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After a swift leadership race, Rishi Sunak has won the contest to take over the Tory Party and become the next prime minister of the UK.

And it could be the right decision for the Conservative Party, if the most recent YouGov poll is to be believed.

Released just this morning it says voters familiar with all three candidates favour the former chancellor over Penny Mordaunt, who remains in the race, and Boris Johnson, who dropped out late last night.

But there are two stings in the tail for Mr Sunak and his colleagues.

Sunak tight-lipped as he arrives in Westminster – live updates

Firstly, it would be fairer to describe him as the least unpopular candidate.

While 36% of those surveyed said they had a “favourable” opinion of him – compared to 34% for Ms Mordaunt and 30% for Mr Johnson – 64% said they had an “unfavourable” one – slightly lower than the 67% and 70% for the Commons leader and ex-prime minister.

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Secondly, his net favourability of -28 still trails behind Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who with the same group of voters is only at -12.

In fact, another poll released yesterday by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed it would be a much closer contest between Sir Keir and Mr Johnson.

Asked who would be the better prime minister, 42% favoured the Labour leader compared to 39% for the former prime minister.

The gap widened between Sir Keir and Mr Sunak – 44% to 33% – and widened further still between him and Ms Mordaunt – 49% to 22%.

Redfield & Wilton

The new Tory chief took a stronger lead over the Labour leader when it was just 2019 Conservative voters surveyed, with 58% saying he’d make a better prime minister to Sir Keir’s 25%.

But Mr Johnson was even further ahead among this group, with 69% saying he would be the superior choice over 19% for Sir Keir.

There was a similar conclusion from YouGov’s polling on Friday.

Mr Sunak came out on top of the three candidates who were then expected to enter Tory leadership race – with 43% saying he would do a good job, compared to 34% for Mr Johnson and 26% for Ms Mordaunt.

And he was the only candidate whose percentage for doing a good job was higher than those who thought they would do a bad job – 40% for Mr Sunak, 56% for Mr Johnson and 35% for Ms Mordaunt.

But yet again, the public preferred the Labour leader to all three, with 43% choosing him over the former chancellor, who got the backing of 34%.

YouGov

Numerous polls taken during the chaos of the last few weeks have put Labour on eye-watering leads over the Conservatives, with the highest claiming they were 36 points ahead – unheard of since the days of Tony Blair.

So some Tories are understandably worried about the steep hill the party has to climb to win back voters before the next election comes around.

Writing in the Times, former chancellor Sajid Javid said the long-term consequences of a Labour victory would be “disastrous”, adding: “We know that support for proportional representation, a lower voting age of sixteen, and changes to rules on political donations is deep-rooted within Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

“We would be left in the political wilderness for years under a series of coalition governments.”

Former Health Secretary Sajid Javid leaves his home in south west London following his resignation on Tuesday. Picture date: Wednesday July 6, 2022.
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Sajid Javid issued a warning to his party to unite behind the new leader

Mr Javid believes Mr Sunak is the right man to “provide the leadership that we desperately need”, but he said it would be up to MPs and members to “set aside their differences and look to the future”.

“If we cannot do that, and unite behind Rishi, the party as we know it will be on the cusp of an extinction-level event.”

But what wider direction should Mr Sunak take to get the public back onside?

According to the Conservative think tank Onward, it is about breaking away from so-called Trussonomics and moving back to the centre ground on the economy to win back the voters they have lost.

According to its research, those who have moved away from the Tories since 2019 lean to the left on economic policy, with strong support for the state intervening to tackle low pay and rising inequality, and for tax and spend, especially when it comes to taking from large businesses to fund the likes of the NHS.

Meanwhile, tax cuts are only popular in 15% of constituencies across the country, and culture war issues around being “woke” or gender identities are not a priority.

Onward survey

“Liz Truss misunderstood Britain,” said Onward’s chief data analyst James Blagden. “The next prime minister cannot make the same mistake.”

He said it may be “unpalatable” to some in the party, but voters care about well-funded public services and stagnating wages “rather than waiting for growth to trickle down”, and they want the government to “proactively reduce the gap between rich and poor”.

Mr Blagden added: “The result of the last leadership election and the libertarian experiment that followed brought the Conservative Party close to oblivion.

“If MPs and members hope to survive as a serious fighting force then they cannot make this mistake again. They need to listen to the electorate.”

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Two Chinese citizens captured during fighting in eastern Ukraine, Zelenskyy says

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Two Chinese citizens captured during fighting in eastern Ukraine, Zelenskyy says

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says two Chinese citizens have been captured while fighting in eastern Ukraine.

He said his forces had fought six Chinese soldiers and two of them had been taken prisoner. He added he had ordered officials to obtain an explanation from Beijing.

“We have information that there are many more Chinese citizens in the occupier’s units than just two. We are now finding out all the facts,” he added.

As it happened: Zelenskyy demands reaction from US

China is an ally of Russia and has been accused of helping its war in Ukraine, though Beijing has repeatedly denied allegations that it has supplied Kremlin forces with weapons.

“Russia’s involvement of China in this war in Europe, directly or indirectly, is a clear signal that Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” Mr Zelenskyy said. “He is looking for ways to continue the war.”

Mr Zelenskyy described China as having joined Russia’s war against Ukraine and said he expected the US to react.

There was no immediate comment from China.

How many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia?


John Sparks - Africa correspondent

John Sparks

International correspondent

@sparkomat

Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?

Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it? That would make the situation far more serious.

The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.

Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.

“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.

This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.

Read more from John Sparks

Fighters of various nationalities have joined Russia’s army during the war, often in return for promises of large sums of money. This does not represent official interventions by their home countries.

North Korea has also sent thousands of its troops to support Russia.

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‘This could be very, very embarrassing for China’

After Mr Zelenskyy’s announcement, the Ukrainian foreign minister said he had summoned China’s diplomat for an explanation, saying on social media the presence of Chinese citizens in Russia puts Beijing’s stance for peace into question.

Read more from Sky News:
Zelenskyy makes dig at US over response to Russian attack
Serious questions raised by captured Chinese national in Ukraine

Ukraine in Belgorod, almost out of Kursk

Last night, Mr Zelenskyy confirmed for the first time that Ukrainian forces are active in Russia’s Belgorod region.

He described the actions as “just”, adding: “war must return to where it came from”.

Meanwhile, regional governor Alexander Khinshtein said Russian forces are on the verge of reclaiming Kursk, months after Ukraine’s surprise incursion.

He claimed Russian forces had seized the settlement of Guyevo. Russian state news agency TASS said only two more settlements are left to recapture – Gornal and Oleshnya – to retake the entire region.

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What we learn from video of captured Chinese national in Ukraine – and the serious questions it raises

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What we learn from video of captured Chinese national in Ukraine - and the serious questions it raises

In a carefully written post on social media platform Telegram, Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused the Russian army of deploying Chinese citizens on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine.

What about the proof? Well, the Ukrainian president says his security services captured two people from China in the Donetsk region – along with identity documents, personal data and their bank cards.

Follow latest: Zelenskyy demands reaction from US

A video of a man in military fatigues who had been captured by Ukraine was pinned to the bottom of the statement.

We get snippets of a conversation where the alleged combatant seems to be talking about the events that led to his capture.

“When we arrived at the place… and then my commander.” The man gestures at the floor and ceiling, making shooting noises. “I was also injured.”

Volodymyr Zelenskyy uploaded  a video appearing to show a Chinese prisoner in Ukrainian custody.
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Volodymyr Zelenskyy uploaded a video appearing to show a Chinese citizen in military uniform in Ukrainian custody

These details will make it difficult for the Chinese government to deny the incident out of hand, although they are highly unlikely to supply additional information.

Important details like, who are they? What function(s) do they fulfil in Ukraine’s occupied territories?

Were they volunteers – or mercenaries – who had signed up to fight in the Russian army on their own?

Alternatively, does the Chinese government sanction their involvement – or even encourage it?

That would make the situation far more serious.

Read more:
Zelenskyy makes dig at US over response to Russian attack
What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war ramps up

The capture of these Chinese nationals in Donetsk begs another question – how many Chinese are actually fighting for Russia? In his post, Mr Zelenskyy said “there are many more Chinese citizens” other than these two.

Still, the Ukrainian president works hard to suggest the Chinese, officially at least, are blameless.

“Russia’s involvement of China in this war… is a clear signal that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is going to do anything but end the war,” he writes on Telegram.

This is a generous interpretation of China’s approach to the conflict, which is quite openly contradictory.

On one hand, Chinese President Xi Jinping describes China as a neutral party to the conflict, while simultaneously offering Mr Putin long-term political and economic support.

In fact, he described their partnership as a “no limits” one in a phone call with Mr Putin on the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Mr Zelenskyy then, is making a point with this post – but he does not want to make the situation any worse.

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What China could do next as Trump’s tariff war ramps up

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What China could do next as Trump's tariff war ramps up

The severity cannot be overstated, if an additional 50% tariffs are levied on all Chinese goods it will decimate trade between the world’s two biggest economies.

Remember, 50% would sit on top of what is already on the table: 34% announced last week, 20% announced at the start of US President Donald Trump’s term, and some additional tariffs left over from his first term in office.

In total, it means all Chinese goods would face tariffs of over 100%, some as high as 120%.

It’s a price that makes any trade almost impossible.

China is really the only nation in the world at the moment that is choosing to take a stand.

While others are publicly making concessions and sending delegations to negotiate, China has clearly calculated that not being seen to be bullied is worth the cost that retaliation will bring.

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Tariffs: Xi hits back at Trump

The real question, though, is if the US does indeed impose this extra 50% tomorrow, what could or would China do next?

It has said it will “fight to the end”, but what does that mean?

In reality, there are few good options.

There are some obvious measures that China will almost certainly enact.

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Further export controls on rare earth minerals (crucial for the development of high-tech products) are one example. China controls a huge proportion of the world’s supply, but the US would likely find workarounds in time.

Hiking tariffs on high-impact US products such as agricultural goods is another option, but there is only so far this could go.

The potentially more impactful options have significant drawbacks for Beijing.

It could, for instance, target high-profile American companies such as Apple and Tesla, but this isn’t ideal at a time when China is trying to attract more foreign investment, and some devaluation of the currency is possible, but it would also come with adverse effects.

Other options are more political and come with the risk of escalation beyond the economic arena.

In an opinion piece this morning, the editor of Xinhua, China’s state news agency, speculated that China could cease all cooperation with the US on the war against fentanyl.

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This has been a major political issue for Mr Trump, and it’s hard to see it would not constitute some sort of red line for him.

Other options touted include banning the import of American films, or perhaps calling for the Chinese public to boycott all American products.

Anything like this comes with a sense that the world’s two most powerful superpowers might be teetering on the edge of not just a total economic decoupling, but cultural separation too.

There is understandably serious nervousness about how that could spiral and the precedent it sets.

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