There’s something about the latest crypto crash that makes it different from previous downturns.
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The ongoing crypto winter is “only going to get worse” as the industry recalibrates to a higher interest rate world, according to the chief executive of blockchain firm Tezos.
Asked about the fall in price of many crypto assets this year, Kathleen Breitman said: “A lot of this was inflated on cheap money, and a lot of this was backed by basically, like, VCs trying to pump.”
“There was a lot of easy money going into the system and I think it was artificially stoking a number of different things, mainly valuations of these companies,” she told CNBC’s Karen Tso Wednesday at the Web Summit conference in Lisbon, Portugal.
Breitman cited NFT marketplace OpenSea, where trading volume plunged from $2.9 billion in September 2021 to $349 million in September 2022, according to data from Dune Analytics.
“Clearly there is a phenomenon that has kind of crested and gone away in a lot of these markets, but meanwhile they’re saddled with a $13 billion valuation,” Breitman said.
“So I think there’s a lot of cheap money that went in, valuations went super sky high, you had people scrambling to make those valuations justified in some form, usually through cheap tactics like yield farming, and now that the easy money’s gone away, all that’s left is we’re getting communities, I hope,” she continued.
On whether the pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes that economists expect next year could see crypto markets rally, Breitman said there would still be a shift in crypto and tech valuations being based on anticipatory benefits to actual user growth; and without the ability to keep using “cheap tactics” to get “easy come, easy go” users in the door.
“Crypto hasn’t been evaluated by that metric, and neither has technology in the last 10 years that we’ve had low interest rates,” Breitman told CNBC. “It remains to be seen, but basically I think what you’ll find is the things that are useful are going to thrive.”
“But that’s the small minority of crypto applications, whether people want to admit it or not.”
Tezos, which Breitman also co-founded, is a smart contract platform, like the better-known Ethereum, but that allows token holders to vote on changes to the platform before they are enacted every few months.
Usage of the network has increased on 2021, Breitman said, driven by demand from the art world, where digital artists are minting art on the blockchain and trading it. This use is providing one of the only sources of organic growth in the industry more broadly, she said.
The notion of the end of the era of easy money in crypto is one that analysts have been discussing in recent months amid the downturn.
Some industry figures believe the recent relative price stabilization of assets such as bitcoin, which has been trading between $18,000 and $25,000 for the last four months after experiencing massive volatility, is positive for the industry.
Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of crypto lender Nexo, previously told CNBC bitcoin’s performance was “a strong sign that the digital assets market has matured and is becoming less fragmented.”
The Motion Picture Association on Monday urged OpenAI to “take immediate and decisive action” against its new video creation model Sora 2, which is being used to produce content that it says is infringing on copyrighted media.
Following the Sora app’s rollout last week, users have been swarming the platform with AI-generated clips featuring characters from popular shows and brands.
“Since Sora 2’s release, videos that infringe our members’ films, shows, and characters have proliferated on OpenAI’s service and across social media,” MPA CEO Charles Rivkin said in a statement.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman clarified in a blog post that the company will give rightsholders “more granular control” over how their characters are used.
But Rivkin said that OpenAI “must acknowledge it remains their responsibility – not rightsholders’ – to prevent infringement on the Sora 2 service,” and that “well-established copyright law safeguards the rights of creators and applies here.”
OpenAI did not respond to a request for comment.
Concerns erupted immediately after Sora videos were created last week featuring everything from James Bond playing poker with Altman to body cam footage of cartoon character Mario evading the police.
Although OpenAI previously held an opt-out system, which placed the burden on studios to request that characters not appear on Sora, Altman’s follow-up blog post said the platform was changing to an opt-in model, suggesting that Sora would not allow the usage of copyrighted characters without permission.
However, Altman noted that the company may not be able to prevent all IP from being misused.
“There may be some edge cases of generations that get through that shouldn’t, and getting our stack to work well will take some iteration,” Altman wrote.
Copyright concerns have emerged as a major issue during the generative AI boom.
Disney and Universal sued AI image creator Midjourney in June, alleging that the company used and distributed AI-generated characters from their films and disregarded requests to stop. Disney also sent a cease-and-desist letter to AI startup Character.AI in September, warning the company to stop using its copyrighted characters without authorization.
Thoma Bravo co-founder Orlando Bravo said that valuations for artificial intelligence companies are “at a bubble,” comparing it to the dotcom era.
But one key difference in the market now, he said, is that large companies with “healthy balance sheets” are financing AI businesses.
Bravo’s private equity firm boasts more than $181 billion in assets under management as of June, and focuses on buying and selling enterprise tech companies, with a significant chunk of its portfolio invested in cybersecurity.
Bravo told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Tuesday that investors can’t value a $50 million annual recurring revenue company at $10 billion.
“That company is going to have to produce a billion dollars in free cash flow to double an investor’s money, ultimately,” he said. “Even if the product is right, even if the market’s right, that’s a tall order, managerially.”
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OpenAI recently finalized a secondary share sale that would value the ChatGPT-maker at $500 billion. The company is projected to make $13 billion in revenue for 2025.
Nvidia recently said it would invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, in part, to help the ChatGPT maker lease its chips and build out supercomputing facilities in the coming years.
Other public companies have soared on AI promises, with Palantir’s market cap climbing to $437 billion, putting it among the 20 most valuable publicly traded companies in the U.S., and AppLovin now worth $213 billion.
Even early-stage valuations are massive in AI, with Thinking Machines Lab notching a $12 billion valuation on a $2 billion seed round.
Despite the inflated numbers, Bravo emphasized that there’s a “big difference” between the dotcom collapse and the current landscape of AI.
“Now you have some really big companies and some big balance sheets and healthy balance sheets financing this activity, which is different than what happened roughly 25 years ago,” he said.
Oracle stock slipped 5% on Tuesday after a report from The Information that raised questions about the company’s plans to buy billions of Nvidia chips to rent as a cloud provider to clients like OpenAI.
Oracle had 14% gross margins on $900 million in sales in its Nvidia cloud business in the three months ending in August, according to the report, which cited internal documents. That’s significantly lower than Oracle’s overall gross margin of around 70%.
The report said that Oracle’s recent transformation into one of the most important cloud and artificial intelligence companies may run into profitability challenges because of how expensive Nvidia chips are and aggressive pricing on its AI chip rentals.
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In September, Oracle said that its backlog of cloud contracts, which it called remaining performance obligations, had jumped 359% in a year. It forecasted $144 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue in 2030, up from just over $10 billion in 2025.