The language used by Elon Musk about Tesla’s self-driving effort is changing, and it is muddying the timeline for the automaker to deliver on its promise.
Musk use to make statements that made him sound supremely confident that Tesla could soon deliver a self-driving system and virtually all vehicles the automaker produced since 2016 through a software update.
During Tesla’s Autonomy Day in 2019, he made so many comments that promised that Tesla would achieve full self-driving capabilities that we were able to produce a video of three straight minutes of Musk promising Tesla delivering a self-driving system:
As you can see in this video, Musk was talking about “robotaxis” and “not having to touch the steering wheel” or even not needing to “look out the window” at the time.
He was also talking about Tesla delivering those capabilities in 2020.
Two years later, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability, or FSD, is still in beta – it requires the driver to be attentive at all times, and system disengagements are quite frequent.
Tesla is not only behind Musk’s schedule to deliver on the system, but now Musk has been changing the goalpost lately.
The CEO has already stopped talking about the biggest promises, like “1 million robotaxis by the end of the year.” Instead, he has been talking about a wider release of Tesla’s FSD Beta, which again is extremely far from a robot taxi service.
Now during a conference call following the release of Tesla’s Q3 2022 financial results, Musk is again being much more careful about the language he uses around Tesla’s self-driving effort.
He again talked about a wider release of FSD Beta:
This quarter, we expect to go to wide release of Full Self-Driving Beta in North America. So, anyone who has ordered a Full Self-Driving package will have access to the FSD beta program this year, probably about a month from now.
But where things got dicey was when Musk was directly asked by an analyst when will Tesla deliver a level 4 or level 5 self-driving system. Those are the levels where drivers don’t have to pay attention.
Musk’s answer was vague, to say the least, and the comment was much weaker than his previous promises:
Well, there’s this debate of what’s the interventions per mile and maybe safety interventions per mile. Like we’re not saying that that’s quite ready to have no one behind the wheel. It’s just that you will almost never have to touch the control, vehicle controllers. So, like when I came to Giga Texas from a friend’s house today, I never touched any of the controls already here.
And then there is a longer process called the march of 9s, which is how many 9s reliability do you need before you could really be comfortable saying that the car could drive with no one in it? And there’s some subjectivity as to how many 9s you need. But I think we’ll be pretty close to having enough 9s that you’re going to have no one in the car by the end of this year. And certainly, without a question, that’s in my mind next year.
The CEO then added that Tesla plans to have an FSD update next year that will be used to “show to regulators that the car is safer than the average human.”
Electrek’s Take
Musk is obviously being more careful in his choice of words, but he is still talking about Tesla achieving level 4 or 5 next year.
The most frustrating part is that he obviously doesn’t have much credibility when it comes to this timeline anymore, but he keeps justifying this prediction by saying “you just have to look at the performance of Tesla FSD beta.”
My experience with FSD Beta certainly doesn’t suggest that, but some have had better experiences, especially in California, where there are more owners to train the system.
However, talking to the more unbiased FSD Beta testers, I found it hard to see a clear path to Tesla achieving level 4 or 5 autonomy within the next year.
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Former reality TV contestant Sean Duffy. Photo by Gage Skidmore
America voted for inflation, and it got it today, as republicans running the Department of Transportation bowed to their oil donors and finalized a rule to make your cars less efficient, thus costing America an extra $23 billion in fuel costs.
Sean Duffy, who was appointed as Secretary of Transportation on the back of the transportation “expertise” he showed as a contestant on Road Rules: All Stars, a reality TV travel game show, announced the rule on his first day in office.
His original memo promised a review of all existing fuel economy standards, which require manufacturers to make more efficient vehicles which save you money on fuel.
Specifically, the rule finalized today targets the Corporate Average Fuel Economy standard (CAFE), which was just improved last year by President Biden’s DOT, saving American drivers $23 billion in fuel costs by meaning they need to buy less fuel overall. The savings from the Biden rule could have been higher, but were softened from the original proposal due to automaker lobbying.
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Sierra Club’s Transportation for All director, Katherine Garcia, responded to the new Duffy rule’s finalization with a statement:
“The Trump administration’s deregulatory, pro-polluter transportation agenda will only increase costs for Americans. Making our vehicles less fuel efficient hurts families by forcing them to pay more at the pump. This action puts the well-being of our communities at risk in every way imaginable. It will lead to fewer clean vehicle options for consumers, squeeze our wallets, endanger our health, and increase climate pollution. The Sierra Club will continue to push back against this administration’s dangerous clean transportation rollbacks.”
The rule had been filed on Mar 16, and review was completed yesterday. Oddly enough, the rule was filed as “not economically significant,” a categorization for government rules that won’t affect the US economy by more than $100 million – which is less than the $23 billion that the DOT’s own analysis says the new rule will cost Americans.
Both we at Electrek and the Sierra Club had a meeting with the government to point out this inconsistency, but both of our meetings were scheduled for today and were cancelled late last night. There seems to have been no public comment period regarding this change in regulations.
DOT isn’t done raising your fuel costs, it wants to do more
Duffy’s original DOT memo says he wants to target all similar standards, rather than just the improvements made last year – so in fact, our headline likely underestimates how much higher Duffy wants to make your fuel costs.
A recent analysis by Consumer Reports shows that fuel economy standards are enormously popular with Americans, and that maintaining the current standards could result in lifetime savings of $6,000 per vehicle, compared to current costs, by 2029. And that fuel economy standards implemented since 2001 have already saved $9,000 per vehicle. Now, imagine the net effect of removing all of those standards, which Duffy has directed the DOT to examine doing.
As we’ve already seen to be the case often with Trump’s allies, the DOT memo lied about its intentions. Just like EPA head Lee Zeldin, who said he wants to make the air cleaner by making it dirtier, Duffy, says he wants to make fuel costs lower by making them higher. The memo attempts to argue that your car will be cheaper if it has lower fuel economy, even though it wont, because buying more fuel will mean you spend more on fuel, not less.
Unequivocally, over here in the real world, dirtier air is actually dirtier, and higher fuel costs are actually higher.
The result of this increased fuel usage also inevitably means more reliance on foreign sources of energy. The more oil America uses, the more it will have to import from elsewhere. Other countries looking to exercise power over the US could certainly choose to raise prices as they recognize that the US has just become more reliant on them.
And, as we know from the most basic understanding of economics, adding more demand means prices will go up, not down. Reducing demand for a product in fact forces prices down, and EVs are already displacing oil demand which depresses oil prices.
Meanwhile, Biden’s higher fuel economy standards would mean that automakers need to provide a higher mix of EVs, which inherently get all of their energy to run not just domestically, but regionally as well. Most electricity generation happens regionally or locally based on what resources are available in your area, so when you charge a car, you’re typically supporting jobs at your local power plant, rather than in some overseas oil country.
But these are just attempts to follow-through on the dirty air, inflation causing promises that the republicans made during the campaign. Mr. Trump signaled he intended to raise your fuel costs (and costs of everything else) during the 2024 US Presidential campaign, when he asked oil executives for $1 billion in bribes in return for killing off more efficient vehicles.
However, whiplash changes in regulatory regimes like this are typically seen as bad for business. Above all, businesses desire regulatory certainty so they can plan products into the future, and there are few businesses with longer planning timelines than automakers.
This is why automakers want the EPA to retain Biden’s emissions rules, because they’re already planning new models for the EV transition. They went through this once before, in the chaos of 2017-2021, where they originally asked for rollbacks but then realized their mistake, and now still complain about the broken regulatory regime caused by the last time a former reality TV host squatted in the White House.
Further, if American manufacturing turns away from the EV transition, or continues to make tepid movement towards it, this will only hand more of a manufacturing lead to China, meaning more decline of American manufacturing (compared to the huge manufacturing boom seen under President Biden).
But all of these harms will happen to real people. This isn’t reality television, where the intent is to make up drama for views. This is actual harm that’s actually going to be done to Americans, who are having a rough time as the global economy continues to grapple with the long-term disruptions resulting from a pandemic that was exacerbated by the same reality TV host, and of course the ever-present worsening climate change.
And so, Mr. Trump is now trying to follow through on his campaign promises – which, in so many ways, will only make your life costlier, more unhealthy, less stable, and less secure from foreign influence. This is what 49% of America voted for.
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss Tesla being in the crosshairs of the Musk/Trump divorce, EV sales in Europe, a new Hyundai electric minivan, and more.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET:
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Kia believes hatchbacks will make a comeback, starting with the EV4 later this year. The EV4 is Kia’s first electric hatch, and it’s expected to see big demand.
Kia aims to bring back hatchbacks with the new EV4
During its EV Day event earlier this year, Kia showcased four EV4 models, two sedans and two hatchbacks, all of which are fully electric.
The EV4 is part of Kia’s new entry-level EV lineup, which includes other models, including the EV3, EV5, and the upcoming EV2.
Following the launch of the EV4 sedan in Korea in March, Kia is preparing to introduce the hatchback version in Europe. The EV4 will kick off a series of new hatchbacks, which Kia believes could be its secret weapon as an electric alternative to the Volkswagen Golf and other popular models.
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Kia’s executive vice president, Ted Lee, believes there is still “big volume” for hatchbacks in Europe that’s up for grabs. During a recent interview with Autocar, Lee confirmed Kia would launch a new series of hatchbacks.
Kia EV4 hatchback (Source: Kia)
The EV4 is set to kick things off later this year. Unlike the sedan, Kia will build the EV4 hatch in Europe. It will be Kia’s first European-built EV at its plant in Slovakia. The sedan variant will be imported from South Korea.
Kia will launch the EV4 hatch in the UK in October. After that, the new K4 will join the series, which will also arrive in hatchback form. The K4, both hatch and sedan variants, will be imported from Kia’s plant in Mexico.
Kia EV4 hatchback GT-Line (Source: Kia)
According to Lee, Kia is in a “strong position in Europe,” especially in the UK. The Korean automaker is currently the third-best-selling brand in the UK, and it is only 300 units away from surpassing BMW.
Although he admitted new Chinese models are creating a “difficult market,” the company is doubling down on the region.
Kia EV4 hatchback (Source: Kia UK)
Kia will not get caught up in a price war, Lee explained. Instead, the company aims to continue driving the “sustainable growth” it has created over the past few years. Kia’s sales in Europe have increased by 30% since 2020.
Kia EV4 hatchback interior (Source: Kia)
After launching the EV3, Kia said the electric SUV “started with a bang” in January, becoming the UK’s most popular retail electric vehicle. Kia’s compact EV was the best-selling retail EV in the UK during the first quarter and the fourth-best-selling overall.
According to SMNT’s latest registration data, Kia brand sales are up 4% this year, with nearly 52,000 vehicles sold through May. It currently holds a 6.11% market share, up from 6.05% last year.
Kia EV3 Air in Frost Blue (Source: Kia UK)
The EV3 starts at £33,005 ($42,500) in the UK with two battery pack options: 58.3 kWh or 81.48 kWh. The standard battery provides a WLTP range of up to 30 km (270 miles), while the extended range option offers a driving range of 599 km (375 miles).
With the EV3 off to a strong start, the EV4 joining it, and its first electric van, the PV5, rolling out, Kia is laying the groundwork for the “sustainable growth” it’s seeking.
Yesterday, Electrek reported that the EV4 was off to a slow start in Korea with just 831 models sold. However, the disappointing first sales month was due to “limited inventory.”
Ahead of its official launch, we got a sneak peek of the EV4 hatchback after it was spotted driving in Korea (You can watch the video here).
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