The second Tory leadership race in just three months is underway following the extraordinary resignation of Liz Truss.
The now-outgoing PM was forced from office after just 44 days following a seismic few weeks in Westminster that saw her tax-slashing mini-budget crash and burn.
Ms Truss’s resignation, signalling the end of the shortest term by any prime minister in modern British history, followed a raft of humiliating U-turns, the loss of two of her most senior Cabinet ministers and an open revolt by Tory MPs.
All eyes are now on who could replace her – with speculation mounting that Boris Johnson could launch a spectacular comeback to frontline politics, just six weeks after he was officially ousted from the top job.
Party rules for the new leadership contest mean PM hopefuls would need the backing of at least 100 Tory MPs by Monday afternoon to face off against any other successful challenger in a vote of the membership.
This will rule out a number of candidates from running and means the maximum number of people able to stand is three.
Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the powerful 1922 backbench committee, said: “We fixed a high threshold but a threshold that should be achievable by any serious candidate who has a prospect of going through.”
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Who are the runners and riders?
Tory MPs are scrambling to find a replacement who can unite the party and turn around its fortunes after a series of dire polls predicted electoral wipe out.
Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coatessays former chancellor and Tory leadership finalist Rishi Sunak has signalled he is “very, very up for the job”.
And Suella Braverman – who resigned as home secretary on Wednesday– was highly critical of Ms Truss when she stepped down, in a move that allies believe shows she is also keen to step up to the plate.
Coates says: “The question now is who will stand aside and who will survive in an intense, week-long leadership contest.”
Nominations opened on Thursday and will close at 2pm on Monday – with a new leader to be chosen by Friday 28 October.
The final two candidates will take part in a hustings event organised with news broadcasters, before an online vote for members to choose who they want to lead the party.
However, we could have a new leader sooner than that.
One potential option is that MPs coalesce around one candidate, meaning the contest will be over on Monday if only one person is able to receive enough nominations.
‘Bring back Boris’
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Former culture secretary Nadine Dorries backs Johnson
On Thursday night, momentum appeared to be swinging behind Boris Johnson amid reports he will throw his hat in the ring.
Former culture secretary Nadine Dorries, a staunch Johnson ally, told Sky News she is confident he will meet the 100 MPs threshold.
“There is only one MP who has the mandate of the British public, who won a general election only three years ago with an 80-seat majority, and that was Boris Johnson,” Ms Dorries said.
“He is a known winner and that is certainly who I’m putting my name against because I want us to win the general election. Having a winner in place is what the party needs to survive.”
While multiple Tory MPs have expressed their support for a Johnson comeback, any attempt to return to frontline politics is proving divisive.
Senior backbencher Sir Roger Gale MP tweeted to remind people that the ex-prime minister, who resigned in a mire of sleaze, was still under investigation by the Privileges Committee for potentially misleading the House over partygate.
If found guilty, Mr Johnson could face recall proceedings that would leave him battling for his seat in the Commons if he receives a suspension of 10 days or more.
Sir Roger told Times Radio that, if Mr Johnson is voted back in as PM, he would resign from the Conservative party whip and stand as an independent.
Polling for the Conservatives was already dropping during Mr Johnson’s premiership as it became beset with scandals, including the ex-PM breaking his own lockdown laws.
The final straw was questions about his judgment over Chris Pincher, the then-Tory whip who was the centre of drunken groping allegations. That came on top of Mr Johnson’s attempts to change the rules to prevent the suspension of then-Conservative MP Owen Paterson after he broke lobbying rules.
Ms Truss officially took over from Mr Johnson on 6 September, with members favouring her tax-slashing plan for growth over Mr Sunak’s more conservative fiscal policies.
But just two weeks into the job, her disastrous mini-budget sparked chaos in the financial markets, leading to the sacking of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and a humiliating abandonment of the very economic policies that brought her into office.
Many MPs have voiced their support for Mr Sunak – who had warned Ms Truss that her economic policies were “immoral” and campaigned for fiscal responsibility during the last leadership race.
Jonathan Djanogly and Mark Garnier both tweeted their support for him late on Thursday night.
Richard Holden MP said that in the “difficult economic times, the party and the country needs a PM who has got the economic experience to deliver real stability over the next few years and get the ship of state back on an even keel – and that person is Mr Sunak”.
‘Last chance saloon’
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Labour leader Keir Starmer has spoken to Beth Rigby about Liz Truss’s resignation,
A vicious leadership contest would further divide an already split party which is about to see its third prime minister in the space of a few months – and many Tory MPs are calling for colleagues to unite behind the next leader, whoever that may be.
Justin Tomlinson said the leadership contest is the “last-chance saloon” for the party to maintain credibility, while former cabinet minister Robert Jenrick, warned the Tories face “extinction…if we get this wrong”.
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the Conservative Party has “shown it no longer has a mandate to govern”, adding that British people “deserve so much better than this revolving door of chaos”.
Speaking to reporters in front of his residence at Rideau Cottage, in the country’s capital, Ottawa, he said “internal battles” mean that he “cannot be the best option” in the next election.
“I don’t easily back down faced with a fight, especially a very important one for our party and the country. But I do this job because the interests of Canadians and the well-being of democracy is something that I hold dear.
“A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal Party will carry its values and ideals into that next election. I am excited to see that process unfold in the months ahead.”
Mr Trudeau, who has been prime minister since 2015, faced calls to quit from a chorus of his MPs amid poor showings in opinion polls.
He came under further pressure after his finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, resigned in December over clashes on policy.
The disagreements included how to handle possible US tariffs imposed by Donald Trump‘s incoming administration.
Mr Trudeau’s resignation comes as the polls show his party is likely to suffer a heavy defeat to the official opposition Conservatives in an election that must be held by late October.
The Liberals must now name an interim leader to take over as prime minister ahead of a special leadership convention.
Mr Trudeau came to power 10 years ago following a decade of Conservative Party rule and was initially praised for returning the country to its liberal past.
But he has become deeply unpopular with voters in recent years over a range of issues, including the soaring cost of food and housing and surging immigration.
He is the eldest son of Pierre Trudeau, one of Canada’s most famous prime ministers, who led the country from 1968 to 1979 and from 1980 to 1984.
The political upheaval comes at a difficult moment for Canada internationally.
US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on all Canadian goods if Ottawa does not stem what Mr Trump calls a flow of migrants and drugs into the US.
Many fewer of each cross into the US from Canada than from Mexico, which Mr Trump has also threatened.
Few one-time golden boys manage to retain their lustre long into political office.
Barack Obama just about held on to his, leaving the US presidency with his approval rating high despite his party’s 2016 loss to Donald Trump.
But Emmanuel Macron is faltering in France and Justin Trudeau steps down as head of Canada’sliberal party with his popularity in shreds. So much for Western liberal values.
In the high tides of inflation and immigration, those who were their supposed flag-bearers are no longer what electorates want.
For Mr Trudeau, it is a dramatic reckoning. His approval ratings have dropped from 65% at their highest in September 2016 to 22% now, according to the “Trudeau Tracker” from Canada’s non-profit Angus Reid Institute.
The sudden departure of his finance minister and key political ally Chrystia Freeland last month dealt his leadership a body blow, just as Canada readies itself for a potential trade war with the US which, she argued in a bracing resignation letter, his government was not taking seriously enough.
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“Parliament has been paralysed for months,” Trudeau says
The man Mr Trump recently trolled as “Governor of the ‘Great State of Canada’ or ’51st (US) state'”, Mr Trudeau was as close to Canadian political royalty as it gets.
The son of the country’s 15th prime minister, Pierre Trudeau, he was famously toasted by US president Richard Nixon as “the future prime minister of Canada” when he joined his father on a state visit as a toddler.
Aged five, he met the late Queen for the first time. “Thank you for making me feel so old”, she remarked drily at a re-meet in Malta almost 40 years later.
He has led Canada’s liberal party since 2013 and served as the country’s 23rd prime minister for almost a decade.
Mr Trudeau won a resounding electoral victory in 2015 and secured the premiership through two subsequent elections, though as head of a minority government.
He made significant inroads against poverty in Canada, worked hard on nation to nation reconciliation with Canada’s indigenous communities, secured an effective trade deal with the US and Mexico in 2016 and managed to keep the public mostly on-side through the COVID-19 pandemic.
But he was a polarising figure. Holidays in exotic climes like a trip to the Bahamas in 2016 to an island belonging to the Aga Khan made him seem elitist and out of touch.
There was embarrassment when blackface images surfaced from his early years as a teacher, for which he apologised profusely.
His supposed liberal credentials smacked of double standards when he invoked emergency powers to crush truckers’ protests in 2022.
But it was the economic aftermath of the pandemic, with Canada suffering an acute housing shortage, immigration leaping under his premiership and the cost of living hitting households across the board which really piled on the pressure.
In those, Canada is not unique. But the opposition conservatives and the public at large clearly want change, and Mr Trudeau has responded.
He has announced his intention to resign as party leader and prime minister after the Liberals selects their next leader.
Mr Trudeau’s legacy may shine brighter with a little hindsight. But now is not that moment.
The question is whether his conservative opposition will fare any better in an increasingly combative geopolitical environment if, as seems likely, a candidate of their choosing wins a federal election due at some point this year.
Donkey karts loaded with wrapped parcels of unknown goods weave around the large puddles of water left in the dried riverbed.
Young men quickly hop over laid bricks to bridge the puddles followed by women treading carefully with babies on their backs.
The Limpopo River’s seasonal dryness is a natural pathway for those moving intoSouth Africa from Zimbabwe illegally.
A sandy narrow beach undisturbed by border patrols with crossers chatting peacefully under trees on both banks as men furiously load and unload smuggled goods on the roadside.
Against the anti-immigration rage and xenophobia boiling over in South Africa’s urban centres, the tranquillity and ease of the border jumping is astonishingly calm.
“You can’t stop someone who is suffering. They have to find any means to come find food,” one man tells us anonymously as he crosses illegally.
At 55 years old, he remembers the 3,500-volt electric fence called the“snake of fire” installed here by the Apartheid regime.
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Hundreds of women and children escaping conflict in the late 1980s and early 1990s were electrocuted.
Today, people fleeing drought and economic strife are smuggled across or walking through border blindspots like this one.
“Now, it’s easy,” he says. “There is no border authority here.”
He crosses regularly and always illegally. While he laughs at the lack of border agents, he says he has been stopped by soldiers in the past.
“They send us back but then the next day you try to come back and it is fine.”
We find a few soldiers on our way back to the main road. They look confused by our presence but unphased. It is hard to believe they are unaware of the streams of people and goods moving across the dried riverbed just a few hundred metres away.
Border ‘fence’ trampled and full of holes
We drive along the border fence to get to the official border post into Zimbabwe, Beitbridge.
“Fence” is a generous term for the knee-height barbed wire laid across 25 miles of South Africa’s northern edges in 2020. Some sections are completely trampled, and others are gaping with holes.
The concrete fortress is a drastic change to the soft, sandy riverbed. Queues dismantle and reassemble as eager crowds rush from one building to another as instructions change.
Zimbabweans can live, work and study in South Africa on a Zimbabwean exemption permit, but many like Precious, a mother-of-three, cannot even afford a passport.
When we meet her at a women’s shelter in the border town of Musina, she says she only has $30 (£23.90) to find work in South Africa and that a passport costs $50 (£39.80).
“My husband is disabled and can’t work or do anything. I’m the only one doing everything – school, food, everything. I’m the one who has to take care of the kids and that situation makes me come here to find something,” she says tearfully before breaking down.
The shelter next door is home to trafficked children that were rescued. Other shelters are full of men looking for work.
Musina is a stagnant sanctuary for Zimbabweans searching for a better life who become paralysed here – a sign of the declining state of Zimbabwe and the growing hostility deeper in South Africa.
In Johannesburg, South Africa’s economic centre, illegal immigrants are facing raids and deportations organised by the Ministry of Home Affairs at the behest of popular discontent.
The heavy-handed escalation in the interior sits in stark contrast to the lax border control.
“I wonder how serious our government is about dealing with immigration,” says Nomzamo Zondo, human rights attorney and executive director of the Socio-Economic Rights Institute of South Africa (SERI), as we walk through Johannesburg’s derelict inner city.
“I think part of it is that the South Africa we want to build is one that wants to welcome its neighbours and doesn’t forget the people that welcomed us when we didn’t have a home – and that is why I think they are so poor at maintaining the borders.”
She adds: “But then the call has to be one that says once you are here, how do we make sure you are regularised here, that you know who you are, and contribute to the economy at this point in time.”
Climate of anti-migrant hate
In 1994 as South Africa’s first democratically elected president, Nelson Mandela ordered that all electric fences be taken down.
His dream for South Africa to become a pan-African haven for civilians of neighbouring countries that provided sanctuary for fighters in the anti-Apartheid movement was criticised by local constituents back then.
Now in a climate of increasing anti-migrant hate, that vision is rejected outright.
“I think that is the highest level of sell-out. When South Africans were in exile, they were in camps and they were restricted to go to other parts of those countries,” says Bungani Thusi, a member of anti-immigrant movement Operation Dudula, at a protest in Soweto.
He is wearing faux military fatigues and has the upright position of an officer heading into battle.
“Why do you allow foreigners to go all over South Africa and run businesses and make girlfriends?” he adds, with all the seriousness of protest.
“South Africans can’t even have their own girlfriends because the foreigners have taken over the girlfriend space.”