The pound and UK government bond yields have recovered in anticipation of a key statement from the new chancellor tasked with sorting out the fallout from the government’s disastrous mini-budget.
Mr Kwarteng, who was sacked on Friday after just 38 days in the job, paid the price for a giveaway that called into question the government’s economic credibility on financial markets.
The mini-budget led not just to a collapse in the value of the pound, but also prompted a surge in borrowing costs – forcing an unprecedented intervention by the Bank of England (BoE).
However, following the prime minister’s announcement on Friday that Mr Kwarteng had been sacked and that corporation tax would rise to 25% from April next year instead of being kept at 19%, there was a partial recovery for the UK currency and bond yields.
Mr Kwarteng’s replacement, former foreign and health secretary Jeremy Hunt, has since promised to win back the confidence of the financial markets by fully accounting for the government’s tax and spending plans.
Sterling gained 1.1% to hit $1.1294 on Monday at one stage and also made strides versus the euro when the Treasury revealed that Mr Hunt would deliver key parts of a medium-term plan later on Monday in support of “fiscal sustainability”.
The statement – released before UK financial markets opened – added that Mr Hunt met the BoE governor Andrew Bailey and the head of the Debt Management Office on Sunday night to brief them on the plans.
There would be a select few announcements brought forward from the medium-term fiscal plan that is due to be revealed on 31 October.
The Bank issued its own statement ahead of the open to say that its operations, aimed at helping pension funds battling higher collateral demands, had enabled a “significant increase in the resilience of the sector”.
It reiterated that other liquidity options remained available, if needed, to ensure smooth financing.
Any rises in government borrowing costs, through a gilt yield rise, would have reflected additional jitters.
‘Unruly pupils are still scheming to oust the beleaguered head’
But there was a downwards shift, with both the UK 20 and 30 year yields falling by more than 30 basis points in early trading.
When markets closed on Friday, after a dramatic day that saw a chancellor sacked and a totemic economic policy junked, the verdict was troubling:
A sell off UK gilts had gathered pace before, during and after the Prime Minister’s press conference, and the closing bell could not come fast enough.
After Jeremy Hunt spent the weekend signalling a dramatic change in course to reassure the investors on whom confidence in the UK economy rests, the Treasury was plainly not going to take any chances on Monday morning.
That explains the pre-dawn announcement that the new chancellor would be bringing forward U-turns on Kwasi Kwarteng’s calamitous mini-budget.
The aim was to secure breathing space, a stay of execution from markets that could, had they continued to sense vulnerability, deepened the crisis and ended the fiscal repositioning before it began.
The need was all the more acute as this was the first Monday in a fortnight when the Bank of England was not acting as backstop to the gilt markets, its emergency intervention having been withdrawn on Friday, in part triggering the political meltdown that ended the week.
The response was precisely the one the Treasury and Downing Street wanted to see; the first move of UK gilt yields, a measure of the effective cost of Government borrowing, was down.
Yields on 10, 20 and 30-year bonds all moved down as trading began in London at 8am, a trend that if it lasts between now and 31st October, when the Office for Budget Responsibility delivers its calculation of the state of the public finances, has immense political and practical implications.
The gilt markets matter not just because they are an expression of confidence in a nation’s creditworthiness. Government bonds are the mechanism through which states borrow, and the less faith there is in your plan, the more it costs.
And those borrowing costs are central to the calculations the Treasury and the OBR are making. The UK has £2.4trn of debt and under the Truss plans was going to take on tens of billions more to fund tax cuts.
With market confidence evaporating (and gilt yields rising) the cost of that borrowing, old and new, rose. If yields can be brought down the cost of borrowing will fall, cutting billions from one side of the government’s balance sheet, which could in return reduce the need for cuts.
The next hours and days will be pivotal.
Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said other risk factors remained at play despite the initial recovery.
”New chancellor Jeremy Hunt has the air of a troubleshooting teacher brought in to turn around a failing school and faces his first big presentation test today with an emergency budget plan wheeled out to try and calm financial markets.
“This is all part of his charm offensive to instil confidence in the government’s ability to be fiscally responsible, but behind him unruly pupils are still scheming to oust the beleaguered head,” she wrote.
Can Truss remain PM?
It reflects a renewed focus on whether Ms Truss, the architect of the government’s initial economic strategy, can remain in the job.
A Tory MP told Sky News: “The idea that the prime minister can just scapegoat her chancellor and move on is deluded.
“This is her vision. She signed off on every detail and she defended it.”
The Conservative Party is now on its fifth chancellor in the past three years – Mr Hunt, Mr Kwarteng, Nadhim Zahawi, Rishi Sunak and Sajid Javid.
The US ambassador to the UK has said Britain should carry out “more drilling and more production” in the North Sea.
In his first broadcast interview in the job, Warren Stephens urged the UK to make the most of its own oil and gas reserves to cut energy costs and boost the economy.
“I want the UK economy to be as strong as it possibly can be, so the UK can be the best ally to the US that it possibly can be.
“Having a growing economy is essential to that – and the electricity costs make it very difficult.”
Mr Stephens told Wilfred Frost he hoped Britain would “examine the policies in the North Sea and frankly, make some changes to it that allows for more drilling and more production”.
“You’re using oil and gas, but you’re importing it. Why not use your own?” he asked.
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Image: Mr Stephens said Britain should make more of its own oil and gas
The ambassador said he had held meetings with Sir Keir Starmer on the energy issue while US President Donald Trump was in the room, and that the prime minister was “absolutely” listening to the US view.
“I think there are members of the government that are listening,” Mr Stephens told Sky News. “There is a little bit of movement to make changes on the policy and I’ll hope that will continue.”
Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has said the UK should be prioritising net zero by 2030 to limit climate change, rather than issuing new oil and gas drilling licences.
Image: The Thistle Alpha platform, north of Shetland, stopped production in 2020 . Pic: Reuters/Petrofac
However, the ambassador said it would take “all energy for all countries to compete” in the future, given the huge power demands of data centres and AI.
“I don’t think Ed Miliband is necessarily wrong,” said Mr Stephens. “But I think it’s an incorrect policy to ignore your fossil fuel reserves, both in the North Sea and onshore.”
The ambassador hosted Mr Trump on the first night of his second UK state visitin September – a trip that was seen as a success by both sides.
Mr Stephens said Mr Trump and Sir Keir had a “great relationship” and pointed to the historic ties between Britain and the US as a major factor in June’s trade deal and the favourable tariff rate on the UK.
Image: The ambassador said Sir Keir and President Trump have a ‘great relationship’
“The president really loves this country,” the ambassador told Sky News.
“I don’t think it’s coincidental that the tariff rates on the UK are generally a third, or at worst half, of what a lot of other countries are facing.
“I think the prime minister and his team did a great job of positioning the United Kingdom to be the first trade deal, but also the best one that’s been struck.”
Mr Stephens – who began his job in London in May – also touched on the Ukraine war and said Mr Trump’s patience with Russia was “wearing thin”.
The Alaska summit between Mr Trump and Vladimir Putin failed to produce a breakthrough, and the US leader has admitted the Russian president may be “playing” him so he can continue the fighting.
The ambassador told Sky News he had always favoured a tough stance on Russia and was “delighted” when Mr Trump sanctioned Russia’s two biggest oil firms a few weeks ago.
‘The incorrect policy’ – That’s Trumpian diplomacy for you
“You’re using oil and gas, but you’re importing it. Why not use your own?”
It’s a reasonable question for President Trump’s top representative here in the UK – ambassador Warren Stephens – to ask, particularly given that our exclusive interview was taking place in the UK’s oil capital, Aberdeen.
The ambassador told me that he and President Trump have repeatedly lobbied Prime Minister Starmer on the topic, and somewhat strikingly said the PM was “absolutely listening”, adding: “I think there are certainly members of the government that are listening. And there is a little bit of movement to make some changes to the policy.”
Well, one member of the government who is seemingly not listening, and happens to be spending most of this week at the UN Climate Change Conference in Brazil, is Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.
“It’s going to take all energy for all countries to compete in the 21st century for AI and data centres,” the ambassador told me. “And so, I don’t think Ed Miliband is necessarily wrong, but I think it’s an incorrect policy to ignore your fossil fuel reserves, both in the North Sea and onshore.”
Not wrong, but the incorrect policy. That’s Trumpian diplomacy for you.
His comments on Russia, China and free speech were also fascinating. On the latter, he said that in the US someone might get “cancelled for saying something, but they’re not going to get arrested.”
“The president, has been, I would say, careful in ramping up pressure on Russia. But I think his patience is wearing out,” said Mr Stephens.
“One of the problems is a lot of European countries still depend on Russian gas,” he added.
“We’re mindful of that. We understand that, but until we can really cut off their ability to sell oil and gas around the world, they’re going to have money and Putin seems intent on continuing the war.”
The ambassador also struck a cautious but hopeful tone on future US and UK relations with China.
China’s huge economy is too big to ignore – but it remains a major spy threat; the head of MI5 warned last month of an increase in “state threat activity” from Beijing (as well as Russia and Iran).
Mr Stephens praised the country’s economy and said it would be “terrific” if China could one day be considered a partner.
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Trump-Xi meeting: Three key takeaways
But he warned “impatient” China is ruthlessly focused on itself only, and would like to see the US and the West weakened.
“There’s certainly things we want to be able to do with China,” added the ambassador.
“And I know the UK wants to do things with China. The United States does, too – and we should. But I think we always need to keep in the back of our mind that China does not have our interests at heart.”
Nigel Farage has long known he would need to overhaul Reform UK’s offer on the economy, not least because of the scale of the attack it faced over conference season.
According to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, last year’s manifesto plans would cost nearly £90bn per year, with spending increases alone of £50bn.
They claimed they would pay for these through £150bn per year of reductions in other spending, covering public services, debt interest and working-age benefits – eyewatering sums that the other parties felt left Reform UK exposed.
So in traditional Nigel Farage fashion, Monday comes the pivot.
In a speech in the City, Farage said that large upfront tax cuts were no longer on the agenda because of the state of the economy.
He said significant but “sensible” deregulation was needed to take advantage of post-Brexit freedoms, and put public sector pensions and even the triple lock (up for consideration but no decisions have been made) on the table.
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“We want to cut taxes. Of course we do. But we understand substantial tax cuts given the dire state of debt and our finances are not realistic,” he told the 100-strong audience.
Image: Nigel Farage gives a speech at Banking Hall in the City of London. Pic: PA
Farage has to walk a fine line
He was unapologetic that he could not say when or by how much taxes would be lowered.
He said: “If I’m right and that election comes in 2027, then the economy will be in an even worse state than any of us in this room can even predict. How can anybody project on pensions and thresholds or any of those things between now and then?”
But he must walk a fine line – both claiming to be consistent as a politician while changing his stance.
And more broadly, given we have had “Brexit Nigel” and “trade-union Nigel” and “small state Nigel” and “nationalisation Nigel” – which all, I pointed out to him, line up like Barbies on a toy shelf today – I asked him why we should now suddenly trust “fiscal responsibility Nigel” and that this survives to and beyond the next general election?
His answer was instructive – saying that while his principles and ideology has been consistent, he conceded the practical application has had to evolve.
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He said: “I believe in pretty much the same sort of things I believed in 30 years ago. The difference is I now understand more than I did the role of the state in strategic industries.
“That’s why Richard Tice and I went to Scunthorpe… Have I adapted over 30 years into believing that the country needs an industrial strategy?
“Yes. Do I believe that actually, in certain failing industries, you know, a short-term partial nationalisation where, by the way, the bondholders and shareholders get wiped out? It doesn’t cost the government to do it.”
Interesting insight
This is an interesting insight into a politician who was associated with a certain strand of conservatism. He hopes political evolution works in his favour.
But the history of candour in British politics does not always favour the brave, as George Osborne discovered in late 2009.
As Farage threatens a benefits crackdown and becomes the only party to put changes to the triple lock on the table, will Reform UK’s original voters still be as strongly in favour?
The private equity firm which owns the Las Iguanas and Cafe Rouge restaurant chains is in talks to buy a sizeable chunk of Next 15 Group, the London-listed marketing services group.
Sky News has learnt that Epiris, which owns the Big Table casual dining group and also counted auctioneer Bonhams among its recent investments, has approached Next 15 Group about a deal.
City sources said on Monday that Epiris’s offer included Next 15 subsidiaries MHP Communications, a leading financial public relations firm.
M Booth, a consumer marketing operation; Outcast, another PR agency; and Activate, a business-to-business demand generation specialist, are also said to form part of the deal perimeter.
Ares Management, the private credit giant, is understood to have been approached by Epiris to help finance its offer.
Discussions between Epiris and Next 15 are said to be ongoing, although insiders cautioned that a transaction was not certain to materialise.
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Sky News reported the approach to Next 15 earlier this year, although the identity of the bidder was unclear at that stage.
Next 15 is a marketing services conglomerate which is effectively a smaller replica of industry giants such as Publicis and WPP, the latter of which is engulfed in strategic uncertainty.
Sir Martin Sorrell, the WPP founder who now runs S4 Capital, has also been in talks about taking the business private.
A sale of its Marker division would leave Next 15 focused on its remaining technology and data-driven client businesses. Next 15 issued a profit warning and changed its leadership earlier this year as it disclosed “potential serious misconduct” related to Mach49, a Silicon Valley advisory business it owns.
Tim Dyson, its chief executive for over three decades, has retired and been replaced by Sam Knights, the boss of Shopper Media Group, one of its subsidiaries.
The group has already been engaged in selling a number of units.
Next 15 has a market value of about £420m after seeing its stock rally in recent months.
The shares, which were trading at about 404.5p on Monday afternoon, are broadly flat over the last year.