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Rishi Sunak is not just our first British Asian prime minister, our first Hindu PM.

He is not just the youngest prime minister of the modern era. He is also the youngest since the Napoleonic wars and the first millennial PM.

Just as intriguingly, and possibly even more consequentially, he is Britain’s first hedge fund prime minister too.

Before he was a politician, Mr Sunak worked in finance, both at Goldman Sachs and Chris Hohn’s hedge fund – The Children’s Investment Fund Management. His time in the sector was relatively short, but it nonetheless makes for a CV quite unlike almost every other resident of 10 Downing Street.

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Markets shaped him. And now, at the very point when the rise and fall of certain benchmarks are influencing British politics more than in any era since at least the early 1990s, we have a prime minister who takes those markets unusually seriously.

Markets helped him through the door. For, in the end, what did for Liz Truss was the extraordinary response to her mini-budget, which contributed to a dramatic leap in interest rates on both government debt and mortgages. That in turn triggered a crisis in the gilt markets which underlie Britain’s financial system.

And markets have welcomed him. The news that Boris Johnson was pulling out of the leadership race was followed by a sudden rise in the value of the pound. When trading opened in government bonds this morning, they very quickly rallied. The implied interest rate on these bonds dropped sharply.

And since these markets are the foundations of the rest of the financial system, that had an instant effect on prices elsewhere. After the mini-budget, traders were expecting Bank of England interest rates to rise to well above 6% next year; this morning the expected peak dropped below 5% for the first time since that fiscal event.

At this stage you are doubtless wondering: why on earth does any of this matter? Why are we paying so much attention to the markets? Why (as some might put it) is Britain allowing the whims of the globalist elite – the “Davos consensus” – to shape its policy? Whatever happened to democracy?

And, frankly, you have a point. A democratic country’s policies should be shaped by politicians elected by its people. That’s part of the unwritten social contract that binds us.

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Moment Rishi Sunak announced as next PM

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But the reality – depressing as it might be – is that the ability of those politicians to act is circumscribed by markets. They can, to give you a straightforward example, only borrow to the extent that investors around the world are willing to lend them money.

Markets matter not because they are right or wrong (that’s not how it works) but because that’s where the money is. And Britain, a country with enormous “twin deficits” on its current account and government account, is more reliant than pretty much any other developed economy on borrowing from those markets. This is just the way it is – ask anyone who worked at Goldman Sachs.

And that logic is worth keeping in mind as Britain’s first hedge fund prime minister takes office and begins to shape policy. Our ability to do what we want to do as a country is dependent on persuading the millions of investors around the world, taking second-by-second decisions on where to put their money, that we are on the right course. Other prime ministers (certainly the last couple) tried to ignore that; it’s unlikely that a “hedge fund prime minister” would.

However, the economic challenges that face Mr Sunak go well beyond the tick-tick-tick of a gilt chart. He enters Number 10 with the UK economy quite plausibly in recession. Energy costs remain at unprecedented highs (even though the wholesale cost of gas has fallen sharply).

So too do food prices and the costs of all sorts of household sundries. Further shocks from the Ukraine war seem highly likely. And on top of this, households will have to contend, in the coming year or so, with a very sharp increase in mortgage costs. Even the slight improvement in those interest rates since Mr Sunak became the odds-on favourite for PM does little to change that.

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Rishi Sunak’s rise to power

In short, even in a best-case scenario for the markets, the coming months for the UK economy are likely to feel grim, with households squeezed at every corner – more than they have been for decades. One can argue the toss over who bears the most responsibility for this – whether that’s the Tory party, central banks or, yes, markets. But that’s what we’re heading for.

Mr Sunak spent most of his time as chancellor doling out money during the pandemic. Normally in a recession, governments tend to “loosen fiscal policy” – which is to say, dole out more money.

But that brings us back to markets. Will those investors be relaxed about Britain borrowing more in the coming years? Will they be assured enough by the hedge fund credentials of the PM to give Britain the benefit of the doubt? Will Mr Sunak want to take that risk?

The past few weeks have been an astonishing ride in politics. We are now off the Truss rollercoaster. The Sunak journey might feel different; it might not have the same twists and turns; but don’t expect it to be especially smooth or enjoyable either.

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Business confidence ‘at two-year low’ as tax hikes loom

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Business confidence 'at two-year low' as tax hikes loom

More than half of private sector firms are planning price hikes to help offset looming tax increases announced in the chancellor’s first budget , according to a corporate lobby group.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) warned business confidence was at its lowest level since the market meltdown that followed the Conservatives’ mini budget of autumn 2022.

Its survey of almost 5,000 firms found worries about tax stood at levels not seen since 2017.

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Labour had fought a growth-focused election on the back of an improved working relationship with business but there was a widespread sense of shock when the 30 October budget put businesses on the hook for the bulk of £40bn of tax increases.

The new government argued the hikes were necessary to lock in long overdue investment in public services due to an alleged black hole in the public finances inherited from the Tories.

But companies widely warned the higher costs, from measures such as higher employer National Insurance contributions and National Living Wage increases from April, would be passed on to customers and hit wage growth, employment and investment.

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At a time when the Bank of England is struggling to cut interest rates due to stubborn cost pressures in the economy, there will be concern among policymakers over the threat posed by potential business price hikes ahead.

The BCC survey found 55% of companies were planning to raise their own sales costs.

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Such a move would threaten further upwards pressure on inflation while weak business confidence will also do little to lift the economy out of the doldrums witnessed during the second half of 2024 when government warnings of a “tough” budget ahead were widely blamed for hitting sentiment.

Financial markets currently see just a 60% chance of a Bank rate cut at the next meeting in a month’s time.

BCC director general Shevaun Haviland said: “The worrying reverberations of the budget are clear to see in our survey data. Businesses’ confidence has slumped in a pressure cooker of rising costs and taxes.

“Firms of all shapes and sizes are telling us the national insurance hike is particularly damaging. Businesses are already cutting back on investment and say they will have to put up prices in the coming months.

“The government is rightly coming up with long-term strategies on industry, infrastructure and trade. But those plans won’t help businesses struggling now.

“Business stands ready to work in partnership to make the proposed Employment Rights legislation work for all, but the current plans will add further costs on firms.”

The BCC said the government could help firms absorb the additional pressures in areas such as business rates reform and through infrastructure investment.

A Treasury spokesperson said in response: “We delivered a once in a parliament budget to wipe the slate clean and deliver the stability businesses so desperately need.

“We have ensured more than half of employers will either see a cut or no change in their National Insurance bills, and by capping the rate of corporation tax at the lowest level in the G7, creating pension megafunds and establishing a National Wealth Fund, we are bringing back political and financial stability, creating the conditions for economic growth through investment and reform.

“This is just the start of our Plan for Change which will unlock investment, get Britain building via planning reform, and employ a modern Industrial Strategy to deliver the certainty and stability businesses need to invest in the UK’s growing and high potential sectors. This will make all parts of the country better off.”

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Montgomery-backed Local TV swoops on Lebedev’s London Live licence

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Montgomery-backed Local TV swoops on Lebedev's London Live licence

A television network majority-owned by David Montgomery, the media entrepreneur, is to snap up the licence to operate a London-focused TV station from Lord Lebedev, owner of the capital’s weekly Standard newspaper.

Sky News has learnt that Local TV Ltd, which was acquired by Mr Montgomery in 2017, is close to announcing a deal to buy the London licence from London Live.

Lord Lebedev was said last month to be exploring a sale of the London Live station he launched in 2014, with The Sunday Times reporting that it had lost more than £20m since it was established.

One media industry source said the deal would take Local TV’s share of the locally broadcast television market to roughly 60%.

It already has channels focused on locations including Birmingham, Leeds and Cardiff.

The company’s eight existing channels are broadcast to more than five million UK households.

While owned by Mr Montgomery, Local TV is run by Lesley Mackenzie, its chief executive.

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Mr Montgomery, the former Mirror Group Newspapers executive, has also been involved in the auction of The Daily Telegraph, having tabled an offer for the right-leaning newspaper last year.

He was reported this weekend to have met Todd Boehly, the Chelsea Football Club co-owner, about collaborating on a bid.

Tim Kirkman, the London Live managing director, declined to comment when reached by Sky News on Sunday afternoon, while Local TV could not be reached for comment.

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Could this be the future of farming? Inside Europe’s biggest vertical farm

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Could this be the future of farming? Inside Europe's biggest vertical farm

Outside it is the bleak midwinter. We are smack bang in the middle of some of the country’s best agricultural land.

But inside the cavernous warehouse where we’ve come, you wouldn’t have a clue about any of that: there is no daylight; it feels like it could be any time of the day, any season of the year.

We are at Fischer Farms – Europe’s biggest vertical farm.

The whole point of a vertical farm is to create an environment where you can grow plants, stacked on top of each other (hence: vertical) in high density. The idea being that you can grow your salads or peas somewhere close to the cities where they’re consumed rather than hundreds of miles away. Location is not supposed to matter.

Image:
Farm 2 of Fischer Farms

So the fact that this particular one is to be found amid the fields a few miles outside Norwich is somewhat irrelevant. It could be anywhere. Indeed, unlike most farms, which are sometimes named after the family that owns them or a local landmark, this one is simply called “Farm 2”. “Farm 1” is to be found in Staffordshire, in case you were wondering.

Farm boss’s dizzying ambition

These futuristic farm units are the brainwave of Tristan Fischer, a serial entrepreneur who has spent much of his career working on renewable energy in its various guises. His ambition now is dizzying: to be able to grow not just basil and chives in a farm like this but to grow other, trickier and more competitive crops too – from strawberries to wheat and rice.

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Only then, he says, can vertical farming stand a chance of truly changing the world.

The idea behind vertical farming itself is more than a century old. Back in 1915, American geologist Gilbert Ellis Bailey described how it could be done in theory. In theory, one should be able to grow plants hydroponically – in other words with a mineral substrate instead of soil – in a controlled environment and thereby increase the yield dramatically.

In one sense this is what’s already being done in greenhouses across much of Northern Europe and the US, where tomatoes and other warm-weather-loving vegetables are grown in temperature-controlled environments. However, while most of these greenhouses still depend on natural light (if sometimes bolstered by electric bulbs) the point behind vertical farming was that by controlling the amount of light, one could grow more or less everything, any time of the year. And by stacking the crops together one could yield even more crops in each acre of land one was using.

Image:
The tunnels are 12 levels high and bathed in bright LED lights

Look at a long-term chart of agricultural yields in this country and you start to see why this might matter. The quantity of crops we grow in each acre of land jumped dramatically in the second half of the 20th century – a consequence in part of liberal use of artificial fertiliser and in part of new technologies and systems. But that productivity rate started to tail off towards the end of the century.

‘Changing the equation’

Vertical farming promises, if it can make the numbers add up, to change the equation, dramatically increasing agricultural productivity in the coming decades. The question is whether the technology is there yet.

And when it comes to the technology, one thing has certainly changed. Those early vertical farms (the first attempts actually date back to the 1950s) all had a big problem: the bulbs. Incandescent bulbs were both too hot and too energy intensive to work in these environments. But the latest generation of LED bulbs are both cool and cheap, and it’s these bulbs you need (in vast numbers) if you’re going to make vertical farming work.

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Image:
The farm is growing basil but the ambition is to grow much more than simple herbs

Here at Farm 2, you encounter row after row of trays, each stacked on top of each other, each carrying increasingly leafy basil plants. They sit under thousands of little LED bulbs which are tuned to precisely the right spectral frequency to encourage the plant to grow rapidly.

Mr Fischer says: “We’re on this downward cost curve on LEDs. And then when you think about other main inputs, energy – renewable energy – is constantly coming down as well.

“So you think about all the big drivers of vertical farming, they’re going down, whereas compared to full-grown crops, everything’s going up – the fertilisers, rents, water is becoming more expensive too.”

Image:
Just over a month after the basil was seeded, it is now fully grown and trays of the crop are moved to the harvesting machine

This farm – which currently sells to restaurant chains rather than direct to consumers – is now cost-competitive with the basil shipped (or more often flown) in from the Mediterranean and North Africa. The carbon footprint is considerably lower too.

“And our long-term goal is that we can get a lot cheaper,” says Mr Fischer. “If you look at Farm 1, we spent about £2.5m on lights in 2018. Fast forward to Farm 2; it’s seven and a half times bigger and in those three years the lights were effectively half the price. We’re also probably using 60 to 70 percent less power.”

Farm boss Tristan Fischer speaks to Sky's Ed Conway
Image:
Farm boss Tristan Fischer speaks to Sky’s Ed Conway

It might seem odd to hear a farmer talk so much about energy and comparatively less about the kinds of things one associates with farmers – the soil or tractors or the weather – but vertical farming is in large part an energy business. If energy prices are low enough, it makes the crops here considerably cheaper.

But here in the UK, with power costs higher than anywhere else in the developed world, the prospects for this business are more challenged than elsewhere. Still, Mr Fischer’s objective is to prove the business case here before building bigger units elsewhere, in countries with much cheaper power.

In much the same way as Dutch growers came to dominate those greenhouses, he thinks the UK has a chance of dominating this new agricultural sector.

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