such horror, could still have hope?
And yet, on the 16th try, the story had a new ending.
To see that sea of orange pour onto the field after Tennessee’s 52-49 win on Saturday, razing the goal post and hoisting it in the air in a moment of mass catharsis was part celebration and part exorcism, a shedding of the demons that have made this program one of the most consistent punchlines in college football for the past 16 years.
On Saturday, the joke was on Alabama.
When Tennessee jumped out to a 28-10 lead, it was an emphatic show of strength, serving notice that Alabama was hardly invincible, and Nick Saban wanted to speak to the manager.
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Nick Saban was livid on the sideline after Alabama muffed a punt in the second quarter.
When Alabama roared back in the second half and took a 35-34 lead following a controversial pass interference call, there would’ve been every reason for Tennessee to assume this would be yet another kick in the face, and yet Jalin Hyatt refused to roll over. Instead, he hauled in second-half scores of 60, 78 and 13 yards in a remarkable show of resilience.
When Alabama’s late field-goal try sailed wide right, what remained among the nearly 102,000 in attendance was not resignation but hope.
Bryce Young returned from injury and was dazzling, throwing 455 yards, but when Hendon Hooker delivered a dagger to Bru McCoy with 2 seconds left on the clock, the game-winning field goal was little more than deus ex machina. The tide had turned, and the Tide wouldn’t survive.
Tennessee’s win, in some ways, offered a spark for so many upstarts. As the Volunteers marched toward that game-winning kick, TCU was completing a frenetic comeback to beat Oklahoma State in overtime. Syracuse moved to 6-0 for the first time since the Reagan administration with an emphatic win over NC State and now has a showdown with undefeated Clemson up next. Ole Miss and UCLA are undefeated, too, and either would represent a stark departure from the college football status quo if they can keep winning through the next seven weeks, too.
None of this is to suggest that the kings have been dethroned. Clemson flexed its defensive muscle against Florida State. Georgia demolished Vanderbilt. Michigan and Ohio State again appear to be the class of the Big Ten. Even Alabama remains the clear favorite in the SEC West, and the best Tennessee might hope for is a rematch in Atlanta in December.
But for one Saturday at least — the third Saturday in October, as it were — it felt like there could be a new conquering hero at the end of this story.
And hey, don’t worry too much, Alabama. That coveted championship of life is still up for grabs.
Michigan’s old-school domination
In the Big Ten, Ohio State is a unicorn. It’s a hard-living, fast-driving, take-no-prisoners action flick. The Buckeyes are strobe lights and glow sticks. The rest of the league is a Tupperware party.
Except maybe Michigan.
The Wolverines thumped No. 10 Penn State 41-17 on Saturday, and that makes it hard to lump them into the rest of the Big Ten pack. They’re something different — even if we’re still not quite sure exactly how different. That Michigan was the better team Saturday is unquestionable. That Penn State managed 17 points was a near miracle. The Nittany Lions held the ball for just 18:04, and roughly 17:50 of that time was spent in third-and-long.
Instead, it was the Michigan ground game that offered true fireworks. Donovan Edwards ran for 173. Blake Corum ran for 166. Both had runs of 60-plus yards. It has been a winning formula for the Wolverines to run their monster backs into a brick wall again and again and know that, ultimately, the wall will give up.
And yet, cast against Ohio State’s seemingly unstoppable offense and suddenly rejuvenated D, it’s fair to ask if Michigan’s formula is ultimately good enough to win at the highest level.
Ohio State is dynamic and flashy. Michigan feels a bit like its coach’s preferred pants — not quite formal, not quite casual, completely functional and so bland it’s oddly interesting.
Last year, that was enough. Ohio State’s flash was impressive when it worked and a train wreck when it didn’t. Good or bad, it was interesting.
Michigan could be dull and predictable, but it rarely disappeared in big moments, and that was enough to punch a playoff ticket. And even after that, it was still clear that improvement was needed, and so Jim Harbaugh went through the motions of a QB battle perfectly designed to achieve the desired result. And now with JJ McCarthy, Michigan is again good and reliable and… mostly using the same formula it did a year ago.
To look down the Big Ten standings at teams like Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin or Purdue is to sift through a freezer full of vanilla ice cream. To look at Ohio State is to see a bottomless tub of 31 flavors with sprinkles and hot fudge. And what is Michigan? Not vanilla, clearly. But perhaps French vanilla?
Saturday’s dominance of Penn State was a statement. In the country’s second-richest (and, therefore, second-best) conference, Michigan stands out from the crowd. It is a team that made the College Football Playoff just a year ago, then seemed almost an afterthought all offseason, returned to the field with a plethora of wins against cupcakes that all added up to… what? Even after Saturday, are we ready to include Michigan on the same tier as the Buckeyes?
Perhaps the problem is us. Perhaps we’re fools, constantly dazzled by the shiniest object, and Ohio State polishes its chrome with the best of them. Perhaps we simply cannot appreciate the physical, run-it-down-your-throat-then-keep-running approach of the Wolverines.
After all, the Big Ten is about to cash a $1-billion-a-year TV check in exchange for long field goal drives (15-, 19-, 15- and 14-play efforts in Illinois’ 26-14 win Saturday) and Brian Ferentz ruining nepotism for a generation of spoiled rich kids. Certainly there’s an audience, and perhaps we simply lack the refined palette.
Maybe the takeaway from Michigan’s dominance of Penn State isn’t to suggest that the Wolverines are fun or ready for a showdown with that team down south to decide who makes the playoff. Perhaps all that needs to be said is that Michigan is 7-0, and we’re all going to have to keep watching.
Midseason Awards
We’re seven weeks into the season — the official halfway point — and that means it’s time to take stock of some of the storylines that have defined the 2022 campaign. So, put on your tuxedo t-shirt, pour yourself a tall Miller High Life (the champagne of beers) and settle in for our very formal presentation of the midseason’s best.
Best second-string QB: TCU’s Max Duggan
Could Duggan go from opening the season on the bench to earning an invite to the Heisman ceremony at season’s end? After losing the starting QB job to Chandler Morris, Duggan has emerged as one of the country’s most prolific players, with 16 passing TDs, four more on the ground and just one interception on the season. Saturday, Duggan helped TCU erase a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit against Oklahoma State to win 43-40 in double overtime.
Best renaming of a stadium: JMA Wireless Dome
After years of frigid performances at the Carrier Dome, Syracuse changed the name of its home stadium, and in doing so, changed its fortunes. The Orange thumped NC State 24-9 at the now-JMA Wireless Dome on Saturday, moving to 6-0 for the first time since 1987. Coincidentally, JMA Wireless is also the only company that will provide service for Jim Boeheim’s brick Motorola mobile he first bought in 1987 and still uses. Time is a flat circle.
Best party guest: Sam Pittman
Pittman lectured us on the need to bring top-shelf beverages to parties earlier this year, but BYU is prohibited by the school’s code of conduct from serving up any of Pittman’s favorites. KJ Jefferson returned to action to throw for 367 yards and five touchdowns in a 52-35 win over the Cougars. On the upside, Pittman left a case of O’Douls in visiting locker room because he’s just that good a party guest.
Worst preseason prediction: Vanderbilt coach Clark Lea
Lea said the Commodores would eventually become the best team in America.
Vandy lost to Georgia on Saturday 55-0, as Stetson Bennett IV threw for 289 yards and two touchdowns. There’s still time for Clark to be proven correct, we suppose, but by the time it happens, there’s a decent chance Stetson Bennet V is ready to take over the Bulldogs’ offense.
Best new trend: Firing your coach
Colorado nixed Karl Dorrell on Oct. 2, took a week off, and returned to pick up win No. 1 on Saturday (the last FBS team to get its first win of the year) with a 20-13 overtime victory over Cal. Five teams have axed their coaches so far this season. Before the firings, those teams were a combined 1-15 vs. FBS foes. Since firing their coaches, they’re a far more respectable 7-5. Then look back at teams that parted ways with coaches before October concluded last year, and nearly every one is in a better place, including USC and TCU among the nation’s best teams. So, the evidence is clear. Write a very big check, fire your coach, win a bunch of games. Someone tell Auburn.
Most disappointing twist: Sun Belt Cinderellas
The season began with Appalachian State in the role of America’s favorite Cinderella, but James Madison stole that crown with a Week 4 shocker in Boone. JMU then ran its record to 5-0 and garnered a top-25 ranking, but the Cinderella run came to an end Saturday. Georgia Southern scored with 1:01 to play to take a 45-38 lead then picked off JMU QB Todd Centeio to secure the win. The loss marked both the first of the season for the Dukes, as well as James Madison’s most embarrassing moment in Georgia since the Treaty of Ghent.
Best feel-good story: DJ Uiagalelei’s re-emergence
Perhaps no player in the country took more heat last year than Uiagalelei, who entered the season as a Heisman contender and an NIL darling, starring in a national ad campaign, and finished it with nine TD passes and 10 interceptions. Despite the struggles, Dabo Swinney stuck by his QB this offseason, and Uiagalelei has rewarded that trust by leading the Tigers to a 7-0 start, while accounting for 21 touchdowns on the season, including four in the Tigers’ 34-28 win over Florida State on Saturday. And the truly good thing about all this is that there’s no chance Swinney will rub it in anyone’s face that he was right and everyone else was wrong.
Best team in Mississippi: Jackson State
Ole Miss is 7-0 after beating Auburn 48-34 on Saturday. Still, giving up 34 points to Auburn is actually the same as a loss, so they’re scratched from winning this honor. Meanwhile, Mike Leach’s Mississippi State was demolished by Chris Rodriguez (196 yards and two TDs) and Kentucky, so the Bulldogs are out, too. That leaves Coach Prime’s squad, which may not be SWAC enough for some people’s standards, but after a 48-8 win over Bethune-Cookman in which Shedeur Sanders threw for five TDs, the Tigers get the prize basket, which includes a six-pack of Barq’s root beer and a complementary interview for the soon-to-be-vacant Auburn head-coaching job.
No D for USC
There was a simple formula for Lincoln Riley during his years at Oklahoma: Take a great QB, mix him with some terrific skill position guys, then take away any semblance of a competent defense, and — voila! — you’ve got yourself a team capable of losing by 20 in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff.
Well, the formula might be slightly more complicated at USC.
Yes, Riley has his superstar QB. Caleb Williams was exceptional. And yes, he’s got a ton of talent on offense, from Travis Dye to Mario Williams to Jordan Addison. And yes, he’s still decided it’s defense optional. And against Utah on Saturday, that turned out to be a big problem.
USC jumped out to a 14-0 lead, didn’t trail until the Utes converted a 2-point try with 48 seconds remaining, and yet, it wasn’t enough.
Utah’s final six drives included five touchdowns and a fumble at the USC 3-yard line. The four drives in the second half included 43 plays, 18 minutes, 32 seconds of possession time, six third-down conversions and two fourth-down conversions and a seemingly endless string of self-inflicted wounds by the Trojans’ defense.
Credit certainly goes to Cameron Rising, who came through again and again, including the touchdown run and two-point try to win the game. He threw for 415 yards, ran for 60 and accounted for five touchdowns in the win, while receiver Dalton Kincaid caught 16 balls for 234 yards.
The bad news for USC is that the loss puts them at the bottom of the Pac-12’s top tier, behind UCLA, Oregon and, now, Utah. The good news is, if USC can just expedite its realignment plans, this defense is still plenty good enough to win the Big Ten West.
Heisman Five
1. Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker
Late in 2020, Hooker was benched at Virginia Tech and essentially shown the door. Since then, he’s blossomed into one of the most prolific QBs in the country, throwing for 385 yards and five touchdowns on Saturday, and is now deserving of his spot atop the Heisman rankings. And what’s happened to Virginia Tech, you ask? Well, rumor has it the program folded, all records of its existence have been erased by the government, and Frank Beamer and Bud Foster now travel the country in a van solving mysteries.
2. Ohio State QB C.J. Stroud
Ohio State was off this week. Stroud still spent his Saturday making crank calls to Mel Tucker, just to continue to assert his dominance.
3. Alabama QB Bryce Young
It’s almost impossible to overstate just how good Young is, and how much he means to Alabama. But even in a game in which he threw for 455 yards and led the Tide back from down 18, he wasn’t the most impressive QB on the field.
4. USC QB Caleb Williams
The Trojans lost at Utah, but it’s hard to blame Williams. He threw for 381, ran for 57 more, and had five TD passes on the game. USC’s defense, on the other hand, couldn’t get off the field in the second half. Reminder to Lincoln Riley: You need to spend NIL money to get transfers on *both* sides of the ball.
5. UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson
UCLA was off Saturday, so Chip Kelly spent the day critiquing the technique of a guy twirling a sign outside a cash-for-gold business in West Hollywood.
Others receiving votes: Max Duggan, Blake Corum and whoever survives film study with Nick Saban on Sunday
Sooners bounce back
Brent Venables finally got a Big 12 win Saturday. It probably felt a bit like getting your dinner free because you finished a 96-ounce steak. Yeah, it’s a win, but there’s bound to be some vomit soon afterward.
With Dillon Gabriel back in the saddle at QB, the Oklahoma offense was exceptional, racking up 701 yards of offense — the Sooners’ most in a Big 12 game since 2018. That’s the good news.
The bad news for Venables, the defensive mastermind, is Oklahoma surrendered 42 points to Kansas, the fourth straight game the Sooners have allowed 40 or more.
This season has served as something like a “Twilight Zone” episode, where Venables rubbed the lamp of some diabolical genie. After a decade leading Clemson’s staunch defense, he finally landed his dream job, returning to Oklahoma as head coach. The cost? His defense will make Jason Bean look like Joe Burrow.
But hey, a win is a win, and Oklahoma now has one in conference play, and no matter what happened last week, at least Sooners fans can still remind Texas that they actually beat Kansas.
Under-the-radar play of the day
Coastal Carolina entered Week 7 as one of just two remaining undefeated teams outside the Power 5. Unfortunately, no one told the Chanticleers’ defense.
Grayson McCall threw for 358 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, but it was not nearly enough.
Old Dominion running back Blake Watson carried 18 times for 256 yards and three touchdowns, including scoring runs of 25, 58 and 67 yards.
On the 67-yard run that put ODU up 42-21, Watson hits a crowd of Chanticleers defenders, who each stumble and flail like a guy trying to make his way to the bar at Ocean Annie’s at 2 a.m.
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Blake Watson crosses goal line for 67-yard touchdown
The most college football thing to happen Saturday
A quarterback who looks like he played base for Foreigner in the early 1980s threw a touchdown pass to a receiver who looks like he played rhythm guitar for .38 Special on that same tour, then the receiver, Jordan Whittington, celebrated with a really big cow — as one does.
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Jordan Whittington scores the Texas touchdown and celebrates with Bevo the mascot.
Big bets and bad beats
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Iowa State had its share of chances to knock off No. 22 Texas on Saturday, with QB Hunter Dekkers turning the ball over once in the end zone and, on the Cyclones’ final drive, fumbling deep into Texas territory. In the end, Iowa State lost 24-21, but for bettors who had the Cyclones +15.5, it was of little concern. Matt Campbell’s run of success as a touchdown (or more) underdog in Big 12 play continues to be a near lock. Iowa State has now covered in 15 of its last 16 games when a dog of seven points or more in conference play.
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With their 24-9 win over NC State, Syracuse is 6-0, bowl eligible and, with a preseason win total of five, have officially hit the over at the season’s halfway point. Syracuse joins UConn (2.5), Kansas (2.5), Vanderbilt (2.5) and Duke (3) as teams to have already eclipsed preseason predictions.
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It wasn’t just Knoxville where Tennessee fans were celebrating. One BetMGM bettor laid down a cool $100,000 on the Volunteers to win outright at +240. That return will buy a really nice victory cigar.
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Sports
CFP Bubble Watch after Tuesday’s ranking: Who needs a win during Rivalry Week?
Published
3 hours agoon
November 26, 2025By
admin

Miami is inching closer but still needs some help.
With the Hurricanes creeping up to No. 12 on Tuesday night in the College Football Playoff selection committee’s fourth of six rankings, the ACC’s hope of having two teams qualify for the 12-team field is still alive. Time is running out, though, to convince the selection committee they’re better than Notre Dame — and right now a gap remains in spite of the head-to-head win. The ACC champion — even if it’s No. 18 Virginia — is almost certainly guaranteed a spot as one of the five-highest ranked conference champions. That’s evidenced by the fact that five ACC teams are still ranked above No. 24 Tulane, the only representative from a Group of 5 conference. The question is whether Miami can do enough to join the ACC champion as an at-large team with one game remaining, on Saturday at No. 22 Pitt.
Though the Canes have no margin for error and could still use some help above them, they might get it if Ole Miss doesn’t win the Egg Bowl against Mississippi State. No. 6 Oregon jumped one spot above No. 7 Ole Miss, indicating that the Rebels might not recover from a second stumble.
With Rivalry Week on the horizon, there are still plenty of scenarios that can unfold — and hope is still oozing from the bubble.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are in this week’s bracket based on the committee’s fourth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated but have work to do or need help. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the committee’s fourth ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket

SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
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Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either lock up a spot in the SEC championship game with a win against Auburn in the Iron Bowl — or can miss the playoff entirely with a loss to its rival. The debate will come if Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up. The Tide have played the ninth-hardest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their résumé would only be enhanced by facing a top-five opponent in the SEC championship game. A third loss, though, even in a close game to a top-five team, could drop Alabama into a dangerous spot in the top 12 where it might face elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion — or a second Big 12 team.
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First team out: Vanderbilt. The Commodores could stay status quo this week, which means at No. 14 they remain a long shot for an at-large bid. Punctuating their résumé with a win against a ranked Tennessee would be the first step, but they’d also need multiple upsets ahead of them to get serious consideration. It’s conceivable, as Miami can lose at Pitt, Oklahoma can suffer a third loss to LSU, and Alabama can lose the Iron Bowl. None of that would matter, though, without a win in Knoxville.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
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Last team in: Oregon. With the win against USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further solidified its place in the top 10. The win against USC boosted the Ducks’ résumé enough to jump Ole Miss, and the complete performance against another ranked contender answered some questions in the committee meeting room. Oregon now has a 16.5% chance to reach the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it must beat Washington and it needs Michigan to defeat Ohio State.
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First team out: Michigan. The No. 15 Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten championship game with a win against Ohio State and a loss by Indiana or Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about the head-to-head defeat to USC because the Trojans have three losses and dropped behind the Wolverines to No. 17 in the latest ranking. The loss to No. 8 Oklahoma, though, will probably keep them behind the Sooners for an at-large bid if they both finish with the same record. Nobody in the country, though, will have a better win than Michigan if it beats the Buckeyes for a fifth straight season.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech
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Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win at West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech does that, it should be a lock for the CFP — win or lose in the Big 12 championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify dropping Texas Tech if its second loss is to a top-11 BYU team that it beat handily during the regular season. The Red Raiders would be the only team that could claim a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champs in that scenario.
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First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win against UCF on Saturday. They’d be a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they’re already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They would need multiple upsets to happen above them to stay in consideration as the two-loss Big 12 runner-up.
Still in the mix: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win against Arizona and a BYU loss or a win and losses by both Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will reach the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas and both BYU and Arizona State win and Texas Tech loses.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Miami
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Last team in: Miami. Miami’s chances of reaching the ACC title game are now 14.2% — third best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are both above 80%. That means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through an at-large bid. They must win at Pitt on Saturday, and it helped that the committee ranked the Panthers No. 22 on Tuesday night. Miami’s loss to SMU no longer looks as bad as it initially did after the Mustangs cracked the CFP top 25 at No. 21. Miami is getting some help, but it has also helped itself by winning three straight games by at least 17 points. Saturday at Virginia Tech brought Miami’s first road win outside of its home state, which is something the committee has been awaiting. Miami’s win against Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, and the Canes are within range of the committee revisiting the head-to-head tiebreaker. They’re both in the same conversation as Alabama and BYU. If Miami can win at Pitt, the committee will certainly factor that into its discussion during the fifth ranking. It’s important to remember, though, that head-to-head isn’t the only factor in the room. The entire body of work is considered, and right now, the committee is more impressed by the Irish.
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First team out: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios still left in the ACC, this isn’t one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will clinch a spot in the conference title game. And with No. 21 SMU now one of five ranked teams from the conference, the ACC title game is likely to feature two ranked opponents. The Mustangs have the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (86%) followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest — the latter two of which are above .500. If SMU wins at Cal on Saturday, the Mustangs will clinch a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the committee’s second-highest-ranked ACC team behind Miami in its fourth ranking, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still in the mix: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU. Here’s where you can find your convoluted scenarios. Pitt can get into the ACC championship game with a win and a loss by SMU or UVA. Duke can get in with a win plus losses by two of the following three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so many things to happen it might want to find a church instead of playing Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
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Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish are doing everything right — they’re winning and looking good doing it. If they can seal the deal with what should be a relatively easy win against Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching while the conference championship games unfold and possibly alter the picture. Notre Dame fans should be keeping a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games. If Miami beats Pitt, the committee will compare that common opponent with Notre Dame, which also beat Pitt. They would continue to talk about the head-to-head tiebreaker, but that’s not the final determinant. Both Miami and Notre Dame can earn at-large bids, but if there are two Big 12 teams in, someone currently in the top 10 will have to be excluded.
Group of 5
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Would be in: Tulane. This is where the committee will probably continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chances to reach the playoff. JMU’s schedule is currently ranked No. 123, while North Texas is No. 127, and that has held both of them back in the committee meeting room. Tulane is No. 73 with wins against Duke and Northwestern. The No. 24-ranked Green Wave maintained their spot this week as the committee’s highest-ranked Group of 5 team following the 37-13 win at Temple, their largest margin of victory this season.
Still in the mix: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game. It will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the American are still eligible to play in the conference title game, and multiple tiebreaker scenarios are still looming. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It would clinch with a win if it is the highest-ranked team from the American in the CFP ranking. North Texas would clinch a spot with a win — because Navy was not ahead of Tulane and North Texas in the CFP ranking Tuesday. Navy could clinch a spot with a win and a loss by Tulane or North Texas.

Bracket
Based on the committee’s fourth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
No. 4 Georgia
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Oregon
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Texas Tech winner vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. 6 Oregon winner vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Sports
Week 14 Anger Index: Why Notre Dame deserves the benefit of the doubt
Published
3 hours agoon
November 26, 2025By
admin

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David HaleNov 25, 2025, 08:28 PM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
We don’t talk nearly enough about luck in sports.
It’s only reasonable to want to believe the best team always wins, that the outcome of a game is the reward for a better process, that, in the end, we all get what we deserve.
But then you watch 10 minutes of Florida State football and it’s impossible to deny that there are football gods at work and they can be awfully vengeful.
And so it is that, at this late point in the season, the College Football Playoff rankings still hinge, in no small part, on a botched extra point at the end of Notre Dame-Texas A&M.
We can look back at Miami‘s game against SMU on Nov. 1 — a game that, with 2 minutes to go the Canes had a 90% chance of winning, according to ESPN’s metrics — and consider it a bad loss, then a week later, see Oregon — with less than a 40% chance of beating Iowa with 2 minutes remaining — pull off a comeback and have it constitute a critical point on the Ducks’ résumé.
Alabama nearly doubled Oklahoma‘s yardage but lost, Ole Miss gave up 526 yards to Arkansas and won, Georgia has trailed in the second half five times this year but has just one loss to show for it.
These things happen, and while there’s clearly valuable data involved — Georgia wins those games, because the Dawgs are really good — any time we’re discussing a one-game sample size, there’s room for ample debate over what matters and what doesn’t.
The committee’s job is to counterbalance the fickleness of luck with a calculated, rational, repeatable process of evaluation that, if applied again and again by dozens of different people, would largely yield the same results; something akin to scientific testing, a way to filter out the noise and get to what matters most. “The process,” as everyone from Nick Saban to Michael Lombardi have called it.
And yet, it’s hard to say exactly what the committee’s process really is. Even when it’s explained — Miami isn’t in the same bucket as Notre Dame, so they can’t be compared directly, for example — the logic often crumbles under the slightest bit of scrutiny.
Instead, the committee has mostly relied on its own luck, and each year, by the time the final rankings are revealed, the 13 games played on the field provide enough clarity that most reasonable people will proclaim the committee got things right, save for the occasional reminder to Florida State that, yes, the football gods are not Seminoles fans.
This year though, it’s increasingly likely the committee’s luck could run out.
We have one full weekend of games left. There are reasonably 16 teams who’ll make a case as to why they should earn one of the seven coveted at-large spots. Without a little luck in Week 14, the committee’s going to have some incredibly hard choices to make.
And that means we’ve got plenty of outrage left to send the committee’s way.

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This past week seemed to be the apex of the biggest rankings debate: Notre Dame or Miami?
The argument here is easy to understand. The committee has consistently had the Irish well ahead of the Hurricanes, despite both teams having the same record and Miami holding a head-to-head win.
But you know what’s even easier to understand? BYU has a better record than both.
In fact, let’s look at some résumés.
Team A: Best win vs. SP+ No. 19, next best vs. No. 21. Loss to SP+ No. 2. Two wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 5 strength of record.
Team B: Best win vs. SP+ No. 9, next best vs. No. 25. Loss to SP+ No. 3. Six wins vs. teams 7-4 or better. No. 6 strength of record.
Both look like pretty obvious playoff teams, right?
Well Team A just moved up a spot in the rankings, seems assured not just of making the playoff, but of hosting a home game, and no one seems to be arguing about its spot in the rankings. That’s Oregon at No. 6.
Team B would currently be our first team out, a team with a résumé that shows equally impressive wins, an equally understandable loss and a far more impressive breadth of quality opponents. And yet, no one seems to be arguing much about BYU’s spot in the rankings either.
Why is it that the Cougars — the forgotten one-loss team with a higher ranked win than Oregon or Notre Dame and a better loss than Alabama or Oklahoma — sit at No. 11 and no one seems to care?
We get the frustration over Miami’s placement. There’s plenty of anger to go around. But don’t let BYU get lost in the shuffle. The Cougars’ résumé holds up against all the two-loss teams and is on par with Oregon and Ole Miss. Somehow, the committee — and nearly everyone else outside of Provo — seems to be ignoring it.
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Wait, are we really defending Notre Dame here? Hey, somebody’s got to do it.
Let’s take a closer look at the Irish, who’ve become the punching bag for every fan frustrated with the committee’s rankings.
Right now, Notre Dame is effectively the golfer who wrapped up his round early and is waiting in the clubhouse, hoping no one else makes too many birdies. The Irish are safely in the field, and only a road trip to lowly Stanford is left on the docket.
But as the committee’s rankings hold steady week after week, there has been more and more time to debate the merits of Notre Dame’s résumé, and when we reach the end of championship week, it’s hard to ignore that one team aiming for a playoff bid doesn’t actually play in a conference.
So, does Notre Dame really deserve the benefit of the doubt?
In short: Heck yeah.
The Irish have five wins against bowl-eligible opponents — more than Georgia, Ole Miss, Vanderbilt or Texas Tech.
Both of Notre Dame’s losses were one-possession affairs against top-12 opponents. The loss to Texas A&M came down to a fluke occurrence, as the Irish flubbed a point after try.
Notre Dame’s game control — about as good an estimation as we have for the eye test — puts the Irish ahead of everyone but Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech and Oregon.
In four games since Nov. 1, Notre Dame has beaten its opposition by a combined score of 181-42, lambasting Syracuse so badly in Week 13 that Fran Brown might not shower for a month.
Look at any of the underlying metrics — explosive play rates, defensive stop rates, Jeremiyah Love being awesome rates — and Notre Dame is as good as anyone in the country.
So yes, we get the more logical debates about Miami’s Week 1 win or Alabama’s superior schedule, but the bottom line is, outside of Ohio State, there’s probably no team in the country playing better, more balanced football than the Irish. That probably shouldn’t be the only consideration, but as we debate which teams ought to be docked a few points in the rankings, Notre Dame probably shouldn’t be at the front of the line either.
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Yes, Miami has a good argument against the committee’s treatment of the Hurricanes. The committee, too, seems to acknowledge under-appreciating Miami early on, and is adjusting by slowly moving the Canes up one spot each week, hoping that’ll be enough to appease the masses.
But here’s a question: What if Miami’s real beef should be with the ACC, not with the committee?
For each of the past two years, there has been widespread consensus that the ACC’s best team is Miami. But, barring some truly high-level chaos in Week 14 — something the ACC is apt to provide — the Canes won’t be playing for a conference championship again.
When leagues were smaller and had two divisions, the idea of pitting one division champ against the other made intuitive sense. But with expansion and the end of division play, what we’ve gotten is wildly diverse scheduling and the potential for confounding tiebreakers to ultimately decide which two teams get to play for a conference title.
In the Big Ten and SEC, where winning the league isn’t a do-or-die proposition, that’s fine. In the ACC, where only the champion might get a playoff bid and there’s a real chance that six different teams will tie atop the conference with a 6-2 league record — well, that’s a big issue.
So, why not just tweak the rules of how a conference championship game is seeded? What if one spot goes to the team with the best conference record and the other spot goes to the next highest ranked team? Doing so would ensure both the most deserving team (best record) and best team (highest ranked) got a shot, and it would’ve ended any concerns about the ACC being passed by multiple Group of 5 leagues, because a mediocre team like Duke would’ve had no shot at winning the league.
The ACC has bent over backward to try to find unique solutions to potentially existential problems in recent years. This is a change that would be forward thinking, easy and beneficial to the league’s playoff prospects.
It just won’t come in time to save Miami in 2025.
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Remember last week when Tulane was also No. 24, just ahead of Arizona State, and behind Illinois, Houston and Missouri, who all lost? It might seem reasonable, given that precondition, that Tulane would then move up, say, three spots or so, while remaining a tick ahead of Arizona State.
But no, a week later, the Green Wave still check in at No. 24, a spot the committee seems to have set aside as “Where we put a Group of 5 team,” like the junk drawer in your kitchen that holds packing tape and birthday candles and those weird scented oils your mother-in-law ordered for you off TV — a placeholder for all the stuff you don’t know what else to do with.
In the big picture, it probably doesn’t matter. As long as Tulane stays ahead of its compatriots in the Group of 5 — winning the American, out-ranking James Madison — the Green Wave will make the playoff. And perhaps that’s all that matters.
But of the teams that jumped Tulane in the rankings this week are Arizona State — still with a chance to win the Big 12 — and Pitt and SMU, who have decent odds of making the ACC title game. Georgia Tech, despite a miserable loss to Pitt, also held firm ahead of the Green Wave.
A year ago, the ACC’s championship game implosion earned Clemson a bid into the playoff, but also shifted the ACC behind Boise State, the best Group of 5 champion, allowing the Broncos to land a bye. The stakes have changed for 2025-26 — the top four conference champs are no longer guaranteed an off week — but that doesn’t mean Tulane should be fine settling for the 12-seed either.
Tulane’s strength of record is ahead of Georgia Tech, Virginia and Pitt. If one of those teams claims the ACC’s playoff berth, what’s the rationale for putting them ahead of the Green Wave? And the difference between the No. 11 seed and the No. 12 seed might be about traveling to the SEC or the Big 12 for a playoff game.
The Group of 5 has largely been set to the side by this committee all year, so none of this comes as a surprise. But Tulane — or JMU or Navy or North Texas or San Diego State — all deserve to be judged on the merits of their résumés, not by which conference they’re affiliated with.
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The bottom of the top 25 seems to be prime real estate for the ACC, but the one ACC team who might most deserve one of those coveted spots between 20 and 25 is nowhere to be found.
Wake Forest has the same record as SMU, and it beat the Mustangs head-to-head.
Wake Forest has a better overall résumé than Georgia Tech, and it only lost to the Yellow Jackets (in overtime) as a result of an officiating call the ACC later apologized for.
Wake Forest is a game behind Virginia in the standings, and the Deacons have a head-to-head win over the No. 18 Cavaliers, too.
Look, Wake Forest doesn’t ask for much. The Deacons are like the friend who’s always willing to pick you up from the airport, only better because they’ll probably bring along a box of Krispy Kreme. So if some ACC team that no one respects is going to be ranked 23rd regardless, why not Wake? Because the next time a committee member’s connection gets delayed out of CLT, it won’t be Pitt offering to pick them up and give them an air mattress to crash on. That’s strictly a Wake Forest thing.
Also angry this week: James Madison Dukes (10-1, unranked), North Texas Mean Green (10-1, unranked and now losing their coach), Navy Midshipmen (8-2, unranked), Utah Utes (9-2, No. 13 after being this week’s team that somehow isn’t as good as Miami anymore), Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2, No. 10 and far too close to the edge of the playoff for comfort)
Sports
Top 5 of CFP unchanged; Ducks leapfrog Ole Miss
Published
3 hours agoon
November 26, 2025By
admin

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Andrea AdelsonNov 25, 2025, 07:59 PM ET
Close- ACC reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2010.
- Graduate of the University of Florida.
Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, Georgia and Texas Tech remained the top five teams in the latest College Football Playoff rankings released Tuesday, while Oregon jumped ahead of Ole Miss after its win over USC.
The Ducks are now No. 6, with Ole Miss at No. 7 — the only change to the top 10 from a week ago. Oklahoma remains at No. 8, followed by Notre Dame at No. 9, Alabama at No. 10 and BYU at No. 11.
“We’ve been waiting for them to have that signature win to really put them where they need to be,” CFP committee chair Hunter Yurachek said of Oregon.
Miami moved ahead of Utah to No. 12, while the Utes dropped to No. 13 following a come-from-behind 51-47 win over 5-6 Kansas State. Despite the head-to-head win over the Irish, the Hurricanes remain three spots behind in the latest rankings as they push for an at-large spot. Vanderbilt stayed at No. 14 while Michigan moved up three spots to No. 15.
Yurachek said Miami and Notre Dame were close enough in the rankings this week to be compared head-to-head, and in the same pool as Alabama and one-loss BYU.
Still, the committee feels Notre Dame “is a complete team,” according to Yurachek, and “deserves to be ranked where they are.”
Texas is No. 16, USC is No. 17, Virginia is No. 18, Tennessee is No. 19 and Arizona State is No. 20.
SMU enters the rankings at No. 21, followed by Pitt, Georgia Tech, Tulane and Arizona.
With Rivalry Week set to begin, there could be major ramifications to the rankings. All eyes will be on the Egg Bowl first, when Ole Miss plays Mississippi State on Friday with a possible CFP berth on the line for the Rebels. Coach Lane Kiffin is expected to announce a decision about his future the following day.
If he opts to leave Ole Miss, making him unavailable to coach the team in the CFP, the selection committee could take his departure into account when ranking the Rebels.
According to CFP protocol, the committee can consider the loss of key players or coaches when ranking teams. In 2023, the committee left Florida State out of the four-team playoff in part because starting quarterback Jordan Travis was out for the season.
“It is in the protocol, but I’m not sure we will have a data point to use that as part of the protocol,” Yurachek said during the ESPN broadcast, referring to the potential departure of Kiffin.
When asked to elaborate by ESPN’s Rece Davis, Yurachek said the committee “will not have seen [Ole Miss] play without a coach,” in reference to Kiffin.
There are other big rivalry games with possible CFP ramifications: No. 3 Texas A&M travels to No. 16 Texas on Friday night. A win for the Aggies clinches a spot in the SEC championship game. Alabama is at Auburn in the Iron Bowl on Saturday, with an SEC championship game appearance at stake.
No. 15 Michigan hosts No. 1 Ohio State as the Wolverines push for a possible spot in the Big Ten title game or as an at-large team. Ohio State has lost four straight to its rival, but a win Saturday would put the Buckeyes into the Big Ten title game.
Meanwhile in the ACC, No. 18 Virginia hosts rival Virginia Tech. A win for the Cavaliers puts them in the ACC championship game.
The five highest-ranked conference champions will make the 12-team field, but there is a tweak to the format this year, as the committee is using a straight seeding model. The top four teams in the final ranking, regardless of conference championship, will receive a first-round bye.
If the playoffs were held today, these would be the first-round matchups: Tulane at Texas Tech, Miami at Oregon, Alabama at Ole Miss and Notre Dame at Oklahoma. Though Miami is slotted in as the highest-ranked ACC team, the Hurricanes have long odds to win the conference title (9%, according to ESPN FPI).
SMU is the current ESPN FPI favorite to win the ACC, at 55%. A win over Cal on Saturday puts the Mustangs into the ACC title game for the second straight season.
There are multiple scenarios for Miami to make the ACC title game, and they all involve a win at No. 22 Pitt plus a combination of losses among the other ACC teams that are currently 6-1 in conference play.
The SEC continues to lead the way with eight ranked teams, while the Big Ten, ACC and Big 12 each have five. Tulane remains the lone Group of 5 representative at No. 24.
The final CFP rankings will be announced Dec. 7, the day after the conference championships. The four first-round games will be played at the home campuses of the higher-seeded teams on Dec. 19 and 20. The four quarterfinal games will be played at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl (Dec. 31), the Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and the Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).
The two semifinal games will take place at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl and the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on Jan. 8 and 9, respectively.
The CFP National Championship game is Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
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