Everything you need to know before the first College Football Playoff rankings
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adminGRAPEVINE, Texas — It never fails.
Somebody will be angry. Maybe two somebodies. TCU? Clemson? Everyone outside the SEC East and Big Ten East?
When 13 people are sequestered around a table for a day and a half to sort out what college football fans have been arguing over for weeks, there’s bound to be some controversy, especially during a season in which there’s not a clear-cut No. 1 team — at least not yet. That’s hardly the only question facing this committee as it convenes for the first time this season to release its first of six weekly rankings Tuesday night (7 ET, ESPN).
Ohio State, Georgia and Tennessee will jockey for No. 1 as committee members weigh what they see on film with résumés. They will have to decide whether they should rank a one-loss team (Alabama? Oregon?) ahead of an undefeated team (TCU? Clemson?).
Who are these people with all that power?
This year’s committee comprises eight people who have collegiate playing experience, including some sitting athletic directors, two members of the College Football Hall of Fame (former Nebraska guard Will Shields and former coach Joe Taylor) and two former Division I head coaches (Taylor and Jim Grobe). There is one woman: former USA Today sportswriter Kelly Whiteside.
Selection committee members are rotated every three years, so what might have been important to last year’s group could change this season with four new faces in the room. They are directed through written protocol to consider strength of schedule, head-to-head results and outcomes against common opponents. Conference championships are the final piece of the puzzle, but the committee ranks 25 teams each week based only on what they’ve done to date.
So which teams have done the most to impress the committee so far? Here’s what to look for in the first ranking, what we could learn about the preferences of this group and how it likely will arrive at its final verdict.
Additionally, Adam Rittenberg looks at what will happen Tuesday night as opposed to what should happen, and Chris Low provides a history lesson on how the first CFP rankings each year have compared with the final rankings.
Seven key questions to watch for
1. What matters more, eye test or résumé? If schedule strength is the top priority, Tennessee could be No. 1 and just about everyone else will get dinged for it — even Georgia. Aside from Oregon, Georgia’s FBS opponents are a combined 22-26, with only South Carolina (5-3) above .500. (Counterpoint: But the Dawgs look so good!) Nobody has a better win than the Vols, who beat Alabama and are No. 1 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which says the average top-25 team would have just an 8% chance of achieving the same 8-0 record against Tennessee’s schedule. Undefeated Clemson also could be rewarded for playing a strong schedule so far, as the Tigers have three wins against potential CFP top-25 teams (NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest). But those wins all were by narrow margins.
The selection committee typically loves convincing wins, and nobody in the country has beaten teams as soundly as the Buckeyes, who lead the FBS with a points-per-game differential of plus-32. Based on that, the Buckeyes could have a case for No. 1. Ohio State’s best wins are against Notre Dame (5-3) and Penn State (6-2). Beyond that, Ohio State hasn’t beaten a Power 5 opponent with a winning record, and the Buckeyes’ other Big Ten opponents have a combined record of 15-17. Michigan’s best wins are against Maryland and Penn State. The Wolverines don’t have a Power 5 nonconference win, and the nonconference teams they beat — Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn — are a combined 8-18.
2. How much respect does the committee have for the Big 12 and Pac-12? There are five Power 5 conferences, but the SEC and Big Ten could be the only two represented in the initial top four. That will eventually change because Georgia and Tennessee face each other Saturday, and Ohio State and Michigan play in the regular-season finale. Those results will open a door, but how far will the Big 12 and Pac-12 have to climb? Oregon has made a case to be the Pac-12’s highest-ranked team, but UCLA and USC also have one loss. If any of these teams are lower than No. 16, they could be in trouble because no team has ever been ranked lower than No. 16 and made it to the playoff. TCU is the Big 12’s lone undefeated team, but everyone else in the conference has at least two losses.
3. Will any one-loss teams be ranked ahead of undefeated teams? If undefeated Clemson and TCU are ranked behind one-loss Alabama and/or Oregon, they don’t need to panic — at least not yet. Winning a conference championship game can change a team’s position dramatically. But that would be an indication that neither team has much, if any, margin for error. Being a one-loss conference champion might not be good enough for them this season. Clemson travels to Notre Dame on Saturday for what could be a tricky game, and still faces rival South Carolina. TCU has to go on the road to face Baylor and Texas. If they are behind a one-loss team from the start, the pressure to stay undefeated will rise.
4. Where are the contenders’ opponents ranked? The selection committee wants to know how many wins a team has against top-25 opponents — the committee’s top 25. Forget the Associated Press Top 25, and what you think were wins against ranked opponents (sorry, TCU). Those determinations begin now. Is beating Maryland (6-2) a top-25 win for Michigan? Can three-loss Notre Dame sneak into the rankings and help Ohio State’s case? Is three-loss Kentucky still a top-25 win for Tennessee? Is Georgia’s win against Oregon its only victory over a ranked opponent? How impressive is Clemson’s résumé after Wake Forest and Syracuse both lost Saturday? Does Alabama have any wins against ranked opponents? Its best wins are against Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi State, all of which have three losses. And if none of the Tide’s opponents are ranked, scroll back up to No. 1 on this list and say a prayer.
5. Which two-loss teams still have a chance? Watch where LSU and Utah are ranked because both can finish as two-loss conference champions. Teams ranked outside the initial top 10 have reached the playoff only twice (2014 Ohio State, which was No. 16, and 2015 Oklahoma, which was No. 15) and no two-loss team has ever made the cut. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen, especially if LSU defeats Alabama on Saturday and Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC championship game. (What loss to Florida State?!) Utah lost its season opener to Florida but has only one conference loss and can still win the Pac-12.
6. How important is defense? If the selection committee is wowed by big plays on offense, TCU, Tennessee and Ohio State will be held in high regard. If it is searching for teams playing at an elite level on both sides of the ball, the pool shrinks considerably. Georgia and Michigan are among the few teams playing championship-caliber defense. The Dawgs are No. 2 in the FBS, allowing only 10.5 points per game, and Michigan is right behind them, allowing 11.5. The Vols played their most complete game of the season Saturday, shutting down Kentucky, but it was the first time this season their defense was the story, and TCU’s defense is tied for No. 73 in the country, allowing 27.3 points per game.
7. Which fan base will be angriest? Best guess, the Horned Frogs. TCU is in the midst of a special season under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, and the explosive offense is legitimate — its 12 touchdowns of at least 50 yards lead the FBS. TCU has a habit of playing from behind, though, in large part because the defense continues to allow a lot of first-half points (more than 20 in each of the past three games). TCU is undefeated, but that might not be enough for it to land a top-four spot.
What the committee will — and should — do
The weekly CFP rankings are designed for debate and disagreement. They show where the selection committee, based on the criteria it uses, thinks teams belong. But we’ve all got our opinions about where teams belong in the rankings. Before every release, I’ll examine where teams will be ranked and where they should be ranked. Think of this as an Oscars-style audit of the CFP’s top 25.
What the CFP selection committee will do: Rank Clemson ahead of TCU
What the CFP selection committee should do: Rank TCU ahead of Clemson
Both Clemson and TCU are résumé teams more than world-beaters. Clemson has three six-point wins and one other by 10. TCU has five wins by 10 points or fewer. Clemson has three wins over teams ranked in the AP poll at the time of the game, while TCU has four.
The season point differentials are nearly identical: 138 for Clemson, 136 for TCU.
Don’t be swayed by the brands and CFP history. These teams are incredibly close, but TCU’s offense is the only consistently dominant unit on either squad. Clemson has had some fluctuation on both sides of the ball. At times, Clemson’s defense looks like a group filled with future NFL players. But the Tigers had few answers for Wake Forest, and allowed 28 first downs and 460 yards to Florida State. Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has improved from last season but boasts only one 300-yard passing performance and was benched in a come-from-behind win over Syracuse.
TCU has scored 38 points or more in every game and averaged 7.6 yards per play, nearly 2 yards better than Clemson (5.8). The Frogs have eclipsed 400 yards in every game and 450 in all but one. While Uiagalelei’s starter status remains tenuous, TCU quarterback Max Duggan has gone from a second-stringer to begin the season to a Heisman Trophy contender, passing for 2,212 yards with 22 touchdowns and only two interceptions. TCU’s defense has been far from dominant, but first-year coordinator Joe Gillespie has been excellent with in-game adjustments, and opponents average just 3.8 yards per rush.
Let’s look at the résumés. Two of Clemson’s best three wins came against teams that were exposed Saturday (Wake Forest against Louisville, Syracuse against Notre Dame). TCU’s wins over the Oklahoma schools don’t look as strong as they once did, although Oklahoma State‘s overall profile shouldn’t be written off despite its no-show at Kansas State. Speaking of the Wildcats, TCU’s win over them might be the single best victory between the teams.
Again, it’s close. But if these teams are to be evaluated blindly, as they should be, TCU deserves the edge. — Adam Rittenberg
What the first ranking really means
Over the first eight years of the four-team format, 19 of the 32 teams (59%) that were in the top four in the initial rankings ended up in the playoff. That leaves room for teams outside Tuesday’s top four to land a spot in the semifinals on New Year’s Eve.
The lowest-ranked teams in the initial rankings to make it to the final four are Ohio State in 2014, when the Buckeyes started at No. 16, and Oklahoma in 2015, when the Sooners started at No. 15. Those are the only teams that were outside the top 10 of the first CFP rankings to make that year’s playoff.
On the other end of the scale, seven of the eight No. 1 teams in the first CFP rankings and 14 of the 16 teams initially ranked in the top two have reached the playoff. The exceptions are No. 1 Mississippi State in 2014 and No. 2 LSU in 2015.
Only once, in 2020, did all of the top four teams in the initial rankings make it to the playoff.
Here’s a year-by-year look at the top four in the first rankings, where those teams landed in the final rankings and the key elements that shaped each year’s race.
2021
No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan State (10th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Oregon (14th in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Cincinnati (sixth)
Michigan State seemed to be in great shape after beating Michigan 37-33 on Oct. 30 to secure the No. 3 spot in the first rankings. But that didn’t last. The Spartans lost 40-29 the next week at Purdue and were routed 56-7 by Ohio State two weeks after that. And the Wolverines picked up steam only after their close loss in East Lansing. They reeled off five straight victories, including a 42-27 win over Ohio State (their first in the series in 10 years), and earned their first playoff appearance. Meanwhile, Cincinnati went unbeaten during the regular season to become the first Group of 5 team to make the playoff and benefited from Oregon losing twice to Utah in the final three weeks.
2020
No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Notre Dame (fourth in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Ohio State (third in final ranking)
The selection committee’s top four remained intact in the final rankings, although Texas A&M lost just one game (to Alabama) playing an all-SEC schedule during the shortened COVID-19 season and thought it deserved the No. 4 spot over a Notre Dame team that lost by 24 points to Clemson in the ACC championship game.
2019
No. 1 in first ranking: Ohio State (second in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (first in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Alabama (13th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Penn State (10th in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 3 Clemson (fifth in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (ninth)
Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts helped Oklahoma rebound from a 48-41 loss at Kansas State on Oct. 26 to win its next five games, including a 30-23 overtime win against Baylor in the Big 12 championship game, to climb up to the No. 4 spot. Georgia had been No. 4 the previous four weeks but slipped to No. 5 in the final rankings after losing 37-10 to LSU in the SEC championship game.
2018
No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: LSU (11th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Notre Dame (third in final ranking)
Other playoff team: No. 4 Oklahoma (seventh in first ranking)
Similar to the 2019 season, Hurts played a big role in how the final 2018 playoff rankings shook out, only this time he was playing for Alabama. Hurts came off the bench for an injured Tua Tagovailoa to pass for a touchdown and run for another in rallying Alabama past Georgia in the fourth quarter for a 35-28 win in the SEC championship game. That loss cost the Dawgs a spot in the playoff, as they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final rankings. It also cleared the way for Oklahoma to move from No. 5 to No. 4 after beating Texas in the Big 12 championship game for its seventh straight win.
2017
No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (fourth in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Notre Dame (14th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)
Other playoff team: No. 2 Oklahoma (fifth in first ranking)
The team that didn’t make the playoff in 2017 that most shaped the field was Auburn. In a span of three weeks to end the regular season, Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama to move to No. 2 in the next-to-last rankings despite having two losses. But in a rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship game, Auburn lost 28-7 to the Dawgs, which paved the way for both Alabama and Georgia to move back into the top four and eventually play for the national championship. Alabama had been No. 5 and Georgia No. 6 the week before in the committee’s rankings. If Auburn had won the SEC title game, the Tigers would have been the only two-loss team ever to make the playoff field.
2016
No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan (sixth in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Texas A&M (did not make final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 3 Ohio State (sixth in first ranking), No. 4 Washington (fifth)
Penn State fans still grimace over this one. The Nittany Lions finished one spot out of the playoff, No. 5 in the final rankings. That’s despite beating Ohio State head-to-head and winning their last nine games, including a 38-31 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State was the Big Ten team that made the playoff, though, as the Buckeyes had just one loss compared to the Nittany Lions’ two losses. Eventual national champion Clemson survived a 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh on Nov. 12 to finish No. 2 in the final rankings. Pitt was unranked at the time of the game but was No. 23 in the committee’s final rankings.
2015
No. 1 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (20th in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Ohio State (seventh in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Alabama (second in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 3 Michigan State (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (15th)
One of the biggest kicks during the College Football Playoff era was courtesy of Michael Geiger, whose 41-yard field goal as time expired lifted Michigan State to a 17-14 win over Ohio State, snapping the Buckeyes’ 23-game winning streak. Ohio State was No. 3 entering the Nov. 21 game. The Spartans won their next two, including a 16-13 win over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game, to make the playoff. The Iowa-Michigan State game was essentially a play-in, as the Hawkeyes came in at No. 4 and the Spartans were No. 5 in the committee’s rankings. Oklahoma made its big move up from No. 15 after beating No. 6 Baylor on the road Nov. 14, then hammering No. 6 Oklahoma State 58-23 two weeks later to win the Big 12 championship.
2014
No. 1 in first ranking: Mississippi State (seventh in final ranking)
No. 2 in first ranking: Florida State (third in final ranking)
No. 3 in first ranking: Auburn (19th in final ranking)
No. 4 in first ranking: Ole Miss (ninth in final ranking)
Other playoff teams: No. 1 Alabama (sixth in first ranking), No. 2 Oregon (fifth), No. 4 Ohio State (16th)
Three SEC teams in the initial playoff rankings? The rest of the college football world was fuming, but none of the three ended up in the final four. Eventual national champion Ohio State was the comeback story that season. The Buckeyes lost in Week 2 at home by two touchdowns to a Virginia Tech team that lost six games. Ohio State also lost a pair of quarterbacks to injury, Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett, but clawed back to secure the No. 4 spot in the final rankings, moving up from No. 5 after a 59-0 drubbing on Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Nobody was more upset that season than TCU. At the time, the Big 12 didn’t have a championship game and the Horned Frogs, who were No. 3 in the next-to-last rankings, closed the regular season by drubbing a 2-10 Iowa State team 55-3. That clinched the Frogs a share of the Big 12 championship, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee as TCU somehow fell to No. 6 in the final rankings. — Chris Low
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At SEC media days in July, Steve Sarkisian inadvertently described a good portion of college football in a single line. “I feel like when you go to Arkansas,” the Texas Longhorns coach said, “I almost at times feel like they hate Texas more than they like themselves. That’s a real rivalry.”
Later that week, Arkansas Razorbacks coach Sam Pittman confirmed Sarkisian’s take. “We hadn’t played Texas for years,” he said, “and when we played them a couple of years back, it was the most excited our fan base has been in a while. So I would say he’s probably right.”
Houston Nutt can testify. Nutt grew up in Little Rock, Arkansas. He idolized legendary Arkansas coach Frank Broyles and watched him battle Darrell Royal and the Longhorns before playing for the Razorbacks himself.
“When Texas came to play Arkansas, it was this huge, huge thing,” he told ESPN in 2019. “I remember being taught at the age of 6 outside War Memorial Stadium [in Little Rock] how to do the Hook ‘Em Horns Down sign.”
Nutt beat the Horns as the Hogs’ coach, a 27-6 win in the 2000 Cotton Bowl, Arkansas’ first bowl win since 1985. He turned around, and threw the Horns Down to the Arkansas fans.
“It was a sea of red, and they were mostly doing the Hook ‘Em Horns Down,” Nutt said. “What did I do? I can’t help it. I’m right there with ’em.”
Conference realignment has broken countless rivalries through the years. There are no Oklahoma-Oklahoma State games on the schedule; Missouri and Kansas haven’t played since 2011; Cal has traded playing UCLA for playing NC State; Oregon-Oregon State and Washington-Washington State have been moved from the traditional bottom of the schedule to the top; Pitt and West Virginia play only sporadically, as do Oklahoma and Nebraska. But in the “thank God for small favors” department, this latest round of realignment at least reignited a few rivalries to replace the further ones we lost. Longtime Big 8 and Big 12 rivals Oklahoma and Missouri played this past Saturday for the first time in 13 years (and celebrated the occasion with a particularly wacky finish), and on Nov. 30 not only will we get our first Texas vs. Texas A&M game since 2011 but it also might have enormous College Football Playoff stakes.
While we wait for Aggies-Horns, however, we get a rivalry game that, for quite a while, outshined Texas-A&M and defined Southwest Conference football. On Saturday, Texas and Arkansas will play for just the fourth time in 20 years and will play as conference rivals for the first time in 33. Most rivalries fit into certain parameters — the dueling heavyweights that split the wins over time, the heavyweight against the aspirant that measures itself by how well it’s faring against the big dog, etc. — but over the course of a few decades, Arkansas-Texas fit into multiple categories. Arkansas was the aggrieved and aspirant underdog for much of the series, but for much of the 1960s, when Royal and Broyles were at the top of their respective games, this was the biggest game in college football. Whichever flavor it takes on at a given time, this game remains spicy.
Texas is 8-1 and listed as a favorite by more than two touchdowns Saturday, while Arkansas is 5-4, having handed Tennessee its only loss of the season but suffered two blowout losses in its past four games. The Razorbacks are volatile underdogs; the Longhorns are SEC title favorites; and, for at least a little while Saturday, Razorback Stadium will be an absolute cauldron. To prepare ourselves, let’s look back at 10 of the most noteworthy games in this revived rivalry’s history.
No. 3 Texas 20, No. 14 Arkansas 0 (1946)
“Steers Trounce Tough Porkers For 5th Victory” was the headline in the Austin American. At 3-0-1, Arkansas was off to its best start in 13 years, and for the first time these teams met as mutually ranked foes. But Texas, also unbeaten and the winner of three of the past four Southwest Conference (SWC) crowns, handled both the moment and the muggy conditions better. Future pro and college football Hall of Famer Bobby Layne threw a pair of touchdown passes — one to Hub Bechtol for 50 yards, one to Jim Canady for 47 — and the Longhorns had scored all their points by halftime. This was a pretty common result: Aside from a mid-1930s run in which Texas lost its way as a program and Arkansas won five of six games between them, UT dominated the early stages of this rivalry, winning 29 of the first 35 battles. It’s been a lot closer since then.
This was the high-water mark for the “Steers,” by the way, as they would fall via road upset to both Rice and TCU, handing Arkansas only its second SWC title. The Razorbacks would head to Dallas, where they endured a 0-0 tie with LSU in the Cotton Bowl.
No. 3 Texas 13, No. 12 Arkansas 12 (1959)
After falling apart under Edwin Price in the mid-1950s, Texas righted the ship by hiring Royal, a former Oklahoma Sooner, to lead the program in 1957. In 1959 the Longhorns embarked on a run of nine top-10 finishes and two national titles in 14 years. Royal won his first two games against Arkansas by a combined 41-6, but second-year head coach Broyles also had things up and running by 1959. The Razorbacks would enjoy eight top-10 finishes in 11 years from 1959 to 1969; in this tight loss, they served notice as to what was coming.
As with much of 1950s college football, this game was decided by disasters. Both teams lost four fumbles; Arkansas recovered a loose ball to set up its first touchdown, but with Texas trailing 12-7 in the third quarter, another future Hall of Famer, Lance Alworth, muffed a punt, which set up a winning touchdown pass from Bart Shirley to Jack Collins. Between 1959 and 1969, eight of 11 Steers-Porkers games would be decided by five or fewer points.
No. 8 Arkansas 14, No. 1 Texas 13 (1964)
Texas won its first national title under Royal in 1963; the Longhorns shined in big games that season, beating No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 2 Navy by a combined 56-13, but they managed only a 17-13 win over Arkansas in Fayetteville. They advanced their winning streak to 15 games early in 1964, but Broyles was building a title-worthy squad of his own by then.
For the third time in four years, this was a matchup of top-10 teams. The most famous members of the 1964 Razorbacks were future Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones and future college and NFL title winner Jimmy Johnson, but future Arkansas coach Ken Hatfield made the difference in this one. His 81-yard punt return gave Arkansas a 7-0 halftime lead, and after Texas tied the score in the fourth quarter, Fred Marshall found Bobby Crockett for a 34-yard touchdown to put Arkansas ahead once more. With about a minute left, Ernie Koy scored on a 1-yard plunge; Royal, entirely uninterested in a tie, elected to go for two points and the win, but a pass attempt came up short. Texas’ winning streak was over, and Arkansas would go on to finish 11-0 and score a share of its first national title.
No. 3 Arkansas 27, No. 1 Texas 24 (1965)
By October 1965, Arkansas had extended its winning streak to 16 games, winning its first four games of 1965 by a combined 114-33. But Texas had leapfrogged the Razorbacks to get back to No. 1, thanks in part to a 19-0 win over Oklahoma. That put the chip firmly back on Arkansas’ shoulder.
With the extra dose of motivation — plus, perhaps, some divine intervention: Fayetteville’s First Baptist Church famously posted, “Football is only a game, eternal things are spiritual. Nevertheless, beat Texas” that week — Arkansas raced to an early lead thanks to a pair of Phil Harris fumbles. Martine Bercher recovered the first one in the end zone, then Tommy Trantham took another one 77 yards for a score.
Arkansas went up 20-0 after a Jon Brittenum-to-Bobby Crockett touchdown, but Texas charged back. It was 20-11 by halftime, and David Conway’s 34-yard field goal made it 24-20 Longhorns with just five minutes left. Brittenum scored from a yard out with 1:32 remaining, though, and Arkansas had its second of three straight wins in the series.
The Hogs would run their overall winning streak to 22 before falling to LSU 14-7 in the Cotton Bowl.
No. 1 Texas 15, No. 2 Arkansas 14 (1969)
Don’t you love it when a plan comes together? Texas usually played Oklahoma and Arkansas back-to-back in early October, but Roone Arledge, the innovative head of ABC Sports, had an idea in the offseason. Texas had finished 1968 as the hottest team in the country, winning its last nine games and averaging 37 points per game with offensive coordinator Emory Bellard’s innovative wishbone scheme. Arkansas, meanwhile, finished 10-1 with only a 39-29 loss at Texas. The Longhorns and Razorbacks finished third and sixth, respectively, in the AP poll and headed into 1969, college football’s centennial season, as obvious national title contenders.
According to Terry Frei’s “Horns, Hogs, and Nixon’s Coming,” ABC publicist (and future ESPN analyst) Beano Cook pored over the schedules and determined that Arkansas, Texas and Penn State all had good chances of going unbeaten. “My recommendation involved Penn State and Arkansas finishing the regular season with perfect records and then playing for the national title,” Cook told Frei. “I said we should move Texas-Arkansas to December 6, because I thought Texas might be undefeated then, too.” Arledge told the coaches that former Oklahoma coach and politician Bud Wilkinson could make sure that new President Richard Nixon was likely to attend the game as well. It was going to be a spectacle unlike anything college football had seen.
Sure enough, the Longhorns and Razorbacks both reached December unbeaten (as did Penn State), and Nixon was there in the stands for a game that somehow lived up to all expectations.
With Texas’ offense discombobulated early — the Horns turned the ball over on their first two drives — Arkansas scored on a short Bill Burnett run and, early in the third quarter, a 29-yard catch by star receiver Chuck Dicus. Texas quarterback James Street scored on the first play of the fourth quarter, then scored on a 2-point conversion as well. (Royal decided before the game that he once again wanted to avoid a tie at all costs.)
With the score 14-8, Arkansas drove the length of the field and was on the verge of putting the game away until Danny Lester picked off a Bill Montgomery pass in the end zone. Then came “Right 53 Veer Pass”: On a fourth-and-3 near midfield, Street threw a bomb to Randy Peschel for 44 yards.
#TBT – 1969: Texas defeats Arkansas 15-14.#ThisIsTexas #HookEm pic.twitter.com/xoqn5cbhFm
— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 17, 2019
Two plays later, Texas went ahead with a short Jim Bertelsen touchdown. Arkansas drove near field goal range in the final seconds, but Tom Campbell picked off Montgomery to ice the game, and Nixon declared Texas the national champion in the locker room after the game. (This rather annoyed Penn State’s Joe Paterno, whose team was also unbeaten.)
College football’s explosion as a television product can be ascribed to countless things, but ABC’s innovative approach to broadcasting, followed by a couple of all-time classics — this and 1971 Oklahoma-Nebraska, to name two — in short succession certainly didn’t hurt.
No. 1 Texas 42, No. 4 Arkansas 7 (1970)
The sequel often fails to live up to the billing. Almost exactly a year after the 1969 classic, Texas was riding a 29-game winning streak, while 9-1 Arkansas was ranked fourth in the AP poll and looking for revenge on national television. It didn’t quite work out.
Texas rushed for 464 yards — Bertelsen and Steve Worster combined for 315 on their own, with five of the Longhorns’ six touchdowns — and picked off Montgomery three times. After a goal-line stand by the Longhorns’ defense prevented Arkansas from tying the score early on, the floodgates opened.
The tide had again turned in the rivalry. Arkansas would finally get some measure of revenge the next year with a win in Little Rock, but after winning four of seven over the Horns between 1960-66, the Hogs won only once between 1966-79.
No. 8 Texas 28, No. 3 Arkansas 21 (1978)
A generation ended when both Royal and Broyles retired after matching 5-5-1 seasons in 1976. They both ended up hiring their younger replacements — 38-year old Fred Akers at UT, 40-year old Lou Holtz at Arkansas — as their schools’ respective athletic directors.
Both led immediate rebounds. Holtz won 30 games, Akers won 29, and both schools finished in the AP top 12 each year from 1977 to 1979. In 1978, Akers’ Longhorns played a unique role, too: spoiler. They welcomed unbeaten Arkansas to Austin and ended the Hogs’ 11-game winning streak. Two Randy McEachern touchdown passes in the final minute of the first half turned a tie into a 20-7 Texas lead, and when Arkansas charged back to take the lead, Johnny “Lam” Jones caught McEachern’s third TD pass, and Johnnie Johnson picked off one pass and broke up another on a fourth down to seal the win. This was the first of four straight upsets in the series, with the lower-ranked team winning every year from 1978 to 1981. My favorite rivalries are the ones that make no sense.
Arkansas 42, No. 1 Texas 11 (1981)
And now for maybe the most shocking result in the history of the rivalry. Akers’ Longhorns entered the 1981 game No. 1 in the country, having just blown out Barry Switzer’s Oklahoma 34-14 to move to 4-0. Arkansas, meanwhile, had fallen out of the AP rankings two weeks earlier after a road loss to an awful TCU team that would finish 2-7-2. Surely a blowout was in store, right?
This was indeed a blowout, but not the one anyone expected. Two fumbles and a safety from an airmailed punt snap gave Arkansas a quick 15-0 lead, and the Longhorns never got closer. The Hogs led 25-3 at halftime and 39-3 after three quarters; Texas actually outgained the home team 421-323, but seven turnovers sabotaged all efforts. A turnaround in the series? Not so much. The last two Akers-Holtz battles ended up a combined 64-10 in favor of the team in burnt orange. But this one was an awfully big thumb in the eye, and it would prevent the Horns from winning a national title — they ended up second in the polls behind Clemson.
Arkansas 14, Texas 13 (1991)
“Ain’t no rematch. Best thing of all, ain’t gonna be no rematch.” That’s Arkansas head coach Jack Crowe, celebrating a Hogs win in the final SWC matchup between the two rivals. He had just weathered one of the silliest games in the series to secure permanent (well, permanent-ish) bragging rights. Arkansas led 14-0 at halftime after touchdowns from Ron Dickerson Jr. and Kerwin Price, but a 14-yard Phil Brown touchdown made it 14-7 heading into the fourth quarter, and a 55-yard burst from Brown tied the score. Or at least, it should have: The Longhorns missed the PAT, then missed a 39-yard field goal attempt with 3:45 left.
The teams weren’t particularly memorable, even if the game was. Crowe’s Razorbacks went 6-6 in their last season in the SWC, while David McWilliams’ fifth and final Texas team went 5-6. The teams had weathered ups and downs, splitting the previous six meetings and producing zero top-10 finishes from 1984 to 1991 as the SWC wobbled through controversies and discontent. In 1990, the SEC announced it was adding Arkansas as part of an expansion to 10 teams; the plan had originally included adding not only the Hogs but also Texas and Texas A&M, but the state legislature intervened, and only Arkansas was on its way out the door. So was Crowe: Broyles fired him (and then tried to get away with announcing he’d resigned) after Arkansas began its SEC tenure with a 10-3 loss to The Citadel.
No. 7 Texas 22, Arkansas 20 (2004)
Since 1991, this has basically been a series of pent-up aggression: Whichever rival takes an early lead when they meet just keeps wailing away for a while. Arkansas won two bowl meetings (the 2000 Cotton Bowl and the 2014 Texas Bowl) by a combined 58-13, Texas won a home game in Austin 52-10 in 2008, and Arkansas won a home game in Fayetteville, Steve Sarkisian’s second game in charge at Texas, by a score of 40-21 in 2021.
A 2003-04 home-and-home series produced some drama, though. Arkansas upset No. 6 Texas by a 38-28 margin in 2003, using an early 21-0 run to build some space, getting 217 combined rushing yards from Cedric Cobbs and quarterback Matt Jones and scoring every time it needed to down the stretch.
But with a young quarterback by the name of Vince Young taking over for UT in 2004, the Longhorns got some revenge. Texas built a quick 9-0 advantage with a safety from a bombed punt snap and a 49-yard TD from Young to David Thomas. And from there, it was the Cedric Benson show: The star running back produced 201 yards from scrimmage and scored via both ground and air. Texas held a 22-17 lead into the fourth quarter, and after forcing an Arkansas field goal with 9:58 left, the Longhorns’ defense forced three consecutive turnovers to ice the win. Arkansas would stumble to a disappointing 5-6 record, while Mack Brown’s Longhorns would finish 11-1 before winning the national title a year later.
The most recent Hogs-Horns game might turn out to have been pretty useful. “I don’t know what Darrell Royal did to Arkansas back in the day,” Sarkisian joked with reporters this week, “but they absolutely hate our guts. And I think we learned that the first time around when we went there.”
Texas knows what it’s walking into, at least. They know to expect a Horns Down or two, though we’ll have to wait and see if Sam Pittman gets in on the act.
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