How will Sunak try to unite the party? With a tactic that Johnson and Truss did not use | Beth Rigby
But seven weeks ago, Rishi Sunak was cast on to the political scrapheap as he lost out to Liz Truss to become prime minister and retreated to his North Yorkshire constituency, his ambitions shattered and his hopes for political power now beyond his grasp.
But on Monday, Mr Sunak staged the most remarkable of political comebacks in modern times, as the 42-year-old politician won the latest leadership contest, after Penny Mordaunt dropped out and Boris Johnson decided not to stand.
He will soon become the country’s 57th prime minister after a series of plot-twists, feuds and cock-ups so preposterous that, at times, the Tory party looked like it had been commissioned to write the plot lines for the next Aaron Sorkin political drama box set, rather than running the country.
Rishi Sunak wins race to be prime minister – live updates
Beyond the drama over the past few months, his election has been remarkable in other ways too – he will be our first British Asian prime minister, our first Hindu prime minister, and our second-ever youngest prime minister.
His is a journey of near political annihilation to victory in a dizzyingly short period of time, as the mistakes of his rival changed his destiny too.
When I asked one of his supporters, Tory MP Stephen Hammond, whether he was – like me – rather “dazed and confused” by this discombobulating turn of events, he told me that he was “delighted”.
“We now have a prime minister who’s going to govern in the interests of the whole country,” he said.
“I think he’ll choose the best talents of the Conservative Party to make sure we do that. And it’ll be a competent, sensible government.”
For those who supported him, the Tory “experiment” of personality-driven populist leadership – Boris Johnson – and ideological zealotry – Liz Truss – is over.
Mr Sunak, they hope, will mark a return to sensible, solid leadership.
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Moment Rishi Sunak announced as next PM
In a short statement after he was appointed party leader and prime minister elect, Mr Sunak pledged to serve with “integrity and humility” – two traits critics of his predecessors said they lacked.
He also acknowledged the “profound economic challenge” faced by the country and said his priority was to bring about “stability and unity” after the most fractious of times.
That might be the hope, what is the reality?
Read more:
Who is Rishi Sunak?
How do Sunak and Starmer measure up with voters?
First up, when Liz Truss was elected in September, MPs agreed that she was facing the toughest in-tray since the 1970s, with the energy bill crisis, spiralling inflation, a worsening cost of living crisis, and pressure on public services and public sector pay.
That in-tray has got harder still following Ms Truss’s handling of the economy, which has only served to further imperil government finances and push up interest rates, leaving the new PM and his chancellor with some very difficult decisions to take over tax and spend policies.
It was hard to see how Ms Truss was going to get cuts in public spending through parliament, be it from rowing back on defence spending to lifting benefits in line with inflation.
You saw last week that she was forced to recommit to lifting pensions in line with inflation after a backbench rebellion just two days after her chancellor refused to do so.
One figure familiar with Treasury thinking told me last week that the new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, was staring at a black hole in the public finances so big – despite the £32bn of tax cut reversals carried out by junking the mini-budget – that austerity cuts this time around might have to be even bigger than those imposed by George Osborne after the financial crisis in the early part of the last decade.
The prime minister might have changed, but the in-tray is still very much there.
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Analysis: Challenges ahead for Sunak
The second big issue for Mr Sunak is whether the party, after all the bloodletting of recent months, can genuinely come back together or whether it is ungovernable.
The incoming PM has certainly made inroads into bringing the party together, picking up the support of voices on the right of the party – Suella Braverman, David Frost, Steve Baker, Sir Iain Duncan Smith – as well as those on the centre ground, such as Tom Tugendhat.
He’d totted up nearly 200 public nominations – well over half of the parliamentary party – before Ms Mordaunt withdrew from the race, as well as picking up senior Johnson supporters, from Priti Patel to James Cleverly.
His backers say this reflects a party that is prepared to come back together, but don’t forget that Mr Johnson did – and these figures were independently verified by the 1922 committee – garner support of 102 MPs.
A rump of those could be irreconcilable to a Sunak premiership, given that they blame him for ousting Mr Johnson in the first place.
If a block of 35 or so MPs consistently refuse to play ball, Mr Sunak will soon be hamstrung in trying to get policy through parliament.
As those MPs who backed him cheered on the steps of Conservative Campaign Headquarters on Monday afternoon, there were a number of others staying away from the action, nursing grievances that may not be easy to bury.
Rishi Sunak arrives at Conservative Party HQ in Westminster
A tweet from Nadine Dorries, Mr Johnson’s most ardent backer, when the former PM withdrew from the race, was ominous.
“Boris would have won members vote [and] already had a mandate from the people,” she wrote. “Rishi and Penny, despite requests from Boris refused to unite which would have made governing utterly impossible.
“Penny actually asked him to step aside for her. It will now be impossible to avoid a general election.”
How many more might feel the same?
‘Big tent cabinet’
One way Mr Sunak is expected to try to avoid schisms with different groups within the party is to create a big tent cabinet – something that Mr Johnson and Ms Truss did not do.
That has the effect of binding those with different views into the government, but also means the PM really will have to rule by cabinet government rather than trying to steamroller decisions through.
And the final controversy, picked up by Ms Dorries, is legitimacy.
Three prime ministers in three years – two of them in less than two months – raises the question about legitimacy and mandate.
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Mr Sunak might try to answer the latter by returning the principles of the 2019 manifesto upon which the Tory party was elected.
But what of legitimacy? The party is trailing 20+ points in the polls and have changed leader twice without putting it to the British public.
Labour will argue that he has no mandate to govern and might well – as it did on the matter of the fracking vote that ended up toppling Ms Truss – try to divide the Tory party with votes on wedge issues.
Mr Sunak could also find himself coming under heavy political fire over his personal wealth, his wife’s historic tax arrangements (she was a non-dom but has now changed that arrangement) and his partygate fine.
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Tories ‘can’t keep doling out PMs’, says Labour deputy
Labour might well try to paint him as another public school prime minister who is out of touch with ordinary people and their lives.
Mr Sunak, for his part, will argue that he wasn’t born into great wealth and instead had parents who made sacrifices for him to succeed.
But Labour believe this is a weak flank for Mr Sunak: this is a reason why party operatives thought Penny Mordaunt was a tougher opposition for Sir Keir Starmer.
What he has got going for him is that the bar has been set so low by his predecessor.
Ms Truss had to junk her entire policy platform, lost any authority within her parliamentary party and became the most unpopular leader since polling began in a matter of weeks.
Mr Sunak might conclude from that the only way is up. But even if he can somehow begin to repair and even reunite his party, can he convince the country to look at him and the Conservatives again?
World
Tanks gather near Israeli-Lebanon border – as defence minister hold talks over ‘expansion’ of IDF activity
Israeli defence minister Yoav Gallant has held talks over the possibility of expanding Israel’s military offensive – as tanks were pictured on the country’s border with Lebanon.
In a statement on Saturday, Mr Gallant’s office said he was conducting “an operational situation assessment” regarding what it called “the expansion of IDF (Israel Defence Forces) activities in the northern arena”.
Israeli tanks and troops were later pictured near the border, in what Sky News’ security and defence editor Deborah Haynes said is the “clearest sign yet” that Israel’s conflict with Hezbollah is “about to expand even further”.
The military said it was mobilising three more battalions of reserve soldiers to serve across the country. It had already sent two brigades to northern Israel to prepare for a possible ground invasion.
The deployment comes after Hezbollah confirmed that its leader of more than three decades Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut on Friday.
Yoav Gallant holds a meeting with senior IDF officers. Pic: Israeli defence ministry
The militant group – which is aligned with Iran – vowed to continue its fight against Israel even as attacks continued to bombard areas around Lebanon’s capital.
At least six people were killed in the strikes – not including Nasrallah – and 91 were wounded, according to preliminary figures from Lebanon’s health ministry.
Israeli military tanks gather by the Israeli-Lebanon border. Pic: AP
The United Nations high commissioner for refugees said that airstrikes led to the displacement of “well over 200,000” people inside Lebanon.
“More than 50,000 Lebanese people, and Syrians living in Lebanon, have crossed the border into Syria,” Filippo Grande wrote on X on Saturday.
‘Israel is on the move’
In his first public remarks since the killing, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described Nasrallah as a “terrorist” and said his killing would help bring displaced Israelis back to their homes in the north and would pressure Hamas to free Israeli hostages held in Gaza.
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Netanyahu: Nasrallah ‘was the terrorist’
But with the threat of retaliation high, he said the coming days would bring “significant challenges” and warned Iran against trying to strike.
“There is no place in Iran or the Middle East that the long arm of Israel will not reach, and today you already know how true this is,” Mr Netanyahu said.
Pic: AP
“We have great achievements, but the work is not yet complete. In the coming days we will face significant challenges, and we will face them together,” he added.
“We are determined to continue to strike at our enemies, return our residents to their homes, and return all our abductees. We do not forget them for a moment.
“Israel is on the move.”
Protesters chant during an anti-Israel demonstration in Tehran. Pic: Majid Asgaripour/WANA
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei condemned the killing and announced five days of mourning. He said Lebanon will make Israel “regret their actions” and Nasrallah’s blood “will not go unavenged”.
In a letter to the UN Security Council, Iran’s UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani asked for an “emergency meeting” of the 15-member body, calling on it to “compel Israel” to cease all military action in both Gaza and Lebanon and “comply with relevant UNSC resolutions”.
Read more:
Is wider war in the Middle East now inevitable?
Hezbollah and Iran must now decide to fight or back down
Pic: Majid Asgaripour/WANA
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Meanwhile, hundreds of protesters took to the streets of Tehran, waving Hezbollah flags and chanting “death to Israel” and “death to Netanyahu the murderer”.
People also gathered in the Lebanese city of Sidon and in Amman, Jordan, to mourn Nasrallah. The 64-year-old had countless followers across the Arab and Islamic world, but was viewed as an extremist in much of the West.
The pictures from Beirut are unnerving to say the least, the predictions for the immediate future even more so.
With the dust still settling from this game-changing assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, there are pressing questions crying out for answers.
Most of all, is the Middle East about to erupt into a regional conflict that threatens us all? That’s been the warning for almost a year, so is it about to happen?
Not if America and its allies can help it.
Follow latest: Iran warns Israel will ‘regret their actions’
Hezbollah is a designated terrorist organisation for the US, UK and other Western nations. It has killed hundreds of their citizens over the years.
There is no doubt President Joe Biden has felt what he called a “measure of justice” that Nasrallah has been killed.
But there is also a fear of what comes next. From the president down we are hearing urgent calls for de-escalation and a diplomatic solution. And the US has rushed military assets to ward off Hezbollah’s patrons in Iran doing their worst. But will that be enough?
Lebanese Red Cross workers inspect a destroyed building. Pic: AP
US-led diplomacy to contain the Middle East crisis has failed.
A senior Middle Eastern diplomat told Sky News the assassination is a kick in the teeth for the US president.
“For all the bombs and billions he has given the Israelis,” he said, “the least they could have done for him in the last weeks of his presidency was a ceasefire in the region”.
With diplomacy stalled, what happens next depends on both Iran and Israel.
For its part, Iran may feel it has no alternative but to weigh in. It may fear the massive missile arsenal it supplied is so jeopardised it must intervene and save Hezbollah.
Smoke rises as a building collapses in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP
Iranians have long regarded Hezbollah as an insurance policy for the day Israel might attack Iran itself. If it sees its ally close to total collapse, might it then weigh in?
If it does, Israel’s allies led by America might feel compelled to come to its defence. The full scale war feared for almost a year could engulf the region.
But there are good reasons for Iran not to rush to action.
The Middle East seems a dangerous and unpredictable place but certain rules and assumptions apply, even in all its chaos.
For all their fanaticism, the ayatollahs of Tehran are pragmatic and seek the preservation of their grip on power above all. That has been a rule of the Middle Eastern jungle since they seized power 45 years ago.
Is it pragmatic or wise to up the ante and more directly support Hezbollah, when it is at its weakest? The Iranian regime is not that strong either, crippled economically by sanctions and mismanagement, and socially and politically by months of civil unrest, albeit now quashed.
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There are limits too to what Iran could achieve with direct military intervention anyway in a war that is 2,000km from its borders. The Iranians may conclude this round in the war against Israel is over. They think in long time spans, after all. Time to regroup and move on to fight another day?
There will no doubt be days more of sound and fury, like we have seldom seen before. The mourning and funerals of Nasrallah and his lieutenants are likely to be the focus of intense anger and will raise tensions. But what happens afterwards?
That also comes down to Israel.
People stand next to IDF tanks in northern Israel. Pic: Reuters
It may now feel it has the wind in its sails and seize the moment to invade Lebanon on the ground to push Hezbollah back from the border. That would be an extremely dangerous moment too, potentially drawing in supportive militia and Iranian forces based in Syria.
The hills of southern Lebanon are a treacherous country for a military like Israel’s that relies on infantry and tanks. They could be drawn into a lengthy and punishing campaign that could then destabilise the region.
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What does Nasrallah’s death mean for Hezbollah?
Read more:
Analysis: Hezbollah and Iran must decide to fight or back down
Who was Hassan Nasrallah?
Then there is Lebanon itself. An uneasy compromise between the warring factions of its civil war in the 1970s and 80s has held for decades but its always fragile status quo is now threatened. The chessboard of its multi-denominational politics has potentially been upended by the removal of its most powerful player.
If Lebanon descends back into factional fighting, regional stability will be undermined too.
The Middle East is in grave danger of further escalation. Western and regional diplomats are working round the clock to pull it back from the brink but recent efforts have all ended in failure and neither Israel nor Hezbollah seem to be listening.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has been killed after airstrikes in Beirut, the Israeli army has said.
Recent weeks have seen Israel unleash a barrage of strikes against Lebanon after it turned its attention to the conflict at its northern border.
On Friday, Israel targeted the capital Beirut with a series of attacks claiming to have struck the headquarters of Hezbollah.
People stand near a picture of Nasrallah during the funeral of a Hezbollah member. Pic: Reuters
People watch Hassan Nasrallah delivering a televised address in Beirut. Pic: Reuters
The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) said it carried out a “precise strike” on Hezbollah’s “central headquarters”, which it claimed was “embedded under residential buildings in the heart of the Dahieh in Beirut”.
The first wave of attacks shook windows across the city and sent thick clouds of smoke billowing into the air.
Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs. Pic: AP
While Israel stressed it had been a “precise” strike, preliminary figures from Lebanon’s health ministry confirmed at least six other people were killed and 91 were wounded.
Israel said Nasrallah was the intended target and initially there were claims he had survived.
However, after several hours of confusion, his death was confirmed by Israel.
“Hassan Nasrallah will no longer be able to terrorise the world,” the IDF said.
Hours later, a defiant Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah’s death but vowed their fight with Israel would continue after confirming they had fired upon sites in northern Israel.
“The leadership of Hezbollah pledges to the highest, holiest, and most precious martyr in our path full of sacrifices and martyrs to continue its jihad in confronting the enemy, supporting Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast and honourable people,” they said.
Recent days have seen Israel launch strikes in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and Bhamdoun
The Israeli strike that allegedly took Nasrallah’s life was on residential buildings in Dahieh, Beirut
Alongside claiming to have killed Nasrallah, the IDF said it had killed a number of other commanders, including Ali Karaki, the commander of the southern front.
The country’s military said the strike was carried out while Hezbollah leadership met at their underground headquarters in Dahieh.
In the aftermath of the most recent attacks, an Israeli military spokesperson declined to comment on whether US-made Mark 84 heavy bombs were used in the strike against Nasrallah.
“The strike was conducted while Hezbollah’s senior chain of command were operating from the headquarters and advancing terrorist activities against the citizens of the State of Israel,” Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani said in a media briefing.
He continued: “We hope this will change Hezbollah’s actions.”
Read more from Sky News
Did Israel sabotage the best chance of ending the war?
Starmer and Netanyahu fail to meet
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Hezbollah leader killed says IDF
He added the number of civilian casualties was unclear but blamed Hezbollah for positioning itself in residential areas.
“We’ve seen Hezbollah carry out attacks against us for a year. It’s safe to assume that they are going to continue carrying out their attacks against us or try to,” he said.
Meanwhile, Iran said it was in constant contact with Hezbollah and other allies to determine its “next step”, but Reuters reported the country’s supreme leader was transferred to a secure location in light of the latest attack.
Speaking after the attack, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called on Muslims “to stand by the people of Lebanon and the proud Hezbollah” and said: “The fate of this region will be determined by the forces of resistance, with Hezbollah at the forefront,” state media reported.
Nasrallah’s death will be a blow to Hezbollah as it continues to reel from a campaign of escalating Israeli attacks.
Flames rise after an Israeli airstrike in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Saturday. Pic: AP
Nasrallah is latest Hezbollah leader to fall
While Nasrallah’s death is certainly the most high-profile of recent attacks, it continues a trend of Israel targeting Hezbollah’s leadership structure.
Also on Saturday, in the early hours of the morning, the commander of the group’s missile unit and his deputy were killed in another Israeli attack in southern Lebanon.
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Then, in a separate strike overnight on Friday, the IDF said it killed the head of Hamas’s network in southern Syria.
This followed the deaths of other senior commanders, including Muhammad Qabisi, earlier in the month.
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