Inflation rises to 10.1% as economy reels from mini-budget chaos
The rate of inflation rose to 10.1% in September, according to official figures, as the economy reels from the effects of rising prices and the fallout from the mini-budget.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said the consumer prices index (CPI) measure rose from an annual rate of 9.9% in August to match the recent 40-year high seen in July.
The report showed the largest upwards contribution came from food costs, while fuel provided the greatest downside pressure.
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It said the pace of food price rises was at its highest since April 1980 – running at an annual rate of 14.6% – with bread and cereals, meat products, milk, cheese and eggs leading the increases, the ONS reported.
It is mostly a result of the effects caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the Western sanctions imposed in response, that have seen energy and other commodity costs surge and be passed on down the supply chain to shoppers.
Households and businesses are also facing greater uncertainty ahead after the mini-budget tax and spending giveaway of 23 September was largely overturned following a violent rejection by financial markets.
There are now just 12 days left for new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt to find ways to gain economic confidence – and a plug for Britain’s funding gap – before the 31 October “medium-term fiscal plan” and analysis of the situation from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR).
Benefits and pensions implications
The lack of clarity on the government’s spending plans leaves millions of pensioners and benefit claimants in limbo.
That is because September’s inflation figure has implications for how their payments are uprated.
If the government decides to raise benefits by inflation, the hike will come into effect from next April.
September’s figure is also used for reviewing the triple-lock pension commitment.
The triple-lock means pensions will rise by either average earnings, CPI inflation based on September’s rate, or 2.5% – whichever is highest.
With average earnings most recently hitting 5.4%, the triple lock should ensure pensions rising by the inflation rate in April next year.
However, on Tuesday, Downing Street indicated ministers could ditch their commitment to the triple lock as Mr Hunt finds ways to claw back funds.
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Truss sorry for budget chaos
The Financial Times reported on Wednesday morning that he could make a move on bank profits, in addition to potentially taking a greater share of energy company earnings to help balance the books.
Household finances are widely facing greater uncertainty after Mr Hunt confirmed the universal energy price guarantee, capping wholesale costs, would end in April and likely become more targeted in the months beyond.
It threatens to add to inflation next spring, should the majority of bill-payers have to stump up for energy costs in line with energy price cap predictions of around £4,000 annually.
The chancellor said in reaction to the inflation data: “I understand that families across the country are struggling with rising prices and higher energy bills.
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Benefits: Families falling into crisis
“This government will prioritise help for the most vulnerable while delivering wider economic stability and driving long-term growth that will help everyone.
“We have acted decisively to protect households and businesses from significant rises in their energy bills this winter, with the government’s energy price guarantee holding down peak inflation.”
Commenting on the current price picture, ONS director of economic statistics, Darren Morgan, said: “The rise was driven by further increases across food, which saw its largest annual rise in over 40 years, while hotel prices also increased after falling this time last year.
“These rises were partially offset by continuing falls in the costs of petrol, with airline prices falling by more than usual for this time of year, and second-hand car prices also rising less steeply than the large increases seen last year.
“While still at a historically high rate, the costs facing businesses are beginning to rise more slowly, with crude oil prices actually falling in September.”
The UK will “set out a path” to lift defence spending to 2.5% of national income in the spring, the prime minister has said, finally offering a timeframe for an announcement on the long-awaited hike after mounting criticism.
Sir Keir Starmer gave the date during a phone call with Mark Rutte, the secretary general of NATO, in the wake of threats by Moscow to target UK and US military facilities following a decision by London and Washington to let Ukraine fire their missiles inside Russia.
There was no clarity though on when the 2.5% level will be achieved. The UK says it currently spends around 2.3% of GDP on defence.
Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Sir Keir Starmer and NATO boss Mark Rutte in October. Pic: PA
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A spokeswoman for Downing Street said that the two men “began by discussing the situation in Ukraine and reiterated the importance of putting the country in the strongest possible position going into the winter”.
They also talked about the deployment of thousands of North Korean soldiers to fight alongside Russia.
“The prime minister underscored the need for all NATO countries to step up in support of our collective defence and updated on the government’s progress on the strategic defence review,” the spokeswoman said.
“His government would set out the path to 2.5% in the spring.”
The defence review will also be published in the spring.
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While a date for an announcement on 2.5% will be welcomed by the Ministry of Defence, analysts have long warned that such an increase is still well below the amount that is needed to rebuild the armed forces after decades of decline to meet growing global threats from Russia, an increasingly assertive China, North Korea and Iran.
They say the UK needs to be aiming to hit at least 3% – probably higher.
With Donald Trump returning to the White House, there will be significantly more pressure on the UK and other European NATO allies to accelerate increases in defence spending.
A man has been arrested on suspicion of murder after one man died and another was critically injured in a shooting in Birmingham.
Police were called to Rotton Park Road in Edgbaston, just before 11pm on Friday, to reports that two people had been shot.
One man, in his 20s, was found in a car but was pronounced dead at the scene.
Another man, in his 30s, was found injured at a bus stop, and was taken to hospital where he remains in a critical condition, West Midlands Police added.
Firearms officers arrested a man in his 30s on suspicion of murder just before 12.30am. He remains in custody.
Officers remain on the scene, with road closures in place. The force said reassurance patrols will also be taking place.
Detective Inspector Nick Barnes said: “This is a tragic incident, and we have worked through the night to understand exactly what happened.
“We’ve already made good progress and arrested a suspect, but I still need to hear from anyone who was in the area that we’ve not already spoken to.
“This happened near the busy junction with City Road and it may be that you’ve got dashcam footage or mobile phone footage from the area just before 11pm.
“We really need to hear from you so that we can build as clear a picture as possible of what happened.”
Officers are urging anyone with information to get in contact, with anonymous tips also taken via Crimestoppers.
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