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Just last month Liz Truss told Britons they could “ride out the storm” in her first speech as prime minister – now she has been warned “the game is up” as rumours swirl of plots to oust her.

A number of Tory MPs have now publicly called for her to step down, while former chancellor George Osborne has predicted she will most likely be gone “before Christmas”.

But who could replace Ms Truss if she is forced out as Conservative Party leader?

Here, Sky News looks at the runners and riders – and who is the favourite for the job.

Truss has ’12 hours to save her job’ – live politics updates

Rishi Sunak

FILE - British Conservative Party member Rishi Sunak launches his campaign for the Conservative Party leadership, in London, Tuesday, July 12, 2022. Britain...s next prime minister will take office amid turmoil: galloping inflation, a war in Ukraine, souring relations with China, a changing climate. But not all those issues are getting equal attention as Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and former Treasury chief Sunak vie for the votes of about 180,000 Conservative Party members. (AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali, File)

The former chancellor, who was runner-up to Ms Truss in the Tory leadership race, is favourite with the bookmakers to replace her if she is ousted.

He warned his rival that her tax-cutting plans would send the economy into free fall, accusing her of “fairytale economics” as she promised unfunded tax cuts.

Following the fallout from the mini-budget, supporters of Mr Sunak believe he has been vindicated. One MP who supported him in the leadership race told the Telegraph: “Everything he said has come to pass.”

Mr Sunak won every voting round among MPs in the Tory leadership race but there are question marks over whether he could reunite the party, having been seen to have played a key role in Boris Johnson’s exit as PM.

Odds: 15/8 – favourite (Odds Checker average)

Penny Mordaunt

Penny Mourdant endorsed Liz Truss

Senior Conservatives have reportedly held talks about replacing Ms Truss with a joint ticket of Mr Sunak and Penny Mordaunt.

The leader of the Commons finished in third place in this summer’s Tory leadership race before she backed Ms Truss’s bid.

However, she has since taken on the prime minister after suggesting that benefits should rise in line with inflation.

The former defence secretary also caused a stir at the Tory conference earlier this month when she said the party’s “comms is s***”.

In messages shared in Conservative Party WhatsApp groups, leaked to Sky News, Tory MP Crispin Blunt called for Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt to take over.

“Step forward Rishi and Penny, with our support and encouragement in the interests of us all,” he wrote.

Ms Mordaunt was sent to the Commons on behalf of the PM to answer an urgent question on the sacking of former chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on Monday.

Denying that Ms Truss was hiding “under a desk”, Ms Mordaunt acknowledged the swirling rumours around the possibility of a joint ticket, telling MPs: “I fully understand the optics of me appearing at the despatch box.”

Odds: 7/2 (Odds Checker average)

Jeremy Hunt

The new chancellor, brought in to replace the sacked Kwasi Kwarteng, is now widely seen as the most powerful figure in government as he attempts to reshape the PM’s own economic plans to reassure the markets.

He has insisted that Ms Truss is still in charge of her government, but has scrapped practically all of the economic vision that brought her to power.

Seen by many in his party as a safe pair of hands, Mr Hunt has twice unsuccessfully tried to become Tory leader and has previously served as foreign secretary, health secretary and culture secretary.

In the leadership race this year, he backed Rishi Sunak over Ms Truss after getting eliminated from the contest himself in the first round of voting.

He was in the final two contenders to be Tory leader in 2019 – but lost to Boris Johnson by 66% to 34% in the members’ vote.

Conservative MP Crispin Blunt, who has called on Ms Truss to resign, has said Mr Hunt should be the party’s next leader.

“Jeremy Hunt has in a few short days impressively exercised his known personal qualities and has made the first critical contribution to restoring the primacy of serving the national interest. He should complete this work as our next prime minister,” he said.

But Mr Hunt has seemingly ruled himself out of a third run at the top job, telling Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby: “I rule it out, Mrs Hunt rules it out, three Hunt children rule it out.”

Odds: 9/2 (Odds Checker average)

Read more:
Jeremy Hunt – who is the UK’s new chancellor?
How could Liz Truss be removed?

Ben Wallace

British Secretary of Defence Ben Wallace walks outside Downing Street in London, Britain, July 12, 2022. REUTERS/Toby Melville

The defence secretary and former soldier is widely respected for the role he has played in the UK’s support for Ukraine.

He stayed neutral in the Tory leadership race before eventually backing Ms Truss.

There are doubts over whether he would want to be leader, having ruled himself out of this summer’s race despite being considered a frontrunner after “careful consideration and discussing with colleagues and family”.

The defence secretary told The Times on Tuesday that he wants to remain in his post amid speculation he could be a unity candidate if Ms Truss departs.

Mr Wallace rebuked his Conservative colleagues for playing “political parlour games”, telling the newspaper: “The public wants stability and security and if the government fails to deliver that then they will send us into opposition.”

Asked if he wanted the keys to Number 10, he said: “I want to be the secretary of state for defence until I finish. I love the job I do and we have more to do. I want the prime minister to be the prime minister and I want to do this job.”

Read more: What caused ‘manhandling’ and ‘jabbing at people’ during Commons fracking vote?

Mr Wallace’s only cabinet post has been defence secretary, which he has held since July 2019.

But he has signalled he would likely quit if the government ditches a key pledge to boost defence spending.

On Monday, new chancellor Jeremy Hunt refused to commit to spending 3% of GDP on defence, telling Sky News’ political editor Beth Rigby he was “not giving any answers on any specific elements” of tax and spending policy.

Odds: 17/2 (Odds Checker average)

Boris Johnson

Outgoing British Prime Minister Boris Johnson delivers a speech on his last day in office, outside Downing Street, in London Britain September 6, 2022. REUTERS/Phil Noble

In his farewell address as PM, Mr Johnson fuelled speculation about a future return to frontline politics despite promising his “most fervent support” to his successor Ms Truss.

Mr Johnson compared himself to Roman statesman Cincinnatus, who battled against invasion before returning to his farm. According to tradition, Cincinnatus later returned to serve a second term.

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Some Tory MPs are reportedly openly suggesting that the party asks Mr Johnson to return to Downing Street, despite being ousted just three months ago amid fury over the partygate and Chris Pincher scandals.

Former culture secretary and ally of the former PM, Nadine Dorries, is one of those openly calling for Mr Johnson’s return.

“There is no unity candidate. No one has enough support,” she posted on social media.

“Only one MP has a mandate from party members and from the British public – a mandate with an 80 seat majority. Boris Johnson.”

It is unclear whether the former prime minister would be interested in going back.

Odds: 7/1 (Odds Checker average)

Suella Braverman

Home Secretary Suella Braverman seen during the Conservative Party annual conference at the International Convention Centre in Birmingham. Picture date: Tuesday October 4, 2022.

Ms Braverman was the first to declare she was running to be the next Conservative Party leader in the summer, praised as a figurehead of the right of the party for her hard-line views on Brexit and for denouncing “woke nonsense”.

She threw her hat in the ring for the Tory leadership even before Boris Johnson had officially resigned.

“I love this country. My parents came here with absolutely nothing and it was Britain that gave them hope, security and opportunity and afforded me incredible opportunities in education and my career,” she told ITV at the time.

“I owe a debt of gratitude to this country and to serve as prime minister would be the greatest honour so yes I will try.”

After her shock resignation for sharing secure information through a private email on Wednesday, Ms Braverman lashed out at Ms Truss’s “tumultuous” premiership and accused the government of “breaking key pledges” – including on immigration policy.

Ms Braverman, a former attorney general, only became home secretary on 6 September when Ms Truss brought her in to replace Priti Patel.

Her tenure as home secretary has been controversial, having accused Tory critics who successfully forced Ms Truss into U-turning over plans to scrap the top rate of income tax of a “coup”.

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Boris Johnson considered raiding Dutch warehouse during pandemic to retrieve COVID-19 vaccines

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Boris Johnson considered raiding Dutch warehouse during pandemic to retrieve COVID-19 vaccines

Boris Johnson claims he considered authorising a raid on a warehouse in the Netherlands during the pandemic to retrieve COVID-19 vaccines.

In his upcoming memoir, he described meeting senior military officials in March 2021 to discuss the plans, which he admitted were “nuts”.

Another extract from his upcoming book, released by the Daily Mail, describes Mr Johnson trying to convince the Duke of Sussex not to move to the United States.

He said Downing Street and Buckingham Palace asked him to speak to Prince Harry in January 2020, hours after announcing he and his wife Meghan planned to step away from royal life.

According to Mr Johnson, who was prime minister at the time, there was “a ridiculous business… when they made me try to persuade Harry to stay. Kind of manly pep talk. Totally hopeless”, the Daily Mail reported.

The men met for 20 minutes on the sidelines of a UK-Africa investment summit in London’s Docklands.

The Duke of Sussex (left) with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as they attend the UK-Africa Investment Summit at the Intercontinental Hotel London in 2020
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Boris Johnson said he held a ‘manly pep talk’ with Prince Harry at a summit in 2020. Pic: PA

The Duke of Sussex (left) with Prime Minister Boris Johnson, as they attend the UK-Africa Investment Summit at the Intercontinental Hotel London in 2020
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Boris Johnson claims he was asked to try to convince Prince Harry not to move to the US. Pic: PA

Meanwhile, the latest extract describes Mr Johnson writing about a point during the pandemic when AstraZeneca was “trying, in vain” to export the vaccine to the UK from Holland.

More on Boris Johnson

At the time, the AstraZeneca jabs were at the heart of a cross-Channel row over exports.

He wrote he “had commissioned some work on whether it might be technically feasible to launch an aquatic raid on a warehouse in Leiden, in the Netherlands, and to take that which was legally ours and which the UK desperately needed”.

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He believed the EU was treating the UK “with malice and with spite” due to the European rollout being slower than in the UK.

The extract says military chiefs told Mr Johnson the plan was “certainly feasible”, using rigid inflatable boats to navigate Dutch canals.

But the senior officer said the UK would “have to explain why we are effectively invading a long-standing Nato ally”.

“They wanted to stop us getting the five million doses, and yet they showed no real sign of wanting to use the AstraZeneca doses themselves,” Mr Johnson wrote.

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UK weather: Wind warning issued by Met Office after week of heavy rain and floods

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UK weather: Wind warning issued by Met Office after week of heavy rain and floods

A weather warning for wind has been issued for Wales and southwest England on Sunday after rain battered parts of the UK this week.

The yellow warning covers Cardiff and West Wales, as well as most of the South West from Weston Super Mare in the north and Swanage in the south to Penzance, Cornwall.

According to the Met Office, it begins at 9am on Sunday and lasts until midnight.

The latest weather forecast for your area

They said in the warning Sunday will start dry and clear for most of the country, but wind and rain will then move in from the South West.

Wind speeds are set to get up to 55mph in affected areas, and possibly reach 60mph in exposed coastal regions.

A warning for wind has been issued for Sunday. Pic: Met Office
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A warning for wind has been issued for Sunday. Pic: Met Office

Gusts will be accompanied by outbreaks of rain, which could lead to surface water on roads and public transport delays, according to the Met Office.

Winds will then gradually ease across Wales and inland parts of southwest England throughout Sunday evening, but the weather agency warned it may remain fairly windy along some coasts overnight.

In their outlook for Monday to Wednesday, the Met Office said “unsettled” conditions will remain for the start of the next week, “with heavy rain and brisk winds and temperature on the cool side”.

It added conditions will be “slowly brightening up from the west as we head through Tuesday and into Wednesday”.

It comes after heavy rain and flooding struck across the UK this week, with an amber warning issued by the Met Office.

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As a result of the downpours, central and southern counties in England have already experienced more than 250% of their average September rainfall.

The Environment Agency said around 650 properties were flooded in Bedfordshire, Northamptonshire and the Home Counties.

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From Monday: House flooded as heavy rain hits UK

Areas affected by the heavy rain included Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Cambridgeshire, Leicestershire and the West Midlands, which were hit by flash floods.

The Met Office said the regions could have had 30-40mm of rainfall within three hours.

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The children who kill: Are they getting younger?

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The children who kill: Are they getting younger?

When 19-year-old Shawn Seesahai was beaten and hacked to death in a savage machete attack in a Wolverhampton park, detectives were shocked to discover his killers were just 12 years old.

Days earlier, in another part of the country, Alfie Lewis, 15, was stabbed to death by a 14-year-old boy outside a primary school in Leeds.

Later the same month, a girl and boy went on trial in Manchester for what was described as the “sadistic” knife murder of 16-year-old Brianna Ghey when they were both aged 15.

Murders carried out by children have always horrified us as a society – but are they getting more common or are killers getting younger?

A Sky News analysis of the available Office for National Statistics data on the number of suspects aged under 16 who have been convicted of homicide – murder, manslaughter and infanticide – shows a relatively flat trendline from 2006/7 to 2022/3.

The percentage of homicide convictions going to under-16s compared with other ages doubled over 10 years, however, from about 1 in 50 in 2012/13 to 1 in 25 in 2022/23.

The 2022/23 figure is the highest since at least 2008/09, but as the percentage of under-16s is low overall the averages can be heavily skewed by relatively few convictions.

Percentage of under 16s convicted of homicide
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Percentage of under-16s convicted of homicide

‘Much more serious and extreme’

Dr Simon Harding, a criminology expert, thinks there’s been “an increase in serious violence in young people” and that there is a greater “acceptance of extreme levels of violence between” children.

“Even something that might have been settled with fisticuffs or anti-social behaviour can suddenly dramatically turn into something much more serious and extreme,” he says.

“What 10 years ago might have been a punch in the face, five years ago might have been a stab to the arm or leg is now a stab to the neck or heart, which can lead to death.”

Bardia Shojaeifard was found guilty of murder after a jury heard how he attacked Alfie on his way home on 7 November last year “in revenge” for an altercation a week earlier.

A picture recovered from the phone of Bardia Shojaeifard shows him posing with a knife.
Pic: West Yorkshire Police
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Shojaeifard posed with knives. Pic: West Yorkshire Police

He had posed for pictures with knives and took a 13cm-long kitchen knife he used to kill Alfie from his home with him to school in the Horsforth area of Leeds.

Sentencing him to life detention with a minimum term of 13 years in June, a judge described Shojaeifard as “outwardly normal” but with a “worrying interest in knives”.

Shawn, who had been walking through Stowlawn playing fields in Wolverhampton with a friend on 13 November last year, was struck on his back, legs and skull, while the fatal wound was more than 20cm deep and punctured his heart.

Read more:
Children and teenagers convicted of knife killings
Grieving sister shocked by age of killers

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One of Shawn’s killers poses with a machete

The boys responsible, the UK’s youngest knife murderers – who were detained for at least eight-and-a-half years – are believed to be the youngest children to be found guilty of murder since Robert Thompson and Jon Venables.

Thompson and Venables were aged just 10 when they abducted, tortured and murdered two-year-old James Bulger in 1993 and 11 when they were found guilty of murder.

James Bulger seen on CCTV being led away before his murder
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James Bulger seen on CCTV being led away before his murder

A quarter of a century earlier, 11-year-old Mary Bell was sentenced to life detention in 1968 after being found guilty of manslaughter for fatally strangling two boys, aged four and three.

She was also aged just 10 at the time she killed her first victim.

Bell was 10 when she strangled her first victim. Pic: PA
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Bell was 10 when she strangled her first victim. Pic: PA

But Sharon Carr is believed to be the youngest girl in the country to have committed murder.

Carr was 12 when she fatally stabbed and mutilated stranger Katie Rackliff, 18, after she left a nightclub in Camberley, Surrey, in 1992, but she wasn’t convicted for another five years.

In another crime that shocked the nation, Ricky Preddie was 13 and his brother Danny was 12 when they killed 10-year-old schoolboy Damilola Taylor in 2000, although they weren’t jailed for his manslaughter until 2006.

Damilola Taylor. Pic: PA
Image:
Damilola Taylor. Pic: PA

Is there now a greater ‘willingness to inflict pain’?

So there have always been cases of children who commit murder and other shocking crimes, but Dr Harding says: “We just tend to forget.”

However, from his experience preparing expert reports on court cases involving gang crime, exploitation and modern slavery, he says he has noticed a greater “willingness to inflict pain and suffering”.

Earlier this year, Scarlett Jenkinson and Eddie Ratcliffe were jailed for life with minimum terms of 22 years and 20 years respectively after they were found guilty of murdering Brianna when they were both aged just 15.

Brianna Ghey's killers  Scarlett Jenkinson and Eddie Ratcliffe
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Brianna Ghey’s killers – Scarlett Jenkinson and Eddie Ratcliffe

Jenkinson lured the vulnerable teenager, who was transgender, to Linear Park in the village of Culcheth, near Warrington, where she was stabbed 28 times in the head, neck, chest and back with a hunting knife on 11 February last year.

The pair had a fascination with violence and torture, prepared a “kill list” and meticulously planned Brianna’s “frenzied and ferocious” murder for weeks, their trial heard.

Jurors were told it was “difficult to fathom” how they could share such “dark thoughts” and carry out such a “disturbing” crime.

Beyond the high-profile cases that attract significant media attention, much of the country’s gang violence, including children killing other children, is largely hidden from the public, says Dr Harding.

He’s seeing “quite extreme things that wouldn’t happen a few years ago”, such as disabled people subjected to levels of cruelty bordering on torture, and young women raped and waterboarded by the people forcing them to sell drugs.

A different Dr Harding, forensic psychiatrist Dr Duncan Harding, works with adults and children who commit serious crimes. He says we really don’t know if killers are getting younger or youth violent crime is increasing because the evidence just isn’t there.

But the reporting of crime and the expansion of social media use means cases which may not have passed the threshold for widespread coverage in the past gain more traction, adding to a perception that it is.

Number of under 16s convicted of homicide
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Number of under-16s convicted of homicide

Percentage of under 16s convicted of homicide
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Percentage of under-16s convicted of homicide

Dehumanisation is spreading’

Even if youth violence isn’t on the rise, the “horrifying” crimes we see reported aren’t acceptable and we have to, as a society, try to understand what’s going on and try to improve things, Dr Duncan Harding adds.

The psychiatrist, who has provided expert evidence in court cases involving homicide, serious violence and terrorism, and has recently released his memoir The Criminal Mind, says the “dehumanisation” seen in gang violence seems to be spreading beyond gangs.

Our divided society is suffering an existential crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic, which is exacerbated by social media, he says, and he also highlights cuts to services for young people due to austerity as a potential factor.

But “stripping away youth clubs isn’t going to in itself lead to someone who’s going to stab or kill someone”, he says, and children don’t always commit violent crimes because of mental illness or difficulties in their lives.

“Obviously, they’re not normal, well-adjusted people, but in my experience, it’s not as straightforward as that either,” he says. “I don’t think that all offenders are victims.”

Shawn Seesahai, who was killed in a machete attack in Wolverhampton. Pic provided by West Midlands Police via Becky Cotterill
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Shawn Seesahai was killed in a machete attack. Pic: West Midlands Police

‘You have to have proper sentencing for knife crime’

The potential solutions are just as complicated – the psychiatrist suggests a public health approach that recognises the “epidemic” of knife crime among vulnerable young children, with schools, health workers and police working together to spot the early warning signs.

But he also supports the wider use of stop-and-search and the government ban on so-called zombie-style knives to try to keep weapons out of children’s hands, and says there need to be consequences at the point where youngsters are carrying knives.

Shawn’s parents urge children to “think about what they’re doing” and not to carry a weapon, but want to see tougher sentences for youngsters like the boys who killed their son.

“You have to have a proper sentencing for knife crime,” says his father Suresh Seesahai.

“Murder is murder. Murder is no coming back. If you murder someone they can’t come back… Life sentence is the best for you.”

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