Ukraine war: Cost-of-living crisis could erode public support for sanctions against Russia
Public support for sanctions on Russia remains overwhelming, but could erode if the cost-of-living crisis worsens, an exclusive poll for Sky News has found.
The poll by Ipsos suggests that 70% of the public support implementing sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
However, just 41% of people now say they would still back sanctions if it means a further rise in energy bills.
That’s a significant decrease since March, when three out of four people (73%) were willing to stomach an increase in energy prices.
Since then, energy costs have more than doubled, adding over £1,200 to the annual bills of a typical household.
A third of people (32%) now say they would oppose sanctions if they were to lead to a further increase in energy prices, up from just 8% of respondents in March.
The poll comes ahead of a special programme on Sky News in conjunction with the Imperial War Museum Institute looking at the war in Ukraine on Tuesday evening at 7.30pm.
Analysis: Support for Ukraine sanctions strong – but for how long?
The link between Russian sanctions and rising prices here is not as obvious as it may seem.
A House of Commons briefing from earlier this month found in 2021 Russian imports made up 4% of the gas used in the UK, 9% of oil and 27% of coal.
Across the EU, the equivalent figures were 39% for gas, 23% for oil and 46% for coal.
But the disruption to supply caused by the war in Ukraine, combined with an increase in demand as countries look for alternative energy sources, has still pushed up prices substantially on international markets.
This has caused the spikes in what we’re all paying to heat and power our homes.
It has also led to the government trying to convince countries like Saudi Arabia to step up energy production in a bid to calm the markets.
All that said, this polling shows that a strong response to Russia over Ukraine is still a vote winner with the public.
In fact, you can make a convincing argument that the initial muscular approach adopted by Boris Johnson was the main reason he was able to cling onto power in Downing Street for quite so long.
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,069 adults aged 16-75 in Great Britain between 19 and 20 October for Sky News.
The poll suggests that public support for Britain’s role in assisting Ukraine remains high, with 59% of people in favour of sending arms and money to the country and 58% saying that the UK should accept more Ukrainian refugees.
However, increases in energy bills since March have left public support for sanctions more fragile than before.
According to the poll, 41% of the public are “very concerned” about the war’s impact on the UK economy, with the same proportion saying that it is contributing “a great deal” to rising prices.
The only factor which respondents were more likely to identify as contributing significantly to inflation was the Conservative government’s economic policies (48% of people). Respondents also identified excessive corporate profits, global economic headwinds and UK interest rates as key causes of the cost-of-living crisis.
One in four (25%) said they were “very concerned” about being unable to pay their bills over the next six months, with a further 45% “fairly concerned”.
Were sanctions to lead to an increase in energy bills, they would no longer enjoy support across all parts of society, as they have done so far.
Half of people in relatively secure financial positions (48%) would continue to back sanctions, with only 27% opposed.
Among those struggling most with the cost of living, however, the number of people against sanctions would be larger than the number of people in favour.
For now, however, Britain’s sympathies lie overwhelmingly with Ukraine. Just 63% of respondents said they were very concerned about the impact of the war on themselves personally, compared to 82% who said they were worried for Ukrainian civilians.
Three in four people (74%) are also concerned about the possible implications of the war for Britain’s national security.
Although additional price increases would dent support for sanctions, most people (52%) would still back the measures if they led to prices remaining at their current, high level for longer.
Even among those who said they were finding it “difficult” to get by at the moment, 45% said they would be willing to endure continued high prices for the sake of supporting Ukraine, with 30% disagreeing.
Keiran Pedley, Research Director at Ipsos, told Sky News: “These findings show sustained support for Ukraine from the British public over time, as a clear majority continue to support Britain’s role supporting Ukraine amidst widespread sympathy for Ukraine’s people.
“Although there is concern about the impact of the war on Britain’s economy, most continue to support sanctions, and think they are necessary even with higher energy and food prices.
“However, there is some evidence that support for sanctions in the face of rising energy and food prices may not be limitless if they continue to rise even further over time.”
Methodology
Ipsos interviewed a representative sample of 1,069 adults aged 16-75 in Great Britain. Interviews took place online between 19 and 20 October 2022. Data has been weighted to the known offline population proportions. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error.
Full tables can be found on the Ipsos website.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Specialist search teams, police dogs and divers have been dispatched to find two sisters who vanished in Aberdeen three days ago.
Eliza and Henrietta Huszti, both 32, were last seen on CCTV in the city’s Market Street at Victoria Bridge at about 2.12am on Tuesday.
The siblings were captured crossing the bridge and turning right onto a footpath next to the River Dee in the direction of Aberdeen Boat Club.
Henrietta Huszti. Pic: Police Scotland
Eliza Huszti. Pic: Police Scotland
Police Scotland has launched a major search and said it is carrying out “extensive inquires” in an effort to find the women.
Chief Inspector Darren Bruce said: “Local officers, led by specialist search advisors, are being assisted by resources including police dogs and our marine unit.”
Aberdeenshire Drone Services told Sky News it has offered to help in the search and is waiting to hear back from Police Scotland.
CCTV of the sisters. Pic: Police Scotland
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The sisters, from Aberdeen city centre, are described as slim with long brown hair.
Police said the Torry side of Victoria Bridge where the sisters were last seen contains many commercial and industrial units, with searches taking place in the vicinity.
The force urged businesses in and around the South Esplanade and Menzies Road area to review CCTV footage recorded in the early hours of Tuesday in case it captured anything of significance.
Drivers with relevant dashcam footage are also urged to come forward.
CI Bruce added: “We are continuing to speak to people who know Eliza and Henrietta and we urge anyone who has seen them or who has any information regarding their whereabouts to please contact 101.”
Glasgow has been a city crying out for solutions to a devastating drugs epidemic that is ravaging people hooked on deadly narcotics.
We have spent time with vulnerable addicts in recent months and witnessed first-hand the dirty, dangerous street corners and back alleys where they would inject their £10 heroin hit, not knowing – or, in many cases, not caring – whether that would be the moment they die.
“Dying would be better than this life,” one man told me.
It was a grim insight into the daily reality of life in the capital of Europe’s drug death crisis.
Scotland has a stubborn addiction to substances spanning generations. Politicians of all persuasions have failed to properly get a grip of the emergency.
But there is a new concept in town.
From Monday, a taxpayer-funded unit is allowing addicts to bring their own heroin and cocaine and inject it while NHS medical teams supervise.
A dirty needle thrown less than 100 metres from the new injection centre
It may be a UK-first but it is a regular feature in some other major European cities that have claimed high success rates in saving lives.
Glasgow has looked on with envy at these other models.
One supermarket car park less than a hundred metres from this new facility is a perfect illustration of the problem. An area littered with dirty needles and paraphernalia. A minefield where one wrong step risks contracting a nasty disease.
Drugs paraphernalia in a supermarket car park in Glasgow, near the new facility
It is estimated hundreds of users inject heroin in public places in Glasgow every week. HIV has been rife.
The new building, which will be open from 9am until 9pm 365 days a year, includes bays where clean needles are provided as part of a persuasive tactic to lure addicts indoors in a controlled environment.
There is a welcome area where people will check in before being invited into one of eight bays. The room is clinical, covered in mirrors, with a row of small medical bins.
Clean needles are provided to lure addicts to inject in a controlled environment
There are eight bays users can inject in
We were shown the aftercare area where users will relax after their hit in the company of housing and social workers.
The idea is controversial and not cheap – £2.3m has been ring-fenced every year.
The aftercare area
Read more: ‘Dying would be better than my £1,000 a month heroin addiction’
Authorities in the city first floated a ‘safer drug consumption room’ in 2016. It failed to get off the ground as the UK Home Office under the Conservatives said they would not allow people to break the law to feed habits.
The usual wrangle between Edinburgh and London continued for years with Downing Street suggesting Scotland could, if it wanted, use its discretion to allow these injecting rooms to go ahead.
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The stalemate ended when Scotland’s most senior prosecutor issued a landmark decision that it would not be in the public interest to arrest those using such a facility.
One expert has told me this new concept is unlikely to lead to an overall reduction in deaths across Scotland. Another described it as an expensive vanity project. Supporters clearly disagree.
The question is what does success look like?
The big test will be if there is a spike in crime around the building and how it will work alongside law enforcement given drug dealers know exactly where to find their clients now.
It is not disputed this is a radical approach – and other cities across Britain will be watching closely.
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