Rishi Sunak vs Keir Starmer: How do they measure up in the eyes of voters?

Published

2 years ago

October 24, 2022

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The mood music in Westminster is that Rishi Sunak will win the Tory leadership contest and become the next prime minister of the UK.

This could be the right decision for the Conservative Party, if the most recent YouGov poll is to be believed.

Released just this morning it says voters familiar with all three candidates favour the former chancellor over Penny Mordaunt, who remains in the race, and Boris Johnson, who dropped out late last night.

But there are two stings in the tail for Mr Sunak and his colleagues.

Sunak tight-lipped as he arrives in Westminster – live updates

Firstly, it would be fairer to describe him as the least unpopular candidate.

While 36% of those surveyed said they had a “favourable” opinion of him – compared to 34% for Ms Mordaunt and 30% for Mr Johnson – 64% said they had an “unfavourable” one – slightly lower than the 67% and 70% for the Commons leader and ex-prime minister.

Secondly, his net favourability of -28 still trails behind Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who with the same group of voters is only at -12.

In fact, another poll released yesterday by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed it would be a much closer contest between Sir Keir and Mr Johnson.

Asked who would be the better prime minister, 42% favoured the Labour leader compared to 39% for the former prime minister.

The gap widened between Sir Keir and Mr Sunak – 44% to 33% – and widened further still between him and Ms Mordaunt – 49% to 22%.

The former chancellor took a stronger lead over the Labour leader when it was just 2019 Conservative voters surveyed, with 58% saying he’d make a better prime minister to Sir Keir’s 25%.

But Mr Johnson was even further ahead among this group, with 69% saying he would be the superior choice over 19% for Sir Keir.

There was a similar conclusion from YouGov’s polling on Friday.

Mr Sunak came out on top of the three candidates who were then expected to enter Tory leadership race – with 43% saying he would do a good job, compared to 34% for Mr Johnson and 26% for Ms Mordaunt.

And he was the only candidate whose percentage for doing a good job was higher than those who thought they would do a bad job – 40% for Mr Sunak, 56% for Mr Johnson and 35% for Ms Mordaunt.

But yet again, the public preferred the Labour leader to all three, with 43% choosing him over the former chancellor, who got the backing of 34%.

Numerous polls taken during the chaos of the last few weeks have put Labour on eye-watering leads over the Conservatives, with the highest claiming they were 36 points ahead – unheard of since the days of Tony Blair.

So some Tories are understandably worried about the steep hill the party has to climb to win back voters before the next election comes around.

Writing in the Times, former chancellor Sajid Javid said the long-term consequences of a Labour victory would be “disastrous”, adding: “We know that support for proportional representation, a lower voting age of sixteen, and changes to rules on political donations is deep-rooted within Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

“We would be left in the political wilderness for years under a series of coalition governments.”

Mr Javid believes Mr Sunak is the right man to “provide the leadership that we desperately need”, but he said it would be up to MPs and members to “set aside their differences and look to the future”.

“If we cannot do that, and unite behind Rishi, the party as we know it will be on the cusp of an extinction-level event.”

But what wider direction should Mr Sunak take to get the public back onside?

According to the Conservative think tank Onward, it is about breaking away from so-called Trussonomics and moving back to the centre ground on the economy to win back the voters they have lost.

According to its research, those who have moved away from the Tories since 2019 lean to the left on economic policy, with strong support for the state intervening to tackle low pay and rising inequality, and for tax and spend, especially when it comes to taking from large businesses to fund the likes of the NHS.

Meanwhile, tax cuts are only popular in 15% of constituencies across the country, and culture war issues around being “woke” or gender identities are not a priority.

“Liz Truss misunderstood Britain,” said Onward’s chief data analyst James Blagden. “The next prime minister cannot make the same mistake.”

He said it may be “unpalatable” to some in the party, but voters care about well-funded public services and stagnating wages “rather than waiting for growth to trickle down”, and they want the government to “proactively reduce the gap between rich and poor”.

Mr Blagden added: “The result of the last leadership election and the libertarian experiment that followed brought the Conservative Party close to oblivion.

“If MPs and members hope to survive as a serious fighting force then they cannot make this mistake again. They need to listen to the electorate.”

UK

Teenage girl killed on M5 in Somerset after getting out of police car named

Published

4 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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Teenage girl killed on M5 in Somerset after getting out of police car named

A teenage girl who was killed after getting out of a police car on the M5 in Somerset has been named.

Tamzin Hall, 17 and from Wellington, was hit by a vehicle that was travelling southbound between junction 24 for Bridgwater and junction 25 for Taunton shortly after 11pm on Monday.

She had exited a police vehicle that had stopped on the northbound side of the motorway while transporting her.

A mandatory referral was made to the Independent Office for Police Conduct, which is now carrying out its own investigation into what happened.

Avon and Somerset Police said: “Our thoughts and sympathies go out to Tamzin’s family for their devastating loss.

“A specially-trained family liaison officer remains in contact with them to keep them updated and to provide support.

“The family have asked for privacy at this difficult time.”

The police watchdog, the IOPC, has been asked to investigate.

In a statement, director David Ford, said: “This was a truly tragic incident and my thoughts are with Tamzin’s family and friends and everyone affected by the events of that evening.

“We are contacting her family to express our sympathies, explain our role, and set out how our investigation will progress. We will keep them fully updated as our investigation continues.”

Paramedics attended the motorway within minutes of the girl being hit but she was pronounced dead at the scene.

The motorway was closed in both directions while investigations took place. It was fully reopened shortly after 11am on Tuesday, Nationals Highways said.

UK

Mohamed al Fayed’s brother Salah also abused women, say female Harrods employees

Published

4 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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Mohamed al Fayed's brother Salah also abused women, say female Harrods employees

A survivors group advocating for women allegedly assaulted by Mohamed al Fayed has said it is “grateful another abuser has been unmasked”, after allegations his brother Salah also participated in the abuse.

Justice for Harrods Survivors says it has “credible evidence” suggesting the sexual abuse allegedly perpetrated at Harrods and the billionaire’s properties “was not limited to Mr al Fayed himself”.

The group’s statement comes after three women told BBC News they were sexually assaulted by al Fayed’s brother, Salah.

One woman said she was raped by Mohamed al Fayed while working at Harrods.

Helen, who has waived her right to anonymity, said she then took a job working for his brother as an escape. She alleges she was drugged and sexually assaulted while working at Salah’s home on Park Lane, London.

Two other women have told the BBC they were taken to Monaco and the South of France, where Salah sexually abused them.

The Justice for Harrod Survivors representatives said: “We are proud to support the survivors of Salah Fayed’s abuse and are committed to achieving justice for them, no matter what it takes.”

The group added it “looks forward to the others on whom we have credible evidence – whether abusers themselves or enablers facilitating that abuse – being exposed in due course”.

Salah was one of the three Fayed brothers who co-owned Harrods.

The business, which was sold to Qatar Holdings when Mohamed al Fayed retired in 2010, has said it “supports the bravery of these women in coming forward”.

A statement issued by the famous store on Thursday evening continued: “We encourage these survivors to come forward and make their claims to the Harrods scheme, where they can apply for compensation, as well as support from a counselling perspective and through an independent survivor advocate.

“We also hope that they are looking at every appropriate avenue to them in their pursuit of justice, whether that be Harrods, the police or the Fayed family and estate.”

The Justice for Harrods Survivors group previously said more than 400 people had contacted them regarding accusations about Mohamed al Fayed, who died last year.

One of those alleged to have been abused is Bianca Gascoigne, the daughter of former England player Paul.

Speaking to Sky News in October, Gascoigne said she was groomed and sexually assaulted by al Fayed when she worked at Harrods as a teenager.

UK

Wes Streeting ‘crossed the line’ by opposing assisted dying in public, says Labour peer Harriet Harman

Published

4 hours ago

November 15, 2024

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Wes Streeting 'crossed the line' by opposing assisted dying in public, says Labour peer Harriet Harman

Wes Streeting “crossed the line” by opposing assisted dying in public and the argument shouldn’t “come down to resources”, a Labour peer has said.

Speaking on Sky News’ Electoral Dysfunction podcast, Baroness Harriet Harman criticised the health secretary for revealing how he is going to vote on the matter when it comes before parliament later this month.

MPs are being given a free vote, meaning they can side with their conscience and not party lines, so the government is supposed to be staying neutral.

But Mr Streeting has made clear he will vote against legalising assisted dying, citing concerns end-of-life care is not good enough for people to make an informed choice, and that some could feel pressured into the decision to save the NHS money.

He has also ordered a review into the potential costs of changing the law, warning it could come at the expense of other NHS services if implemented.

Baroness Harman said Mr Streeting has “crossed the line in two ways”.

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“He should not have said how he was going to vote, because that breaches neutrality and sends a signal,” she said.

“And secondly… he’s said the problem is that it will cost money to bring in an assisted dying measure, and therefore he will have to cut other services.

“But paradoxically, he also said it would be a slippery slope because people will be forced to bring about their own death in order to save the NHS money. Well, it can’t be doing both things.

“It can’t be both costing the NHS money and saving the NHS money.”

Baroness Harman said the argument “should not come down to resources” as it is a “huge moral issue” affecting “only a tiny number of people”.

She added that people should not mistake Mr Streeting for being “a kind of proxy for Keir Starmer”.

“The government is genuinely neutral and all of those backbenchers, they can vote whichever way they want,” she added.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has previously expressed support for assisted dying, but it is not clear how he intends to vote on the issue or if he will make his decision public ahead of time.

The cabinet has varying views on the topic, with the likes of Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood siding with Mr Streeting in her opposition but Energy Secretary Ed Miliband being for it.

The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill is being championed by Labour backbencher Kim Leadbeater, who wants to give people with six months left to live the choice to end their lives.

Under her proposals, two independent doctors must confirm a patient is eligible for assisted dying and a High Court judge must give their approval.

The bill will also include punishments of up to 14 years in prison for those who break the law, including coercing someone into ending their own life.

MPs will debate and vote on the legislation on 29 November, in what will be the first Commons vote on assisted dying since 2015, when the proposal was defeated.