Pound rebounds and government borrowing costs fall as Hunt fiscal statement looms
The pound and UK government bond yields have recovered in anticipation of a key statement from the new chancellor tasked with sorting out the fallout from the government’s disastrous mini-budget.
Sterling had fallen to a record low against the dollar at the end of September, after the short-lived then chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled the biggest programme of tax cuts for 50 years.
Mr Kwarteng, who was sacked on Friday after just 38 days in the job, paid the price for a giveaway that called into question the government’s economic credibility on financial markets.
The mini-budget led not just to a collapse in the value of the pound, but also prompted a surge in borrowing costs – forcing an unprecedented intervention by the Bank of England (BoE).
However, following the prime minister’s announcement on Friday that Mr Kwarteng had been sacked and that corporation tax would rise to 25% from April next year instead of being kept at 19%, there was a partial recovery for the UK currency and bond yields.
Mr Kwarteng’s replacement, former foreign and health secretary Jeremy Hunt, has since promised to win back the confidence of the financial markets by fully accounting for the government’s tax and spending plans.
Sterling gained 1.1% to hit $1.1294 on Monday at one stage and also made strides versus the euro when the Treasury revealed that Mr Hunt would deliver key parts of a medium-term plan later on Monday in support of “fiscal sustainability”.
The statement – released before UK financial markets opened – added that Mr Hunt met the BoE governor Andrew Bailey and the head of the Debt Management Office on Sunday night to brief them on the plans.
There would be a select few announcements brought forward from the medium-term fiscal plan that is due to be revealed on 31 October.
The bond markets also suggested an easing of the recent pressure, given additional concerns in some quarters after the BoE on Friday concluded its emergency gilt market support on Friday.
The Bank issued its own statement ahead of the open to say that its operations, aimed at helping pension funds battling higher collateral demands, had enabled a “significant increase in the resilience of the sector”.
It reiterated that other liquidity options remained available, if needed, to ensure smooth financing.
Any rises in government borrowing costs, through a gilt yield rise, would have reflected additional jitters.
‘Unruly pupils are still scheming to oust the beleaguered head’
But there was a downwards shift, with both the UK 20 and 30 year yields falling by more than 30 basis points in early trading.
CHANCELLOR SECURES SOME BREATHING SPACE
When markets closed on Friday, after a dramatic day that saw a chancellor sacked and a totemic economic policy junked, the verdict was troubling:
A sell off UK gilts had gathered pace before, during and after the Prime Minister’s press conference, and the closing bell could not come fast enough.
After Jeremy Hunt spent the weekend signalling a dramatic change in course to reassure the investors on whom confidence in the UK economy rests, the Treasury was plainly not going to take any chances on Monday morning.
That explains the pre-dawn announcement that the new chancellor would be bringing forward U-turns on Kwasi Kwarteng’s calamitous mini-budget.
The aim was to secure breathing space, a stay of execution from markets that could, had they continued to sense vulnerability, deepened the crisis and ended the fiscal repositioning before it began.
The need was all the more acute as this was the first Monday in a fortnight when the Bank of England was not acting as backstop to the gilt markets, its emergency intervention having been withdrawn on Friday, in part triggering the political meltdown that ended the week.
The response was precisely the one the Treasury and Downing Street wanted to see; the first move of UK gilt yields, a measure of the effective cost of Government borrowing, was down.
Yields on 10, 20 and 30-year bonds all moved down as trading began in London at 8am, a trend that if it lasts between now and 31st October, when the Office for Budget Responsibility delivers its calculation of the state of the public finances, has immense political and practical implications.
The gilt markets matter not just because they are an expression of confidence in a nation’s creditworthiness. Government bonds are the mechanism through which states borrow, and the less faith there is in your plan, the more it costs.
And those borrowing costs are central to the calculations the Treasury and the OBR are making. The UK has £2.4trn of debt and under the Truss plans was going to take on tens of billions more to fund tax cuts.
With market confidence evaporating (and gilt yields rising) the cost of that borrowing, old and new, rose. If yields can be brought down the cost of borrowing will fall, cutting billions from one side of the government’s balance sheet, which could in return reduce the need for cuts.
The next hours and days will be pivotal.
Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said other risk factors remained at play despite the initial recovery.
”New chancellor Jeremy Hunt has the air of a troubleshooting teacher brought in to turn around a failing school and faces his first big presentation test today with an emergency budget plan wheeled out to try and calm financial markets.
“This is all part of his charm offensive to instil confidence in the government’s ability to be fiscally responsible, but behind him unruly pupils are still scheming to oust the beleaguered head,” she wrote.
Can Truss remain PM?
It reflects a renewed focus on whether Ms Truss, the architect of the government’s initial economic strategy, can remain in the job.
A Tory MP told Sky News: “The idea that the prime minister can just scapegoat her chancellor and move on is deluded.
“This is her vision. She signed off on every detail and she defended it.”
The Conservative Party is now on its fifth chancellor in the past three years – Mr Hunt, Mr Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid.
Water company United Utilities has reported hundreds of millions in profit as it seeks to further increase customer bills.
The utility serving seven million customers in the northwest of England recorded £335.7m in underlying operating profits for the first half of this year, up nearly 23% from £271.1m a year ago.
It comes as the firm has requested bills rise 32% to make them among the most expensive in England and Wales.
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The proposed average annual bill would increase to £584 by 2030 from the £443 typical yearly charge in the 2023/2024 financial year. Since April 2023 bills have been upped 6.4% and then 7.9%.
Bills hikes were behind the rise in revenue to more than £1.08bn from £975.4m in 2023.
Other ways of assessing profit were lower than the underlying operating sum. Profit before tax reached £140.6m while after tax profit topped £103.1m for the six months to the end of September 2024, both lower than a year earlier.
Boss’s pay
Bonus and benefits payments worth £1.416m were paid to two executives on top of £1.128m in base pay, according to analysis of company filings done by the Liberal Democrats.
It’s down compared with 2022/2023 when three executives were given £1.6m in base pay and £2.456m in bonuses and benefits.
Read more:
Water giant United Utilities strikes £1.8bn pension deal
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
The environment
In a year of record sewage outflows into waterways the company was one of just three firms that met the Environment Agency’s top four-star performance ranking.
United Utilities in July came under investigation by water regulator Ofwat for not meeting its obligation to minimise pollution.
In response the company said at the time: “We understand and share people’s concerns about the health of the environment and the operation of wastewater systems, including combined sewer overflows.”
Pension “mega funds” will be created under government plans to increase infrastructure investment.
Reforms could “unlock £80 billion” of investment, according to Treasury plans, which say fewer but larger funds can get greater returns.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to imitate the way large Canadian and Australian pension schemes work.
She said it marks “the biggest set of reforms to the pensions market in decades” ahead of providing more details in a speech at Mansion House on Thursday evening.
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Almost 90 local government pension pots will be grouped together, with defined contribution schemes merged and assets pooled together.
This is part of the government’s plan to increase economic growth through investing in infrastructure.
Pension schemes get greater returns when they reach around £20bn to £50bn as they are “better placed to invest in a wider range of assets”, according to the government.
This is backed up by evidence from Canada and Australia, the government argues – with Canada’s schemes investing four times more in infrastructure, and Australia three times more than the UK’s defined contribution schemes.
Rachel Reeves wants to reform pensions. Pic: PA
Pensions minister Emma Reynolds told Sky News larger pension schemes are able to invest “in a more diverse range of assets, including private equity, which are higher risk, but over time give a higher return”.
She said the government will not tell pension fund managers they must invest more in private equity but due to the larger scale they will be able to invest in a “broader range of assets, and that’s what we see in Canada and Australia”.
Ms Reynolds added that a Canadian teacher or an Australian professor is currently more likely to be invested in British infrastructure or British high-growth companies than a British saver, which she said is “wrong”.
The chancellor has said the changes would “unlock tens of billions of pounds of investment in business and infrastructure, boost people’s savings in retirement and drive economic growth so we can make every part of Britain better off”.
However, Tom Selby, the director of public policy at financial company AJ Bell, said: “There needs to be some caution in this push to use other people’s money to drive economic growth. It needs to be made very clear to members what is happening with their money.”
The government says the funds will be regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and will need to “meet rigorous standards to ensure they deliver for savers”.
Read more:
Reeves to unveil plans for radical payments shake-up
Chancellor eyes Canada-style pension reform
Reeves to woo Canadian pension funds amid ‘Big Bang’ push
Local government pensions v defined contributions
The Local Government Pension Scheme in England and Wales will manage assets worth around £500bn by 2030.
These assets are currently split across 86 different administering authorities, with local government officials and councillors managing each fund.
Under the government plans, the management of local government pensions and what they invest in will be moved from councillors and local officials to “professional fund managers”.
This will allow them to invest more in assets such as infrastructure, supporting economic growth and local investment on behalf of the 6.7 million public servants, the government said.
Defined contribution pension schemes are set to manage £800bn worth of assets by the end of the decade.
There are around 60 different multi-employer schemes, each investing savers’ money into one or more funds. The government will consult on setting a minimum size requirement for these funds.
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Businesses cautious – but pensions sector backs plans
Businesses will need to be reassured that the government’s plans are watertight following the fallout from the budget, according to the trade group the Confederation of British Industry (CBI).
The CBI’s chief economist Louise Hellem said: “While the chancellor is right to concentrate on mobilising investment, putting pension reform to work for the government’s growth mission, unlocking investment also needs competitive and profitable businesses.
“With the budget piling additional costs on firms and squeezing their headroom to invest, the government needs to work hard to regain the confidence in the UK as a place businesses and communities can succeed.
“Pension schemes will want to operate within a UK economy that is prospering.”
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
But key parts of the pensions sector gave their backing to the government’s plans, including Standard Life, Royal London, Local Pensions Partnership Investments and the Pensions and Lifetime Savings Association.
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner said: “This is about harnessing the untapped potential of the pensions belonging to millions of people, and using it as a force for good in boosting our economy.”
Consumer rights group Which? is suing Apple for £3bn over the way it deploys the iCloud.
If the lawsuit succeeds, around 40 million Apple customers in the UK could be entitled to a payout.
The lawsuit claims Apple, which controls iOS operating systems, has breached UK competition law by giving its iCloud storage preferential treatment, effectively “trapping” customers with Apple devices into using it.
It also claims the company overcharged those customers by stifling competition.
The rights group alleges Apple encouraged users to sign up to iCloud for storage of photos, videos and other data while simultaneously making it difficult to use alternative providers.
Which? says Apple doesn’t allow customers to store or back-up all of their phone’s data with a third-party provider, arguing this violates competition law.
The consumer rights group says once iOS users have signed up to iCloud, they then have to pay for the service once their photos, notes, messages and other data go over the free 5GB limit.
“By bringing this claim, Which? is showing big corporations like Apple that they cannot rip off UK consumers without facing repercussions,” said Which?’s chief executive Anabel Hoult.
“Taking this legal action means we can help consumers to get the redress that they are owed, deter similar behaviour in the future and create a better, more competitive market.”
Apple ‘rejects’ claims and will defend itself
Apple “rejects” the idea its customers are tied to using iCloud and told Sky News it would “vigorously” defend itself.
“Apple believes in providing our customers with choices,” a spokesperson said.
“Our users are not required to use iCloud, and many rely on a wide range of third-party alternatives for data storage. In addition, we work hard to make data transfer as easy as possible – whether it’s to iCloud or another service.
“We reject any suggestion that our iCloud practices are anti-competitive and will vigorously defend against any legal claim otherwise.”
It also said nearly half of its customers don’t use iCloud and its pricing is inline with other cloud storage providers.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
How much could UK Apple customers receive if lawsuit succeeds?
The lawsuit will represent all UK Apple customers that have used iCloud services since 1 October 2015 – any that don’t want to be included will need to opt out.
However, if consumers live abroad but are otherwise eligible – for example because they lived in UK and used the iCloud but then moved away – they can also opt in.
The consumer rights group estimates that individual consumers could be owed an average of £70, depending on how long they have been paying for the services during that period.
Apple is facing a similar lawsuit in the US, where the US Department of Justice is accusing the company of locking down its iPhone ecosystem to build a monopoly.
Apple said the lawsuit is “wrong on the facts and the law” and that it will vigorously defend against it.
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Big tech’s battles
This is the latest in a line of challenges big tech companies like Apple, Google and Samsung have faced around anti-competitive practices.
Most notably, a landmark case in the US earlier this year saw a judge rule that Google holds an illegal monopoly over the internet search market.
The company is now facing a second antitrust lawsuit, and may be forced to break up parts of its business.
Read more: Google faces threat of being broken up
File pic: Reuters
And in December last year, a judge declared Google’s Android app store a monopoly in a case brought by a private gaming company.
“Now that five companies control the whole of the internet economy, there’s a real need for people to fight back and to really put pressure on the government,” William Fitzgerald, from tech campaigning organisation The Worker Agency, told Sky News.
William Fitzgerald at Lisbon’s Web Summit, where he spoke to Sky News
“That’s why we have governments; to hold corporations accountable, to actually enforce laws.”
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