Don’t expect Britain’s first hedge fund premiership to be smooth or enjoyable | Ed Conway
Rishi Sunak is not just our first British Asian prime minister, our first Hindu PM.
He is not just the youngest prime minister of the modern era. He is also the youngest since the Napoleonic wars and the first millennial PM.
Just as intriguingly, and possibly even more consequentially, he is Britain’s first hedge fund prime minister too.
Before he was a politician, Mr Sunak worked in finance, both at Goldman Sachs and Chris Hohn’s hedge fund – The Children’s Investment Fund Management. His time in the sector was relatively short, but it nonetheless makes for a CV quite unlike almost every other resident of 10 Downing Street.
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Markets shaped him. And now, at the very point when the rise and fall of certain benchmarks are influencing British politics more than in any era since at least the early 1990s, we have a prime minister who takes those markets unusually seriously.
Markets helped him through the door. For, in the end, what did for Liz Truss was the extraordinary response to her mini-budget, which contributed to a dramatic leap in interest rates on both government debt and mortgages. That in turn triggered a crisis in the gilt markets which underlie Britain’s financial system.
And markets have welcomed him. The news that Boris Johnson was pulling out of the leadership race was followed by a sudden rise in the value of the pound. When trading opened in government bonds this morning, they very quickly rallied. The implied interest rate on these bonds dropped sharply.
And since these markets are the foundations of the rest of the financial system, that had an instant effect on prices elsewhere. After the mini-budget, traders were expecting Bank of England interest rates to rise to well above 6% next year; this morning the expected peak dropped below 5% for the first time since that fiscal event.
At this stage you are doubtless wondering: why on earth does any of this matter? Why are we paying so much attention to the markets? Why (as some might put it) is Britain allowing the whims of the globalist elite – the “Davos consensus” – to shape its policy? Whatever happened to democracy?
And, frankly, you have a point. A democratic country’s policies should be shaped by politicians elected by its people. That’s part of the unwritten social contract that binds us.
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But the reality – depressing as it might be – is that the ability of those politicians to act is circumscribed by markets. They can, to give you a straightforward example, only borrow to the extent that investors around the world are willing to lend them money.
Markets matter not because they are right or wrong (that’s not how it works) but because that’s where the money is. And Britain, a country with enormous “twin deficits” on its current account and government account, is more reliant than pretty much any other developed economy on borrowing from those markets. This is just the way it is – ask anyone who worked at Goldman Sachs.
And that logic is worth keeping in mind as Britain’s first hedge fund prime minister takes office and begins to shape policy. Our ability to do what we want to do as a country is dependent on persuading the millions of investors around the world, taking second-by-second decisions on where to put their money, that we are on the right course. Other prime ministers (certainly the last couple) tried to ignore that; it’s unlikely that a “hedge fund prime minister” would.
However, the economic challenges that face Mr Sunak go well beyond the tick-tick-tick of a gilt chart. He enters Number 10 with the UK economy quite plausibly in recession. Energy costs remain at unprecedented highs (even though the wholesale cost of gas has fallen sharply).
So too do food prices and the costs of all sorts of household sundries. Further shocks from the Ukraine war seem highly likely. And on top of this, households will have to contend, in the coming year or so, with a very sharp increase in mortgage costs. Even the slight improvement in those interest rates since Mr Sunak became the odds-on favourite for PM does little to change that.
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Rishi Sunak’s rise to power
In short, even in a best-case scenario for the markets, the coming months for the UK economy are likely to feel grim, with households squeezed at every corner – more than they have been for decades. One can argue the toss over who bears the most responsibility for this – whether that’s the Tory party, central banks or, yes, markets. But that’s what we’re heading for.
Mr Sunak spent most of his time as chancellor doling out money during the pandemic. Normally in a recession, governments tend to “loosen fiscal policy” – which is to say, dole out more money.
But that brings us back to markets. Will those investors be relaxed about Britain borrowing more in the coming years? Will they be assured enough by the hedge fund credentials of the PM to give Britain the benefit of the doubt? Will Mr Sunak want to take that risk?
The past few weeks have been an astonishing ride in politics. We are now off the Truss rollercoaster. The Sunak journey might feel different; it might not have the same twists and turns; but don’t expect it to be especially smooth or enjoyable either.
The world’s most valuable company, and first to be valued at $4trn (£2.9trn), beat market expectations in keenly anticipated financial results.
Microchip maker Nvidia recorded revenues of $46.7bn (£34.6bn) in just three months up to July, latest financial data from the company showed, slightly better than Wall Street observers had expected.
The company’s performance is seen as a bellwether for artificial intelligence (AI) demand, with investors paying close attention to see whether the hype is overblown or if significant investment will pay off.
Originally a creator of gaming graphics hardware, Nvidia’s chips help power AI capability – and the UK’s most powerful supercomputer.
Nvidia’s graphics processors underpin products such as ChatGPT from OpenAI and Gemini from Google.
Other tech giants – Microsoft, Meta and Amazon – make up Nvidia’s biggest customers and are paying large sums to embed AI into their products.
Why does it matter?
Nvidia has been central to the boom in AI development and the surge in tech stock valuations, which has seen stock markets reach record highs.
It represents about 8% of the value of the US S&P 500 stock market index of companies relied on to be stable and profitable.
Strong results will continue to fuel record highs in the market. Conversely, results that fail to live up to the hype could trigger a market tumble.
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Nvidia itself saw its share price rise more than 40% over the past year. Its value impacts anyone with cash in the US stock market, such as pension funds.
The S&P 500 rose 14% over the past year, and the tech-company-heavy NASDAQ gained 21%, largely thanks to Nvidia.
As such, its earnings can move markets as much as major economic or monetary policy announcements, like an interest rate decision.
Sir Keir Starmer with NVIDIA chief Huang at London Tech Week. Pic: AP
What next?
Revenue rises are forecast to continue to rise as Nvidia said it expected a rise to roughly $54bn (£40bn) in the next three months, more than the $53.14bn (£39.3bn) anticipated by analysts.
This excludes any potential shipments to China as export of Nvidia’s H20 chip, designed with the Biden administration’s export crackdown on advanced AI powering chips in mind, had been banned under US national security grounds.
But in recent weeks, Nvidia and another chipmaker, AMD, reached an unprecedented agreement to pay the Trump administration a 15% portion of China sales in return for export licences to send chips to China.
There were no H20 sales at all to China in the second quarter of the year, the period for which results were released on Wednesday evening.
Previously, 13% of Nvidia’s revenue came from China, with nearly 50% coming from the US.
Market reaction
Despite the expectation-beating results, Nvidia shares were down in after-hours trading, as the massive revenue rises previously booked by the company were not repeated in the latest quarter.
Compared to a year ago, revenues rose 56% and 6% compared to the three months up to April.
The absence of Chinese sales in forecasts appeared to disappoint.
A larger than expected hike in the energy price cap from October is largely down to higher costs being imposed by the government.
The typical sum households face paying for gas and electricity when using direct debit is to rise by 2% – or £2.93 per month – to £1,755, the energy watchdog Ofgem announced.
The current price cap is £1,720 a year. A 1% increase had been widely forecast.
The latest bill settlement, covering the final quarter of the year until the next price review takes effect from January, will affect around 20 million households.
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There are 14 million others, such as those on pre-payment meters, who will also see bills rise by a similar level.
Those on fixed deals, which are immune from price cap shifts until such time as the term ends, currently stands at 20 million.
Wholesale prices – volatile since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine back in February 2022 – have been the main driver of rising bills.
But they are making little contribution to the looming increase.
Ofgem explained that government measures, such as the expansion of the warm home discount announced in June, were mainly responsible.
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The discount is set to add £15 to the average annual bill.
It will provide £150 in support to 2.7 million extra people this year, bringing the total number of beneficiaries to six million.
The balance is made up from money needed to upgrade the power network.
Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “While there is still more to do, we are seeing signs of a healthier market. There are more people on fixed tariffs saving themselves money, switching is rising as options for consumers increase, and we’ve seen increases in customer satisfaction, alongside a reduction in complaints.
“While today’s change is below inflation, we know customers might not be feeling it in their pockets. There are things you can do though – consider a fixed tariff as this could save more than £200 against the new cap. Paying by direct debit or smart pay as you go could also save you money.
“In the longer term, we will continue to see fluctuations in our energy prices until we are insulated from volatile international gas markets. That’s why we continue to work with government and the sector to diversify our energy mix to reduce the reliance on markets we do not control.”
The looming price cap lift will leave bills around the same sort of level they were in October last year but it will take hold at a time when overall inflation is higher.
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Food price increases, also partly blamed on government measures such as the national insurance contributions hike imposed on employers, have led the main consumer prices index to a current level of 3.8%.
It is predicted to rise to at least 4% in the coming months, further squeezing household budgets.
Ministers argue that efforts to make the UK less reliant on natural gas, through investment in renewable power sources, will help bring down bills in future.
Energy minister Michael Shanks said: “We know that any price rise is a concern for families. Wholesale gas prices remain 75% above their levels before Russia invaded Ukraine. That is the fossil fuel penalty being paid by families, businesses and our economy.
“That is why the only answer for Britain is this government’s mission to get us off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel prices and onto clean, homegrown power we control, to bring down bills for good.
“At the same time, we are determined to take urgent action to support vulnerable families this winter. That includes expanding the £150 Warm Home Discount to 2.7 million more households and stepping up our overhaul of the energy system to increase protections for customers.”
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