Can Rishi Sunak unite his warring party? Five big challenges for the new PM

Published

2 years ago

October 25, 2022

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Will it be the third time lucky this year for the Tories as they embark on their next prime minister?

Rishi Sunak told his colleagues yesterday – painfully aware that their opinion poll ratings are on the floor, if not crashing through the basement – that they must “unite or die”.

Here are five key challenges he faces.

Challenge one: a unity cabinet

Mr Sunak said he would create a cabinet of all the talents, a phrase that is often used but too often falls victim to prime ministers wanting to reward their loyalists.

We’ll see in the coming hours how many of Liz Truss and Boris Johnson‘s supporters make it into the cabinet, with Jeremy Hunt widely expected to stay as chancellor.

One key appointment to watch will be whether Ben Wallace, who clashed with Mr Sunak over defence spending last year and backed Ms Truss because she offered a multibillion-pound increase, will remain in post.

Right-wingers such as Suella Braverman, who threw her backing behind Mr Sunak, will expect jobs but also hold him to promises such as the scheme to send some migrants to Rwanda.

A cabinet that is a broad church means conflict behind closed doors, which can burst into the open – see Theresa May’s time in office. But the Tories want to see all strands of opinion brought in behind Mr Sunak.

Challenge two: balance the books

The fiscal plan to balance the books is still in the diary for next Monday and the Halloween statement is set to be full of horrors. How it lands is a crucial test, especially as the Bank of England makes its decision on interest rates later that week.

A £40bn black hole can only be plugged by spending cuts or tax rises and a mixture of both is expected.

What will be protected? Mr Johnson’s spending review last year promised what was described as a record funding settlement for the NHS – of around 3.8% a year. Inflation, running at 10%, would wipe that away when waiting lists have hit seven million.

Challenge three: the austerity PM

Among the difficult decisions to be made in the coming days is whether pensions and benefits will rise with inflation, or those reliant on them will see a real-terms cut.

Raising benefits by the level of average earnings rather than inflation would save a few billion pounds. But it could destroy a reputation Mr Sunak has traded on since he launched the furlough scheme in March 2020 as someone who protects the most vulnerable.

There could be a heightened risk for Mr Sunak, who is married to a billionaire, of showing he understands the struggles of those on the lowest incomes.

Also coming down the track, and a key consideration when it comes to cuts to departmental budgets, is a wave of strike ballots over public sector pay. Telling nurses and teachers they cannot have a pay rise because the country can’t afford it could be a tougher sell for a prime minister with a gilded lifestyle.

Challenge four: Johnson and internal enemies

What about our former prime minister, who blames Mr Sunak for his downfall?

He tweeted his congratulations to Mr Sunak on Tuesday afternoon and said “this is the moment for every Conservative to give our new PM their full and wholehearted support.

But Mr Johnson, who returned from the Dominican Republic to mount his own leadership campaign, which he claims could have succeeded, threatens to be an alternative power base in the party and perhaps to criticise from the sidelines if parts of his 2019 agenda are dropped.

Mr Sunak inherits an almost 80-seat majority, but all his economic measures will require difficult votes in parliament.

The publicly declared supporters of Mr Johnson and Penny Mordaunt, the Commons leader who also ran in the leadership contest – and not those they claimed to have, make up more than 90 MPs. There is a sizeable pool of unreconciled MPs who could make governing difficult.

Challenge five: is an election on the cards?

As well as having to get the economy back on track, and being Britain’s face on the world stage in dangerous times – something Mr Sunak has limited experience of, given his meteoric rise since he was elected seven years ago – he is relatively untested as a campaigner.

His constituency of Richmond in North Yorkshire is a safe seat and he inherits a Conservative Party seriously damaged by the past few months.

He hopes for another two years before an election and has no obligation to hold one.

But with even some Tory MPs calling for one, and more ominously, Conservative-supporting newspapers pointing out that he walks into Downing Street without a single vote being cast, he may – if it’s a rocky road ahead – struggle with an increasingly loud drumbeat to get a mandate from the public.

World

Body pulled from mine after police cut off supplies to ‘smoke out’ thousands of illegal miners

Published

17 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Body pulled from mine after police cut off supplies to 'smoke out' thousands of illegal miners

A body has been recovered from a South African mine after police cut off basic supplies in an effort to force around 4,000 illegal miners to resurface.

The body has emerged from the closed gold mine in the northwest town of Stilfontein a day after South Africa’s government said it would not help the illegal miners.

Around 20 people have surfaced from the mineshaft this week as police wait nearby to arrest all those appearing from underground.

It comes a day after a cabinet minister said the government was trying to “smoke them [the miners] out”.

The move is part of the police’s “Close the Hole” operation, whereby officers cut off supplies of food, water and other basic necessities to get those who have entered illegally to come out.

Local reports suggest the supply routes were cut off at the mine around two months ago, with relatives of the miners seen in the area as the stand-off continues.

A decomposed body was brought up on Thursday, with pathologists on the scene, police spokesperson Athlenda Mathe said.

It comes after South African cabinet minister Khumbudzo Ntshavheni told reporters on Wednesday that the government would not send any help to the illegal miners, known in the country as zama zamas, because they are involved in a criminal act.

“We are not sending help to criminals. We are going to smoke them out. They will come out. Criminals are not to be helped; criminals are to be prosecuted. We didn’t send them there,” Ms Ntshavheni said.

Senior police and defence officials are expected to visit the area on Friday to “reinforce the government’s commitment to bringing this operation to a safe and lawful conclusion”, according to a media advisory from the police.

In the last few weeks, over 1,000 miners have surfaced at various mines in South Africa’s North West province, where police have cut off supplies.

Many of the miners were reported to be weak, hungry and sickly after going for weeks without basic supplies.

Illegal mining remains common in South Africa’s old gold-mining areas, with miners going into closed shafts to dig for any possible remaining deposits.

The illegal miners are often from neighbouring countries, and police say the illegal operations involve larger syndicates that employ the miners.

Their presence in closed mines has also created problems with nearby communities, which complain that the illegal miners commit crimes ranging from robberies to rape.

Illegal mining groups are known to be heavily armed and disputes between rival groups sometimes result in fatal confrontations.

World

Ukrainian frontline commander warns: ‘The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem’

Published

20 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Ukrainian frontline commander warns: 'The world is scared of Russia and losing is not only our problem'

In the courtyard of a farmhouse now home to soldiers of the Ukrainian army’s 47th mechanised brigade, I’m introduced to a weary-looking unit by their commander Captain Oleksandr “Sasha” Shyrshyn.

We are about 10km from the border with Russia, and beyond it lies the Kursk region Ukraine invaded in the summer – and where this battalion is now fighting.

The 47th is a crack fighting assault unit.

They’ve been brought to this area from the fierce battles in the country’s eastern Donbas region to bolster Ukrainian forces already here.

War latest: Russia ready to carry out ‘massive attack’

Captain Shyrshyn explains that among the many shortages the military has to deal with, the lack of infantry is becoming a critical problem.

Sasha is just 30 years old, but he is worldly-wise. He used to run an organisation helping children in the country’s east before donning his uniform and going to war.

He is famous in Ukraine and is regarded as one of the country’s top field commanders, who isn’t afraid to express his views on the war and how it’s being waged.

His nom de guerre is ‘Genius’, a nickname given to him by his men.

‘Don’t worry, it’s not a minefield’

Sasha invited me to see one of the American Bradley fighting vehicles his unit uses.

We walk down a muddy lane before he says it’s best to go cross-country.

“We can go that way, don’t worry it’s not a minefield,” he jokes.

He leads us across a muddy field and into a forest where the vehicle is hidden from Russian surveillance drones that try to hunt both American vehicles and commanders.

Sasha shows me a picture of the house they had been staying in only days before – it was now completely destroyed after a missile strike.

Fortunately, neither he, nor any of his men, were there at the time.

“They target commanders,” he says with a smirk.

‘The world is scared of Russia’

It takes me a moment or two to realise we are only a few steps away from the Bradley, dug in and well hidden beneath the trees.

Sasha tells me the Bradley is the finest vehicle he has ever used.

A vehicle so good, he says, it’s keeping the Ukrainian army going in the face of Russia’s overwhelming numbers of soldiers.

He explains: “Almost all our work on the battlefield is cooperation infantry with the Bradley. So we use it for evacuations, for moving people from one place to another, as well as for fire-covering.

“This vehicle is very safe and has very good characteristics.”

Billions of dollars in military aid has been given to Ukraine by the United States, and this vehicle is one of the most valuable assets the US has provided.

Ukraine is running low on men to fight, and the weaponry it has is not enough, especially if it can’t fire long-range missiles into Russia itself – which it is currently not allowed to do.

If President-elect Donald Trump cuts the supply of military aid, the Ukrainians will lose – it’s that simple.

Sasha says: “We have a lack of weapons, we have a lack of artillery, we have a lack of infantry, and as the world doesn’t care about justice, and they don’t want to finish the war by our win, they are afraid of Russia.

“I’m sorry but they’re scared, they’re scared, and it’s not the right way.”

Like pretty much everyone in Ukraine, Sasha is waiting to see what the US election result will mean for his country.

He is sceptical about a deal with Russia.

“Our enemy only understands the language of power. And you cannot finish the war in 24 hours, or during the year without hard decisions, without a fight, so it’s impossible. It’s just talking without results,” he tells me.

‘Losing will be not only our problem’

These men expect the fierce battles inside Kursk to intensify in the coming days.

Indeed, alongside the main supply route into Kursk, workers are already building new defensive positions – unfurling miles of razor wire and digging bunkers for the Ukrainian army if it finds itself in retreat.

Sasha and his men are realistic about support fatigue from the outside world but will keep fighting to the last if they have to.

“I understand this is only our problem, it’s only our issue, and we have to fight this battle, like we have to defend ourselves, it’s our responsibility,” Sasha said.

But he points out everyone should realise just how critical this moment in time is.

“If we look at it widely, we have to understand that us losing will be not only our problem, but it will be for all the world.”

Stuart Ramsay reports from northeastern Ukraine with camera operator Toby Nash, and producers Dominique Van Heerden, Azad Safarov, and Nick Davenport.

World

Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued – as country counts flooding cost

Published

20 hours ago

November 14, 2024

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Spain flooding: New weather warnings issued - as country counts flooding cost

A weather warning has been issued for parts of Spain, as the country counts the cost of recent flooding.

The orange warnings are in place for parts of southwestern Spain – the area around Seville down towards Gibraltar.

Up to 8cm (3ins) of rain could fall within 12 hours, but the weekend looks much more settled in the country.

The latest warnings come just two weeks after flash flooding in Valencia and other parts of the country killed more than 200 people.

Malaga saw 14.2cm (5.6ins) of rainfall on Wednesday – Spain’s highest of the day – most of which fell in six hours.

All train services were halted in Malaga. Some flights have now resumed after the initial disruption.

Emergency services in the province have moved 3,000 people from homes at risk of flooding close to the Guadalhorce River in the west of the city.

Jamie Marchant, 29, from Caerphilly in South Wales travelled to Malaga last Wednesday.

He told Sky News that “debris” had been left behind by the recent rainfall in the region.

“Everyone is pitching in to clean up and some shops are opening as usual,” he added.

Orange warnings for the Valencia region in eastern Spain expired earlier on Thursday.

The adverse weather could lead to total insured losses of more than €4bn (£3.33bn), according to credit rating agency Morningstar DBRS.

Much of the claims are expected to be covered by the Spanish government’s insurance pool, the agency said, but insurance premiums are likely to increase.