NHL Power Rankings: Big moves in the top 3, plus every team’s biggest shock so far
The first two weeks of the 2022-23 NHL season are in the books, and while some things haven’t surprised us — the Carolina Hurricanes and Vegas Golden Knights leading their divisions, and the Arizona Coyotes near the bottom — there has been no shortage of shocks for every club thus far. This week alongside our updated power rankings, we’ll identify the player, stat or trend that has surprised us most for all 32 teams.
How we rank: A panel of ESPN hockey commentators, analysts, reporters and editors rates teams against one another — taking into account game results, injuries and upcoming schedule — and those results are tabulated to produce the list featured here.
Note: Previous ranking for each team refers to the last edition, published Oct. 21. Points paces are through Thursday’s games.
Previous ranking: 1
Points percentage: 0.750
Next seven days: vs. NYI (Oct. 28), @ PHI (Oct. 29), vs. WSH (Oct. 31), @ TB (Nov. 3)
A surprising linchpin to Carolina’s early push has been its second line, centered by the emergent Jesperi Kotkaniemi. The Hurricanes have been waiting to see the best of their young forward, and his unit with Andrei Svechnikov and Martin Necas is showcasing just that. Kotkaniemi has been a shockingly good two-way contributor, and is 57.5% in the faceoff dot.
Previous ranking: 7
Points percentage: 0.875
Next seven days: @ CBJ (Oct. 28), @ PIT (Nov. 1), @ NYR (Nov. 3)
Simply put, this has been a surprisingly great start for a team who many believed was past its point of serious contention. Boston was missing Brad Marchand (their leading scorer from last season) and Charlie McAvoy (who generates ample offense from the blue line) for the first two weeks, and still managed a 6-1-0 record while tying for the most goals scored in the league (30).
Previous ranking: 9
Points percentage: 0.643
Next seven days: @ NJ (Otc. 28), @ NYI (Oct. 29)
Colorado’s power play has been shockingly good, and the Avalanche are employing an unconventional style to boot. While Colorado’s top unit is the classic alignment (four forwards and one defenseman), they’ve tried a second unit with three (!) defensemen and two forwards. Surprisingly, that’s been a winning recipe — the Avalanche are at 50% on the man advantage, nearly 20 percentage points better than the next team.
Previous ranking: 5
Points percentage: 0.643
Next seven days: @ VAN (Oct. 28), @ SEA (Oct. 29), vs. BOS (Nov. 1), @ BUF (Nov. 2)
Sidney Crosby playing like a Hart Trophy candidate won’t floor anyone. When Crosby’s linemate Jake Guentzel got hurt though, the surprising pick to initially replace him was Danton Heinen, who is having an unexpectedly great start. The winger reeled off three goals and six points in his first seven games, and is playing some of his best hockey ever — all on a $1 million deal!
Previous ranking: 2
Points percentage: 0.833
Next seven days: vs. EDM (Oct. 29), vs. SEA (Nov. 1), vs. NSH (Nov. 3)
It’s no great shock that Calgary is off to a franchise-best start after bringing on Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau over the summer. But the chemistry Kadri found so quickly with Andrew Mangiapane and Dillon Dube on the Flames’ second line? That’s a welcome surprise for Calgary’s offense. It’s impossible to predict how players will mesh — and getting in the groove can take time — yet that trio has been perfectly complementary.
Previous ranking: 8
Points percentage: 0.750
Next seven days: vs. ANA (Oct. 28), vs. WPG (Oct. 30), @ WSH (Nov. 1), @ OTT (Nov. 3)
How’s this for balance? The white-hot Golden Knights have gotten at least one point from 19 of their 20 skaters this season. And Vegas has 14 different goal scorers already. For a club that struggled to stay competitive down the stretch last season, the Golden Knights’ surprisingly robust offensive attack isn’t letting any opponents off easy right now.
Previous ranking: 6
Points percentage: 0.563
Next seven days: vs. OTT (Oct. 29), @ ARI (Nov. 1), @ SJ (Nov. 3)
Remember last spring, when Florida’s woeful power play contributed to the President’s Trophy winner’s early postseason exit? Well, in a shocking twist, the subsequent special teams overhaul hasn’t been good. The Panthers are averaging more power-play opportunities per game (4.71) than any team in the league, but are an awful 6.1% at converting them. Both man-advantage goals Florida scored came in the same period of the same game. Back to the drawing board.
Previous ranking: 12
Points percentage: 0.563
Next seven days: @ LA (Oct. 29), @ ANA (Oct. 30), vs. PHI (Nov. 2)
Toronto has looked shockingly out of sorts at times, from their many defensive miscues to concerns over streaky scoring. The Leafs’ surprisingly stable spot? Goaltending. Matt Murray may be out with an injury, but Ilya Samsonov has been excellent, providing Toronto every opportunity to figure itself out. The goalie could use a little more help from his friends.
Previous ranking: 3
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: @ DAL (Oct. 29), @ ARI (Oct. 30), vs. PHI (Nov. 1), vs. BOS (Nov. 3)
The Rangers turned in some surprising results of late with losses to both Columbus and San Jose. But below the surface, New York’s underlying numbers don’t suggest catastrophe — they’re a top-five possession team (and dominate the face-off circle), average fewer than 30 shots against per game and more than three goals per game.
Previous ranking: 4
Points percentage: 0.688
Next seven days: vs. NYR (Oct. 29), vs. LA (Nov. 1), @ ARI (Nov. 3)
It’s a surprise that Roope Hintz is a surprise (to some). The center launched into a point-per-game pace this season that followed up on one of the most unheralded 37-goal seasons in the league in 2021-22. While Jake Oettinger (deservedly) draws headlines and Dallas’ excellent overall start to the campaign is great, Hintz’s role in that success shouldn’t be catching anyone off guard.
Previous ranking: 20
Points percentage: 0.625
Next seven days: @ CGY (Oct. 29), vs. NSH (Nov. 1), vs. NJ (Nov. 3)
For once, Edmonton’s success isn’t being driven entirely by just those two players everyone always talks about (Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl). The Oilers have gotten surprisingly consistent contributions up front from their third line, led by Ryan McLeod and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and that bodes well for the team’s direction this season.
Previous ranking: 10
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: vs. MTL (Oct. 29), vs. LA (Oct. 31), vs. NYI (Nov. 3)
The encore to Jordan Binnington‘s truly tumultuous 2021-22 season has been a shockingly strong opening to this new campaign. The Blues’ netminder started 3-1-0, with one shutout and a .936 SV% to his credit. St. Louis believed in Binnington even when he faltered; now the goaltender appears to be proving his mettle all over again.
Previous ranking: 23
Points percentage: 0.571
Next seven days: @ FLA (Oct. 29), @ TB (Nov. 1), vs. VGK (Nov. 3)
The Senators have exhibited an expected depth of scoring talent up front. The real surprise in Ottawa has been their impressively sound defense. It’s not just the Thomas Chabot show, either. Artem Zub has been strong, Jake Sanderson is an emerging star, Erik Brannstrom has bounced back, and even Travis Hamonic is fitting in. No wonder Ottawa is off to an encouraging start.
Previous ranking: 17
Points percentage: 0.571
Next seven days: vs. CHI (Oct. 29), vs. DET (Oct. 31), vs. PIT (Nov. 2)
We knew Rasmus Dahlin would be good. But … this good? Like, leading NHL defensemen in points (9), setting records (as the first blueliner in history to score a goal in five straight games to open a season) and generally dominating one opponent after another? That’s a good surprise Buffalo can get behind.
Previous ranking: 16
Points percentage: 0.571
Next seven days: vs. MIN (Oct. 29), @ BUF (Oct. 31), vs. WSH (Nov. 3)
Detroit had a busy offseason, acquiring free agents who have contributed to the team’s hot start. Elmer Soderblom is an in-house lineup addition who’s been surprisingly effective early on. The rookie is an intimidating presence on the ice, at 6-foot-6, 220 pounds, and uses that size to his advantage (see: Soderblom undressing Kings defenseman Sean Durzi with an alley-oop pass — to himself). Soderblom’s two goals in five games look like just the beginning of his run.
ELMER! Söderblom juggles the puck out of the air and over Durzi, getting around him and drawing a penalty.
This guy is something else. #LGRW pic.twitter.com/W013vX4H5H
— Ryan Hana (@RyanHanaWWP) October 18, 2022
Previous ranking: 26
Points percentage: 0.571
Next seven days: vs. COL (Oct. 28), vs. CBJ (Oct. 30), @ VAN (Nov. 1), @ EDM (Nov. 3)
Jesper Bratt was tied for the league lead in scoring (three goals, 12 points) through seven games. Just like we all predicted. Bratt is the Devils’ surprising standout so far in a start that included potting two goals and an assist in just 13 minutes of ice time against Detroit. That’s some impressive efficiency.
Previous ranking: 18
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: @ NSH (Oct. 29), @ CAR (Oct. 31), vs. VGK (Nov. 1, @ DET (Nov. 3)
The Capitals acquiring free agent goaltender Darcy Kuemper was their big swing of the offseason. Its netted surprisingly mediocre results. Washington is bottom-10 in goals allowed so far (3.43 per game) while Kuemper and his new teammates have worked to find a rhythm. These things can take time, but given Kuemper’s championship pedigree and the veteran-laden lineup around him, it’s been an unusually slow transition.
Previous ranking: 11
Points percentage: 0.444
Next seven days: vs. TOR (Oct. 29), @ STL (Oct. 31), @ DAL (Nov. 1), @ CHI (Nov. 3)
There’s been a surprising ascension in the Kings’ ranks, and his name is Gabriel Vilardi. The 23-year-old had previously struggled to become a full-time NHLer, but that looks to be in the past as Vilardi led L.A. with seven points through seven games out of the gate — which also matched Vilardi’s 25-game point total from a season ago. Onwards and upwards.
Previous ranking: 13
Points percentage: 0.714
Next seven days: vs. CAR (Oct. 29), @ NYR (Nov. 1), @ TOR (Nov. 2)
The Flyers going 3-0-0 out of the gate? Shocker. The surprising backbone of their success? Carter Hart. The netminder’s 4-0-0 start with a .949 SV% and 1.75 GAA powered Philadelphia to a respectable spot in the early-season standings.
Previous ranking: 22
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: @ SJ (Oct. 29), vs. OTT (Nov. 1), vs. CAR (Nov. 3)
Steven Stamkos leading the Lightning with seven goals in seven games? Not a surprise. That Tampa Bay scored only 17 goals total through its first eight games? More shocking. The Lightning offense has failed to catch fire through a below-average start to this season.
Previous ranking: 25
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: @ DET (Oct. 29), @ CHI (Oct. 30), vs. MTL (Nov. 1), vs. SEA (Nov. 3)
The Wild have been a surprising enigma after a 113-point 2021-22 season. Minnesota went 0-3 out of the gate with a rusty-looking Marc-Andre Fleury in net (posting an .847 SV% and 5.25 GAA) while leading the NHL in goals against. Then Fleury rebounded, and the team somewhat followed suit in its next three — with wins over Vancouver and Montreal and an overtime loss to Boston — but what an unexpected roller coaster thus far.
Previous ranking: 14
Points percentage: 0.429
Next seven days: @ CAR (Oct. 28), vs. COL (Oct. 29), @ CHI (Nov. 1), @ STL (Nov. 3)
The Islanders’ inability to score consistently isn’t so surprising given the lack of offseason turnover. Ilya Sorokin‘s difficulties were more shocking. New York’s starter went 1-3-0 to start, with a 2.84 GAA and .908 SV%. Then Sorokin posted a 41-save shutout against the Rangers. Will the real Sorokin please stand up?
Previous ranking: 19
Points percentage: 0.571
Next seven days: @ ARI (Oct. 28), @ VGK (Oct. 30), vs. MTL (Nov. 3)
From the small-sample-size department: When the Jets score four goals, they win. When the Jets score fewer than four goals, they lose. That’s been the surprisingly consistent trend to start their first six games — and is somewhat shocking given the presence of elite netminder Connor Hellebuyck. Let’s see how long it holds.
Previous ranking: 24
Points percentage: 0.375
Next seven days: vs. BOS (Oct. 28), @ NJ (Oct. 30)
A not-so-fun surprise for the Blue Jackets: Not even Johnny Gaudreau could prevent them from being the last team in the NHL this season to score a power play goal (starting the season 0-for-20). Yikes.
Previous ranking: 29
Points percentage: 0.571
Next seven days: @ BUF (Oct. 29), vs. MIN (Oct. 30), vs. NYI (Nov. 1), vs. LA (Nov. 3)
The Blackhawks have been a surprisingly resilient group. Despite a roster depleted of contributors from seasons past, Chicago has managed three come-from-behind victories already. That’s not so bad, and certainly out-paces the low bar of expectations most pundits had for the Blackhawks this season.
Previous ranking: 21
Points percentage: 0.500
Next seven days: @ STL (Oct. 29), @ MIN (Nov. 1), @ WPG (Nov. 3)
The rebuild may be on in Montreal, but the Canadiens’ depth is surprisingly strong already. Sean Monahan and Kirby Dach have elevated Montreal up front even more than expected, while the freshman-heavy back end highlighted by Arber Xhekaj and Kaiden Guhle has been making strong, consistent contributions. That’s a win.
Previous ranking: 15
Points percentage: 0.438
Next seven days: vs. WSH (Oct. 29), @ EDM (Nov. 1), @ CGY (Nov. 3)
It’s early, but seeing Nashville at the bottom of multiple league categories? Shocking. The Predators have consistently blown leads, and rank among the NHL’s worst in goals, shots on net and in special-teams success. Nashville has talent in its depths, that talent just hasn’t come to the forefront.
Previous ranking: 30
Points percentage: 0.444
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Oct. 29), @ CGY (Nov. 1), @ MIN (Nov. 3)
The Kraken appear to be giving Shane Wright a surprisingly limited audition. The rookie averages fewer minutes (6:51 per game) than any other Kraken skater, and he hasn’t had much chance to really get involved. Given the nine-game window Seattle has to decide about Wright’s next move — and the fact Wright could be playing big minutes in with his junior team — it’s an interesting strategy to take.
Previous ranking: 31
Points percentage: 0.333
Next seven days: vs. WPG (Oct. 28), vs. NYR (Oct. 30), vs. FLA (Nov. 1), vs. DAL (Nov. 3)
Arizona averaged more goals (3.17 per game) through their first six games than the following clubs: Florida, Tampa Bay, Toronto and the New York Rangers. Don’t act like you’re not (a little) surprised.
Previous ranking: 32
Points percentage: 0.300
Next seven days: vs. TB (Oct. 29), vs. ANA (Nov. 1), vs. FLA (Nov. 3)
Did anyone have an Erik Karlsson resurgence on their Sharks’ Bingo card? San Jose’s early returns have been iffy, but Karlsson’s shockingly good play has not been. The veteran looks better than he has in years, averaging over 23 minutes of ice time per game, and leading the Sharks in points. Talk about a bright spot.
Previous ranking: 28
Points percentage: 0.250
Next seven days: vs. PIT (Oct. 28), vs. NJ (Nov. 1), vs. ANA (Nov. 3)
The Canucks have been shockingly bad at holding a lead (see: multiple, multi-goal advantages disappeared) during their historically poor 0-5-2 run to open this season. Vancouver was believed to be on the upswing, stocked with maturing young talent, stable goaltending and the right veterans. Surprisingly, nothing has added up yet.
Previous ranking: 27
Points percentage: 0.214
Next seven days: @ VGK (Oct. 28), vs. TOR (Oct. 30), @ SJ (Nov. 1), @ VAN (Nov. 3)
John Gibson has been Anaheim’s saving grace for a few seasons. It’s surprising how often the Ducks still leave him out to dry. Anaheim is top three in goals against (4.50), and Gibson has a below-.900 SV%, but for a team that has some good talent overall, it’s shocking how the Ducks can’t offer more support to their goaltender.
Sports
‘I wasn’t trying to build anything in a lab’: How Jacob deGrom is learning to throw smarter, not harder
SURPRISE, Ariz. — When Jacob deGrom stepped on the mound for his first live batting practice this spring, a voice in his head told him: “All right, I want to strike everybody out.” That instinct had guided deGrom to unimaginable heights, with awards and money and acclaim. It is also who he can no longer be. So deGrom took a breath and reminded himself: “Let’s not do that.”
Nobody in the world has ever thrown a baseball like deGrom at his apex. His combination of fastball velocity, swing-and-miss stuff and pinpoint command led to one of the greatest 90-start stretches in baseball. From the beginning of 2018 to the middle of 2021, he was peak Pedro Martinez with a couple of extra mph — Nolan Ryan’s fastball, Steve Carlton’s slider, Greg Maddux’s precision.
Then his arm could not hold up anymore, and for more than three years, deGrom healed and got hurt, healed and needed Tommy John surgery in June 2023 to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, then healed once more. That delivers him to this moment, in camp with the Texas Rangers, ready to conquer a 162-game season for the first time since 2019 — and reminding himself when to hold back.
The instinct to be all he can be never will go away. But instead, as his efforts at learning to throttle down manifest themselves daily and were particularly evident in those early live ABs, deGrom induced ground balls on early contact and ended his day with a flyout on the second pitch of the at-bat.
DeGrom had blown out his elbow once before, as a minor leaguer in October 2010, and this time he understands his mandate. He is now 36, and nobody has returned to have any sort of substantive career after a third Tommy John, so keeping his arm healthy as he comes back from his second is imperative. This is the last phase of deGrom’s career, and to maximize it, he must change. It does not need to be a wholesale reinvention. For deGrom, it is more an evolution, one to which he accustomed himself by watching video of his past self.
DeGrom at his best simply overwhelmed hitters. At-bats turned into lost causes. He was the best pitcher in the world in 2018, when he threw 217 innings of 1.70 ERA ball and struck out 269 with just 46 walks and 10 home runs allowed. The following year, he dedicated himself to being even more, winning his second Cy Young and proving he was no one-season fluke. DeGrom routinely blew away one hitter, then made the next look like he’d never seen a slider. He painted the plate with the meticulousness of a ceramic artist.
“I look at the best — ’18,” deGrom said of his first Cy Young season. “There were times where I hit 100 or close to it, but I think I sat around 96.”
He did. Ninety-six mph on the dot for his high-spin four-seam fastball. It jumped to 96.9 in 2019, 98.6 in 2020 and 99.2 in 2021. In the 11 games deGrom pitched toward the end of 2022, it was still 98.9 — and then 98.7 before he blew out again.
“I have to look at it like, hey, I can pitch at that velocity [from 2018],” deGrom said. “It is less stress on your body. You get out there and you’re throwing pitches at 100 miles an hour for however many pitches it is — it’s a lot of stress. It’s something that I’m going to look into — using it when I need it, backing off and just trusting that I can locate the ball.”
He had not yet adopted that attitude in 2022, when those 11 starts convinced deGrom to opt out of his contract with the New York Mets, who had drafted him in the ninth round in 2010. Immediately, the Texas Rangers began their pursuit. General manager Chris Young pitched for 13 years in the major leagues and knows how hard it is to be truly great. He grunted to hit 90 with his fastball. Someone who could sit 99 with 248 strikeouts against 19 walks in 156⅓ innings (as deGrom did in the combined pieces of his 2021 and 2022 seasons) and make it look easy is one of a kind. Injury risk be damned, Texas gave deGrom $185 million over five years.
He played the part in his first five starts for Texas. Then he left the sixth with elbow pain. Done for the year. Surgery on June 12 — 11 days after the birth of his third child, Nolan. He carried Nolan around with his left arm while his right was in a brace that would click a degree or two more every day to eventually reteach deGrom to straighten his arm.
He taught himself how to throw again, too, under the watchful eyes of Texas’ training staff and Keith Meister, the noted Tommy John surgeon who is also the Rangers’ team doctor. They wanted to build back the deGrom who scythed lineups — but this time, with decision-making processes guided by proper arm care.
Part of that showed in deGrom’s September cameo last year. His fastball averaged 97.3 mph, and he still managed to look like himself: 1.69 ERA, 14 strikeouts against one walk with one home run allowed in 10⅔ innings. Rather than rush back, deGrom put himself in a position to tackle the offseason. Those innings were enough to psychologically move past the rehabilitative stage and reenter achievement mode. He trained with the same intensity he did in past seasons. The stuff would still be there. While peers were spending the winter immersed in pitch design, deGrom was seeking the version of himself that could marry his inherent deGromness with the sturdiness he embodied the first six years of his career.
“I wasn’t trying to build anything in a lab,” deGrom said. “My arm got a little long a few years ago, so trying to shorten up the arm path a little bit and sync up my mechanics really well is what I’ve been trying to do.”
Rather than jump out in the first start of the spring to prove that heartiness, deGrom took his time. It is a long season. He wants to be there in the end. His goal for this year is straightforward: “Make as many starts as I can.” If that means throwing live at-bats a little longer than his teammates, that’s what he’ll do. Ultimately, deGrom is the one who defines his comfort, and he went so long without it that its priority is notable.
So if that means shorter starts early in the season, it won’t surprise anyone. There is no official innings limit on deGrom. The Rangers, though, are going to monitor his usage, and he doesn’t plan to use those limited outings to amp up his velocity. This is about being smart and considering more than raw pitch counts or innings totals.
“I think it’s going to be a monitor of stressful innings versus not,” deGrom said. “You have those games where you go five innings, you have 75 pitches, but you’ve got runners all over the place, so those are stressful. Whereas you cruise and you end up throwing 100 pitches and you had one or two runners. It’s like, OK, those don’t seem to be as stressful. So I think it’s monitoring all of that and just playing it by ear how the season goes.”
That approach carried into deGrom’s spring debut Saturday against the Kansas City Royals. He averaged 97 mph on his fastball, topping out at 98. His slider remained near its previous levels at 90. He flipped in a pair of curveballs for strikes, too, just as a reminder that he’s liable to buckle your knees at any given moment. On 31 pitches, deGrom threw 21 strikes, didn’t allow a baserunner and punched out three, including reigning MVP runner-up Bobby Witt Jr. on a vicious 91.5-mph slider.
On his last batter of the day, deGrom started with a slider well off the plate inducing a swing-and-miss from Tyler Gentry, then followed with a low-and-not-quite-as-outside slider Gentry spit on. When a curveball that was well off the plate was called a strike, deGrom saw an opportunity. This is the art of pitching — of weighing the count, what a hitter has seen, how to take advantage of an umpire’s zone. He dotted a 97.3-mph fastball on the exact horizontal plane as the curveball and elevated it to the top of the strike zone, a nasty bit of sorcery that only a handful of pitchers on the planet can execute at deGrom’s level. Gentry stared at it, plate umpire Pete Talkington punched him out and deGrom strode off the mound, beta test complete.
“It’s always a thing of trusting your stuff,” deGrom said. “It’s one of the hardest things to do in this game, and part of it’s the fear of failure. You throw a pitch at 93 when you could have thrown it at 98 and it’s a homer, you’re like, ‘Why did I do that?’ So that’s the part that gets tough. You still have to go out there and trust your stuff, know that you can locate and change speeds, and still get outs not full tilt the whole time.”
Day by day, deGrom inches closer to that. He’ll get a little extra time, with the likelihood the Rangers will hold him back until the season’s fifth game, just to build in rest before the grind of a new season. He’s ready. It has been too long since he has been on the field regularly, contributing, searching for the best version of himself. It might look a little different. And if it does, that’s a good thing.
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