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It looks to be over.

Jeremy Hunt’s decision to not just junk most of Liz Truss’s tax-cutting plan but go further and ditch much of her flagship energy policy signalled the end of not only “Trussonomics”, but potentially the prime minister herself.

When the end comes is unclear: Ms Truss may have been bought some time by the fact the markets settled after the new chancellor threw her plans on the bonfire.

Prime Minister Liz Truss during a press conference in the briefing room at Downing Street, London. Picture date: Friday October 14, 2022.

Hunt goes further than expected – as Tory MPs say it’s ‘when not if’ Truss goes – follow latest on politics

But with her policies demolished and her first choice of chancellor sacked, there’s no firewall left now between the PM and her fuming parliamentary party.

What’s more, the public appear to have made up their minds – Liz Truss has the worst ratings of any prime minister ever, according to polling last week.

She has reached, say many, a point of no return. From cabinet ministers to MPs, the mutterings are ominous: “It can’t go on like this,” one senior figure told me.

More on Liz Truss

And an increasing number of Conservative MPs are willing to make this view public. Five MPs have now called on Ms Truss to resign.

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Do Tory party members back Truss?

‘I’ve just had enough – I don’t think her position is tenable’

In an interview with me earlier today, Sir Charles Walker told me he didn’t think her position was recoverable, as he laid bare some of the anguish that MPs are privately feeling behind closed doors.

“The PM has had a very torrid six weeks. Personally, I don’t think her position is tenable. She would take a different view. But if you read the mood of the parliamentary party, she has lost authority,” he said.

“You can’t lead the party if you don’t have some authority,” the former member of the 1922 executive committee told me.

He also said that the party had been “so catastrophically incompetent”, it was difficult to see the party winning an election.

“I’m just so cross. I’ve just had enough. I think quite a few of my colleagues have had enough. I’ll be dismissed as tired and emotional. Yes, I am tired and emotional. And I am angry. And I’m in the same place as many friends, family, and constituents.”

As for the future of Ms Truss, Sir Charles said the PM would either have to stand down or be forced out, as he predicted there would be a new prime minister by November.

“I think it’s her decision right now. I think if she doesn’t go right now, it will not be her decision. That agency will be taken away from her.”

When I asked Mr Walker how long he thought she had got, he said simply: “A week or two.”

So we move from a question of can she survive to what comes next. A group of former cabinet ministers, now senior backbenchers, are in discussions as to how they might end the Truss regime and what might follow.

“The country is in serious trouble, and we have to get a grip of this,” says one former cabinet minister familiar with the discussions.

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Truss braces for tumultuous week

Hunt, Sunak or Johnson for PM?

Some of the protagonists are plain to see and have been publicly agitating: Treasury select committee chairman, Mel Stride; former cabinet ministers Michael Gove, Grant Shapps, Julian Smith and Mark Harper, but there are plenty more operating in the shadows.

But the divisions that have riven this party remain, and MPs are already split over who should replace Liz Truss.

Two senior party figures tell me one option is to put Jeremy Hunt into the hot seat, but a Rishi Sunak supporter tells me that the role has to go to the runner-up in this summer’s leadership election, who won the support of 137 MPs in the final parliamentary ballot.

Another Sunak supporter points out that it is “Rishi’s policies that are now being implemented by a PM who disavowed them. It is entirely unprecedented”.

But for those in the party – MPs and party members – who backed Boris Johnson, Mr Sunak is an anathema.

“I just don’t think it would work,” says one senior Johnson ally.

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“He brought down Boris Johnson who had an elected mandate, I don’t think people will accept him.”

Instead, these key Johnson supporters want the return of the former PM.

Nadine Dorries went on Twitter on Monday to say the only option is to stick with Liz Truss or bring back the man with the mandate, Boris Johnson.

This is a view shared by others in the party. As another Johnson supporter put it to me: “He’s the one who won the mandate and he’s the only credible option if we want to avoid having a general election in the spring.”

For his part, I hear the former PM is still pretty angry about the way he was brought down, but it is worth remembering there remains a huge chunk of the parliamentary party that would find it near impossible to accept this return.

Ms Truss supporters hope that these divisions at least help buy her time. As one cabinet minister told me today: “The appointment of Jeremy Hunt buys her some space.”

Another told me that the emergency statement and “more settled markets have helped calm nerves”.

And Ms Truss will try to fight back. As she tries to shore up support and sell her U-turn, meetings are being held with parliamentary colleagues, from the One Nation Conservative caucus tonight, to the European Research Group, which represents her main base in the parliamentary party, tomorrow.

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What next for ‘Trussonomics’?

How could Liz Truss be removed from office?

But the PM and her team will know there are various ways that she could be removed from office.

Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the 1922 committee, could visit the prime minister and tell her she no longer commands the support of the parliamentary party. The question is where does he set that threshold?

Confidence votes are typically triggered when 15% of MPs write letters to Sir Graham expressing a view that they want the leader gone, but the new prime minister is protected from a confidence vote for a year.

If enough letters go in, however, that could change. MPs have suggested to me that if 100 or more were submitted, Sir Graham Brady might feel compelled to tap Ms Truss on the shoulder.

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And if she won’t go, the party could change the rules.

Under those scenarios, the prime minister either agrees to stand down – as happened with Theresa May – or is forced out by the parliamentary party under changed rules.

In practice, as Mr Johnson himself put it as he stood down as PM, “once the herd moves, it moves” – if enough MPs and members of government withdraw support, a prime minister simply cannot stay on.

There are no good options for Liz Truss or her party. MPs can sit on their hands and let Jeremy Hunt act as de facto prime minister, or force her out with all the difficulty that entails around succession and the public mandate.

But what is clear now is that the Truss premiership failed, and she cannot lead the Tories into the next general election.

We wait for the herd to move.

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Girl, 12, who died after being found unresponsive at psychiatric unit failed on multiple levels, inquest finds

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Girl, 12, who died after being found unresponsive at psychiatric unit failed on multiple levels, inquest finds

A 12-year-old girl who died after an incident of self-harm was failed on multiple levels, an inquest jury has found.

Warning: This story contains references to self-harm and suicide

Mia Lucas, who died in January 2024, was found unresponsive at an NHS children’s psychiatric unit after developing a rare neurological disorder that had been left undiagnosed.

The jury at Sheffield Coroner’s Court heard the girl was found at the Becton Centre, part of Sheffield Children’s NHS Foundation Trust.

She had been placed there after being sectioned while suffering an “acute psychotic episode” during an assessment at the Queen’s Medical Centre (QMC) in Nottingham.

On Thursday, the jury found that the failure to undertake a lumbar puncture at QMC before her transfer to the Becton Centre “possibly contributed to Mia’s death”.

A lumbar puncture involves a needle being inserted into your lower back to find out if symptoms are caused by a brain or spine condition.

Mia Lucas.
Pic: Family handout/PA
Image:
Mia Lucas.
Pic: Family handout/PA

The jury also said there was a failure at the Becton Centre to respond adequately to Mia’s risk of self-harm.

Professor Marta Cohen told the jury Mia’s cause of death was “compression of the neck” but she had now added that this was caused by “acute psychosis”, which was caused by “autoimmune encephalitis”, an inflammation of the brain that can cause extreme psychiatric symptoms and is treatable.

The autoimmune encephalitis diagnosis emerged during the nine-day inquest after a pathologist revealed she had received new post-mortem results.

The revelation prompted shock in the courtroom and tears from Mia’s family members in the public gallery.

The condition was described as “complex and rare”, according to consultant paediatric neurologist Mike Taylor.

He added that there was a low level of suspicion Mia had it, while being assessed at QMC, and told the court that experts had to consider the very severe treatment side effects, which included death.

Mia’s mother, Chloe Hayes, told Sky News she was unhappy at how the Becton Centre had supervised her daughter.

Mia Lucas (right), with her mother Chloe. Pic: Family handout/PA
Image:
Mia Lucas (right), with her mother Chloe. Pic: Family handout/PA

“All they had to do was watch her. I actually never got told the truth about the attempts that Mia made [to self-harm] until after she died,” she said.

“If I’d have known the truth I wouldn’t have left Mia there. And I think she had so much to live for. I don’t think she knew what she was doing.”

In a statement, Mrs Hayes added that she wanted people to know her daughter’s extreme behaviour was only evident in the final few weeks of her life.

“For the other 12 years, she was a beautiful soul who loved life and loved her family, and that’s how we want her to be remembered,” she said, describing Mia as a “happy, fun, friendly girl who had so much to live for.”

NHS Trusts apologise for Mia’s death

In a statement, Dr Manjeet Shehmar, medical director at Nottingham University Hospitals NHS Trust, offered “heartfelt condolences to Mia’s family for the loss of their daughter”.

She continued: “We accept the coroner’s outcome in court today and apologise to Mia’s family for not identifying autoimmune encephalitis while she was in our care. While this is an incredibly rare condition and initial tests were negative, we recognise that further testing may have had an impact on her future, for which we are truly sorry.”

Dr Shehmar said that in future cases of suspected possible autoimmune encephalitis, a lumbar puncture will be performed.

The trust will also “strengthen training and guidance for staff internally and review current published evidence of acute psychotic episodes in children and young people”.

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Pic: Family handout/PA
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Pic: Family handout/PA

Dr Jeff Perring, executive medical director at Sheffield Children’s NHS Foundation Trust, said: “Our thoughts are with Mia’s family and everyone who is grieving her loss in such tragic circumstances.

“We are deeply sorry for Mia’s death and recognise the profound impact this has had on those who loved her.”

The trust has carried out a thorough review of Mia’s care and made “significant changes” at the Becton Centre, he added.

“We will continue to work with children, young people, their families and carers to listen to, learn and take action from their experiences.

“The inquest has been important to understand fully the circumstances surrounding Mia’s death. We will now carefully reflect on the evidence heard and the coroner’s conclusions to ensure we continue to provide safe and compassionate care.”

Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. Alternatively, you can call Mind’s support line on 0300 102 1234, or NHS on 111.

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Budget 2025 is a big risk for Labour’s election plans

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Budget 2025 is a big risk for Labour's election plans

Day two after a budget is always an important moment.

This is when the nerds and boffins of Britain’s fiscal thinktanks assemble to deliver their snap verdict on the chancellor’s decisions.

The moment is more important than ever when, as was certainly the case this time, the budget is a big one.

So what did the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and the Resolution Foundation make of this year’s budget?

Well, as you’d probably expect, they both fell short of distilling it into a single soundbite, but in broad terms, they both sounded somewhat positive.

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Yes, there were plenty of big provisos. The head of the IFS, Helen Miller, said Labour have broken their manifesto pledge not to raise National Insurance.

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The Resolution Foundation argued that if only the chancellor had raised the basic rate of income tax instead of freezing personal allowances, it would have made the tax rise considerably fairer and more progressive.

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Treasury minister vs Ed Conway

And that’s before one gets into the criticism of some of the other bits and pieces from the red book – the structure of the EV tax, for instance (why doesn’t it try to penalise congestion?), or of the mansion tax (why not just overhaul council tax altogether?).

But for the most part, these closely-followed institutions seemed pretty supportive of this year’s budget – more so, certainly, than they were last year.

Primarily, that’s because while the last budget left only a very thin bit of headroom against Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules, this one was far more cautious, doubling that fiscal insurance policy to just over £21bn.

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Beth Rigby challenges Sir Keir Starmer over the budget

Yet that headroom is dependent on a couple of important factors. First, that the government will hold to its promises to keep spending growth constrained towards the end of the decade. Second, that it will be able to raise all the tax revenues it’s promising in that year.

That, in turn, gets to a deeper issue with the budget. Most of the tough stuff has been put off to the final year of the forecast – namely 2029.

That year, the government will face a squeeze at the very same moment that Britons are all asked to pay more in taxes.

And, critically, that’s the very year Labour is due to face a general election. Does it really plan to fight an election off the back of a contracting economy?

Consider, too, that for all the government’s promises to get living standards growing this parliament, they are currently only forecast to rise at the slowest rate since the 1950s – save for the pandemic and energy price shock period. The economic backdrop, in other words, is hardly rosy.

Still, for the time being, the chancellor has managed to put together a budget that has bolstered her position both in her party and in her job.

Markets remain relatively sanguine – much more so than after Rachel Reeves’s first budget last year – with bond yields lower today than before the event (albeit a little higher than yesterday).

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However, this was a complex budget. And, as with all bits of complex engineering, there remains a distinct possibility of large chunks of the budget failing to work.

But since so much of it isn’t due to kick in for a few years, it may take quite a while before we find out which bits work and which, if any, don’t.

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Man arrested at Manchester airport in connection with attack at Heaton Park synagogue

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Man arrested at Manchester airport in connection with attack at Heaton Park synagogue

A man has been arrested at an airport as part of the investigation into the terrorist attack at a Manchester synagogue.

The 31-year-old was detained at Manchester Airport on suspicion of the commission, preparation and instigation of acts of terrorism after arriving on an inbound flight, police said.

It brings the total number of people arrested in connection with the incident at Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue to seven.

Jihad al Shamie launched the attack at the synagogue in Crumpsall on 2 October, driving his car at worshippers gathering on the Jewish holy day of Yom Kippur, before attacking others with a knife and trying to storm inside.

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Manchester synagogue terrorist: what we know now

Armed police shot al Shamie after he ran towards officers “aggressively” while carrying a knife and what police feared was an explosive device – later identified as a fake.

Worshippers Melvin Cravitz, 66, and Adrian Daulby, 53, were killed, with Mr Daulby being described as a “quiet hero” who leapt from his seat to block the doors of the synagogue as it came under attack.

Adrian Daulby, left, and Melvin Cravitz. Pics: Family handout/Greater Manchester Police
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Adrian Daulby, left, and Melvin Cravitz. Pics: Family handout/Greater Manchester Police

He died from a single gunshot wound to the chest fired by an armed police officer, while father-of-three Mr Cravitz died from multiple knife wounds inflicted by al Shamie, an inquest at Manchester Coroner’s Court heard in October.

The inquests into the deaths of both men have been adjourned until February next year.

Three other men were treated in hospital for serious injuries. Two have since been released, police said on Thursday.

The deadly attack rocked the local community. Pic: PA
Image:
The deadly attack rocked the local community. Pic: PA

An inquest into the death of al Shamie, a Syrian-born UK citizen, heard he was identified by his fingerprints and evidence, including his car, phone and inquiries with his immediate family in the aftermath of the attack.

At the hearing in October, Judge Alexia Durran, the chief coroner of England and Wales, said her provisional findings were that al Shamie died of gunshot wounds.

The Independent Office for Police Conduct found no misconduct in the police response.

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Synagogue attacker died of gunshot wounds

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In a statement on Thursday, Assistant Chief Constable Rob Potts, from Counter Terrorism Policing North West, said: “The loved ones of Mr Daulby and Mr Cravitz have been updated on this development, as have those who were seriously injured in the attack.

“Our investigation is continuing, and I would once again appeal for anyone with information that they think could assist our enquiries to please come forward.”

Police also said a 30-year-old man arrested on 9 October on suspicion of failing to disclose information contrary to S38B of the Terrorism Act 2000 remains on bail.

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