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It could be all over on Monday or the Conservatives may be about to mesmerise the nation with another round of vicious infighting.

The Conservative Party rules can’t be changed. They are that Conservative MPs draw up a shortlist of two candidates from their number.

The 180,000 paid-up and unelected party members then choose between them. Less than half of those eligible to vote actually voted for Liz Truss last time but they still overruled the MPs’ preference and saddled the nation with a prime minister who lasted less than 50 days.

Three names emerge in Tory leadership contest – politics latest

Sir Graham Brady and the executive of the 1922 Committee of backbenchers have done what they can to try to stop it happening again by changing the way MPs draw up the shortlist. It is possible that the MPs will present the membership with a fait accompli early next week.

After the bumpy ride for the country and their party under Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, senior Tory backbenchers have done what they can to ensure an orderly transition to an orthodox candidate: most likely Rishi Sunak or Penny Mordaunt, who were the runners-up in the last contest which, amazingly, elected Ms Truss less than two months ago.

As things stand, however, there is a chance that these best laid plans could go awry, resulting in Britain ending up with another “disrupter” prime minister drawn from an unrepresentative band of populist libertarians.

How will Tories pick the new PM?

Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak
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Rishi Sunak lost to Liz Truss in the last Tory leadership contest

The ’22 have set the threshold for nominations high. To enter the contest, a candidate will need to gather written backing from 100 fellow Tory MPs over this weekend. That is five times higher than the 20 required last time and has the desired effect of limiting the field to a maximum of three candidates since there are only 357 Conservatives in the Commons.

Nominations will close at 2pm on Monday. MPs will then vote, with the results declared at 6pm. Theoretically, that may not be necessary. It is possible that only one candidate – Rishi Sunak, the runaway favourite – will get enough nominations. He would then win by a walkover, similiar to the way Gordon Brown took over the premiership from Tony Blair.

How the Tory Party changes its leader

Nominating someone is more potent than just voting for them. Remember the charity nominations Margaret Beckett and other “morons”, her words not mine, gave Jeremy Corbyn so he could run. This time MPs might decide that Mr Sunak is going to win anyway, so for a quiet life and possibly currying favour with the new boss they could give him a key to No 10.

But in the final round this summer, Mr Sunak led with 137 votes, to 113 for Ms Truss and 105 for Penny Mordaunt. Ms Mordaunt wants to run again and is scrabbling for her base to nominate her. In polls this summer she was more popular with Tory voters than Mr Sunak. She would prefer a straight fight with Mr Sunak, whether that comes about because only she and he are nominated or because they beat a possible third candidate in an initial vote.

The expected timeline of events in electing a new PM

If there are two candidates left for the membership to choose from, there will be an online ballot of the membership next week, with the result declared on Friday. Before that, the ’22 have already said that there will be “an indicative vote” between them first by MPs. The purpose of this is to send a powerful and unambiguous message to the membership about whom MPs want as leader. In choosing Ms Truss last time they went against the MPs’ first preference of Sunak.

If Mr Sunak and Ms Mordaunt are the final two, they could still take the decision out of the membership’s hands by agreeing that one who has least backing from MPs withdraw in favour of the one with most, allowing him or her to become prime minister. They would also both commit in advance to serve in the same cabinet and to keep Jeremy Hunt as chancellor .

Read more:
Resignations, reversals and rebellion – the 44 days of Liz Truss’s premiership
It’s hard to see how new PM will stop the rot – Beth Rigby analysis

Will Johnson derail the smooth transition?

Boris Johnson outside Number 10 on 6 September, the day he handed over power to Liz Truss Pic: AP

Such a smooth transition would be derailed if there is a third candidate with 100 nominations.

All eyes are on Boris Johnson, who is said, like Donald Trump, to want a comeback. If, and it is a big if, he gets on to the starting grid, there could be a stampede of MPs who might decide he looks like a vote winner and put him into the second round against either Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak.

His chances of victory and re-election by the membership would be very high. He is popular and he is the only candidate who can claim a personal mandate, having led the party to victory in the 2019 general election.

But, but, but.

Tory MPs and cabinet ministers turfed out Mr Johnson this summer for serial dishonesty and sending others out to lie on his behalf. Jacob Rees-Mogg, Nadine Dorries and a few diehards may be calling on him to return but he has never been loved by the rank and file of the parliamentary party, who control the nominations. Nor does he fit snuggly with the libertarian, UKIP-style entryists of the European Research Group, who are now fighting a rear-guard action to preserve their influence in the party.

There are obvious efforts by Johnson supporters in parliament and the media to talk him up this weekend. But his shooting star support from some MPs could easily plateau short of 100 nominations. If so, having drawn attention to himself yet again, Mr Johnson would most likely return to his less demanding, more lucrative exertions on the US lecture circuit.

Could an unlikely outsider emerge?

Attorney General Suella Braverman during a regional cabinet meeting at Middleport Pottery in Stoke on Trent. Picture date: Thursday May 12, 2022.

If it is not Mr Johnson, someone else could emerge as the third challenger.

Suella Braverman fancies her chances and her sacking as Ms Truss’s home secretary positions her to rally the right. Kemi Badenoch also has high ambitions.

Fortunately for Ms Mordaunt or Mr Sunak, Jeremy Hunt and Ben Wallace have both ruled themselves out of the race. It is unlikely anyone else would be able to muster 100 nominating signatures.

Shell-shocked Tory MPs do not want to take the risk of taking a punt on another incoherent or incompetent leader. They want a well-known figure with a proven track record to steady the ship.

In the ultimate reckoning, this is likely to count against Ms Mordaunt. At 49, she is older than Mr Sunak, 42, and has been in parliament five years longer, since 2010. But she has served barely two years as a cabinet minister.

Mr Sunak by contrast has three years in cabinet under his belt, two of them as the chancellor who piloted the economy through COVID.

MPs have the future of the nation in their hands. One option would be to open the door to the return of the discredited individual they kicked out a few months ago. Or they could shut him out for good and opt for a technocrat.

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Stillness and shock after South Korea’s plane tragedy – but families’ frustration is boiling over

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Stillness and shock after South Korea's plane tragedy - but families' frustration is boiling over

At the crash site at Muan Airport, you get a really strong sense of just how sudden and catastrophic it all was.

There is an eerie quiet as the army sifts through the wreckage, picking up tiny bits of debris and placing them in small plastic bags.

Tens of metres from the plane you can see countless passenger seats ripped apart and broken bits of aircraft equipment everywhere.

Only the tail of the plane is visible – most of it is destroyed. Engulfed by flames, it’s clear passengers had next to no chance of surviving this horrific disaster.

Live updates: South Korea plane crash

South Korean soldiers work near the wreckage.
Pic: AP
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South Korean soldiers work near the wreckage. Pic: AP

The wreckage of the Jeju Air aircraft. Pic: Reuters/Kim Hong-Ji
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The wreckage of the Jeju Air aircraft. Pic: Reuters

In the airport, a morgue has been established, and families are gathered – all in grief, but some still waiting for their loved ones to be officially identified.

They are sat in mournful silence – the arrivals board now carrying the names of those on board.

Sheltered tents have been erected to give families privacy. There’s a stillness and shock that hangs in the air.

Read more:
Pilot reported bird strike before crash
Tough questions for airline bosses

Temporary shelters set up at the airport for mourners waiting for answers.
Pic: AP/Ahn Young-joon
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Temporary shelters set up at the airport for mourners. Pic: AP

Muan International Airport in Muan, South Korea. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
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Mourners at the airport. Pic: AP

Many of those on board were returning from a Christmas holiday to Thailand. Now the loved ones they’ve left behind are gathering at a memorial altar – trying to process the aftermath of South Korea’s worst-ever aviation disaster.

There is a cruel choreography to the aftermath of the national tragedy playing out on an acute and horrifying level for the families of the dead.

Relatives look exhausted. Some have slept on the terminal floor, desperately waiting for official confirmation.

Then, suddenly a man comes to the microphone and starts to read out a list of eight individuals and asks their families to go to gate one.

A woman prays at a memorial altar for the victims of the Jeju Air crash. REUTERS/Kim Hong-ji
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A woman prays at a memorial altar for the victims. Pic: Reuters

Buddhists monks pray for the victims. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon)
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Buddhists monks pray for the victims. Pic: AP

Relatives quickly huddle together and rush outside to a bus that’s waiting to take them to the mortuary.

It is a gruesome process ahead for them. Many of the bodies are in a very poor condition. They can only be identified through DNA testing and fingerprints.

As they wait to board the bus, a group of women starts to weep. It is an outpouring of grief in a society that prioritises privacy. Most are simply too upset to talk.

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What we know about the plane crash – and what went wrong

But at a briefing, frustration is boiling over. Some relatives are shouting at officials, angry they’ve still not been able to see their loved ones’ bodies.

The official tells them they are sorting through more than 600 body parts and are trying hard to avoid any mistakes. It is an uncomfortable truth that’s hard for many to hear.

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Jimmy Carter dies: President Biden leads tributes to ‘a man for all time’

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Jimmy Carter dies: President Biden leads tributes to 'a man for all time'

US President Joe Biden says the world has lost a “remarkable leader” and a “man for all time” after the death of Jimmy Carter.

Mr Carter, who was US president between 1977 and 1981, died at his home in Georgia while surrounded by his family on Sunday afternoon.

The Nobel Peace Prize winner was aged 100.

Read more: ‘Jimmy who?’ The US president 1970s America really needed

FILE - Sen. Joe Biden and former President Jimmy Carter are seen at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Aug. 26, 2008. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya, File)
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File pic: AP

Making a televised address from his family holiday in the US Virgin Islands, Mr Biden said his predecessor represented “the most fundamental human values we can never let slip away”.

“Jimmy Carter stands as a model for it means to live a life of meaning and purpose,” he said.

“I see a man not only not our times, but for all time. We could all do well to be a little more like Jimmy Carter.”

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Asked if there were any lessons president-elect Donald Trump could learn from Mr Carter, Mr Biden answered: “Decency, decency, decency”.

It was revealed in February last year that Mr Carter was receiving hospice care and would “spend his remaining time at home with his family”.

He had decided against “additional medical intervention” following a series of brief hospital stays.

Jimmy Carter as Georgia's 76th governor.
Pic: Jimmy Carter Library
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Jimmy Carter as Georgia’s 76th governor.
Pic: Jimmy Carter Library

The Carter Center says there will be opportunities for the public to pay their respects in Atlanta, Georgia, and Washington DC before a private interment in his hometown Plains, while final arrangements for his state funeral are still being made.

Mr Biden says his team is “working to see to it that he is remembered appropriately.”

Among those who have paid tribute to Mr Carter are:

US president-elect Donald Trump

The incoming US president Donald Trump, who takes office on 20 January, said: “The challenges Jimmy faced as President came at a pivotal time for our country, and he did everything in his power to improve the lives of all Americans.

“For that, we all owe him a debt of gratitude.”

Former US president Barack Obama

Fellow Democrat Barack Obama honoured Mr Carter’s achievements in the White House, including “the Camp David Accords he brokered that reshaped the Middle East… nominating a pioneering women’s rights activist and lawyer named Ruth Bader Ginsburg to the federal bench… [and] becoming one of the first leaders in the world to recognise the problem of climate change”.

He also paid tribute to the “longest, and most impactful, post-presidency in American history”, during which he monitored more than 100 national elections, helped virtually eliminate Guinea worm disease, and built or repaired thousands of homes around the world with his wife Rosalynn as part of Habitat for Humanity.

The 50th Anniversary of the March on Washington ** STORY AVAILABLE, CONTACT SUPPLIER** Featuring: Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter Where: Washington, District of Columbia, United States When: 28 Aug 2013 Credit: Michael Reynolds/Pool/startraksphoto.com  (Cover Images via AP Images)
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The Obamas have bid farewell to Jimmy Carter (second from left). Pic: AP

Former US president George W Bush

Mr Bush said his predecessor “dignified the office”.

“And his efforts to leave behind a better world didn’t end with the presidency. His work with Habitat for Humanity and the Carter Center set an example of service that will inspire Americans for generations.”

FILE ... From left, former President George H.W. Bush, President-elect Barack Obama, President George W. Bush, former President Bill Clinton and former President Jimmy Carter, meet in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2009. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)
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Carter gathered with fellow former presidents including George W Bush in 2009. Pic: AP

Bill and Hillary Clinton

Former president Bill Clinton, who worked with Jimmy Carter after he left the White House, and secretary Hillary Clinton said he “lived to serve others – until the very end”.

“From his commitment to civil rights as a state senator and governor of Georgia; to his efforts as president to… secure peace between Egypt and Israel at Camp David; to his post-presidential efforts at the Carter Center supporting honest elections, advancing peace, combating disease, and promoting democracy… he worked tirelessly for a better, fairer world,” they said in a statement.

Former US vice president Al Gore

Mr Gore praised Jimmy Carter for living “a life full of purpose, commitment and kindness” and for being a “lifelong role model for the entire environmental movement”.

UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer

In his tribute, Sir Keir said Mr Carter “redefined the post-presidency with a remarkable commitment to social justice and human rights at home and abroad”.

The King

The UK’s monarch said he learned of President Carter’s death with “great sadness”, adding that he was “a committed public servant, and devoted his life to promoting peace and human rights”.

The King added: “His dedication and humility served as an inspiration to many, and I remember with great fondness his visit to the United Kingdom in 1977.

“My thoughts and prayers are with President Carter’s family and the American people at this time.”

Former UK prime minister Gordon Brown

Mr Brown said he was “so sad” to hear of the death of his “good friend”.

The former UK leader said Mr Carter would be “rightly remembered as a statesman of unimpeachable integrity, who was admired around the world for his lifelong charitable work, his unwavering support for human rights and for his wonderful generosity of spirit”.

Former U.S. President Jimmy Carter and former First Lady Rosalynn Carter wear traditional Ghanaian attire, a gift from the chief of Tingoli village in northern Ghana, during a field trip to assess Carter Center disease prevention work in Africa in February 2007. Pic: The Carter Center
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Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter were given traditional Ghanaian attire as a gift from the chief of Tingoli village in northern Ghana, during a field trip to assess Carter Center disease prevention work in Africa. Pic: Carter Centre

French President Emmanuel Macron

“Throughout his life, Jimmy Carter defended the rights of the most vulnerable people and tirelessly led the fight for peace,” the French president wrote on X.

“France sends its heartfelt thoughts to his family and to the American people.”

Husam Zomlot, former Palestinian ambassador to the US

Mr Zomlot, now ambassador to the UK, said Mr Carter would be “remembered by the Palestinian people as the first US president to advocate for the freedom of Palestine and the first to warn about Israeli apartheid”.

He added: “He worked for decades to achieve a just and lasting peace in Palestine and the rest of the region.”

Chip Carter

Mr Carter’s son Chip said: “My father was a hero, not only to me but to everyone who believes in peace, human rights and unselfish love.

“My brothers, sister and I shared him with the rest of the world through these common beliefs.

“The world is our family because of the way he brought people together, and we thank you for honouring his memory by continuing to live these shared beliefs.”

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South Korea: Expert says concrete wall plane crashed into is ‘verging on criminal’

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South Korea: Expert says concrete wall plane crashed into is 'verging on criminal'

Aviation experts have said airport authorities in South Korea should face serious questions over the concrete wall that a plane collided with killing 179 people.

Leading air safety expert David Learmount told Sky News the collision with the wall that supported a guidance system at the end of the runway was the “defining moment” of the disaster.

“Not only is there no justification [for it to be there], I think it’s verging on criminal to have it there,” he said.

The scene of the crash at Muan Airport.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
The scene of the crash at Muan Airport. Pic: Reuters

Live updates: South Korea plane crash

Witnesses reported seeing large numbers of birds around the runway shortly before the crash and the control tower had warned the pilot of the possibility of a bird strike. A minute later the plane sent out a mayday signal.

When the plane landed on its second attempt at 9.03am, its landing gear was not deployed.

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Plane skids down runway before crash

Mr Learmount believes the people on board had a good chance of survival once the pilot had got the plane on to the ground despite travelling at high speed.

“He [the pilot] has brought it down beautifully given the circumstances, they are going very fast but the plane is still intact as it slides along the ground,” he said.

Satellite images show wall holding landing system
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Satellite images show a wall holding landing system

Satellite images show wall holding landing system

As it reached the end of the airfield and struck the wall, the plane was almost instantly destroyed.

“That kind of structure should not be there,” he said.

“That is awful. That is unbelievably awful.”

Muan International Airport opened in 2007 and has become a busy regional hub in the south of the country. It is managed by the state-owned Korea Airports Corporation.

Satellite maps show the concrete structure has stood at the southern end of the runway close to the perimeter fence for many years.

Expert says wall collision was 'defining moment'
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An expert says the wall is ‘verging on criminal’

Read More:
Everything we know about deadly crash
South Korea’s worst aviation disaster

It holds the instrument landing system which helps pilots land at night or when visibility is poor.

At most airports these systems are placed on collapsible structures.

“To have a hard object about 200m or less into the overrun, I’ve never seen anything like this anywhere ever before,” Mr Learmount added.

If the plane had not struck the wall he suggested it would have hit through a perimeter fence, travelled over a road and likely stopped in an adjacent field.

“There was plenty of space for the aircraft to have slowed down, come to a halt,” Mr Learmount said.

“And I think everybody would have been alive… the pilots might have suffered some damage going through the security fence or something like that. But I even suspect they might have survived.”

Another aviation expert Sally Gethin said she shared concerns about the location of the wall but disagreed that everyone would have survived.

Ms Gethin said it “seemed to be maintaining speed, so even if there had been more space at the end of the runway it could have possibly ended up being catastrophic”.

The country’s deputy transport minister Joo Jong-wan said the runway’s 2,800m length was not a contributing factor in the crash – and maintained that walls at the ends were built to industry standards.

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