College Football Playoff rankings: What we learned, a hypothetical 12-team field and the Anger Index
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ESPN staff
GRAPEVINE, Texas — The College Football Playoff selection committee rewarded undefeated Tennessee with the top spot in its first rankings of the 2022 season, marking the first time in school history the Volunteers entered the top four.
The Vols were followed by No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Georgia and No. 4 Clemson.
Now that the first of six rankings to determine this year’s four-team playoff have been released, let’s look at some broad takeaways, who should be mad, who would win if these four teams made it to the CFP and how a 12-team bracket would look.
Jump to:
Anger Index | Picks | 12-team bracket
Georgia needs to win more than the Vols on Saturday
Tennessee is at the top of the college football world.
It has the best résumé in the country and the best win — against Alabama. If Tennessee loses to Georgia on Saturday, it’s possible the Vols still finish the season 11-1 with a win against the SEC champions, should Alabama run the table.
If Tennessee wins on Saturday, it could lose to Alabama in the SEC championship game and still finish in the top four, having split with the Crimson Tide and finished as the league’s runner-up.
Georgia appears to have less margin for error, even at No. 3. (Though the No. 3 spot is the unofficial CFP jinx, as only one team ranked No. 3 in the initial rankings — Clemson in 2020 — has made the playoff.)
If Georgia loses on Saturday and doesn’t win the SEC East, it will need to hope desperately that it can finish in the top four without winning its division. Right now, it’s clinging to the lopsided season-opening victory against Oregon to boost its résumé. Without that, Georgia’s opponents are currently 22-26, with the best win against three-loss South Carolina. Without a victory against Tennessee, Georgia would need to hope wins against remaining opponents Mississippi State, Kentucky and Georgia Tech can help compensate for no division title, and none of those teams is currently in the CFP top 25.
Michigan’s nonconference schedule is holding it back
Michigan needs to beat Ohio State.
With Tennessee and Georgia playing each other on Saturday, there’s obviously going to be some room in the top four if Georgia loses and falls out; but if Georgia wins, you could still be looking at two SEC teams in the top four. That’s not ideal for a Michigan team sitting on the bubble behind an undefeated Clemson squad rolling toward an ACC title.
Without a win against the Buckeyes, it’s going to be hard for the committee to justify moving Michigan up. The Wolverines’ nonconference schedule (Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn) was abysmal, and right now, their only win against a CFP top 25 team is No. 15 Penn State (though they get a shot at No. 16 Illinois this month). The same can be said for Ohio State as far as the Buckeyes’ best win, but clearly the committee likes what it sees on film from Ohio State more than that of Michigan.
Pac-12 isn’t done yet
The Pac-12 hasn’t had a team reach the CFP since Washington in 2016, but with No. 8 Oregon and No. 9 USC both ranked in the top 10, it’s possible the league can snap its drought.
Considering Tennessee and Georgia still have to play each other and that Michigan and Ohio State will meet, there will be movement above them. It’s also possible Alabama and Clemson lose between now and Selection Day, as Alabama has two tough trips to LSU and Ole Miss looming, and Clemson is at Notre Dame on Saturday and still has to face rival South Carolina before the ACC championship game.
The Pac-12 would be helped if TCU loses, which is possible because the Horned Frogs have to win on the road against both Baylor and No. 24 Texas. Oregon has some major opportunities to impress the selection committee, which ranked Utah No. 14 and Oregon State No. 23, opponents the Ducks still have to face during the regular season. It’s also possible that USC and Oregon face each other in the conference championship game, almost guaranteeing them both another ranked opponent. Oregon has to overcome its bad loss against Georgia, though; the 49-3 defeat would be by far the largest for a team making the CFP.
No. 12 UCLA isn’t out of the mix with one loss, either. In 2014, Ohio State was No. 16 in the CFP’s initial ranking — and it went on to win the national title. No team has started out lower than that.
TCU and the Big 12 should be concerned
The undefeated Frogs are behind one-loss Alabama. And they arguably have a better résumé than the Tide. That seems to mean TCU needs to finish as an undefeated conference champion in order to have a shot. The Frogs’ best wins are against No. 13 Kansas State and No. 18 Oklahoma State. — Heather Dinich
Anger Index
It’s outrage season in college football, and with Tuesday’s release of the first College Football Playoff rankings of 2022, there’s plenty of anger to go around.
Here’s Week 10’s College Football Playoff Anger Index.
1. TCU (8-0), ranked seventh: Yes, we know the argument. TCU just hasn’t been dominant. It’s a case that might hold water if dominance was the criteria for the teams just ahead of Horned Frogs.
TCU has had eight second-half drives this season when trailing. That’s actually one fewer than No. 4 Clemson.
TCU has three wins by seven points or less, but the team one spot ahead — Alabama — has two and a loss.
TCU hasn’t proven enough to overcome some of the obvious drawbacks. But hey, Michigan’s seven-point win over Maryland — the Wolverines’ second-best opponent this year — must’ve really impressed the committee.
The folks in the committee room claim to care only about résumé — who have you beaten? — and don’t look ahead or consider past seasons. So how then to make heads or tails of TCU’s No. 7 placement?
4:20
ESPN’s college football crew discusses the rankings reveal for the Top 6 of the College Football Playoff.
The Horned Frogs have four wins over teams that were ranked. That’s the same as Michigan, Georgia and Alabama combined.
The Horned Frogs have four road wins, double the tally for Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan or Alabama.
The Horned Frogs have run 20 offensive plays in the fourth quarter when trailing. That’s just three more than Georgia, and they all came against better opposition than Missouri.
The Horned Frogs are No. 3 in ESPN’s strength of record, which measures the odds an average top-25 team would have the same record vs. the same schedule. That’s ahead of No. 5 Georgia, No. 6 Alabama and No. 7 Michigan.
But there’s a bigger debate here on how schedule difficulty should be considered. Yes, Tennessee and Georgia have marquee wins, and there’s a reasonable chance TCU would’ve lost had it played Oregon or Alabama. But is it tougher to play a schedule that includes one incredibly difficult opponent and a bunch of cupcakes (as Georgia has) or to go a full month playing decent (if not elite) top-25 teams (as TCU has)?
The argument for TCU is strong — stronger, too, because the committee seemed to indicate a belief in the quality of the Big 12 with the rest of its rankings (Kansas State and Texas fared better in the CFP ranking than in the polls). So it’s unfortunate that confidence wasn’t extended to the Horned Frogs. Because while the opening rankings don’t often mean much in the big picture, they do set the stage. And as it stands, TCU has done as much as anyone save Tennessee, and it’s still not good enough to eclipse even a one-loss Alabama.
For Tennessee, Georgia, Michigan, Alabama and Ohio State, the season will determine who ends up in the top four — starting with this week’s games for those SEC schools. But for TCU, these rankings suggest it’s not just about winning. The Horned Frogs need to win bigger, win better and still hope the teams ranked higher will falter enough to convince the committee to change its perceptions.
2. UCLA (7-1), ranked 12th: How are the Bruins behind USC? The Trojans have played two decent teams: Utah and Oregon State. They nearly lost to the Beavers and they did lose to the Utes. But UCLA? The Bruins’ lone loss came to a top-10 foe (Oregon) and they beat Utah.
3. Tulane (7-1), ranked 19th: The good news is Tulane is the top-ranked Group of Five team. The bad news is the Green Wave are ranked six spots behind Kansas State, which has two losses, including one to… Tulane!
4. Michigan (8-0), ranked fifth: The Wolverines’ brutal nonconference schedule is their undoing. It’s interesting this comes after canceling a nonconference series with UCLA, so Jim Harbaugh can now pass NC State’s Dave Doeren on the “we’re really angry about a canceled game against the Bruins” power rankings.
5. Florida State (5-3), unranked: How did Texas get ranked at 5-3 but Florida State did not? The Longhorns lost three close games — to Alabama, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. So, too, have the Seminoles — to three ranked teams in Clemson, Wake Forest and NC State. But while Texas’ best win is against an average-at-best Oklahoma, FSU has a win over No. 10 LSU. Is a one-point loss to Alabama better than a one-point win over LSU? — David Hale
Picking the games
Caesars Sportsbook updated its national championship odds Tuesday and No. 1 Tennessee is now +1000 to win the title after starting the season at +10000. Ohio Sate is the betting favorite at +190, followed by Georgia (+200) and Alabama (+375). Here’s how ESPN’s writers see the semifinals going under the current ranking.
Andrea Adelson: Tennessee 35, Clemson 31; Georgia 30, Ohio State 27
Blake Baumgartner: Tennessee 38, Clemson 20; Ohio State 38, Georgia 35
Kyle Bonagura: Tennessee 38, Clemson 17; Georgia 35, Ohio State 31
Bill Connelly: Tennessee 48, Clemson 24; Georgia 28, Ohio State 27
Heather Dinich: Tennessee 42, Clemson 21; Ohio State 24, Georgia 21
Chris Low: Tennessee 42, Clemson 21; Ohio State 30, Georgia 27
Harry Lyles Jr: Tennessee 45, Clemson 27; Ohio State 27, Georgia 31
Ryan McGee: Tennessee 48, Clemson 24; Ohio State 30, Georgia 28
Adam Rittenberg: Tennessee 30, Clemson 27; Ohio State 34, Georgia 30
Alex Scarborough: Tennessee 45, Clemson 24; Georgia 35, Ohio State 34
Paolo Uggetti: Tennessee 41, Clemson 28; Georgia 34, Ohio State 37
Tom VanHaaren: Tennessee 31, Clemson 20; Georgia 31, Ohio State 38
Dave Wilson: Tennessee 42, Clemson 27; Georgia 33, Ohio State 29
How a 12-team playoff would look
Everyone with the power to expand the College Football Playoff wants the field to grow to 12 teams in time for the 2024 season.
But currently expansion is scheduled to begin in 2026, so while discussions continue on how to move up the timeline, we’re taking a look at how a 12-team playoff would look today based on the already-determined model released by the commissioners and presidents.
The field will be comprised of the selection committee’s six highest-ranked conference champions and their next six highest-ranked teams. The four highest-ranked conference champions will earn the top seeds and a first-round bye. The other eight teams will play in the first round, with the higher seeds hosting the lower seeds on campus or at another site of their choice.
Here’s what the playoff would look like if the 12-team format were in place today:
Seeds with byes
1. Tennessee
2. Ohio State
3. Clemson
4. TCU
Remaining seeds
(conference champs in bold)
5. Georgia
6. Michigan
7. Alabama
8. Oregon
9. USC
10. LSU
11. Ole Miss
12. Tulane
First-round games
No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Georgia
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Michigan
No. 10 LSU at No. 7 Alabama
No. 9 USC at No. 8 Oregon
Quarterfinal games
No. 9 USC/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Tennessee
No. 10 LSU/No. 7 Alabama winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 11 Ole Miss/No. 6 Michigan winner vs. No. 3 Clemson
No. 12 Tulane/No. 5 Georgia winner vs. No. 4 TCU
— Dinich
For teams that aren’t playing in their conference championship games, this is it — the final chance to make a lasting impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
For some contenders, like Ole Miss, their regular-season résumé is now complete, and what happens in the fifth ranking on Tuesday night should be a strong indicator of their final placement on Selection Day. Others, like Miami, are banking on hope and help — and most importantly, one more win. It all began with the Egg Bowl on Friday — a game that not only kept Ole Miss in the playoff, but also technically in the SEC race.
That’s right — this thing is far from over, so check back after each game to see how the results will impact the playoff as the day unfolds.
Texas 27, Texas A&M 17
Rivalry Week presented its first shakeup of the top four when No. 16 Texas beat No. 3 Texas A&M — but it might not be all that jarring in the fifth ranking. The Aggies will likely drop to the 4-6 range behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins including a 35-10 drubbing of … Texas. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama), and has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game. The question is just how far Texas A&M will fall now that it has joined No. 5 Texas Tech, No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Ole Miss in the one-loss club. The Aggies entered the weekend with a noticeable edge over Texas Tech in both strength of record (23 to 56) and strength of schedule (1 to 10). It’s possible the committee only drops the Aggies one spot, flipping them with Georgia, which means they’d still be in position to earn a first-round bye as the No. 4 seed. There would be a strong debate, though, about whether the Aggies, Texas Tech or Oregon, the latter which has impressed the committee lately by ranking in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency, deserves the highest seeding. The Aggies’ problem now is that they’d have to finish in the top four as an at-large team because they just got knocked out of the SEC title game.
While Texas now has arguably the best win in the country, it probably won’t be enough to catapult it into the top-10 as a three-loss team. Even with some upsets above them, it’s unlikely Texas would get higher than No. 12.
Indiana 56, Purdue 3
Indiana clinched a spot in the Big Ten championship game with its win against rival Purdue, locking in a CFP bid and beefing up its chances at keeping a first-round bye on Selection Day. The Hoosiers, who have been the committee’s No. 2 team in each of the first four rankings, still have a chance of grabbing the No. 1 spot in Tuesday’s ranking if Ohio State loses to Michigan. If the Buckeyes lose and Oregon wins Indiana will face Oregon in the Big Ten title game. If Michigan wins and Oregon loses the Hoosiers will face Michigan for the conference title.
The question is whether IU can maintain a top-four seed and a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up. If Indiana lost the title game, the committee would consider where their opponent was ranked and how close the game was. The Hoosiers would also be compared with other top one-loss teams, but playing a ranked opponent in the conference championship game — win or lose — would boost IU’s record strength by the committee’s metric.
Georgia 16, Georgia Tech 9
Georgia should keep its place as the committee’s top one-loss team following its win against rival Georgia Tech. Georgia’s Oct. 18 win against Ole Miss, along with their win at Tennessee and drubbing of Texas, impressed the committee. The Bulldogs’ consistency on offense and defense has also played well with the committee. Georgia’s first-round bye would only be in question at this point if it finishes as a two-loss SEC runner-up.
Barring an unusual combination of ACC results, No. 23 Georgia Tech will be out of the playoff at 9-3. The only way the Yellow Jackets can extend their playoff hope is through the ACC championship game. They entered the weekend with a 1.5% chance of making the game, according to ESPN Analytics.
Ole Miss 38, Mississippi State 19
With its win against rival Mississippi State on Friday, Ole Miss likely locked up a playoff spot and remains in a strong position to host a first-round home game. If Alabama loses to Auburn on Saturday, Ole Miss will clinch a spot in the SEC championship game. Even if it doesn’t, though, the one-loss Rebels should still be a CFP lock.
As for the uncertainty still looming around coach Lane Kiffin, if Ole Miss turns to an interim head coach for the playoff, the selection committee could consider that. CFP protocol states the group will consider “other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.” Ole Miss won’t miss the playoff because Kiffin left for another job, but it could get dinged a spot or two if the committee thinks the team won’t be the same without him.
Utah 31, Kansas 21
No. 13 Utah punctuated its résumé with a win against 5-7 Kansas, but it’s still unlikely to reach the playoff without multiple upsets of teams above it — especially after just being leapfrogged by No. 12 Miami in the latest CFP ranking. Even with a win, to reach the Big 12 championship game, Utah still needs Texas Tech to lose and for both BYU and Arizona State to win. The Utes’ best hope to reach the CFP is still as an at-large team.
Getting that bid isn’t inconceivable if a combination of two-loss teams above them lose. If Oklahoma, Alabama and Miami lose, it would be difficult for any of them to stay in the top 12 as three-loss teams. Utah would need at least two of them to lose to move into the top 10, which is where it would need to be to actually be seeded in the field. The No. 11 and No. 12 teams this year will be excluded during the seeding process to make room for the fourth- and fifth-highest ranked conference champions.
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Mark Schlabach
STARKVILLE, Miss. — Lane Kiffin said he’ll decide Saturday whether he will return as Ole Miss‘ coach in 2026 or take another job, presumably at LSU, which is trying to poach him from its SEC rival with a lucrative contract offer that will make him one of the highest-paid coaches in college football.
Kiffin, while speaking to reporters after the No. 7 Rebels’ 38-19 victory at Mississippi State in Friday’s Egg Bowl at Davis Wade Stadium, would only say that he’ll have to make a decision one way or the other, after Ole Miss athletics director Keith Carter and chancellor Glenn Boyce said they needed an answer by Saturday.
“I feel like I’ve got to,” Kiffin said.
When Kiffin was asked if he had made up his mind about where he’ll be coaching next season, he said, “Yeah, I haven’t. Maybe that surprises you. But, you know, I’ve got to do some praying and figure this thing out.”
Kiffin said he planned to attend his son’s high school playoff game in Tupelo, Mississippi, on Friday night. Knox Kiffin is Oxford High’s starting quarterback.
“Tonight, I’m going to go be a dad and watch a more important game to me,” Kiffin said.
Kiffin wasn’t sure what time he would make a decision Saturday.
“There’s a lot [that goes] into it,” Kiffin said. “It’s a hard decision. You guys have them all the time. You’ve got to make decisions about jobs you take and where you move, and we get paid a lot so I understand we’re under a lot of spotlight and scrutiny.”
Kiffin said he regretted not being able to speak to his father, Monte Kiffin, while trying to make one of the most important decisions of his career. The longtime NFL defensive coordinator died in July 2024. He was 84.
Kiffin, 50, has sought the advice of former Alabama coach Nick Saban and Las Vegas Raiders coach Pete Carroll, his former boss at USC, the past few weeks.
ESPN reported earlier Friday that Florida, which was also courting Kiffin, is now focused on other candidates in its search because the Gators believe he’s more interested in other opportunities.
Carter and Boyce met with Kiffin a week ago in Oxford, Mississippi, and the sides came to an understanding that Kiffin would make up his mind the day after the Egg Bowl.
If the Egg Bowl was Kiffin’s last game as Ole Miss’ coach, it was a fitting end to one of the most successful tenures in school history.
As speculation about Kiffin’s future continued to swirl over the past two weeks, the Rebels rolled past their rivals for their fifth win in the past six meetings in the heated series. The Rebels had 545 yards of offense, as quarterback Trinidad Chambliss passed for 359 yards with four touchdowns.
The Rebels (11-1, 7-1 SEC) all but secured a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff. They’ll have to wait another day to find out whether they’ll play in next week’s SEC championship game in Atlanta.
No. 3 Texas A&M would have to fall at No. 16 Texas on Friday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC) and No. 10 Alabama would have to lose at Auburn in Saturday’s Iron Bowl (7:30 p.m. ET/ABC) for the Rebels to clinch a spot in the SEC championship game.
And, of course, Ole Miss fans will be waiting Saturday to find out which coaches will be on the sideline for the CFP, which might begin with a first-round game at home on Dec. 19 or 20.
If Kiffin decides to leave for LSU, former New York Giants coach Joe Judge would likely serve as the Rebels’ interim coach in the CFP, sources told ESPN.
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