It could be all over on Monday or the Conservatives may be about to mesmerise the nation with another round of vicious infighting.
The Conservative Party rules can’t be changed. They are that Conservative MPs draw up a shortlist of two candidates from their number.
The 180,000 paid-up and unelected party members then choose between them. Less than half of those eligible to vote actually voted for Liz Truss last time but they still overruled the MPs’ preference and saddled the nation with a prime minister who lasted less than 50 days.
Sir Graham Brady and the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers have done what they can to try to stop it happening again by changing the way MPs draw up the shortlist. It is possible that the MPs will present the membership with a fait accompli early next week.
After the bumpy ride for the country and their party under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, senior Tory backbenchers have done what they can to ensure an orderly transition to an orthodox candidate: most likely Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt, who were the runners-up in the last contest which, amazingly, elected Ms Truss less than two months ago.
As things stand, however, there is a chance that these best laid plans could go awry, resulting in Britain ending up with another “disrupter” prime minister drawn from an unrepresentative band of populist libertarians.
How will Tories pick the new PM?
Image: Rishi Sunak lost to Liz Truss in the last Tory leadership contest
The ’22 have set the threshold for nominations high. To enter the contest, a candidate will need to gather written backing from 100 fellow Tory MPs over this weekend. That is five times higher than the 20 required last time and has the desired effect of limiting the field to a maximum of three candidates since there are only 357 Conservatives in the Commons.
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Nominations will close at 2pm on Monday. MPs will then vote, with the results declared at 6pm. Theoretically, that may not be necessary. It is possible that only one candidate – Rishi Sunak, the runaway favourite – will get enough nominations. He would then win by a walkover, similiar to the way Gordon Brown took over the premiership from Tony Blair.
Nominating someone is more potent than just voting for them. Remember the charity nominations Margaret Beckett and other “morons”, her words not mine, gave Jeremy Corbyn so he could run. This time MPs might decide that Mr Sunak is going to win anyway, so for a quiet life and possibly currying favour with the new boss they could give him a key to No 10.
But in the final round this summer, Mr Sunak led with 137 votes, to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Penny Mordaunt. Ms Mordaunt wants to run again and is scrabbling for her base to nominate her. In polls this summer she was more popular with Tory voters than Mr Sunak. She would prefer a straight fight with Mr Sunak, whether that comes about because only she and he are nominated or because they beat a possible third candidate in an initial vote.
If there are two candidates left for the membership to choose from, there will be an online ballot of the membership next week, with the result declared on Friday. Before that, the ’22 have already said that there will be “an indicative vote” between them first by MPs. The purpose of this is to send a powerful and unambiguous message to the membership about whom MPs want as leader. In choosing Ms Truss last time they went against the MPs’ first preference of Sunak.
If Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt are the final two, they could still take the decision out of the membership’s hands by agreeing that one who has least backing from MPs withdraw in favour of the one with most, allowing him or her to become prime minister. They would also both commit in advance to serve in the same cabinet and to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor .
Such a smooth transition would be derailed if there is a third candidate with 100 nominations.
All eyes are on Boris Johnson, who is said, like Donald Trump, to want a comeback. If, and it is a big if, he gets on to the starting grid, there could be a stampede of MPs who might decide he looks like a vote winner and put him into the second round against either Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak.
His chances of victory and re-election by the membership would be very high. He is popular and he is the only candidate who can claim a personal mandate, having led the party to victory in the 2019 general election.
But, but, but.
Tory MPs and cabinet ministers turfed out Mr Johnson this summer for serial dishonesty and sending others out to lie on his behalf. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and a few diehards may be calling on him to return but he has never been loved by the rank and file of the parliamentary party, who control the nominations. Nor does he fit snuggly with the libertarian, UKIP-style entryists of the European Research Group, who are now fighting a rear-guard action to preserve their influence in the party.
There are obvious efforts by Johnson supporters in parliament and the media to talk him up this weekend. But his shooting star support from some MPs could easily plateau short of 100 nominations. If so, having drawn attention to himself yet again, Mr Johnson would most likely return to his less demanding, more lucrative exertions on the US lecture circuit.
Could an unlikely outsider emerge?
If it is not Mr Johnson, someone else could emerge as the third challenger.
Suella Braverman fancies her chances and her sacking as Ms Truss’s home secretary positions her to rally the right. Kemi Badenoch also has high ambitions.
Fortunately for Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out of the race. It is unlikely anyone else would be able to muster 100 nominating signatures.
Shell-shocked Tory MPs do not want to take the risk of taking a punt on another incoherent or incompetent leader. They want a well-known figure with a proven track record to steady the ship.
In the ultimate reckoning, this is likely to count against Ms Mordaunt. At 49, she is older than Mr Sunak, 42, and has been in parliament five years longer, since 2010. But she has served barely two years as a cabinet minister.
Mr Sunak by contrast has three years in cabinet under his belt, two of them as the chancellor who piloted the economy through COVID.
MPs have the future of the nation in their hands. One option would be to open the door to the return of the discredited individual they kicked out a few months ago. Or they could shut him out for good and opt for a technocrat.
The streets of Britain have turned into “theatres of intimidation”, Kemi Badenoch has warned in a speech to mark the opening of the Conservative Party Conference in Manchester.
Speaking just days after a terror attack at a synagogue in the city left two people dead, the Tory leader claimed extremism “has gone unchecked” in the UK.
She said this had manifested in Pro-Palestine protests which are “in fact carnivals of hatred directed at the Jewish homeland”.
She cited the use of “asinine slogans” such as ‘Globalise the Intifada’, saying this “means nothing at all, if it doesn’t mean targeting Jewish people for violence”.
Ms Badenoch added: “So the message from this conference, from this party, from every decent and right-thinking person in this country must be that we will not stand for it any more. We cannot import and tolerate values hostile to our own.
“We must now draw a line and say that in Britain you can think what you like, and within the bounds of the law you can say what you like, but you have no right to turn our streets into the theatres of intimidation and we will not let you do so any more.“
Nearly 500 people were arrested over protests supporting the proscribed group Palestine Action in central London on Saturday.
Demonstrators defied calls from political leaders, including Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, to reconsider the event out of respect for the grief of the British Jewish community.
The chief of the Metropolitan Police, Sir Mark Rowley, also called for the event to be postponed, saying he was worried resources would be stretched and the ability of the force to protect communities would be compromised.
Image: Supporters at this year’s Tory party conference greet their leader Kemi Badenoch. Pic: PA
She said that shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Alex Burghart will lead a review into a union-wide implementation of leaving the ECHR, so voters have “a clear, thorough and robust plan, not the vague mush that we see day in, day out from Labour, nor the vacuous posturing that we see day in, day out from Reform”.
The plan has been condemned by Former Conservative justice secretary and Lord Chancellor Robert Buckland, who lost his seat at the 2024 election.
“I have seen first-hand how deeply this issue touches our constitution, our Union, and our international standing. It would be a profound mistake to go down this path,” he wrote in an article for Conservative Home.
The comments reflect how the issue has long divided the party, with “one nation” moderates like Mr Buckland opposed to the idea of leaving the ECHR, and others seeing it as necessary to get a grip on illegal migration and tackle Reform UK.
In a sign she won’t shy away from that fight, Ms Badenoch told GB News earlier that every Conservative candidate must sign up to her plan to leave the ECHR, or they would be barred from standing at the next election.
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The Tories are languishing in the polls behind Reform and Labour after suffering their worst-ever defeat at the election last year.
Ms Badenoch, who was elected to lead the party last November, ended her speech acknowledging there was a “mountain to climb” but insisting she was up for the fight.
“Britain needs deep change. But I reject the politics that everything must go, that everything must be torn down, that everything is broken,” she said.
“If we leave it to Labour or Reform, Britain will be divided. Only the Conservatives can bring this country back together.
“So, I say to you all as we start our conference, yes, we have a mountain to climb, but we have a song in our hearts, and we are up for the fight.”
It follows the arrests of nearly 500 peopleduring demonstrations in support of the proscribed group Palestine Action in central London on Saturday.
Protesters defied calls to rethink the event in the wake of the Manchester synagogue terror attack on Thursday, in which two Jewish worshippers were killed.
The new powers will allow police forces to consider the “cumulative impact” of protests, assessing previous activity, when deciding to impose limits on protesters.
The limits that could be imposed include moving demonstrators to a different place or “restricting the time that those protests can occur”, Ms Mahmood said.
She added: “It’s been clear to me in conversations in the last couple of days that there is a gap in the law and there is an inconsistency of practice.
“So I’ll be taking measures immediately to put that right and I will be reviewing our wider protest legislation as well, to make sure the arrangements we have can meet the scale of the challenge that we face.”
Image: A demonstration supporting Palestine Action on Saturday in central London. Pic: Reuters
Image: Police officers detain a protester during the mass protest. Pic: Reuters
The changes will be made through amendments to the Public Order Act, and anyone who breaches the new conditions will risk arrest and prosecution.
‘More flexibility to prevent disruptive protests’
The home secretary has written to chief constables in England and Wales to explain the new powers.
She wrote: “The government will bring forward legislation to increase the powers available to you to tackle the repeated disruptive protests we have seen and continue to provide the reassurance to communities that they need.
“Through upcoming legislation, we will amend sections 12 and 14 of the Public Order Act 1986 to allow senior officers to consider the cumulative impact of protests on local communities when they are imposing conditions on public processions and assemblies.
“This will allow you more flexibility to prevent disruptive protests from attending the same location and instruct organisers to move to a different site.”
The Greens and the Lib Dems said it was an attack on the right to protest.
Green Party leader Zack Polanski told Sky News: “Giving police sweeping powers to shut down protests because of their ‘cumulative impact’ is a cynical assault on the right to dissent. The whole point of protest is persistence; that’s how change happens. Do you think the suffragettes protested once and then gave up?”
Lib Dem home affairs spokesman Max Wilkinson said this will “do nothing” to tackle antisemitism “while undermining the fundamental right to peaceful protest”.
Earlier, Ms Mahmood said the right to protest was a “fundamental freedom” but this must be balanced “with the freedom of their neighbours to live their lives without fear”.
In a statement she said: “Large, repeated protests can leave sections of our country, particularly religious communities, feeling unsafe, intimidated and scared to leave their homes.
“This has been particularly evident in relation to the considerable fear within the Jewish community, which has been expressed to me on many occasions in these recent difficult days.
“These changes mark an important step in ensuring we protect the right to protest while ensuring all feel safe in this country.”
Tories ‘will support’ measures
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said her party will “of course support” the new measures but asked why it took “so long” for them to be introduced.
Speaking to the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, she claimed that what happened in Manchester was foreseeable and not enough has been done to address fears over safety in the Jewish community.
Ms Mahmood addressed the Jewish communities’ concerns after being shown a clip of deputy prime minister David Lammy being heckled at a vigil on Friday.
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Home secretary reacts to moment Lammy was heckled
She told Sky News’ Trevor Phillips the government “of course” hears their strength of feeling and is “committed to dealing with antisemitism in all of its forms”, pointing to the “strengthening” of police powers announced today.
Asked if the reaction to Mr Lammy reflected anger at the government’s decision to recognise a Palestine state, she said it was important not to “elide” Thursday’s attack with the situation in the Middle East.
“People are entitled to their views and of course we were there to hear those views. What I would say is that the attack that took place, the person that’s responsible for that attack is the attacker himself,” she said.
“And, of course, four other people are in custody and the police investigation does need to take its course. It’s important that we don’t elide that into the wider questions of what’s going on in the Middle East.”
A man who helped barricade the Manchester synagogue has described how the terror attack unfolded.
Alan Levy said he was in the car park in the grounds of Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation Synagogue in Crumpsall when the incident started and he saw the attacker, who he called a “jihadist monster”.
“I was there when he crashed his car into the synagogue gates and ran down the security guard that was there and attacked a volunteer security guard and tried to gain access into the synagogue,” Mr Levy said in an interview with Sky News’ people and politics correspondent Nick Martin.
It was then that Mr Levy ran into the synagogue and sought to lock it down.
He and other congregants helped barricade the doors to stop the attacker from getting inside, as “he was shoulder-charging the doors trying to get in”.
“He was throwing plant pots at the glass. He was using a knife to try and get in. These brave men basically saved the community from further harm,” Mr Levy said.
“All I was thinking was ‘we’ve got to keep these doors closed’.
“He was trying each door in turn. When we realised which door he was going to, we moved doors so there was more pressure on the doors to keep them closed.”
Image: Alan Levy, helped barricade the synagogue
Two people were killed in the attack on Thursday, including one who died from a police bulletfired as officers shot dead the perpetrator, Jihad al Shamie.
The victims were named as Adrian Daulby, 53, a member of the congregation, and Melvin Cravitz, 66, a worshipper at the synagogue.
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Who was the Manchester synagogue attacker?
Mr Levy’s son, Marc, described the moment he first received news of the attack and said “it’s impossible to articulate the worry and concern” as he didn’t know whether his family was safe or not.
“I first knew that there was an incident when my phone started lighting up repeatedly and I realised that there was an attack on my synagogue,” he said.
“It’s a place where all my childhood memories of worshipping… pretty much going there throughout my whole life.
“I knew at that time that my father would have been on security at that time, as he is every morning, given that him and his friends are some of the first people who arrive.”
He said it was only when he saw his father on Sky News’ live feed that he realised he wasn’t one of the victims.
Six people were arrested over the attack but two have been released without charge.
Police revealed the attacker had been on bail over a suspected rape, but wasn’t on the radar of counter-terror police.
The Independent Office for Police Conduct (IOPC) is investigating the shooting – this is standard practice when a member of the public is killed – and will examine “whether police may have caused or contributed to the death” of Mr Daulby.
Al Shamie, 35, was named as the attacker on Thursday and is believed to be of Syrian descent.
He is understood to have been granted British citizenship when he was around 16, having entered the UK as a young child.
Police shot him dead seven minutes after the first emergency call as they feared he was wearing an explosive device – later identified as a fake.