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GRAPEVINE, Texas — It never fails.

Somebody will be angry. Maybe two somebodies. TCU? Clemson? Everyone outside the SEC East and Big Ten East?

When 13 people are sequestered around a table for a day and a half to sort out what college football fans have been arguing over for weeks, there’s bound to be some controversy, especially during a season in which there’s not a clear-cut No. 1 team — at least not yet. That’s hardly the only question facing this committee as it convenes for the first time this season to release its first of six weekly rankings Tuesday night (7 ET, ESPN).

Ohio State, Georgia and Tennessee will jockey for No. 1 as committee members weigh what they see on film with résumés. They will have to decide whether they should rank a one-loss team (Alabama? Oregon?) ahead of an undefeated team (TCU? Clemson?).

Who are these people with all that power?

This year’s committee comprises eight people who have collegiate playing experience, including some sitting athletic directors, two members of the College Football Hall of Fame (former Nebraska guard Will Shields and former coach Joe Taylor) and two former Division I head coaches (Taylor and Jim Grobe). There is one woman: former USA Today sportswriter Kelly Whiteside.

Selection committee members are rotated every three years, so what might have been important to last year’s group could change this season with four new faces in the room. They are directed through written protocol to consider strength of schedule, head-to-head results and outcomes against common opponents. Conference championships are the final piece of the puzzle, but the committee ranks 25 teams each week based only on what they’ve done to date.

So which teams have done the most to impress the committee so far? Here’s what to look for in the first ranking, what we could learn about the preferences of this group and how it likely will arrive at its final verdict.

Additionally, Adam Rittenberg looks at what will happen Tuesday night as opposed to what should happen, and Chris Low provides a history lesson on how the first CFP rankings each year have compared with the final rankings.


Seven key questions to watch for

1. What matters more, eye test or résumé? If schedule strength is the top priority, Tennessee could be No. 1 and just about everyone else will get dinged for it — even Georgia. Aside from Oregon, Georgia’s FBS opponents are a combined 22-26, with only South Carolina (5-3) above .500. (Counterpoint: But the Dawgs look so good!) Nobody has a better win than the Vols, who beat Alabama and are No. 1 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric, which says the average top-25 team would have just an 8% chance of achieving the same 8-0 record against Tennessee’s schedule. Undefeated Clemson also could be rewarded for playing a strong schedule so far, as the Tigers have three wins against potential CFP top-25 teams (NC State, Syracuse and Wake Forest). But those wins all were by narrow margins.

The selection committee typically loves convincing wins, and nobody in the country has beaten teams as soundly as the Buckeyes, who lead the FBS with a points-per-game differential of plus-32. Based on that, the Buckeyes could have a case for No. 1. Ohio State’s best wins are against Notre Dame (5-3) and Penn State (6-2). Beyond that, Ohio State hasn’t beaten a Power 5 opponent with a winning record, and the Buckeyes’ other Big Ten opponents have a combined record of 15-17. Michigan’s best wins are against Maryland and Penn State. The Wolverines don’t have a Power 5 nonconference win, and the nonconference teams they beat — Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn — are a combined 8-18.

2. How much respect does the committee have for the Big 12 and Pac-12? There are five Power 5 conferences, but the SEC and Big Ten could be the only two represented in the initial top four. That will eventually change because Georgia and Tennessee face each other Saturday, and Ohio State and Michigan play in the regular-season finale. Those results will open a door, but how far will the Big 12 and Pac-12 have to climb? Oregon has made a case to be the Pac-12’s highest-ranked team, but UCLA and USC also have one loss. If any of these teams are lower than No. 16, they could be in trouble because no team has ever been ranked lower than No. 16 and made it to the playoff. TCU is the Big 12’s lone undefeated team, but everyone else in the conference has at least two losses.

3. Will any one-loss teams be ranked ahead of undefeated teams? If undefeated Clemson and TCU are ranked behind one-loss Alabama and/or Oregon, they don’t need to panic — at least not yet. Winning a conference championship game can change a team’s position dramatically. But that would be an indication that neither team has much, if any, margin for error. Being a one-loss conference champion might not be good enough for them this season. Clemson travels to Notre Dame on Saturday for what could be a tricky game, and still faces rival South Carolina. TCU has to go on the road to face Baylor and Texas. If they are behind a one-loss team from the start, the pressure to stay undefeated will rise.

4. Where are the contenders’ opponents ranked? The selection committee wants to know how many wins a team has against top-25 opponents — the committee’s top 25. Forget the Associated Press Top 25, and what you think were wins against ranked opponents (sorry, TCU). Those determinations begin now. Is beating Maryland (6-2) a top-25 win for Michigan? Can three-loss Notre Dame sneak into the rankings and help Ohio State’s case? Is three-loss Kentucky still a top-25 win for Tennessee? Is Georgia’s win against Oregon its only victory over a ranked opponent? How impressive is Clemson’s résumé after Wake Forest and Syracuse both lost Saturday? Does Alabama have any wins against ranked opponents? Its best wins are against Texas, Arkansas and Mississippi State, all of which have three losses. And if none of the Tide’s opponents are ranked, scroll back up to No. 1 on this list and say a prayer.

5. Which two-loss teams still have a chance? Watch where LSU and Utah are ranked because both can finish as two-loss conference champions. Teams ranked outside the initial top 10 have reached the playoff only twice (2014 Ohio State, which was No. 16, and 2015 Oklahoma, which was No. 15) and no two-loss team has ever made the cut. But that doesn’t mean it can’t happen, especially if LSU defeats Alabama on Saturday and Georgia or Tennessee in the SEC championship game. (What loss to Florida State?!) Utah lost its season opener to Florida but has only one conference loss and can still win the Pac-12.

6. How important is defense? If the selection committee is wowed by big plays on offense, TCU, Tennessee and Ohio State will be held in high regard. If it is searching for teams playing at an elite level on both sides of the ball, the pool shrinks considerably. Georgia and Michigan are among the few teams playing championship-caliber defense. The Dawgs are No. 2 in the FBS, allowing only 10.5 points per game, and Michigan is right behind them, allowing 11.5. The Vols played their most complete game of the season Saturday, shutting down Kentucky, but it was the first time this season their defense was the story, and TCU’s defense is tied for No. 73 in the country, allowing 27.3 points per game.

7. Which fan base will be angriest? Best guess, the Horned Frogs. TCU is in the midst of a special season under first-year coach Sonny Dykes, and the explosive offense is legitimate — its 12 touchdowns of at least 50 yards lead the FBS. TCU has a habit of playing from behind, though, in large part because the defense continues to allow a lot of first-half points (more than 20 in each of the past three games). TCU is undefeated, but that might not be enough for it to land a top-four spot.


What the committee will — and should — do

The weekly CFP rankings are designed for debate and disagreement. They show where the selection committee, based on the criteria it uses, thinks teams belong. But we’ve all got our opinions about where teams belong in the rankings. Before every release, I’ll examine where teams will be ranked and where they should be ranked. Think of this as an Oscars-style audit of the CFP’s top 25.

What the CFP selection committee will do: Rank Clemson ahead of TCU

What the CFP selection committee should do: Rank TCU ahead of Clemson

Both Clemson and TCU are résumé teams more than world-beaters. Clemson has three six-point wins and one other by 10. TCU has five wins by 10 points or fewer. Clemson has three wins over teams ranked in the AP poll at the time of the game, while TCU has four.

The season point differentials are nearly identical: 138 for Clemson, 136 for TCU.

Don’t be swayed by the brands and CFP history. These teams are incredibly close, but TCU’s offense is the only consistently dominant unit on either squad. Clemson has had some fluctuation on both sides of the ball. At times, Clemson’s defense looks like a group filled with future NFL players. But the Tigers had few answers for Wake Forest, and allowed 28 first downs and 460 yards to Florida State. Clemson quarterback DJ Uiagalelei has improved from last season but boasts only one 300-yard passing performance and was benched in a come-from-behind win over Syracuse.

TCU has scored 38 points or more in every game and averaged 7.6 yards per play, nearly 2 yards better than Clemson (5.8). The Frogs have eclipsed 400 yards in every game and 450 in all but one. While Uiagalelei’s starter status remains tenuous, TCU quarterback Max Duggan has gone from a second-stringer to begin the season to a Heisman Trophy contender, passing for 2,212 yards with 22 touchdowns and only two interceptions. TCU’s defense has been far from dominant, but first-year coordinator Joe Gillespie has been excellent with in-game adjustments, and opponents average just 3.8 yards per rush.

Let’s look at the résumés. Two of Clemson’s best three wins came against teams that were exposed Saturday (Wake Forest against Louisville, Syracuse against Notre Dame). TCU’s wins over the Oklahoma schools don’t look as strong as they once did, although Oklahoma State‘s overall profile shouldn’t be written off despite its no-show at Kansas State. Speaking of the Wildcats, TCU’s win over them might be the single best victory between the teams.

Again, it’s close. But if these teams are to be evaluated blindly, as they should be, TCU deserves the edge. — Adam Rittenberg


What the first ranking really means

Over the first eight years of the four-team format, 19 of the 32 teams (59%) that were in the top four in the initial rankings ended up in the playoff. That leaves room for teams outside Tuesday’s top four to land a spot in the semifinals on New Year’s Eve.

The lowest-ranked teams in the initial rankings to make it to the final four are Ohio State in 2014, when the Buckeyes started at No. 16, and Oklahoma in 2015, when the Sooners started at No. 15. Those are the only teams that were outside the top 10 of the first CFP rankings to make that year’s playoff.

On the other end of the scale, seven of the eight No. 1 teams in the first CFP rankings and 14 of the 16 teams initially ranked in the top two have reached the playoff. The exceptions are No. 1 Mississippi State in 2014 and No. 2 LSU in 2015.

Only once, in 2020, did all of the top four teams in the initial rankings make it to the playoff.

Here’s a year-by-year look at the top four in the first rankings, where those teams landed in the final rankings and the key elements that shaped each year’s race.

2021

No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan State (10th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Oregon (14th in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 2 Michigan (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Cincinnati (sixth)

Michigan State seemed to be in great shape after beating Michigan 37-33 on Oct. 30 to secure the No. 3 spot in the first rankings. But that didn’t last. The Spartans lost 40-29 the next week at Purdue and were routed 56-7 by Ohio State two weeks after that. And the Wolverines picked up steam only after their close loss in East Lansing. They reeled off five straight victories, including a 42-27 win over Ohio State (their first in the series in 10 years), and earned their first playoff appearance. Meanwhile, Cincinnati went unbeaten during the regular season to become the first Group of 5 team to make the playoff and benefited from Oregon losing twice to Utah in the final three weeks.


2020

No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Notre Dame (fourth in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Ohio State (third in final ranking)

The selection committee’s top four remained intact in the final rankings, although Texas A&M lost just one game (to Alabama) playing an all-SEC schedule during the shortened COVID-19 season and thought it deserved the No. 4 spot over a Notre Dame team that lost by 24 points to Clemson in the ACC championship game.


2019

No. 1 in first ranking: Ohio State (second in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (first in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Alabama (13th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Penn State (10th in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Clemson (fifth in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (ninth)

Alabama transfer quarterback Jalen Hurts helped Oklahoma rebound from a 48-41 loss at Kansas State on Oct. 26 to win its next five games, including a 30-23 overtime win against Baylor in the Big 12 championship game, to climb up to the No. 4 spot. Georgia had been No. 4 the previous four weeks but slipped to No. 5 in the final rankings after losing 37-10 to LSU in the SEC championship game.


2018

No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: LSU (11th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Notre Dame (third in final ranking)

Other playoff team: No. 4 Oklahoma (seventh in first ranking)

Similar to the 2019 season, Hurts played a big role in how the final 2018 playoff rankings shook out, only this time he was playing for Alabama. Hurts came off the bench for an injured Tua Tagovailoa to pass for a touchdown and run for another in rallying Alabama past Georgia in the fourth quarter for a 35-28 win in the SEC championship game. That loss cost the Dawgs a spot in the playoff, as they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the final rankings. It also cleared the way for Oklahoma to move from No. 5 to No. 4 after beating Texas in the Big 12 championship game for its seventh straight win.


2017

No. 1 in first ranking: Georgia (third in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Alabama (fourth in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Notre Dame (14th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)

Other playoff team: No. 2 Oklahoma (fifth in first ranking)

The team that didn’t make the playoff in 2017 that most shaped the field was Auburn. In a span of three weeks to end the regular season, Auburn beat No. 1 Georgia and No. 1 Alabama to move to No. 2 in the next-to-last rankings despite having two losses. But in a rematch with Georgia in the SEC championship game, Auburn lost 28-7 to the Dawgs, which paved the way for both Alabama and Georgia to move back into the top four and eventually play for the national championship. Alabama had been No. 5 and Georgia No. 6 the week before in the committee’s rankings. If Auburn had won the SEC title game, the Tigers would have been the only two-loss team ever to make the playoff field.


2016

No. 1 in first ranking: Alabama (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Clemson (second in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Michigan (sixth in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Texas A&M (did not make final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Ohio State (sixth in first ranking), No. 4 Washington (fifth)

Penn State fans still grimace over this one. The Nittany Lions finished one spot out of the playoff, No. 5 in the final rankings. That’s despite beating Ohio State head-to-head and winning their last nine games, including a 38-31 win over Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Ohio State was the Big Ten team that made the playoff, though, as the Buckeyes had just one loss compared to the Nittany Lions’ two losses. Eventual national champion Clemson survived a 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh on Nov. 12 to finish No. 2 in the final rankings. Pitt was unranked at the time of the game but was No. 23 in the committee’s final rankings.


2015

No. 1 in first ranking: Clemson (first in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: LSU (20th in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Ohio State (seventh in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Alabama (second in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 3 Michigan State (seventh in first ranking), No. 4 Oklahoma (15th)

One of the biggest kicks during the College Football Playoff era was courtesy of Michael Geiger, whose 41-yard field goal as time expired lifted Michigan State to a 17-14 win over Ohio State, snapping the Buckeyes’ 23-game winning streak. Ohio State was No. 3 entering the Nov. 21 game. The Spartans won their next two, including a 16-13 win over Iowa in the Big Ten championship game, to make the playoff. The Iowa-Michigan State game was essentially a play-in, as the Hawkeyes came in at No. 4 and the Spartans were No. 5 in the committee’s rankings. Oklahoma made its big move up from No. 15 after beating No. 6 Baylor on the road Nov. 14, then hammering No. 6 Oklahoma State 58-23 two weeks later to win the Big 12 championship.


2014

No. 1 in first ranking: Mississippi State (seventh in final ranking)

No. 2 in first ranking: Florida State (third in final ranking)

No. 3 in first ranking: Auburn (19th in final ranking)

No. 4 in first ranking: Ole Miss (ninth in final ranking)

Other playoff teams: No. 1 Alabama (sixth in first ranking), No. 2 Oregon (fifth), No. 4 Ohio State (16th)

Three SEC teams in the initial playoff rankings? The rest of the college football world was fuming, but none of the three ended up in the final four. Eventual national champion Ohio State was the comeback story that season. The Buckeyes lost in Week 2 at home by two touchdowns to a Virginia Tech team that lost six games. Ohio State also lost a pair of quarterbacks to injury, Braxton Miller and J.T. Barrett, but clawed back to secure the No. 4 spot in the final rankings, moving up from No. 5 after a 59-0 drubbing on Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game. Nobody was more upset that season than TCU. At the time, the Big 12 didn’t have a championship game and the Horned Frogs, who were No. 3 in the next-to-last rankings, closed the regular season by drubbing a 2-10 Iowa State team 55-3. That clinched the Frogs a share of the Big 12 championship, but it wasn’t enough to impress the committee as TCU somehow fell to No. 6 in the final rankings. — Chris Low

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How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame

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How a Sugar Bowl scramble exemplified the best of Riley Leonard at Notre Dame

The easiest way to understand why quarterback Riley Leonard has Notre Dame on the verge of its first national title game in more than a decade is to watch him run.

Really, any run will do. But perhaps the best — or at least, most recent — example is the run on third-and-7 with 5:53 left in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. The Irish were nursing a 23-10 lead, chewing up the final minutes in a game of keep-away, and Leonard needed a conversion. He took the snap, took a half-step forward, then tucked the ball and darted outside. He slid out of a tackle behind the line with a stiff-arm, then outran a defender to the perimeter. At the line to gain, he met Georgia star Malaki Starks head-on. Starks went low. Leonard leaped — flew almost — in a head-first jailbreak for the marker.

Leonard soared over Starks, landed 3 yards beyond the line-to-gain, popped up with the ball in his hand and signaled for the first down.

The crowd went wild. His teammates went wild. Leonard, the kid from a little town in southwest Alabama, at least reached something close to wild.

“Everybody keeps telling me to stop doing that,” Leonard said of the hard run. “I did it. And it worked out. But we’re in the playoffs, so it’s like — put your butt on the line.”

Notre Dame’s drive ate another four minutes off the clock, and after stuffing Georgia on downs, the Irish celebrated a Sugar Bowl win — their biggest victory in more than 30 years. Now, their next biggest game is a date with Penn State in the playoff semifinals on Thursday in the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN).

Notre Dame is here for many reasons, but perhaps the biggest one is Leonard’s drive to win at all costs. Not that anyone doubted Leonard’s competitiveness when he arrived at Notre Dame in January as an injured transfer from Duke. But what he has shown in the past three months since the Irish last lost a football game — a loss Leonard took full responsibility for — is that he’ll put his butt, his shoulder, his head and anything else he needs to on the line if it means winning a football game.

“It’s in his DNA,” said offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock. “I knew he was a competitive guy. That’s a strong trait we knew he had. But it’s so much greater than I’d imagined. He’s a winner, and he brings people around him to his level. And I think that’s the biggest compliment you can give a quarterback.”

Those runs like the Sugar Bowl scramble are the height of playoff football, but Leonard has been doing this since he was young. He played some wide receiver growing up, and he loved going across the middle. He torments defenders at practice, teammate RJ Oben said, because he’ll run hard even wearing a noncontact jersey. He played baseball, too, and his father, Chad, jokes that Riley knew how to slide feet-first then, but he refuses to do it on the football field.

“I hold my breath waiting for him to get up,” said Heather Leonard, his mother, “but when they need something, he’s always going to get it.”

It’s the dichotomy of Riley’s approach. He is overlooked, polite, smiley and understated, and yet at the same time he’s utterly driven to win at a level even other players find hard to capture.

Perhaps that’s the secret to those runs. He’s underestimated, and he’s relentless.

“I don’t understand why I’m hard to tackle, honestly,” Leonard said. “I don’t have very good juke moves. I’m very tall. Not intimidating, at least on the field. But guys just miss.”

Plenty of people missed on Leonard coming out of high school.

Back in Fairhope, Alabama, he played football and baseball, but basketball was his passion. College basketball was the dream until COVID-19 hit and scuttled Leonard’s best opportunities to impress college recruiters. That’s when he started to seriously consider football as an alternative. Turns out, one of his coaches was pals with former Duke coach David Cutcliffe, who liked what he saw in Leonard. Duke was Leonard’s only FBS scholarship offer.

Leonard’s first college start came on Nov. 13, 2021. It was 17 degrees in Blacksburg, Virginia. Winds swirled, and the crowd was ferocious. Leonard was so out of sorts, he forgot his mouthguard leaving the locker room, then amid the team’s run onto the field for kickoff, he turned and retreated, pushing his way through a sea of charging teammates to retrieve it, like an overwhelmed performer retreating from the stage.

Leonard threw for just 84 yards in that game. Three weeks later, Cutcliffe was fired at Duke after the team finished 3-9. Mike Elko arrived for 2022, and Leonard opened fall camp that year in the midst of a QB competition, which he narrowly won before the opener.

He won that game. Then another. And he kept on winning.

Duke finished 2022 a surprising 9-4, Leonard started gaining legitimate attention from NFL scouts, and after upending Clemson in the 2023 opener, the attention reached a fever pitch.

None of it fazed the kid from Fairhope.

Back in his high school days, he began a tradition with his mom. He wanted to avoid the pitfalls of success and stay grounded in the work, so he asked her to text him with the same message before every game: “You suck.” He now wears a green wristband with the same words. Leonard’s biggest fear has always been forgetting how hard it is to win. Appreciating the difficulty is his secret weapon.

Football delivered another reminder of its fickle nature just as the wave of Riley-mania reached its zenith in Durham. Duke was 4-0, and Leonard had the Blue Devils on the brink of a program-defining win over Notre Dame. But the Irish broke a late run to take the lead, Leonard injured his ankle in a failed comeback attempt, and over the next eight months, he struggled to get back on the field, endured three surgeries, and ultimately transferred to South Bend, joining the program that had effectively ended his miraculous run at Duke.

For Leonard, Notre Dame represented a chance to finish his college career at a level that might have seemed unimaginable when it began.

“I wanted an opportunity to reach my potential as a player,” he said. “I’m at a point in my career now where I have the most confidence in my game. I understand this offense probably more than any offense I’ve ever been in.”

It didn’t start out that way though.

Notre Dame opened its season with a hard-fought win over Texas A&M, but one in which Leonard and the offense struggled to move the ball through the air. A week later, the one-dimensional attack proved costly. Northern Illinois‘ defense utterly flummoxed Leonard, and the Huskies stunned Notre Dame 16-14. It was arguably the biggest upset of the college football season, and any hopes for the playoff were on life support.

That version of Riley Leonard looked lost.

“I don’t even think I’d recognize the player that was playing earlier on in the season,” he said recently.

Leonard isn’t into making excuses, but he had missed all of spring practice and much of the summer. He simply hadn’t had enough reps with his new team. He was frustrated — even if he rarely let it show, Heather said.

“That was one of the hardest weeks of his life,” Heather said. “It definitely took a toll on him, but he also knew he had to move on.”

Leonard promised his team he’d be better. He took the blame for the loss, and he assured his teammates he’d approach the rest of the season the same way he does those third-down runs. He would leave nothing in the tank.

“He took it on his shoulders,” said tight end Mitchell Evans. “You could see it in the way he practices, his mindset, his confidence — he has grown in a remarkable way. That’s what you have to do to be the Notre Dame quarterback.”

After four games, Leonard had yet to throw a touchdown pass in a Notre Dame uniform.

But in the 10 games since, Leonard has completed 68% of his throws, has an 81.1 Total QBR, and has 17 touchdown passes to just four picks. And the 13-1 Irish haven’t lost again.

“Riley has shaken off the ‘he’s just a runner’ thing people were saying about him,” said tailback Jeremiyah Love, “and we’re more explosive in the passing game. The running game is better than it was, and the offensive line has come together. We’re way better now.”

And so what if it was still a run — a hard, physical, acrobatic run — that served as Leonard’s highlight in Notre Dame’s biggest win of the year? He was hurting after the NIU loss because he felt like he had let his team down, but he had never listened to any of the criticism about his arm. He said he doesn’t care how he’s perceived.

“The moment I start to say I need to throw this many yards or score this many touchdowns is when I get off track,” he said. “My job is to win the football game however that may look.”

He is two victories away from claiming his place among the greatest winners in the history of one of college football’s most storied programs. That’s a long way from the basketball courts in Fairhope.

But Leonard has never paid much attention to how far off his destination might seem. He likes to dream big, and if there are obstacles in his way, well, Georgia’s defenders found out how that goes.

The one thing that has changed in the waning moments of his unlikely college football career is Leonard is trying to take some time to reflect.

“I don’t think I would’ve written the story any differently,” Leonard said. “It’s cool now to go back and look at it. I don’t really do that too often, but I’m very proud of the person I’ve grown into.”

He still hasn’t watched film from that NIU game, but he said he will once the year’s over, because it’s a moment he now cherishes, one that helped him get to where he is now. It’s supposed to be difficult, he said. That’s what makes it fun.

“I try to remind myself to appreciate it — like, you’re living your dream,” he said. “I don’t want to live my dream and then end up thinking you shouldn’t have taken that for granted. But moments like these make me appreciate it.”

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Can Penn State coach James Franklin win the big one?

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Can Penn State coach James Franklin win the big one?

There’s no sugarcoating it: As Penn State‘s coach, James Franklin owns an abysmal 4-19 record against opponents ranked in the Associated Press top 10 — and is just 3-10 in such games when his team is also in the top 10.

It’s a mark that saw a small but significant boost with Penn State’s resounding 31-14 College Football Playoff quarterfinal win against No. 8-ranked Boise State in the VRBO Fiesta Bowl, but with each step forward in the CFP bracket comes a greater opportunity — and louder doubters about Franklin’s ability to beat the best.

As the Big Ten runner-up and No. 6 seed in the College Football Playoff, the narrative surrounding Penn State was that they had arguably the easiest path to the national title — a home game against overmatched No. 11 seed SMU, followed by a matchup against Mountain West Conference champion and No. 3 seed Boise State. The Nittany Lions outscored their first two playoff opponents by a combined 69-24.

Now Franklin is two wins away from the school’s first national championship since 1986, but in order to win it, he has to do something that has eluded him during most of his career: beat a top-5 team. He is 1-14 at Penn State against AP Top-5 teams, the lone win coming in 2016 against No. 2 Ohio State. By comparison, former Alabama coach Nick Saban (30-16), former Ohio State coach Urban Meyer (14-5) and Georgia coach Kirby Smart (11-7) all have winning records against AP Top-5 opponents, according to ESPN Research. Ohio State coach Ryan Day, though, is 5-6 against them, and former Penn State coach Joe Paterno was 3-12 in his first 15 games against AP Top-5 teams at Penn State.

Franklin is also 0-5 against teams ranked in the top five by the CFP selection committee, and he has lost those games by an average of 20.4 points according to ESPN Research. The Nittany Lions will face Notre Dame (No. 3 AP/No. 5 CFP) on Thursday in a College Football Playoff semifinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) in what is undoubtedly the biggest game of Franklin’s career.

Franklin “understands” his fans’ frustration. He declined to comment for this story but said this following a 20-13 loss to No. 4 Ohio State on Nov. 2: “Nobody is looking in the mirror harder than I am. I’ve said this before, but 99% of the programs across college football would die to do what we’ve been able to do in our time here.”

Despite his struggles against top teams, Franklin enters the Orange Bowl with a record of 101-41 and is 64-33 in the Big Ten over the past decade in State College. That includes five top-10 finishes, a Big Ten title (2016) and regular appearances in New Year’s Six bowl games. Under Franklin, Penn State joins Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State as the only programs that have ranked in the selection committee’s final top 12 at least seven of the past nine seasons.

He has six years left on his contract and the support of his administration.

“I’m not going to give credence to the criticism, because I see it differently,” said Penn State athletic director Patrick Kraft, who was hired at Penn State on July 1, 2022 after serving two years as the athletic director at Boston College. “When I got here, I was really surprised where just the infrastructure and how everything was set up, how behind we really were. Yes, wins and losses are what we are all judged on, but I will tell you, the culture of that building and the young men he brings in and graduates are second to none.

“You don’t see behind the curtain as a fan or just someone watching,” Kraft said, “and when you get behind the curtain, the thing that oozes out for me is culture and family. That’s really how it’s built, but the infrastructure behind it wasn’t matching that culture and we still have a ways to go. So yes, we want to win every single game — that’s the expectation for every program, but to see what he has done and that consistency is what’s remarkable to me.”

As a former Big Ten head coach who spent seven seasons leading Indiana, first-year Penn State defensive coordinator Tom Allen has studied the Nittany Lions from the inside out. He has game-planned against Franklin, and now he’s trying to help Franklin win his first national title. Allen heard Franklin’s critics when he was at Indiana, and he has heard them again as a member of Franklin’s staff.

“Now that I’m here and I see the behind-the-scenes and the day-to-day and see how much of a bulldog he is — that’s the word I use — he’s a bulldog for the details and the little things and just being on top of everything,” Allen said. “To me, those criticisms, they’re not fair, but until you win those big games, they’re going to be there. And I think we all as coaches understand that.”

What Franklin has accomplished so far is often overshadowed by what he hasn’t. According to ESPN Research, when Franklin won his 100th game at Penn State in the first-round against SMU, he became the fourth FBS coach to win 100 games at a single school since he headed to State College in 2014. The career milestone put him in elite company, joining Dabo Swinney at Clemson (129 since 2014), Nick Saban at Alabama (127 from 2014-23) and Kirby Smart at Georgia (105 since 2016).

There’s one thing separating Franklin from the rest of the group, though — multiple national titles.

“We don’t run away from the expectation,” Kraft said. “Being the head coach of Penn State, there’s so much scrutiny on him and he handles it really well internally. He and I are partners in this.”

One current Big Ten head coach said the expectations of Franklin should mirror the resources he has to work with.

“Ryan Day has been in championships, Clemson has been in championships, Bama has won them, Michigan has won them,” he said. “If the Penn State expectation is they should have at least played for championships in 10 years of his tenure, then no, he’s not successful, right? If their expectation is, ‘Hey, we only have resourced him to be a 10-win team, January 1 bowl team, right at the bottom of the blue bloods from a resource standpoint — which I don’t know — then yeah, he matches the expectations of a 10-win guy. If you’re a blue blood, are you being resourced like Clemson, like Michigan, like Ohio State, like the people we’re comparing them to, because it’s not fair to have that expectation if he hasn’t had the resources.”

Kraft said so much of Penn State’s growth under Franklin has come behind the scenes with things like working to build the budget for NIL, salaries for assistant coaches, stadium renovations and improvements for Penn State’s student-athletes in all sports in areas such as mental health, nutrition and travel — all things that ultimately contribute to winning a national title but happen off the field.

“You have to build the infrastructure in-house,” Kraft said. “That is what I think has really improved is allowing him — and all of our sports — to go and do the things they need to do internally to get to the championship level.”

A second Big Ten head coach said the most noticeable improvements with Penn State and Franklin this year are twofold: the hire of two proven coordinators in Allen and offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, and Franklin’s overall growth as a head coach in certain situations.

“James has surrounded himself, in my opinion, with maybe the best coordinator combo in our league,” the source said. “Now James has been able to manage games and do the things he’s good at for the first time. He’s at a different level as a head coach.

“I get it, I get the narrative,” the coach said, “but that’s probably based on more of the past than the present. Even him having a better understanding of how you’ve got to use your players. He’s been at Penn State so long, he’s always been the favorite, so when he gets in these games where he’s the underdog, you’ve got to not only play different, you’ve got to strategize different. And when he ran that fake punt against Minnesota … I don’t think he’s ever had to do that before, and he’s kind of realizing, this is what I’ve got to do to win this game. I can’t just win it on my talent alone. And there’s a learning curve for that.”

Kotelnicki said Franklin doesn’t get enough credit for being as consistently good as he has. From 2016 to 2019, Franklin led Penn State to 42 wins, the most in program history for the Big Ten era, and a school-record 28 conference wins.

“It’s really hard to win, and to do it over a decade like he has as a head football coach here, it’s really hard,” Kotelnicki said in the Nittany Lions’ locker room following their win against Boise State. “I’ve had the opportunity in my life to work with some pretty good head coaches. He’s in elite company for sure. So I don’t know if [beating Boise State] is going to silence the critics — probably not. … But I hope it does [calm down] a little bit for his sake. He deserves a little, ‘Alright, OK, I guess he’s OK.'”

Penn State’s defense was more than “OK” in the Fiesta Bowl win against Boise State, and it will have to play at a championship-caliber level for Franklin to improve his record and advance against the Irish. According to ESPN Research, the defense is at the heart of Penn State’s problem in previous top-10 matchups. The Nittany Lions have allowed 31 points per game in those matchups and 422 total yards. The defense has also allowed 190 rushing yards per game under Franklin in top-10 matchups.

Against Boise State and Ashton Jeanty, the Heisman runner-up was held to a season-low 104 rushing yards. That trend will need to continue: Notre Dame has relied on its running game this season, ranking in the top five in yards per rush and rushing touchdowns.

Penn State will be playing its third AP Top-5 matchup of the season, losing the previous two games against Ohio State and Oregon. The program’s woes run deeper than Franklin, too: The Nittany Lions haven’t won a top-five matchup since 1999 against No. 4 Arizona.

“You just have to do a great job of blocking that out, but also not being afraid to dig and find ways to create change,” Allen said. “That’s what I see him doing, is, ‘Hey, what can we do?’ and there’s this constant evaluation of how we practice, the game plans if something doesn’t go a certain way. I see him just being so relentless in that as the leader of our program. So to me, I just think it’s a matter of time.”

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‘I get to be one of the funny trivia answers!’ Meet the only NHL teammate of Ovechkin and Gretzky

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'I get to be one of the funny trivia answers!' Meet the only NHL teammate of Ovechkin and Gretzky

Wayne Gretzky scored 894 goals in 1,487 career NHL games. Alex Ovechkin is poised to shatter that record, having scored 872 times in 1,451 games through Wednesday night.

That’s a combined 2,938 career games played between the two players, sharing the ice with hundreds of teammates, spanning from Hall of Famers to one-night wonders. Yet there’s only one player in NHL history that was a teammate to both Wayne Gretzky and Alex Ovechkin.

His name is Mike Knuble, a winger who played 16 hardscrabble seasons in the NHL. And he was as surprised as you are to learn he’s the unexpected link between two hockey legends whose careers didn’t overlap.

“I get to be one of the funny trivia answers! Got to put that in Trivial Pursuit or a bar game or something,” he told ESPN recently, with a laugh.

As Ovechkin neared the Gretzky record, Knuble started wondering whether he was the only player to have skated with both the Washington Capitals star and The Great One as a teammate.

“I kind of was spitballing with somebody: ‘Well, who’s played in Washington and with the New York Rangers that’s also about my age?’ I’m like, ‘There’s nobody really. So maybe it’s just me,'” he said.

Knuble was a 26-year-old forward with the New York Rangers in 1998-99, the final season of Gretzky’s career. He played three seasons with Ovechkin in Washington (2009-10 through 2011-12) before finishing his career at age 40 with the Philadelphia Flyers.

“The fact that Ovi is nipping at Gretzky’s heels is just crazy,” Knuble said.

Gretzky was in his elder statesman era with the Rangers, and Knuble got to witness the mania when it was announced he was retiring after 20 seasons. But Knuble was the elder statesmen when he arrived in Washington to find a 24-year-rock star in Ovechkin, who had just won his first Hart Trophy and scoring title, as the face of the Capitals’ “Young Guns” resurgence.

“I just felt so fortunate to play with them. They’re both such superstars,” he said.

In the process, Knuble became someone uniquely qualified to compare, contrast and analyze the two greatest goal scorers in NHL history as teammates.


KNUBLE WAS DRAFTED 76th overall by the Detroit Red Wings in 1991. After four seasons at the University of Michigan, and some time in the AHL, he joined the Red Wings as a rookie in 1996-97.

Knuble was no goal-scoring slouch, tallying 278 times in 1,068 NHL games, but he had a different approach to that art than Gretzky or Ovechkin did: He was famous for parking himself inches from the goaltender’s crease and scoring short-distance goals while being mauled by opposing defensemen.

“[Hockey Hall of Famer] Dino Ciccarelli was the pioneer of that. He was undersized, under-gunned and got the s— beat out of him all the time,” Knuble said. “He scored 600 goals back when they could be really mean to you. I went [to the crease] when they weren’t as mean.”

Knuble chuckles when he sees goal-scoring heat maps in coaches’ offices that show an intense crimson around the crease.

“I’ll be talking to young players and I draw the East Coast of the United States. I draw Florida and then I draw Cuba and then a draw a big shark further away,” he said. “And I’m like, ‘If all the fish are right here between Florida and Cuba, why would you be swimming all the way over here if you’re a shark and you’re hungry? All the fish are right here! Go to where the fish are!'”

For most of the 1980s and 1990s, the fish were wherever Wayne Gretzky had the puck on his stick.

Knuble had never met Gretzky before, but he was a fan — not just as a kid growing up in Toronto, but as an adult playing in the NHL.

Before the 1998 Olympics, he cornered Red Wings captain Steve Yzerman in the weight room to sheepishly ask if he might bring home a signed Gretzky stick from Nagano, Japan. Knuble was stunned when Yzerman returned with a personalized autographed stick, the butt end burned with an Olympic logo that incorporated Gretzky’s initials into it.

A few months later, the Red Wings traded Knuble to the Rangers for a second-round draft pick. Which meant the guy asking for Wayne Gretzky’s autograph was now Wayne Gretzky’s teammate.

“You see his jersey and you see your jersey, and it’s the same color as his. And you’re just like, ‘Holy s— here we go,'” Knuble said. “I remember saying my hellos and then just sitting in my stall, not talking to him for a couple of weeks. I was quiet on the bus with him, too. I’d just sit and listen to his recollections about his time in Edmonton, dropping names and telling stories.”

Time with Gretzky away from the rink was fleeting. There were cities on the road where Gretzky could grab dinner with his teammates and not get mobbed — mostly “non-traditional” hockey markets, according to Knuble — but everywhere else, fans would swarm the most famous hockey player in the world.

“He’d give the time, but it wasn’t going to be too much time. He knew how to handle that balance,” he said.

Gretzky wasn’t a boisterous presence in the Rangers’ dressing room. That’s partially because the Rangers had other leaders to whom he would defer, such as captain Brian Leetch. “He wasn’t trying to outshine anyone. But everyone knew that when he wanted to say something, the floor was his,” Knuble said.

Knuble wasn’t a primary linemate for Gretzky during his time with the Rangers. He’d watch from the bench as The Great One operated from his office behind the opponent’s net, and wait for his chance to join the Gretzky scoring ledger.

“You’re just hoping that he scored and you got a point with him. You just want to hear your name linked with him,” said Knuble, who scored two goals assisted by Gretzky in 1998-99.

Those goals by Knuble were some of the final points collected by Gretzky in his legendary career. That season would be his last.

The Rangers weren’t going to make the playoffs that season. As the games dwindled on the schedule, the speculation about Gretzky’s future grew louder. Knuble remembers the Rangers players purposefully avoiding the topic inside the room, but then it happened: It was officially announced very late in the season that Gretzky would be retiring.

The Rangers’ next game after that announcement was at the Ottawa Senators on April 15, 1999.

“We were in Ottawa and the Canadian National Guard surrounded our hotel because it was his last game in Canada,” Knuble recalled. “I’ll never forget coming out of the hotel for the game and seeing guys with rifles.”

The hotel restricted access to guests only, having people show some form of ID to get into the lobby, which was still jam-packed with people trying to find Gretzky. The Rangers’ bus would park in front of the hotel, drawing all of the attention from fans as Gretzky found another exit.

“Wayne was always really good about going out the back door, sending diversion out in the front, and then he’d slip out,” Knuble said. “And I’m sure Alex got good at playing those games, too.”


KNUBLE CURRENTLY COACHES teenage hockey players in Michigan. They know about his NHL career. They’ll ask whether he has Alex Ovechkin in his phone contacts list.

“I’ll show it to them and tell them that he’s probably changed his number like eight times. But go ahead and call him. Go knock yourselves out,” he said, laughing. “But I’m super proud to have it. The kids appreciate that. It’s a good cocktail party conversation, too.”

Knuble was in his third NHL season when he became Gretzky’s teammate. He was entering his 13th season when he signed with the Capitals as a free agent in 2009, having previously battled against Ovechkin & Co. as a member of the Flyers.

As much as he knew about Gretzky before becoming his teammate, Knuble knew little about Ovechkin before joining him.

“There was a little bit of mystery,” he said.

Ovechkin had scored 219 goals in his first four NHL seasons and would add another 50 goals to that total in Knuble’s first season in Washington. He skated fast, blasted more shots than anyone in the league and hit like a truck. He was a force of nature. Knuble said one of his biggest challenges as a teammate was not to be in awe of Ovechkin’s abilities.

“As a player you had to be very careful that you didn’t defer to him too much. You knew what he could do, but it wasn’t like ‘force it, force it, force it’ to him all the time,” he said. “I think you had to get him the puck when you could and do some of the legwork. But when you had a chance — and you were in a high-end, high percentage scoring area — you had to shoot the puck. You couldn’t defer all the time.”

Knuble assisted on 14 goals by Ovechkin during his 220 games with the Capitals.

“I think the biggest thing is you didn’t want to slow him down. He’s trending to be a hundred-point guy, and now you’re playing with him, you’re linked to him, you don’t want his percentage go down,” Knuble explained. “If he’s down to an 80-point pace, well, who are they going to point the finger at? It’s not because of him, it’s because of me. So you didn’t want to be that guy.”

Off the ice, the two didn’t spend much time together. Knuble was older and had children. Ovechkin hung with younger players, a crew who all grew up together on the Capitals. Knuble understood the dynamics.

“When I was in Detroit, it wasn’t like I was hanging out with Yzerman. You’re with your peers,” he said. “Maybe there’s the odd time you end up at the same restaurant or you have a team event where you hang out, but your boys are your boys.”

As he watched Ovechkin continue to pile on goals, playing with a variety of teammates — Knuble, for the record, thinks Ovechkin might already have the record if Nicklas Backstrom could have remained healthy — he figured Ovechkin had a shot at catching Gretzky if his body cooperated.

“If he stayed healthy, with the way he finishes … could he be second or third all-time? And then he stayed really healthy and kept playing well,” Knuble said. “He’s always been blessed with great health on the ice, where nothing super fluky happened to him. The most impressive thing about him is his longevity.”

Ovechkin’s maturity was a factor in that longevity, according to Knuble.

“I think Alex has just stood the test of time a little bit. You’re a young guy, you kind of live hard on and off the ice, and then when you’re older you realize, ‘I can’t be doing this as much,'” he said.

Finally hoisting something other than an individual trophy also helped.

“I think winning a Stanley Cup was really big for him, too. I think that was a big feather in his cap. You don’t want to be a golfer that’s never won a major, you know?” Knuble said. “I think him winning the team thing was just basically the last box he needed to check.”

Ovechkin is now older (39) than Gretzky was (38) when Knuble played with him in New York. The Capitals captain has matured, but Knuble still sees that spark of youth in his game as he chases Gretzky’s record.

“It’s fun to see him just happy, see him in his joy,” he said. “I think when he was younger, the joy that carried him was the most noticeable thing. Eventually you get older and the joy settles down a little bit, but still he plays with so much of it.”


KNUBLE ADMITS THAT Ovechkin and Gretzky are “different in the way they do their things,” but share one key similarity: the way the understood their responsibilities in selling the sport they love.

“Wayne was very good at being an ambassador of the game. He knew that it’s super inconvenient for him, but he’s going to do it with a smile on his face. He’s not going to bitch about it. It’s his job to move the game forward,” he said. “Alex is pretty good about that stuff too. And it was hard for him. He’s not a North American, but certainly Alex has been a great ambassador of the game here.”

Part of being an ambassador of the game is inspiring subsequent generations to pick up a stick or watch a game. Knuble said both players accomplished that during their careers.

“They’ve both been so good to the game, to the NHL and great role models for kids,” he said. “Wayne revamped the game in his way. And then Ovi revamped it again with his way — a little more flash, a little more flare. We all copied Wayne and then kids today copied Ovi.”

There have been other all-time players who starred in their respective eras, from Mario Lemieux to Sidney Crosby to Connor McDavid. But Knuble believes there’s something different about the way Gretzky and Ovechkin have broken through as sports celebrities.

“People coast to coast in the United States know who [Ovechkin] is, and what more can you ask for, especially as a hockey player?” he said. “You go to California and you can be on the beach there playing volleyball and be like, ‘Who’s Alex Ovechkin?’ And they’ll be like, ‘Oh, that Russian dude in D.C., right? Hockey player?’ If you can get that kind of thing, then that’s a successful athlete.”

As Knuble watches the Ovechkin record chase unfold, his thoughts are with Gretzky. He believes The Great One has shown exemplary class in watching an all-time mark potentially fall. Like Gordie Howe did when Gretzky chased his records, Gretzky has blessed Ovechkin’s own record pursuit.

“Wayne’s such an ambassador, saying, ‘Hey, I can’t wait to see this come to fruition. I can’t wait to see him chase it down. I’m going to be there and be thrilled for him when the time comes.’ And that’s not a lie. That’s not bulls—. And it’s just great,” Knuble said. “The league is thrilled that another generational player has come through. It’s just crazy that this even remotely had a chance to happen.”

Almost as crazy as an NHL veteran who kicked around with five different franchises being the only player to have called the top two goal scorers in league history as his teammates.

“I was on the ice with both. Got sticks signed by both. Got to say that I spent with each of them,” he said. “Again, I just feel so fortunate.”

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