Biggest surprise? What comes next? What we’ve learned about Astros-Phillies World Series so far
Two games into the 2022 World Series, there has been no shortage of drama on the field in Houston.
First, it was the underdog Phillies storming back from a 5-0 deficit in Game 1 and handing the Astros their first loss of the postseason thanks to J.T. Realmuto‘s game-winning 10th-inning long ball.
Then, it was Houston’s turn to remind everyone why they were such a heavy favorite to begin with by scoring three first-inning runs against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler in a series-tying 5-2 Game 2 victory.
With a travel day Sunday before the Series shifts to Philadelphia for three games beginning Monday night, we asked ESPN MLB experts Bradford Doolittle, Joon Lee, Jeff Passan and Jesse Rogers to break down what they’ve seen so far and what we should expect from here.
What has surprised you most about the first two games?
Lee: The continued struggles of Justin Verlander in the World Series. For someone who has such a storied career, it’s truly remarkable that the Astros ace’s 6.07 ERA is the worst among all starting pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched in the World Series. His inability to hold the lead opened the door for Philadelphia to beat the juggernaut Astros in Friday’s opener, and if the Phillies end up raising the trophy, that will have set the tone.
Rogers: Aaron Nola and Wheeler getting knocked around to the tune of 10 runs (nine earned) in their two starts. Wheeler, in particular, left too many pitches over the plate in the two innings he gave up runs, and neither pitcher looked very sharp. The Phillies need their two aces to be much better in their next outings.
Passan: The impermeability of the Phillies’ bullpen. Entering the Series, Phillies relievers were good enough — a 3.19 ERA, 53 strikeouts in 42⅓ postseason innings — but nothing compared to the Astros, whose bullpen allowed three runs in 33 innings, all on solo home runs. Between the 5⅓ shutout innings relieving Nola in Game 1 and three more scoreless picking up Wheeler in Game 2, Philadelphia’s pen is performing like a weapon. Whether it can do so deeper into the Series may make or break the Phillies.
Doolittle: I had wondered how the Phillies would navigate around the Yordan Alvarez/Kyle Tucker section of the Houston lineup late in close games once Jose Alvarado was spent. Rob Thomson was way ahead of me by using starter Ranger Suarez in the first game as a second bullpen lefty. But Suarez will be starting Game 4, presumably taking him off the table as a relief option in either of the next two games, so my curiosity remains.
Was the Phillies’ Game 1 victory a mirage, or will they hang with the Astros from here?
Doolittle: It wasn’t a mirage — unlikely as it is for the Phillies, or any team, to overcome a five-run deficit in a World Series. The Astros are still in good shape, but as long as the Phillies’ bullpen keeps answering the bell, we should be in for more tight games and some dramatic moments. Houston is still favored, but it’s a best-of-five now and Philly has the home advantage after the split.
Lee: Even though I think the Astros are going to win this Series, I would be really surprised if the Phillies don’t pull out at least one, maybe two games during their three games at home. Philadelphia’s lineup made things interesting in the eighth inning of Game 2, making it tighter than the final box score would suggest — and I expect this to continue into Games 3, 4 and 5.
Passan: This series has all the hallmarks of a long one: a split to start, offenses capable of getting conflagrant at any moment and bullpens that are performing at an elite level. Of the 59 World Series to start with a split, 45 of them went to at least a sixth game, according to ESPN Stats and Info. And if this series follows suit and returns to Houston, it’s bound to be a coin toss between two very talented, very motivated teams.
Rogers: The Phillies can definitely hang with Houston — I thought that before the Series — especially considering they’re going home for three games. After Game 2, players in both clubhouses were discussing the Philly crowd and the electricity it’ll bring. Houston won’t be intimidated, but the Phillies won’t get swept there, either — no way. All to say: It’s going to be a long Series.
How do you expect the atmosphere to change now that the Series is headed to Philly?
Rogers: With all due respect to Astros fans — and it could be due to their building’s acoustics — it is likely to be louder and more chaotic in outdoor Citizens Bank Park than it was in indoor Minute Maid Park. Phillies fans have been a difference-maker, according to their players, for a team that has gone 5-0 at home this postseason. It’s going to be wild in Philadelphia for these next three games.
Lee: Astros fans have been loud and rowdy during the World Series, but Phillies fans are thirsty for their first championship since 2008. Between the Phillies’ success and the Eagles’ strong start, Philadelphia has a lot to cheer about right now, and I expect that energy to transfer over. And to give you some anecdotal evidence of how rowdy this Phillies crowd could get: A friend from college sprained his ankle while celebrating Rhys Hoskins‘ third-inning homer in Game 5 of the NLCS and stayed the rest of the game. “I’ll smash my other foot if it locks in a title.” Expect that kind of energy for Game 3.
Doolittle: More people rooting for the Phillies? It’ll be a different vibe and a wild one. Cooler weather. No option to close a roof. This shouldn’t be a huge factor, though. The Astros have a core of players who have won plenty of postseason games on the road, including the World Series. Houston has actually been more successful away from home during the Fall Classic during this current window of winning.
Passan: The Phillies are the only team in sports whose nickname directly descends from the name of the city, and that city happens to be populated by people who will tattoo the Phillie Phanatic around their bellybutton. So it’s no surprise that the get-in price for Game 3 is more than $700. If for some reason you still think Citizens Bank Park isn’t going to be the most rowdy, festive, ridiculous joint this postseason, well, you’re probably from Houston.
Who is your World Series MVP so far — and will he take home the award in the end?
Doolittle: Seems pretty wide open. I don’t think anyone has impacted one of the wins more than Realmuto in Game 1 or Framber Valdez in Game 2. I’d probably split the vote between them right now. Then I’d point out that Jose Altuve is heating up and will probably end up winning it at the end.
Rogers: Valdez. He came along at the right moment for the Astros after they dropped Game 1. Imagine being down 2-0 then going to Philadelphia — this Series would probably be over. I believe Valdez will win it in the end as well. He still has another great outing in him even after throwing 104 pitches Saturday night.
Lee: For now, Realmuto. If the Phillies are able to win the World Series, it will be because they were able to take one of the first two games in Houston — and that does not happen without the Phillies’ slugging catcher.
Passan: Generally speaking, positional adjustments are far more important over a large span of games. But when it comes to catcher, the demands they face in a short series — especially of immense consequence like the one that crowns the champion — need to be weighed heavily. Which means that as brilliant as Valdez was in Game 2, Realmuto almost single-handedly winning Game 1 and playing his typically excellent baseball in Game 2 makes him the choice. He’s not a bad bet for the rest of the Series, either.
Would you like to revise your original World Series prediction?
Doolittle: Astros in 6? Seems about right. Haven’t seen anything that would make me change my mind.
Lee: The Phillies have had an incredible playoff run, but I still think the talent of this Astros team will win out in the end.
Passan: Ask me after Game 4.
Rogers: I had the Astros in 7, and as much as I like the Phillies’ mojo, Houston’s pitching will be the difference over the long Series.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will reveal its first ranking at 8 p.m. ET on Tuesday on ESPN, giving us our first look at what the 12-member group thinks about the playoff pecking order after 10 weeks.
It’s far from over, as teams still have ample opportunities to build — or bust — their résumés.
Separation, though, is starting to occur, and the Bubble Watch is tracking it for you. Teams with Would be in status below are featured in this week’s top 12 projection, a snapshot of what the selection committee’s ranking will look like when it’s released later Tuesday. For each Power 4 conference, we’ve listed teams as Last team in and First team out. These are the true bubble teams hovering around inclusion. Teams labeled Still in the mix haven’t been eliminated, but have work to do. A team that is Out will have to wait until next year.
The 12-member selection committee doesn’t always agree with the Allstate Playoff Predictor, so the following categories are based on historical knowledge of the group’s tendencies, plus what each team has done to date.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of bids they’re expected to receive, ranked from the most to least. Check back Tuesday night after the rankings reveal show for an updated bubble watch that will reflect the selection committee’s latest ranking.
Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5
Bracket
SEC
Would be in: Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M
Last team in: Ole Miss. The Rebels are in a safe spot, but they’re not a lock if they don’t run the table. With remaining games against The Citadel, Florida and at rival Mississippi State, there’s no possibility of a “good loss” remaining, and historically, losing in November has been far more damaging to playoff hopes than losing earlier in the season. Ole Miss shouldn’t lose; it has at least a 72% chance of winning each of its remaining games and has the seventh-best chance in the country (43%) to win out. If an upset occurred, though, the Rebels would join the two-loss club and might not win a debate with other two-loss teams that had more statement wins — and didn’t lose to an unranked opponent. The Rebels’ remaining schedule strength is No. 56 in the country. With a second loss, Ole Miss would be banking on wins against Oklahoma, Tulane and LSU to impress the committee enough for an at-large bid.
First team out: Texas. The Longhorns got a significant boost this week in part because three teams above them fell out — Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami — but also because they earned another CFP top 25 win against the Commodores. The head-to-head win against Oklahoma also could help them with the committee. If Texas is ranked No. 11 or No. 12 by the committee, though — and the ACC and Group of 5 champions are outside of the committee’s top 12 — the Longhorns would be elbowed out during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions, which are guaranteed spots in the playoff.
Still in the mix: Missouri, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt. The Sooners earned a huge résumé boost with their win at Tennessee and have what should be a CFP top 25 win against Michigan. For two-loss Vandy, a close road loss to Texas isn’t an eliminator. Where the committee ranks Tennessee after its third loss will impact both of their résumés as a common opponent. Missouri’s lone losses were to Alabama and Vanderbilt, but the Tigers don’t have anything yet to compensate for those. That could change Saturday with a win against Texas A&M.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Tennessee
Big Ten
Would be in: Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon
Last team in: Oregon. The one-loss Ducks have a more challenging second half of the season, and the committee is about to learn how good this team truly is. So far, Oregon’s best win was Sept. 13 at Northwestern. The Ducks have been passing the eye test, but their opponents have a winning percentage of 47.2% — ranked No. 116 in the country. The committee will still respect the double-overtime win at Penn State, but also recognize that the Nittany Lions weren’t playing at an elite level even with James Franklin on the sideline. With road trips to Iowa and Washington — both respectable two-loss teams — and a Nov. 22 home game against USC, Oregon has a chance to further entrench itself in the top 12 or tumble out.
First team out: USC. The Trojans’ two losses were on the road to respectable teams (Illinois and Notre Dame) by a combined 12 points. Their best win was Oct. 11 against Michigan, but the Trojans could really boost their résumé this month and completely flip the script with Oregon if they can win in Eugene on Nov. 22. According to ESPN Analytics, USC has the fourth-best chance in the Big Ten to reach the playoff (17.3%), just ahead of Michigan. The only game they’re not favored to win is Nov. 22 at Oregon. If they can pull off that upset for a 10-2 finish, the committee would definitely consider the Trojans for an at-large spot.
Still in the mix: Iowa, Michigan, Washington. These teams could be ranked by the committee Tuesday night, but Michigan will probably have the shortest climb into the conversation. The head-to-head loss to USC will be a problem in both the Big Ten standings and the CFP ranking, but if USC loses again and their records are no longer comparable, it can be overcome. Then, there’s a head-to-head loss to Oklahoma. Still, Michigan has a 13.2% chance to reach the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Wolverines still have a chance to beat Ohio State and earn one of the best wins in the country en route to a 10-2 finish.
Out: Illinois, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, Wisconsin
Big 12
Would be in: BYU, Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. If Texas Tech loses to BYU on Saturday but still wins the Big 12, it’s a CFP lock. The problem is that if the Red Raiders lose a second conference game, they will need some help to reach the Big 12 championship. So, a loss to BYU could be devastating to their conference and CFP hopes. If the Red Raiders beat BYU on Saturday, but lose to the Cougars in the Big 12 championship game, Texas Tech would still have a chance at an at-large bid as the Big 12 runner-up. The Red Raiders would be able to claim a win over the eventual Big 12 champs, which would be a much-needed boost to their résumé. It would depend in part on how the game unfolded. The Cougars are the Red Raiders’ only remaining opponent with a winning record, as Texas Tech ends the season against UCF (4-4) and at West Virginia (3-6).
First team out: Utah. The Utes are in a tricky spot because their two losses are to the Big 12’s best teams — BYU and Texas Tech. Utah still has the third-best chance to reach the Big 12 title game (22.8%), but will need some help to get there. Utah’s best wins are against Arizona State and Cincinnati, but the Utes have a hard time earning an at-large bid without beating at least one of the best teams in their league.
Still in the mix: Cincinnati. The Bearcats are included here because they still have an 18% chance to reach the Big 12 title game, according to ESPN Analytics. They have only one league loss, which gives them some slim hope. Their other loss was in the season opener to Nebraska.
Out: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia
ACC
Would be in: Virginia
Last team in: Virginia. Like Georgia Tech, Virginia also has a road loss to NC State as its lone blemish, but it was an early four-point loss, while the Yellow Jackets lost to the Wolfpack by double digits. Virginia also has a head-to-head win against Louisville. That’s the Hoos’ best win of the season, and likely their only one against a CFP top 25 opponent. That’s why it’s unlikely Virginia is ranked in the top 12 in the initial CFP top 25. Virginia would still be in, though, if it wins the ACC even if it’s ranked outside the committee’s top 12 — just like three-loss Clemson was last year.
First team out: Louisville. The Cardinals lost at home in overtime to Virginia on Oct. 4, but earned a statement win Oct. 17 at Miami. Louisville will probably have only one win this season against a CFP top 25 team, which will make earning an at-large bid difficult. Louisville’s best shot would be to run the table, have teams above the Cardinals lose, and win the ACC. Louisville has a 10.6% chance of winning the ACC, fourth best behind Georgia Tech, Miami and Virginia.
Still in the mix: Georgia Tech, Miami. The odds of earning an at-large bid dropped significantly, but any team that has a chance to win its league will have a chance to lock up a playoff spot, and they’re both in contention to play for the ACC title. Georgia Tech has the best chance to reach the ACC championship game (72.3%), followed by Virginia (51.1%) and Miami (28.5%), according to ESPN Analytics. Georgia Tech still has the highest chance to win out (40.5%) and win the league (41.2%).
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, North Carolina, NC State, Pitt, SMU, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Independent
Would be in: Notre Dame. The playoff stars aligned for Notre Dame in Week 10, when Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech and Miami all lost, opening the door for the 6-2 Irish to move back into the top 10 after beating Boston College. The question is whether the selection committee will honor Miami’s season-opening 27-24 win against Notre Dame because they have the same record. It’s one of several tiebreakers, but not weighted, and if the committee deems the Irish the better team and not comparable now, Notre Dame can be ranked higher. Notre Dame has the best chance of any team in the country to run the table (68.3%), but the Nov. 15 trip to Pitt will be difficult. The Panthers, winners of five straight, are playing well and have a bye week to prepare for the Irish. The Irish’s playoff position will remain tenuous until the clock runs out at Stanford and they’re 10-2.
Group of 5
Would be in: Memphis. As the projected winner of the American this week, Memphis would earn a playoff spot as the committee’s fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. The Tigers’ Oct. 25 win against South Florida was critical in the league race, but the loss to 3-5 UAB is an ink stain on their résumé that can be overcome with a conference title. Memphis has at least a 57% chance to win each of its remaining games, according to ESPN Analytics.
Still in the mix: South Florida, North Texas, James Madison, San Diego State. The committee would consider South Florida’s head-to-head wins against Boise State and North Texas.
Bracket
Based on our weekly projection, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Indiana
No. 3 Alabama (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas A&M
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Virginia (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Notre Dame at No. 7 BYU (Big 12 champ)
No. 9 Texas Tech at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 Texas A&M
No. 11 Virginia/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Alabama
No. 10 Notre Dame/No. 7 BYU winner vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Texas Tech/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Ohio State
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