Lula’s victory in Brazil sparks optimism on deforestation, with ramifications for the world
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s former president, center, addresses supporters after winning the runoff presidential election in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Sunday, Oct. 30, 2022.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images
The narrow win by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the Brazilian presidential election marks a key turning point on environmental issues, analysts say.
Da Silva, commonly known as Lula, took 50.9% of the second round vote to incumbent Jair Bolsonaro’s 49.1%, according to Brazil’s election authority.
The 77-year-old leftist campaigned on policies including exempting the lowest earners from income tax, raising the minimum wage and upping investment in public services to create new jobs. He has vowed to reduce poverty and boost economic growth, citing his record of doing so when he served two terms as president from 2003 to 2010.
The remarkable political return comes after he was jailed in 2017 on money laundering and corruption charges that were overturned in 2019.
“It’s a significant change, I can’t emphasize how much things will be different in this country with Lula’s election,” James Green, professor of Latin American History at Brown University, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” Monday, citing planned increases in welfare provision, more public-inclusive decision making, and the return of a “government of transparency.”
It also, Green said, “means a return to policies to save the Amazon.” As well as containing 25% of the world’s terrestrial biodiversity, the Amazon plays a crucial global role through storing billions of tons of carbon and releasing billions of tons of water each year.
Lula used his victory address to pledge to combat climate change and deforestation — issues observers say have not just been sidelined but severely worsened under Bolsonaro’s tenure.
Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon rose to an all-time high in the first half of 2022 and was 80% higher than the same period in 2018, the year before Bolsonaro took office, according to a report by the Amazon Environmental Research Institute.
Bolsonaro has been criticized for enabling the proliferation of illegal activity in Brazilian rainforests — including land grabs and violence against indigenous people and campaigners — through funding cuts to on-the-ground law enforcement; slashing the national environment agency’s budget; seeking to overturn environmental regulations; approving thousands of new pesticides; and appeasing the country’s powerful agricultural businesses by failing to act on encroachment onto protected lands.
Brazil has also failed to detail plans to cut carbon emissions in line with international agreements, according to Human Rights Watch, and its emissions from agriculture and cattle-raising have risen to the highest level on record.
Bolsonaro’s office was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC. Bolsonaro has previously said he was taking action to protect the rainforest; but he has also defended the expansion of mining projects, while also accusing foreign governments and the media of exaggerating the damage being done. In 2019, he told foreign journalists: “No country in the world has the moral right to talk about the Amazon. You destroyed your own ecosystems.”
Environmental turnaround?
Organized crime has taken hold of several areas of the Amazon during Bolsonaro’s presidency, with many illegal miners and land grabbers seeing him as an ally, Carlos Rittl, international policy advisor and Brazil specialist at Norwegian NGO Rainforest Foundation, told CNBC on a call.
“Around 95% of deforestation in the last four years in the Amazon has had some level of illegality,” he said. “Areas that should have remained as forest have become private land, indigenous land has been invaded. It has reached this level because of the inaction of the government.”
“If we take a look at the promises Lula has made, including in his victory speech last night, he was addressing several major problems but also net zero deforestation, protecting indigenous people’s rights,” Rittl continued.
“We can expect him to re-strengthen the environmental agency and recover the budget to allow them to act against environmental crimes” — but only so long as he “walks the talk,” Rittl said.
It won’t be easy or immediate, he added, for a variety of reasons. A 2023 budget has already been agreed and systems have to be rebuilt and put to work. Lula will be seeking consensus in a strongly divided country and political system. And things have changed since his previous term (when annual deforestation of the Amazon plunged from 25,396 sqkm in 2003 to 7,000 sqkm in 2010) due to higher levels of organized crime with a strong foothold.
International cooperation on these efforts will be important, Rittl added. Norway is already looking to resume aid for anti-deforestation efforts to Brazil, which it suspended during Bolsonaro’s term, local newspaper Aftenposten reported Monday.
Growth targets
A further challenge is the pressure on Lula to start delivering on the economy, job creation and poverty alleviation, themes he became known for during his previous term.
Brazil’s economy has stuttered over the last decade, falling into a deep recession 2015 and 2016 which was followed by a period of political instability. It was also heavily hit by the coronavirus pandemic, when its population suffered one of the world’s worst death tolls and inequality increased, according to think tanks. Inflation is set to average 5.8% this year and interest rates are near 14%.
Meanwhile, described by some commentators as socially rather than economically right wing, Bolsonaro also leaves behind various subsidy and unfunded spending programs that have added to Brazil’s high levels of debt, which Brown University’s James Green called a “series of time bombs.”
However, the Brazilian real has been among the only currencies to outperform the U.S. dollar this year due to commodities demand, central bank tightening and the economy’s distance from volatility such as the war in Ukraine.
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It remains to be seen how international investors will respond to the return of a Lula presidency, especially one with significant spending pledges to fulfil, and where he will take Bolsonaro’s planned pro-market reforms and privatizations.
The real dropped 2% on the news, before trimming losses, and shares in U.S.-listed Brazilian companies, including oil giant Petrobras, fell in pre-market trading.
The immediate concern for markets and also Brazilians and the international community is political stability during the handover of power, which is set to take two months.
There are still questions over whether Bolsonaro will challenge the election outcome. He could also seek to block a smooth transition, Green noted.
Energy question
And if he has set ambitious goals to cut deforestation to zero and review emissions targets in line with the Paris Agreement, Lula has also acknowledged oil will be necessary for some time and would oversea an increase in oil and gas production, Climate Home News reports.
Brazil has a relatively clean domestic energy supply, with nearly half of its power coming from renewable sources. But it is also a major oil producer, with its crude oil exports providing a key income source along with soaring commodities demand during Lula’s previous terms.
Rittl said there was potential for an even greater shift toward renewable energy domestically.
Beyond that, he continued: “We need to see finance for agriculture that is linked to emissions reduction, protecting the environment, controlling fertiliser use and managing cattle. Brazil needs mandatory emissions reductions standards and an updated plan to fulfil them.”
“It needs economic policies that are aligned with climate policies to make sure that infrastructure, agriculture and industry are all drivers for change in Brazil,” Rittl added.
The HD arm of Hyundai has just released the first official images of the new, battery-electric HX19e mini excavator – the first ever production electric excavator from the global South Korean manufacturer.
The HX19e will be the first all-electric asset to enter series production at Hyundai Construction Equipment, with manufacturing set to begin this April.
The new HX19e will be offered with either a 32 kWh or 40 kWh li-ion battery pack – which, according to Hyundai, is nearly double the capacity offered by its nearest competitor (pretty sure that’s not correct –Ed.). The 40kWh battery allows for up to 6 hours and 40 minutes of continuous operation between charges, with a break time top-up on delivering full shift usability.
Those batteries send power to a 13 kW (17.5 hp) electric motor that drives an open-center hydraulic system. Hyundai claims the system delivers job site performance that is at least equal to, if not better than, that of its diesel-powered HX19A mini excavator.
To that end, the Hyundai XH19e offers the same 16 kN bucket breakout force and a slightly higher 9.4 kN (just over 2100 lb-ft) dipper arm breakout force. The maximum digging depth is 7.6 feet, and the maximum digging reach is 12.9 feet. Hyundai will offer the new electric excavator with just four selectable options:
- enclosed cab vs. open canopy
- 32 or 40 kWh battery capacity
All HX19es will ship with a high standard specification that includes safety valves on the main boom, dipper arm, and dozer blade hydraulic cylinders, as well as two-way auxiliary hydraulic piping allows the machine to be used with a range of commercially available implements. The hydraulics needed to operate a quick coupler, LED booms lights, rotating beacons, an MP3 radio with USB connectivity, and an operator’s seat with mechanical suspension are also standard.
Like its counterparts at Volvo CE, the new Hyundai excavator uses automotive-style charging ports to take advantage of existing infrastructure at fleet depots and public charging stations. More detailed specifications, dimensions, and pricing should be announced by bauma.
Electrek’s Take
The ability to operate indoors, underground, or in environments like zoos and hospitals were keeping noise levels down is of critical importance to the success of an operation makes electric equipment assets like these coming from Hyundai a must-have for fleet operators and construction crews that hope to remain competitive in the face of ever-increasing noise regulations. The fact that these are cleaner, safer, and cheaper to operate is just icing on that cake.
SOURCE | IMAGES: HD Hyundai; via Construction Index, Equipment World.
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With the Trump Administration fully in power and Federal electric vehicle incentives apparently on the chopping block, many fleet buyers are second-guessing the push to electrify their fleets. To help ease their minds, Harbinger is launching the IRA Risk-Free Guarantee, promising to cover the cost of anticipated IRA credits if the rebate goes away.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) 45W Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit offers up to $40,000 per medium-duty commercial EV. Originally proposaed as part of President Biden’s Green New Deal package, the incentive was put in place to help modernize commercial fleets by overcoming obstacles like the higher up-front costs of EVs.
In the case of a Harbinger S524 Class 5 chassis with a 140 kWh battery capacity with an MSRP of $103,200, the company will offer an IRA Risk-Free Guarantee credit of $12,900 at the time of purchase, bringing initial cost down to $90,300. This matches the typical selling price of an equivalent Freightliner MT-45 diesel medium-duty chassis.
“We created (the IRA Risk-Free Guarantee) program to eliminate the financial uncertainty for customers who are interested in EV adoption, but are concerned about the future of the IRA tax credit,” said John Harris, Co-founder and CEO of Harbinger. “For electric vehicles to go mainstream, they must be cost-competitive with diesel vehicles. While the IRA tax credit helps bridge that gap, we remain committed to price parity with diesel, even if the credit disappears. Our vertically integrated approach enables us to keep costs low, shields us from tariff volatility, and ensures long-term price stability for our customers.”
Harbinger recently revealed a book of business consisting of 4,690 binding orders. Those orders are valued at approximately $500 million, and fueled a $100 million Series B raise.
Electrek’s Take
One of the most frequent criticisms of electric vehicle incentives is that they encourage manufacturers and dealers to artificially inflate the price of their vehicles. In their heads, I imagine the scenario goes something like this:
- you looked at a used Nissan LEAF on a dealer’s lot priced at $14,995
- a new bill passes and the state issues a $2500 used EV rebate
- you decide to go back to the dealer and buy the car
- once you arrive, you find that the price is now $16,995
While it’s commendable that Harbinger is taking action and sacrificing some of its profits to keep the business growing and the overall cause of fleet electrification moving forward, one has to wonder how they can “suddenly” afford to offer these massive discounts in lieu of government incentives – and how many other EV brands could probably afford to do the same.
SOURCE | IMAGES: Harbinger.
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Whoever is left at Nikola after the fledgling truck-maker filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection last month is probably having a worse week than you – the company issued a recall with the NHTSA for 95 of its hydrogen fuel cell-powered semi trucks.
Nikola filed for Chapter 11 protections just a few weeks after we predicted the company would go “belly up,” reporting that the company was planning to halt production of its hydrogen fuel cell-powered semi trucks while, at the same time, Nikola’s stock had sunk to a 52-week low following a formal NHTSA complaint claiming the fuel cell shuts down unpredictably.
That complaint seems to have led to the posthumous recall of 95 (out of about 200) Nikola-built electric semi trucks.
The latest HFCEV recall is on top of the 2023 battery recall that impacted nearly all of Nikola’s deployed BEV fleet. Clean Trucking is citing a January 31, 2025 report from the NHTSA revealing that, as of the end of 2024, Nikola had yet to complete repairs for 98 of its affected BEVs. The ultimate fate of those vehicles remains unclear.
Electrek’s Take
I’ve received a few messages complaining that I “haven’t covered” the Nikola bankruptcy – which is bananas, since I reported that it was coming five weeks before it happened and there was no “new” information presented in the interim (he said, defensively).
Still, it’s worth looking back on Nikola’s headlong dive into the empty swimming pool of hydrogen, and remind ourselves that even its most enthusiastic early adopters were suffering.
“The truck costs five to ten times that of a standard Class 8 drayage [truck],” explained William Hall, Managing Member and Founder of Coyote Container. “On top of that, you pay five to ten times the Federal Excise Tax (FET) and local sales tax, [which comes to] roughly 22%. If you add the 10% reserve not covered by any voucher program, you are at 32%. Thirty-two percent of $500,000 is $160,000 for the trucker to somehow pay [out of pocket].”
After several failures that left his Nikola trucks stranded on the side of the road, the first such incident happening with just 900 miles on the truck’s odometer, a NHTSA complaint was filed. It’s not clear if it was Hall’s complaint, but the complaint seems to address his concerns, below.
NHTSA ID Nu. 11621826
Optionally, you could just read Hall’s summary of the Nikola situation, in his own words: “I have dealt with more tow trucks in the last 10 months than in my entire 62 years on this Earth.”
The company issued a technical service bulletin (TSB) on October 29th, just 13 days after the official NHTSA complaint was filed.
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