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The mood music in Westminster is that Rishi Sunak will win the Tory leadership contest and become the next prime minister of the UK.

This could be the right decision for the Conservative Party, if the most recent YouGov poll is to be believed.

Released just this morning it says voters familiar with all three candidates favour the former chancellor over Penny Mordaunt, who remains in the race, and Boris Johnson, who dropped out late last night.

But there are two stings in the tail for Mr Sunak and his colleagues.

Sunak tight-lipped as he arrives in Westminster – live updates

Firstly, it would be fairer to describe him as the least unpopular candidate.

While 36% of those surveyed said they had a “favourable” opinion of him – compared to 34% for Ms Mordaunt and 30% for Mr Johnson – 64% said they had an “unfavourable” one – slightly lower than the 67% and 70% for the Commons leader and ex-prime minister.

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Secondly, his net favourability of -28 still trails behind Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, who with the same group of voters is only at -12.

In fact, another poll released yesterday by Redfield and Wilton Strategies showed it would be a much closer contest between Sir Keir and Mr Johnson.

Asked who would be the better prime minister, 42% favoured the Labour leader compared to 39% for the former prime minister.

The gap widened between Sir Keir and Mr Sunak – 44% to 33% – and widened further still between him and Ms Mordaunt – 49% to 22%.

Redfield & Wilton

The former chancellor took a stronger lead over the Labour leader when it was just 2019 Conservative voters surveyed, with 58% saying he’d make a better prime minister to Sir Keir’s 25%.

But Mr Johnson was even further ahead among this group, with 69% saying he would be the superior choice over 19% for Sir Keir.

There was a similar conclusion from YouGov’s polling on Friday.

Mr Sunak came out on top of the three candidates who were then expected to enter Tory leadership race – with 43% saying he would do a good job, compared to 34% for Mr Johnson and 26% for Ms Mordaunt.

And he was the only candidate whose percentage for doing a good job was higher than those who thought they would do a bad job – 40% for Mr Sunak, 56% for Mr Johnson and 35% for Ms Mordaunt.

But yet again, the public preferred the Labour leader to all three, with 43% choosing him over the former chancellor, who got the backing of 34%.

YouGov

Numerous polls taken during the chaos of the last few weeks have put Labour on eye-watering leads over the Conservatives, with the highest claiming they were 36 points ahead – unheard of since the days of Tony Blair.

So some Tories are understandably worried about the steep hill the party has to climb to win back voters before the next election comes around.

Writing in the Times, former chancellor Sajid Javid said the long-term consequences of a Labour victory would be “disastrous”, adding: “We know that support for proportional representation, a lower voting age of sixteen, and changes to rules on political donations is deep-rooted within Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the SNP.

“We would be left in the political wilderness for years under a series of coalition governments.”

Former Health Secretary Sajid Javid leaves his home in south west London following his resignation on Tuesday. Picture date: Wednesday July 6, 2022.
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Sajid Javid issued a warning to his party to unite behind the new leader

Mr Javid believes Mr Sunak is the right man to “provide the leadership that we desperately need”, but he said it would be up to MPs and members to “set aside their differences and look to the future”.

“If we cannot do that, and unite behind Rishi, the party as we know it will be on the cusp of an extinction-level event.”

But what wider direction should Mr Sunak take to get the public back onside?

According to the Conservative think tank Onward, it is about breaking away from so-called Trussonomics and moving back to the centre ground on the economy to win back the voters they have lost.

According to its research, those who have moved away from the Tories since 2019 lean to the left on economic policy, with strong support for the state intervening to tackle low pay and rising inequality, and for tax and spend, especially when it comes to taking from large businesses to fund the likes of the NHS.

Meanwhile, tax cuts are only popular in 15% of constituencies across the country, and culture war issues around being “woke” or gender identities are not a priority.

Onward survey

“Liz Truss misunderstood Britain,” said Onward’s chief data analyst James Blagden. “The next prime minister cannot make the same mistake.”

He said it may be “unpalatable” to some in the party, but voters care about well-funded public services and stagnating wages “rather than waiting for growth to trickle down”, and they want the government to “proactively reduce the gap between rich and poor”.

Mr Blagden added: “The result of the last leadership election and the libertarian experiment that followed brought the Conservative Party close to oblivion.

“If MPs and members hope to survive as a serious fighting force then they cannot make this mistake again. They need to listen to the electorate.”

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The Godfather-style gang war gripping two major cities – with brutal attacks caught on camera

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The Godfather-style gang war gripping two major cities - with brutal attacks caught on camera

It’s like The Godfather, one reformed drug trafficker tells me.

The mythical gangster film centred on an organised crime dynasty locked in a transfer of power.

Communities in Scotland currently have a front row seat to a new war of violence, torture, and taunts as feuding drug lords and notorious families grapple for control of Glasgow and Edinburgh.

There have been more than a dozen brutal attacks over the past six weeks – ranging from fire bombings to attacks on children and gun violence.

A firebomb attack in Scotland
Image:
A firebomb attack in Scotland

Victims left for dead, businesses up in flames

Gangsters have filmed themselves setting fire to buildings and homes connected to the associates and relatives of their bitter rivals.

The main aim, they boast, is to “exterminate” the opposition.

The taunting footage, accompanied by the song Keep On Running by The Spencer Davis Group, has been plastered over social media as part of a deliberate game of goading.

A 12-year-old boy and 72-year-old woman were left for dead when teenagers wearing balaclavas burst into a home in north Glasgow.

Garages and businesses have gone up in flames. Shots were fired at an Edinburgh house.

Signals are being sent of who wants control of Scotland’s dark criminal underworld.

A firebomb attack in Scotland that saw a man through an incendiary device through a building window
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A firebomb attack that saw a man throw an incendiary device through a building window

A house after it was set on fire by two individuals in Glasgow
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The fire attack set to the song Keep On Running by The Spencer Davis Group

What’s caused the gang war?

The former director of the Scottish Crime and Drug Enforcement Agency, Graeme Pearson, explains how a “vacuum of leadership” is playing a part.

Last October, Glasgow-based cocaine kingpin Jamie Stevenson, known as The Iceman, was jailed after orchestrating a £100m cocaine shipment stashed in banana boxes from South America.

The mob leader was one of Britain’s most wanted, running his business like another on-screen criminal enterprise: The Sopranos.

The 59-year-old fugitive went on the run before eventually being hunted and apprehended by police while out jogging in the Netherlands.

Jamie Stevenson. Pic: Police Scotland
Image:
Jamie Stevenson. Pic: Police Scotland

Pic: Crown Office
Image:
Pic: Crown Office

‘Old scores to settle’

But paranoia was running rife about how this notorious gangster could be brought down. Was there a grass? Was it one of their own?

It further fuelled divisions and forced new alliances to be forged across Scotland’s organised criminal networks.

It wasn’t until The Iceman case came to court that it was revealed an encrypted messaging platform, known as EncroChat, had been infiltrated by law enforcement.

It ultimately led to Stevenson pleading guilty.

Ex-senior drug enforcement officer Mr Pearson told Sky News: “It is a complex picture because you have got people who are in prison who still want to have influence outside and look after what was their business.

“On the outside you’ve got wannabes who are coming forward, and they think this is an opportunity for them, and you have got others have old scores to settle that they could not settle when crime bosses were around.”

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Graham Pearson
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Graeme Pearson

Mr Pearson describes a toxic mix swirling to create outbursts of violence unfolding in Scotland.

He concluded: “All that mixes together – and the greed for the money that comes from drugs, and from the kudos that comes from being a ‘main man’, and you end up with competition, violence, and the kind of incidents we have seen over the past four to six weeks.”

New wave of violence ‘barbaric’

Glasgow man Mark Dempster is a former addict, dealer, and drug smuggler who is now an author and respected counsellor helping people quit drinking and drugs.

He describes the “jostle for power” as not a new concept among Glasgow’s high profile gangland families.

Mark Dempster is a former addict, dealer and drug smuggler who is now an author and respected counsellor
Image:
Mark Dempster

“There is always going to be someone new who wants to control the markets. It is like The Godfather. There is no difference between Scotland, Albania, or India,” he said.

Mr Dempster suggests a shift in tactics in Glasgow and Edinburgh in recent weeks, with 12-year-olds being viciously attacked in the middle of the night.

“It is barbaric. When young people, children, get pulled into the cross fire. It takes it to a different level.

“At least with the old mafiosa they had an unwritten rule that no children, no other family members. You would deal directly with the main people that were your opposition.”

Police Scotland is racing to get control of the situation, but declined to speak to Sky News about its ongoing operation.

It has been suggested 100 officers are working on this case, with “arrests imminent”.

But this is at the very sharp end of sophisticated criminal empires where the police are not feared, there are fierce vendettas and, clearly, power is up for grabs.

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Laws may need to be bolstered to crack down on exploitation of child ‘influencers’, senior MP suggests

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Laws may need to be bolstered to crack down on exploitation of child 'influencers', senior MP suggests

Laws may need to be strengthened to crack down on the exploitation of child “influencers”, a senior Labour MP has warned.

Chi Onwurah, chair of the science, technology and innovation committee, said parts of the Online Safety Act – passed in October 2023 – may already be “obsolete or inadequate”.

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Experts have raised concerns that there is a lack of provision in industry laws for children who earn money through brand collaborations on social media when compared to child actors and models.

This has led to some children advertising in their underwear on social media, one expert has claimed.

Those working in more traditional entertainment fields are safeguarded by performance laws, which strictly govern the hours a minor can work, the money they earn and who they are accompanied by.

The Child Influencer Project, which has curated the world’s first industry guidelines for the group, has warned of a “large gap in UK law” which is not sufficiently filled by new online safety legislation.

Official portrait of Chi Onwurah.
Pic: UK Parlimeant
Image:
Official portrait of Chi Onwurah.
Pic: UK Parlimeant

The group’s research found that child influencers could be exposed to as many as 20 different risks of harm, including to dignity, identity, family life, education, and their health and safety.

Ms Onwurah told Sky News there needs to be a “much clearer understanding of the nature of child influencers ‘work’ and the legal and regulatory framework around it”.

She said: “The safety and welfare of children are at the heart of the Online Safety Act and rightly so.

“However, as we know in a number of areas the act may already be obsolete or inadequate due to the lack of foresight and rigour of the last government.”

Victoria Collins, the Liberal Democrat spokesperson for science, innovation and technology, agreed that regulations “need to keep pace with the times”, with child influencers on social media “protected in the same way” as child actors or models.

“Liberal Democrats would welcome steps to strengthen the Online Safety Act on this front,” she added.

‘Something has to be done’

MPs warned in 2022 that the government should “urgently address the gap in UK child labour and performance regulation that is leaving child influencers without protection”.

They asked for new laws on working hours and conditions, a mandate for the protection of the child’s earnings, a right to erasure and to bring child labour arrangements under the oversight of local authorities.

However, Dr Francis Rees, the principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, told Sky News that even after the implementation of the Online Safety Act, “there’s still a lot wanting”.

“Something has to be done to make brands more aware of their own duty of care towards kids in this arena,” she said.

Dr Rees added that achieving performances from children on social media “can involve extremely coercive and disruptive practices”.

“We simply have to do more to protect these children who have very little say or understanding of what is really happening. Most are left without a voice and without a choice.”

What is a child influencer – and how are they at risk?

A child influencer is a person under the age of 18 who makes money through social media, whether that is using their image alone or with their family.

Dr Francis Rees, principal investigator for the Child Influencer Project, explains this is an “escalation” from the sharing of digital images and performances of the child into “some form of commercial gain or brand endorsement”.

She said issues can emerge when young people work with brands – who do not have to comply with standard practise for a child influencer as they would with an in-house production.

Dr Rees explains how, when working with a child model or actor, an advertising agency would have to make sure a performance license is in place, and make sure “everything is in accordance with many layers of legislation and regulation around child protection”.

But, outside of a professional environment, these safeguards are not in place.

She notes that 30-second videos “can take as long as three days to practice and rehearse”.

And, Dr Rees suggests, this can have a strain on the parent-child relationship.

“It’s just not as simple as taking a child on to a set and having them perform to a camera which professionals are involved in.”

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The researcher pointed to one particular instance, in which children were advertising an underwear brand on social media.

She said: “The kids in the company’s own marketing material or their own media campaigns are either pulling up the band of the underwear underneath their clothing, or they’re holding the underwear up while they’re fully clothed.

“But whenever you look at any of the sponsored content produced by families with children – mum, dad, and child are in their underwear.”

Dr Rees said it is “night and day” in terms of how companies are behaving when they have responsibility for the material, versus “the lack of responsibility once they hand it over to parents with kids”.

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Two arrested on suspicion of murder after disappearance of woman in South Wales

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Two arrested on suspicion of murder after disappearance of woman in South Wales

Police investigating the disappearance of a woman in South Wales have arrested two people on suspicion of murder.

Paria Veisi, 37, was last seen around 3pm on Saturday 12 April when she left her workplace in the Canton area of Cardiff.

She was driving her car, a black Mercedes GLC 200, which was later found on Dorchester Avenue in the Penylan area on the evening of Tuesday 15 April.

South Wales Police said it was now treating her disappearance as a murder investigation.

A 41-year-old man and a 48-year-old woman, both known to Ms Veisi, have been arrested on suspicion of murder and remain in police custody.

Detective Chief Inspector Matt Powell said he currently had “no proof that Paria is alive”.

The senior investigating officer added: “[Ms Veisi’s] family and friends are extremely concerned that they have not heard from her, which is totally out of character.

“Paria’s family has been informed and we are keeping them updated.

“We have two people in custody, and at this stage we are not looking for anybody else in connection with this investigation.

“Our investigation remains focused on Paria’s movements after she left work in the Canton area on Saturday April 12.

“Extensive CCTV and house-to-house inquiries are being carried out by a team of officers and I am appealing for anybody who has information, no matter how insignificant it may seem, to make contact.”

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Ms Veisi is described as having long, curly black hair.

She was last seen wearing a black zip-up gym top over a red top, black trousers and trainers, and was carrying a small handbag.

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