Deeply divided Sao Paolo a perfect metaphor for Brazil’s contentious election
There’s a Gotham City-esque feel to the towering skyscrapers that dominate the skyline in every direction as far as the eye can see.
Sao Paulo is a megacity.
It’s a bustling financial hub, home to over 12 million people. The city proper is the most populous in the Americas, the western and southern hemispheres.
It’s the largest Portuguese-speaking city in the world – and that includes Portugal.
Sao Paulo has incredible wealth and dreadful poverty.
It is a deeply divided place. And is the perfect metaphor for Brazil‘s presidential election that is tearing the country apart.
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Across the country they’re voting in the second round of this election after neither the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, nor his main opponent Lula da Silva secured the vital 50% plus one vote needed for victory earlier this month.
The country is on a knife’s edge. It’s impossible to tell where this is going.
Both candidates are populists in their own ways.
Jair Bolsonaro is often compared to Donald Trump, and he certainly apes his United States’ buddy’s approach to faith, gender issues, gun ownership, and human rights – and appears to simultaneously bask in abject rudeness with a tenuous adherence to fact if it doesn’t suit his personal agenda.
Like Trump, he and his advisers have been casting the election as rigged against them.
There is a huge trade in election merchandise
This week his 26-year-old son Flavio Bolsonaro said his father is “the victim of the largest electoral fraud ever seen”, though they’ve offered no evidence.
And if Bolsonaro does win, that allegation will probably be dropped instantly.
He could win, the polls are neck and neck.
There is fear amongst Lula da Silva’s supporters that they lost momentum after the first round, that the polls had given them an inflated sense of confidence, and that the election result might not go their way.
Lula, a former president, is bidding to stage a remarkable comeback to the top of the political ladder.
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Confidence and exuberance at Lula da Silva rally in Brazil
Arrested in 2018 on corruption charges, later quashed, he was consistently the most popular political leader in the world with approval ratings in the 80s and 90s during his time in office from 2003 until 2011.
Many thought he could win the presidency in the first round on 1 October. He didn’t, and worse for him and his party, President Bolsonaro closed the gap to a handful of points.
Now everything is to play for.
The polling companies in Brazil are very sophisticated, but their results have been questioned by many.
There is a huge trade in election merchandise here; towels, flags, buttons, and caps for both candidates are sold on street corners and outside virtually every subway station and at newsagents.
Jair Bolsonaro is often compared to Donald Trump
Saulo Adriel and his brother set up store on Paulista Avenue, this city’s equivalent of Oxford Street, and he’s doing a big trade in presidential merch.
Hanging on the traffic lights next to a pedestrian crossing, Saulo has a chalkboard where he keeps a running tally which candidate’s merchandise is selling the best.
He told me after the first round it was literally neck and neck, but today, Lula appeared to be well ahead. That could be because he was about to hold a rally on the same street.
The real point is Saulo says he’s been totalling his figures up, and it appears to be too close to call.
“I don’t know who is going to win anymore. This is the most polarised election in history, I guess,” he told me while overseeing more sales.
“I think there will be 500,000 to one million votes difference between them, though I can’t say, literally, who is going to win.”
Saulo Adriel and his brother set up store on Paulista Avenue
While I spoke to him, he updated the chalkboard with another two sales for Lula.
Still, it’s so close he’s investing his money on both of them.
“My brother and I have already invested in 1,000 Bolsonaro supporter badges and 1,000 Lula badges, so it’s fifty-fifty, you know?”
The two candidates have finished their final election rallies.
President Bolsonaro took to his motorcycle in Belo Horizonte in Brazil’s south, and was greeted by thousands of adoring supporters, some also on their motorcycles.
Belo Horizonte is a bellwether state that usually predicts the eventual winner.
On Sao Paulo’s Paulista Avenue, Lula da Silva was greeted by huge numbers of partying supporters as he took to a cavalcade through the city.
In the crowd we met a group of university professors who were there dressed in white, as opposed to the party’s usual red.
Lula da Silva merchandise for sale
They explained the rally had been divided into a series of colours, and white indicated that they were there demonstrating for the protection of democratic principles and peace.
Marcos Oliveira, a professor at the University of Rio de Janeiro, told me he believes the behaviour of Donald Trump and his supporters after his election loss has been co-opted by Bolsonaro’s team, and threatens Brazilian democracy.
“The ideology behind Bolsonaro’s administration is the very same one that was built for Donald Trump,” he said.
“So, the structure behind it and the narratives are exactly the same, the difference is we know now in advance because of what happened with the elections in the United States, it prepared the groundwork for us to strike back, so we need to have this in mind.”
Standing next to him, his friend Professor Ariel Silva from Sao Paulo, nodded in agreement.
Marcos Oliveira (L) and his friend professor Ariel Silva
“Their strategy is very similar to the strategy of Trump in the last election, so we more or less have an idea what to expect, but we are here to fight for democracy,” Silva added.
On the final day then, either could win, it seems to be that close.
The problem for Brazil is that the divisions are so deep any reconciliation between the two sides will prove incredibly difficult.
World
Trump criticises Putin after potentially ‘historic’ meeting with Zelenskyy before Pope’s funeral
Donald Trump has criticised Vladimir Putin and suggested a shift in his stance towards the Russian president after a meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the Pope’s funeral.
The Ukrainian president said the one-on-one talks could prove to be “historic” after pictures showed him sitting opposite Mr Trump, around two feet apart, in the large marble hall inside St Peter’s Basilica.
The US president said he doubted his Russian counterpart’s willingness to end the war after leaving Rome after the funeral of Pope Francis at the Vatican.
Follow live updates: 200,000 mourn at Vatican
In a post on his Truth Social platform, he said “there was no reason” for the Russian president “to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns, over the last few days”.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
He added: “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along, and has to be dealt with differently, through ‘Banking’ or ‘Secondary Sanctions?’ Too many people are dying!!!”
The meeting between the US and Ukrainian leaders was their first face-to-face encounter since a very public row in the Oval Office in February.
Mr Zelenskyy said he had a good meeting with Mr Trump in which they talked about the defence of the Ukrainian people, a full and unconditional ceasefire, and a durable and lasting peace that would prevent the war restarting.
Other images released by the Ukrainian president’s office show Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron were present for part of the talks, which were described as “positive” by the French presidency.
Mr Zelenskyy‘s spokesman said the meeting lasted for around 15 minutes and he and Mr Trump had agreed to hold further discussions later on Saturday.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet in the Basilica
But the US president left Rome for Washington on Air Force One soon after the funeral without any other talks having taken place.
The Ukrainian president’s office said there was no second meeting in Rome because of the tight schedule of both leaders, although he had separate discussions with Mr Starmer and Mr Macron.
The French president said in a post on X “Ukraine is ready for an unconditional ceasefire” and that a so-called coalition of the willing, led by the UK and France, would continue working to achieve a lasting peace.
There was applause from some of the other world leaders in attendance at the Vatican when Mr Zelenskyy walked out of St Peter’s Basilica after stopping in front of the pontiff’s coffin to pay his respects.
Donald Trump and the Ukrainian president met for the first time since their Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
Sir Tony Brenton, the former British ambassador to Russia, said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and the Ukrainian leader.
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine.
Professor Father Francesco Giordano told Sky News the meeting is being called “Pope Francis’s miracle” by members of the clergy, adding: “There’s so many things that happened today – it was just overwhelming.”
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Mr Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
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Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish armed forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening.
“The nature of the incident indicates that Russia is testing the readiness of our air defence systems,” they said in a post on X.
On an extraordinary day, remarkable pictures on the margins that capture what may be a turning point for the world.
In a corner of St Peter’s Basilica before the funeral of Pope Francis, the leaders of America and Ukraine sit facing each other in two solitary chairs.
They look like confessor and sinner except we cannot tell which one is which.
Leaning forward hands together in their laps, Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy stare at each other in one photo.
In another, the Ukrainian president seems to be remonstrating with the US president. This is their first encounter since their infamous bust-up in the Oval Office.
The two leaders held talks before attending the Pope’s funeral
Other pictures show the moment their French and British counterparts introduced the two men. There is a palpable sense of nervousness in the way the leaders engage.
We do not know what the two presidents said in their brief meeting.
But in the mind of the Ukrainian leader will be the knowledge President Trump has this week said America will reward Russia for its unprovoked brutal invasion of his country, under any peace deal.
Mr Trump has presented Ukraine and Russia with a proposal and ultimatum so one-sided it could have been written in the Kremlin.
Kyiv must surrender the land Russia has taken by force, Crimea forever, the rest at least for now. And it must submit to an act of extortion, a proposed deal that would hand over half its mineral wealth effectively to America.
The world leaders shared a moment before the service
Afterwards, Zelenskyy said it had been a good meeting that could turn out to be historic “if we reach results together”.
They had talked, he said, about the defence of Ukraine, a full and unconditional ceasefire and a durable and lasting peace that will prevent a war restarting.
The Trump peace proposal includes only unspecified security guarantees for Ukraine from countries that do not include the US. It rules out any membership of Ukraine.
Ukraine’s allies are watching closely to see if Mr Trump will apply any pressure on Vladimir Putin, let alone punish him for recent bloody attacks on Ukraine.
Or will he simply walk away if the proposal fails, blaming Ukrainian intransigence, however outrageously, before moving onto a rapprochement with Moscow.
If he does, America’s role as guarantor of international security will be seen effectively as over.
This could be the week we see the world order as we have known it since the end of the Second World War buried, as well as a pope.
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