How the war in Ukraine is impacting Russian players in the NHL and beyond
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Russian-born players in the NHL have dealt with uncertainty, concern for the safety and well-being of loved ones back home, and harassment by fans, while being expected by some to speak out against their home country.
The league has also faced complex issues, including precarious cross-border travel and managing international relationships.
Simply put by one NHL GM: “It’s the elephant in the room right now.”
Added another GM: “This is a complicated situation that, quite frankly, a lot of us aren’t qualified to speak on. And so out of respect for those players, we’ve kept the conversation out of the public sphere.”
Here are some of the dynamics going on behind the scenes in the NHL as the war continues.
Life for players in the NHL
Last season, many Russian players declined to speak to the media altogether after the invasion. If Russian players did speak, it was nearly always under the agreement with journalists that there would be “no Russia questions.”
Forty Russian-born players made opening night rosters in the NHL. (There are currently no Ukrainian-born players in the league.)
As locker rooms have reopened to the media this season, those players are more accessible. One Russian player told ESPN that he was in an “impossible situation.”
“The media wants us to talk just so they can get us to say things to fit their story,” the player said. “But they don’t actually understand the situation, or what it’s like for our families, or what’s actually going on. If I say I am proud of where I am from and I love being Russian, I am painted as a bad guy — even if I do not support the war. So what am I supposed to do, lie?”
That’s why, the player said, it’s easiest not to say anything at all. He also noted that the topic of war hasn’t been brought up by his teammates in the locker room or on road trips as “we just focus on our jobs, and that is hockey.”
“People want [our players] to speak up in a certain way, but you’re not going to tell someone how to think politically — just like how you avoid conversations about religion or politics at Thanksgiving,” one GM with multiple Russian players on his roster told ESPN. “It’s conflicting for the athletes, and a weird dynamic.”
For Russian players, the biggest concern has been their own security, as well as the security of their families. According to several sources, some teams — especially teams with strong resources — are doing things behind the scenes to help support Russian players. That includes helping obtain visas for family members and even helping them relocate.
The war hasn’t affected contracts for current NHL players, but it has affected their overall earnings. The equipment manufacturer CCM, for example, stopped using Russian players in all global marketing campaigns. According to several NHL marketing agents, there are very few brands looking to do new business with Russian-born players as they wait out the climate. There are, however, expected to be marketing activations around Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin this season as he closes in on Gordie Howe on the all-time scoring chart.
Ovechkin has been a topic of conversation throughout the war, given his previous vocal support for Vladimir Putin — and the fact that he still appears with Putin in his Instagram profile picture. But those closest to Ovechkin have maintained that the dynamics for one of Russia’s most well-known athletes are complex, and there are still concerns over his family back home, which is one of the reasons he hasn’t changed his photo.
Travel for Russian players
According to sources, no NHL teams prevented their Russian-born players from traveling home this summer, despite the unpredictability of travel restrictions. “How are you going to tell a guy not to visit his family, the place he grew up?” one general manager said. “But I think a lot of us were holding our breath, just making sure there were no hiccups.”
The process for reapplying for visas was much more complicated — and slower — than in years past.
The U.S. consulate in Moscow has suspended visa services, so many Russian-born players flew to other countries to get their paperwork approved, which caused a few headaches. But as one agent said, “That was on the U.S. government — they are the ones that made it more difficult.”
When the San Jose Sharks and Nashville Predators opened their season in Prague as part of the NHL Global Series, the Czech foreign ministry initially told the league that Russian players would not be welcome because of the war in Ukraine.
The Sharks, from GM Mike Grier to captain Logan Couture, drew a hard stance publicly: If the Russians couldn’t go, the entire team would not go.
The Czech government eventually dropped its attempted ban. The Predators’ Yakov Trenin and the Sharks’ Alexander Barabanov and Evgeny Svechnikov all played in Prague. According to people close to the players, they did not experience any hostility and were even stopped for photographs and autographs by fans during the trip.
At the league level
The NHL condemned the Russian government shortly after February’s invasion and ended all business relations in Russia — including its Russian-language website, media and sponsorship deals. The league office was also quick to separate the acts of the Russian government with the league’s Russian players. The NHL said it would support its players, including adding extra security, which has continued this season.
The NHL and NHLPA have been working with the IIHF on hosting a World Cup of Hockey in February 2024. The IIHF has banned Russia from international events, but the NHL and NHLPA are hopeful that they could find a solution — such as having Russian athletes compete under a neutral name or flag. But deputy commissioner Bill Daly said other participating countries don’t view that as satisfactory and are advocating for no Russian player participation at all.
“Especially since the NHL didn’t go to the last two Olympics, playing in this tournament is deeply personal for Russian players,” agent Dan Milstein, who represents a majority of the Russian players in the NHL, told ESPN. “I will be working closely with everyone involved to find a solution here. We will fight until the end. This is a very important issue for the players, and not including them is absolutely unfair.”
The KHL issue
One concern for the NHL is its relationship with the Kontinental Hockey League, a league that includes teams from several countries, but the large majority of them are based in Russia. The KHL, which is widely considered the second-best hockey league in the world, has been on good terms with the NHL. The NHL had been considering sending a team to Russia for exhibition games, or reintroducing a KHL/NHL crossover event. Those discussions are on indefinite hold, with the league ending all business relations with Russia.
The KHL and NHL had a “memorandum of understanding” that required each league to respect each other’s player contracts. No KHL team has violated that memorandum, but many NHL executives wondered whether that might change. “I want to see what happens this current season,” Daly told ESPN in August. “I don’t really know one way or the other yet.”
One NHL executive presented this scenario: “If a player isn’t happy with his playing time, or down to the AHL, who’s to say he doesn’t just bolt home and sign a contract over there? That’s a real possibility now.”
Ivan Fedotov
One player in particular who was caught up in the geopolitical maelstrom: Flyers prospect Ivan Fedotov, who was expected to compete for Philadelphia’s backup goaltending position this season. Fedotov played last season for the KHL’s CSKA Moscow, which is considered an extension of the Russian Army. Fedotov signed a contract with the Flyers in May, and two months later, while skating at a rink in St. Petersburg, he was arrested by a SWAT team and sent to a military base in Severomorsk. All men ages 18-27 in Russia must serve in the military unless they have an official exemption, which is usually university studies. Fedotov was detained on grounds of military evasion.
“This type of snatching and sending young men to arctic bases has been used as retaliation against opposition figures in Russia,” Washington Post Russia correspondent Mary Ilyushina explained to ESPN. “In this case, it may not have to do with opposition but rather abandoning a Russia club for an American one.”
Fedotov hired a military lawyer, who reported that Fedotov was hospitalized after receiving “some kind of injections.” Fedotov has since been transferred to another base. His legal team dropped his appeal for the charges of evasion, and according to sources, he is hopeful that after serving a year in the military he will be released and allowed to come to the United States to begin his NHL career.
This is a case the league is following closely, as it could be the first example of the NHL and KHL memorandum being violated. Considering CSKA Moscow’s relationship with the military, it’s possible Fedotov could be required to play for CSKA Moscow.
One general manager said he’s not as concerned for well-established veterans, but more so for the prospects and younger players in the league. “They seem more susceptible to getting caught up with military service, et cetera,” the GM said. “And of course there is now the real concern — one that we used to have for years, but had gone away of late — about getting those guys over here and signing contracts. “
The draft and Russian prospects
Many in the scouting community predicted that Russians would be shut out of the first round of the 2022 NHL draft for the first time since 2005. However, three Russian players were selected in the first round in July: Pavel Mintyukov (Anaheim Ducks, No. 10), Ivan Miroshnichenko (Washington Capitals, No. 20) and Danila Yurov (Minnesota Wild, No. 24). It’s much easier for NHL teams to draft players already playing in North America, like Minyukov and Yurov, who were in the Ontario Hockey League.
Miroshnichenko is more of a risk. He was once projected as a lottery pick, but dropped because he was still in Russia playing in the second division last season and because he will miss the 2022-23 season after being diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. The Capitals viewed his draft selection as a gamble, but the upside was too much to pass up.
Matvei Michkov is considered a top-three pick in the 2023 draft, and his stock will be interesting to monitor as he plays this season for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL. Several NHL teams have pulled scouts from Russia, but it’s hard to gauge how many organizations have a Russian presence as some teams may have consultants on payroll. Either way, Michkov will go the entire season with very few people from NHL organizations having eyes on him. Scouts say it helps that Michkov has played in well-attended tournaments over the past two years, such as the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup and the 2021 world juniors in Texas.
Michkov is under contract with the KHL through the 2025-26 season. “At those tournaments he looked like a world-class talent, someone worthy of going top-two, -three of the draft,” one veteran amateur scout said. “But I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a precipitous drop simply because of the circumstance.”
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David Hale
The first College Football Playoff rankings came out five weeks ago. They looked a lot like tonight’s rankings.
We’ve had precious little movement at the top, with a few teams jockeying up or down a slot, but effectively no seismic shifts in the landscape. BYU and Texas are the only two teams that were projected in the field in the committee’s first ranking that aren’t now — and they’re just barely on the outside with reasonable arguments for inclusion.
Teams ranked in the top 18 by the committee this year are a combined 55-9, with six of those losses coming to other teams ranked in the top 18. All three outliers are courtesy of — you guessed it — the ACC (Louisville to Cal, Virginia to Wake and Georgia Tech to Pitt).
That’s a massive anomaly. Last year, top-18 teams at this point had lost 19 games, including 14 to teams outside their own grouping. Top-10 teams are 33-4 this year. In the first 11 years of the playoff, top-10 teams had lost an average of nine games by this point in the season.
The two words that best describe this year’s playoff push are “status quo.”
That, of course, has been bad news for all the teams on the outside looking in — from those with valid cases such as Miami, BYU and Vanderbilt, to underdogs such as USC, Utah or Arizona that might’ve had a shot in a more chaotic year.
But the real loser in this copy and paste rankings season is all the fans who just want to see things get weird. It’s a sad state of affairs when we’re left to rely on MACtion and the ACC to do all the heavy lifting when it comes to college football drama. The power players need to step up — or, perhaps, ratchet down — their game to add a bit more drama.
The good news is, the committee’s ad hoc reasoning, mushmouthed explanations and mind-boggling about-faces still leave plenty to argue about, even if the big picture hasn’t changed all that much.
Here’s this week’s biggest slights, snubs and shenanigans.
It’s not entirely clear how this committee values wins. For the past month, the priority has certainly appeared to be about which team has the better losses (unless, of course, you’re Alabama).
That seems a foolish way to prioritize playoff teams, since the goal of the playoff isn’t to lose to good teams but to win games.
Does Texas have a bad loss? Yes. A 29-21 defeat to woeful Florida — even if the Gators also played Georgia and Ole Miss close and just walloped a team that beat Alabama head-to-head — is problematic.
But look who Texas has beaten: No. 7 Texas A&M by 10, No. 8 Oklahoma by 17 and No. 14 Vandy by three (in a game they led by 24 in the fourth quarter). That’s the résumé of a team capable of winning a national championship — even if the Horns were also capable of losing to a second-rate SEC team.
Are we trying to find teams with the most upside or give participation trophies to the ones which have not lost an ugly one? (Except, again, Alabama.)
And it’s not as if the committee believes an extra loss is disqualifying. Oklahoma, Alabama, Notre Dame and Miami all have two losses and are ranked ahead of one-loss BYU (more on that in a moment), so what’s the harm of moving a three-loss Texas ahead of a two-loss team that has accomplished less?
This all comes back to the most frequent and justified criticism of the committee: The same rules aren’t applied evenly. In some cases, record matters. In some cases, best wins matter. In some cases, better losses matter. The standard varies based on the team being considered. But if the committee is going to err in favor of any team, it should probably do so for one that’s proved — not once, not twice, but three times — that it can beat an elite opponent.
Oh, and moving Texas up ahead of, say, Notre Dame would also have the added bonus of allowing the committee to sidestep another tricky situation. Which leads us to…
We’re putting these two teams together because we’ve already lamented the committee’s utterly disingenuous evaluation of them repeatedly, so it feels redundant to keep going down the same rabbit hole. But, for the sake of two programs being astonishingly misevaluated, let’s do one more round.
For Miami, the logic is obvious: The Canes beat Notre Dame head-to-head.
But let’s keep going. Miami’s two losses — SMU and Louisville — would rank as the fourth- and fifth-toughest games on Notre Dame’s schedule, had the Irish played them. Instead, Notre Dame has cruised through an essentially listless slate. Six of Notre Dame’s 10 wins came against teams that beat zero or one other Power 4 opponent. Stanford — seriously, Stanford! — is Notre Dame’s fourth-best win (by record). Yes, Notre Dame played well enough in losses to two very good teams, but one of those teams has the same record and is somehow ranked lower! Even if this is strictly about the “eye test,” there’s little argument for ignoring the head-to-head outcome. Notre Dame’s strength of record is 13th. Miami’s is 14th. Notre Dame’s game control is fifth. Miami’s is sixth. If all else is the same, how is head-to-head not the deciding factor?
Yet, here’s a little more salt in the wound for the Canes: Had Florida State finished 6-2 instead of 2-6 in ACC play, Miami would’ve won the (fifth) tiebreaker for a spot in the ACC title game and could’ve locked up its place in the playoff by simply beating Virginia. Instead, the Canes will sit at home and watch and hope and, at this point, probably get left out. Chess, not checkers, by rival FSU.
As for BYU, the committee’s desire to overlook the Cougars makes no sense. Let’s take a look at a blind résumé, shall we? (Note: Best wins and composite top 40 based on an average of SP+, FPI and Sagarin ratings.)
Team A: No. 6 strength of record, No. 14 game control, best win vs. No. 11, next vs. No. 28, loss to No. 5, four wins vs. composite top 40, five wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Team B: No. 7 strength of record, No. 10 game control, best win vs. No. 13, next vs. No. 27, loss to No. 7, three wins vs. composite top-40, two wins vs. teams that finished 7-5 or better
Now, just based on that information, Team A would seem the obvious choice. Now what if I told you Team B just lost its head coach, too?
That’s right, Team A is BYU and Team B is Ole Miss. Every bit of data here suggests the Cougars are, at worst, on even footing with the Rebels or ahead, and yet the committee has Ole Miss ranked five spots higher.
This is, arguably, the second year in a row in which BYU was clearly the most overlooked team in the country.
A week ago, Notre Dame was ranked one spot ahead of Alabama.
Then on Saturday, the Irish beat 4-8 Stanford by 29 (in a game they at one point led 42-3), while Alabama beat 5-7 Auburn by seven (in a game the Tigers had a chance to tie before fumbling in Tide territory late).
The committee looked at those two results and said, “You know what, we like what we saw from the Tide! Move ’em up!”
What could possibly be the logic for shifting opinions on these two teams? The only other team that jumped another winning team was Texas, and the Longhorns beat the No. 3 team in the country emphatically, not a second-tier team that fired its head coach a month ago.
Oh, and hasn’t the committee made it pretty clear losses are supposed to matter? Well, Notre Dame has two losses to teams ranked in the top 12. Alabama got beat by a Florida State team that finished 5-7.
Even by the eye test, this makes little sense. Notre Dame has proved to be one of the most complete, dominant teams in the country, with a secondary that’s near impossible to throw on, a rookie quarterback who has been nearly flawless and a running back who might well be the best player in the country. Alabama, on the other hand, has a one-note offense that can’t run the football.
We’re not believers in using advanced metrics as a ranking of accomplishment, but if this is simply a “who’s better” debate…
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SP+ ranks Notre Dame fifth and Alabama 12th.
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FPI ranks Notre Dame third and Alabama sixth.
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Sagarin ranks Notre Dame second and Alabama seventh.
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FEI ranks Notre Dame fourth and Alabama ninth.
So, again, we ask: Why would the committee possibly make this change?
We’d wager you know the answer. That sticky Canes vs. Irish head-to-head debate is a real headache for the committee. But if Notre Dame’s currently the last team in and something unexpected happens this weekend (hello, BYU over Texas Tech), then the committee can do as it did in 2014 and wash its hands of a tough choice and keep both Notre Dame and Miami out.
(It’s also interesting that a seven-point win over a team with a losing record is enough to jump Notre Dame, but a 31-point win over a ranked Pitt did nothing for Miami’s relative placement with the Irish despite — and we’re not sure anyone has mentioned this yet — a head-to-head win!)
But, speaking of Alabama…
4. Championship game participants
Step into the time machine with us for a moment, all the way back to championship week 2024. Here’s the state of play: Alabama, at 9-3, is ranked No. 11, the first team out of the playoff and also out of the SEC title game. Still, the Tide and the SEC hope there’s a pathway to salvation because SMU — 11-1 and ranked eighth — still has a game to play against Clemson in the ACC championship. If the Mustangs were to lose, couldn’t the committee then justify slotting SMU behind Alabama based on another data point, even though the Tide were simply sitting at home watching the action?
This was the case being made throughout the run up to the ACC championship last season. SMU, which should’ve been celebrating a miraculously successful first season in the Power 4, spent hours upon hours defending itself against criticism that it didn’t belong in the same conversation with big, bad Bama. Rhett Lashlee hinted he thought the committee’s vote was rigged, SMU players lamented their status on the chopping block despite a ranking that should’ve put them safely in the playoff field, and SEC commissioner Greg Sankey made the rounds arguing that Alabama’s (and Ole Miss’ and South Carolina’s) strength of schedule ought to put them ahead of SMU (and others).
OK, back to the present day. Here we are with Alabama sitting perilously on the dividing line between in the field and out — a week ago, it would have been the last team in, but of course the committee had other ideas this time around — with a game to play against Georgia in the SEC championship. An ACC team (Miami) sits just a tick behind the Tide in the rankings, but it will be off this week.
So, what happens if Alabama loses?
The comparison to last year’s SMU isn’t even a particularly fair one. The Mustangs were at No. 8 before the ACC title game. Alabama is at No. 9 (and probably should be a spot or two lower). SMU’s game against Clemson was new territory. A loss to Georgia will actually undermine Alabama’s best argument for inclusion — the three-point win in Athens in September. And while SMU did make the playoff field last year, a last-second loss on a 56-yard field goal still dropped the Mustangs from No. 8 to No. 10 in the rankings.
Play this scenario out now: Alabama, ranked at No. 9, plays a team that currently counts as the Tide’s best win. Imagine if Georgia wins the rematch and does so convincingly. The committee docked SMU two spots for a last-second loss, so surely it will do at least that much to Alabama for a more convincing defeat, right? And here’s the other thing: Even with the ACC title game loss last year, SMU was 11-2 — one less loss than Alabama had. A Tide loss in the SEC title game will be defeat No. 3 — one more than Notre Dame or Miami or (presumably) BYU.
It’s hard not to see a conspiracy here given the committee’s inexplicable flip-flop between Alabama and Notre Dame. It’s hard not to see brand bias in how the Tide’s championship week narrative diverges from SMU’s a year ago. It’s not at all hard to envision a scenario where Alabama loses to Georgia, gets in as the last team anyway, and it’s all explained away as a completely reasonable decision.
Well, the committee finally weighed in on more than one team outside the Power 4 — mostly because it was just impossible to find enough Power 4 teams worth ranking — and the news isn’t good for JMU. With the committee deciding already that North Texas is the higher ranked team, the Dukes’ only hope for the playoff would seem to be a Duke win in the ACC title game.
But what exactly has the committee seen to warrant that decision? Check out the numbers.
Best win (by average FPI, SP+ and Sagarin ranking)
JMU: No. 54 Old Dominion
UNT: No. 62 Washington State
Next best
JMU: No. 62 Washington State
UNT: No. 68 Navy
Loss
JMU: No. 29 Louisville
UNT: No. 24 USF
Wins vs. bowl-eligible
JMU: six
UNT: five
Strength of record
JMU: 18th
UNT: 22nd
FPI
JMU: 28th
UNT: 37th
There are certainly some check marks in North Texas’ favor, including a more impressive win over common opponent Washington State and a slightly better SP+ ranking, but on the whole, James Madison has had the tougher path here. That can change should UNT beat Tulane, but the committee should’ve waited for that to happen. Instead, it has made it clear JMU isn’t sniffing the playoff unless it comes at the expense of the ACC.
Also angry this week: Vanderbilt Commodores (10-2, No. 14); The ACC leadership who voted on its tiebreaker policies; Manny Diaz, who has to try to make a coherent argument for his five-loss Duke Blue Devils getting in ahead of a one-loss JMU; Every 8-4 team with a markedly better résumé than 9-3 Houston, which isn’t ranked this week; and Lane Kiffin’s yoga instructor and Juice Kiffin’s dog walker.
Welcome to the party, James Madison.
With the inclusion of JMU at No. 25 in the selection committee’s penultimate ranking — its first appearance all season — the possibility of the ACC being excluded from the playoff entirely just got real. Five-loss Duke is nowhere to be found in the ranking.
If Duke beats Virginia in the ACC championship game, it’s not guaranteed a spot in the 12-team field. It could open the door for two Group of 5 conference champions to compete for a national title, and if the playoff were today, it would be Tulane out of the American and JMU from the Sun Belt. The ACC’s best team, Miami, is still on the outside.
At No. 12, the Hurricanes still need some help, but Alabama increased its chances of earning a spot as the SEC runner-up with a small promotion to No. 9. The conference championship games can still alter the picture, but hope on the bubble is dwindling.
Bubble Watch accounts for what we have learned from the committee so far — and historical knowledge of what it means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with Would be in status below are looking good after the committee’s fifth ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve also listed Still in the mix. Teams that are Out will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they would receive, ranked from the most to least, based on the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M. Right now, the Crimson Tide are the last SEC at-large team in the field. Alabama will face Georgia in the SEC championship game, but the committee could have a difficult decision if Alabama loses and finishes as a three-loss runner-up. The Tide would have defeated Georgia during the regular season but lost to the Bulldogs in the championship game. Even in moving up a spot to No. 9 this week — ahead of Notre Dame — it still seems as if they have a little more margin for error, but how the SEC title game unfolds could matter. And how far Alabama drops could determine if the SEC gets four or five teams in the field. Alabama could finish as the committee’s highest-ranked three-loss team and still be excluded from the playoff to make room for a conference champion — as they were last year.
A Georgia win should lock up a first-round bye and a top-four finish for the Bulldogs, while a loss should still put them in position to host a first-round game. Georgia beat Ole Miss, so it would be surprising to see the Bulldogs drop below the Rebels with a loss, even though the Bulldogs would have one more defeat. With a 35-10 drubbing of Texas also on its résumé, Georgia would still have a strong enough case to finish as the committee’s top two-loss team.
At No. 6, the selection committee moved the Rebels up one spot, so clearly the departure of coach Lane Kiffin to LSU didn’t hurt Ole Miss or its chances of hosting a first-round home game. The bigger reasoning was a promotion after winning the Egg Bowl combined with Texas A&M losing to Texas.
Still in the mix: Texas. The Longhorns moved up to No. 13, but the win against Texas A&M wasn’t enough to put them into the field after the fifth ranking. Texas is stuck behind Miami in part because of its loss to Florida, which Miami beat. Even if BYU and Alabama were knocked out with title game losses, that still probably won’t be enough for Texas to get into the field because the bracket has to make room for conference champions.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon. Both Indiana and Ohio State are CFP locks — even if they lose in the conference title game — and the runner-up will still have a strong case for a top-four finish and a first-round bye. The loser’s only loss will be to a top-two team, but it could fall behind Georgia in the top four if the Bulldogs win the SEC, and/or Texas Tech if it wins the Big 12.
The Ducks punctuated their résumé with a respectable win at Washington and should be secure in their playoff position, probably hosting a first-round game. Oregon received a small boost to No. 5 after Texas A&M lost to Texas.
Still in the mix: None.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will play BYU in the Big 12 title game and have a great case to be in the playoff regardless of the outcome. It’s highly unlikely the selection committee would drop the Red Raiders out of the field as a two-loss Big 12 runner-up — especially considering they would have a regular-season win against the eventual conference champion. It’s also possible Texas Tech earns a first-round bye as a top-four seed if the Red Raiders win the Big 12. The committee moved them into the top four Tuesday night following Texas A&M’s loss during Rivalry Week.
Still in the mix: BYU. If BYU doesn’t win the Big 12, it’s unlikely to earn an at-large bid as the conference runner-up because the Cougars are already on the bubble and would be eliminated during the seeding process if the playoff were today. It’s not impossible, though. If Alabama finishes as a three-loss SEC runner-up, it could at least open the door for debate. BYU would have lost to Texas Tech twice, and Alabama would have defeated Georgia, the eventual SEC champ once — and it was on the road. If BYU wins the Big 12, it’s the ideal scenario for the conference because it would have two teams in the playoff.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, Utah, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: TBD. The ACC championship game will feature Virginia and Duke, and if five-loss Duke wins, it’s possible the ACC is excluded from the playoff since Duke is not part of the CFP rankings. If Virginia wins, it will represent the league in the playoff, as the two-loss Cavaliers are ranked in the top 20. And no, Miami did not play Duke or Virginia during the regular season. Duke lost to Tulane, which is the top Group of 5 playoff contender and will reach the playoff if it wins the American. Duke also lost to UConn. And it has already lost to Virginia 34-17 on Nov. 15.
Still in the mix: Miami. The Canes are still the committee’s highest-ranked ACC team, but they would be excluded if the playoff were today to make room for a conference champion. That means the ACC winner could knock the league’s best team out of the playoff. The committee isn’t ignoring Miami’s head-to-head win against Notre Dame, but it also isn’t comparing the Canes only to the Irish. Miami also needs to earn an edge against BYU — which the committee has deemed better than Miami to this point. Miami inched closer to Notre Dame because Bama moved up Tuesday, but with neither team playing in a conference championship game, would the committee flip them on Selection Day with a BYU loss?
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The Irish have done everything right since their 0-2 start, running the table and doing it with consistent dominance regardless of opponent. At No.10, Notre Dame is in a precarious position. If BYU wins the Big 12 and enters the field, that could bump out the Irish. If BYU wins the Big 12, both BYU and Texas Tech are highly likely to make the playoff, which means someone currently in the top 10 would have to be excluded.
Group of 5
Would be in: Tulane. If the Green Wave win the American, they will represent the Group of 5 in the playoff. Tulane is currently the highest ranked Group of 5 team, but if North Texas beats Tulane on Friday, the Mean Green would be the most likely team to reach the CFP, given the overall strength of the American Conference this season.
Still in the mix: James Madison, North Texas. JMU (11-1) has clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship game, where it will face Troy (8-4) on Friday. North Texas will face Tulane in the American, and if it wins, it’s more likely to represent the Group of 5 in the playoff than JMU because of its schedule strength. JMU could still be considered, though, if Duke wins the ACC, giving the Group of 5 two playoff teams in the 12-team field. With JMU earning a spot in the top 25 this week, the situation became more probable.
Bracket
Based on the committee’s fifth ranking, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Alabama/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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