Rishi Sunak vs Keir Starmer: How do they measure up in the eyes of voters?
After a swift leadership race, Rishi Sunak has won the contest to take over the Tory Party and become the next prime minister of the UK.
And it could be the right decision for the Conservative Party, if the most recent YouGov poll is to be believed.
Released just this morning it says voters familiar with all three candidates favour the former chancellor over Penny Mordaunt, who remains in the race, and Boris Johnson, who dropped out late last night.
But there are two stings in the tail for Mr Sunak and his colleagues.
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Firstly, it would be fairer to describe him as the least unpopular candidate.
While 36% of those surveyed said they had a “favourable” opinion of him – compared to 34% for Ms Mordaunt and 30% for Mr Johnson – 64% said they had an “unfavourable” one – slightly lower than the 67% and 70% for the Commons leader and ex-prime minister.
Secondly, his net favourability of -28 still trails behind Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who with the same group of voters is only at -12.
In fact, another poll released yesterday by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed it would be a much closer contest between Sir Keir and Mr Johnson.
Asked who would be the better prime minister, 42% favoured the Labour leader compared to 39% for the former prime minister.
The gap widened between Sir Keir and Mr Sunak – 44% to 33% – and widened further still between him and Ms Mordaunt – 49% to 22%.
The new Tory chief took a stronger lead over the Labour leader when it was just 2019 Conservative voters surveyed, with 58% saying he’d make a better prime minister to Sir Keir’s 25%.
But Mr Johnson was even further ahead among this group, with 69% saying he would be the superior choice over 19% for Sir Keir.
There was a similar conclusion from YouGov’s polling on Friday.
Mr Sunak came out on top of the three candidates who were then expected to enter Tory leadership race – with 43% saying he would do a good job, compared to 34% for Mr Johnson and 26% for Ms Mordaunt.
And he was the only candidate whose percentage for doing a good job was higher than those who thought they would do a bad job – 40% for Mr Sunak, 56% for Mr Johnson and 35% for Ms Mordaunt.
But yet again, the public preferred the Labour leader to all three, with 43% choosing him over the former chancellor, who got the backing of 34%.
Numerous polls taken during the chaos of the last few weeks have put Labour on eye-watering leads over the Conservatives, with the highest claiming they were 36 points ahead – unheard of since the days of Tony Blair.
So some Tories are understandably worried about the steep hill the party has to climb to win back voters before the next election comes around.
Writing in the Times, former chancellor Sajid Javid said the long-term consequences of a Labour victory would be “disastrous”, adding: “We know that support for proportional representation, a lower voting age of sixteen, and changes to rules on political donations is deep-rooted within Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.
“We would be left in the political wilderness for years under a series of coalition governments.”
Sajid Javid issued a warning to his party to unite behind the new leader
Mr Javid believes Mr Sunak is the right man to “provide the leadership that we desperately need”, but he said it would be up to MPs and members to “set aside their differences and look to the future”.
“If we cannot do that, and unite behind Rishi, the party as we know it will be on the cusp of an extinction-level event.”
But what wider direction should Mr Sunak take to get the public back onside?
According to the Conservative think tank Onward, it is about breaking away from so-called Trussonomics and moving back to the centre ground on the economy to win back the voters they have lost.
According to its research, those who have moved away from the Tories since 2019 lean to the left on economic policy, with strong support for the state intervening to tackle low pay and rising inequality, and for tax and spend, especially when it comes to taking from large businesses to fund the likes of the NHS.
Meanwhile, tax cuts are only popular in 15% of constituencies across the country, and culture war issues around being “woke” or gender identities are not a priority.
“Liz Truss misunderstood Britain,” said Onward’s chief data analyst James Blagden. “The next prime minister cannot make the same mistake.”
He said it may be “unpalatable” to some in the party, but voters care about well-funded public services and stagnating wages “rather than waiting for growth to trickle down”, and they want the government to “proactively reduce the gap between rich and poor”.
Mr Blagden added: “The result of the last leadership election and the libertarian experiment that followed brought the Conservative Party close to oblivion.
“If MPs and members hope to survive as a serious fighting force then they cannot make this mistake again. They need to listen to the electorate.”
Canadians “weren’t impressed” by the decision of the UK government to offer Donald Trump an unprecedented second state visit to the UK, the country’s prime minister has told Sky News.
Sir Keir Starmer handed the invitation to the US president during a visit to the Oval Office.
The newly elected Liberal leader Mark Carney said that the invitation “cut across clear messages” that the Canadian government was trying to send to the White House in response to their threats against Canada’s sovereignty.
“I think, to be frank, they [Canadians] weren’t impressed by that gesture… given the circumstance. It was at a time when we were being quite clear about the issues around sovereignty.”
Explained: Who is Mark Carney?
Mark Carney speaking to Sky News’ Sam Washington
It comes as the Canadian prime minister has invited the King, who is Canada’s head of state, to open its parliament later this month in a “clear message of sovereignty”.
It is the first time the sovereign has carried out this function in nearly 50 years and Mr Carney says it’s “not coincidental”.
“All issues around Canada’s sovereignty have been accentuated by the president. So no, it’s not coincidental, but it is also a reaffirming moment for Canadians.”
The former Bank of England governor was re-elected after a campaign fought on the promise of standing up to American threats to Canadian statehood. He had refused to speak to Mr Trump until Canadian sovereignty was respected.
It followed Mr Trump threatening to make Canada the 51st state of the US.
Mr Carney justified making his first trip after winning re-election to the White House by stating Mr Trump had changed his intentions to annex Canada from an “expectation to a desire”.
“He was expressing a desire. He’d shifted from the expectation to a desire. He was also coming from a place where he recognised that that wasn’t going to happen.
“Does he still muse about it? Perhaps. Is it ever going to happen? No. Never.”
The high-stakes meeting in the Oval Office was not confrontational, with Mr Carney praising the president’s approach as “very on top of the essence of a wide range of issues” and “able to identify the points of maximum leverage, both in a specific situation but also in a geopolitical situation”.
A King’s tension between allies
Fractured geopolitical relations have produced an interesting phenomenon: two Commonwealth nations both deploying their head of state, King Charles, to manage the vagaries of Donald Trump.
For Canada, and its new prime minister, Mark Carney, the King is being unveiled at the opening of Parliament in Ottawa later this month as an unequivocal spectacle and symbol of sovereignty.
For the UK, Sir Keir Starmer is positioning the monarch as a bridge and has proffered a personal invitation from King Charles to the president for an unprecedented second state visit in order to facilitate negotiations over trade and tariffs.
This instrumentalisation of the crown, which ordinarily transcends politics, has created tension between the historically close allies.
Canadians view the UK’s red carpet treatment of a leader who is openly threatening their sovereignty as a violation of Commonwealth solidarity, while the British seem to have no compunction in engaging in high-level realpolitik.
The episode is emblematic of how pervasive disruptive American influence is and how extreme measures taken to combat it can aggravate even the most enduring alliances.
Since the meeting, tensions between the two countries have abated.
Further negotiations on trade and security are expected soon.
Given the deep economic integration of the two nations, neither side expects a deal imminently, but both sides concur that constructive talks have led to progress on an agreement.
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With greater goodwill between the two North American neighbours, Mr Carney also expressed optimism about Mr Trump’s efforts to broker peace between Ukraine and Russia.
The prime minister confirmed his view that the president was an “honest broker” and that his counterpart had been “helpful” in bringing momentum to a 30-day ceasefire between the warring nations.
Despite a reset in relations between the United States and Canada, Mr Carney remained circumspect.
His motto is: “Always plan for the worst.”
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And to that end, nothing is being taken for granted: “We do plan for having no deal, we do plan for trouble in the security relationship. We do plan for the global trading system not being reassembled: that’s the way to approach this president.”
World
‘Sixteen killed’ in strike on Gaza hospital as Israel says it hit ‘Hamas command centre below’
At least 16 people have been killed and 70 others were injured at a hospital in Gaza following an Israeli strike, according to the health ministry.
Nine missiles hit the European Hospital and its courtyard in the south of the Palestinian territory, officials said.
Israel said it had hit a “Hamas command centre” beneath the hospital in Khan Younis.
Hamas denies exploiting hospitals and civilian properties for military purposes.
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The scene after the European Hospital was partially damaged following Israeli airstrikes. Pic: Reuters
Earlier, a well-known Palestinian photojournalist died following a separate attack on the Nasser Hospital, also in Khan Younis, said the ministry.
Hassan Aslih had been accused by Israel of working with Hamas and was recovering from an earlier airstrike.
Aslih, who has hundreds of thousands of followers on social media, was said by the Israelis to have recorded and uploaded footage of “looting, arson and murder” during Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack into Israel that triggered the war in Gaza.
Aslih was one of two patients who died in Tuesday’s strike on Nasser Hospital, said the health ministry. Several others were wounded.
Mourners carry the body of Palestinian journalist Hassan Aslih. Pic: Reuters
Dozens of people were being treated on the third floor of the hospital building, where the missiles struck, Reuters said, quoting Ahmed Siyyam, a member of Gaza’s emergency services.
The Israeli military said it “eliminated significant Hamas terrorists” in Nasser Hospital, among them Aslih, who it said had “operated under the guise of a journalist”.
Footage showed heavy damage to one of the hospital buildings, including to medical equipment and beds inside.
At least 160 journalists and media workers have been killed in Gaza since the start of the war, according to the International Federation of Journalists.
Gazan officials accuse Israel of deliberately targeting journalists. Israel denies this and says it tries to avoid harm to civilians.
Aslih, who headed the Alam24 news outlet and had previously worked with Western news outlets, was recovering after being wounded last month in a deadly strike on a tent in the Nasser Hospital compound.
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Meanwhile, President Trump has spoken on the phone to Edan Alexander after he was released by Hamas on Monday, as part of ongoing efforts to achieve a permanent ceasefire with Israel.
The 21-year-old was believed to be the last living American hostage in Gaza.
Some 1,200 people were killed and 251 taken hostage in the 7 October attack on southern Israel, according to Israeli figures.
Israel’s response has killed more than 52,000 Palestinians, according to local health officials, and destroyed much of the coastal territory. Gaza’s health ministry records do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
An aid blockade since March has left the population at critical risk of famine, according to the World Health Organisation, which warned on Tuesday that hunger and malnutrition could have a lasting impact on “an entire generation”.
Donald Trump has said the US will lift long-standing sanctions on Syria and signed a $600bn (£450bn) deal with Saudi Arabia as he visited the nation as part of a tour of the Middle East.
The US president revealed the US plans to lift sanctions on Syria following talks with Saudi Arabia‘s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
Mr Trump was speaking at the US-Saudi investment conference during a four-day trip to the region.
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The comments follow Air Force One being escorted by Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s as it approached the kingdom’s capital, with Mr Trump welcomed by the crown prince, Saudi’s de facto ruler, as he stepped off the plane.
President Trump said the relationship between the were nations were “stronger and more powerful than ever before”, adding it would “remain that way”.
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How Trump’s Saudi visit unfolded
‘Largest defence cooperation agreement’
Mr Trump and Prince Mohammed signed several agreements aimed at increasing cooperation between their governments, including a commitment to $600bn in new Saudi investment in the US – though Mr Trump said a trillion dollars (£750bn) would be even better.
The US also agreed to sell Saudi Arabia an arms package worth nearly $142bn (£107bn), which the White House called “the largest defence cooperation agreement” Washington has ever done.
Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s provide an honorary escort for Air Force One. Pic: AP
In his speech, President Trump also urged Iran to take a “new and a much better path” and make a new nuclear deal with the US.
Speaking at the conference, Mr Trump said he wants to avoid a conflict with Iran but warned of “maximum pressure” if his olive branch was rejected.
Pic: AP
“As I have shown repeatedly, I am willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world, even if our differences may be profound,” he said.
“If Iran’s leadership rejects this olive branch… we will have no choice but to inflict massive maximum pressure, drive Iranian oil exports to zero.”
He added: “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon. But with that said, Iran can have a much brighter future, but we’ll never allow America and its allies to be threatened with terrorism or nuclear attack. The choice is theirs to make.”
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Pic: Reuters
Normalising relations with Syria
Mr Trump said he would ease US sanctions on Syria and move to normalise relations with its new government ahead of a meeting with its new leader Ahmad al Sharaa on Wednesday.
The Syrian president was formerly an insurgent who led the overthrow of former leader Bashar al Assad last year.
Mr Trump said he wants to give the country “a chance at peace” and added: “There is a new government that will hopefully succeed. I say good luck, Syria. Show us something special.”
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The US leader also said he hoped Saudi Arabia would soon join the Abraham Accords and recognise Israel “in your own time”.
Saudi Arabia has argued its recognition of Israel would be tied to the establishment of a Palestinian state along the lines of Israel’s 1967 borders.
Mr Trump will travel to Qatar and the United Arab Emirates over the next three days.
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