Connect with us

Published

on

The final straw for Liz Truss’s premiership was a collapse of confidence among Conservative MPs, but the underlying cause is an economic crisis she first ignored, then deepened, and will now define her successor’s time in office.

The Conservatives are about to discover that they can change leaders but not the economic hole they have dug, or the ideological splits that did much of the work.

Ms Truss got into Number 10 on the promise of “growth growth growth”, to the delight of small-state free marketeer colleagues who coalesced around her candidacy only at the last moment.

Her decision to deliver that ambition by offering extravagant unfunded tax cuts without the ballast of an Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast proved fatal, spooking markets and shattering her prospectus for government.

While she’s gone her emergency rip-cord Chancellor Jeremy Hunt remains, his priority to recover economic credibility and financial stability.

That process began on Monday with the reversal of most of the mini-budget tax plans, and a clear signal of tax rises and spending cuts to come.

Investors are for now reassured – as Ms Truss fell so did the cost of government borrowing on long-term gilt markets and the pound strengthened – but this is just the start.

More on Liz Truss

Next week, as the Conservative parliamentary party runs a five-day leadership election, Mr Hunt and the Treasury will be finalising the fiscal statement that could have a far greater impact.

That statement is currently scheduled to be made on Monday 31 October, after the new prime minister has been selected and a delay cannot be ruled out despite the risk of market disapproval.

If that timetable holds, however, the calculations and decisions that will shape public spending for the next five years will have to be made as the candidates topple.

The black hole in the public finances has been calculated as at least £60bn, deepening to closer to £70bn after the mini-budget drove up borrowing costs and the price of servicing existing debt.

Typically the OBR produces five forecasts in the run-up to a fiscal statement, containing its five-year view of the prospects for economic growth and the cost of public spending.

Next Tuesday it is due deliver the fourth draft, which will reflect the tax-reversals announced on Monday and presumably the cost of maintaining the triple-lock on pensions confirmed by Ms Truss on Wednesday, plus any new measures that are not yet public.

The fifth and final version, containing any additional measures, is due to be delivered on Thursday.

Reversing tax cuts has closed the gap by around £30bn but there is much more to find, and the search for policy measures that can boost growth has helped drive the chaos of the last week.

The rancorous resignation of Suella Braverman as home secretary on Wednesday offered an insight. While she cited an innocent breach of communication protocol, her allies pointed to a fundamental difference in opinion over immigration policy.

They claim she opposed plans by Ms Truss and Mr Hunt to liberalise immigration restrictions allowing more high-skilled workers.

There is also pressure to expand the shortage-occupation list, which grants an exception to post-Brexit visa restrictions, across a range of professions, including engineers to help deliver on the government’s broadband targets.

Both would boost the growth side of the OBR’s ledger, easing the demand for spending cuts, but this economic reality grinds directly against Brexit ideology.

There are several other pro-growth strategies that run into trouble among Conservative MPs. Planning reform to allow more development and housebuilding is problematic in leafy southern constituencies, onshore wind is barely more popular, and fracking delivered the final seismic blow to Ms Truss on Wednesday night.

While the Conservative’s squabble and markets wait for the OBR and the chancellor, business looks on aghast, uncertain whether what they hear today will still apply tomorrow.

The CBI, shop stewards for British big business and traditionally close to the Conservatives, delivered an unusually blunt response to the PM’s departure, without a single word for Ms Truss herself

“The politics of recent weeks have undermined the confidence of people, businesses, markets and global investors in Britain. That must now come to an end if we are to avoid yet more harm to households and firms,” said director general Tony Danker.

“Stability is key. The next prime minister will need to act to restore confidence from day one. They will need to deliver a credible fiscal plan for the medium term as soon as possible, and a plan for the long-term growth of our economy.”

They are not alone in that view.

Continue Reading

Business

Shawbrook aims to kickstart London IPO market with £2bn float

Published

on

By

Shawbrook aims to kickstart London IPO market with £2bn float

The owners of Shawbrook Group, the mid-sized British lender, are drawing up plans to kickstart London’s moribund listings arena with a stock market flotation, valuing it at more than £2bn.

Sky News has learnt that BC Partners and Pollen Street Capital, which took Shawbrook private in 2017, are close to appointing Goldman Sachs to oversee work on a potential initial public offering.

Other investment banks, possibly including Barclays, are expected to be added in the near future.

Shawbrook’s shareholders are said to be keen to take the company public during the first half of this year.

People close to the situation cautioned that no decision to proceed with a listing had been taken, and that it would be dependent upon market conditions.

If it does go ahead, Shawbrook would almost certainly rank among the largest companies to list in London during the first half of 2025.

Bankers and investors are also waiting to see whether British regulators give the green light to a flotation for Shein, the Chinese-founded online fashion giant, which would be one of the City’s biggest-ever floats if it takes place.

More on Banking

Overall, London is fighting to overturn the impression that its public markets have become a troubled arena for public companies, afflicted by a lack of liquidity and weaker valuations than they might attract in the US.

In recent months, that perception has intensified with the decision of Ashtead, the FTSE-100 equipment rental company, to move its primary listing to New York.

Shawbrook, which employs close to 1,600 people, has 550,000 customers.

Founded in 2011, it was established as a specialist savings and lending institution, providing loans for home improvement projects and weddings, as well as business and real estate lending.

It is among a crop of mid-tier lenders, including OneSavings Bank, Aldermore Bank and Paragon Bank, which have collectively become a significant part of Britain’s banking landscape since the last financial crisis.

The bid to take Shawbrook public this year will come a year after its owners were reported to have hired Bank of America and Morgan Stanley to explore a sale or listing.

It explored a similar process in 2022 but abandoned it amid volatile market conditions.

The company has also sought to position itself at the heart of potential consolidation among the sector’s leading players.

Read more from Sky News:
British man killed in New Orleans attack named
Judge orders Trump to be sentenced in hush money case

In the autumn of 2023, Shawbrook approached Metro Bank about a possible takeover as the latter bank battled to stay afloat.

A series of proposals was rejected by Metro Bank’s board.

Just weeks earlier, Shawbrook sounded out the Co-operative Bank about a £3.5bn all-share merger in an attempt to pre-empt a wider auction of the former mutually owned lender.

That, too, was rebuffed, with the Co-operative Bank completing its sale to the Coventry Building Society this week.

Third-quarter results for Shawbrook released to bondholders in November disclosed 18% growth in its loan book on an annualised basis to just over £15bn.

BC Partners and Pollen Street own equal stakes in Shawbrook, with its management team also owning a minority.

The bank is run by chief executive Marcelino Castrillo.

“We continue to see promising opportunities for expansion and value creation across our core markets, including SME and real estate,” Mr Castrillo said in November.

“The combination of an exceptional customer franchise, a more stable macroeconomic outlook and increasing customer confidence means we are well-positioned to continue to deliver on our strategic ambitions throughout the remainder of 2024 and beyond.”

This weekend, Shawbrook, BC Partners and Pollen Street all declined to comment.

Continue Reading

Business

Donald Trump tells UK to ‘get rid of windmills’ and says raising windfall tax on North Sea oil is ‘big mistake’

Published

on

By

Donald Trump tells UK to 'get rid of windmills' and says raising windfall tax on North Sea oil is 'big mistake'

Donald Trump has said the UK is making “a very big mistake” in its fossil fuel policy – and should “get rid of windmills”.

In a post on Friday on his social media platform, Truth Social, Mr Trump shared news from November of a US oil producer pulling out of the North Sea, a major oil-producing region off the Scottish coast.

“The UK is making a very big mistake. Open up the North Sea. Get rid of windmills!”, the US president-elect wrote.

The Texan oil producer Apache said at the time it was withdrawing from the North Sea by 2029 in part due to the increase in windfall tax on fossil fuel producers.

North Sea oil rig
Image:
North Sea oil rig. Pic: Reuters

The head of Apache’s parent company APA Corporation said in early November it had concluded the investment required to comply with UK regulations, “coupled with the onerous financial impact of the energy profits levy [windfall tax] makes production of hydrocarbons beyond the year 2029 uneconomic”.

Chief executive John Christmann added that “substantial investment” will be necessary to comply with regulatory requirements.

Mr Trump used a three-word campaign pledge “drill, baby, drill” during his successful election campaign, claiming he will increase oil and gas production during his second administration.

In the October budget announcement, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves raised the windfall tax levied on profits of energy producers to 38%.

Called the energy price levy, it is a rise from the 25% introduced by Rishi Sunak in 2022 as energy prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Many oil and gas businesses reported record profits in the wake of the price hike.

The tax was intended to support households struggling with high gas and electricity bills amid a broader cost of living crisis.

Apache is just one of a glut of firms that made decisions to alter their North Sea extraction due to the Labour policy.

Read more
Business, the economy and the pound in your pocket – what to expect from 2025

Energy bills become more expensive

Even before the new government was elected, three companies, Jersey Oil and Gas, Serica Energy and Neo Energy – announced they were delaying, by a year, the planned start of production at the Buchan oilfield 120 miles to the north-east of Aberdeen.

Continue Reading

Business

SME lender Tide rises to challenge with new fundraising

Published

on

By

SME lender Tide rises to challenge with new fundraising

Tide, the business banking services platform, has hired advisers to orchestrate a fresh share sale as it pursues rapid growth in the UK and overseas.

Sky News understands that Tide has been holding talks with investment banks including Morgan Stanley about launching a primary fundraising worth in excess of £50m in the coming months.

The share sale may include both issuing new stock and enabling existing investors to participate by offloading part of their holdings, according to insiders.

It was unclear at what valuation any new funding would be raised.

Tide was founded in 2015 by George Bevis and Errol Damelin, before launching two years later.

It describes itself as the leading business financial platform in the UK, offering business accounts and related banking services.

The company also provides its 650,000 SME ‘members’ in the UK a set of connected administrative solutions from invoicing to accounting.

More on Banking

It now boasts a roughly 11% market share in Britain, along with 400,000 SMEs in India.

Tide, which employs about 2,000 people, also launched in Germany last May.

The company’s investors include Apax Partners, Augmentum Fintech and LocalGlobe.

Chaired by the City grandee Sir Donald Brydon.

Tide declined to comment on Friday.

Continue Reading

Trending