In order to qualify for the $7,500 tax credit, the Biden administration’s Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) requires a proportion of battery minerals in EVs to be extracted or processed in the US or free-trade partner countries. But a lot of automakers simply aren’t prepared for that requirement.
Electrek spoke with Megan O’Connor, cofounder and CEO of Nth Cycle, a Beverly, Massachusetts-based metals processing tech company, about how her company can help EV manufacturers address this challenge quickly.
Electrek: How will the IRA positively impact the critical mineral supply chain?
Megan O’Connor: The IRA is the most ambitious climate policy we’ve ever seen in the US and arguably one of the more aggressive policies in the world. It provides strong incentives for the usage of critical minerals that are refined or recycled domestically. We’re calling this the new “compliant supply” of minerals like nickel and cobalt.
Unfortunately, there’s not enough compliant supply today to meet the demand for critical minerals in North America to build electric vehicles. From 2024 to 2028, there’s going to be a major imbalance between compliant supply and demand.
There aren’t enough end-of-life EV batteries to allow recycling at a scale that can bridge the gap, and permitting new mines in North America is a five-plus-year process. We need to move quicker and responsibly on new mining opportunities, and look for new existing sources of critical minerals that can be recycled at home.
Electrek: What’s next for the clean energy transition when it comes to domestic mineral supply?
Megan O’Connor: Flexibility in refining is the next key factor in developing a compliant supply of critical minerals at home. Adding flexibility to the quality and consistency of ores and recycled materials that can be refined at home increases our ability to keep mined ores and recycled metals here when they’re currently shipped overseas for processing.
Additionally, most recyclers today focus on processing end-of-life or manufacturing scrap batteries for critical mineral sources. We expect to see companies and technologies go beyond batteries to find other sources of critical minerals already in circulation at home. Growth of new technologies and market expansion will be needed to address the imbalance between compliant supply and demand.
Electrek: How will domestic manufacturers like VW in Tennessee be able to rectify the issue of mineral components not meeting IRA requirements?
Megan O’Connor: By partnering with Nth Cycle, VW would be able to meet compliance in months, not years.
Electrek: How is Nth Cycle helping to meet the IRA requirements in the electrification transition?
Megan O’Connor: Nth Cycle produces a mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP), which contains nickel and cobalt. Production of MHP through laterite ore refining is growing in popularity as a precursor chemical for battery cathode manufacturers.
However, 81% of today’s MHP supply is refined in Indonesia, by Chinese companies, through a carbon-intensive hydrometallurgy refining process called HPAL (high-pressure acid leaching). This HPAL-based supply of MHP is harmful to the environment, and as a foreign supply, is not a compliant supply of critical minerals for domestic battery manufacturing under the recently passed Inflation Reduction Act.
Nth Cycle customers can have confidence in a domestic supply of MHP that meets compliance standards for EV tax credits under the Inflation Reduction Act while dramatically reducing the carbon footprint of domestic refining.
We can bring additional compliant supply to the market and close the supply/demand gap of 150,000 tonnes of Ni (equivalent to 340 GWh of batteries) over the next five years.
If we were fully deployed right now, Nth could find 100kt tonnes of Ni per year from within the US that isn’t currently being recycled. We estimate a further shortage of at least 50kt of Ni per year.
Our electro-extraction technology is 92% lower emissions than traditional refining processes in mining today and 44% lower emissions than today’s best-in-class recycling technologies. This is third-party verified.
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On today’s fleet-focused episode of Quick Charge, we talk about a hot topic in today’s trucking industry called, “the messy middle,” explore some of the ways legacy truck brands are working to reduce fuel consumption and increase freight efficiency. PLUS: we’ve got ReVolt Motors’ CEO and founder Gus Gardner on-hand to tell us why he thinks his solution is better.
You know, for some people.
We’ve also got a look at the Kenworth Supertruck 2 concept truck, revisit the Revoy hybrid tandem trailer, and even plug a great article by CCJ’s Jeff Seger, who is asking some great questions over there. All this and more – enjoy!
New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news.
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Thanks to Trump’s repeated executive order attacks on US clean energy policy, nearly $8 billion in investments and 16 new large-scale factories and other projects were cancelled, closed, or downsized in Q1 2025.
The $7.9 billion in investments withdrawn since January are more than three times the total investments cancelled over the previous 30 months, according to nonpartisan policy group E2’s latest Clean Economy Works monthly update.
However, companies continue to invest in the US renewable sector. Businesses in March announced 10 projects worth more than $1.6 billion for new solar, EV, and grid and transmission equipment factories across six states. That includes Tesla’s plan to invest $200 million in a battery factory near Houston that’s expected to create at least 1,500 new jobs. Combined, the projects are expected to create at least 5,000 new permanent jobs if completed.
Michael Timberlake of E2 said, “Clean energy companies still want to invest in America, but uncertainty over Trump administration policies and the future of critical clean energy tax credits are taking a clear toll. If this self-inflicted and unnecessary market uncertainty continues, we’ll almost certainly see more projects paused, more construction halted, and more job opportunities disappear.”
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March’s 10 new projects bring the overall number of major clean energy projects tracked by E2 to 390 across 42 states and Puerto Rico. Companies have said they plan to invest more than $133 billion in these projects and hire 122,000 permanent workers.
Since Congress passed federal clean energy tax credits in August 2022, 34 clean energy projects have been cancelled, downsized, or shut down altogether, wiping out more than 15,000 jobs and scrapping $10 billion in planned investment, according to E2 and Atlas Public Policy.
However, in just the first three months of 2025, after Trump started rolling back clean energy policies, 13 projects were scrapped or scaled back, totaling more than $5 billion. That includes Bosch pulling the plug on its $200 million hydrogen fuel cell plant in South Carolina and Freyr Battery canceling its $2.5 billion battery factory in Georgia.
Republican-led districts have reaped the biggest rewards from Biden’s clean energy tax credits, but they’re also taking the biggest hits under Trump. So far, more than $6 billion in projects and over 10,000 jobs have been wiped out in GOP districts alone.
And the stakes are high. Through March, Republican districts have claimed 62% of all clean energy project announcements, 71% of the jobs, and a staggering 83% of the total investment.
A full map and list of announcements can be seen on E2’s website here. E2 says it will incorporate cancellation data in the coming weeks.
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Tesla has reportedly delayed the launch of its new “affordable EV,” which is believed to be a stripped-down Model Y, in the United States.
Last year, Tesla CEO Elon Musk made a pivotal decision that altered the automaker’s direction for the next few years.
The CEO canceled Tesla’s plan to build a cheaper new “$25,000 vehicle” on its next-generation “unboxed” vehicle platform to focus solely on the Robotaxi, utilizing the latest technology, and instead, Tesla plans to build more affordable EVs, though more expensive than previously announced, on its existing Model Y platform.
Musk has believed that Tesla is on the verge of solving self-driving technology for the last few years, and because of that, he believes that a $25,000 EV wouldn’t make sense, as self-driving ride-hailing fleets would take over the lower end of the car market.
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However, he has been consistently wrong about Tesla solving self-driving, which he first said would happen in 2019.
In the meantime, Tesla’s sales have been decreasing and the automaker had to throttle down production at all its manufacturing facilities.
That’s why, instead of building new, more affordable EVs on new production lines, Musk decided to greenlight new vehicles built on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y – increasing the utilization rate of its existing manufacturing lines.
Those vehicles have been described as “stripped-down Model Ys” with fewer features and cheaper materials, which Tesla said would launch in “the first half of 2025.”
Reuters is now reporting that Tesla is seeing a delay of “at least months” in launching the first new “lower-cost Model Y” in the US:
Tesla has promised affordable vehicles beginning in the first half of the year, offering a potential boost to flagging sales. Global production of the lower-cost Model Y, internally codenamed E41, is expected to begin in the United States, the sources said, but it would be at least months later than Tesla’s public plan, they added, offering a range of revised targets from the third quarter to early next year.
Along with the delay, the report also claims that Tesla aims to produce 250,000 units of the new model in the US by 2026. This would match Tesla’s currently reduced production capacity at Gigafactory Texas and Fremont factory.
The report follows other recent reports coming from China that also claimed Tesla’s new “affordable EVs” are “stripped-down Model Ys.”
The Chinese report references the new version of the Model 3 that Tesla launched in Mexico last year. It’s a regular Model 3, but Tesla removed some features, like the second-row screen, ambient lighting strip, and it uses fabric interior material rather than Tesla’s usual vegan leather.
The new Reuters report also said that Tesla planned to follow the stripped-down Model Y with a similar Model 3.
In China, the new vehicle was expected to come in the second half of 2025, and Tesla was waiting to see the impact of the updated Model Y, which launched earlier this year.
Electrek’s Take
These reports lend weight to what we have been saying for a year now: Tesla’s “more affordable EVs” will essentially be stripped-down versions of the Model Y and Model 3.
While they will enable Tesla to utilize its currently underutilized factories more efficiently, they will also cannibalize its existing Model 3 and Y lineup and significantly reduce its already dwindling gross margins.
I think Musk will sell the move as being good in the long term because it will allow Tesla to deploy more vehicles, which will later generate more revenue through the purchase of the “Full Self-Driving” (FSD) package.
However, that has been his argument for years, and it has yet to pan out as FSD still requires driver supervision and likely will for years to come, resulting in an extremely low take-rate for the $8,000 package.
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