How the war in Ukraine is impacting Russian players in the NHL and beyond
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Russian-born players in the NHL have dealt with uncertainty, concern for the safety and well-being of loved ones back home, and harassment by fans, while being expected by some to speak out against their home country.
The league has also faced complex issues, including precarious cross-border travel and managing international relationships.
Simply put by one NHL GM: “It’s the elephant in the room right now.”
Added another GM: “This is a complicated situation that, quite frankly, a lot of us aren’t qualified to speak on. And so out of respect for those players, we’ve kept the conversation out of the public sphere.”
Here are some of the dynamics going on behind the scenes in the NHL as the war continues.
Life for players in the NHL
Last season, many Russian players declined to speak to the media altogether after the invasion. If Russian players did speak, it was nearly always under the agreement with journalists that there would be “no Russia questions.”
Forty Russian-born players made opening night rosters in the NHL. (There are currently no Ukrainian-born players in the league.)
As locker rooms have reopened to the media this season, those players are more accessible. One Russian player told ESPN that he was in an “impossible situation.”
“The media wants us to talk just so they can get us to say things to fit their story,” the player said. “But they don’t actually understand the situation, or what it’s like for our families, or what’s actually going on. If I say I am proud of where I am from and I love being Russian, I am painted as a bad guy — even if I do not support the war. So what am I supposed to do, lie?”
That’s why, the player said, it’s easiest not to say anything at all. He also noted that the topic of war hasn’t been brought up by his teammates in the locker room or on road trips as “we just focus on our jobs, and that is hockey.”
“People want [our players] to speak up in a certain way, but you’re not going to tell someone how to think politically — just like how you avoid conversations about religion or politics at Thanksgiving,” one GM with multiple Russian players on his roster told ESPN. “It’s conflicting for the athletes, and a weird dynamic.”
For Russian players, the biggest concern has been their own security, as well as the security of their families. According to several sources, some teams — especially teams with strong resources — are doing things behind the scenes to help support Russian players. That includes helping obtain visas for family members and even helping them relocate.
The war hasn’t affected contracts for current NHL players, but it has affected their overall earnings. The equipment manufacturer CCM, for example, stopped using Russian players in all global marketing campaigns. According to several NHL marketing agents, there are very few brands looking to do new business with Russian-born players as they wait out the climate. There are, however, expected to be marketing activations around Washington Capitals captain Alex Ovechkin this season as he closes in on Gordie Howe on the all-time scoring chart.
Ovechkin has been a topic of conversation throughout the war, given his previous vocal support for Vladimir Putin — and the fact that he still appears with Putin in his Instagram profile picture. But those closest to Ovechkin have maintained that the dynamics for one of Russia’s most well-known athletes are complex, and there are still concerns over his family back home, which is one of the reasons he hasn’t changed his photo.
Travel for Russian players
According to sources, no NHL teams prevented their Russian-born players from traveling home this summer, despite the unpredictability of travel restrictions. “How are you going to tell a guy not to visit his family, the place he grew up?” one general manager said. “But I think a lot of us were holding our breath, just making sure there were no hiccups.”
The process for reapplying for visas was much more complicated — and slower — than in years past.
The U.S. consulate in Moscow has suspended visa services, so many Russian-born players flew to other countries to get their paperwork approved, which caused a few headaches. But as one agent said, “That was on the U.S. government — they are the ones that made it more difficult.”
When the San Jose Sharks and Nashville Predators opened their season in Prague as part of the NHL Global Series, the Czech foreign ministry initially told the league that Russian players would not be welcome because of the war in Ukraine.
The Sharks, from GM Mike Grier to captain Logan Couture, drew a hard stance publicly: If the Russians couldn’t go, the entire team would not go.
The Czech government eventually dropped its attempted ban. The Predators’ Yakov Trenin and the Sharks’ Alexander Barabanov and Evgeny Svechnikov all played in Prague. According to people close to the players, they did not experience any hostility and were even stopped for photographs and autographs by fans during the trip.
At the league level
The NHL condemned the Russian government shortly after February’s invasion and ended all business relations in Russia — including its Russian-language website, media and sponsorship deals. The league office was also quick to separate the acts of the Russian government with the league’s Russian players. The NHL said it would support its players, including adding extra security, which has continued this season.
The NHL and NHLPA have been working with the IIHF on hosting a World Cup of Hockey in February 2024. The IIHF has banned Russia from international events, but the NHL and NHLPA are hopeful that they could find a solution — such as having Russian athletes compete under a neutral name or flag. But deputy commissioner Bill Daly said other participating countries don’t view that as satisfactory and are advocating for no Russian player participation at all.
“Especially since the NHL didn’t go to the last two Olympics, playing in this tournament is deeply personal for Russian players,” agent Dan Milstein, who represents a majority of the Russian players in the NHL, told ESPN. “I will be working closely with everyone involved to find a solution here. We will fight until the end. This is a very important issue for the players, and not including them is absolutely unfair.”
The KHL issue
One concern for the NHL is its relationship with the Kontinental Hockey League, a league that includes teams from several countries, but the large majority of them are based in Russia. The KHL, which is widely considered the second-best hockey league in the world, has been on good terms with the NHL. The NHL had been considering sending a team to Russia for exhibition games, or reintroducing a KHL/NHL crossover event. Those discussions are on indefinite hold, with the league ending all business relations with Russia.
The KHL and NHL had a “memorandum of understanding” that required each league to respect each other’s player contracts. No KHL team has violated that memorandum, but many NHL executives wondered whether that might change. “I want to see what happens this current season,” Daly told ESPN in August. “I don’t really know one way or the other yet.”
One NHL executive presented this scenario: “If a player isn’t happy with his playing time, or down to the AHL, who’s to say he doesn’t just bolt home and sign a contract over there? That’s a real possibility now.”
Ivan Fedotov
One player in particular who was caught up in the geopolitical maelstrom: Flyers prospect Ivan Fedotov, who was expected to compete for Philadelphia’s backup goaltending position this season. Fedotov played last season for the KHL’s CSKA Moscow, which is considered an extension of the Russian Army. Fedotov signed a contract with the Flyers in May, and two months later, while skating at a rink in St. Petersburg, he was arrested by a SWAT team and sent to a military base in Severomorsk. All men ages 18-27 in Russia must serve in the military unless they have an official exemption, which is usually university studies. Fedotov was detained on grounds of military evasion.
“This type of snatching and sending young men to arctic bases has been used as retaliation against opposition figures in Russia,” Washington Post Russia correspondent Mary Ilyushina explained to ESPN. “In this case, it may not have to do with opposition but rather abandoning a Russia club for an American one.”
Fedotov hired a military lawyer, who reported that Fedotov was hospitalized after receiving “some kind of injections.” Fedotov has since been transferred to another base. His legal team dropped his appeal for the charges of evasion, and according to sources, he is hopeful that after serving a year in the military he will be released and allowed to come to the United States to begin his NHL career.
This is a case the league is following closely, as it could be the first example of the NHL and KHL memorandum being violated. Considering CSKA Moscow’s relationship with the military, it’s possible Fedotov could be required to play for CSKA Moscow.
One general manager said he’s not as concerned for well-established veterans, but more so for the prospects and younger players in the league. “They seem more susceptible to getting caught up with military service, et cetera,” the GM said. “And of course there is now the real concern — one that we used to have for years, but had gone away of late — about getting those guys over here and signing contracts. “
The draft and Russian prospects
Many in the scouting community predicted that Russians would be shut out of the first round of the 2022 NHL draft for the first time since 2005. However, three Russian players were selected in the first round in July: Pavel Mintyukov (Anaheim Ducks, No. 10), Ivan Miroshnichenko (Washington Capitals, No. 20) and Danila Yurov (Minnesota Wild, No. 24). It’s much easier for NHL teams to draft players already playing in North America, like Minyukov and Yurov, who were in the Ontario Hockey League.
Miroshnichenko is more of a risk. He was once projected as a lottery pick, but dropped because he was still in Russia playing in the second division last season and because he will miss the 2022-23 season after being diagnosed with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma. The Capitals viewed his draft selection as a gamble, but the upside was too much to pass up.
Matvei Michkov is considered a top-three pick in the 2023 draft, and his stock will be interesting to monitor as he plays this season for SKA St. Petersburg in the KHL. Several NHL teams have pulled scouts from Russia, but it’s hard to gauge how many organizations have a Russian presence as some teams may have consultants on payroll. Either way, Michkov will go the entire season with very few people from NHL organizations having eyes on him. Scouts say it helps that Michkov has played in well-attended tournaments over the past two years, such as the Hlinka-Gretzky Cup and the 2021 world juniors in Texas.
Michkov is under contract with the KHL through the 2025-26 season. “At those tournaments he looked like a world-class talent, someone worthy of going top-two, -three of the draft,” one veteran amateur scout said. “But I wouldn’t be shocked if there’s a precipitous drop simply because of the circumstance.”
Cranberry, Pa. – As Evgeni Malkin sits in an empty locker room at the Penguins practice facility, being interviewed for a story about his longtime teammate Sidney Crosby, the 39-year-old Russian center makes a point for emphasis.
“You see security here?” Malkin says, motioning to the Penguins’ detail, standing discreetly in the doorway. “It’s like, not my security. It’s Sidney Crosby’s security.”
Malkin’s résumé certainly warrants the celebrity treatment: Calder Trophy, Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and, of course, three Stanley Cups in a nine-year span that brought the Penguins back to glory.
But nobody on the Penguins — or perhaps the entire hockey world — can match Crosby’s star power. The captain’s reputation, let alone his list of on-ice accomplishments, is pristine. “You never heard one bad thing about Sidney Crosby,” said Kris Letang, the other member of Pittsburgh’s big three. “He’s perfect. He’s the perfect ambassador for the game.”
It’s why, ahead of Crosby’s 21st season in the NHL, there has been so much discourse about what his future might hold — and whether one of hockey’s most transcendent talents is wasting his final chapter holding on to what he once had in Pittsburgh.
Not only is Crosby’s production absurd (1,687 points in 1,352 career games and counting) but few players in hockey history have remained this consistent and this competitive as they enter their career twilight. While playing his sound two-way game, Crosby scored 91 points (33 goals, 58 assists) in 80 games this past season, leading the Penguins by 21 points. In an NHLPA poll released in April, Crosby was voted by his peers as the “most complete player” in the game — for the sixth straight season.
Edmonton Oilers star Connor McDavid at age 28 — a full decade younger than Crosby — is in the prime of his career. But he still defers to Crosby. McDavid advocated for Crosby to captain Team Canada at last February’s 4 Nations Face-Off, calling it a “no-brainer.”
“He hasn’t seemed to change at all,” McDavid said last fall. “He has been great year after year. It’s so impressive to see someone I grew up admiring still doing it to this day.”
Crosby has once again been able to play meaningful games on the international stage, which should include NHL players’ long-anticipated return to the Olympics this February, where he will likely captain Team Canada again.
The Penguins’ prognosis, however, is not as bright. Pittsburgh’s 16-year Stanley Cup playoffs streak ended in 2023, and the Penguins haven’t returned since. GM Kyle Dubas has been embarking on a rebuild, restocking a prospect pool that was essentially barren, with so many draft picks and young players traded away in order to chase championships. Pittsburgh’s opening night roster will feature five rookies, led by a first-time head coach, Dan Muse, who is just five years older than Crosby. They are loading up for the future.
“We’re in a period of transition, and our goal is, and the expectation is, we’re going to get to the point where we’re not just contenders again, but it’s gonna be contending on a consistent basis,” Muse said. “It’s not just get back into the playoffs; it’s to be a true contender, and then to stay there. And I think that’s been extremely clear to me from day one. And that message has been consistent in the time prior, until now.”
Nobody knows how long that plan will take — including the Penguins. It’s dictated by a series of factors, including development.
Meanwhile Crosby’s performance at 4 Nations (he tied McDavid for the team lead with five points in four games as Canada won the tournament) punctuated how exciting it is to see the 38-year-old on hockey’s most competitive stages still.
Some people around Crosby have tried to advocate that it’s a disservice to hockey to stick around for a rebuild with no end in sight. That includes Crosby’s longtime agent, Pat Brisson, who has said publicly that it’s his personal belief that Crosby needs to be playing playoff hockey.
For his part, Crosby maintains tunnel vision. That might sound like lip service for most people, but not Crosby, whose determination is fueled by details and an obsession for routine. He said his mindset every season is the same — an approach that prepares him to play in June. He maintains that he hasn’t seriously considered a trade to this point.
“I know that if all my energy isn’t towards what it needs to be, then I’m not giving myself the best chance for it to be successful,” Crosby said. “If it ever came to that point, I would discuss it, but I don’t feel like I’m there.”
Crosby’s two-year extension he signed summer 2024 kicks in this season. It’s extremely team friendly: $8.7 million average annual value, perhaps half of what he could receive on the open market. It’s also an extremely tradable contract — and all the cards belong to Crosby, who has a full no-movement clause. League sources believe the Penguins would never approach Crosby to waive it, out of deference to him. A trade would have to be Crosby driven. He would choose the time, and he would choose the destination. The Penguins would need to get compensation they felt is fair. And it all likely would go down quietly.
Or it might not happen at all. Crosby’s future is entirely in his hands. He wants to win again as badly as anyone — but in Pittsburgh. To this point in his career, he has demonstrated incredible loyalty to Pittsburgh, as well as his teammates. That’s especially true with Malkin and Letang; they are longest-tenured trio of teammates in major North American sports history
“He’s a very special person for me, because he’s probably my best friend here in Pittsburgh,” Malkin said. “First guy I met when I went to Pittsburgh, I go to dinner with Mario [Lemieux] and Sid. And after, we’re always together. I mean, he texts me all summer, you know? He texts me during season, we try to support each other. It’s not always perfect, you know? Sometimes, like, we need to understand each other. Some guys have problem with, like, games, with families, you know? Like — and he asks me, like — all the time like, ‘If you need anything, come to my house.'”
Malkin enters the final year of his contract and trade speculation is sure to ramp up around his name as well. As the Penguins opened camp, Malkin said he hopes it won’t be his last season in Pittsburgh, but admitted that would be dependent on both how he and the team play. Malkin scored 16 goals and 50 points in 68 games this past season. Letang is signed through 2028.
Another name to watch this season will be Bryan Rust, Crosby’s winger on the top line. Rust is signed through the next three seasons. The 33-year-old is happy in Pittsburgh and wants to stay. However, he doesn’t have trade protection. If the Penguins get a good enough offer — a package that could accelerate the rebuild — Rust could be traded away just like Jake Guentzel two years ago.
It’s not just friendships on the ice for Crosby that tie him to Pittsburgh: it’s relationships with the community.
“We have the children’s hospital visit that we do once a year with the entire team. There’s tons of cameras,” Letang said. “But he’s also going to go see patients in a different hospital and that’s completely off radar. And, you know, I was a witness because he asked me to come with him one year and see what he was doing.”
Youth hockey in Pittsburgh has exploded since Crosby’s arrival. The Little Penguins Learn to Play program Crosby launched in 2008 has introduced thousands of kids to the sport. Crosby and the city are in a long-term relationship that truly has benefitted them both.
“I still remember my first day going there, getting to the airport, coming down the escalators, and just it was packed,” Crosby said. “To have that kind of welcoming, and then just, right from arriving at the rink to living with Mario, just so many amazing first impressions, but then great memories since. It’s been a long time I’ve been there, and I couldn’t be more grateful that it worked out the way it has and that I was drafted there.”
Those close to Crosby say the distinction of wearing only one jersey is something he strongly considers. When Los Angeles Kings captain Anze Kopitar announced his retirement after this season, he noted playing his entire career in one city was a major point of pride for him.
However, there’s a counterpoint: Tom Brady. His reputation in New England is still as its all-time franchise legend. But after 20 years, he signed with the Buccaneers and was able to finish out his career with another championship there, too.
So, it comes down to the question: What motivates Crosby at this point?
“As you play, if you still have the passion, I think you find different things that motivate you,” Crosby said. “This year is obviously an Olympic year, so you know, that’s a big motivation. But as far as just in general, I think the motivation is just to be my best. You know, whatever that is, you know, regardless of age and expectations, all that. I always just try to be my best, and that’s enough for me.”
Malkin took it a step further.
“I think he mentally wants to show every year he can play 100%,” Malkin said. “And mentality, like, maybe one more cup, you know? We want to win together again. Because last cup, like, 10 years ago.”
In fact, it has only been eight years since the Penguins last won. But for an all-time great, that can feel like forever.
The SEC is eating up half the spots in the latest College Football Playoff top 12 projection — and Texas isn’t even taking up one of them.
The Longhorns are out following their loss to Florida in the Swamp. Penn State is out following an embarrassing loss at once-winless UCLA. Florida State is out after a second loss, this time to rival Miami.
Which means new teams can get in.
Below you’ll find one team in the spotlight for each of the Power 4 leagues and another identified as an enigma. We’ve also tiered schools into four groups. Teams with Would be in status are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking would look like if it were released today. Teams listed as On the cusp are the true bubble teams and the first ones outside the bracket. A team with Work to do is passing the eye test (for the most part) and has a chance at winning its conference, which means a guaranteed spot in the playoff. And a team that Would be out is playing in the shadows of the playoff — for now.
The 13-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies plus what each team has done to date.
Reminder: This will change week-to-week as each team builds — or busts — its résumé.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Spotlight: LSU. The Tigers came back into the conversation this week, in part because Penn State tumbled out and opened a spot. They ranked No. 12 in our projection. If the playoff were today, though, the committee’s No. 12 team would get knocked out of the field during the seeding process to make room for the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If LSU is going to truly legitimize itself in the playoff race, it has to move up into a top-10 spot, which is the safest place to be. That’s not going to be easy, considering LSU has the 10th-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. The metrics give LSU the 10th-best chance in the SEC to reach the conference championship game (4.4%). Saturday’s game against South Carolina is critical because the next three opponents (No. 20 Vandy, No. 5 Texas A&M and No. 8 Alabama) are ranked, and two of the three games are on the road. If LSU is going to be a factor in the postseason, it has to improve its running game and its big-play capabilities. The run game ranks 119th in the country with 104.8 yards per game, and LSU is No. 103 in plays over 20 yards (18).
The enigma: Missouri. We’ll learn more about the undefeated Tigers on Saturday when they host Alabama, but as of right now, their best wins are against Kansas and South Carolina. They’ve got the No. 3 running game in the country (292 yards per game), and lead the country in third-down conversion percentage (61.6%). Defensively, they’re fundamentally sound, leading the country with only 20 missed tackles. Can they maintain this success against a ranked opponent? The Tigers have the seventh-most-difficult remaining schedule, according to ESPN Analytics. They’re about to enter their season-defining stretch, and they had a bye week to prepare for the Tide. After that, it’s back-to-back road trips to Auburn and Vandy. This month will determine how seriously to take Mizzou.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M
On the cusp: LSU
Work to do: Missouri, Vanderbilt
Would be out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas
Big Ten
Spotlight: Michigan. The Wolverines have won three straight games since the Week 2 road loss at Oklahoma, and they’re growing along with freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood. According to ESPN Analytics, Michigan currently has the fourth-best chance to reach the Big Ten title game (22.5%) behind Ohio State, Oregon and Indiana, but the latter two play each other Saturday. If Michigan can win at USC on Saturday, the picture begins to change, but ESPN’s FPI gives USC a 68.5% chance to win. If Michigan loses, it would be in a must-win situation against rival Ohio State in the regular-season finale to avoid a third loss and have a chance at an at-large bid. (That is assuming, of course, that Michigan doesn’t stumble along the way to sneaky good teams such as Washington and Maryland.) The Wolverines have one of the nation’s top rushing offenses and defenses heading into USC. Speaking of the Trojans …
The enigma: USC. Can the Trojans play four quarters against a ranked opponent? USC was undefeated heading into Illinois on Sept. 27, and couldn’t finish in a 34-32 loss. They get the Wolverines at home before heading to rival Notre Dame on Oct. 18. A win against Michigan would give USC a much-needed cushion, considering its two toughest remaining games — Notre Dame and Nov. 22 at Oregon — are on the road. USC’s defense has allowed at least 30 points in each of the past two games. The selection committee won’t penalize USC for a close road loss to a decent Illinois team, but it will be looking for statement wins, and right now the Trojans don’t have one.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
On the cusp: Michigan
Work to do: Illinois, Maryland, Nebraska, USC, Washington
Would be out: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
ACC
Spotlight: Georgia Tech. The undefeated Yellow Jackets are one missed call from being in the “work to do” category below. Officials missed a critical offsides penalty Sept. 27 at Wake Forest, helping Georgia Tech drive down the field for a game-tying field goal before winning in overtime. The selection committee members will know this situation and consider it during their discussions. The Jackets are here because of their realistic chance to reach the ACC title game — not their résumé, which doesn’t include any wins against ranked opponents, and that might continue, as none of their remaining ACC opponents is currently ranked. Rival Georgia will be Georgia Tech’s best chance to impress the selection committee for an at-large bid if the Jackets don’t win the ACC. They’re good enough, though, to be undefeated heading into the Georgia game, which could make things interesting. Right now ESPN’s FPI projects the Jackets to win each remaining game except against Duke and Georgia. That’s why ESPN Analytics is showing Georgia Tech has the fourth-best chance (18.6%) in the league to reach the ACC title game behind Miami, Duke and Virginia. If Georgia Tech doesn’t lock up a spot as the ACC champ, the committee will have a significant debate about the Jackets as a two-loss ACC runner-up (loss in ACC title game and to Georgia) with no statement wins.
The enigma: Virginia. First the Cavaliers caught the nation’s attention with the Friday night spotlight win against Florida State, and then they eked out an overtime road win against Louisville. Now they’ve got the third-best chance to reach the ACC title game (45.3%), according to ESPN Analytics. That’s because ESPN’s FPI projects Virginia to lose at Duke on Nov. 15, its toughest remaining game. Virginia is similar to Georgia Tech in that it’s unlikely to face any ranked conference opponents the rest of the season, but it doesn’t have a big-time nonconference opponent to help compensate for that. So if the Hoos don’t win the ACC, that Week 2 loss at NC State could come back to haunt them as a two-loss conference runner-up. Virginia fans should be cheering for FSU to run the table because the more the Noles win, the better that Sept. 26 win against them looks.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Miami
On the cusp: Georgia Tech
Work to do: Virginia
Would be out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Big 12
Spotlight: BYU. The undefeated Cougars are here because they’re on a collision course with Texas Tech to play for the Big 12 title. According to ESPN Analytics, BYU has the second-best chance to reach the Big 12 championship game (43%) behind the Red Raiders (67.3%). This will get settled on the field before then, as those teams play each other Nov. 8 at Texas Tech. It’s currently the only game on the Cougars’ schedule that ESPN’s FPI gives them less than a 50% chance to win. Even if BYU loses that game, if it’s the Cougars’ only loss, they could face Texas Tech again in the league championship. BYU would lock up a spot with the Big 12 title, but two losses to the Red Raiders would likely knock them out as the conference runner-up. That depends, though, on how many Big 12 opponents are ranked by the selection committee.
The enigma: Arizona State. The close road loss to a much-improved Mississippi State team isn’t as bad as it might have seemed (though the Bulldogs have had a dose of reality with back-to-back losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M). The Sun Devils have won three straight games since that Sept. 6 loss, knocking off Baylor and TCU to reposition themselves near the top of the Big 12 standings again. The question is whether the defending conference champs are good enough to repeat. The season-defining stretch begins Saturday at Utah, followed by home games against Texas Tech and Houston before heading to Iowa State ahead of the first CFP ranking Nov. 4. ESPN’s FPI projects ASU will lose three of those next four.
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Texas Tech
On the cusp: BYU
Work to do: Arizona, Arizona State, Cincinnati, Houston, Iowa State, TCU, Utah
Would be out: Baylor, Colorado, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, UCF, West Virginia
Independent
Would be out: Notre Dame. The Irish have a case to be the selection committee’s top two-loss team, and they’re doing everything right to make the slow climb back into the conversation. No team in the country has a better chance to win out than Notre Dame (42.2%), according to ESPN Analytics. One of the biggest criticisms of the Irish in their back-to-back season-opening losses was the defense, which had allowed Texas A&M 41 points, but Notre Dame hasn’t allowed more than 13 in each of its past two wins. Notre Dame’s toughest remaining game will be on Oct. 18 against rival USC, but the Irish get the Trojans at home. If Notre Dame can finish 10-2 it won’t be a lock, but its playoff chances will skyrocket.
Group of 5
Spotlight: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn the No. 12 seed at LSU’s expense. The undefeated (Memphis) Tigers have a win against a beleaguered Arkansas team that’s helping push their strength of record to No. 18 in the country — a slight edge over No. 19 South Florida, but all of the other Group of 5 contenders aren’t far behind. This will settle itself on the field, as Memphis plays South Florida on Oct. 25, Tulane on Nov. 7 and Navy on Nov. 27. Memphis still has the best chance to win the American (45.9%), according to ESPN Analytics. The Tigers also have the best chance of any Group of 5 team to reach the CFP (38.4%).
The enigma: UNLV. The Rebels are undefeated and have done something Penn State could not — beat UCLA. UNLV has the edge against Boise State following the Broncos’ second loss in Week 6, but those two teams will face each other Oct. 18 at Boise State. They’re also projected to meet again in the Mountain West Conference title game. Boise State (45.1%) still has the best chance to win the league, with UNLV (33.8%) a close second. According to ESPN Analytics, UNLV has the fifth-best chance to reach the CFP (9.5%).
If the playoff were today
Would be in: Memphis
Work to do: Navy, North Texas, Old Dominion, South Florida, Tulane, UNLV
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Oregon
No. 4 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Ole Miss
No. 11 Tennessee at No. 6 Alabama
No. 10 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Indiana at No. 8 Georgia
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Tennessee/No. 6 Alabama winner vs. No. 3 Oregon
No. 10 Texas Tech/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Indiana/No. 8 Georgia winner vs. No. 1 Miami
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