It’s a sign of how bad things are for the new prime minister that only her third Prime Minister’s Questions is being billed as a potentially defining moment in her short premiership.
MPs tell me that how Liz Truss performs at the dispatch box against Sir Keir Starmer at their weekly joust will be an acid test for the prime minister put on notice by her party.
Having dodged questions on Friday when she reversed key planks of her economic plan, and then left it to her new chancellor complete the mini-Budget and two-year energy support plan reversal, this PMQs will be a moment of reckoning.
Many of her party doubt she can meet the moment and think a poor performance will again reignite calls for her go.
“I can’t see what she says at PMQs,” one former minister told me. “Her reputation’s in shreds.”
For the opposition this a “moment of jeopardy” to exploit. “On the Labour side looking across you can see a PM’s authority draining away – as we saw with Johnson.
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“I’m sure sets of electrodes are being handed to MPs to bounce up and down in support of the prime minister.
“But it will a big moment, and isn’t just about exchanges with Keir Starmer, the most damaging stuff can come from their own side.”
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We saw that back in January when David Davis, the former cabinet minister, used PMQs to publicly call on Mr Johnson to resign. And just moments before that happened Bury South MP Christian Wakeford crossed the floor of the House, defecting from the Conservatives to Labour in another body blow for an embattled prime minister.
Mr Johnson clung on for another six months in a rolling political and leadership crisis, finally being pushed out from Downing Street after dozens of ministers quit his government. As he put it in his resignation speech: “When the herd moves it moves.”
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January 2022: Johnson told ‘in the name of God, go’
This PMQs will be the latest test of that herd mentality with MPs muttering that she needs to put in a strong showing. She is undoubtedly in deep trouble, with five MPs calling for her publicly to go – although many are privately saying the same.
But if a bad performance is further destabilising, a good performance will now do little to change the fortunes for Ms Truss beyond the immediate moment.
All the talk in Westminster – apart from those cabinet ministers taking to the airwaves to try to shore her up, is about the timing and mechanism for removing and replacing her. The polling around her is disastrous with only one in 10 Britons satisfied with her.
It is the worst polling ever for any leader, from which there is likely no way back. One former cabinet minister told me this week that they thought 90 per cent of the party thought Ms Truss had to go and said Sir Graham Brady will, at some point, have to go to the PM and tell her she no longer has the support of her party and can either stand aside or see a rule change that would force a confidence vote in the PM.
Changing the rules?
What I hear Sir Graham is now working on is a change in the nominations to basically try to force a unity candidate onto the party and avoid a drawn-out run-off in which party members get the final say.
There is talk of setting the nominations bar as perhaps around a third of the parliamentary party – something like 100 or 120 votes. At that level the likely trio with a chance at the top job would be Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt or Penny Mordaunt.
But the aim might be to set the threshold at the level that only one could reach in order to settle the matter quickly, and amongst MPs rather than members, who polling now shows they regret their choice of Ms Truss.
If it all sounds ferociously complicated, that’s because it is. And it comes back to the point that there is not an obvious unity candidate, while MPs are desperate to avoid a protracted run-off – two reasons helping Mr Truss stay in post.
But even if the herd isn’t quite ready to stampede, the outlook is treacherous for the prime minister.
Her new chancellor told me this week after he had ripped up the mini-Budget and reversed £32bn of tax cuts that there would be “eye-wateringly difficult decisions” to take around spending. That’s because he has to fill a fiscal black hole running to perhaps £40bn-£50bn through spending cuts and further tax rises.
One former cabinet minister told me that the cuts Mr Hunt is eyeing will be much bigger than those dealt by former chancellor George Osborne. “They might end up having to do double the amount of cuts than in the austerity years. Jeremy is really worried about it.”
Unease over spending cuts
And so he should be. MPs and ministers are already agitating against potential spending cuts, after Mr Hunt on Monday put everything back on the table. He refused in an interview with me on Monday to commit to uprating pension or benefits by inflation or honouring Liz Truss’s promise to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP by the end of the decade.
The Defence Secretary Ben Wallace and his deputy James Heappey have suggested they could quit if this pledge is reversed, while two MPs have already publicly said they will not support the government if it attempts to end the pensions triple lock.
“Pensioners should not be paying the price for the cost of living crisis whether caused by the war in Ukraine or mini budgets,” wrote Tory MP Maria Caulfield on Twitter last night.
Mr Hunt is also eyeing up additional taxes to raise funds for government coffers. Options include possible windfall taxes on banks and energy companies – again Ms Truss vowed not to introduce an energy windfall tax when she became PM – as a way to help plug the gap.
It goes without saying that all of this is fraught with political difficulty and if the markets decide Mr Hunt can’t get his spending cuts through parliament and begin selling off government debt, there could be another bout of market turbulence, with all the potentially fatal fall-out that has for Ms Truss. That fiscal statement, billed for 31 October, really could prove a frightful event.
PMQs is undoubtedly a huge test for the prime minister today whose reputation has been shredded this week. But this is just the first test of many she’s going to face. For now, this is a PM and a No 10 just trying to survive from one day to the next.
Hamas has said it agrees to release Israeli hostages, dead and alive, under Donald Trump’s peace plan for Gaza.
The group also said it wants to engage in negotiations to discuss further details, including handing over “administration of the enclave to a Palestinian body of independent autocrats”.
However, other aspects of the 20-point plan, it said, would require further consultation among Palestinians.
The announcement came just hours after President Trump had set a new deadline of Sunday to respond to his proposals, backed by the Arab nations.
The president and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unveiled the plan at the White House on Monday.
Israel agreed to the terms, which include an immediate ceasefire; the release of all hostages; Hamas disarming; a guarantee no one will be forced to leave Gaza; and a governing “peace panel” including Sir Tony Blair.
And on Friday night, a statement from Hamas confirmed “its approval to release all prisoners of the occupation – whether alive or the remains of the deceased – according to the exchange framework included in President Trump’s proposal”.
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Trump’s Sunday deadline threat
The group also said it was ready to engage in negotiations through mediators and that it appreciated “Arab, Islamc and international efforts, as well as the efforts of US President Donald Trump”.
But, Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk told Al Jazeera news the group would not disarm “before the Israeli occupation ends”.
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In a Truth Social post on Friday, Mr Trump said if Hamas did not agree to the peace deal by Sunday evening “all hell” would break out.
Ramping up pressure
He had posted: “An Agreement must be reached with Hamas by Sunday Evening at SIX (6) P.M., Washington, D.C. time. Every Country has signed on! If this LAST CHANCE agreement is not reached, all HELL, like no one has ever seen before, will break out against Hamas. THERE WILL BE PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST ONE WAY OR THE OTHER.”
There has been no official response from the US and Israel to the partial acceptance.
Israel has sought to ramp up pressure on Hamas since ending an earlier ceasefire in March.
It sealed the territory off from food, medicine and other goods for two and a half months and has seized, flattened and largely depopulated large areas of the territory.
Experts determined Gaza City had slid into famine shortly before Israel launched a major offensive aimed at occupying it.
An estimated 400,000 people have fled the city in recent weeks, but hundreds of thousands more have stayed behind.
Most of Hamas’ top leaders in Gaza and thousands of its fighters have already been killed, but it still has influence in areas not controlled by the Israeli military and launches sporadic attacks that have killed and wounded Israeli soldiers.
“Listen man, we’re a narco state, it’s just how it is, if you want to see drug deals, I’ll show you drug deals – it’s Colombia.”
I’d only asked one of our Colombian producers in passing if it was possible to see drugs being traded on the streets of Medellin. I didn’t realise it was that simple.
Medellin is synonymous with drugs and cartels. The home of perhaps the most famous of all the drug lords, Pablo Escobar, it seems to revel in its notoriety.
There are pictures of Escobar everywhere, on posters, on caps, and on t-shirts. There are even guided tours to his grave, and a museum in his honour.
Image: Stuart Ramsay speaks with a coca farmer, who earn very little from growing the crop
This is where the big business drug cartels were born, invented by Escobar himself, the original Latin American “Godfather”.
In an infamous district in Medellin, we were instantly confronted with the sounds of dealers on the streets shouting out their products for sale as we drove through.
“Cocaine! Pills! Ecstasy! Tusi!” they shouted. All available to a traffic jam of cars waiting to buy.
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Motorcycle delivery drivers queued to make the pick-up for their clients waiting in high-end apartments and nightclubs elsewhere in the city, while buyers on foot discreetly scored their drugs, before moving on.
Image: Medellin was the home of Pablo Escobar and drugs are widely traded on its streets
‘Narco’ culture
It was chaotic and noisy, a place where lookouts use whistles to send signals to the dealers.
Two toots mean it’s all clear, a single toot is a warning – it means the police are nearby.
In the middle of this big open-air market for drugs, dimly lit restaurants and cafes served dinner. We passed one café where we saw a family sat at a table outside, celebrating a woman’s 70th birthday.
This neighbourhood runs a 24-hour drug selling market alongside the usual shops and cafes that spill over on to the pavement.
Image: It is not illegal to grow coca, only to use it to produce cocaine
Although Colombia has a long history and fascination with “narco” culture and drug-taking, its immediate problem is that President Donald Trump has launched a war on Latin American drug cartels, manufacturers, and the nations the drugs come from – and through.
Venezuela is at the top of his hit list; he has launched strikes on boats off the Venezuelan coast that he says were carrying drugs. He has boosted American military presence in the Caribbean – sending ships, marines, helicopters, drones and jets into the region.
There is speculation he may be looking for regime change in Venezuela, and that the war on drugs is a front to remove President Nicolas Maduro from power, claiming the Venezuelan government is basically a drug cartel. Something they of course deny.
Image: This coca plantation was hacked into the rainforest on the border of Colombia and Peru
None of this bodes well for Venezuela’s neighbour Colombia, indeed President Trump has made it clear Colombia is high on his list of troublesome nations.
There are other countries on his list, like Mexico, that he says has demonstrated willingness to clean up their act and take the war to Mexico’s deadly cartels.
Mr Trump’s gripe with Colombia isn’t necessarily that its society has a relaxed attitude to drug use – it is widespread across all classes – no, his problem is that Colombia is one of the biggest producers of cocaine in the world, and it feeds the biggest market, which is the United States of America.
Image: Coca plantations are hidden miles away from other people in the Amazon
Hidden away, miles from people
It seems that the president’s view is that the supplier is the problem, not necessarily the user.
Cocaine is extracted from the coca leaf, which is grown in abundance in Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia.
Growing the coca plant in these countries is not illegal, and the leaf itself is often used for other purposes. The plant only becomes illegal when it’s used for cocaine production.
I wanted to meet the farmers who grow coca to find out if they are the masterminds of a multi-billion-pound international drugs business, or just farmers meeting international demand.
My journey began just after dawn in pouring rain on the Amazon River in Colombia.
Perhaps unsurprisingly the plantations are hidden away in remote areas, miles away from people.
Image: Stuart Ramsay in the rainforest
We travelled for hours in the rain, on a small boat with a guide, passing indigenous communities who have nothing to do with the business hiding in their forest.
The river narrowed as we got closer to our destination, and five hours later, after navigating through broken tree trunks and low hanging branches, we arrived at an eight hectare coca plantation hacked into the rainforest bordering Colombia and Peru.
The crop, which is two-and-a-half years old, is hidden by the trees and the river.
They are about to start harvesting it, but it’s incredible just how many leaves they need.
The farmer says that for every 70 grams of cocaine produced, the cartel producers need 30 kilograms of leaves.
Image: Colombia is one of the biggest producers of cocaine
Only way to provide for his family
That’s a lot of picking – and the farmer will earn just $7 for those 30 kilograms of leaves.
The cocaine business might be incredibly lucrative for the cartels that control it, but at the very bottom the farmers hardly get paid a thing.
And though he is worried about getting caught, the farmer I meet sees it as the only way to provide for his family.
“For me it’s very valuable, it’s my sustenance, the way for sustaining life,” he told me.
“We are aware that illegal processing isn’t good for anybody, not exactly, you can’t say I am doing this, and this is good for people, no, this harms the entire community, everyone,” he explained when I asked him if he was at all conflicted about his crop.
“But we all make sacrifices, and we struggle to make our way in life.”
It’s hard to believe that the global business of manufacturing and shipping cocaine around the world all starts with these fairly innocuous looking coca leaves.
And whatever Donald Trump says, they will keep producing as long as users in America, Europe, and indeed the world, demand it.
Several boats from a large aid flotilla trying to reach Gaza have been boarded by Israeli authorities – with campaigner Greta Thunberg among those removed.
The Global Sumud Flotilla is made up of more than 40 civilian boats with an estimated 500 people onboard, and is trying to break Israel’s sea blockade.
But the attempt appears to have been thwarted – at least for now – by about 20 Israeli ships.
Israel’s foreign ministry said “several vessels” had been “safely stopped” with passengers being taken to an Israeli port.
“Greta and her friends are safe and healthy,” a spokesperson added.
Image: A livestream showed some of the boats in the flotilla as the incident unfolded
A video showed Thunberg sitting on deck while being handed a water bottle and raincoat.
It’s so far unclear how many boats have been intercepted.
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The flotilla ignored requests to turn back and organisers said the interception was illegal as it happened in “international waters” around 80 miles off the coast.
Greg Stoker, a US veteran who’s involved, said water cannon had been used on some of the boats.
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Gaza-bound flotilla ‘aggressively circled’ by warship
The flotilla, which set off from Barcelona and scheduled to arrive this morning, was flanked by NATO warships for some of the journey.
The attempt has received a lot of attention, with Nelson Mandela’s grandson, a former Barcelona mayor and several European legislators taking part.
Israel said the mission was violating a lawful blockade and is only intended to provoke. It also said it had offered a way to deliver any aid peacefully through safe channels.
Organisers said the night-time interception was the second time the flotilla had been approached on Wednesday, after “warships” earlier encircled two of its boats.
Image: The flotilla set off from Barcelona on 31 August and later stopped in Sicily
Last week, drones also reportedly dropped stun grenades and itching powder on some vessels.
Israel didn’t comment, but has said it will use any means to stop the boats getting to Gaza.
Protests have broken out in Italy and Turkey over the treatment of the flotilla.
Italy’s largest union has called a general strike tomorrow, saying the “attack on civilian vessels carrying Italian citizens represents an extremely serious matter”.
Turkey’s foreign ministry called Israel’s interception an “attack” and “an act of terror” that endangered lives of those on board.
Gaza has been dealing with severe food shortages due to the ongoing war.
Image: Thunberg and activist Saif Abukeshek. Pic: Reuters/Nacho Doce
Agencies such as the UN accused Israel of deliberately slowing the delivery of supplies – something it denies.
However, the aid being carried by the flotilla is said to only be a symbolic amount of food and medicine.
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30:03
Will Trump’s Gaza plan bring peace?
Meanwhile, all eyes remain on Hamas and whether it will accept Donald Trump’s peace plan to end the two-year war, sparked by the group’s terror attack on Israel.
The 20-point proposal was unveiled alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House this week.
Hamas said it would study the plan and consult with other factions, but didn’t give an indication of when it would deliver its verdict.