Larson emerges from Wallace incident to dominate Miami
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Marty Smith
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Ryan McGee
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ESPN Senior Writer- Senior writer for ESPN The Magazine and ESPN.com
- 2-time Sports Emmy winner
- 2010, 2014 NMPA Writer of the Year
It’s the business end of the NASCAR Cup Series season. Joey Logano has secured his place in the Nov. 6 championship final race in Phoenix, and seven other drivers are looking to book their tickets to join him.
And while the title fight is as wide open as it’s ever been, there’s still plenty else to talk about, from Kyle Larson‘s Homestead-Miami dominance to Bubba Wallace‘s suspension to who’s primed for a big weekend at Martinsville on Sunday. So, with so much at stake in stock-car racing, ESPN turned to Ryan McGee and Marty Smith for their takes on the final few weeks of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season.
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McGee: You and I have not talked about this yet, but Bubba Wallace was suspended for a race. It’s the first time a Cup Series driver was parked for an in-race incident since Matt Kenseth was in 2015. Marty, where do you net out on all of that? Because I feel like the repercussions are still rolling.
Smith: I think they absolutely are. And since we haven’t discussed Wallace’s actions, just completely unacceptable in every way. There are certain rules that do not get broken. And the No. 1 unwritten-driver-code rule is you don’t right rear somebody and hook them into the fence at 185 miles an hour.
McGee: In traffic. Out of a turn. All of it was so wrong.
Smith: Every bit of it was just unacceptable. And to quote Logano, who was very outspoken afterward, it could have killed Larson. Fortunately, he wasn’t even injured. And then, after Wallace hooked Larson into the fence, Wallace was extremely frustrated, got out of the car and started shoving Larson, who managed to maintain his composure the entire time and not participate in the fight. I don’t know how he did that, quite frankly.
I understand Wallace’s frustration, stemming from the fact that he felt like he got fenced, but he took that frustration out in a completely overboard and wrong way. If another competitor had run up to me after doing what Wallace did and started shoving me, I certainly wouldn’t have had the composure to walk away from it like Larson did.
McGee: And then turn around and put a beatdown on everybody the very next weekend at Homestead, and look an awful lot like Kyle Larson the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series champion.
Smith: That’s very apropos of Larson at Homestead-Miami Speedway, where, if you’re going to win, you have to run the top of the track, you have to make the top work. He’s the best maybe ever at making the top work. Larson kind of brought that into the sport in a lot of ways. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was very good at running the top during the later years of his career — really made that momentum off the corner, it was something to behold — but Larson took it to a whole other level with his world-class historic car control from being so adept on dirt.
McGee: I thought it was super crucial for NASCAR to have a weekend like it had at Homestead-Miami, because when it was over, everyone was talking about the race. Everyone was talking about Larson. Everyone was talking about headed to Martinsville, one race to go before the championship final four. As we talk on Tuesday, there is no concern of sitting and waiting on a penalty report or repercussions being handed down by NASCAR, and it feels like every Tuesday for the past two months, we’ve been dealing with something other than racing. So I thought it was a pretty good day for the sport.
Smith: No doubt. And it’s such an interesting time for NASCAR, because all the way back to February when we started this season, you and I just felt a unique energy. And every year, almost invariably, you get into the summer and it’s sort of the doldrums of the season and it’s starting to feel like a really long slog. But I still feel a really new momentum despite the fact that we’re 35 weeks in and I couldn’t begin to tell you who’s going to win the championship. And that is damn rare, man.
That’s another factor in NASCAR’s favor is that it really is shaping up to be kind of the Game 7 idea that they wanted all those years ago. They implemented this “four drivers, one race, winner-take-all” format that invariably seems to have rewarded the best team, but we’ll see what happens in 2022 when we get to Phoenix here in a couple of weeks.
McGee: I have never gone into the last two races of the year having zero clue what’s going to happen. In the first part of our careers, Jeff Gordon would’ve already won the championship a month ago, right? And then we have this, what I still call new format, with the final race being worth everything, but even then, you had a pretty good idea going in of who was the favorite and who wasn’t. And now we’re in a world where Ross Chastain leads the league in top-five finishes, and I think that’s awesome, but it also makes me realize I have zero clue what’s going to happen. And I dig that.
Smith: I still have my money on Chase Elliott. I just feel like that No. 9 car, they just have a very unique chemistry with him and his crew chief Alan Gustafson, and they understand what it’s like to get it done. I think a lot of people right now are kind of thinking, “Okay, might this be Denny Hamlin‘s year? Could this be the time that he closes it out?” And you know, next weekend’s going to be critical for him, because he is so good at these short tracks.
McGee: Martinsville is the best because it’s crazy and it’s unpredictable, but you’re exactly right. We’re going to a place where Hamlin has been racing since he could barely walk, going back to those Allison Legacy cars. That’s the first time I saw Hamlin race. And oh, by the way, you know who else is really good at Martinsville? Bubba Wallace.
The first 12-team College Football Playoff is down to the final two contenders: Notre Dame and Ohio State.
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish and eighth-seeded Buckeyes will meet Jan. 20 at Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium for the CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T. Whichever team wins will end a championship drought. Notre Dame aims for its first title since 1988. Ohio State’s lull isn’t nearly as long, as the Buckeyes won the first CFP championship a decade ago, but given how consistently elite they are, it seems like a while.
Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman and Ohio State’s Ryan Day are also aiming for their first championships as head coaches, and Freeman’s past will be in the spotlight. Freeman and the Irish lost to the Buckeyes and Day in each of the past two seasons. But after a masterful coaching job this season, Freeman now will face his alma mater — he was an All-Big Ten linebacker for Ohio State under coach Jim Tressel — with everything on the line. Day, meanwhile, can secure the loftiest goal for a team that fell short of earlier ones, but never stopped swinging.
Here’s your first look at the championship matchup and what to expect in the ATL. — Adam Rittenberg
When: Jan. 20 at 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the semifinal: Notre Dame’s resilience and situational awareness/execution are undeniably its signature traits and could propel the team to a title. The Irish have overcome injuries all season and did so again against Penn State. They also erased two deficits and continued to hold the edge in the “middle eight” — the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half — while dominating third down on both sides of the ball. Notre Dame can rely on front men such as quarterback Riley Leonard, running back Jeremiyah Love and linebacker Jack Kiser, but also on backup QB Steve Angeli, wide receiver Jaden Greathouse and kicker Mitch Jeter. These Irish fight, and they’re very hard to knock out.
X factor: Greathouse entered Thursday with moderate numbers — 29 receptions, 359 yards, one touchdown — and had only three total catches for 14 yards in the first two CFP games. But he recorded career highs in both receptions (7) and receiving yards (105) and tied the score on a 54-yard touchdown with 4:38 to play. A Notre Dame offense looking for more from its wide receivers, especially downfield, could lean more on Greathouse, who exceeded his receptions total from the previous five games but might be finding his groove at the perfect time. He also came up huge in the clutch, recording all but six of his receiving yards in the second half.
How Notre Dame wins: The Irish won’t have the talent edge in Atlanta, partly because they’ve lost several stars to season-ending injuries, but they have the right traits to hang with any opponent. Notre Dame needs contributions in all three phases and must continue to sprinkle in downfield passes, an element offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has pushed. And they finally did start seeing results against Penn State. The Irish likely can’t afford to lose the turnover margin, although they can help themselves by replicating their third-down brilliance — 11 of 17 conversions on offense, 3 of 11 conversions allowed on defense — from the Penn State win. — Rittenberg
What we learned in the semifinal: The Buckeyes have a defense with championship mettle, headlined by senior defensive end Jack Sawyer, who delivered one of the biggest defensive plays in Ohio State history. On fourth-and-goal with just over two minutes remaining, Sawyer sacked Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers, forcing a fumble that he scooped up and raced 83 yards for a game-clinching touchdown, propelling Ohio State to the national title game. The Buckeyes weren’t perfect in the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, and they struggled offensively for much of the night against a talented Texas defense. But Ohio State showed late why its defense is arguably the best in college football, too.
X factor: The play two snaps before the Sawyer scoop-and-score set the table. On second-and-goal from the Ohio State 1-yard line, unheralded senior safety Lathan Ransom dashed past incoming blockers and dropped Texas running back Quintrevion Wisner for a 7-yard loss. After an incomplete pass, the Longhorns were forced into desperation mode on fourth-and-goal down a touchdown with just over two minutes remaining. All-American safety Caleb Downs, who had an interception on Texas’ ensuing drive, rightfully gets all the headlines for the Ohio State secondary. But the Buckeyes have other veteran standouts such as Ransom throughout their defense.
How Ohio State wins: Texas took away Ohio State’s top offensive playmaker, true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who had only one reception for 3 yards on three targets. As the first two playoff games underscored, the Buckeyes offense is at its best when Smith gets the ball early and often. Notre Dame is sure to emulate the Texas blueprint, positioning the defensive backs to challenge Smith. Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly has to counter with a plan that finds ways to get the ball into Smith’s hands, no matter what the Fighting Irish do. — Jake Trotter
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Doug Greenberg, ESPN
Ohio State opened as a 9.5-point favorite over Notre Dame in the College Football Playoff National Championship Presented by AT&T, per ESPN BET odds.
If that line holds, it would be tied for the second-largest spread in a CFP national championship game and the fourth largest in the CFP/BCS era. Georgia was -13.5 against TCU in the 2022 national championship, while Alabama showed -9.5 against none other than Ohio State to decide the 2020 campaign. Both favorites covered the spread in blowout fashion, combining for a cover margin of 63.
Notre Dame is 12-3 against the spread this season, tied with Arizona State (12-2) and Marshall (12-1) for the most covers in the nation. The Irish are 7-0 ATS against ranked teams and 2-0 ATS as underdogs, with both covers going down as outright victories, including their win over Penn State (-1.5) in the CFP national semifinal.
However, Notre Dame was also on the losing end of the largest outright upset of the college football season when it fell as a 28.5-point favorite to Northern Illinois.
Ohio State is 9-6 against the spread and has been a favorite in every game it has played this season; it has covered the favorite spread in every CFP game thus far, including in its semifinal win against Texas when it covered -6 with overwhelming public support.
The Buckeyes also have been an extremely popular pick in the futures market all season. At BetMGM as of Friday morning, OSU had garnered a leading 28.2% of money and 16.8% of bets to win the national title, checking in as the sportsbook’s greatest liability.
Ohio State opened at +700 to win it all this season and is now -350 with just one game to play.
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