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New figures are expected to show inflation returned to double figures in September due to still-rising food prices.

The Office for National Statistics will reveal the latest increase in the cost of living for UK households on Wednesday morning.

And economists have predicted it will show Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation increased to 10% in September, compared with 9.9% the previous month.

There is likely to be an increase, despite falls in petrol prices (which dropped by around 4% over the month according to Forex.com) and used car prices.

Food inflation is predicted to have jumped to 14.3% from 13.1% in August.

The figures will be released with just 12 days left for new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to find ways to gain economic confidence – and a plug for Britain’s funding gap – before the 31 October “medium-term fiscal plan” from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).

Former Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng‘s ill-fated mini-budget, just over three weeks ago, caused turmoil on financial markets. Economists estimated the government was facing a £60bn black hole in public finances following his announcements, which included £45bn of unfunded tax cuts for high earners.

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Watch – Chancellor’s statement in full

Read – Which Tory MPs are calling for Truss to go – and how could the PM be ousted?

Benefits and pensions implications

The September inflation figure has implications for other areas too, including benefits and pensions.

It will be used as part of the Work and Pensions Secretary’s annual benefits uprating review.

If the government decides to uprate benefits by inflation, this is the percentage they will be increased by, and will come into effect from next April.

It will also be used for reviewing the triple-lock pension commitment.

The triple-lock means pensions will rise by either average earnings, CPI inflation based on September’s rate, or 2.5% – whichever is highest.

With average earnings most recently hitting 5.4%, the triple lock should ensure pensions rising by the inflation rate in April next year.

Therese Coffey, Secretary of State for Work and Pensions on Sky News
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Therese Coffey, the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions, will oversee any triple-lock changes

However, on Tuesday, Downing Street indicated ministers could ditch their commitment to the triple lock as Mr Hunt finds ways to claw back funds.

It will not only be inflation figures that benefit claimants will have a keen eye on, The Times says there are fears too, the cap on the cost of social care – promised by PM Liz Truss a month ago – might be scrapped.

From October 2023 there is due to be an £86,000 cap on personal care payments for all adults of any age without exemption.

Once a person has paid enough to reach this limit, state support kicks in to cover their care costs.

The chancellor may decide that is something the government can no longer afford.

Jeremy Hunt and Liz Truss
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Jeremy Hunt and Liz Truss

On Monday, Mr Hunt revealed he was reversing “almost all” of the tax cuts announced in his predecessor’s mini-budget and was also scaling back support for energy bills.

In an emergency statement, the chancellor said a 1p cut to income tax will be delayed “indefinitely” until the UK’s finances improve, instead of being introduced in April 2023 as previously announced.

Mr Hunt, who only stepped into the job on Friday, said the government’s energy price guarantee will only be universal until April – not for two years as originally planned.

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Analysis: Sky’s economics editor Ed Conway explains why the new Chancellor’s announcement was so surprising.

As the economic fallout continues, a new survey has showed confidence among British businesses has dropped.

The Federation of Small Businesses (FSB) said its latest small business confidence index fell to -35.9 from -24.7, the worst reading outside of COVID-19 lockdowns.

The survey ran from 20 September to 4 October, covering much of the period since the prime minster and Mr Kwarteng first published their economic plans, which triggered a historic sell-off in British assets, a tumbling of the value of the pound, rocketing mortgage rates and pension funds being put at risk.

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Canada might be the second election Trump wins in six months

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Canada might be the second election Trump wins in six months

When Canada goes to the polls today, it might be the second election Donald Trump wins in six months.

The US president has transformed Canada’s political landscape, and the “Trump effect” looks like it will be the difference between winners and losers.

Tariffs, and his threat to annexe the country as the 51st state, have provoked a surge in Canadian nationalism, and it’s made a favourite of the candidate styled anti-Trump.

Step forward, Mark Carney: Former governor of the Bank of England, now Canadian prime minister.

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‘Canada will win’

His ruling Liberal party had been written off as an electoral contender. Canadians had turned their back on the party after a decade in power under Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

The opposition Conservative Party, under the effective leadership of Pierre Poilievre, grew to a 25-point lead in the polls on the promise of change on the economy, crime and a chronic housing crisis.

However, his conservative politics are more aligned with the neighbour in the White House and, in Canada right now, it’s not a good look.

Read more: Everything you need to know about the election

Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre and his wife Anaida in Keene, Ontario. Pic: Reuters
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Pierre Poilievre led the Conservatives to a 25-point lead before Trudeau stepped down. Pic: Reuters

In a stunning reversal of fortune, the Conservative Party’s lead vanished within weeks, as Canadians turned to Carney as the choice to take on Trump.

If he wins, the swing from Conservative to Liberal will be the biggest swing in the polls in recent democratic history.

Carney, 60, is the former governor of the Bank of Canada, as well as England. He replaced Mr Trudeau as Liberal Party leader and Canadian prime minister after his predecessor stepped down last month.

Polls indicate that Canadians see Carney as a stronger choice to negotiate with Donald Trump. He is a veteran of economic turmoil, having dealt with the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and liberal Leader Mark Carney shake hands after the English-language federal leaders' debate in Montreal. Pic: Reuters
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Pierre Poilievre and Mark Carney after an English-language leaders’ debate in Montreal. Pic: Reuters

At a weekend news conference, Sky News asked the Canadian prime minister what lessons he’d learned from Brexit that could be applied to his dealings with Donald Trump.

He replied: “The lessons of Brexit are beginning to be applied. When you break off, or substantially rupture, trading relationships with your major trading partners, including the most important trading partner of the United States, you end up with slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, volatility, weaker currency, a weaker economy.

“We’re in the early stages of that in the United States, and that’s one of the important things here. With respect to influencing the president, with respect to the dynamics of a negotiation, America’s going to get weaker as time goes on, we’re going to get stronger.”

Canada’s vote is as close as it gets to a single-issue election.

Carney’s position as favourite is reinforced consistently by the opinion polls, although the gap narrowed as election day approached.

It could yet be tight.

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Trump ‘very disappointed’ in Russian strikes on Ukraine and calls for Putin to ‘sit down and sign a deal’

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Trump 'very disappointed' in Russian strikes on Ukraine and calls for Putin to 'sit down and sign a deal'

Donald Trump has said he’s “very disappointed” with Russia as he continues to push for a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine.

On Saturday, the US president met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the Vatican for their first face-to-face meeting since their explosive White House summit.

The Ukrainian president said the meeting ahead of Pope Francis’s funeral could end up being “historic.” Hours later, Mr Trump questioned Vladimir Putin’s appetite for peace in a Truth Social post.

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From Saturday: Trump meets Zelenskyy at funeral

Speaking before boarding Air Force One on Sunday, Mr Trump again said the meeting went well, and that the Ukrainian leader was “calmer”.

“I think he understands the picture, I think he wants to make a deal,” he said, before turning to Mr Putin and Russia.

“I want him to stop shooting, sit down and sign a deal,” the US president said, adding he was “very disappointed that they did the bombing of those places (including Kyiv, where nine people were killed in a Russian airstrike on Friday) after discussions”.

However, Mr Trump said he thinks Mr Zelenskyy is ready to give up Crimea, which the Ukrainian leader has repeatedly said he would refuse to do.

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He added that “we’ll see what happens in the next few days” and said “don’t talk to me about Crimea, talk to Obama and Biden about Crimea”.

Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, while Barack Obama was president.

Meanwhile, US secretary of state Marco Rubio told Sky’s US partner network NBC News that a peace deal to end the war was “closer in general than they’ve been any time in the last three years, but it’s still not there”.

“If this was an easy war to end, it would have been ended by someone else a long time ago,” he added on the Meet the Press show.

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It comes after North Korea confirmed it had deployed troops to fight for Russia, months after Ukraine and Western officials said its forces were in Europe.

State media outlet KCNA reported North Korean soldiers made an “important contribution” to expelling Ukrainian forces from Russian territory, likely to be the Kursk region.

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KCNA said leader Kim Jong Un made the decision to deploy troops to Russia and notified Moscow, and quoted him as saying: “They who fought for justice are all heroes and representatives of the honour of the motherland.”

It also quoted the country’s ruling Workers’ Party as saying the end of the battle to liberate Kursk showed the “highest strategic level of the firm militant friendship” between North Korea and Russia.

Last June, Mr Kim and Mr Putin signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty after a state visit – his first to the country in 24 years.

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From June 2024: Putin drives Kim around in luxury limo during state visit

The North Korean leader promised at the time “full support and solidarity to the Russian government, army and people in carrying out the special military operation in Ukraine”.

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40 killed in blast at Iran’s biggest port as Tehran denies explosion ‘linked to fuel for missiles’

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40 killed in blast at Iran's biggest port as Tehran denies explosion 'linked to fuel for missiles'

At least 40 people have been killed and several hundred more injured after an explosion and fire at Iran’s largest port, according to state media.

The blast, at the Shahid Rajaei container hub near the southern city of Bandar Abbas, happened on Saturday as Iran held a third round of talks with the US in Oman about Tehran’s nuclear programme.

Shipping containers burned, goods inside were badly damaged and the explosion was so powerful that windows several miles away were shattered, reports said.

Iranian Red Crescent rescuers work at the site of the blast. Pic: Reuters
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Iranian Red Crescent rescuers work at the site of the blast. Pic: Reuters

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The blast at the Shahid Rajaei port happened as Iran and the US met for the third round of negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program.

Helicopters and aircraft dumped water from the air on the blaze and by Sunday afternoon it was 90% extinguished, the head of Iran’s Red Crescent Society told state media.

Officials said port activities had resumed in unaffected parts of Shahid Rajaei.

Out of the 752 people who had received treatment for their injuries, 190 were still being treated in medical centres on Sunday, according to Iran’s crisis management organisation.

Chemicals at the port were suspected to have worsened the blast, but the exact cause of the explosion was not clear.

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Iran’s defence ministry denied international media reports that the explosion may be connected to the mishandling of solid fuel used for missiles.

The reports were “aligned with enemy psyops [psychological operations]”, according to a ministry spokesperson, who told state TV the blast-hit area did not contain any military cargo.

Firefighters work to extinguish the fire. Pic: AP
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Firefighters work to extinguish the blaze. Pic: AP

Pic: AP
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Pic: AP

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According to the Associated Press, British security company Ambrey said that the port in March received sodium perchlorate, which is used to propel ballistic missiles and the mishandling of which could have led to the explosion.

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The Financial Times previously reported two Iranian vessels had shipped from China enough of the ingredient to propel up to 260 mid-range missiles.

It was reportedly to help Tehran replenish stocks after its missile attacks on Israel in 2024.

Iran’s military has sought to deny the delivery of sodium perchlorate from China.

Iran’s state-run Irna news agency reported on Sunday that Russian President Vladimir Putin deployed several emergency aircraft to Bandar Abbas to provide help.

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