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The Bank of England is expected to unveil the biggest interest rate rise since the 1980s today.

A hike of 0.75 percentage points is anticipated – pushing the base rate to 3%, levels that have not been seen since 2008.

If confirmed, this could push up mortgage bills for millions of people in the coming months.

Supermarket offers 1p ready meals – cost of living latest

This would also be the eighth time in a row that the Bank of England has hiked interest rates. Less than a year ago, the base rate was just 0.1%.

Earlier this month, the markets had predicted that today’s increase could be one whole percentage point – but sentiment has calmed since the mini-budget was reversed and Liz Truss resigned as prime minister.

The Bank of England is also set to release long-term inflation forecasts, which are expected to show that the cost of living next year will be much higher than its target of 2%.

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Official figures released in September showed inflation hit 10.1% – matching a 40-year high seen in July – with much of this increase driven by rising food costs.

Through these rate hikes, the Bank of England is trying to bring core inflation under control, which excludes more volatile elements such as petrol and energy prices.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank have warned they expect the BoE’s forecasts to show “the economic outlook has deteriorated further”, adding: “Conditioned on market pricing, the UK economy will likely fall into a deeper and more prolonged recession.”

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‘Black hole’ in finances explained

Firms face ‘desperately difficult decisions,’ Labour warns

This afternoon, Labour’s shadow chancellor will warn that the latest interest rate rise will have a huge impact on consumers and companies alike.

Speaking at the Anthropy conference in Cornwall, Rachel Reeves will say: “Rising interest rates will mean families with already stretched budgets will be hit by higher mortgage payments. It will mean higher financing costs for businesses.

“For many firms who have had a tough couple of years, this will mean desperately difficult decisions about whether to carry on.

“And it will mean profound implications for growth as demand is sucked out of the economy – and even those firms that are keeping their head above water face difficult decisions about whether to invest or expand.”

Yesterday, a new poll carried about by Ipsos for Sky News revealed that more than a quarter of people have started using their credit cards to buy food – and a fifth have borrowed money to adjust to rising prices this year.

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People putting food bills on credit

US also increases interest rates

The Bank of England’s decision will come a day after America’s central bank, the Federal Reserve, also confirmed that it will increase interest rates by 0.75 percentage points.

Wall Street fell sharply when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested the US base rate may need to go even higher than previously thought to tackle the worst inflation seen in decades.

He warned: “It’s very premature, in my view, to think about or to be talking about pausing our rate hikes. We have a ways to go.”

Mr Powell also said that the Federal Reserve would rather make a mistake of taking interest rates too high than easing too quickly, amid fears that a premature pullback could cause inflation to remain.

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Energy price cap: Government costs to raise bills from October

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Energy price cap: Government costs to raise bills from October

A larger than expected hike in the energy price cap from October is largely down to higher costs being imposed by the government.

The typical sum households face paying for gas and electricity when using direct debit is to rise by 2% – or £2.93 per month – to £1,755, the energy watchdog Ofgem announced.

The current price cap is £1,720 a year. A 1% increase had been widely forecast.

The latest bill settlement, covering the final quarter of the year until the next price review takes effect from January, will affect around 20 million households.

Money latest: Should I fix? Reaction to energy price cap shift

There are 14 million others, such as those on pre-payment meters, who will also see bills rise by a similar level.

Those on fixed deals, which are immune from price cap shifts until such time as the term ends, currently stands at 20 million.

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Wholesale prices – volatile since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine back in February 2022 – have been the main driver of rising bills.

But they are making little contribution to the looming increase.

Ofgem explained that government measures, such as the expansion of the warm home discount announced in June, were mainly responsible.

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Bills must rise to pay for energy transition

The discount is set to add £15 to the average annual bill.

It will provide £150 in support to 2.7 million extra people this year, bringing the total number of beneficiaries to six million.

The balance is made up from money needed to upgrade the power network.

Tim Jarvis, director general of markets at Ofgem, said: “While there is still more to do, we are seeing signs of a healthier market. There are more people on fixed tariffs saving themselves money, switching is rising as options for consumers increase, and we’ve seen increases in customer satisfaction, alongside a reduction in complaints.

“While today’s change is below inflation, we know customers might not be feeling it in their pockets. There are things you can do though – consider a fixed tariff as this could save more than £200 against the new cap. Paying by direct debit or smart pay as you go could also save you money.

“In the longer term, we will continue to see fluctuations in our energy prices until we are insulated from volatile international gas markets. That’s why we continue to work with government and the sector to diversify our energy mix to reduce the reliance on markets we do not control.”

The looming price cap lift will leave bills around the same sort of level they were in October last year but it will take hold at a time when overall inflation is higher.

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Inflation has gone up again – this explains why

Food price increases, also partly blamed on government measures such as the national insurance contributions hike imposed on employers, have led the main consumer prices index to a current level of 3.8%.

It is predicted to rise to at least 4% in the coming months, further squeezing household budgets.

Ministers argue that efforts to make the UK less reliant on natural gas, through investment in renewable power sources, will help bring down bills in future.

Energy minister Michael Shanks said: “We know that any price rise is a concern for families. Wholesale gas prices remain 75% above their levels before Russia invaded Ukraine. That is the fossil fuel penalty being paid by families, businesses and our economy.

“That is why the only answer for Britain is this government’s mission to get us off the rollercoaster of fossil fuel prices and onto clean, homegrown power we control, to bring down bills for good.

“At the same time, we are determined to take urgent action to support vulnerable families this winter. That includes expanding the £150 Warm Home Discount to 2.7 million more households and stepping up our overhaul of the energy system to increase protections for customers.”

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Energy price cap: The changing face of your bill as poverty and climate demands grow

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Energy price cap: The changing face of your bill as poverty and climate demands grow

The small increase in domestic energy bills announced today confirms that prices have stabilised since the ruinous spikes that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but remain 40% higher than before the war – around 20% in real terms – with little chance of falling in the medium-term.

Any increase in the annual cost of gas and electricity is unwelcome. But, at 2%, it is so marginal that in practice many consumers will not notice it unless they pay close attention to their consumption.

Regulator Ofgem uses a notional figure for “typical” annual consumption of gas and electricity to capture the impact of price change, which shows a £34 increase to £1,755.

Money latest: Should I fix? Reaction to energy price cap shift

At less than £3 a month it’s a small increase that could be wiped out by a warm week in October, doubled by an early cold snap, and only applies to those households that pay a variable rate for their power.

That number is declining as 37% of customers now take advantage of cheaper fixed rate deals that have returned to the market, as well as direct debit payments, options often not available to those struggling most.

Ofgem’s headline number is useful as a guide but what really counts is how much energy you use, and the cap the regulator applies to the underlying unit prices and standing charges.

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Here the maximum chargeable rate for electricity rises from 25.73p per kWh to 26.35p, while the unit cost of gas actually falls, from 6.33p per kWh to 6.26p. Daily standing charges for both increase however, by a total of 7p.

That increase provides an insight into the factors that will determine prices today and in future.

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Energy price cap rises by 2%

The biggest factor remains the international price of wholesale gas. It was what drove prices north of £4,000 a year after the pipelines to Russia were turned off, and has dragged them back down as Norway and liquid natural gas imported from the US, Australia and Qatar filled the gap.

The long-term solution is to replace reliance on gas with renewable and low-carbon sources of energy but shifting the balance comes with an up-front cost shared by all bill payers. So too is the cost of energy poverty that has soared since 2022.

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Bills must rise to pay for energy transition

This price cap includes an increase to cover “balancing costs”. These are fees typically paid to renewable generators to stop producing electricity because the national grid can’t always handle the transfer of power from Scotland, where the bulk is produced, to the south, where the lion’s share is consumed.

There is also an increase to cover the expansion of the Warm Homes Discount, a £150 payment extended to 2.7 million people by the government during the tortuous process of withdrawing and then partially re-instating the winter fuel payment to pensioners.

And while the unit price of gas has actually fallen, the daily standing charge, which covers the cost of maintaining the gas network, has risen by 4p, somewhat counterintuitively because we are using less.

While warmer weather and greater efficiency of homes means consumption has fallen, the cost of maintaining the network remains, and has to be shared across fewer units of gas. Expect that trend to be magnified as gas use declines but remains essential to maintaining electricity supply at short notice on a grid dominated by renewables.

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Thames Water agrees £122m fine payment plan – as future hangs in balance

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Thames Water agrees £122m fine payment plan - as future hangs in balance

Cash-strapped Thames Water has agreed a payment plan with regulators to cover off a record fine that threatened to exacerbate its financial difficulties.

Britain’s biggest supplier was to pay £24.5m of the £122.7m sum by 30 September under the agreement.

Ofwat, which imposed the penalty in May for breaches of its rules over sewage discharges and dividend payments, said the balance would be due once a rescue financing deal was agreed or if it was placed into a special administration regime by the government.

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Sky News revealed earlier this month that Steve Reed, the environment secretary, had signed off on the appointment of FTI Consulting to assist with contingency planning for putting Thames into a special administration regime.

It further meant that FTI was the frontrunner to act as the company’s administrator, should Thames fail to secure its private sector bailout.

Sky’s City editor Mark Kleinman said that the deal on the table, that would see Thames’s lenders injecting about £5bn of new capital and writing off roughly £12bn of value across its capital structure, was potentially dependent on Ofwat’s handling of the water firm’s fines.

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Administrator lined up for Thames Water

Thames has argued it needs financial space to guarantee its turnaround.

Thames initially had until 20 August to pay the £122.7m sum, but it requested the agreement of a payment plan.

Ofwat’s deal with Thames only kicks the can down the road.

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Water regulator Ofwat to be scrapped

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The regulator said on Wednesday that it had set a “backstop date” of 31 March 2030 for the remaining penalties.

Thames Water said the fines would not be paid for out of customer bills.

It added: “The company continues to work closely with stakeholders to secure a market-led recapitalisation which delivers for customers and the environment as soon as practicable.”

The agreement was announced as the water watchdog prepares to be abolished under government plans to bolster oversight of the industry.

Lynn Parker, senior director of enforcement at Ofwat, said: “This payment plan continues to hold Thames Water to account for their failures but also recognises the ongoing equity raise and recapitalisation process.

“Our focus remains on ensuring that the company takes the right steps to deliver a turnaround in its operational performance and strengthen its financial resilience to the benefit of customers.”

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