Representations of cryptocurrency Bitcoin are seen in this illustration, August 10, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration
Dado Ruvic | Reuters
Bitcoin’s lack of volatility lately isn’t a bad thing and could actually point to signs of a “bottoming out” in prices, analysts and investors told CNBC.
Digital currencies have fallen sharply since a scorching run in 2021 which saw bitcoin climb as high as $68,990. But for the past few months, bitcoin’s price has bounced stubbornly around $20,000 in a sign that volatility in the market has settled.
Last week, the cryptocurrency’s 20-day rolling volatility fell below that of the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes for the first time since 2020, according to data from crypto research firm Kaiko.
Stocks and cryptocurrencies are both down sharply this year as interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve and a strengthening dollar weighed on the sector.
Bitcoin’s correlation with stocks has increased over time as more institutional investors have invested in crypto.
But bitcoin’s price has stabilized recently. And for some investors, that easing of volatility is a good sign.
“Bitcoin has essentially been range bound between 18-25K for 4 months now, which indicates consolidation and a potential bottoming out pattern, given we are seeing the Dollar index top out as well,” Vijay Ayyar, head of international at crypto exchange Luno, told CNBC in emailed comments.”
“In previous cases such as in 2015, we’ve seen BTC bottom when DXY has topped, so we could be seeing a very similar pattern play out here.”
Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo, said bitcoin’s price stability was “a strong sign that the digital assets market has matured and is becoming less fragmented.”
An end to crypto winter?
Cryptocurrencies have suffered a brutal comedown this year, losing $2 trillion in value since the height of the 2021 rally. Bitcoin, the world’s biggest digital coin, is off around 70% from its November peak.
The current so-called “crypto winter” is largely the result of aggressive tightening from the Fed, which has been hiking interest rates in an effort to tame rocketing inflation. Large crypto investors with highly leveraged bets like Three Arrows Capital were floored by the pressure on prices, further accelerating the market’s drop.
However, some investors think the ice may now be beginning to thaw.
There are signs of an “accumulation phase,” according to Ayyar, when institutional investors are more willing to place bets on bitcoin given the lull in prices.
“Bitcoin being stuck in such a range does make it boring, but this is also when retail loses interest and smart money starts to accumulate,” Ayyar said.
Matteo Dante Perruccio, president of international at digital asset management firm Wave Financial, said he’s seen a “counterintuitive increase in demand of traditional institutional investors in crypto during what is a time where generally you would see interest fall off in the traditional markets.”
Financial institutions have continued taking steps into crypto despite the fall in prices and waning interest from retail investors.
Goldman Sachs suggested we may be close to the end of a “particularly bearish” period in the latest cycle of crypto movements. In a note released Thursday, analysts at the bank said there were parallels with bitcoin’s trading in Nov. 2018, when prices steadied for a while before rising steadily.
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“Low volatility [in Nov. 2018] was following a large bitcoin bear market,” Goldman’s analysts wrote, adding that “crypto QT” (quantitative tightening) occurred as investors poured out of stablecoins like tether, reducing liquidity. The circulating supply of USD Coin — a stablecoin that’s pegged to the U.S. dollar — has fallen $12 billion since June, while tether’s circulating supply has dropped over $14 billion since May.
Selling pressure has slowed, too, as bitcoin miners reduced their sales of the cryptocurrency, suggesting the worst may be over for the mining space. Publicly-traded bitcoin miners sold 12,000 bitcoins in June and only around 3,000 in September, according to Goldman Sachs.
Wave Financial’s Perruccio expects the second quarter of next year to be the time when crypto winter finally comes to an end.
“We’ll have seen a lot more failures in the DeFi [decentralized finance] space, a lot of the smaller players, which is absolutely necessary for the industry to evolve,” he added.
All eyes on the Fed
James Butterfill, head of research at crypto asset management firm CoinShares, said it was difficult to draw too many conclusions at this stage. However, he added, “we err on the side of greater potential for upside rather than further price falls.”
“The largest fund outflows recently have been in short-Bitcoin positions (US$15m this month, 10% of AuM), while we have seen small but uninterrupted inflows into long Bitcoin over the last 6 weeks,” Butterfill told CNBC via email.
The main thing that would lead to greater buying of bitcoin would be a signal from the Federal Reserve that it plans to ease its aggressive tightening, Butterfill said.
The Fed is expected to hike rates by 75 basis points at its meeting next week, but officials at the central bank are reportedly considering slowing the pace of future increases.
“Clients are telling us that once the Fed pivots, or is close to it, they will begin adding positions to Bitcoin,” Butterfill said. “The recent liquidations of net shorts is in sync with what we are seeing from a fund flows perspective and implies short sellers are beginning to capitulate.”
Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024. The trade show runs through June 7.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro Computer could be headed down a path to getting kicked off the Nasdaq as soon as Monday.
That’s the potential fate for the server company if it fails to file a viable plan for becoming compliant with Nasdaq regulations. Super Micro is late in filing its 2024 year-end report with the SEC, and has yet to replace its accounting firm. Many investors were expecting clarity from Super Micro when the company reported preliminary quarterly results last week. But they didn’t get it.
The primary component of that plan is how and when Super Micro will file its 2024 year-end report with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and why it was late. That report is something many expected would be filed alongside the company’s June fourth-quarter earnings but was not.
The Nasdaq delisting process represents a crossroads for Super Micro, which has been one of the primary beneficiaries of the artificial intelligence boom due to its longstanding relationship with Nvidia and surging demand for the chipmaker’s graphics processing units.
The one-time AI darling is reeling after a stretch of bad news. After Super Micro failed to file its annual report over the summer, activist short seller Hindenburg Research targeted the company in August, alleging accounting fraud and export control issues. The company’s auditor, Ernst & Young, stepped down in October, and Super Micro said last week that it was still trying to find a new one.
The stock is getting hammered. After the shares soared more than 14-fold from the end of 2022 to their peak in March of this year, they’ve since plummeted by 85%. Super Micro’s stock is now equal to where it was trading in May 2022, after falling another 11% on Thursday.
Getting delisted from the Nasdaq could be next if Super Micro doesn’t file a compliance plan by the Monday deadline or if the exchange rejects the company’s submission. Super Micro could also get an extension from the Nasdaq, giving it months to come into compliance. The company said Thursday that it would provide a plan to the Nasdaq in time.
A spokesperson told CNBC the company “intends to take all necessary steps to achieve compliance with the Nasdaq continued listing requirements as soon as possible.”
While the delisting issue mainly affects the stock, it could also hurt Super Micro’s reputation and standing with its customers, who may prefer to simply avoid the drama and buy AI servers from rivals such as Dell or HPE.
“Given that Super Micro’s accounting concerns have become more acute since Super Micro’s quarter ended, its weakness could ultimately benefit Dell more in the coming quarter,” Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi wrote in a note this week.
A representative for the Nasdaq said the exchange doesn’t comment on the delisting process for individual companies, but the rules suggest the process could take about a year before a final decision.
A plan of compliance
The Nasdaq warned Super Micro on Sept. 17 that it was at risk of being delisted. That gave the company 60 days to submit a plan of compliance to the exchange, and because the deadline falls on a Sunday, the effective date for the submission is Monday.
If Super Micro’s plan is acceptable to Nasdaq staff, the company is eligible for an extension of up to 180 days to file its year-end report. The Nasdaq wants to see if Super Micro’s board of directors has investigated the company’s accounting problem, what the exact reason for the late filing was and a timeline of actions taken by the board.
The Nasdaq says it looks at several factors when evaluating a plan of compliance, including the reasons for the late filing, upcoming corporate events, the overall financial status of the company and the likelihood of a company filing an audited report within 180 days. The review can also look at information provided by outside auditors, the SEC or other regulators.
Last week, Super Micro said it was doing everything it could to remain listed on the Nasdaq, and said a special committee of its board had investigated and found no wrongdoing. Super Micro CEO Charles Liang said the company would receive the board committee’s report as soon as last week. A company spokesperson didn’t respond when asked by CNBC if that report had been received.
If the Nasdaq rejects Super Micro’s compliance plan, the company can request a hearing from the exchange’s Hearings Panel to review the decision. Super Micro won’t be immediately kicked off the exchange – the hearing panel request starts a 15-day stay for delisting, and the panel can decide to extend the deadline for up to 180 days.
If the panel rejects that request or if Super Micro gets an extension and fails to file the updated financials, the company can still appeal the decision to another Nasdaq body called the Listing Council, which can grant an exception.
Ultimately, the Nasdaq says the extensions have a limit: 360 days from when the company’s first late filing was due.
A poor track record
There’s one factor at play that could hurt Super Micro’s chances of an extension. The exchange considers whether the company has any history of being out of compliance with SEC regulations.
Between 2015 and 2017, Super Micro misstated financials and published key filings late, according to the SEC. It was delisted from the Nasdaq in 2017 and was relisted two years later.
Super Micro “might have a more difficult time obtaining extensions as the Nasdaq’s literature indicates it will in part ‘consider the company’s specific circumstances, including the company’s past compliance history’ when determining whether an extension is warranted,” Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson wrote in a note earlier this month. He has a neutral rating on the stock.
History also reveals just how long the delisting process can take.
Charles Liang, chief executive officer of Super Micro Computer Inc., right, and Jensen Huang, co-founder and chief executive officer of Nvidia Corp., during the Computex conference in Taipei, Taiwan, on Wednesday, June 5, 2024.
Annabelle Chih | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Super Micro missed an annual report filing deadline in June 2017, got an extension to December and finally got a hearing in May 2018, which gave it another extension to August of that year. It was only when it missed that deadline that the stock was delisted.
In the short term, the bigger worry for Super Micro is whether customers and suppliers start to bail.
Aside from the compliance problems, Super Micro is a fast-growing company making one of the most in-demand products in the technology industry. Sales more than doubled last year to nearly $15 billion, according to unaudited financial reports, and the company has ample cash on its balance sheet, analysts say. Wall Street is expecting even more growth to about $25 billion in sales in its fiscal 2025, according to FactSet.
Super Micro said last week that the filing delay has “had a bit of an impact to orders.” In its unaudited September quarter results reported last week, the company showed growth that was slower than Wall Street expected. It also provided light guidance.
The company said one reason for its weak results was that it hadn’t yet obtained enough supply of Nvidia’s next-generation chip, called Blackwell, raising questions about Super Micro’s relationship with its most important supplier.
“We don’t believe that Super Micro’s issues are a big deal for Nvidia, although it could move some sales around in the near term from one quarter to the next as customers direct orders toward Dell and others,” wrote Melius Research analyst Ben Reitzes in a note this week.
Super Micro’s head of corporate development, Michael Staiger, told investors on a call last week that “we’ve spoken to Nvidia and they’ve confirmed they’ve made no changes to allocations. We maintain a strong relationship with them.”
Chinese e-commerce behemoth Alibaba on Friday beat profit expectations in its September quarter, but sales fell short as sluggishness in the world’s second-largest economy hit consumer spending.
Alibaba said net income rose 58% year on year to 43.9 billion yuan ($6.07 billion) in the company’s quarter ended Sept. 30, on the back of the performance of its equity investments. This compares with an LSEG forecast of 25.83 billion yuan.
“The year-over-year increases were primarily attributable to the mark-to-market changes from our equity investments, decrease in impairment of our investments and increase in income from operations,” the company said of the annual profit jump in its earnings statement.
Revenue, meanwhile, came in at 236.5 billion yuan, 5% higher year on year but below an analyst forecast of 238.9 billion yuan, according to LSEG data.
The company’s New York-listed shares have gained ground this year to date, up more than 13%. The stock fell more than 2% in morning trading on Friday, after the release of the quarterly earnings.
Sales sentiment
Investors are closely watching the performance of Alibaba’s main business units, Taobao and Tmall Group, which reported a 1% annual uptick in revenue to 98.99 billion yuan in the September quarter.
The results come at a tricky time for Chinese commerce businesses, given a tepid retail environment in the country. Chinese e-commerce group JD.com also missed revenue expectations on Thursday, according to Reuters.
Markets are now watching whether a slew of recent stimulus measures from Beijing, including a five-year 1.4 trillion yuan package announced last week, will help resuscitate the country’s growth and curtail a long-lived real estate market slump.
The impact on the retail space looks promising so far, with sales rising by a better-than-expected 4.8% year on year in October, while China’s recent Singles’ Day shopping holiday — widely seen as a barometer for national consumer sentiment — regained some of its luster.
Alibaba touted “robust growth” in gross merchandise volume — an industry measure of sales over time that does not equate to the company’s revenue — for its Taobao and Tmall Group businesses during the festival, along with a “record number of active buyers.”
“Alibaba’s outlook remains closely aligned with the trajectory of the Chinese economy and evolving regulatory policies,” ING analysts said Thursday, noting that the company’s Friday report will shed light on the Chinese economy’s growth momentum.
The e-commerce giant’s overseas online shopping businesses, such as Lazada and Aliexpress, meanwhile posted a 29% year-on-year hike in sales to 31.67 billion yuan.
Cloud business accelerates
Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligence Group reported year-on-year sales growth of 7% to 29.6 billion yuan in the September quarter, compared with a 6% annual hike in the three-month period ended in June. The slight acceleration comes amid ongoing efforts by the company to leverage its cloud infrastructure and reposition itself as a leader in the booming artificial intelligence space.
“Growth in our Cloud business accelerated from prior quarters, with revenues from public cloud products growing in double digits and AI-related product revenue delivering triple-digit growth. We are more confident in our core businesses than ever and will continue to invest in supporting long-term growth,” Alibaba CEO Eddie Wu said in a statement Friday.
Stymied by Beijing’s sweeping 2022 crackdown on large internet and tech companies, Alibaba last year overhauled the division’s leadership and has been shaping it as a future growth driver, stepping up competition with rivals including Baidu and Huawei domestically, and Microsoft and OpenAI in the U.S.
Alibaba, which rolled out its own ChatGPT-style product Tongyi Qianwen last year, this week unveiled its own AI-powered search tool for small businesses in Europe and the Americas, and clinched a key five-year partnership to supply cloud services to Indonesian tech giant GoTo in September.
Speaking at the Apsara Conference in September, Alibaba’s Wu said the company’s cloud unit is investing “with unprecedented intensity, in the research and development of AI technology and the building of its global infrastructure,” noting that the future of AI is “only beginning.”
Correction: This article has been updated to reflect that Alibaba’s Cloud Intelligence Group reported quarterly revenue of 29.6 billion yuan in the September quarter.
Elon Musk listens as US President-elect Donald Trump speaks during a House Republicans Conference meeting at the Hyatt Regency on Capitol Hill on November 13, 2024 in Washington, DC.
Allison Robbert | Getty Images
Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI is raising up to $6 billion at a $50 billion valuation, according to CNBC’s David Faber.
Sources told Faber that the funding, which should close early next week, is a combination of $5 billion expected from sovereign funds in the Middle East and $1 billion from other investors, some of whom may want to re-up their investments.
The money will be used to acquire 100,000 Nvidia chips, per sources familiar with the situation. Tesla‘s Full Self Driving is expected to rely on the new Memphis supercomputer.
Musk’s AI startup, which he announced in July 2023, seeks to “understand the true nature of the universe,” according to its website. Last November, X.AI released a chatbot called Grok, which the company said was modeled after “The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy.” The chatbot debuted with two months of training and had real-time knowledge of the internet, the company claimed at the time.
With Grok, X.AI aims to directly compete with companies including ChatGPT creator OpenAI, which Musk helped start before a conflict with co-founder Sam Altman led him to depart the project in 2018. It will also be vying with Google’s Bard technology and Anthropic’s Claude chatbot.
Now that Donald Trump is President-elect, Elon Musk is beginning to actively work with the new administration on its approach to AI and tech more broadly, as part of Trump’s inner circle in recent weeks.
Trump plans to repeal President Biden’s executive order on AI, according to his campaign platform, stating that it “hinders AI Innovation, and imposes Radical Leftwing ideas on the development of this technology” and that “in its place, Republicans support AI Development rooted in Free Speech and Human Flourishing.”