The language used by Elon Musk about Tesla’s self-driving effort is changing, and it is muddying the timeline for the automaker to deliver on its promise.
Musk use to make statements that made him sound supremely confident that Tesla could soon deliver a self-driving system and virtually all vehicles the automaker produced since 2016 through a software update.
During Tesla’s Autonomy Day in 2019, he made so many comments that promised that Tesla would achieve full self-driving capabilities that we were able to produce a video of three straight minutes of Musk promising Tesla delivering a self-driving system:
As you can see in this video, Musk was talking about “robotaxis” and “not having to touch the steering wheel” or even not needing to “look out the window” at the time.
He was also talking about Tesla delivering those capabilities in 2020.
Two years later, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving Capability, or FSD, is still in beta – it requires the driver to be attentive at all times, and system disengagements are quite frequent.
Tesla is not only behind Musk’s schedule to deliver on the system, but now Musk has been changing the goalpost lately.
The CEO has already stopped talking about the biggest promises, like “1 million robotaxis by the end of the year.” Instead, he has been talking about a wider release of Tesla’s FSD Beta, which again is extremely far from a robot taxi service.
Now during a conference call following the release of Tesla’s Q3 2022 financial results, Musk is again being much more careful about the language he uses around Tesla’s self-driving effort.
He again talked about a wider release of FSD Beta:
This quarter, we expect to go to wide release of Full Self-Driving Beta in North America. So, anyone who has ordered a Full Self-Driving package will have access to the FSD beta program this year, probably about a month from now.
But where things got dicey was when Musk was directly asked by an analyst when will Tesla deliver a level 4 or level 5 self-driving system. Those are the levels where drivers don’t have to pay attention.
Musk’s answer was vague, to say the least, and the comment was much weaker than his previous promises:
Well, there’s this debate of what’s the interventions per mile and maybe safety interventions per mile. Like we’re not saying that that’s quite ready to have no one behind the wheel. It’s just that you will almost never have to touch the control, vehicle controllers. So, like when I came to Giga Texas from a friend’s house today, I never touched any of the controls already here.
And then there is a longer process called the march of 9s, which is how many 9s reliability do you need before you could really be comfortable saying that the car could drive with no one in it? And there’s some subjectivity as to how many 9s you need. But I think we’ll be pretty close to having enough 9s that you’re going to have no one in the car by the end of this year. And certainly, without a question, that’s in my mind next year.
The CEO then added that Tesla plans to have an FSD update next year that will be used to “show to regulators that the car is safer than the average human.”
Electrek’s Take
Musk is obviously being more careful in his choice of words, but he is still talking about Tesla achieving level 4 or 5 next year.
The most frustrating part is that he obviously doesn’t have much credibility when it comes to this timeline anymore, but he keeps justifying this prediction by saying “you just have to look at the performance of Tesla FSD beta.”
My experience with FSD Beta certainly doesn’t suggest that, but some have had better experiences, especially in California, where there are more owners to train the system.
However, talking to the more unbiased FSD Beta testers, I found it hard to see a clear path to Tesla achieving level 4 or 5 autonomy within the next year.
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The HD arm of Hyundai has just released the first official images of the new, battery-electric HX19e mini excavator – the first ever production electric excavator from the global South Korean manufacturer.
The HX19e will be the first all-electric asset to enter series production at Hyundai Construction Equipment, with manufacturing set to begin this April.
The new HX19e will be offered with either a 32 kWh or 40 kWh li-ion battery pack – which, according to Hyundai, is nearly double the capacity offered by its nearest competitor (pretty sure that’s not correct –Ed.). The 40kWh battery allows for up to 6 hours and 40 minutes of continuous operation between charges, with a break time top-up on delivering full shift usability.
Those batteries send power to a 13 kW (17.5 hp) electric motor that drives an open-center hydraulic system. Hyundai claims the system delivers job site performance that is at least equal to, if not better than, that of its diesel-powered HX19A mini excavator.
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To that end, the Hyundai XH19e offers the same 16 kN bucket breakout force and a slightly higher 9.4 kN (just over 2100 lb-ft) dipper arm breakout force. The maximum digging depth is 7.6 feet, and the maximum digging reach is 12.9 feet. Hyundai will offer the new electric excavator with just four selectable options:
enclosed cab vs. open canopy
32 or 40 kWh battery capacity
All HX19es will ship with a high standard specification that includes safety valves on the main boom, dipper arm, and dozer blade hydraulic cylinders, as well as two-way auxiliary hydraulic piping allows the machine to be used with a range of commercially available implements. The hydraulics needed to operate a quick coupler, LED booms lights, rotating beacons, an MP3 radio with USB connectivity, and an operator’s seat with mechanical suspension are also standard.
HX19e electric mini excavator; via Hyundai Construction Equipment.
The ability to operate indoors, underground, or in environments like zoos and hospitals were keeping noise levels down is of critical importance to the success of an operation makes electric equipment assets like these coming from Hyundai a must-have for fleet operators and construction crews that hope to remain competitive in the face of ever-increasing noise regulations. The fact that these are cleaner, safer, and cheaper to operate is just icing on that cake.
With the Trump Administration fully in power and Federal electric vehicle incentives apparently on the chopping block, many fleet buyers are second-guessing the push to electrify their fleets. To help ease their minds, Harbinger is launching the IRA Risk-Free Guarantee, promising to cover the cost of anticipated IRA credits if the rebate goes away.
In the case of a Harbinger S524 Class 5 chassis with a 140 kWh battery capacity with an MSRP of $103,200, the company will offer an IRA Risk-Free Guarantee credit of $12,900 at the time of purchase, bringing initial cost down to $90,300. This matches the typical selling price of an equivalent Freightliner MT-45 diesel medium-duty chassis.
“We created (the IRA Risk-Free Guarantee) program to eliminate the financial uncertainty for customers who are interested in EV adoption, but are concerned about the future of the IRA tax credit,” said John Harris, Co-founder and CEO of Harbinger. “For electric vehicles to go mainstream, they must be cost-competitive with diesel vehicles. While the IRA tax credit helps bridge that gap, we remain committed to price parity with diesel, even if the credit disappears. Our vertically integrated approach enables us to keep costs low, shields us from tariff volatility, and ensures long-term price stability for our customers.”
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Harbinger recently revealed a book of business consisting of 4,690 binding orders. Those orders are valued at approximately $500 million, and fueled a $100 million Series B raise.
Electrek’s Take
Harbinger truck charging; via Harbinger.
One of the most frequent criticisms of electric vehicle incentives is that they encourage manufacturers and dealers to artificially inflate the price of their vehicles. In their heads, I imagine the scenario goes something like this:
you looked at a used Nissan LEAF on a dealer’s lot priced at $14,995
a new bill passes and the state issues a $2500 used EV rebate
you decide to go back to the dealer and buy the car
once you arrive, you find that the price is now $16,995
While it’s commendable that Harbinger is taking action and sacrificing some of its profits to keep the business growing and the overall cause of fleet electrification moving forward, one has to wonder how they can “suddenly” afford to offer these massive discounts in lieu of government incentives – and how many other EV brands could probably afford to do the same.
Whoever is left at Nikola after the fledgling truck-maker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last month is probably having a worse week than you – the company issued a recall with the NHTSA for 95 of its hydrogen fuel cell-powered semi trucks.
That complaint seems to have led to the posthumous recall of 95 (out of about 200) Nikola-built electric semi trucks.
The latest HFCEV recall is on top of the 2023 battery recall that impacted nearly all of Nikola’s deployed BEV fleet. Clean Trucking is citing a January 31, 2025 report from the NHTSA revealing that, as of the end of 2024, Nikola had yet to complete repairs for 98 of its affected BEVs. The ultimate fate of those vehicles remains unclear.
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Electrek’s Take
Image via Coyote Container.
I’ve received a few messages complaining that I “haven’t covered” the Nikola bankruptcy – which is bananas, since I reported that it was coming five weeks before it happened and there was no “new” information presented in the interim (he said, defensively).
Still, it’s worth looking back on Nikola’s headlong dive into the empty swimming pool of hydrogen, and remind ourselves that even its most enthusiastic early adopters were suffering.
“The truck costs five to ten times that of a standard Class 8 drayage [truck],” explained William Hall, Managing Member and Founder of Coyote Container. “On top of that, you pay five to ten times the Federal Excise Tax (FET) and local sales tax, [which comes to] roughly 22%. If you add the 10% reserve not covered by any voucher program, you are at 32%. Thirty-two percent of $500,000 is $160,000 for the trucker to somehow pay [out of pocket].”
After several failures that left his Nikola trucks stranded on the side of the road, the first such incident happening with just 900 miles on the truck’s odometer, a NHTSA complaint was filed. It’s not clear if it was Hall’s complaint, but the complaint seems to address his concerns, below.