Ukraine war: Cost-of-living crisis could erode public support for sanctions against Russia
Public support for sanctions on Russia remains overwhelming, but could erode if the cost-of-living crisis worsens, an exclusive poll for Sky News has found.
The poll by Ipsos suggests that 70% of the public support implementing sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
However, just 41% of people now say they would still back sanctions if it means a further rise in energy bills.
That’s a significant decrease since March, when three out of four people (73%) were willing to stomach an increase in energy prices.
Since then, energy costs have more than doubled, adding over £1,200 to the annual bills of a typical household.
A third of people (32%) now say they would oppose sanctions if they were to lead to a further increase in energy prices, up from just 8% of respondents in March.
The poll comes ahead of a special programme on Sky News in conjunction with the Imperial War Museum Institute looking at the war in Ukraine on Tuesday evening at 7.30pm.
Analysis: Support for Ukraine sanctions strong – but for how long?
The link between Russian sanctions and rising prices here is not as obvious as it may seem.
A House of Commons briefing from earlier this month found in 2021 Russian imports made up 4% of the gas used in the UK, 9% of oil and 27% of coal.
Across the EU, the equivalent figures were 39% for gas, 23% for oil and 46% for coal.
But the disruption to supply caused by the war in Ukraine, combined with an increase in demand as countries look for alternative energy sources, has still pushed up prices substantially on international markets.
This has caused the spikes in what we’re all paying to heat and power our homes.
It has also led to the government trying to convince countries like Saudi Arabia to step up energy production in a bid to calm the markets.
All that said, this polling shows that a strong response to Russia over Ukraine is still a vote winner with the public.
In fact, you can make a convincing argument that the initial muscular approach adopted by Boris Johnson was the main reason he was able to cling onto power in Downing Street for quite so long.
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,069 adults aged 16-75 in Great Britain between 19 and 20 October for Sky News.
The poll suggests that public support for Britain’s role in assisting Ukraine remains high, with 59% of people in favour of sending arms and money to the country and 58% saying that the UK should accept more Ukrainian refugees.
However, increases in energy bills since March have left public support for sanctions more fragile than before.
According to the poll, 41% of the public are “very concerned” about the war’s impact on the UK economy, with the same proportion saying that it is contributing “a great deal” to rising prices.
The only factor which respondents were more likely to identify as contributing significantly to inflation was the Conservative government’s economic policies (48% of people). Respondents also identified excessive corporate profits, global economic headwinds and UK interest rates as key causes of the cost-of-living crisis.
One in four (25%) said they were “very concerned” about being unable to pay their bills over the next six months, with a further 45% “fairly concerned”.
Were sanctions to lead to an increase in energy bills, they would no longer enjoy support across all parts of society, as they have done so far.
Half of people in relatively secure financial positions (48%) would continue to back sanctions, with only 27% opposed.
Among those struggling most with the cost of living, however, the number of people against sanctions would be larger than the number of people in favour.
For now, however, Britain’s sympathies lie overwhelmingly with Ukraine. Just 63% of respondents said they were very concerned about the impact of the war on themselves personally, compared to 82% who said they were worried for Ukrainian civilians.
Three in four people (74%) are also concerned about the possible implications of the war for Britain’s national security.
Although additional price increases would dent support for sanctions, most people (52%) would still back the measures if they led to prices remaining at their current, high level for longer.
Even among those who said they were finding it “difficult” to get by at the moment, 45% said they would be willing to endure continued high prices for the sake of supporting Ukraine, with 30% disagreeing.
Keiran Pedley, Research Director at Ipsos, told Sky News: “These findings show sustained support for Ukraine from the British public over time, as a clear majority continue to support Britain’s role supporting Ukraine amidst widespread sympathy for Ukraine’s people.
“Although there is concern about the impact of the war on Britain’s economy, most continue to support sanctions, and think they are necessary even with higher energy and food prices.
“However, there is some evidence that support for sanctions in the face of rising energy and food prices may not be limitless if they continue to rise even further over time.”
Methodology
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,069 adults aged 16-75 in Great Britain. Interviews took place online between 19 and 20 October 2022. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.
Full tables can be found on the Ipsos website.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
NHS England has warned the health service is facing a “worst case scenario” December with a surge of “super flu”.
The warning comes as new figures revealed the number of people in hospital with flu have increased by more than half in just one week.
Catch up as it happened: NHS warns of ‘worst-case scenario’ as ‘super flu’ surges
Latest figures show:
• An average of 2,660 patients were in hospital per day with flu last week
• This is the highest ever for this time of year and up 55% on last week
• At this point last year the number stood at 1,861 patients, while in 2023 it was just 402
Health service bosses are warning the number of flu patients in hospital has already increased sharply since the week covered by this data – with no peak in sight.
Read more: Why is flu season worse this year?
Virus outbreaks coincide with doctors’ strikes
Weekly flu numbers in England peaked at 5,408 patients last winter and reached 5,441 over the winter of 2022/23, the highest level since the pandemic.
Alongside rocketing flu, the number of norovirus patients in hospital has also risen by 35%.
The NHS is now warning winter viruses are starting to “engulf hospitals”.
Demand for A&Es and ambulance services is also soaring.
New monthly figures show A&E attendances were a record for November at 2.35 million – more than 30,000 higher than November 2024.
In addition, there were 48,814 more ambulance incidents (802,525) compared with last year (753,711).
Some hospitals across the country have asked staff, patients and visitors to wear face masks to cut the spread of flu, while others have gone in and out of critical incident status due to the high number of people attending A&E.
The record-breaking demand on the NHS coincides with a resident doctors’ strike from 17 to 22 December over pay and jobs – sparking fears of major disruption for patients in the run up to Christmas.
People are being advised to attend any planned appointments scheduled during the strikes unless they have been contacted to reschedule.
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Will doctors accept late deal to avoid strikes?
Flu vaccinations on the up… who can get one?
The NHS is urging anyone eligible to get their flu vaccination to help prevent them getting seriously ill.
Latest figures show more than 17.4 million people have been vaccinated so far this year, more than 381,000 higher than last year.
You can get it if you:
• Are 65 or over in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland
• Are pregnant
• Live in a care home
• Are the main carer for an older or disabled person, or receive carer’s allowance
• Live with someone who has a weakened immune system
• Are a frontline health and social care worker
• Are of school age
• Have certain medical conditions (the NHS has a full list)
Wes Streeting, the health secretary, warned of a “tidal wave of flu tearing through our hospitals”.
“We are working with the NHS to make sure it is able to cope with this as best as possible,” he said.
Warning ‘extremely challenging few weeks ahead’
Professor Meghana Pandit, NHS national medical director, warned the health service faces “an extremely challenging few weeks ahead” with “staff being pushed to the limit”.
She said: “With record demand for A&E and ambulances and an impending resident doctors’ strike, this unprecedented wave of super flu is leaving the NHS facing a worst-case scenario for this time of year – with staff being pushed to the limit to keep providing the best possible care for patients.
“The numbers of patients in hospital with flu is extremely high for this time of year. Even worse, it continues to rise and the peak is not in sight yet, so the NHS faces an extremely challenging few weeks ahead.”
She added: “We have prepared earlier for winter than ever before, and stress-tested services to ensure people have a range of ways to get the help they need and avoid needing to go to A&E.
“For non-life-threatening care, people should call NHS 111 or use 111 online, which can direct you to the most appropriate place, and use A&E and 999 for life threatening conditions and serious injuries.”
Read more from Sky News:
US accused of ‘piracy’
Flights diverted in Moscow
Mr Streeting has offered the British Medical Association (BMA) a last-minute deal in the hope doctors will call off the walkout, which starts next Wednesday.
The doctors’ union has agreed to put the offer to members over the coming day, and is expected to announced a decision on Monday, just two days before the planned strike.
The offer includes a fast expansion of specialist training posts as well as covering out-of-pocket expenses such as exam fees, but does not include extra pay.
The spread of subclade K, the super flu, is picking up – and it’s not looking good for the NHS.
An average of just under 2,700 hospital beds a day in England were occupied by patients with flu last week.
There are fears that could jump to somewhere between 5,000 and 8,000 by the end of this week.
That’s on top of COVID and RSV.
And with the possibility of a five-day strike by resident (junior) doctors next week, it’s a perfect storm for hospitals.
An NHS hospital ward at Ealing Hospital in London. Pic: PA
Christmas flu
Children are the super-spreaders of flu. It races around classrooms and some schools have temporarily shut because of the impact.
The Christmas holidays aren’t far off. They are likely to put the brakes on children passing around the virus.
But it’s also a time of year when families mix with elderly relatives, who are more likely to be hit hard by the infection – perhaps even needing hospital care.
So while the holidays may temporarily slow the overall rise in infections, the impact on hospitals could get much worse.
File pic: PA
Subclade K
Flu is spreading so rapidly at the moment because immunity to subclade K from previous infections and vaccinations is low.
The virus – a variant of the H3N2 flu strain – suddenly acquired seven new mutations in late summer.
Every 100 people infected with seasonal flu would typically pass the virus on to 120 others.
With subclade K, it’s 140.
And that’s why cases are rising so quickly on the charts.
At the moment, 18 in every 100,000 patients in England are consulting their GP with flu-like symptoms. That’s still well short of the peak of around 50 in every 100,000 in 2017/18, the worst flu outbreak in recent years.
File pic: PA
The grim reality of flu
Flu is a really unpleasant disease, nothing like a cold. I’ve had it twice in my life and it physically hurt to get out of bed. It’s grim.
Most people get over it with a few days’ rest and paracetamol to take the edge off the fever.
But vulnerable people can become seriously ill. In the outbreak of 2017/18, around 22,000 died.
Read more:
Nurses ‘deeply concerned about what lies ahead’
NHS braced for ‘toughest winter’ after record-breaking month
That’s why the NHS is urging people in certain groups – the over 65s, those with underlying health conditions, pregnant women, carers and children – to get the jab.
The vaccine isn’t a great match for subclade K, but still reduces the chance of hospital admission by 30-40% in adults.
It’s impossible to say when the spread will peak, but the latest figures suggest the outbreak is far from over.
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