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An aerial view of Phillips 66 oil refinery is seen in Linden, New Jersey, United States on May 11, 2022.

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A perfect storm is taking place in the diesel market, with dwindling diesel reserves, a drought on the Mississippi River pushing more product to rail and truck, and a possible rail strike leading to a surge in prices that is expected to continue.

Diesel prices have increased by 33% for November deliveries.

“The national average price for diesel today is $5.30 per gallon and is expected to go up 15 to 20 cents in the next few weeks,” said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, LLC.

Reserves for diesel this time of year have not been this low since 1951, with the greatest shortfall in the Northeast region including New York and New England.

“This is not only constricting the ability of farmers to export the soybeans and grain they grow but also to receive the fuel and fertilizer they need to operate,” said Mike Steenhoek executive director of the Soy Transportation Coalition of the low water conditions that have turned the Mississippi River from a multi-lane interstate to a two-lane highway.

“Now adding insult to injury is the increased uncertainty that railroads will be able to provide an effective lifeline during this critical time. It’s a vivid reminder that it is not enough to produce a crop or have demand for that crop. Having a reliable supply chain that connects supply with demand is also essential for farmers to be successful,” Steenhoek said.

Two rail unions recently voted down a labor deal needed to avert a national strike in the coming months.

East Coast refineries operating at max capacity

Diesel inventories in the New York/New England markets are facing an acute crisis, down over 50% since last year and at the lowest level since 1990, according to Lipow.

Lipow said East Coast refineries are making as much diesel as they can and dependent on tankers and barges for supply, any weather delay causes a terminal to run out of product..

According to the EIA, East Coast refineries operated at 100% capacity in June and July.

“Last week, they operated at 102% of capacity,” Lipow said. “No more supply is forthcoming from the four East Coast refineries.”

Diesel fuel and heating oil are the problem children of the petroleum complex, says Again Capital's Kilduff

New England’s diesel supply issues were made worse when a Canadian refinery in Newfoundland shut down in 2020 as the pandemic impacted on demand.

The Midwest is also seeing supply constraints, pushing up costs for farmers.

“In visiting with a number of farmers, the consensus, of course, is that diesel costs are one more incursion into profitability,” Steenhoek said. “As far as getting supplies, it looks like those areas most dependent upon the river are experiencing the biggest challenge. A couple of farmers told me diesel supply via their local vendor is day to day.” 

Jones Act restrictions on foreign vessels

In order for the Northeast to receive more diesel, the fuel needs to be imported from another country or a tanker from the Gulf Coast, but that is not allowed because of the Jones Act,  also known as the Merchant Marine Act of 1920, which prohibits a foreign vessel from transporting all goods between two U.S. ports.

“The Jones Act requires all cargo transported between U.S. ports be carried on ships that are U.S. flagged and built, and mostly owned and crewed by Americans,” said Captain Adil Ashiq, United States Western region executive for MarineTraffic.

According to MarineTraffic, the 56 Jones Act tankers are being used. One way to add more supply quickly is for the Department of Homeland Security to temporarily waive the act for foreign vessels to move the fuel. The Jones Act was last waived for a tanker filled with diesel from the Gulf to go to hurricane-stricken Puerto Rico where the energy was needed for power generators.

As a result of the small quantity of U.S.-owned and operated tankers available for energy transport, the price to book a Jones Act tanker is about double that of a foreign-flagged tanker. For example, a Jones Act tanker carrying 300,000 barrels of diesel from Houston to Boston costs approximately 16 cents per gallon. If the Jones Act was waived, a foreign flag tanker carrying the same amount of fuel and heading to the identical location is estimated to cost half, 8 cents per gallon. This 8-cent per gallon difference translates into a $1 million savings per tanker. This is one of the reasons why energy traders favor using foreign flag tankers versus Jones Act tankers.

“If the [Biden] administration wants to replenish New England gasoline or distillate inventories at the expense of exports, they need to waive the Jones Act for refined products loading on the Gulf Coast for delivery to New York, New Jersey, and New England,” Lipow said. “Unfortunately, I don’t think they will do it until it is too late.”

Traders profit, Russia ban looms

Traders are diverting tankers away from Europe to the U.S. because the price of U.S. diesel is now higher than in Europe so they can make a larger profit. So far, two tankers have arrived and unloaded.

According to MarineTraffic, the tanker Thundercat was originally destined for the Netherlands after being loaded in the Middle East with about 650,000 barrels (the equivalent of 27 million gallons) of diesel. It went to New York. Another tanker, Proteus Jessica, loaded in the Singapore area with a similar diesel supply also headed to New York.

For regions including New England, competition with Europe for diesel supplies will intensify next year when an EU ban on Russian refined product purchases is implemented, Lipow said. Diesel exports are of particular interest with the date of February 5, 2023, when the EU sanctions on Russian refined oil products begin, said BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen, adding that 90% of the EU’s import volumes are diesel.

“The EU must replace on average 2 million tons of diesel imports from Russia,” Rasmussen said. “In addition, the International Energy Agency has estimated that the EU’s demand for refined products will increase by 300,000-500,000 barrels per day during winter to meet heating demands.”

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Oil giant BP is seen as a prime takeover target. Is a blockbuster mega-merger in the cards?

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April 15, 2025

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Oil giant BP is seen as a prime takeover target. Is a blockbuster mega-merger in the cards?

BP logo is seen at a gas station in this illustration photo taken in Poland on March 15, 2025.

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Oil giant BP has been thrust into the spotlight as a prime takeover candidate — but energy analysts question whether any of the likeliest suitors will rise to the occasion.

Britain’s beleaguered energy giant, which holds its annual general meeting on Thursday, has recently sought to resolve something of an identity crisis by launching a fundamental reset.

Seeking to rebuild investor confidence, BP in February pledged to slash renewable spending and boost annual expenditure on its core business of oil and gas. CEO Murray Auchincloss has said that the pivot is starting to attract “significant interest” in the firm’s non-core assets.

BP’s green strategy U-turn follows a protracted period of underperformance relative to its industry peers, with its depressed share price reigniting speculation of a prospective tie-up with domestic rival Shell. U.S. oil giants Exxon Mobil and Chevron have also been touted as possible suitors for the £54.75 billion ($71.61 billion) oil major.

Shell declined to comment on the speculation. Spokespersons for BP, Exxon and Chevron did not respond to a request for comment when contacted by CNBC.

“Certainly, BP is a potential takeover target — no doubt about that,” Maurizio Carulli, energy and materials analyst at Quilter Cheviot, told CNBC by video call.

“I would conceptualize the question of ‘will Shell bid for BP’ in the more general consolidation that it is happening in the resources sector, both oil but also mining — particularly in the past year a lot of companies thought that to buy was better than to build,” he added.

A Shell logo in Austin, Texas.

Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images

In the energy sector, for example, Exxon Mobil completed its $60 billion purchase of Pioneer Natural Resources in May last year, while Chevron still seeks to acquire Hess for $53 billion. The latter agreement remains shrouded in legal uncertainty, however, with an arbitration hearing scheduled for next month.

In the mining space, market speculation kicked into overdrive at the start of the year following reports of a potential tie-up between industry giants Rio Tinto and Glencore. Both companies declined to comment at the time.

Never say never, right? I think even Exxon-Chevron in the depth of the pandemic held talks so I think that would have been even wilder to say.

Allen Good

Director of equity research at Morningstar

Quilter Cheviot’s Carulli named Chevron as a potential suitor for BP, particularly if the U.S. energy giant’s pursuit of Hess falls through.

Speculation about a potential merger between Shell and BP, meanwhile, is far from new. Carulli said that while the rumors have some merit, a prospective deal would likely trigger antitrust concerns.

Perhaps more importantly, Carulli added that a move to acquire BP would conflict with Shell’s steadfast commitment to capital discipline under CEO Wael Sawan.

‘An existential crisis’

“Never say never, right? I think even Exxon-Chevron in the depth of the pandemic held talks so I think that would have been even wilder to say,” Allen Good, director of equity research at Morningstar, told CNBC by telephone.

“I wouldn’t take anything off on the table. You know, oil and gas is facing an existential crisis. Now, views differ on how soon that crisis will come to head. I think we’re still decades away,” Good said.

For Shell, Morningstar’s Good said that any pursuit of BP would likely be an attempt to merge the two British peers, as opposed to an outright acquisition — although he said he doesn’t expect such a prospect to materialize in the near term.

The sun sets behind burning gas flares at the Dora (Daura) Oil Refinery Complex in Baghdad on December 22, 2024.

Ahmad Al-rubaye | Afp | Getty Images

Asked about the likelihood of Chevron seeking to purchase BP if a deal to acquire Hess collapses, Morningstar’s Good said he couldn’t rule it out.

“BP certainly doesn’t have the growth prospects that Hess does, but you could get a situation where, again, like I said with Shell, you’d have Chevron acquiring BP, stripping out a lot of costs, certainly the headquarters would no longer be in London … but it doesn’t address the growth concerns ex-Permian for Chevron. So, in that case, I would be a little skeptical,” Good said.

“The issues these companies are facing are to please shareholders, and the two ways to do that really are to reduce costs and return cash to shareholders. So if you can continue to lean into that model somehow, then that’s the probably the way to do it,” he added.

What next for BP?

Michele Della Vigna, head of EMEA natural resources research at Goldman Sachs, described BP’s recent strategic reset as “very wise” and “thoughtful,” but acknowledged that it may not have gone far enough for an activist investor.

U.S. hedge fund Elliott Management has reportedly built a near 5% stake to become one of BP’s largest shareholders. Activist investor Follow This, meanwhile, recently pushed for investors to vote against Helge Lund’s reappointment as chair at BP’s upcoming shareholder meeting in protest over the firm’s recent strategy U-turn. BP has since said that Lund will step down, likely in 2026, kickstarting a succession process.

“I think there are three major optionalities in BP’s portfolio that any activist investor would love to see monetized. The first one is not all in BP’s hands, it’s the monetization of the Rosneft stake,” Della Vigna told CNBC over a video call.

BP announced it was abandoning its 19.75% shareholding in Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft shortly after Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. It had marked a costly and abrupt end to more than three decades of activity in the country.

CEO of BP Murray Auchincloss speaks during the CERAWeek oil summit in Houston, Texas, on March 19, 2024. 

Mark Felix | AFP | Getty Images

A second optionality for BP, Della Vigna said, is the firm’s marketing and convenience business.

“I mean, within BP, a company that trades on three times EBITDA, there’s a division that can trade at 10 times EBITDA, right? Amazing. You can make the same point for a lot of the other Big Oils,” Della Vigna said.

EBITDA is a standard metric that refers to a firm’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization.

“The third option is BP is a U.S.- centered energy company — and it’s clear, right? BP is the most U.S.- exposed of all the majors, more than Exxon and Chevron,” Della Vigna said, noting that 40% of BP’s cash flow comes from the U.S.

“So, being listed in the U.K., when the U.K. gets you the biggest discount of any other region in Big Oil, doesn’t feel right. I think some form of relocation or transatlantic merger may be worth considering,” he added.

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Idaho Power wants to cut solar pay rate to under 1¢ per kWh and charge 8¢ per kWh for electricity

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April 15, 2025

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Idaho Power wants to cut solar pay rate to under 1¢ per kWh and charge 8¢ per kWh for electricity

Idaho solar
Photo by Gustavo Fring on Pexels.com

Utility Idaho Power has asked the Idaho Public Utilities Commission (PUC) to drastically slash the rates it pays rooftop solar customers for excess energy. This move could severely impact solar adoption in Idaho just as electricity rates are climbing.

The utility wants to drop the Export Credit Rates (ECRs) – the amount rooftop solar owners get credited for feeding power back to the grid – by 60%, from the current 6.18 cents per kilowatt-hour to just 2.46 cents. That’s a massive 72% plunge from the previous rate of 8.8 cents per kilowatt-hour, which had stood for over a decade.

If the PUC approves the proposal next Month, the new lower rates will kick in on June 1, right before peak solar-producing months. This shift is part of Idaho Power’s controversial “Net Billing” program approved in December 2023, despite public backlash. Under this new system, ECRs would change every year, making it nearly impossible for residents to calculate the financial returns of their rooftop solar investments – a major deterrent to adopting solar.

The proposed rates would vary seasonally. From October through May, when electricity demand drops, Idaho Power wants to cut solar payments even further by a staggering 80%, paying less than 1 cent per kilowatt-hour. Meanwhile, it plans to charge non-solar customers at least 8 cents per kilowatt-hour for the same electricity, padding its own profits.

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Idaho Power is basing these rate cuts on an internal “Value of Distributed Energy Resources Study” from 2022. However, environmental groups hired independent analysts who argue that Idaho Power’s data selectively undervalues solar power.

“How can our state regulators just let this happen? The PUC is supposed to double-check the utility’s math to make sure Idaho ratepayers aren’t being taken advantage of,” said Lisa Young, director of the Idaho Sierra Club. “Distributed solar is worth more than the retail electricity rate, not less. The PUC needs to stop turning its cheek on corrupted math and letting this monopoly utility pad its pockets even more.”

Idaho Power customers already faced unpopular hikes to their monthly fixed charges from January 2025, when their flat monthly fees rose from $5 to $15. These fixed charges hit low-income residents hardest and discourage energy conservation and rooftop solar.

“People in Idaho go solar because it lowers their power bills, gives them energy freedom and security, and helps the environment,” said Alex McKinley, owner of the local small business Empowered Solar. “Idaho Power is trying to take that opportunity away from people by skewing these rooftop solar rates in its favor. It’s not right.”

Members of the public can submit public comments at puc.idaho.gov/Form/CaseComment and reference Case #IPC-E-25-15.

To limit power outages and make your home more resilient, consider going solar with a battery storage system. In order to find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and you share your phone number with them.

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Global EV sales jump 40% in March despite tariff turmoil

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9 hours ago

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April 14, 2025

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Global EV sales jump 40% in March despite tariff turmoil

Global EV sales March 2025 BYD Song

Global EV sales surged to 1.7 million units in March, hitting 4.1 million for Q1 2025 as the EV market continues its robust growth, according to new data from EV research house Rho Motion. Year-over-year sales jumped 29% and marked an impressive 40% month-over-month leap from February.

Europe saw a solid 22% growth in EV sales year-to-date, driven primarily by battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), which climbed 27%. Germany’s BEV market rose 37%, Italy surged by 64%, and the UK hit a milestone with over 100,000 EVs sold in March alone, a first-time record boosted by new vehicle registrations. France’s EV sales dropped 18%, severely impacted by reduced government subsidies, with BEVs down 5% and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) falling sharply by 47%.

In North America, EV sales increased by 16% in Q1 2025. The market’s outlook remains unclear due to Donald Trump’s recent imposition of substantial tariffs. February’s 25% tariff on auto imports from Canada and Mexico and a broader tariff in March affecting all auto imports are expected to hike consumer prices. With approximately 40% of US EV sales being imported from countries like Japan, Korea, and Mexico, the impact on affordability and market dynamics is likely significant.

China, still the global leader in EV adoption, saw EV sales grow 36% year-over-year in Q1, approaching 1 million units in March alone – a milestone previously reached in August 2024. The US-China tariff crisis will have a minimal impact on China due to the low volume of cross-border EV sales. However, Tesla’s Model X and Model S are exported from the US to China, and the prices for these could nearly double due to tariffs.

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Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said, “This quarter, while turbulent, has seen a strong rate of growth globally for the EV market. Some countries, such as the UK, had a record-breaking March as drivers continue to go electric.

Meanwhile, in North America, forecasts are struggling to keep up with the rate of policy announcements under the current White House administration. What is sure is that the electric vehicle market is already struggling to compete with ICE on cost, so reductions in subsidies and hefty tariffs for a very international supply chain are guaranteed to have a cooling effect on the industry.”

EV sales in Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, YTD percentage: 

  • Global: 4.1 million, +29% 
  • China: 2.4 million, +36% 
  • Europe: 0.9 million, +22% 
  • North America: 0.5 million, +16% 
  • Rest of World: 0.3 million, +27% 

The bottom line: EV sales are up month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter, and year-over-year.

Read more: Contrary to popular belief, EV sales grew more in 2024 than 2023

If you live in an area that has frequent natural disaster events, and are interested in making your home more resilient to power outages, consider going solar and adding a battery storage system. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. They have hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.

Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisers to help you every step of the way. Get started here. –trusted affiliate link*

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